Quick Fix 59: Bachelor--Roshar edition!

[Kasimir he/him]

2 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

I HAVE NO IDEA WHAT HAPPENED AND I'M SO UPSET

I HAD MY ENTIRE POST DONE AND I HIT SEND

"This field is required."

WHAT FIELD? WHY DID HITTING SUBMIT DELETE OVER HALF OF MY POST?

I'M ALREADY HAVING A TERRIBLE WEEKEND AND I TRIED TO BE POSITIVE WITH MY SEND OFF AND I'M ACTUALLY TRIGGERED

I DON'T KNOW IF I HAVE THE TIME OR THE HEART TO REDO MY ILLWEI AND ASH BITS BUT THEY'RE TOO IMPORTANT NOT TOO AND I'M ANGRY

WTH 17TH SHARD

Aman - this has happened to me a few times, I'm sorry to hear, bro.

As far as I can tell, it's some sort of timeout where if you spend too long working on a longpost, you lose everything that wasn't saved. Currently, I try to ctrl+a / ctrl+c everything before I hit post, because sometimes it screws up.

Either way, please take a deep breath man? I know it's frustrating to lose something you've put so much of your heart and effort into. I've been there  Storming post editor ate my D1/D2 vote analysis in LG83 and I was so done with everything and life.

We gotchu, bro. Even if you can't redo it, Village has to do our part too.

In LG83, Devo reminded me that the Village should never depend on one player. Everyone gotta chip in. You've done your part. If you can rewrite it, you can. If you can't, you can't. Then it's on us to take it up and do our bit.

[Amanuensis he/him]

10 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Aman - this has happened to me a few times, I'm sorry to hear, bro.

As far as I can tell, it's some sort of timeout where if you spend too long working on a longpost, you lose everything that wasn't saved. Currently, I try to ctrl+a / ctrl+c everything before I hit post, because sometimes it screws up.

Either way, please take a deep breath man? I know it's frustrating to lose something you've put so much of your heart and effort into. I've been there  Storming post editor ate my D1/D2 vote analysis in LG83 and I was so done with everything and life.

We gotchu, bro. Even if you can't redo it, Village has to do our part too.

In LG83, Devo reminded me that the Village should never depend on one player. Everyone gotta chip in. You've done your part. If you can rewrite it, you can. If you can't, you can't. Then it's on us to take it up and do our bit.

Let me at least summarize what those parts contained:

Quoted back and forths between Striker and I regarding Illwei (they can be found on Page 2 and 3 of D1). Striker's response to my Illwei sus was really weird imo (seriously go look) + him attacking my logic for suspecting him inadvertently protected JNV and Illwei too (one of them could be a partner) + at the end of it he kind of hedged on Illwei in a non-commital way compared to how he came around to my logic for TUA (I'll need to think about it more) which I believe means Illwei/TUA are E/V or V/E. Plus there's a weird Illwei-Striker interaction on D3 that pretty much goes nowhere. And this:

On 3/10/2022 at 1:50 PM, Illwei said:

Mrrrrr

Aman
Ash
JNV
TUA

Striker? something tells me I'm wrong here
Archer? Got some good vibes from a post of his

Illwei's D1 readslist 10 minutes before EoD. I can't tell if she's uncertain about where votes are landing (Orlok hasn't yet posted he's getting involved + shortly after I pretend to be considering voting Archer and Ash). The fact that both wagons have question marks is really weird to me, why question both your e reads? Why not question your v ones? Plus why are Ash, JNV, and TUA in her v reads when today she wants to kill at least half of them? Idk illwei's slot this game just feels so off to me and I might be tunneling at this point so please someone else multiquote those interactions and seriously look at everything.

 

On the Ash side, Striker was the first person to initiate sus of Ash (I think, please confirm) and it was a transitive thing because of the Archer voting proposal and I just really don't think Striker does that to his teammate or continues to insist that he would want to be pursuing an Ash exe if Archer's exe didn't work out.

 

Edited March 12, 2022 by Amanuensis

[Kasimir he/him]

4 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

The fact that both wagons have question marks is really weird to me, why question both your e reads? Why not question your v ones?

Could I ask about this one? Because to me, my goals are always twofold: I want to protect all the Villagers I can and find Elims. If I'm tunnelling or mistaken, I want to correct myself before it's too late and a mistake happens. And I want to find Elims if I've mistakenly thought them Village. I accept some MLs happen and some infolynches are necessary, but it goes against the grain to let a Villager die if I could have saved them or if I could have done better at reading them. Questioning my E reads seems natural to me. Or is your point about the asymmetry of questioning your E but not your V reads?

7 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

On the Ash side, Striker was the first person to initiate sus of Ash (I think, please confirm) and it was a transitive thing because of the Archer voting proposal and I just really don't think Striker does that to his teammate or continues to insist that he would want to be pursuing an Ash exe if Archer's exe didn't work out.

I struggle at reading interactions but this I can do.

[Amanuensis he/him]

5 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Could I ask about this one? Because to me, my goals are always twofold: I want to protect all the Villagers I can and find Elims. If I'm tunnelling or mistaken, I want to correct myself before it's too late and a mistake happens. And I want to find Elims if I've mistakenly thought them Village. I accept some MLs happen and some infolynches are necessary, but it goes against the grain to let a Villager die if I could have saved them or if I could have done better at reading them. Questioning my E reads seems natural to me. Or is your point about the asymmetry of questioning your E but not your V reads?

Okay sure I agree but this is Illwei not us. Has she ever done something like that before? She's usually very adamant about her reads, no? Or waffles now and then but doesn't explicitly question herself.

[Kasimir he/him]

2 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Okay sure I agree but this is Illwei not us. Has she ever done something like that before? She's usually very adamant about her reads, no? Or waffles now and then but doesn't explicitly question herself.

I want to check this too. I don't have a solid basis but I feel like I see more waffling from Illwei because she does that more when we're PMing in games. But I seem to recall something in LG83...I'm checking it.

[Amanuensis he/him]

On 3/9/2022 at 6:25 PM, StrikerEZ said:

Albert: This supposed cup has made some good points about how many murderers we might be dealing with. They are also making several points about the nature of our votes in this game for Adolin's love being secret that I agree with strongly. It is odd that they are accusing an axehound of being a murderer, but, well, I do find the axehound suspicious as well. 

On 3/9/2022 at 7:42 PM, Amanuensis said:

• Illwei: Agrees with Illwei's takes on elim numbers, vote accountability, and Mat vote. Can assume this means v!read too.

On 3/9/2022 at 7:42 PM, Amanuensis said:

• I was previously thinking Illwei might be a wolf for all the reasons Striker agrees with her, so another E/E sitch

On 3/9/2022 at 8:24 PM, StrikerEZ said:

…you were reading her as a wolf for being right about the most likely distro for a 15 player vanilla game?

On 3/9/2022 at 9:25 PM, Amanuensis said:

Yup. Her first post mostly just said what I already did a few posts up + mentioned there'd be 4 elims if the game wasn't properly balanced on top of the fact shorter cycles and hidden votes are elim-sided + expressed the opinion that secret votes are bad (flag I was looking for). Altogether, it feels like a post for the sake of posting / looking village, rather than a post for the sake of solving the game.

On 3/9/2022 at 10:10 PM, StrikerEZ said:

To me this reads like Illwei trying to genuinely work things out as a villager rather than being performative. But I’ve also done similar things as an elim. So idk.

This was our Illwei back and forth and like, compare it to the TUA back and forth?

 

[+Lotus she/her]

Hi friends.

my computer Unfortunetly went kaput last night. I’m trying to get it fixed but I doubt I can get it fixed by todays rollover. Because of this, I am extending this cycle by 24 hours. It will end on Sunday, March 13th at 11:00 Am PST.

thank you for understating 

[Kasimir he/him]

• On Ash, yes if you consider Striker's reads post the first time it crops up. Subsequently, Archer makes a joking prod about E!Ash, and then Bort mentions suspicion of Ash, Illwei interrogates Ash (does not explicitly mention suspicion, but that's what it looks like), then Archer explicitly moves to E!Ash thought, which is where I'd consider Ash suspicion to properly emerge in robust form since Archer mentioned Ash was going into his vote pool.
   
• On Illwei, see here from LG83:

I think it's a new style she's adopted, @Amanuensis - she was Village HK that game.

[Amanuensis he/him]

10 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

• On Ash, yes if you consider Striker's reads post the first time it crops up. Subsequently, Archer makes a joking prod about E!Ash, and then Bort mentions suspicion of Ash, Illwei interrogates Ash (does not explicitly mention suspicion, but that's what it looks like), then Archer explicitly moves to E!Ash thought, which is where I'd consider Ash suspicion to properly emerge in robust form since Archer mentioned Ash was going into his vote pool.
   
• On Illwei, see here from LG83:

I think it's a new style she's adopted, @Amanuensis - she was Village HK that game.

How are these lists comparable? That list is much higher info and the ???'s represent not having a read of them. The list from this game is literally just names and only the e reads have ? which means she's hedging on those reads. Also I don't think it's a coincidence that I'm v!reading Ash and TUA, that she V!read them on C1, and now she's going for Ash and TUA today when her presence is increasing.

ED1T:

Oh btw thank you for pointing out that Archer interaction with Ash.

On 3/9/2022 at 10:11 PM, Ashbringer said:

… I’m gonna be honest, I hyperfocused on Archer saying elims don’t like randomness

On 3/9/2022 at 10:29 PM, Archer said:

e!Ash was insulted, I see. :P. 

Another reason I want to v!read Ash. I literally did the exact same thing that Ash did.

ED2T:

Anyway, JNV is voting Illwei today which is pretty nice because pretty likely one of them is elim. Just gotta figure out which one.

Also thankfully there are another 24 hours in this turn so I can do what I need to do this weekend and there's ample time for y'all to build some cases and a consensus.

Really should go now tho so best of luck everyone <3 especially Lotus!

Edited March 12, 2022 by Amanuensis

[Illwei]

1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

Illwei's D1 readslist 10 minutes before EoD. I can't tell if she's uncertain about where votes are landing (Orlok hasn't yet posted he's getting involved + shortly after I pretend to be considering voting Archer and Ash). The fact that both wagons have question marks is really weird to me, why question both your e reads? Why not question your v ones? Plus why are Ash, JNV, and TUA in her v reads when today she wants to kill at least half of them? Idk illwei's slot this game just feels so off to me and I might be tunneling at this point so please someone else multiquote those interactions and seriously look at everything.

Ftr that list was not my village reads, that was my D1 PoE.

47 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Okay sure I agree but this is Illwei not us. Has she ever done something like that before? She's usually very adamant about her reads, no? Or waffles now and then but doesn't explicitly question herself.

You imply I'm not capable of doubting myself? Or Re-evaling? I doubt every single one of my reads but faking confidence applies pressure better than not. As Kas said I suppose, I keep that to PMs more (lol) with people I trust as well as my notes rather than in thread. If I posted my full thoughts I type out when making reads then it would look like I have no opinions.

24 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

On Ash, yes if you consider Striker's reads post the first time it crops up. Subsequently, Archer makes a joking prod about E!Ash, and then Bort mentions suspicion of Ash, Illwei interrogates Ash (does not explicitly mention suspicion, but that's what it looks like), then Archer explicitly moves to E!Ash thought, which is where I'd consider Ash suspicion to properly emerge in robust form since Archer mentioned Ash was going into his vote pool.

Honestly this just furthers my E!Archer theory, tbh. I don't know what this was meant to be but yeah. it really looks like he cautiously put forward an idea and then backed up but then when he got support he went stronger.
Another point why I have a hard time going full V!Archer is his defence of Striker, which he tried to keep up and then started trying to shade Aman when Aman pushed striker more, as if to try and discredit him.

Edited March 12, 2022 by Illwei

[Kasimir he/him]

3 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

How are these lists comparable? That list is much higher info and the ???'s represent not having a read of them. The list from this game is literally just names and only the e reads have ? which means she's hedging on those reads. Also I don't think it's a coincidence that I'm v!reading Ash and TUA, that she V!read them on C1, and now she's going for Ash and TUA today, when her presence is increasing.

I think I see it as reflection of the fact she's taken to expressing her uncertainty openly instead of only in PMs, or presumably, only in her head. This was also on D5, where I'd expect her to have much more solid reads than on D1. Perhaps the rejoinder is that I should then find a D1 from Illwei, but this I admit is a new notation system I've observed from her, as I don't recall seeing it in AG8 and it's probably from her offsite play. She didn't use it in MR56 as she used yet another system there, and she subbed into LG83, so it's not possible to compare like with like in this case.

I think it's fair you want to claim the lists aren't comparable - I'm definitely looking at it on a more coarse-grained level as Illwei becoming more open about uncertainty. I still think the fact that the list is lower info in this game is explained by the fact it's a D1 list - so then I guess your emphasis is that she's only hedging on the E reads?

In all fairness, I went back to dig through MR56 as well since I remembered she did a series of separate boxes, and I think that's where your memories of Illwei being more assertive about her reads come from, for reference:

So I agree there's a shift, but I see it as a stylistic shift.

I do see the reaction asymmetry with regard to Striker on Illwei and Striker on TUA btw - I'm honestly just not really feeling/understanding the list issue.

Not a coincidence in what sense?

[JNV]

Nonvoters are The Unknonw Aon Ex[erience Mailliw Bort Orlok. Orlok said they have irl stuff so no hmms there. I dont remember why bort is trusted but Ill look into it oine sec. K so different from elim behavior wasn't online for the bus ok sounds good might peek back later. The Unknown Aon has been hmm a bit so if theyre evil more likely village Ashbringer cause the vote. I dont remember Experience at all which is a bit hm in and of itself but Ill look into it one sec. Ok yeah the Ashbringer vote in C1 looks real bad but also if Experience is evil it implies less bus and more "oh no were doomed" from the elimsso maybe not or did they not expect the Striker vote to actually go through but then wheres the other elim/s only nonvoter was Archer so if not bus then scattered side vote but that doesnt relaly make sense so maybe Experience not evil. Mailliw seemed really apathetic bout the STriker vote andf hoenstly Im not really sure either way so just very light hm maybe even just hn

1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

Illwei's D1 readslist 10 minutes before EoD. I can't tell if she's uncertain about where votes are landing (Orlok hasn't yet posted he's getting involved + shortly after I pretend to be considering voting Archer and Ash). The fact that both wagons have question marks is really weird to me, why question both your e reads? Why not question your v ones? Plus why are Ash, JNV, and TUA in her v reads when today she wants to kill at least half of them? Idk illwei's slot this game just feels so off to me and I might be tunneling at this point so please someone else multiquote those interactions and seriously look at everything.

Ok so Iread the back and forth and I dont really think the initial Illwei post was hmm but Strikers response to your disagreement was kinda hmm disagreement then immediate backtracking under pressure seems invested in not defending I could see it if I squint maybe but also oculdj ust be elim Striker trying not to get into fights instead of elim Striker trying not to be tied to elim Illwei

But compare to The Unknown Aon disagremeent where Striker said it was jsut their opinon on opposition could be reading sus vs reading trust could be Illwei argument had more evidence but hmm The Unknown Aon Illwei not the same alignment? Id prefer voting The Unknown Aon over Illwei but i dont know why so Ill look into that real quick

 

The Unknown Aon hmm stuff

• Retaliation vote
  • I just dont like these in general and also this is hmmm whne considering how Archer wasnt even guaranteed votin 
• Bad Illwei vibe no reason
• Then not actually retaliation vote?
  • "it was a joke" that wasnt really obvcious? Hmmm

The fact that this is all C1 stuff makes me go hmm at my suspicion and honestly I always read The Unkonw Aon kind of weird so maybe not but still its kinda hmm

 

Illwei hmm stuff

Honestly  Im not coming up with stuff and this might be cause I agree with them on a lot of things like Archer and the vote shenanigan bad time but like... I just dont really think theyre evil! I kinda like them. Thats probably a  bad sign all things considered 

 

I sitll dont like Ashbringer or Archer honestly but with an extra day in the cycle I think Ill just read through the game a few times so I can try to figure stuff out itll probalby confuse me more honestly but oh well

 

33 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Anyway, JNV is voting Illwei today which is pretty nice because pretty likely one of them is elim. Just gotta figure out which one.

Ummmmmm... what? This is my first post of the cycle and I hvaent said anything about voting for Illwei last cycle I dont think so where is this coming from

 

Oh and about all the votes on me I kinda feel like theres nothing to defend cause the votes seem based on actions and how they could be interpreted rather than things Ive said and I cant relaly argue against what might be true because sure everything might be true so Ill see you in the credits I guess I dont know whhat my flip will help you with but we arent in the doom cycle and we arent pressed for evil raeds 

I cna see evil Ashbringer in a world with a three person team and inactive third guy cause then its basiclaly solo Ashbringer at this point 

I have to go somewhere right now might not be back for a few hours have fun bye

[Experience he/him]

2 minutes ago, JNV said:

Nonvoters are The Unknonw Aon Ex[erience Mailliw Bort Orlok

Had widom teeth surgery, and forgot to place a vote.

My vote is currently on Illwei from sometime last night. Really just gut, but it's better than my feelings for most others. 

[Illwei]

I think there is at least one (probably one) In Archer/Ash. If i had to bump one of these up to village tier...I honestly have no clue. I want to say I'd move Ash up because

we'll go there

Illwei
Kas
Aman

Am I just pocketed by Kas ...defending me? yes.
The problem is now there's so many people that I just don't feel comfortable moving up to village tier for one reason or another.

Maill I...I don't even know. I should be able to get anything off of him but I don't know what's up because he sounds like Steel to me. I can't judge his meta off of one Elim game, especially because i was on the team with him. The thing is I don't feel like i actually see any opinions in his post, which is what puts me off the most. If there's a translator I would appreciate your interpretation

Experience hasn't even talked much, that's mostly it. I can't justify pushing him up. People always find experience suspicious, and he's commonly a good ML target. I haven't seen any of that, but that doesn't mean much because he isn't as active as he normally is. Similar, even more so that Maill i just haven't seen any real opinions from him.

TUA I've talked about before, right? I think Striker's approach to them wasn't good. They seemed to be pretty absent as well, and seem to be pretty absent currently so that would make it harder to swing the vote in the beginning. Mostly it's an "I can't remove them because they have only posted once" as well as a "I can't take them off because they fit on a team with pretty much anyone"

Bort I might just be resisting sheeping the consensus V read on because of his vote on me, saying it was "gut" and giving no further reason, then talking a little about E!Archer? but yeah. Probably my first to move up.

I don't even remember who's left. but I know there's two. (not archer/ash)

But Yeah.

I think Archer/Ash/TUA/+1 has 2 Elims. I was trying to find a 4th name but there's nothing I believe in. I could put Exp but I don't really think that. Maybe Bort but I'm not sold on that, even if there are a number of things he's said that ping me.

6 hours ago, Kasimir said:

@Illwei, why Thaid? I noticed your last post in that cycle was basically about Ash rather than Thaid. Do I infer correctly it was meant to protect Ash?

I voted on Thaid early in the cycle almost purely because lack of content meant i had no read on him. Probably wasn't the smartest vote but i was busy last cycle so /shrug.

I think that votes on me are bad but that's probably only because I don't quite understand them. I fully believe we should be killing in Archer/Ash even though I think people believe that they are both village (kas is people) but then where does that leave me if i follow that?

Illwei
Kas
Aman
Archer
Ash

Means the team is in

JNV/Orlok/TUA/Experience/Bort/Maill

Which...I don't feel like there's a cohesive team there.

Gonna post this even though it's not a complete thought because i need to get ready for work and not get lost in this post for another 20 minutes

EDIT:

That's now

Experience, Bort, (potentially JNV), Aman

on me

@Amanuensis How do you feel about that wagon composition rn ?

Edited March 12, 2022 by Illwei

[Experience he/him]

Hmm Illwei's post reads very villagery to me. Ahhh Idk who to vote on hmmm.

Edited March 12, 2022 by Experience

[Illwei]

Sadness when I take my shower and still no one has posted.

17 minutes ago, Experience said:

Hmm Illwei's post reads very villagery to me. Ahhh Idk who to vote on hmmm.

Things like this are why I want to believe in a V!experience world @Kasimir @Amanuensis

Because it's a completely unneccesary post if it's coming from an Elim trying to get an easy misexe imo.

[Kasimir he/him]

21 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Maill I...I don't even know. I should be able to get anything off of him but I don't know what's up because he sounds like Steel to me. I can't judge his meta off of one Elim game, especially because i was on the team with him. The thing is I don't feel like i actually see any opinions in his post, which is what puts me off the most. If there's a translator I would appreciate your interpretation

My read on Maili isn't meta-based, but capability based. I cannot buy a world in which Striker is lynched without Maili intervention unless it was a gambit. And I've stated a few times why I think it's not a gambit and it would be kayana for it to be a gambit. We've seen Maili work the thread in LG74, and there's also LG51, which IMO makes for good entertainment reading - it's probably Maili's best Elim game and he's rightfully proud of it. To be sure, a lot of Maili's skill as an Elim requires PMs, but I just can't see him having about the reaction level of a dead fish to a teammate getting D1ed. I think he's capable of better than that, unless he was busy as all hell, I guess. But even then...

1 minute ago, Illwei said:

Because it's a completely unneccesary post if it's coming from an Elim trying to get an easy misexe imo.

How so?

[Experience he/him]

My vote is currently on one of JNV or Bort. Might switch between them, but I'll probably be leaving it on them for at least a while, esp because rollover is pushed back.

[Illwei]

9 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

My read on Maili isn't meta-based, but capability based. I cannot buy a world in which Striker is lynched without Maili intervention unless it was a gambit. And I've stated a few times why I think it's not a gambit and it would be kayana for it to be a gambit. We've seen Maili work the thread in LG74, and there's also LG51, which IMO makes for good entertainment reading - it's probably Maili's best Elim game and he's rightfully proud of it. To be sure, a lot of Maili's skill as an Elim requires PMs, but I just can't see him having about the reaction level of a dead fish to a teammate getting D1ed. I think he's capable of better than that, unless he was busy as all hell, I guess. But even then...

How so?

Things change if Exp doesn't realize that it's extended 24 hours, which if he does then it doesn't matter anymore because there would be no real need to switch off of me after expressing doubt. But just in my mind it's a completely pointless post when Aman is probably ending on me today? or at least looks like it at that point in time and whatnot. Idk. Gotta go to work.

Also. Mrr. I suppose I can buy the point on Maill right now.

One of my defenses that I have that isn't really relevant to anyone voting on me or potentially in the game is that I just. I can't say I wouldn't have let striker go over there but there were some obvious red flags like the only focusing on defending himself that I don't see how another teammate would just let him do and die with without a fight. I suppose it implies that they're too scared to approach Aman, who was leading that, or just generally absent.

And then an awkward reason that no one needs to believe me on is that I never kill Mat D1 here. Matrim has been consistently suspicious of me since...has it been since LG74? maybe a bit further on, but I don't recall ever not succeeding to pocket Matrim in a way that mattered besides the amongus MR that Straw hosted right after AG7.

Illwei
Aman
Kas
Maill

We have 24 hours I need two more. Someone Pitch themselves. 

Might entertain Bort as village but his original suspicion of like Striker/Archer/Ash/Mat and follow up with "Which means they're probably village because i suspect them" still is like mrrrrr to me.

Quote

Given my expert skills at picking elims, it probably means they are all village, lol.

[Amanuensis he/him]

1 hour ago, Illwei said:

Ftr that list was not my village reads, that was my D1 PoE.

Oh? I guess I assumed it was village reads because I was in there. Was inserting my name a joke or did you actually think I could be elim at that time?

1 hour ago, Illwei said:

You imply I'm not capable of doubting myself? Or Re-evaling? I doubt every single one of my reads but faking confidence applies pressure better than not. As Kas said I suppose, I keep that to PMs more (lol) with people I trust as well as my notes rather than in thread. If I posted my full thoughts I type out when making reads then it would look like I have no opinions.

I think you're capable of it. You did it in MR56 a lot, I just feel you just did it very differently. What I'm used to from you is shifting your reads based on little micro details (going back and forth on someone being either village because one post or elim because another, not expressing uncertainty, but leaping about).

Ultimately, I think what's going on rn (with this and Kas' confusion about my reads list point in the first place) is that I just straight up think you're an elim, and I'm looking for reasons to support it when for the most part it's just gut vibes and PoE. So the reasons don't exactly make sense, especially in a way that I can articulate it for Kas to make sense, but they do make sense to me and how I feel about your slot. I had this same problem C3 of MR56 when convincing people to exe Archer. I was basically throwing every possible justification at the wall that I could because I felt in my bones that something was off.

I think, ultimately, is that in a last-minute bus world where the elims were uncertain if Striker would die or not but went for it, you're just the most fitting candidate, and that "Archer? Striker?" hedging is just too convenient for me in that world. Had enough people come out to say they still wanted to exe Archer, I think that reads list would set e!illwei up to not go for the bus. It's kinda like this part:

2 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Also I don't think it's a coincidence that I'm v!reading Ash and TUA, that she V!read them on C1, and now she's going for Ash and TUA today when her presence is increasing.

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Not a coincidence in what sense?

In the sense that if I'm right about Ash and TUA both being village, at least one of their MLs are essential in getting the elims to exlo. I've been playing a lot of Valorant lately and there's this thing called "game sense" where people instinctively look in the exact corner where an enemy agent is and get the kill. I feel like this is my equivalent of game sense; my instincts tell me these exes are bad, especially now after illwei went for the easy Thaid ML that I led (for very nebulous reasons). Too many things just don't add up for me.

And again, Illwei's approach this turn might look village to people like Experience, but I just don't feel it. I feel like this is an elim trying to gain thread control.

Honestly, the clincher for me is this:

22 hours ago, Illwei said:

We're either at 9 v 2 or 8 v 3

Which Means either 3 or 2 Mistakes more are allowed. Meaning to be on the safe side, we need a PoE of 5, where three are Elims. So we need to find 6 villagers.

Illwei

Kasimir
The Unknown Aon
JNV
Archer
Experience
Ash
Maillwi
Amanuensis
Bort
Orlok

Obviously I'm not doing too  good at this right now. I have a theory but I'm not going to say anything until next cycle about it.

21 hours ago, Illwei said:

I guess might as well take a leap of faith

Illwei
Archer
Aman
Kasimir
JNV
Experience

Maillwi
Orlok
Bort
Ash
The Unknown Aon

I think there are all the Elims in the bottom 5 people. Objections? Who's next? Move the list around and tell me why

21 hours ago, Illwei said:

We need maximum five people that we can all agree that there are 3 elims in. I don't really care if people add me in as long as I think that my three are there.

...

If I'm to go down more, I'd start my Village tier off with

Illwei
Archer
Experience

right now probably. Which means I need 3 more. Why should one of them be you?

The thing for me is that I don't feel comfortable enough with putting Aman or Kas solidly in my village tier without a huge leap of faith. These aren't Archer kills. They definitely could be Ash Kills.

1 hour ago, Illwei said:

I think there is at least one (probably one) In Archer/Ash. If i had to bump one of these up to village tier...I honestly have no clue. I want to say I'd move Ash up because

we'll go there

Illwei
Kas
Aman

Am I just pocketed by Kas ...defending me? yes.
The problem is now there's so many people that I just don't feel comfortable moving up to village tier for one reason or another.

...

Illwei has put herself in her own village tiers four times today. Does a Villager really do that? I know when I'm an elim, I usually want to put myself in my own Village tier and if I do play it off like a joke, but when I'm Village I completely remove myself from the lists because it just doesn't matter in terms of my own analysis and I don't care what other people think, I let my own efforts and actions speak for themselves. It's the little things like that leave me feeling like Illwei cares more about looking Village today than actually being Village.

49 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Sadness when I take my shower and still no one has posted.

Things like this are why I want to believe in a V!experience world @Kasimir @Amanuensis

Because it's a completely unneccesary post if it's coming from an Elim trying to get an easy misexe imo.

This works as an example too because I'm not questioning Experience myself, and don't think I've made any indication of it. So why ping me asking if that post looks village for Experience? Shouldn't illwei be trying to get me into thinking another player is an elim instead, since she believes that I'm voting for her today already?

1 hour ago, JNV said:

Ummmmmm... what? This is my first post of the cycle and I hvaent said anything about voting for Illwei last cycle I dont think so where is this coming from

Oh, whoops. I thought it was you but I was thinking of Bort's post here lol.

6 hours ago, Bort said:

I'm going mostly off gut here, but I think I'll be voting today for Illwei.

ED1T:

One last Illwei thing I forgot.

21 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Seriously, why kill Devo? It narrows the pool of potential Stricker busers.

21 hours ago, Illwei said:

The kill implies that there are no striker bussers, since they don't care about making the pool smaller.

I actually typed up a response to his 21 hours ago and decided not to post it because I wanted to see what other people felt about the Devo kill first.

The fact Illwei goes for this explanation (1st level read) and not the obvious 2nd level read (that Striker was bussed and the elims narrowed the pool to make us think they don't care) is just...

Like, come on. More people voted on Striker than not (that are still alive). If none of the elims bussed him, why would they kill Devo if it meant directing us straight to them?

@Kasimir

Edited March 12, 2022 by Amanuensis

[Ashbringer he/him]

I have no power today - can still be on mobile (like so) but I’ll be a bit out of it.

Also if there’s no rollover in an hour and a half I’m going back to sleep.

[Illwei]

36 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Oh? I guess I assumed it was village reads because I was in there. Was inserting my name a joke or did you actually think I could be elim at that time?

I was tinfoil I couldn't call you reasonably village without a striker flip

But I like the villagery confidence that's pretty 

Well

Villagery

36 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

If I'm right about Ash and TUA both being village,

I mean yeah.  I guess this is pretty much what it boils down to is that I don't think they're both village. 

36 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

game sense

In terms of mafia I think game sense can be compared to gamestate reads. Kinda just an overall "based on how things have played out, I think the elims are hiding in these semi-designated spots" in response to a "something isn't right here" feeling that usually comes after a towncore/trust circle has been formed or a streak of mls.

36 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Illwei's approach this turn might look village to people like Experience, but I just don't feel it. I feel like this is an elim trying to gain thread control.

Is this an honest thought or is it still more confbiasing?  I'd ask you to look through again at what I've majorly done,  which in my eyes? Try to work specifically with people to try and solidify some form of a concrete, game winning PoE. Because without any Mech that is one of the only things we can do to scare the Elims.

As for the "why not try to get me to believe an elim read" I mean, I don't really have a good answer for that because I think it's a flawed question. I think I've made my approach to today specifically clear. 

Anyways, not going to interact more about the topic of illwei when I feel like it's blatant you're confbiased. Not meaning this in a rude way, but in a like "this will become a pointless waste of threadspace" kinda way. If there's anything specifically about me that someone wants me to answer I will. 

I take no responsibility for any typos as I wrote this while driving to work

EDIT:

me putting myself in my village reads isn't a joke. Was you putting your name in green on that votecount you posted a joke? 

Anyways sorry if any of this comes across as hostile, it's not my intent but things seems to be interpreted as hostile when I don't particularly put effort into making the post friendly. Don't really have time to be anything but straight to the point when I need to clock in in 2 minutes :p. 

I think it should be obvious I am village based on how me PoEs keep swapping every time I update. I'm sticking with you/kas/exp for right now. I think. But if I was an elim it would be 10x easier when it was obvious no one is interested in working with me, despite my efforts, to just pull 5 names that I either knew were village or teammates and call them my towncore. /shrug

Edited March 12, 2022 by Illwei

[Amanuensis he/him]

19 minutes ago, Illwei said:

I mean yeah.  I guess this is pretty much what it boils down to is that I don't think they're both village. 

In terms of mafia I think game sense can be compared to gamestate reads. Kinda just an overall "based on how things have played out, I think the elims are hiding in these semi-designated spots" in response to a "something isn't right here" feeling that usually comes after a towncore/trust circle has been formed or a streak of mls.

Is this an honest thought or is it still more confbiasing?  I'd ask you to look through again at what I've majorly done,  which in my eyes? Try to work specifically with people to try and solidify some form of a concrete, game winning PoE. Because without any Mech that is one of the only things we can do to scare the Elims.

As for the "why not try to get me to believe an elim read" I mean, I don't really have a good answer for that because I think it's a flawed question. I think I've made my approach to today specifically clear. 

Anyways, not going to interact more about the topic of illwei when I feel like it's blatant you're confbiased. Not meaning this in a rude way, but in a like "this will become a pointless waste of threadspace" kinda way. If there's anything specifically about me that someone wants me to answer I will. 

In complete fairness, def confbiased / tunneling, which is part of why I don't want to lead your exe (on top of really not having the energy or time for it, though I might have more tomorrow since the turn got extended).

For now, I will let things play out in case you are Village because I don't want a repeat of the Emerald drama when people refused to listen to you because of your association with e!me (still feel bad about that).

But at the same time, I do have to let my suspicion be known - especially because we disagree on TUA/Ash, and if I am right, I'm responsible for not letting them get ML'd. TUA, at least to me, is more obviously town based on Striker interactions, where there's enough weirdness around Ash that I could just be pocketed and he is an elim.

I might be somewhat at a disadvantage for how to read you since my last known memory is MR56 and not LG83, since I was inactive that game and got killed D2 (I think the same turn you came in, so I don't know how your play was that game compared to the MR and this one). I just can't shake that you're both playing more reasonably and less abrasively than you have in MR53 and AG8 both, and I acknowledge that's kind of a terrible way to read someone, but also that if you're E and worried about getting exed / suspected, this is the exact play I'd expect.

ED1T:

19 minutes ago, Illwei said:

me putting myself in my village reads isn't a joke. Was you putting your name in green on that votecount you posted a joke? 

Nope. That was a quoted vote count where my name had to be on the list, and I do consider myself cleared by the Striker exe.

ED2T:

But anyway, there's at least one or two Striker teammates out there (besides yourself, if I'm right, +1 if y'all started with 4) so we can temporarily compromise on finding another Striker partner.

Edited March 12, 2022 by Amanuensis

[Kasimir he/him]

12 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Ultimately, I think what's going on rn (with this and Kas' confusion about my reads list point in the first place) is that I just straight up think you're an elim, and I'm looking for reasons to support it when for the most part it's just gut vibes and PoE. So the reasons don't exactly make sense, especially in a way that I can articulate it for Kas to make sense, but they do make sense to me and how I feel about your slot. I had this same problem C3 of MR56 when convincing people to exe Archer. I was basically throwing every possible justification at the wall that I could because I felt in my bones that something was off.

Gonna be honest, that makes a lot more sense than me wondering if I was tripping because I genuinely did not see the reads list point. Which probably explains why I was feeling about as weirded out as in MR56 C3, maybe less so because you were pushing it less strongly.

31 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

In the sense that if I'm right about Ash and TUA both being village, at least one of their MLs are essential in getting the elims to exlo. I've been playing a lot of Valorant lately and there's this thing called "game sense" where people instinctively look in the exact corner where an enemy agent is and get the kill. I feel like this is my equivalent of game sense; my instincts tell me these exes are bad, especially now after illwei went for the easy Thaid ML that I led (for very nebulous reasons). Too many things just don't add up for me.

I respect your instincts, coming from you. At the same time, I'm in this game to play it, not to sheep, as much as I often really...am tempted to run back to the security blanket of players I trust both because they are in my robust Village reads and I respect their abilities as players. (This isn't a statement about you, this is a reminder to me that I need to put the work in too. God knows I had a breakdown after Orlok died in AG8 because I didn't realise how much part of me was thinking I had Orlok's back and how much I was relying on that sense of security. I don't like players relying on me alone, I shouldn't do that to you too, and I need to do my share of the work.) I'll commit to rethink my TUA read, weighting your post and Striker's reaction, but in any case, I think I'm not down for a TUA lynch this cycle. I'm still not powerfully against it, but I'm currently advancing JNV, and hesitating on Illwei. I have liked Ash's kill analysis post (and that helps, since I have really been all over the place with him, though he's at least migrating through my positive tiers right now), so I would agree more with V!Ash than I did one cycle ago.

39 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

And again, Illwei's approach this turn might look village to people like Experience, but I just don't feel it. I feel like this is an elim trying to gain thread control.

Okay, but why now? Why not C1 when her teammate got lynched and they had to bus him?

40 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Illwei has put herself in her own village tiers four times today. Does a Villager really do that? I know when I'm an elim, I usually want to put myself in my own Village tier and if I do play it off like a joke, but when I'm Village I completely remove myself from the lists because it just doesn't matter in terms of my own analysis and I don't care what other people think, I let my own efforts and actions speak for themselves. It's the little things like that leave me feeling like Illwei cares more about looking Village today than actually being Village.

Honestly, I've done it when performing vote analysis as a Villager. (I didn't discover vote analysis in early SE so no baseline for E!Kas, think I didn't do it in BT1, just focused on the confirmed Villagers.) But I use a green highlight to indicate that for the sake of my own analysis, I'm considering myself Village, and I use the green highlight for my strong Village reads. Wilson almost MLed me in MR4 for something similar (I was the Wit, so confirmed Village), so I tend to be a bit wary around points involving this :/

I guess to be fair, you could say that there's a non-performative point to me doing so in vote analysis - the point is that it makes the patterns stand out more strikingly as a crude form of data visualisation. I usually do not put myself in my readslist, that is true. I have done so once or twice jokingly as a Villager, and I absolutely did so as the Security Officer to troll, but by and large, I just don't as it's not relevant and distracts people.

So...I guess I could see that in a sort of cumulative argument ("all these small things don't add up.") But I don't know.

46 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

This works as an example too because I'm not questioning Experience myself, and don't think I've made any indication of it. So why ping me asking if that post looks village for Experience? Shouldn't illwei be trying to get me into thinking another player is an elim instead, since she believes that I'm voting for her today already?

She put you in her most recent Village read tier, and I know how she basically works is that she IDs trusts and she pings them to bounce thoughts. That's normally what happens between us in PMs, and it's possible she's relying on the thread now. But I need to check MR56 again, because I'm not sure if I recall her doing that there, and that was also a PM-less game.

I can see this - I'm just stuck between two competing explanations and unsure of which I find more convincing right now.

Full disclaimer that Illwei and I used to PM aggressively together as Villagers when we trusted each other - we...stopped being able to work together so successfully about half a year ago, but in all fairness, this is what I remember as her MO in PMs.

51 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

The fact Illwei goes for this explanation (1st level read) and not the obvious 2nd level read (that Striker was bussed and the elims narrowed the pool to make us think they don't care) is just...

Like, come on. More people voted on Striker than not (that are still alive). If none of the elims bussed him, why would they kill Devo if it meant directing us straight to them?

I think that's one of the more reasonable takes on the Devo kill. It would take a lot more to sell me on a pure train. It's not absolutely impossible - I'd need strong reads and good vote track records (which we may not have enough runway for this game, I don't think), but the pure train theory is currently exiled out there on the porch with kayana crack theories like C1 gambit, E!Aman, and E!Archer.

I assume you think it's meant to protect herself/shield teammates then?

At this point, Illwei has been in my null tier simply because of the positives and negatives and I'm struggling to form an overall read outside of the nulls. I really want to read her engagement this cycle as Village, I'm wary because I know Illwei is very smooth as an Elim, and I'm also aware I am unfairly paranoid towards Illwei and I don't want to do the thing where I have reasons to read a player as Village but just kind of disregard them because I have a paranoia/playhistory-skewed very high threshold for me to feel comfortable Village-reading her.

I do need to medicate (sorry, dipping for a short while, being sick has not been fun), but I'm really grateful for the extra time, GM and IM!  Gives me a chance to sit down and work this out. Or talk this out - thread thought scratch table mode works.

[Amanuensis he/him]

28 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I respect your instincts, coming from you. At the same time, I'm in this game to play it, not to sheep, as much as I often really...am tempted to run back to the security blanket of players I trust both because they are in my robust Village reads and I respect their abilities as players.

Just want to clarify the last thing I want is anyone to sheep me  I'm reaching out to you in this manner because I know you're more neutral on illwei / a good voice of reason in general. The thing about my tunnels is that they aren't always perfect. They worked on Archer in MR56. They worked on Striker C1. But they also failed on Mat in MR56 and could be failing here.

I greatly encourage everyone to call me out if I'm crazy. I very well could be. A good part of it too is because the same flag that initially got me on Striker's case C1 got me on Illwei C1 (so I want to believe it worked on her too) and his opinion of her / short interaction of her interest me. I genuinely can't tell if it's an E!Striker pocketing V!Illwei situation or an E!Striker making E!Illwei look better. Which is why I'd love other people to look there and give their thoughts.

28 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Honestly, I've done it when performing vote analysis as a Villager. (I didn't discover vote analysis in early SE so no baseline for E!Kas, think I didn't do it in BT1, just focused on the confirmed Villagers.) But I use a green highlight to indicate that for the sake of my own analysis, I'm considering myself Village, and I use the green highlight for my strong Village reads. Wilson almost MLed me in MR4 for something similar (I was the Wit, so confirmed Village), so I tend to be a bit wary around points involving this :/

I guess to be fair, you could say that there's a non-performative point to me doing so in vote analysis - the point is that it makes the patterns stand out more strikingly as a crude form of data visualisation. I usually do not put myself in my readslist, that is true. I have done so once or twice jokingly as a Villager, and I absolutely did so as the Security Officer to troll, but by and large, I just don't as it's not relevant and distracts people.

So...I guess I could see that in a sort of cumulative argument ("all these small things don't add up.") But I don't know.

Has illwei done it before tho? I didn't see her name on the reads list you linked for the LG.

28 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Okay, but why now? Why not C1 when her teammate got lynched and they had to bus him?

Good question. Could be a point in her favor maybe. But also could be an issue of personal availability, not realizing just how in trouble Striker was until Devo put that public vote in near EoD, blind votes in general, etc. This assumes the decision to bus came from her at the very last minute, not that it was planned in advance.

Also why no real effort C2? Just lost a teammate and I was posting C1 that they were tied together, so letting the heat go down, plus in a V!Ash world there was no point to thread control because others were driving an Ash exe and I was driving Thaid's. In this cycle I've been leading up to voting her anyway so she might know she'd have to go turbo mode to save herself.

Probably likely 3rd teammate is at risk too (JNV?) and she can't afford to let them die if they want a chance of exlo.

@Kasimir cause I edited in more.

Edited March 12, 2022 by Amanuensis