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Hi! School's canceled today because of weather so I'll be around!

So Stick was covering for arson by claiming kills. Not the greatest strategy honesly since the kill sstarting up next would seem strange in arson context but understandable

Now the thin gthat makes me feel weird about the Stick vote is this

Quote
  On 2/20/2022 at 2:19 AM, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Araris (2): Orlok, JNV
Szeth (1): Illwei
Stick (1): Araris
Illwei (1): Stick
Devotary (1): Thaidakar

This is kinda weird. I feel like something’s off…

@Dannnex @STINK @Szeth_Pancakes @The Unknown Aon Would appreciate your votes

edit: ninjad, ignore the tag Dannex sorry 

and this

Quote
  23 hours ago, STINK said:

Alright peeps what's up. Migraine kinda gone for now and we pray for its continued disappearance. 

Votes don't really seem locked in on any one person?

Well yes, but actually no. xD Here's the VC:

Araris (1): JNV
Szeth (1): Illwei
Stick (2): Araris, Orlok
Illwei (1): Stick
Devotary (1): Thaidakar

What if all of us got RNG'ed in a 5-way tie ( ͡° ͡° ͜ʖ ͡° ͡°) 

They seem actively invested in Araris living and also nonchalant about dying which makes sense because they already uysed the explosion. But they're immune to kills! That would be more valuabl than Araris. But why didn't they just vote on someone? They could have moved to Szeth or Devotary or Araris here. The only conclusion I can draw from that is that they didn't want to vote any of them. But why?

If the vote wasn't a gambit the pool is me, Thaidakar, Szeth, The Unknown Aon

I thought we kind of collectivvely agreed Thaidakar was a little too clueless? Maybe? But honestly I have some lingering bad vibes. But! Thaidakar definitely killed those people. I know I said this about Stick and was wrong but that was arson. For Thaidakar to be elim and also have a kill role strikes me as strange 

The Unknown Aon will get inactivity killed probably but if they don't I think they were vanilla and that was important for some reason?

If the vote wats a gambit the pool is Araris, Devotary, STINK, Orlok

Devotary is obviously a neutral

Araris... So at first they didn't like the Stick train then after Illwei's reasonless vote on them they suddenly pivot and go with it and I don't understand that and I feel like I'm just tunnelling at this point but seriously I don't really get them. Before they were like "the interactions feel not evil" and then they think "oh Stick is good enough to fake that" and I... I don't know if this is just doubt because I disagree wtih a lot of their opinions or genuinely good points or a lot of paranoia but I can't let go of this

STINK and Orlok seem to have the tsame reason of "that role makes no sense" which is... fair. I like that reason and it feels good

 

But there are probably two elims left so there has to be a reasonable team 

Player list and conclusions if each is elim

  • The Unknown Aon. Hard to conlcude anything I'll come back to this later
  • Araris. Id think better of Thaidakar 
  • Devotary. Im not even considering this one honestly
  • STINK. I... don't know I'll have to look again give me a bit
  • Szeth. If they're elim it's prbobaly not a bus so then I'd look at... Thaidakar?
  • Thaidakar. If they're elim... I don't know. I'm having trouble ocnceiving this possibility which is a problme so I'll look into  it more later
  • Orlok. Maybe... Araris?

So the main conclusion is that I focus too much on what I want to be true instead of thinking logically. That sucks

I persoally want to vote Araris. If Im wrong, and I probably am, I'm sorry but I just can't conceive of the world where they aren't. So Araris and honestly if you want to vote me out right here right now I'm down for that 

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On a polar night in the midst of frozen flowers, Eiro sat and wove flowers in a particular pattern. End over end, bud over bud, and soon the pattern was complete. They donned the flower crown and waited for the sun to claw its way past the horizon, though they knew they would not live to see it. They held a piece of paper in two pinched fingers, the last thing they would ever write. It wasn’t long, just a few lines, but it was all they had. Everything was in order. The flowers were watered, the lights were extinguished, the hopes were put away. Nothing left but to wait and watch the fire die.

To those who have killed me:

When I am gone, please do not leave me in this wasteland where nothing returns to dust. I want to be cremated and my ashes scattered over the flowers I spent my life caring for. That would be fitting. My death upon my life, and soon nothing will remain. I will be nothing, and there will still be frozen corpses in Antarctica. I will be nothing, and that is for the best.

Fair fortune,

Eiro

 

It’s 5-2-1 right now probably so if Devotary kills a villager we lose and if Devotary kills no one it goes to 3-2-1 which honestly seems like an unwinnable situation because I don’t think anyone trusts anyone at this point. If Devotary does manage to kill any elim it goes to 3-1-1 which basically a do or die situation but possibly winnable if Devotary kills the right person? Of course this is all assuming I get voted but with the way the votes are leaning right now it doesn’t look good

If we do have a next cycle… Well I still want Araris dead. I’m willing to think about all the quiet people

Wait I forgot The Unknown Aon will inactivity die Devotary you  have to kill someone and hope you hit an elim or we just lose. Or The Unknown Aon is an elim but then again you should still kill someone if so because we won’t auto lose if they are. Pick anyone you distrust at all because I don't trust my own judgement right now

This was a great game. I had fun. I hope everyone else did. I think the roles and rules and everything were cool. Have a good polar night everyone!

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I'm working through the thread (about midway through C3 presently), focusing on the remaining players, and whilst I'll be done before rollover want to get my thoughts down in time for the American players to see tonight.

To start, we have eight players left.

Arguing from balance in a blackout game with an arsonist and a janitor on a team feels like a mistake, but even ignoring the balance issues two eliminator kills would present, I'm prepared to clear Devotary of being evil on the basis of her C1/C2 suspicion of Stick (which was remarkably on point), and the Stick/Archer pressure on her that resulted from it. I think it's much, much more likely that she is a serial killer, and whilst we're just taking her on her word that her win condition is to be amongst the last three players, rather than having to kill us all, don't see that we have a choice in the matter.

Along with player behaviour, we have the following lynches to help us consider who remaining might be an eliminator (I'm going to mark Illwei as village both for her suspicion of Stick, and more importantly, having been hit by the eliminator kill):

Cycle One:

Matrim's Dice (5): Experience, Ashbringer, Karnatheon, Archer, _Stick_, JNV, Thaidakar the Ghostblood
Karnatheon (2): Kasimir, Araris Valerian, Tani, Amanuensis
_Stick_ (5): Illwei, Matrim's Dice, StrikerEZ, Devotary of Spontaneity

Cycle Two:

Karnatheon (6): Experience, Kasimir, StrikerEZ, Ashbringer, Tani, Devotary of Spontaneity, Amanuensis
Devotary of Spontaneity (5): Araris Valerian, Karnatheon, Archer, _Stick_, JNV
StrikerEZ (2): STINK, Thaidakar the Ghostblood

Cycle Three:

Archer (10): Kasimir, Araris Valerian, Ashbringer, Tani, Devotary of Spontaneity, _Stick_, JNV, Amanuensis, Thaidakar the Ghostblood, Orlok Tsubodai
Amanuensis (2): Illwei, Archer

Cycle Four:

Tani (4): Illwei, The Unknown Aon, Devotary of Spontaneity, Thaidakar the Ghostblood
Devotary of Spontaneity (3): Araris Valerian, Ashbringer, Tani, Orlok Tsubodai
Illwei (2): _Stick_, JNV

 


 

Just lost two hours work to a page refresh.

It's now 1:30am and I think I might actually cry, so I'm just going to have to summarise where I got to.

Clearing Stink circumstances of their vote last cycle condemning Stick. Clearing TUA for suspicion of Stick C2, their response to Archer C1.

Szeth - unsure about. Stick suggests they might be e/e with Tani in C2, and I struggle to see why they wouldn't have read C5 with e!Stick as e!Szeth.

Thaidakar I find unreadable, which I normally see as suspicious, but always struggle to read chaotic players. Struggle to understand how they could misread their role as doing nothing if it hits a villager whilst claiming the following cycle that it only works on epics, but they were determined to vote on Archer C1/C2, going so far as accusing him of being an elim for PMing the GMs. Conclusion - likely village.

Araris - still caught up on their role presenting balance issues, hadn't otherwise got a strong read. Not likely e/e with JNV - who I am most suspicious of.

JNV - tied repeatedly to Stick and Archer in voting, has this odd post when voting Matrim over Stick: 

 

Dislike their C5, although defence of Stick who was near certain to be lynched as elim feels odd.

Not committed to multiple elims - think e!Karnatheon plausible given e!Archer, e!Stick, and e!JNV. Expecting four deaths this cycle - lynch, elim kill, Devo, and TUA. If remaining elims are amongst less active players will be disappointed at how they've chosen to play. Initially wanted to suggest we lynched Araris and had Devo kill JNV - can't see both being village, but more inclined now to just vote on JNV, although I dislike the lack of push back to the lynch - where's the elim counterproposal?

Will try to retype my notes tomorrow morning, if I can stomach it again - feeling really quite upset about losing what this post was.

 

 

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It's dangerous for me to kill Araris since that could easily hit me instead, so wanting him dead requires an exe instead of my kill. I'm also willing to exe JNV but I don't know who my kill would be after that. I don't think he and JNV would be on a team together, especially with today's vote.

If JNV was evil and knew Stick was going to flip elim, asking me not to kill anyone suggests that one of the inactives (Szeth or Stink at this point) is evil since that's who I'd mentioned putting in a kill on. If JNV, Stink, and Stick were all evil they could have voted for Szeth or me and had a 50% chance of success, which isn't that good actually. If it's JNV and Szeth then JNV is being partially bussed today which wouldn't give e!Szeth great odds of winning since the only people I would kill other than him and JNV are hmn actually I can't think of people that are likely to be elims. Maybe Thaid but the early votes for Archer are good.

l can't see why e!Karn would riot the vote from a safe 7-4 to a 5-5 tie between Mat and Stick and risk losing what's likely their best role.

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55 minutes ago, The Unknown Aon said:

Blatant filter dodge. Will do more stuff tomorrow, was without wifi over the weekend and have just been busy in general.

@The Unknown Aon, rollover is in 7.5 hours. Without needing to provide any justification, could you give two names for the players you’d be happiest to see dead? If you have no preference, then any two names are fine.

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2 minutes ago, STINK said:

What actually is the case against Araris?

I think the case is materially less strong that that against JNV - the primary argument for lynching him in my mind is hedging our position.

My C1 and C2 notes on Araris are as follows:

C1:
1) Thought Matrim's D1 reads list a sham
2) Agrees with Aman about v!Archer
3) Moves onto voting for Matrim C1 when Stick overtook Matrim in the vote count
4) Retracts on Matrim close to the end of C1
C2:
1) Archer supported Araris' C1 Matrim reasoning
2) Is village read by Stick
3) Thought C1 was v/v, doesn't think a flip from Stick would be the worst thing
4) Votes on Devotary with Archer, Stick, and JNV

Beyond this, we have his role - swapping places with his target, meaning that he's immune to a kill unless the eliminators guess his target correctly.

I think Devotary makes a good argument about Karnatheon, suggesting that unless we thought the eliminators had three starting players, we have two eliminators remaining, and are in a 5-2-1 situation. Whilst I'm a supporter of flipping JNV, I dislike the lack of pushback in this situation. If we're wrong about JNV, and Devotary hits a villager, we end up 2-2-1 next cycle. If JNV is a villager, I think Araris is more likely to be evil. There's a part of me inclined to take a safe 3-1-1 (by killing both JNV and Araris) over betting the house on JNV's flip, even if I do think it's a fairly safe one.

@Araris Valerian, you were given a soothe item at one point. Did you ever use this, and if so when and on whom?

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18 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

Beyond this, we have his role - swapping places with his target, meaning that he's immune to a kill unless the eliminators guess his target correctly.

This role doesn't necessarily seem alignment indicative to me? I can see arguments for this role being useful on both sides, whereas what we've seen of the two elim roles so far is most decidedly not so, if ya get what I mean. 

 

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9 minutes ago, STINK said:

This role doesn't necessarily seem alignment indicative to me? I can see arguments for this role being useful on both sides, whereas what we've seen of the two elim roles so far is most decidedly not so, if ya get what I mean. 

 

I think the argument is less whether it’s useful, and more whether it’s balanced for a villager to hold, but I’m certainly not suggesting the role as the reason to lynch him, at this point.

I think the only compelling argument is that of hedging - are we sufficiently confident of e!JNV to risk a 2-2-1 next cycle?

The answer may well be yes - and I do think JNV is our best shot at an elim. Certainly doing anything other than lynching them relies on the buy in it Devotary (although given her claimed goal, a 3-1-1 next cycle guarantees her victory the following cycle (lynch + elim kill results in three players remaining, even without her kill).

I’m at a doctor’s appointment from 2pm to 4:45pm today, but will be back just before rollover. In the interim I intend to look at potential pairings - if JNV is evil, who is his teammate? Likewise, if Araris is evil, who would he be on a team with?

I’m moderately committed to v!Stink - I think 3 eliminators with 11 players remaining is too strong a position to throw away for a bus, even if Stick was having difficulty arguing her innocence. I think the same argument applies to a weaker extent to Araris, who was voting on Stick before I did, but when they weren’t under real lynch pressure, and who would have struggled to withdraw from lynching Stick after focus moved onto them.

(Increasingly talking myself into v!Araris, which again just sets my hackles off about where JNV’s teammate is).

Post to follow looking at pairings, but been burnt already by refresh this cycle, so will post what I’ve got now)

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If we take e!JNV as given, we then can clear Araris. If we further take v!Stink and v!Orlok as given, alongside n!Devotary, we have Thaidakar, Szeth, and The Unknown Aon as our pool for our remaining eliminator.

Szeth’s first reaction to seeing today’s rollover was to clear Araris - which is incompatible with e!JNV pushing his lynch. I think e!JNV entails v!Szeth, leaving us with The Unknown Aon and Thaidakar as our pool of suspects.

TUA has given us very little to evaluate, and Thaidakar evidence in both directions. Last cycle JNV put TUA in his “do not kill” list, with Thaidakar in his middle category.

Thaidakar has voted for JNV (alongside Araris and Szeth). I think e!JNV leads to e!TUA. I’ve been mentally clearing TUA on their D1 claim as Regular, and their D2 suspicion of Stick, both of which I think are more likely from a villager. I’m not firmly committed to v!TUA, although don’t see why e!JNV asks Devotary not to make a kill with e!TUA, when Devotary’s target list was Stink, Szeth, and Dannnex.

[My instinct would be to lynch Thaidakar and ask Devo to shoot TUA if e!JNV. My guess is that if JNV is lynched, one of @STINK and I are hit by the elim kill, and Devotary kills a villager (so probable the other of us). This would leave 3-1-1 next cycle, so with a lynch on one of them, Devo’s kill on the other, and the elim kill Devotary ends in the final three players.]

On the other side of things, if we have e!Araris, I think we can rule out e!JNV, and so again are only considering Szeth, TUA, and Thaidakar. I’ll note that Araris’ mid-cycle switch onto Stick last cycle makes bussing possible, and so e!Araris would reduce the certainty of v!STINK, but v!STINK feels pretty safe to me.

If we have e!Araris (and would ask @STINK that you read just C5, to look at their switch from defence of Stick to being the second vote on her (after Illwei) to give me a second opinion on this, then e!Szeth is more plausible. Araris has asked Devotary to kill Thaidakar, making e!Araris/e!Thaidakar unlikely, leading me to a pairing with Szeth or TUA.

Working through this, I can’t see Thaidakar paired with either Araris or JNV - so (acknowledging that it’s possible that we have v!Araris and v!JNV), will return to removing them from my suspicion pool.

At this point, I’m minded to suggest that we lynch JNV, and that @Devotary of Spontaneity kills Szeth tonight. I think if JNV flips village, there’s a strong chance  of e!Szeth, whereas if JNV flips elim, v!Szeth prolongs the game for Devotary. Either way, we end up at 3-1-1 tomorrow.

I haven’t considered worlds with v/v Araris/JNV fully. Again, however, our pool there is small - Thaidakar, Szeth, and TUA. (Note again, this is predicated on v!Stink, and I’m sure I’m being cursed by the dead doc for this assumption, but it’s one I’m making and sticking with). Further thoughts on these worlds may follow, but happy with primary conclusion:

Thaidakar unlikely with Araris or JNV, Szeth a very good hedging kill against v!JNV.

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1 hour ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

If we have e!Araris (and would ask @STINK that you read just C5, to look at their switch from defence of Stick to being the second vote on her (after Illwei) to give me a second opinion on this, then e!Szeth is more plausible.

1, that's an open-ended bracket :P

Secondly, yeah that does read really weird in retrospect where like even when they were the only vote on Stick they were still saying they wanted like 4 other people voted instead but, I'm really not sure this game euuuuugggghhhhh

Between JNV for Stick/Archer mindmeldiness (which seems to be the case) or Araris, it seems more likely it's JNV? 

But then some people are just coming outta the woodwork to vote JNV which is kinda hm so hmmm

Probably a follow up post later while I go think on things and make lunch

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1 minute ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Here we go with the vote on JNV. Since it's 5-1 against JNV, if e!JNV it's either it's a bus or the other elim is Stink/TUA. I feel pretty good about v!Stink though and definite v!Orlok. Not much I can do about Araris regardless of alignment so I'll hope that's not a problem.

 

Can I ask your thoughts on killing in the opposite direction to JNV, to hedge the risk of getting this wrong?

Would suggest either Szeth or Stink (as a bus of Stick by Araris doesn’t clear STINK to the same degree as we’re doing).

@Araris Valerian, if JNV isn’t evil, who would you suggest the two remaining eliminators are?

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Cycle Seven - Guess Who's Back!

Illwei rubbed her eyes as she woke up and looked around.
She was all alone and there was no one else on the ground. 

Her folks had left her behind again, when she could've been easily found.
Oh well let's move, no time to mope, maybe they're over that mound?
Let's hurry it up, and catch them soon and my family I will surround

Or maybe this ends in a sad story, and they've fallen to the ocean and drowned!


JNV was eliminated! They were a Regular Reckoner Ally!
Thaidakar the Ghostblood was killed! He was the 
Reckoner Ally Epic - Bullseye!
STINK was killed! He was 
the Corrupted Epic - Shadowtrap!
Illwei is back! Please welcome her return to the game.

Vote Count:

JNV (6): Araris Valerian, Devotary of Spontaneity, STINK, Szeth_Pancakes, Thaidakar the Ghostblood, Orlok Tsubodai
Araris Valerian (1): JNV

Quote

You are Reckoner Ally Epic called Bullseye! Your aim is scarily accurate and as a result, you can kill 1 player per game which bypasses role-blocks and redirects.

Quote

You are the Corrupted Epic - Shadowtrap! You have the powers to blend with the shadows and follow a target. You learn whom they visit.

Cycle 7 has begun and will end on February 24, at 22:30 IST [GMT + 05:30]. Please try to bold your votes, and give retractions in green.

Player List:

Spoiler
  1. @Illwei
  2. Matrim's Dice - Orion Knighthawk Scientist
  3. Experience - Emfatic Reckoner Ally Epic D-Coy
  4. Kasimir - Mordred Kasjek Reckoner Ally Epic - Cobb
  5. StrikerEZ - Nathaniel Walker Reckoner Ally Epic Prestige
  6. @The Unknown Aon - Apocalypse
  7. @Araris Valerian - Spark O'toole
  8. Ashbringer Reckoner Ally Epic Santa Klaus
  9. Tani - Ricochet Reckoner Ally Epic Robbin' Hood
  10. Karnatheon - Pendulum
  11. @Devotary of Spontaneity - Sonia Biven
  12. Archer - Skmurph Corrupted Epic - Incinerator
  13. STINK Corrupted Epic - Shadowtrap
  14. _Stick_ Corrupted Epic - Annihilation
  15. @Szeth_Pancakes
  16. MintSilverTea - Zehpyr Regular Reckoner Ally
  17. JNV - Eiro Regular Reckoner Ally
  18. Amanuensis - Blink Regular Reckoner Ally
  19. Thaidakar the Ghostblood - Endrik Reckoner Ally Epic - Bullseye
  20. @Orlok Tsubodai - Locke
  21. Dannnex - Joe Reckoner Ally Epic Big Bully BroncoBuster
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1 minute ago, The Unknown Aon said:

E!Stink messes with some stuff. From what I was reading everyone thought he was village? And that role does not fit in with the other two. 

Does V!JNV = E!Araris? I couldn't really tell.

It very much does. I’m sure the dead were having a marvellous time laughing themselves yet further into the grave at my posts.

Beyond acknowledging my mistake, and committing to redoing the connections analysis, I just want to acknowledge both @Devotary of Spontaneity for her kill, and @Thaidakar the Ghostblood, as a consequence, for ensuring we didn’t kill Devo two cycles ago…

My gut instinct is that whilst v!JNV doesn’t entail e!Araris, e!Stink, and his vote on Stick, does support e!Araris.

@Illwei, welcome back! A fresh perspective on this is very much welcome.

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Stink being evil isn't a big surprise to anyone but this at least confirms that Devo isn't an actual Elim.

@The Unknown Aon What do you mean everyone thought he was village? I suppose maybe you've not been so active in thread but that seems to be such a strange view it's just strange

If Araris is an Elim then it means that the whole point of his role is to avoid Devo. More willing to think he's an Elim now that i understand his role simply because of my role.

It it worth looking at why Thaidikar was killed? It may have been 4 v 3 v 1 last cycle. it may be 3 v 2 v 1 this cycle, so could it be assumed that the Elims were just trying to kill whoever that was easy to kill to win the game? if left alive, then they might have been able to get a misexe on him despite my efforts to save.

Now no one get mad at me at what I'm about to say:

if there were three Elims left, then I think those three Elims could be solidly [Orlok, Araris, STINK], and that is a combination of Orloks's posting last cycle, and Araris' seeming complete lack of interactions with Orlok.

The only thing that doesn't make sense is the amount of effort Orlok seemingly put into his posts when the thread obviously didn't require for it. When he voted JNV there were already 3 votes on him to the one (self pres?) vote on Araris from JNV.

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Not sure how that could have been mistaken for only working on elims but he's village so okay. Stink has the same role that Orlok claimed, but we did have Kas and Karn with identical roles so we know we can have duplicates. Illwei coming back from the dead makes being the target of the elim kill less village indicative but wasting a kill on e!Illwei that could have been on a villager wouldn't be a great move. And Illwei was the first vote for Stick back on C1.

@Illwei people saw Stink as village for voting Stick C5 when it was

Araris (1): JNV
Szeth (1): Illwei
Stick (2): Araris, Orlok
Illwei (1): Stick
Devotary (1): Thaidakar

where Stink + Stick + elim 3 could have made sure someone else died unless I intervened with my vote + soothe. If the team was Araris/Orlok/Stink/Stick they could have voted on anyone they wanted to save Stick. I'm not really sure why Thaid died since there was a possibility of him being mixed. How does your role point to Araris being evil?

Edit: @Orlok Tsubodai how have your action scans been going? Who have you targeted in the past few cycles?

Edited by Devotary of Spontaneity
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