Quick Fix 59: Bachelor--Roshar edition!

[Mailliw73 he/him]

4 minutes ago, Archer said:

*raises hand* Illwei :P. You can't call a half dozen elim slips slips, that's TWTBAW. 

I'm still confused why this is your sticking point. I give one village point to Striker, make a joke, and then mildly sus him because I felt he seemed like he got caught out not actually voting and he was overcompensating by putting it in red in response to the pushback. But I'd given him a village point earlier in the post, so my headspace wasn't that he was fully elimy, so it came out as a 'hmm'. 

Kas is a trust. I think Aman or Kas talked me round to Ash at some point and I've just stuck with that. TUA hasn't committed to pushing a counter-option to them, which I'm going to read village. I was kinda enjoying not having to think about Orlok, and I had them down as not e-e with XP so it would have been great if that flip hadn't been green. Mailliw has had consistently different reads than I, so I'm sus of them (Why are they willing to sus Kas based on voting record but not Illwei, who has a similar record?). It's weird that Illwei aren't on the same page about me, but Mailliw is defending Illwei, so that pair sort of works. Illwei's suspicion of me feels fabricated, especially given their willingness to take a detour through Experience, but I know that's not the most popular pick right now. 

Here's the problem, Illwei said something to the effect of Devo's dead, must not have been bussing. :bIink: That throws Mailliw under the bus. But also, not the best conclusion since the more obvious implication is that I am evil, because. I had this figured out about how the Devo flip was a framing attempt from Illwei and I can't remember the reason. I'll post it if I figure it out. 

Anyway, not e-e? why don't we just kill both and one will be correct. My preference is Illwei or Mailliw today. I'll throw in Orlock as a third to make Ash happy. 

I need sleep goodbye

Um, did you read my longer post? Also, what in the world is that acronym?

[Ashbringer he/him]

1 minute ago, Mailliw73 said:

Um, did you read my longer post? Also, what in the world is that acronym?

Too Wolf to be a Wolf (or is playing too suspiciously to actually be an Elim trying to hide).

I'm personally not a fan of the idea due to... various aspects of my playstyles, but it's one Illwei uses a decent amount.

[Kasimir he/him]

4 hours ago, Mailliw73 said:

Edit: Did Illwei and Kas die or something? This is the quietest I've seen this game.

I died from shock at seeing the longest analysis post from you you've put out so far

Okay, look. Seriously - I'm running on one hour of sleep right now, I have a deadline by the end of today, have been juggling deadlines yesterday. It's really been a brutal week due to sickness because I wake up every other hour coughing my throat bloody so my sleep debt is in the red right now. Rollover should be what, 3AM my time? 2AM? IDER anymore. 

I can't think straight. I'm looking at Illwei's Archer megapost and your Ash post and I'm blinking and nothing is percolating in my head anymore except Hamlet ("Words, words, words.") I'm sorry. I know this could be lylo (unlikely imo, but) or very close to it and I know this matters for us, but I'm done. I'm tapping out. 

My best hope is to get a nap during lunch hour and then try to come back later and put something together when I can actually think rather than my brain screaming everytime it sees words. (I know, I've apparently been deathstaring at everyone at work and communicating in short pained noises.) If not, I can probably pull off a two hour nap at some point, set an alarm, and get on by when the North American crowd do in my evening to work out what I think of everyone. 

@ me if you need me to consolidate. I'll commit to checking at least once before EoC, but realistically, we're screwed if @The Unknown Novel isn't going to show up anyway in the worst case scenario, probably not if we're really versus a surviving team of two.

I'm sorry. I just can't anymore.

Lemme know if y'all need this bluetexted, as always.

[Mailliw73 he/him]

19 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I died from shock at seeing the longest analysis post from you you've put out so far

Okay, look. Seriously - I'm running on one hour of sleep right now, I have a deadline by the end of today, have been juggling deadlines yesterday. It's really been a brutal week due to sickness because I wake up every other hour coughing my throat bloody so my sleep debt is in the red right now. Rollover should be what, 3AM my time? 2AM? IDER anymore. 

I can't think straight. I'm looking at Illwei's Archer megapost and your Ash post and I'm blinking and nothing is percolating in my head anymore except Hamlet ("Words, words, words.") I'm sorry. I know this could be lylo (unlikely imo, but) or very close to it and I know this matters for us, but I'm done. I'm tapping out. 

My best hope is to get a nap during lunch hour and then try to come back later and put something together when I can actually think rather than my brain screaming everytime it sees words. (I know, I've apparently been deathstaring at everyone at work and communicating in short pained noises.) If not, I can probably pull off a two hour nap at some point, set an alarm, and get on by when the North American crowd do in my evening to work out what I think of everyone. 

@ me if you need me to consolidate. I'll commit to checking at least once before EoC, but realistically, we're screwed if @The Unknown Novel isn't going to show up anyway in the worst case scenario, probably not if we're really versus a surviving team of two.

I'm sorry. I just can't anymore.

Lemme know if y'all need this bluetexted, as always.

Sorry about that, didn’t mean to make you feel that you need to push yourself to be here. Take care of yourself for sure! 

[Kasimir he/him]

3 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

Sorry about that, didn’t mean to make you feel that you need to push yourself to be here. Take care of yourself for sure! 

Dwai - to be clear, I'm just saying this as a realistic way of setting expectations for what I can give this cycle. We all know I have an awful habit of overcommitting in SE, and pushing myself past reasonable limits until I am completely burned out.

I'm not saying this for pity points and if anyone wants to put me on the table as a candidate for getting lynched, feel free. (I know I've been suggested on your team so I do want to just address that chull in the room.) I think it's fair that if this is where your suspicions are, go for it. It's important to me that people don't read this as anything other than a raw statement of how little time/energy/bandwidth I have in my current state, and when I expect to be able to get back to do my part. I obviously will respond if I have bandwidth but since I'm pretty much hitting a wall right now in terms of how much left I have to give, I'm just going to shrug and come back if/when I have the recovery time to try to contribute at least a little.

Best effort basis, as my boss keeps saying :/

[Mailliw73 he/him]

So, anyone else have thoughts? I feel like we’re letting the elims take this one as they sit back. 

i can’t reasonably see an e!archer world when striker was up for the exe. Orlok has conveniently jumped on trains a couple times. I feel like there are decent reasons for almost anyone, but no one’s really sharing. 

[Ashbringer he/him]

Kas - I can't see E-Kas letting the Elims win with a whimper instead of a bang, and he's right there's not much he could do about Orlok besides tag them. Then again, idk how much Kas could do about it anyway. (Take care Kas!)

TUN - was viewing the thread somewhat and hasn't said anything. Sused early by Striker. Normally I'm pretty good at finding E!TUN, though... Okay with exeing.

Archer - needs a specific team. Striker was pushing them quite hard D1. Would rather not exe, on retrospect.

Ash - Hi that's me.

Maill - Seems to be the only one left suspicious of me, and their readslist doesn't seem to have changed in general. @Mailliw73, why didn't you vote me C2? Okay with exeing

Illwei - @Illwei, when and why did you vote Thaid C2? 

Orlok - Very low activty, nearly fell to filter same with TUN, and has just... been on several exes without too much reason. @Orlok Tsubodai, why'd you pick Striker to vote on C1 over Archer? Preferred exe

 

Both Maill and Orlok were not present in-thread before Striker made his RP analysis post.

Idk where to go from here

[Illwei]

8 hours ago, Mailliw73 said:

Striker absolutely was bussed unless there's a TUA/Maill/Archer team.

inb4 you just outed your team :P.

3 hours ago, Archer said:

*raises hand* Illwei :P. You can't call a half dozen elim slips slips, that's TWTBAW. 

I will decide what I find to be TWTBAW, Which, I mean, I have already talked about how an Elim would have to have an insane amount of guts to post the "don't distract the elims from their efforts with OOG things." that's the one thing that i think theoretically falls under the category. It doesn't end with "TWTBAW", it ends with a red flip. I'm voting on Either Ash, Archer, or TUA today. Probably not TUA because i liked one of his posts idk which one but yeah.

There is the option that the team remaining is Kas/Maill, but like, not right now  not gonna think about that.

24 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Illwei - @Illwei, when and why did you vote Thaid C2? 

Already talked about this. I was sitting back and being a sheep and didn't really care about thinking til like C3

i voted idk when but like idk whenever i got on my computer

[Ashbringer he/him]

Just now, Illwei said:

i voted idk when but like idk whenever i got on my computer

You should be able to check the timestamp in your PM. Araris okayed that as an info seeking thing.

[Illwei]

3 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

You should be able to check the timestamp in your PM. Araris okayed that as an info seeking thing.

i know

[Ashbringer he/him]

53 minutes ago, Illwei said:

i know

... okay.

 

I'm voting Orlok. But I don't have the info or mental energy to do more organizing. Doesn't seem like most of us do. But if today is exelo, we need to all be on the same page. And we are most definitely not. 

... this is going to make a new page, isn't it.

Edit: Nope! Could have avoided a pun. Now it's just awkward. 

Edited March 15, 2022 by Ashbringer

[Illwei]

1 minute ago, Ashbringer said:

... okay.

 

I'm voting Orlok. But I don't have the info or mental energy to do more organizing. Doesn't seem like most of us do. But if today is exelo, we need to all be on the same page. And we are most definitely not. 

... this is going to make a new page, isn't it.

How do you go from Shading Kas for supposedly "letting orlok die" to voting orlok?

 

[Ashbringer he/him]

Just now, Illwei said:

How do you go from Shading Kas for supposedly "letting orlok die" to voting orlok?

I didn't want E!Kas to win without any suspicion whatsoever, mainly. But he's also right. Nothing he could do about Orlok and Orlok fits my idea of the Elim team - inactive to some degree, inactive in the exes, but also finding a benefit from bussing Striker early. Also they've only got one post in on potential exelo, and I suspect them mildly more than TUN and more than Archer.

[Mailliw73 he/him]

8 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

Kas - I can't see E-Kas letting the Elims win with a whimper instead of a bang, and he's right there's not much he could do about Orlok besides tag them. Then again, idk how much Kas could do about it anyway. (Take care Kas!)

TUN - was viewing the thread somewhat and hasn't said anything. Sused early by Striker. Normally I'm pretty good at finding E!TUN, though... Okay with exeing.

Archer - needs a specific team. Striker was pushing them quite hard D1. Would rather not exe, on retrospect.

Ash - Hi that's me.

Maill - Seems to be the only one left suspicious of me, and their readslist doesn't seem to have changed in general. @Mailliw73, why didn't you vote me C2? Okay with exeing

Illwei - @Illwei, when and why did you vote Thaid C2? 

Orlok - Very low activty, nearly fell to filter same with TUN, and has just... been on several exes without too much reason. @Orlok Tsubodai, why'd you pick Striker to vote on C1 over Archer? Preferred exe

 

Both Maill and Orlok were not present in-thread before Striker made his RP analysis post.

Idk where to go from here

I planned to vote Exp in C2 but that’s the cycle I didn’t actually get a vote in. 

one of <Kas, Illwei, Ash> has to be elim. I see no world where that’s not true. 
 

Edit: I’m on Ash, Ash is on Orlok, and Archer is on Illwei. Who else is voting where? We’ll need to consolidate and we are now past the time of gambitry (sad as that is) and I think we have to all share publicly our votes if we want to have a chance. 

Edited March 15, 2022 by Mailliw73

[Illwei]

1 hour ago, Mailliw73 said:

one of <Kas, Illwei, Ash> has to be elim. I see no world where that’s not true. 

yes

1 hour ago, Mailliw73 said:

Edit: I’m on Ash, Ash is on Orlok, and Archer is on Illwei. Who else is voting where? We’ll need to consolidate and we are now past the time of gambitry (sad as that is) and I think we have to all share publicly our votes if we want to have a chance. 

im on ash if people won't kill Archer

[Archer he/him]

11 hours ago, Mailliw73 said:

Um, did you read my longer post? Also, what in the world is that acronym?

I did and you put Kas in black so I was suspicious. 

Going off his previously stated reads, I'll assume Kas is fine consolidating around Mailliw, Orlock, or maybe TUN. 

Mailliw can do Kas, Illwei, or Ash. 

Ash is voting Orlock. 

Orlock probably isn't voting for me. 

7 hours ago, Illwei said:

How do you go from Shading Kas for supposedly "letting orlok die" to voting orlok?

grrr that's a village thing to say :P. 

I'm moving my vote to Mailliw. Illwie, the Devo kill points to them not caring about shrinking the busser pool. Ash, you're cool with it. Kas, they have a sus voting record. Orlock or TUN, one of you has to be their teammate. Or its Illwei because Mailliw is allergic to voting for them this round. 

Here the thing, I'm fairly committed to the elims being 2 of Illwei/Mailliw/Orlock. If I go Mailliw from a soft village lean on Illwei and TUN, that brings me over to Orlock is one by POE almost. So I can talk myself into an Orlock consolidation. If there's three elims I think we're too split to win anyway. 

Edit: or do I split my votes and go back to C1 reads to look at Ash :D. Because weeeeee 

Edited March 15, 2022 by Archer

[Illwei]

Archer, after everything I've done, you pick the one thing that isn't AI to call village?

3 minutes ago, Archer said:

I'm moving my vote to Mailliw. Illwie, the Devo kill points to them not caring about shrinking the busser pool

Right after you claimed that the devo kill was a trick and shaded me for saying something similar?

[Archer he/him]

3 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Archer, after everything I've done, you pick the one thing that isn't AI to call village?

Right after you claimed that the devo kill was a trick and shaded me for saying something similar?

It sounded better than I can't count on TUN's vote so I need Kas as consolidation support and he's village reading you so I'm rolling with his reads. 

Yeah i think what it was was the Devo thing was meant to look like it frames Ash which made me look bad for pushing him? I think there was a better thought process but I forgot it last night. 

Anywho, I've consistently disagreed with the order of their reads, and the way they arrived at Ash, Kas, Illwei is the pool is through removing themselves from contention. So if I trust those three, they're next up. Or if I get cold feet and vote Ash, he's a nice backup option. Because C1 they acted nifty shifty. I'm confused ok

[Illwei]

6 minutes ago, Archer said:

Anywho, I've consistently disagreed with the order of their reads, and the way they arrived at Ash, Kas, Illwei is the pool is through removing themselves from contention. So if I trust those three, they're next up. Or if I get cold feet and vote Ash, he's a nice backup option. Because C1 they acted nifty shifty. I'm confused ok

I...I don't think anything in your post actually adresses my question. lol.

How I arrived at Ash/Kas is that if someone bussed it's one of them.

[Mailliw73 he/him]

44 minutes ago, Archer said:

I did and you put Kas in black so I was suspicious. 

Going off his previously stated reads, I'll assume Kas is fine consolidating around Mailliw, Orlock, or maybe TUN. 

Mailliw can do Kas, Illwei, or Ash. 

Ash is voting Orlock. 

Orlock probably isn't voting for me. 

grrr that's a village thing to say :P. 

I'm moving my vote to Mailliw. Illwie, the Devo kill points to them not caring about shrinking the busser pool. Ash, you're cool with it. Kas, they have a sus voting record. Orlock or TUN, one of you has to be their teammate. Or its Illwei because Mailliw is allergic to voting for them this round. 

Here the thing, I'm fairly committed to the elims being 2 of Illwei/Mailliw/Orlock. If I go Mailliw from a soft village lean on Illwei and TUN, that brings me over to Orlock is one by POE almost. So I can talk myself into an Orlock consolidation. If there's three elims I think we're too split to win anyway. 

Edit: or do I split my votes and go back to C1 reads to look at Ash :D. Because weeeeee 

I…don’t understand? Kas and Illwei are in black in that post. They’re essentially the same person as far as voting records. I suspect both of them equally, so I have no idea what you mean.

I don’t think you’re evil, but every reason you’ve given for me being so is basically the same for you. You also don’t care if the budding pool shrinks because you didn’t even bother to vote D1. 

[Orlok Tsubodai]

Notes by player, by cycle:
Notes focused on interactions with surviving players, became more about possible teams as I went on.

---

Kasimir:

Cycle One:
1) Votes on Archer, asks why randomness only C1
2) Striker likes Kas' thoughts on Archer, but is wary of Kas (equivocation? (-))
3) Kas doesn't like D1 grand plans
4) Asks Archer to show his workings, retracts on Archer same post, moves to JNV
5) Archer does D1 grand plans whatever alignment, can't see this one coming from elim mindset (Kas v!reads Archer)
6) Does category analysis (alignment conclusions unclear (-))
7) Is conflicted about Ashbringer voting on Archer. Is more supportive of Striker flip than Archer (+)
8) Default null read on Aman and Orlok

Voted on Striker

Kas C1 Conclusions:

Dislike Striker's opinion of Kas. Dislike not being clear of conclusion of category analysis. Voted for Striker over Archer.

Kas D1 reads:

V!Archer

Cycle Two:
1) Thinks Striker was bussed
2) At length justifies his own Striker vote (-)
3) Questions Archer downplaying odds of catching elims D1
4) Further justifies own Striker vote as YOLO, & for thoughts on Matrim. (Overexplaining?)
5) Claims C1 opinion was that he wouldn't lynch Archer, Orlok, Mailliw. Didn't care about lynching Illwei, TUA, Ashbringer
6) Wants to assess elim team disposition re bussing. Doesn't think there was an early bus
7) Village reads Archer
8) Thinks late bus entails elim pool of Illwei, Ashbringer, Orlok
9) Votes on Ashbringer as doesn't like how they're pushing Archer then backing off when questioned
10) Thinks Ashbringer willingness to die for village is gut village, but reads it as emotionally flat, so questions it (equivocation?)
11) Moves from Ashbringer to Thaidakar, at Aman's prompting
12) Moves back to Ashbringer as Thaidakar vote was emotionally based
13) Explains lack of mislynch guilt (-)

Voted on Thaidakar

Kas C2 Conclusions:

Dislike sense of overexplaining.

Kas D2 reads:

V!Archer
E!Ashbringer
Elim pool of Illwei, Orlok, Ashbringer

Cycle Three:
1) Leaning v!Ashbringer, from thread interaction (where did this come from?)
2) Thinks v!Archer due to C1, doesn’t see elim team allowing e!Striker and e!Archer up for lynch
3) Reiterates v!Ash, but as less strong than v!Archer
4) Thinks Elims amongst JNV, Illwei, TUA, Experience, Maill, Bort, Orlok
5) Village reads Maill and Bort. Votes on JNV
6) Questions Illwei on her doubt of v!Archer, but wants to hear Illwei out on it
7) Not e!Maill as e!Maill would have thread controlled away from Striker lynch
8) Thinks Illwei trying to protect Ashbringer
9) Is tempted to flip Ashbringer after they raised IKYK about elim killed players’ reads, & Illwei’s suggestion of their kill pattern. E!Ashbringer/kills motivated that way feels too obvious
10) Defends Illwei’s change of style
11) Reiterates defence of Maill
12) Illwei in null tier
13) Pushes JNV

Voted on JNV

Kas C3 Conclusions:

Unclear on thought evolution on Ashbringer. Willing to defend Archer and Maill.

Kas D3 reads:

V!Archer, v!Mailliw
v!Ashbringer?
Uncertain about Illwei
Elim pool Illwei, TUA, Maill, Orlok

Cycle Four:
1) Defends Archer, acknowledges defence of Archer
2) Pushes e!Orlok on end of C1 post
3) Dislikes Experience’s end of C1 and C3, votes Experience
4) Thinks it would have been gutsy for e!Maill to be explicit about forgetting to vote Experience C2 at start of C3

Voted for Experience

Kas C4 Conclusions:

Committed to v!Archer. Further defence of Maill. Pushes e!Orlok

Kas D4 reads:

V!Archer, v!Maill
e!Orlok

Cycle Five:
1) Asks Ashbringer whether he really believes v!Orlok
2) Suspects e!Orlok
3) Thinks Illwei’s C3 felt village
4) Suggests possible four elim world (don’t believe this is credible)

Kas C5 Conclusions:

Pushing e!Orlok.

Kas D5 reads:

v!Illwei
e!Orlok

Overall:

Kas believes Archer, Maill, Illwei, maybe Ashbringer are village, therefore Orlok/TUA elim team?

Don’t see this as credible belief. There was a cycle where TUA and I were both inactive, and a kill occurred. Orlok/TUA e/e not possible.

---

TUA:

Cycle One:
1) Places retaliatory vote on Archer, whilst agreeing with him
2) Striker expresses suspicion of TUA
3) Striker says they’ll rethink suspicion of TUA when pressed on it
4) Says retaliatory vote on Archer was a joke
5) Might vote for Illwei, has no reads (not e/e with Illwei?)
6) Agrees with Archer’s idea of random voting as doesn’t want the game to be vanilla, but wants accountability (self-contradictory?)

TUA C1 Conclusions:

Dislike internal contradictions. Not e/e with Illwei. Striker distancing? More likely that Striker couldn’t explain suspicion.

TUA D1 reads:

None

Cycle Two:

No notes

Cycle Three:

No notes

Cycle Four:
1) Forgot about the game
2) Thinks Kas described their playstyle well
3) Disagrees with Illwei about Striker having a similar approach to TUA and Ash (sus of Ashbringer?)
4) “Really dislikes Illwei”, would look at Kas if Illwei elim.

Voted on Illwei

TUA C4 Conclusions:

Unsure where read is coming from.

TUA D4 reads:

E!Illwei, possibly e!Kas

Cycle Five:

No notes

Overall:

Consistent pushing Illwei, hasn’t given reasons. Very little to analyse. Could be e/e with anyone except Illwei/Orlok

---

Archer:

Cycle One:
1) Expresses view that we should introduce uncertainty in voting. Espouses broad suspicions and private trust lists (+/-)
2) Thinks Distribution 3/12, as hidden voting benefits eliminators, could be convinced of 4/11 (Why? If mechanic favours elims, why suggest more of it, why would 4/11 + elim favouring mechanic be balanced?)
3) Asks us not to compare him to historic!Archer. Jokes about Kas being elim.
4) Striker is suspicious of Archer, Archer is his preferred target (+)
5) Is happy to play voting straight from C2 (So why is C1 different?)
6) Is surprised that Striker supports JNV
7) Is voted on by Striker, after Striker questioned why there wasn’t a vote (+/-)
8) Striker reiterates suspicion of Archer
9) Is suspicious of Aman for directness of his attack on Striker (-)
10) Thinks Striker villagery for forgetting to vote (-)
11) Thinks TUA overreacting to pressure or poke voting back.
12) Is suspicious of Ashbringer for wanting an Archer flip

Did not vote C1

Archer C1 Conclusions:

Very much unsure. Do not see how it makes sense for Striker to go after Archer, and so must hold a reduced prior probability of e!Archer, but tempered by later Striker interactions. Move to Ashbringer late cycle possible if e/e with Striker, gut just don’t feel like that’s likely

Archer D1 reads:

E!TUA? e!Ashbringer?

Cycle Two:
1)  Mildly suspicious of Mailliw for checking thread close to rollover without posting
2) Thinks elims started bussing when Striker moved to Ashbringer
3) Says he should be lock village as voted for by Striker (-)
4) Doesn’t think Kas e/e with Striker
5) Doesn’t think Illwei e/e with Striker
6) Doesn’t think TUA elim
7) Mailliw could be e/e with Striker
8) Suggests Orlok bussed Striker
9) Votes on Ashbringer for interactions with Striker and vote on Archer
10) Heart said e!Striker was too easy
11) Willing to vote for Orlok

Voted on Ashbringer

Archer C2 Conclusions:

Dislike calling out Orlok only. Feels surface level easy, without actually reading my posts. Unsure of view on Ashbringer – suggesting bussing started with Striker’s move to Ashbringer as Striker’s vote was distancing?

Archer D2 reads:

V!Kasimir, v!Illwei, v!TUA
e?Maill
e!Orlok, e!Ashbringer

Cycle Three:
1) Thinks Devo flip odd
2) Voting again on Ashbringer
3) Also sees Illwei/Orlok as options (yet didn’t think Illwei e/e with Striker)
4) Kas in village core
5) Thinks Orlok and Ashbringer looked like they were bussing Striker
6) Thinks Illwei buying time by suggesting TUA as peripheral candidate
7) Clears Bort for voting pre-bussing time
8) If they (Archer) were e!, would have come out stronger against Striker for cred.
9) Feels Mailliw’s reads list was off

Voted for JNV

Archer C3 Conclusions:

Inconsistency on Illwei – what made read change? Ties to Kas from other side. Dislike “If I were evil I’d have done x)

Archer D3 reads:

V!Kas, v!TUA
E!Ashbringer, e!Orlok, e!Illwei, e?Mailliw

Cycle Four:
1) Justifies JNV vote, thought JNV e/e with Illwei
2) Suspicious of Experience for C1 vote on Ashbringer
3) Asks TUA & Ashbringer whether they’d vote for Experience, Mailliw, or Illwei
4) Argues misplayed C1 if evil
5) Thinks TUA being overly defensive

Voted for Experience

Archer C4 Conclusions:

Dislike vote on JNV for Illwei suspicion. Not sure where Illwei suspicion even came from, but Archer votes for JNV based on suspicion of a player he won’t vote for. E!Archer/e!Kas?

Archer D4 reads:

E!Illwei, e!Mailliw

Cycle Five:
1) Votes on Illwei, thinks he is TWTBAW and Illwei should know that
2) Trusts Kas. Believes v!Ashbringer, v!TUA as no TUA counterwagon
3) Wants to vote for Maill, Illwei or Orlok

Archer C5 Conclusions:

Reasoning for Orlok is solely late post? Doesn’t appear to have read my tables or posts at all. Pushing e!Orlok w/Kas. Haven’t seen any argument for Maill or Illwei either.

Archer D5 reads:

V!Kas, v!Ashbringer, v!TUA
e!Orlok, e!Illwei, e?Maill

Overall:

Consistently trusting Kas. Dislike how Archer is arriving at votes. Despite D1 & reduced likelihood of Striker, believe possible given later cycles.

 

Posting as running out of time in cycle. Have notes handwritten, typing remainder up now.

[Illwei]

Still think there's two in Ash/Kas/Archer

[Archer he/him]

Yeah, sorry Orlok, as a mobile player I haven't really followed much of what you've said. Who ya voting for? 

1 hour ago, Mailliw73 said:

I…don’t understand? Kas and Illwei are in black in that post. They’re essentially the same person as far as voting records. I suspect both of them equally, so I have no idea what you mean.

I don’t think you’re evil, but every reason you’ve given for me being so is basically the same for you. You also don’t care if the budding pool shrinks because you didn’t even bother to vote D1. 

Your system goes village green to black to orange to evil red, right? 

Are you willing to vote Illwei today? Does that change if Orlock votes Kas? 

[Orlok Tsubodai]

Ashbringer:

Cycle One:
1) Places stab vote on Devotary
2) Need to have balance in use of hidden voting. Voting in secret can be useful, need to work out how. (Starting with conclusion, then looking for evidence (-))
3) Wants to avoid C2 everyone justifying votes as random, suggests two votes to create some uncertainty (+)
4) Striker agrees with Ashbringer, doesn’t want Ashbringer lynched before Archer (-)
5) Ran the previous anon-voting game. Wants hidden voting to happen as there are possibilities with it
6) Striker expresses suspicion of Ashbringer
7) Says he is voting for Archer for villagery post re Striker
8) Suspicious of TUA for retaliatory voting, says he (Ashbringer) has a tendency to tunnel TUA
9) Thinks Archer should be lynched as Archer is tied to Ashbringer’s own alignment. E!Archer seems thought to mean e!Ashbringer (so has TMI and thinks v!Archer might help him?)
10) Wants to emphasise the independence of his idea re voting from Archer’s
11) May not vote, is confused (-)

Voted on Striker

Ashbringer C1 Conclusions:

A much less positive C1 than I had been reading. Not e/e with Archer. Possible TMI. Dislike claim of confusion

Ashbringer D1 reads:

E!Archer, e?TUA

Cycle Two:
1) Voted on Striker 5-10 minutes before end of cycle, in self-preservation
2) Gives exact time of vote
3) Will vote for Experience
4) Is willing to die for the village
5) Says he feels in an elim mindset. Is resigned to being lynched.
6) Doesn’t like feeling like he’s not being lynched just because of his willingness to die
7) Votes on Thaidakar in response to Thaid self-preservation vote

Voted on Thaidakar

Ashbringer C2 Conclusions:

Tone and what he’s saying feels much more strongly villager-y than C1. Dislike Kas equivocating on Ashbringer’s resignation – read as very village to me.

Ashbringer D2 reads:

E!Experience

Cycle Three:
1) Asks Archer who gave him (Ashbringer) support, notes only possible option from Thaid voters is Illwei
2) Looks at reads of dead players, calls out that both of those killed suspected Ashbringer
3) Gut leaning e!Illwei
4) Votes on Maill or Orlok as potential Devotary killers
5) Vote is on Maill, could be convinced to go JNV

Voted on Maill

Ashbringer C3 Conclusions:

Consistent views within cycle

Ashbringer D3 reads:

E!Illwei, e!Maill, e!Orlok

Cycle Four:
1) Ideas on Archer are tainted by Striker (don’t follow this)
2) Questions TUA on wallpost defence
3) Would be ok with TUA, Maill or Archer
4) Asks if Archer had a reason for not voting D1

Ashbringer C4 Conclusions:

Significant shift in suspicions from C3 – what happened to Orlok/Illwei, where has suspicion of Archer come from?

Ashbringer D4 reads:

E!TUA, e!Maill, e!Archer

Cycle Five:
1) Questions Kas’ willingness to let Orlok die
2) Asks everyone to give three most suspected players
3) Would rather not lynch Archer, is ok with lynching TUA, Maill, but prefers to lynch Orlok
4) Is voting for Orlok

Ashbringer C5 Conclusions:

Rationale for voting on me being? Change again re Archer.

Ashbringer D5 reads:

E!Orlok, e!Maill, e!TUA

Overall:

Nothing anywhere on Kas. Back and forth on Archer, don’t see e/e however based on early cycles. Consistently ok with lynching Mailliw. On balance, village

---

Mailliw:

Cycle One:
1) Gut elim read of Archer, read eased up (+)
2) Opposes forced thread transparency
3) “What is the point of the mechanic if not used”
4) Has gut suspicions, doesn’t want to share them D1
5) Is supported by Kas

Voted on JNV

Mailliw C1 Conclusions:

Gut village read on point 4

Mailliw D1 reads:

None explicit

Cycle Two:
1) Thinks Experience’s vote on Ashbringer feels off (+)
2) In C1 was initially suspicious of Archer, backed off as read more of Archer’s style. Voted on JNV for bad vibes from first post. Would have switched to Experience if had time. Thought vote would be tighter (+ if true)
3) If there is a busser, thinks it is Ashbringer. Kas/Aman ring true. Hasn’t looked at Orlok’s tables.
4) Thinks elims may not have bussed if they thought there were fewer votes on Striker
5) Reiterates his belief that elims are more likely to be on other trains

Voted on no one C2

Mailliw C2 Conclusions:

Village read – agreed on #1 at the time.

Mailliw D2 reads:

V!Kasimir, v?Archer
E!Experience, e?Ashbringer

Cycle Three:
1) Thought he had voted on Experience, forgot to vote
2) Reads Orlok, Archer as village
3) Null on Kas/Illwei. E!Ashbringer.
4) Null on TUA, thinks e!Orlok would have made more of an effort
5) Suspects Ashbringer’s more following reasoning from Illwei. Thinks we need Ashbringer or Archer to flip for information
6) Thinks Devotary was killed because of her suspicion of Ash, wants an Ashbringer flip
7) Will vote on JNV, but would go back to Ashbringer

Voted on Ashbringer

Mailliw C3 Conclusions:

Given 5, then v!Illwei? Consistent. Village read.

Mailliw D3 reads:

V!Orlok, v!Archer, implicit v!Illwei
Null: Kas, Illwei, TUA
e!Ashbringer

Cycle Four:
1) Thinks Experience’s post and TUA’s long post read weirdly. On board with Archer
2) Agrees with Archer that TUA defensive
3) Illwei reads very villager

Voted on Experience

Mailliw C4 Conclusions:

Nothing new. Consistent progression on Illwei

Mailliw D4 reads:

V!Archer, v!Illwei
e!TUA

Cycle Five:
1) Reads Illwei village on effort, how she’s pushing for reads, and tone
2) Ashbringer sus for D1 interactions with Striker
3) Archer still feels villager
4) Thinks Ashbringer must be the vote today
5) One of Kas/Illwei/Ashbringer has to be an eliminator

Mailliw C5 Conclusions:

Agree largely with #1. Disagree on 3, but consistent from Maill. Where has e!TUA read gone?

Mailliw D5 reads:

V!Illwei, v!Archer
e!Ashbringer, e?Kas

Overall:

Strong village read on Mailliw. Tonal, consistent progression. Sensible vote suggestions.

---

Illwei:

Cycle One:
1) Thinks three eliminators
2) Doesn’t like secret votes, wants us to talk to minimise hiding eliminators
3) Doesn’t see anything wrong with vanilla game
4) Votes on Matrim for his read on Illwei (wary of pocketing? (+))
5) Striker thinks Illwei makes good points, agrees with Illwei’s suspicion of Matrim
6) Striker thinks Illwei is working out the game rather than being performative (this was based on Illwei suggesting 3 elims. TMI from Striker?)
7) Mistook Aman’s summary of Striker’s reads as Aman’s own (+)
8) Is iffy on Archer, doesn’t think TUA has been villager-y

Voted on Striker

Illwei C1 Conclusions:

Gut village from 2, 3, 4, 7.

Illwei D1 reads:

E?Archer, not v!TUA

Cycle Two:
1) Doesn’t remember when she voted, but voted on Striker for his defensiveness and forced reads list
2) Calls attention to Archer’s interactions with Striker. Suspicious of Archer.
3) Won’t defend Ashbringer, but has a tonal village read on them. Thinks e!Ashbringer implies e/e/e Ashbringer/Archer/Striker

Voted on Thaidakar

Illwei C2 Conclusions:

Where did vote on Thaid come from?

Illwei D2 reads:

E!Archer, e?Ashbringer

Cycle Three:
1) Reads order: v – Kasimir, TUA, Archer, Ashbringer, Mailliw, Orlok – e
2) Thinks Devotary kill might imply no Striker bussers
3) Thinks eliminators amongst: Mailliw, Orlok, Bort, Ashbringer, TUA
4) Is pushing tiered commitments (+)
5) v!Archer, not necessarily v!Kas
6) Wants TUA or Ashbringer to flip, votes TUA
7) Questions Maill on why Orlok would increase effort
8) Suggests Archer has TMI re the time Striker bussing started
9) Doesn’t believe in v!Archer world, trying to sheep consensus
10) Thinks TUA has elim equity
11) e!Archer belief furthered by Archer’s move to e!Ashbringer
12) v!Kasimir

Voted on JNV

Illwei C3 Conclusions:

Continued village read, nothing disruptive. Like way of thinking about Archer.

Illwei D3 reads: (See above)

V!Kasimir, v!Ashbringer, e!Archer, e!Orlok.

Cycle Four:
1) Feels like Archer openwolfing. Calls out shading Aman, feeling of an agenda in his posts.
2) V!Kas. Looking into TUA, Experience, Archer
3) v!Ashbringer from overworrying about being tied to Archer
4) Archer can’t argue that his D1 was poor just because he didn’t vote Striker. Striker not necessarily a lost cause
5) Doesn’t want to commit effort to thinking about e!Archer yet, if v!consensus right on him
6) Thinks Archer and Experience look partnered
7) Is voting on Experience

Voted for Experience

Illwei C4 Conclusions:

Like approach re Archer.

Illwei D4 reads:

V!Kasimir
e?TUA, e?Experience, e!Archer

Cycle Five:
1) Would have voted Archer if she had known Experience was voting Archer
2) One of Kas/Ashbringer is an eliminator. 1+ of Kas, Ashbringer, Archer
3) Votes for Archer
4) Asks Mailliw why he reads v!Illwei
5) Voting on one of Ashbringer, Archer or TUA today, probably not TUA

Illwei C5 Conclusions:

Consistent PoE, strong village tone. Obviously not e/e with Archer

Illwei D5 reads:

E!Archer, e?Kas, e?Ashbringer

Overall:

Comes across as solving, nothing to challenge village read. Like progression. Agree re Archer.

[Orlok Tsubodai]

I'm aware the above is a lot to read, but would ask that you all do (if only because it took a lot of effort to do). Apologies for increasing shorthand towards the end - have spent a long time reading through the game today, and writing up notes took much longer than anticipated.

Summary:

(Please do read my workings above)

Believe in v!Illwei, v!Mailliw. 

Worried about consensus read of Kas, particularly with consistent ties to Archer throughout the game. Would bet on Striker/Archer/Kas team. Think Kas has equivocated throughout game, really unsure where such strong village reads on them come from. Will vote for Archer this cycle, but strongly encourage those of you with firm v!Kas to reconsider it.

Edit: @Illwei @Ashbringer @Mailliw73 @The Unknown Novel

Edited March 15, 2022 by Orlok Tsubodai