Quick Fix 59: Bachelor--Roshar edition!

[Ashbringer he/him]

I'm confused... but I guess vote on not me is better than vote on me.

Just now, Amanuensis said:

Chinese Fire Drill (need a term that removes Chinese tbh, don't like the implications).

Basically last minute mass switching like I did in the MR's C1 (on Karn).

Bandwagon was the word I used most

Edited March 10, 2022 by Ashbringer

[Archer he/him]

58 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Didn’t pay strong enough attention in tge LG/BT I guess.

I need to play a lesbian character through LG/BT/Q(f) games now, thanks for the side quest.

 

List of who's hanging around right now: Experience, Illwei, Aman, Kas, Ash, Mat, Striker, Orolok and two spectators(?) which always makes me nervous (hi TJ and Stick!)

I should be out of NK consideration, but especially in an e!Striker world, I’m an exe possibility, so I’m gonna dump this here now.

In a low information C1 with even pressure, I theorize that:

-every active elim will vote… on a villager and not on the person being NKed. This maximizes their chances of casting votes that will protect themselves from side trains that unexpectedly become the winning trains. Distancing votes are too dangerous to be viable.

-the elims are likely to piggyback on villagers with known voting intentions, but will only vote together if necessary because they’d like to save that option for later rounds, or if a strong wagon emerges they’d like to throw their weight behind.

-the elims will attempt to steer the exe in a predictable direction with their discussion and seek certainty.

By the way, I don’t plan on voting today. :P. I’ll welcome speculation about why to kick off the next round. 

Village read on Aman for pretending to diversify the wagons. Sticking with the e!JNV read because elims lean into arguments like that all the time. Not a fan of there being serious leading wagons because it messes up my strategy but I think elims are more likely to announce their vote in thread than not so I'm hoping some of it is elim voting, not villagers doing the work for them, if that makes any sense. Striker being evil makes absolute sense, us catching Striker does not, and that's why I'm not super optimistic right now. But I think he's a valid choice. So would TUA. Mat and Kas are not. I really hope no one "RNG" votes for them but village cred if you do lol

[+Lotus she/her]

Andddd the cycle is closed. Please bear with me as I get the next one up

[Mat he/him]

4 minutes ago, Experience said:

Probably because at least one of said train riders has stated no reason whatsoever to do so? :P.

 

1 minute ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

Experience voting on Ashbringer

Wait a minute

[StrikerEZ he/him]

Whelp, see y'all on the other side. (Or not)

[+Lotus she/her]

"So, who are you impressed with, Adolin?"
"Kelath and Malia made a really good impression on me, but I'm not super attached to them, you know? Open to other opportunities."

"And who isn't likely to get that last rose?"

"I'm not sure. We'll have to see."

The woman lined up, some of them having already recieved their roses. Adolin called out their names one by one... until there were no roses left.

Lucy cried and ran out of the room. Vanala just stood there, stunned, before the producers led her off screen.

- - - 

Stricker was not given a rose (voted out)! They were a Ghostblood Spy!

Matrim's dice was not given a rose (killed)! They were a Honest participant!

- - -

 

Vote Count: 

Stricker (8): Kasimir, Matrim's dice, Devotary, Ash, Amanuensis, Illwei, Bort, Orlok

Ash (2): Experience, Stricker

Illwei (1): The Unknown Aon

JNV (1): Maillwi

Experience (1): Thaidakar the Ghostblood

Archer(1): JNV

 

- - -

Adolin is going on group dates with the participants! Feel free to RP what goes down!

- - - 

 

Player list: 

 

1. Kasimir-- Keredin

2. Matrim's Dice--Lucy  honest participant 

3. The Unknown Aon--Floradel

4. Devotary--Kelath

5. JNV--Aracha

6. Archer--Nid

7. Experience--Zara

8 .Stricker--Vanala Ghostblood spy

9. Ash--Tailia

10. Maillwi--Malila

11. Thaidakar the Ghostblood--Salana

12. Amanuensis--Awoman

13. Illwei--Albert

14. Bort--Bortington the Blind

14. Orlok

[Mailliw73 he/him]

36 minutes ago, Experience said:

Literally got nothing, including time.

I... think I'll drop a vote on Ash this turn.

This feels pretty off to me. Not sure why but yeah. I meant to post this at the end of the cycle, but I had to run to school and didn’t realize till I had already gotten there and the cycle was up that I had forgotten to actually push post. So here it is now. I’ll be back after class. 

[Experience he/him]

D:

Ash is probably? good because Stri(c?)ker voted on them, but that was most likely just survival. Need to look through who people were claiming to vote on.

Thaid wondering why you voted on me specifically?

Also.

@Archer, how come you didn't vote?

[Ashbringer he/him]

Well, this is going to be fun for me.

[Amanuensis he/him]

So who bussed?

[Kasimir he/him]

I see I'm not the only one enjoying the secret voting mechanics here 

Shout-out to @Thaidakar the Ghostblood, @Mailliw73, both of whom absolutely did not signal this at all as well.

So, long story short - did not like the way Striker cast sus on Mat for doing what seemed to be a perfectly natural re-eval process and one that I myself had gone through, hmmed over Aman's CTA post, and YOLO-voted Striker in the PM. I decided to be more bearish on Striker in the thread to see if anyone would explicitly talk me onto Striker (or onto a side train), and publicly advertised my side-train vote pool to see if anyone would bite. (Nope.) EoC convinced me to stay put as I wanted to settle the issue and felt it was a decent enough place to go for a C1 vote. I think the great thing about anon voting is that if you sound determined enough and signal your pool, it places some vote pressure on the players you've identified, even if you have no intention of actually final voting them  

So I channelled my inner kel I guess.

With eight votes on Striker, I think it's safe to say he was bussed. Further analysis will wait until a more sane hour.

@Lotus Are the votes in any particular order? Do we know who voted when? 

Be good if we can get metadata off that - vote progression analysis tends to be more helpful than just raw votes.

[Archer he/him]

*flips table* why can't you all just accept that we'll never catch an elim C1 and we shouldn't... even.... welp. 

Good work. XD. Disregard everything I posted near rollover because the possibility of bussing messes everything up. Except for maybe giving village cred to active non voters. *checks* Am I the only one who didn't vote??

By the way, I clocked Devo and Mailliw checked the thread close to rollover but didn't post. Elims might have avoided doing so because they needed to vote in their PM and the Shard has a 30 second antispam filter. So, mild sus on them. 

1 minute ago, Experience said:

 

@Archer, how come you didn't vote?

No no, that was my question for you. Why didn't I vote? 

I think the best approach here is to look at early interactions with Striker, before they came under much pressure. Then assume the elims pulled the bus trigger at some point, probably around the time Striker moved to Ashbringer. Psst orlok help us out here

2 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Be good if we can get metadata off that - vote progression analysis tends to be more helpful than just raw votes.

XD. Sorry bro, I don't think you'll get any help like that. 

[Kasimir he/him]

17 minutes ago, Archer said:

XD. Sorry bro, I don't think you'll get any help like that. 

I'm torn between wanting to yell at that prospect and wanting to praise the beautiful, beautiful colours >>

Edited to add:

Actually, Archer:

17 minutes ago, Archer said:

*flips table* why can't you all just accept that we'll never catch an elim C1 and we shouldn't... even.... welp. 

Why do you say this?

I recall you've said it before, and this is against a strong Village trend of having at least one Elim CW C1 for a while now. This was in part the motivation behind going for Gorilla in AG8 - precisely because, as you noted, we now needed to check the CWs due to Elim CWs popping up C1 with surprising frequency. Tuatara being the obvious case off the top of my head, as well as Crocodile/Kangaroo in AG7.

You've noted this as a trend before, even.

Edited March 10, 2022 by Kasimir

[Amanuensis he/him]

48 minutes ago, Lotus said:

Stricker was not given a rose (voted out)! They were a Ghostblood Spy!

For what it's worth, sorry Stricker! I gave you hope when I had no intention of switching. Just glad that for once my D1 tunnel was on an elim

48 minutes ago, Lotus said:

Matrim's dice was not given a rose (killed)! They were a Honest participant!

Lowkey upset about this kill  Mat's died C1 a lot recently, hasn't he?

48 minutes ago, Lotus said:

Stricker (8): Kasimir, Matrim's dice, Devotary, Ash, Amanuensis, Illwei, Bort, Orlok

Ash (2): Experience, Stricker

Illwei (1): The Unknown Aon

JNV (1): Maillwi

Experience (1): Thaidakar the Ghostblood

Archer(1): JNV

Possibility of bus makes me think 4 elims might not be as unrealistic as I initially thought.

Assuming 3:12 or 4:11 start, a 100% pure Stricker lynch is feasible, but idk how plausible.

Did any Villagers believe that Stricker might not get exed at the end of the previous turn? I did have doubts - I thought the exe would be a lot closer, at least - but I always have doubts, especially about exes I'm leading.

@Kasimir, @Devotary of Spontaneity, @Ashbringer, @Illwei, @Bort, @Orlok Tsubodai, could you all tell us your exact reasoning for voting Stricker, and perhaps the exact time you submitted the vote in your PMs (pending confirmation from @Araris Valerian that it's okay)? Assuming that doesn't cross a line, the timing of your votes could be really important in determining your own alignment (in the same way that we'd analyze when players voted in a public vote game). I would imagine that the decision to bus Stricker didn't come until very near the end. For that reason, Bort looks Village imo since he's not been online in 11 hours.

Quote

1. Kasimir
2. Matrim's Dice
3. The Unknown Aon
4. Devotary
5. JNV
6. Archer
7. Experience
8. StrikerEZ
9. Ashbringer
10. Mailliw
11. Thaidakar the Ghostblood
12. Amanuensis
13. Illwei
14. Bort
15. Orlok

I think I'm fairly comfortable with this as my D1 worldview. There's a little weirdness from Ash that means I'll reevaluate later and JNV could fit the bill of an elim MLing Archer depending on how wrong I am in my assessment, but willing to give them the green for now. Kas, Devo, and Orlok are all yellow out of respectful uncertainty. I guess Mailliw should be yellow too since I apparently V!read him for something he'd do from either alignment (being pro-mechanics) but can look into that more after seeing where he votes today.

This is my reads list from yesterday btw.

48 minutes ago, Lotus said:

Adolin is going on group dates with the participants! Feel free to RP what goes down!

@Kasimir since we're the only males (I think) maybe we should do our group date together I need to RP anyway, but couldn't last turn due to time crunch.

ED1T:

36 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

So, long story short - did not like the way Striker cast sus on Mat for doing what seemed to be a perfectly natural re-eval process and one that I myself had gone through, hmmed over Aman's CTA post, and YOLO-voted Striker in the PM. I decided to be more bearish on Striker in the thread to see if anyone would explicitly talk me onto Striker (or onto a side train), and publicly advertised my side-train vote pool to see if anyone would bite. (Nope.) EoC convinced me to stay put as I wanted to settle the issue and felt it was a decent enough place to go for a C1 vote. I think the great thing about anon voting is that if you sound determined enough and signal your pool, it places some vote pressure on the players you've identified, even if you have no intention of actually final voting them  

So I channelled my inner kel I guess.

With eight votes on Striker, I think it's safe to say he was bussed. Further analysis will wait until a more sane hour.

@Lotus Are the votes in any particular order? Do we know who voted when? 

Be good if we can get metadata off that - vote progression analysis tends to be more helpful than just raw votes.

Maybe should have read your post before I wrote mine haha. Great minds and all that

Edited March 10, 2022 by Amanuensis

[+Lotus she/her]

51 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

@lotus Are the votes in any particular order? Do we know who voted when? 

Votes are in no particular order

[---]

I don't remember when I decided to vote on Striker, if someone was wanting to know that.

It was a mix of things like the village read on me, defensiveness, and the reads list which felt forced at times, like I believe someone else pointed out.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

35 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

(pending confirmation from @Araris Valerian that it's okay)?

That should be fine, like Lotus said, the votes aren't in a particular order and there is no way to confirm whether a player is being honest about such a claim. And I suppose that if anyone's forgotten already, feel free to bother me about anything that is bothering you.

[Archer he/him]

Did some backreading. I'm guessing that the post Striker made where he pinged everyone marks when he knew he would die. Pinging everyone gives bussers an excuse to shift their votes.

Ee means possible elim-elim interaction. Nee means not e-e with the person mentioned in the observation. E and v should be obvious. In approximate order of most villagery to least:

Aman:

-Criticized Striker’s reads list (lock village, probably wasn’t NKed because the elims are nice, but don’t expect them to survive much longer)

Archer:

-Striker voted me (lock village)

Bort:

-Striker suggested focussing on the active players about (ee)

-First line was Striker sus (v)

Kas:

-Moved from me to JNV when Striker was working on a mix of me (nee)

-Disagreed with Striker’s read of Mat (which I think is why Mat got killed, Striker and them had very e/v interactions) (nee)

Illwei:

-Striker defended them against Aman’s accusations, said looks more like a genuine villager working things out (ee)

-“Doesn't that imply that you generally look bad, not just related to how Archer flips?” to Ashbringer (nee)

-Mat trusted Illwei so he’d be a bad NK choice

Maillwi:

-Striker suggested focussing on the active players about (ee)

-Doesn’t really engage in the suspicion throwing part of the game, even when it would have been helpful to the elims (v)

Devo:

-Answered Thaid’s salamander question (nee)

“The slight good read I have of Devo comes from her being helpful with looking at the past game and trying to call out Archer’s change in stance since then. Granted, that is not necessarily alignment indicative, but it feels like a lot of work for an elim to go through.” – Striker  (nee because this is a bad reason. Or ee)

-Not ee with JNV because posted a vote on Striker shortly after JNV’s vote on me. Late enough in round it could be bussing but I’m leaning towards not

TUA:

-Striker defended them against Aman’s accusations (ee)

-“Might vote for Illwei, don’t have many reads rn” (nee with Striker or Illwei)

Thaidakar:

-null

Experience:

-Asked if they were okay, but it’s NAI because they were ready to die then.

-“Literally got nothing, including time. I... think I'll drop a vote on Ash this turn.” (similar to Ash’s post – ee)

Orlok:

-Striker suggested focussing on the active players about (ee)

-“Gut dislike of XP” (nee)

-“Haven’t properly reassessed Ashbringer… [will vote for Archer/Striker]” (this post felt the most like a bus)

JNV:

-Striker didn’t criticize their vote post even though I felt it was flawed (ee)

-Vote on me helped Striker’s position (ee)

Ashbringer:

-Poke voted Devo, but it was early round and had an easy out (ee?)

-Striker backtracked on this, but initially presented e!Archer/v!Ash arguments. (Both are ee)

-Striker waffled on them in their reads list (ee)

-Wanted to vote for me, who I’m assuming was the designated ML

-“I may just not vote and see what happens. I'm too confused.” (e)

[Amanuensis he/him]

So for anyone intent on analyzing Striker's opening readslist, here you go:

Spoiler

21 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

Vanala's notes on the Alethi Women (and men, and axehound) seeking the heart of Adolin Kholin
Shattered Plains, Alethkar, circa 1174

Day One

• Keredin: One of the men of our little group of wannabe spouses. Seems far too interested in swords for my taste, but Adolin would love him for that. Be wary of that fact. As for his thoughts on the murderers, if they do exist, I agree with him that Nid's random strategy of randomly searching for the murderes does not make sense. And if we did do that, why would it only be effective the first day? I like Keredin's thoughts, however, he has not said much else since, so I need to be wary of him still.
• Lucy the axehound: They seemed to get very aggressive with Nid when they suggested their strategy, but then backed off for no apparent reason. Does the axehound know more than we do? I'll have to keep an eye on that creature. 
• Floradel: Responded to Nid's suggestion of being a possibility for being searched very strangely. They seemed skittish, and retaliated quickly, saying they would also search them. Perhaps this is a wannabe murderer being put off by pressure before they have even done anything? Strange that they also agreed with Nid's plan, despite Nid's accusations of them. Should investigate further.
• Kelath: She has not shown her face much this day, but she has made some astute observations. Especially in regards to Nid and his history. I don't have many other thoughts about her, so perhaps she is not a murderer.
• Archa: A woman with common sense in this group. I greatly agree with her thoughts on Nid, and would most likely look along with them at Nid for further inquiries about the murderers in the future. I would not think that someone who was about to commit murders would so whole-heartedly disagree with someone like Nid publicly.
• Nid: I have appreciated her later points, but I cannot, nay, shall not get over her first few comments. Keeping things a secret and hiding what we believe and who we are going to search in the event of a murder is not the way to go. It only helps further the murderers' own goals of keeping themselves a secret. Having as much accountability in the thread as possible is the best course of action. And I feel like Nid's growing amenability is the sign of a murderer realizing they have made a mistake. 
• Zara: While she has spent most of today sleeping so far, I did like what she said once she considered us worthy of waking up for. As much as I hate to admit it. She is right that having accountability for all of our actions is how we are going to find these murderers. If anyone can say something one day and then do something else the next day, then there is nothing stopping the murderers from doing whatever they want whenever they want.
• Tailia: I have found most of what they have said fairly agreeable. I appreciate that they are holding themselves accountable for their own actions. Do not understand why they have been defending Nid's ideas, however. So I am fairly confused by this woman. I would still prefer to investigate Nid further before investigating Tailia.
• Salana: She has introduced herself to Adolin, not even to us fellow suitors, and was confused by a joke of Nid's. Poor woman. I cannot tell if she is playing her own confusion up or is genuinely confused. I do wish she would interact with us more.
• Awoman: This man has mostly been making jokes with the women and men here in the suite. But when he has not been doing that, I have agreed with him. He seems perfectly amenable to me. I am amused by the fact that he called me by the wrong name earlier, but I have not yet gotten an explanation for how it happened.
• Albert: This supposed cup has made some good points about how many murderers we might be dealing with. They are also making several points about the nature of our votes in this game for Adolin's love being secret that I agree with strongly. It is odd that they are accusing an axehound of being a murderer, but, well, I do find the axehound suspicious as well. 

Mailia, Bortlington, and the mysterious stranger known as Locke have not shown their faces in the suite yet. Perhaps one of them is a murderer? But it does not serve us today to look at them too closely. Better to focus on people who have been seen and have spoken.

Also my reply, which I translated character names to player names / interpreted meaning:

Spoiler

20 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Quote

 

Note that colors are my interpretations and may not be 100% accurate.

Yellow = Null, Orange = Sus, Green = Trust, Black = Inactive

1. Kasimir: Agrees with Kas' take on Archer's random strat, but "needs to be wary of him still" due to not being active beyond that.
2. Matrim: Suspects Mat for initially being opposed to Archer's random strat only to back off shortly after.
3. TUA: Agreed with me (tbh I just pointed it out, don't actually think TUA is sus for this) that they reacted strongly to Archer saying he might be voting TUA.
4. Devotary: Points out that of her few posts, Devo's were "astute," and goes to suggest not having more to say about Devo means their probably not a murderer.
5. JNV: Agrees with JNV's opening post and supports further investigation of Archer (without voting for Archer themselves). Believes elims would not enter the thread this aggressively.
6. Archer: Appreciates later points but refuses to look past earlier ones. Takes the stance that Archer is backtracking after making a mistake.
7. Experience: Only says their right about vote accountability, but doesn't seem to have a read on him. ("As much as I hate to admit it." Why hate? Admit what?)
8. Ashbringer: Finds most of what Ash has said as agreeable + appreciates Ash is holding himself accountable, but doesn't understand why he's defending Archer's proposal. Suggests that if Archer is elim, Ash requires further scrutiny.
9. Mailliw: Hasn't posted until now. Side-eyes for inactivity so far but wants to focus on the talkers.
10. Thaidakar: Basically gleans nothing from Thaid's few posts, but instead of susing Thaid for posting thrice and vanishing without participating more, just says "I wish she would interact with us more."
11. Amanuensis: I'm assuming I'm green because apparently I've said things Striker agreed with (TUA call out) and said nothing that he didn't agree with? @StrikerEZ Lotus has you as Stricker in the player list so that's why I made the @Stricker joke.
12. Illwei: Agrees with Illwei's takes on elim numbers, vote accountability, and Mat vote. Can assume this means v!read too.
13. Bort: Hasn't posted. Side-eyes for inactivity so far but wants to focus on the talkers.
14. Orlok: Hasn't posted. Side-eyes for inactivity so far but wants to focus on the talkers.

 

Okay so, I still am up for exeing Thaid but Striker is by far the riper option. Here's why:

• I believe Archer is Village, which Striker does not
• I believe (most) elims would stand against Archer's proposition for "vote accountability" reasons because it looks village
• I also believe Mat is Village (particularly because he reevaluated and backtracked)
• I don't think TUA's reaction to Archer is sus, but an elim certainly might jump on it because they're looking for maximum MLs
• Really weird read of Devo that I can't parse (might be cause RP + Striker forced himself to give thoughts on everyone, but very off to me)
• I don't quite have a strong read of Ash yet but I definitely don't like Striker implying Ash's alignment is tied to Archer's
• I think there's a good chance Thaid rolled elim this game so the fact Striker only encouraged Thaid to post more without taking a stance feels potentially E/E
• I'm always sus of people who v-read me early when I'm a villager. Villagers are more paranoid of me. Elims want to pocket me.
• I was previously thinking Illwei might be a wolf for all the reasons Striker agrees with her, so another E/E sitch
• Despite posting this big pseudo-reads list and supporting vote accountability, Striker did not vote

Think that about covers everything.

NGL I'm a lil impressed at how quickly I jumped on him  something like a 1hour difference between reading his post, thinking and writing, then posting mine.

Some thoughts in retrospect:

• TUA looks village imo (ML opportunity, like I pointed out)
• Ash read continues to be very weird so could be E/E distancing or ML set up - anyone care to see if others were suspecting Ash at the time?
• Still not loving the v!read of Illwei but could be born from TMI like it was for me - would like others thoughts on Illwei
• Still convinced Thaid is an inactive partner given how I read Striker's read

9 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

That should be fine, like Lotus said, the votes aren't in a particular order and there is no way to confirm whether a player is being honest about such a claim. And I suppose that if anyone's forgotten already, feel free to bother me about anything that is bothering you.

Awesome, thank you

Edited March 10, 2022 by Amanuensis

[Ashbringer he/him]

I decided late with ~5-10 minutes until end of cycle. Mostly self-preservation, but the Ash-Archer joining he tunneled on / doubled down on also piqued my interest.

Also my original poke vote wasn’t on Devotary. Never said it was 

[Kasimir he/him]

49 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Lowkey upset about this kill  Mat's died C1 a lot recently, hasn't he?

Uh...Off the top of my head, starting from end last year/to this year, there have been four games: AG8, MR56, LG83, BT1. He got C1ed in exactly one of the games, but at least I'm quietly grateful his final post helped me to revise my suspicions, even if I accidentally went onto Karn anyway instead of Stick. Sigh. Huh, there's another one. Stick was absolutely another C1 Elim CW. Add that to the tally, Archer.

49 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

@Kasimir, @Devotary of Spontaneity, @Ashbringer, @Illwei, @Bort, @Orlok Tsubodai, could you all tell us your exact reasoning for voting Stricker, and perhaps the exact time you submitted the vote in your PMs (pending confirmation from @Araris Valerian that it's okay)? Assuming that doesn't cross a line, the timing of your votes could be really important in determining your own alignment (in the same way that we'd analyze when players voted in a public vote game). I would imagine that the decision to bus Stricker didn't come until very near the end. For that reason, Bort looks Village imo since he's not been online in 11 hours.

Pending confirmation from Araris, yeah. I more or less highlighted my reasoning in my post: I generally agreed with your CTA post, but in the hmm way that accompanies strong C1 pushes from players who - well, yeah, look, I'm just usually paranoid when a player who is a deadly Elim (persuasive, unlikely for me to detect off the bat) is asking me (general to be fair) to vote for X, even if I pragmatically think he's V. I think I ascribe that to negative formative experiences in SE, as everyone is very familiar with by now  It wasn't anywhere near as bad as how I freaked out when you kept trying to get me and everyone to go on Archer in MR56 C3 but still it gave me pause.

But the point that swung me, or that I found decisive for me was the way he painted Mat as sus for re-evaluating his assessment of Archer's plan. I'd gone through that exact same thought process so obviously did not find it Evil and just found it a natural reaction. That with the CTA made me feel it was worth plopping down a YOLO vote on Striker (so you can roughly guess the time interval, even if Araris doesn't allow timestamps.) [If this is helpful, shortly after this. Edit: Got ninjaed by Araris, so this was 1027hrs my time, two minutes after the post I just linked.]

Honestly I wasn't dead sold because it was C1 and sometimes it just feels like you're (general you) tunnelling and I know I have a tendency to overfocus on stuff and then ML players on that basis, but subsequent interactions just didn't look all that better (see: lack of fog of war), and ultimately I felt: A. it was a decent enough reason for a C1 vote (as C1 votes are), B. despite inducement to Archer and Ash, with myself being more amenable to Ash, I just wanted to get the Striker flip, so I didn't bother changing.

49 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Did any Villagers believe that Stricker might not get exed at the end of the previous turn? I did have doubts - I thought the exe would be a lot closer, at least - but I always have doubts, especially about exes I'm leading.

I honestly thought it would be tighter due to fog of war about where the votes would go, even though people were signalling where they would likely end up, and with Archer and Ash seemingly coming live as options as well. Part of that may be due to the fact I was aware I was being a bit sneaky about my own vote, and so acknowledged the possibility that everyone else might be wanting to be sneaky too.

49 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

@Kasimir since we're the only males (I think) maybe we should do our group date together I need to RP anyway, but couldn't last turn due to time crunch.

Keredin is down :eyes:

49 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Assuming 3:12 or 4:11 start, a 100% pure Stricker lynch is feasible, but idk how plausible.

I mean, the V/V trains in LG83 were all pure Villagers, but what would the team profile even look like, for a 100% pure Striker lynch? I'd immediately look at Araris but it's clear he's not playing this game (hi Mr IM sir ), and the one rule about Evil Araris is that everytime Evil Araris steps into a game, the gods flip a coin, and the world holds its breath to see how the coin will land  

29 minutes ago, Lotus said:

Votes are in no particular order

Oof. Alright, let's hope the timestamp thing works. I want my vote progression analysis  

@Experience, @The Unknown Aon, @Mailliw73, @Thaidakar the Ghostblood, @JNV - If the timestamp thing goes through, care to share your timestamps too? Might as well get a holistic picture of the votes.

Edited to add 2:

As I was putting in Security Officer level effort (not sorry, I'm just worn out), my reads list boiled down to a coarse-grained two pronged list:

Quote

Won't Lynch: <Archer, Aman, Orlok, Mat, Bort, Maili, Devo>

Don't Care: <Thaid, Illwei, JNV, Striker, TUA, Ash, Experience>

Aman and Orlok for policy reasons; Bort and Maili for returnee reasons, hemmed and hawed over Devo but just liked her post enough to chunk her up there even though I intellectually know E!Devo has led me on a merry chase many times.

Edited March 10, 2022 by Kasimir
formatting

[Ashbringer he/him]

49 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

@Kasimir, @Devotary of Spontaneity, @Ashbringer, @Illwei, @Bort, @Orlok Tsubodai, could you all tell us your exact reasoning for voting Stricker, and perhaps the exact time you submitted the vote in your PMs (pending confirmation from @Araris Valerian that it's okay)?

Reasoning was up above-ish, exact time was 10:54

[Mailliw73 he/him]

2 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

@Experience, @The Unknown Aon, @Mailliw73, @Thaidakar the Ghostblood, @JNV - If the timestamp thing goes through, care to share your timestamps too? Might as well get a holistic picture of the votes.

Yep, my PM says 20 hours ago, so 6 hours into the cycle or so? I believe it was around when I made the post about others feeling free to hold me to sharing my suspicions today. 

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

I see I'm not the only one enjoying the secret voting mechanics here 

Shout-out to @Thaidakar the Ghostblood, @Mailliw73, both of whom absolutely did not signal this at all as well.

Do you mean I didn't signal my vote? 

So, now I'll share my suspicions after wanting to see how that first day went. I was initially suspicious of Archer, and then backed off as it feels like his genuine style the just rubbed me wrong at first. JNV's first post of the cycle and then Experience's post that I quoted above each gave me bad vibes as well. I threw the vote on JNV and probably would've switched it to Exp had I had more time at the end of the cycle to do so. I'm playing this game pretty chill, and without any informal vote tallies, I did not think that Striker was that in the lead of votes. I expected there to be a much closer vote between Ash, Archer, and Striker, with maybe someone replacing Ash or Archer if some secret votes were congregating. 

[Amanuensis he/him]

1 minute ago, Ashbringer said:

Reasoning was up above-ish, exact time was 10:54

Cool, thank you.

I have to admit, your EoD panicking look not great in a last-minute-bus scenario. But I also have reasons to think you're Village and tbh I would expect your "idk where to vote, I might not vote at all" to be contained within the elim doc, were you truthfully an elim.

Which is why I want to know if anyone was expressing sus of you before Striker's post, because his weird hedginess with you could have been hoping for an ML if so. If not... it def doesn't look good for V!Ash.

[Kasimir he/him]

1 minute ago, Mailliw73 said:

Do you mean I didn't signal my vote? 

Yes - I think there's a qualitative difference between those of us who didn't signal (me included), and those who had a group of three and were more or less obvious about who in the group of three they were going to go on.