Mid-Range Game 56: Day of Reckoning

[Ashbringer he/him]

I know I've been mostly (Edit: N)AI. I'm busy. But at least I'm actually engaging, which is the point of me voting so early. Also not spending brainpower on RP rn.

All the info from Archer or Mat relies on someone dying. Unfortunately Mat dying doesn't help that so much. So let's see.

Spoiler

Ash votes Mat

Kas votes Mat

Araris votes Mat

Striker votes Mat

Striker unvotes Mat

Illwei votes Stick

Kas unvotes Mat

Aman votes Mat

Tani votes Stick

Mat votes Stick

Thaid votes Mat

Araris unvotes Mat

Kas votes Mat

Striker votes Stick

Devo votes Stick

Kas unvotes Mat

Araris votes Mat

Stick votes Mat

JNV votes Mat

Kas votes Mat

Aman unvotes Mat

 

 

Again.

Spoiler

Mat votes Thaid

Mat claims GM questions

Stick secondary asks questions known to be PAFOd - direct response to Mat

Mat might know Szeth E-tell to tell

Mat needs no shuffle squat rush

Stick forgets my vote on Mat (and Araris', but that was one minute earlier)

Mat claims only he and Kas can shuffle squat (another one forgetting me?)

Mat's lead D1 often, died D1 less

Stick gut-bad XP and Thaid

Mat gut-good Stick, Ash, null Thaid, Araris

Mat don't like Striker's vote, lack of playstyle changes

Mat don't think you can confirm no vanillas, curious about Illwei's opinions

Mat thinks V!Epics are a given (after Archer claim)

Stick questions why Archer-claim, no mass claiming

Mat votes Dannnex (no reason not to)

Mat claims bad at self-meta, doesn't think there's anything mandatory about a blackout.

Mat: "I could see Dannnex but it’s not something I’d immediately think of. Putting Stick there right now is something I disagree with, but a list like that isn’t something I’d make before C2 anyway :P. Assuming neither Stick or Dannnex die today. Having the whole cycle’s vote history is useful whereas right now anything goes."

Mat v-reads XP

Mat-Kas Wallpost 1 - direct disagree on Stick with Illwei, thinks Striker's village

Stick goes over Archer claim, doesn't come to a consensus

Stick votes XP (after voting Tani somewhere)

Stick thinks Mat is village but is paranoid

Mat still likes XP and Striker, disagree's with Aman's reasoning / hiding reasoning

(Aman info-dumps a Mat ISO)

Mat agrees with most of Aman's ISO, contests flipping on Striker, contests self-analysis's accuracy

Stick finds this all interesting

Mat contests to Illwei that he is village (Illwei's on Stick)

Mat says defensiveness (or at least not wanting to die) is NAI, questions Thaid

Mat-Aman Wallpost 1 - idk... it's long

Mat suggests players shouldn't just follow popular decision - which I agree with, but it's phrased odd

Stick clarifies they think V!Archer

Mat questions Thaid's suspicion

Mat-Kas Wallpost 2 - idk

Mat posts reads - V! Aman, Kas; Thaid, Ash, STINK, XP, Illwei, Striker - E! Stick, Araris 

Mat claims Scientist

okay that's enough I'm tired

more posts but yeah

 

I'm staying on Mat. For one thing, there's more info present, which means more holes, but Mat's also leaning a decent amount on past activity. That feels... strange. And I think he'll give more info than Stick.

But there's one other reason.

Mat's been a shuffle on and off the entire game. Nobody's unvoted Stick. At all. The whole cycle. Out of six people.

... if I tracked that right. But that's still... scaring me.

Okay I was supposed to sleep early today. Welp. I might not make it to rollover, but I'm okay with this. Weekend will hopefully mean I can do a true ISO / RP or something, but this is a good step.

Night. 

Tag me if you're panicking in the morning.

Edited February 12, 2022 by Ashbringer
I'm NAI, not AI... :P

[Stick. she/her]

 

Everyday we are faced with a choice:

Spoiler

 

This is the meme I was talking about yesterday lol I acquired the screenshot last night & finally got the chance to put it together

I'm about to go to a 4-hour class soon, and later today I will be out (possibly during rollover time) - I will try to log on every now and again whenever I can. But me getting exed is likely I think, even with the RNG, given my luck. I was actually really excited about my role because it's unlike anything I've had the chance to use before and I can't use it this cycle because that will definitely have bad, destructive outcomes.xD I guess if Mat is village (which I kinda doubt, at this stage), my role can still be used by someone else as an item, hopefully village. 

[Orlok Tsubodai he/him]

Apologies, all. The rate at which the thread has expanded has, frankly, been off-putting, given how I approach these games, but I’m now biting the bullet and starting to work through. I don’t like engaging with the present without having read and formed a view on previous pages, so am unlikely to vote this cycle - I doubt I’ll have caught up in time. That all being said, I’m committing myself to having caught up within the next 24 hours.

[Amanuensis he/him]

Okay, so despite changing my vote, I'm no less convinced of Mat's alignment.

I've been ruminating on Mat's responses to my observations + Kas all morning, and even after sleeping (soft resetting my brain), I'm still unable to stop myself from hyperfocusing on him. In fact, a lot of the aforementioned responses only served to reinforce my tunnel.

This is particularly annoying because I wanted to be more low effort in this game. Mostly because I didn't want to risk getting emotionally invested (which I fortunately haven't), and partly because I didn't want to be a driving force of discussion (which I unfortunately have). Whoever first said 'old habits die hard' was right, and it seems I can't turn off my instincts. I also probably love solving and helping exes grow too much.

So here I go. I'm going to try articulating why I find it difficult to village read Mat, even while acknowledging that he gets D1'd a lot for playstyle reasons and that said playstyle could be impacting my read. Any self-doubts I have are ultimately overshadowed by what I genuinely find suspicious, irrespective of playstyle.

 

Conclusion #1: Mat is an Epic, but not a Village one.

Spoiler

I won't bother repeating the problem I had with his "singular question" post compared to his Scientist roleclaim (like Kas said, multiple questions immediately popped into my mind, and when I saw JNV (a second timer?) do the same thing within the span of a ninja, it reaffirmed my initial take.

What I will draw attention to is this.

On 2/11/2022 at 7:31 AM, Matrim's Dice said:

I can tell you what I'll flip right now, but you probably wouldn't look twice at it. My role is one that makes little sense for the elims to have, and I don't really want to claim it but I will if that'll help.

For added context, the above post came several hours after this one:

On 2/10/2022 at 1:14 PM, Matrim's Dice said:

The elims specifically being Corrupted Epics, instead of just Epics, and the villagers being Reckoner Allies, instead of just Reckoners, does imply village Epics to me. 

Having acknowledged that Village Epics exist (because of both Corrupted Epics and Reckoner Allies), why does Mat think his role makes little sense for the elims to have? IMO this assumes way too much about the elim distro while neglecting the one Village Epic claim we have, which Mat seems to believe.

Let's assume, for a moment, that Mat is an elim and being (at least partially) honest about his role claim. For one, it makes sense that if the elims were to lose a more critical role early, this one would ensure their team can still get one use out of their ability post-death. It also makes sense if the elim distro is a semi-troll and none or one of them are Epics, and the majority lie with the Village; meaning the elims would get rewarded for successfully killing a village epic by gaining a one-use item to further their goals. It even makes sense if the truth is something more in-between.

Now let's assume Mat is village and thus being completely honest about his role. Why wouldn't Archer's claim prompt questions, doubts, or concerns? Why does he just use faction names to explain and nope out of the topic? I'm genuinely asking because much like the asking a singular question thing, I feel if I were in Village!Scientist!Mat's shoes, my initial reaction would be to pick Archer's claim apart for info. It's totally relevant to his own role and contradicts his stance on it being village-sided. Do other people feel the same way about this? Is this bias confirmation? I really don't know, but I find it much harder to believe than the alternative.

So here's what I think happened. I think Mat saved his questions for the elim doc after they collectively shared and discussed their roles. I think he was so quick to accept Archer is a Village Epic / that Village Epics exist because his role + elim distro already implied that. I think the reason he didn't try prying Archer for more information / avoided the topic altogether is because he didn't want to draw more attention to himself by getting involved. And I think he's been overly defensive and repeatedly stated willingness to self-preserve on any alternative because the elims losing his role this early could deal a large blow.

Meanwhile, outside his own participation and enjoyment of the game, I don't really see a Village!Scientist being so adamant about self-preserving. I certainly don't mind losing it, if Mat is village. The previous anon game proved that we can triumph from really good analysis, rather than depending on roles. And for someone who apparently really wants to live, I don't see Mat being that interested in his role. Not like Stick just did in the ninja I just got (I feel your pain, Stick. This is my third attempt at writing this post and I've now resorted to having multiple tabs of drafts open). Stick's exact response is more in line with what I'd expect from an Epic Villager.

 

Conclusion #2: I can no longer trust anything Mat says in this game.

Spoiler

Check out this progression.

On 2/10/2022 at 11:15 AM, Matrim's Dice said:

Kind of want to call this a Szeth elim tell but he's also had a streak going the past few games so it's more likely just a Szeth tell

On 2/10/2022 at 11:36 AM, Matrim's Dice said:

I meant more like option A, of these. I said he's on an elim streak off of remembering the AG and Tani's game, and those games alone, though they were the most recent two. Part of the reason I noticed it is because I initially voted Szeth in Tani's game for doing something very similar, but I also acknowledged that something he probably just does since my sample section was two games. I don't remember how Gorilla opened either, so. One game.

Not the strongest argument, but that's why it wasn't an argument or a vote, just a random thought I posted. I wasn't planning on acting on it.

On 2/11/2022 at 11:07 AM, Matrim's Dice said:

Szeth's first post in Tani's game is here. Looking back on the game has made me realize I misremembered how it went down- I didn't call Szeth out in Tani's game for this post, I called him out for his first post C2 (which is tonally similar but not the same post). So I think what happened is that when I saw Szeth open the exact same way this game, I remembered that he opened like that in his last game (elim game) but not if he opened that way in other games. So I wasn't sure if it was a Szeth tell or an elim Szeth tell, and I didn't pursue it further. When I was questioned about my reasoning I misremembered Tani's game, but hopefully this clears anything up.

23 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I saw Szeth's post, remembered he did that last elim game, and posted a sentence about it. That's it. I revisited it later when it became an issue but I didn't need to when I first thought of it. Like, the answer to your question is 'because I didn't' :P.

One part of my problem here is that Mat has set a precedent in this game for susing people without proper engagement (confirming whether or not his perceived tell was true, easily dismissing it and poke voting an extremely low-inactive Dannnex). Even ignoring that he got distracted by replying to wall posts later, I just don't see why Villager!Mat would write it off so quickly without pursuing anybody else. Furthermore, when scrutinized even a little, the foundation completely falls apart. It was based on incorrect memories in the first place, which leaves me wondering how much else of what he's said can be trusted. More thoughts on this in the Conclusion #3. 

But for now, this happens:

22 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Null-:

Szeth: Pretty darn close to just Null, and probably would be Null if Kas hadn't checked his games and found that, yes, that kind of opening has historically come from e!Szeth. Also not my immediate concern atm though.

Why is this not an immediate concern? This post was dropped 10 hours ago; plenty of time to start a new wagon, especially on a player you believe has an elim tell. I think it's a compelling enough argument that could easily get people on board. Even if it doesn't, what harm would bringing @Szeth_Pancakes into the exe conversation do? Again, I don't see a villager trying to solve the game. I see a player doing anything they can to survive.

Even Kas has pointed out that in a past game, V!Mat has let himself get exed (with a role) for information.
Also that E!Mat has roleclaimed in a response to becoming an exe candidate.

Words are just wind. Actions are matter. And no matter how much I try to see this game from Village!Mat's perspective, I don't feel the actions line up at all. They do line up with an elim with a role though. An elim with TMI that Szeth will flip Village, which he'd know when dismissing the supposed tell, and would now look really bad on him if Szeth was exed today over Stick, which conveniently was initiated by other players that, if in the event of a Village flip, would make the initiators look worse, rather than just him.

 

Conclusion #3: Mat has been using his own meta awareness to dictate his elim playstyle this game.

Spoiler

I find myself repeatedly drawn to this specific post, which was the biggest thing that raised the hairs on the back of my neck.

On 2/10/2022 at 4:37 PM, Matrim's Dice said:

Ah come on, surely you know that e!me doesn’t think things like that through and also doesn’t care too much about wordings like that

Tbh I think v!me would be more likely to reword something because it looks elimmy than e!me but that’s a weird piece of self meta from someone who’s bad at self meta, take that with a grain of salt if you take it at all xD

Ignoring the "surely" versus "I think" language, what Mat is saying about his Village meta is that he's more careful about looking elimmy when Village. If that's true, why wasn't he more careful about pointing out an unconfirmed Szeth-elim tell? Why did he drop the thought and dismiss it in one breath without confirming it one way or another?

Here's what I think, based on his other comments about his meta.

On 2/10/2022 at 6:22 PM, Matrim's Dice said:

I think it’s the kind of posts he’s making- A lot of the time, when I’m elim, I avoid posting completely random takes and do less fluff. There is gut involved, but I think e!Exp might be more reserved.

Mat is aware of what he does as a Villager. I think the cognitive dissonance I've experienced when comparing what he says to what he does is a result of forcing himself to act like he would as a Villager, rather than actually being one. This is why his early game matches his meta in letter, but not in spirit. Look at this, for another example.

On 2/10/2022 at 0:03 PM, Matrim's Dice said:

Or a tool to gauge a new player's reaction to being voted on. That too. (Which, if they didn't understand what a vote was, didn't really work anyway)

On 2/10/2022 at 8:19 PM, Matrim's Dice said:

It's one of my favorite ways to use D1 votes, new players or otherwise. 

Mat's votes today:

1. Page one soft-ball poke vote on Thaidakar, a new player.
2. Random vote on Dannnex for "no reason."
3. Self-preservation on the other exe candidate, Stick.

It's also worth nothing Mat's progression on Stick:

On 2/10/2022 at 0:20 PM, Matrim's Dice said:

Quick Gut Takes:

Vil- Stick, TJ, Ash

Null (as opposed to no opinion)- Thaidakar, Araris (+)

Don't have anyone that feels elimmy right now. Kas and Exp both feel normal to me but I don't think that's necessarily the same thing as village. (Well, in Kas' case, maybe it does :P)

On 2/10/2022 at 6:07 PM, Matrim's Dice said:

I could see Dannnex but it’s not something I’d immediately think of. Putting Stick there right now is something I disagree with, but a list like that isn’t something I’d make before C2 anyway :P. Assuming neither Stick or Dannnex die today. Having the whole cycle’s vote history is useful whereas right now anything goes.

On 2/10/2022 at 8:19 PM, Matrim's Dice said:

That list doesn't really look the same anymore, but I had/still have Stick there for... basically the opposite read that Illwei gave. I liked how Stick was interacting with the thread and how specific they were in some of the small questions they had. Adding to the saga of me disagreeing with Illwei, woo

On 2/11/2022 at 8:50 AM, Matrim's Dice said:

I see that VC, and- I know this looks weird considering the reads I've posted, I know- go Stick (Dannnex) as the candidate I like best. That isn't to say I read Stick as elim. I don't read Stick as strictly elim. I don't know what I read Stick, after considering Illwei's take on them, which makes a lot of sense to me. But I read Exp and Illwei as village (Exp for previously stated reasons, and Illwei because of her solving style- reads legitimate to me in its progression. And because we're mindmelding on some things.) And I actively dislike the reasons people are voting Archer. It reminds me of when people would vote Gears for claiming elim.

22 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Slight Elim:

Stick: I can see Illwei's interpretation of her slot being true, but foremost to me is the way she's treated my slot. I've had enough attention that I just don't think it's likely that none of it has been from elims. In my opinion, the elims interacting with the suspicion on me are more likely to be found in the peripherals, the ones that were more non-commital and on the side. Stick fits that perfectly.

Araris: In the same vein, Araris initially joined my train but has since found a side option on Experience. I could definitely see this as a preparation for my green flip. Also somewhat agree with Kas' gut but I can't decide if that's some weird form of conf-bais >>

Mat pivots from "liking how Stick was interacting with the thread" / "Adding to the saga of me disagreeing with Illwei" to "I don't know what I read Stick, after considering Illwei's take on them" to "I can see Illwei's interpretation being true" / "the elims interacting with the suspicion on me are more likely to be found in the peripherals, the ones that were more non-commital and on the side. Stick fits that perfectly," all on his own, without prompting beyond his potential death.

It's one thing to vote Stick because you want to live. It's another thing to say you're doing that, then come up with reasons to put them in a reads list as Slight Elim.

This on top of the fact Stick ninja'd me with a post that I'm reading as village is just too convenient for my liking. Araris being his only other Slight Elim read + Szeth being his only Null- read + having 8 Village / Slight Village reads = a very skeptical Amanuensis.

 

Bonus Evidence:

Spoiler

On 2/11/2022 at 0:00 PM, Matrim's Dice said:

From what I remember, I don't turn to pocketing first unless there's PMs, and I usually like to try newer players. You I'd PM because you'd probably find it weird if I didn't, and sure pocketing you would be very helpful but I'd probably hesitate to actively try to do it because I'd be nervous that you'd catch on.

On 2/10/2022 at 10:46 AM, Matrim's Dice said:

Thaidakar. Hi!

Don’t worry, I don’t actually want to kill you. Have you read the rules/etiquette page?

On 2/10/2022 at 3:55 PM, Matrim's Dice said:

RP is optional and whenever. It’s in the writeups, and if you die your character will be used in those, but you can introduce your character now, next cycle, or never  I’d guess you’ll go for the ‘now’ option, though  

On 2/10/2022 at 6:43 PM, Matrim's Dice said:

I just thought they didn’t really read the rules :P. I agree that you should probably know what an elim is after reading the main SE introduction page, but that leans into the territory of assuming how someone else understands/learns which is not something I want to do. (I’m not accusing you of doing this, either- your point was different from mine.) So I kind of just put it on the backburner and didn’t mention it.

 

Final Thought:

Matrim.

I hope this will be the last big post I make this game (Sorry Orlok).

 

ED1T:

Matrim.

Actually better to reserve my vote for now. (6) Mat to (5) Stick invites more opportunity for any would-be saviors to get involved.

 

ED2T:

Oh, and I might as well address the Dannnex thing since I've seen it brought up a couple times but was too focused on Mat to reply.

Spoiler

 

On 2/10/2022 at 10:45 AM, Dannnex said:

Hi guys i'm here

blackouts are fun.

uhhh.

....

....

TJ.    for legal reasons, this is a joke.

On 2/10/2022 at 11:15 AM, Dannnex said:

erm

that was mat lol

not me

On 2/10/2022 at 4:25 PM, Dannnex said:

bad guy

red team

guys we want to vote out

 

 

 

These are his only posts. I initially found his opening ("blackouts are fun") as an indication that he's got some role (not a Regular) or is more aware of the game's distro (elim). At the time of me mentioning it, I wasn't against exeing a role intentionally (yay GM confirmed information), so for a D1 vote, it felt like a win-win.

Lately, though, I dunno how I feel. I haven't noticed him viewing the game so I don't know if he's lurking or simply not engaged in the game. He was online 5 hours ago though, which makes me wonder: if blackouts are so fun, why isn't he participating?

@Dannnex

Oh! And I had a tinfoil theory for a while that Thaidakar, Dannnex, and Matrim were E/E/V or E/E/E based on the early game name mixup. 

Edited February 12, 2022 by Amanuensis

[JNV]

Hi! I have literally 2 minutes before I go dark for twelve hours but I just want to point out that Matrims statement about only one question could mean that they asked only one question and it didn't get PAFOd or that they asked a lot of questions and all but one got PAFOd. Bye for a while!

[Stick. she/her]

44 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Actually better to reserve my vote for now. (6) Mat to (5) Stick invites more opportunity for any would-be saviors to get involved.

Not a bad idea. Although given how the rollover time for this game is inconvenient for the majority of the players, I think it’s likely that the elims have already made their moves. Let’s see though  

re: Dannex - I don’t think they’re e/e with Thaid, though if they are I’ll be super surprised/impressed with Thaid’s play  Dannex could possibly be e/e with mat, but other than that slight indirect interaction you brought up, there’s not much to go off from

probably my last post 

[Amanuensis he/him]

9 hours ago, JNV said:

Hi! I have literally 2 minutes before I go dark for twelve hours but I just want to point out that Matrims statement about only one question could mean that they asked only one question and it didn't get PAFOd or that they asked a lot of questions and all but one got PAFOd. Bye for a while!

Can it?

The conversation:

On 2/10/2022 at 10:59 AM, Archer said:

Speaking of ominous feelings, did anyone else get a weirdly specific role that TJ is PAFOing all questions about?

On 2/10/2022 at 11:05 AM, _Stick_ said:

so you have a role eh?

*takes note*

I too have been bombarding TJ with questions, and PAFOs are definitely in there.

On 2/10/2022 at 11:08 AM, Matrim's Dice said:

So I'm the only one who asked a singular question that didn't get PAFO'd? Clearly I'm doing it wrong.

Archer: PAFOing all questions about
Stick: I too have been bombarding TJ with questions.
Matrim: So I'm the only one who asked a singular question that didn't get PAFO'd?

ED1T:

I guess that interpretation works if Mat read "PAFOs are definitely in there" as "PAFOing all questions," but I think it's fairly clear that's not what Stick said, and Mat's implication of doing it wrong means getting an answer = wrong.

I'm also more inclined to believe elims would get PAFO'd less, though it's not a factor in how I'm reading this exchange.

ED2T:

ONE MORE THING I SWEAR.

This was something I only realized until today and I think is worth pointing out.

This game has combined Day/Night turns. Elim kill / actions will need to have been decided on today on top of dealing with the kayana thread activity.

My original thought it was a factor in Mat's early defensiveness, which could be true.

But I also wonder how much time the elims have been spending in doc strategizing versus in the thread disscussing.

Edited February 12, 2022 by Amanuensis

[Archer he/him]

See? Now we know this is an items game! :D.

The reason my vote was on Illwei was because I didn't like how aggressively they were pushing the Stick exe. The easy explanation was that it helped e!Mat, but e!Illwei wouldn't be questioning it so hard right now unless they are distancing from a v-v trainwreck. This is my mental note to go back and check if that wagon helped anyone else avoid votes.

4 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

I know I've been mostly (Edit: N)AI. I'm busy. But at least I'm actually engaging, which is the point of me voting so early. Also not spending brainpower on RP rn.

All the info from Archer or Mat relies on someone dying. Unfortunately Mat dying doesn't help that so much. So let's see.

  Reveal hidden contents

Ash votes Mat

Kas votes Mat

Araris votes Mat

Striker votes Mat

Striker unvotes Mat

Illwei votes Stick

Kas unvotes Mat

Aman votes Mat

Tani votes Stick

Mat votes Stick

Thaid votes Mat

Araris unvotes Mat

Kas votes Mat

Striker votes Stick

Devo votes Stick

Kas unvotes Mat

Araris votes Mat

Stick votes Mat

JNV votes Mat

Kas votes Mat

Aman unvotes Mat

 

 

Again.

  Reveal hidden contents

Mat votes Thaid

Mat claims GM questions

Stick secondary asks questions known to be PAFOd - direct response to Mat

Mat might know Szeth E-tell to tell

Mat needs no shuffle squat rush

Stick forgets my vote on Mat (and Araris', but that was one minute earlier)

Mat claims only he and Kas can shuffle squat (another one forgetting me?)

Mat's lead D1 often, died D1 less

Stick gut-bad XP and Thaid

Mat gut-good Stick, Ash, null Thaid, Araris

Mat don't like Striker's vote, lack of playstyle changes

Mat don't think you can confirm no vanillas, curious about Illwei's opinions

Mat thinks V!Epics are a given (after Archer claim)

Stick questions why Archer-claim, no mass claiming

Mat votes Dannnex (no reason not to)

Mat claims bad at self-meta, doesn't think there's anything mandatory about a blackout.

Mat: "I could see Dannnex but it’s not something I’d immediately think of. Putting Stick there right now is something I disagree with, but a list like that isn’t something I’d make before C2 anyway :P. Assuming neither Stick or Dannnex die today. Having the whole cycle’s vote history is useful whereas right now anything goes."

Mat v-reads XP

Mat-Kas Wallpost 1 - direct disagree on Stick with Illwei, thinks Striker's village

Stick goes over Archer claim, doesn't come to a consensus

Stick votes XP (after voting Tani somewhere)

Stick thinks Mat is village but is paranoid

Mat still likes XP and Striker, disagree's with Aman's reasoning / hiding reasoning

(Aman info-dumps a Mat ISO)

Mat agrees with most of Aman's ISO, contests flipping on Striker, contests self-analysis's accuracy

Stick finds this all interesting

Mat contests to Illwei that he is village (Illwei's on Stick)

Mat says defensiveness (or at least not wanting to die) is NAI, questions Thaid

Mat-Aman Wallpost 1 - idk... it's long

Mat suggests players shouldn't just follow popular decision - which I agree with, but it's phrased odd

Stick clarifies they think V!Archer

Mat questions Thaid's suspicion

Mat-Kas Wallpost 2 - idk

Mat posts reads - V! Aman, Kas; Thaid, Ash, STINK, XP, Illwei, Striker - E! Stick, Araris 

Mat claims Scientist

okay that's enough I'm tired

more posts but yeah

 

I'm staying on Mat. For one thing, there's more info present, which means more holes, but Mat's also leaning a decent amount on past activity. That feels... strange. And I think he'll give more info than Stick.

But there's one other reason.

Mat's been a shuffle on and off the entire game. Nobody's unvoted Stick. At all. The whole cycle. Out of six people.

... if I tracked that right. But that's still... scaring me.

Okay I was supposed to sleep early today. Welp. I might not make it to rollover, but I'm okay with this. Weekend will hopefully mean I can do a true ISO / RP or something, but this is a good step.

Night. 

Tag me if you're panicking in the morning.

I dislike the argument that we should decide our kill based on the information it might provide. That only really works if we kill an elim, in which case, there's better reasons to kill elims. :P. Ashbringer doing vote analysis pre flip to try and direct traffic pings me as being all sorts of odd.

But the conclusion that the Stick train seems less organic is a good point. 

11 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

What has Stick said? I will flag her seeming to have a role (asking questions, although it also seems she was asking questions that she knew wouldn't get answered, e.g. are there neutrals so is potentially roleless) + instinctively assuming all elims are Epics. That's not really provable unless Stick dies though. She believes Archer's claim makes him likely village which does make sense but will be reexamined if he's evil. Much less concerned about the prospect of being exed than Mat is. Let's see if that applies when she's in the lead. Ashbringer, _Stick_.

_Stick_ (5): Illwei, Matrim's Dice, Tani, Striker, Devotary
Matrim (4): Ashbringer, Amanuensis, Thaidakar the Ghostblood, Kasimir
Experience (2): _Stick_, Araris
Illwei (1): Archer
Ash (1): Experience
Archer (1): Karnatheon

I kind of want Mat to claim but that probably not a good idea since it would make v!Mat a target but likely couldn't clear him and E!Mat could just make something up or even be truthful.

@Experience, what about looking at Ash's posts made you vote for him?

This post reads like how elims justify their votes. Is that vote a wristwatch, because it looks like a role-exe.

Actually I'm more pinged by the core reason that they want to see how they handle being in the lead, because the vote has stuck. And PM Saftey!Devo expresses an uncharacteristic desire for a claim, but then talks themselves out of it, which could be them making an argument on behalf of teammate!Mat. 

Mat

I see that I've been @ ed, but I'm probably not going to get to those for a while.

[Amanuensis he/him]

• Matrim's Dice (7): Araris Valerian, Ashbringer, Thaidakar the Ghostblood, _Stick_, JNV, Kasimir, Archer
• _Stick_ (5): Illwei, Matrim's Dice, StrikerEZ, Tani, Devotary of Spontaneity, 
• Archer (1): Karnatheon

12/21 exe participation is pretty good for a D1, though it's not perfect. @Karnatheon, could I interest you in joining the fun?

That leaves @Experience, @The Unknown Aon, @STINK, @Szeth_Pancakes, @MintSilverTea, @Dannnex, and Orlok as non-vote participants.

Quote

D1 Reads List                    Legend: Leaning Elim, Null, Leaning Village

• Matrim's Dice (7): Araris Valerian, Ashbringer, Thaidakar the Ghostblood, _Stick_, JNV, Kasimir, Archer
• _Stick_ (5): Illwei, Matrim's Dice, StrikerEZ, Tani, Devotary of Spontaneity, 
• Archer (1): Karnatheon

 

• Experience, The Unknown Aon, STINK, Szeth_Pancakes, MintSilverTea, Dannnex, Orlok Tsubodai

Overall, I'm happier about the voters on Mat than the ones on Stick.

Edited February 12, 2022 by Amanuensis

[STINK he/him]

Fairly certain this is all the @'s I got while I slept for apparently like 14 hours last night, not gonna read into why I slept for so long no thank you

11 hours ago, Kasimir said:

I was also commenting part of this comes from intra-disciplinary awareness since argumentation and rationality is the bread-and-butter of philosophy as a discipline: that there are many ways to bleed an argument, especially at the joints. If you want to 'win', you bleed the argument out, along with some other cheap tricks you learn if you want to get published. It's common in some point-scoring fights among the younger grad student crowd (in my very disparaging opinion) and sometimes I do have mixed feelings when I see the same tactics at play in SE, even if not applied consciously. There's a reason that a lot of fresh undergrads who get introduced to Plato intuitively feel that Sokrates isn't 'fighting fair.'  (Feel free to join in, @STINK and @Orlok Tsubodai, though maybe we shouldn't turn the thread into philosopher central. TOO LATE NOW MUAHAHAHAHA.) There's a whole meta-philosophical debate about how to engage productively, in a way that makes the discipline more constructive, and better able to seek truth, and one of the insights I liked involved taking care not to engage for the purposes of engagement or deconstruction but to advance the debate as a whole, to make some sort of advancement beyond the argument grinding.

@STINK, based off your ISO, why aren't you voting Mat?

TLDR on Sokratic stuff for everyone, Sokrates is like the OG tunneler who will ignore everything you've said or done all in the pursuit of that almighty topic. So yeah, similar to how in this thread (and I guess many threads for D1) the first like two notable things that happen get focused on and it's all in the pursuit of solving whatever that may be and everything else in the day kinda seems to fall off to the side? Like why are the two current candidates to die (we stopped using lynch as a term right?) both people that were just active near the start? 

My ISO's main conclusion to me was that they felt neutral more than elim since I can't personally tell if they're doing elim or village tells and all the meta talk about playstyles is just annoying and not very fruitful within the course of this game. With the addition of their role being a Scientist (gotta get the capitalisation right), I don't think that role is alignment indicative really with the bonuses it would offer to any group of players. 

8 hours ago, JNV said:

STINK. Anti-meta chatter I think? Honestly not much there beyond standard disagreement. (You can see me talking less as this goes on. I'm falling asleep I think)

Just now, Amanuensis said:

• Matrim's Dice (7): Araris Valerian, Ashbringer, Thaidakar the Ghostblood, _Stick_, JNV, Kasimir, Archer
• _Stick_ (5): Illwei, Matrim's Dice, StrikerEZ, Tani, Devotary of Spontaneity, 
• Archer (1): Karnatheon

12/21 exe participation is pretty good for a D1, though it's not perfect. @Karnatheon, could I interest you in joining the fun?

That leaves @Experience, @The Unknown Aon, @STINK, @Szeth_Pancakes, @MintSilverTea, @Dannnex, and Orlok as non-vote participants.

 

Whole vote gives me bad vibes, but maybe I'll reconsider closer to the end of the cycle idk I gotta go eat lunch/breakfast now ciao ciao for now

[Amanuensis he/him]

9 hours ago, STINK said:

Whole vote gives me bad vibes, but maybe I'll reconsider closer to the end of the cycle idk I gotta go eat lunch/breakfast now ciao ciao for now

That's a fair take. I'm curious if, after you eat and wake up more, you could articulate why the vote gives you bad vibes. Also if anyone else stands out to you as elim in particular. I personally would be very surprised if there weren't a couple among the Twelve participants, for instance.

[Karnatheon he/him]

Ok I just got caught up, just barely by skimming. Not gonna be active but might be able to keep up around rollover if it isn't actually insane

Archer

Mat

[Amanuensis he/him]

9 hours ago, Karnatheon said:

Ok I just got caught up, just barely by skimming. Not gonna be active but might be able to keep up around rollover if it isn't actually insane

Archer

Mat

Spoiler

ED1T:

Despite memeing, not wholly proud of my part in this >> 

Edited February 12, 2022 by Amanuensis

[StrikerEZ he/him]

@Kasimir The post where I said a concert was starting was no joke. I spent the 25 minutes before the concert was gonna start speed reading my way through about 4 pages and wanted to get a post in. I was typing my post voting on Stick as the performers were tuning. You are right that I normally like to add reasons to my votes, but I’ve had so little time outside of doing things these last couple days that the most I’ve been able to manage is votes themselves. As for my reasoning on Stick, it’s mostly not really liking the overall tone of their posts as well as not liking the weird mind meld thing they talked about. And I think that people are reading way too much into the singular question thing.

[Amanuensis he/him]

Hm. Back to Stick.

 

[Thaidakar the Ghostblood he/him]

HMM. I was gone for what twelve hours? now three more pages. hm. so the vote seems to be settled on stick and mat now? still sticking on mat though. mat is just sus. 

Though I think Archer is still a bit suspicious to me for reasons which I choose not to share until I find more reasons. hmm. what is a null/null+? like wha? I thought I was beginning to understand this.

[Amanuensis he/him]

9 hours ago, Thaidakar the Ghostblood said:

HMM. I was gone for what twelve hours? now three more pages. hm. so the vote seems to be settled on stick and mat now? still sticking on mat though. mat is just sus. 

Though I think Archer is still a bit suspicious to me for reasons which I choose not to share until I find more reasons. hmm. what is a null/null+? like wha? I thought I was beginning to understand this.

Null+ means a player hasn't done enough to earn a Village read, but has done something that leans towards Villager. Null- is the opposite of that.

Basically, it's a way of further classifying reads so they're more accurate.

9 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

@Kasimir The post where I said a concert was starting was no joke. I spent the 25 minutes before the concert was gonna start speed reading my way through about 4 pages and wanted to get a post in. I was typing my post voting on Stick as the performers were tuning. You are right that I normally like to add reasons to my votes, but I’ve had so little time outside of doing things these last couple days that the most I’ve been able to manage is votes themselves. As for my reasoning on Stick, it’s mostly not really liking the overall tone of their posts as well as not liking the weird mind meld thing they talked about. And I think that people are reading way too much into the singular question thing.

Okay, that's fair. What about this part though?

Spoiler

11 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

I won't bother repeating the problem I had with his "singular question" post compared to his Scientist roleclaim (like Kas said, multiple questions immediately popped into my mind, and when I saw JNV (a second timer?) do the same thing within the span of a ninja, it reaffirmed my initial take.

What I will draw attention to is this.

On 2/11/2022 at 7:31 AM, Matrim's Dice said:

I can tell you what I'll flip right now, but you probably wouldn't look twice at it. My role is one that makes little sense for the elims to have, and I don't really want to claim it but I will if that'll help.

For added context, the above post came several hours after this one:

On 2/10/2022 at 1:14 PM, Matrim's Dice said:

The elims specifically being Corrupted Epics, instead of just Epics, and the villagers being Reckoner Allies, instead of just Reckoners, does imply village Epics to me. 

Having acknowledged that Village Epics exist (because of both Corrupted Epics and Reckoner Allies), why does Mat think his role makes little sense for the elims to have? IMO this assumes way too much about the elim distro while neglecting the one Village Epic claim we have, which Mat seems to believe.

Let's assume, for a moment, that Mat is an elim and being (at least partially) honest about his role claim. For one, it makes sense that if the elims were to lose a more critical role early, this one would ensure their team can still get one use out of their ability post-death. It also makes sense if the elim distro is a semi-troll and none or one of them are Epics, and the majority lie with the Village; meaning the elims would get rewarded for successfully killing a village epic by gaining a one-use item to further their goals. It even makes sense if the truth is something more in-between.

Now let's assume Mat is village and thus being completely honest about his role. Why wouldn't Archer's claim prompt questions, doubts, or concerns? Why does he just use faction names to explain and nope out of the topic? I'm genuinely asking because much like the asking a singular question thing, I feel if I were in Village!Scientist!Mat's shoes, my initial reaction would be to pick Archer's claim apart for info. It's totally relevant to his own role and contradicts his stance on it being village-sided. Do other people feel the same way about this? Is this bias confirmation? I really don't know, but I find it much harder to believe than the alternative.

So here's what I think happened. I think Mat saved his questions for the elim doc after they collectively shared and discussed their roles. I think he was so quick to accept Archer is a Village Epic / that Village Epics exist because his role + elim distro already implied that. I think the reason he didn't try prying Archer for more information / avoided the topic altogether is because he didn't want to draw more attention to himself by getting involved. And I think he's been overly defensive and repeatedly stated willingness to self-preserve on any alternative because the elims losing his role this early could deal a large blow.

Meanwhile, outside his own participation and enjoyment of the game, I don't really see a Village!Scientist being so adamant about self-preserving. I certainly don't mind losing it, if Mat is village. The previous anon game proved that we can triumph from really good analysis, rather than depending on roles. And for someone who apparently really wants to live, I don't see Mat being that interested in his role. Not like Stick just did in the ninja I just got (I feel your pain, Stick. This is my third attempt at writing this post and I've now resorted to having multiple tabs of drafts open). Stick's exact response is more in line with what I'd expect from an Epic Villager.

Edited February 12, 2022 by Amanuensis

[Thaidakar the Ghostblood he/him]

Thankyou for the explanation Aman. 

[|TJ| he/him]

One hour to go!

VC:

Matrim's Dice (8): Kasimir, Araris Valerian, Ashbringer, Karnatheon, Archer, _Stick_, JNV, Thaidakar the Ghostblood
_Stick_ (6): Illwei, Matrim's Dice, StrikerEZ, Tani, Devotary of Spontaneity, Amanuensis

[Mat he/him]

Still chill btw I actually think it's fun responding to everyone

---

Everyone: You should claim! We'll consider it!

Also everyone: No no you're still elim

Like

No one has even considered that the role makes more sense as a village role. Everyone collectively added it to the pile of evidence without a second thought. Why'd you want me to claim, if you were just going to do that.

The issue people are having with the 'one question' is absolutely absurd. It's the smallest thing. There's no reason I would lie about that.

This is a provable role. I would absolutely not make a role provable if I were making it up.

9 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

Mat for obvious reasons of self pres, though I am also open to switching to Striker because his votes have been oddly self-conflicting. In fact Mat’s vote on me despite reading me village apparently also does not make much sense - I let it marinate overnight because the level of desperation seemed to indicate either v!mat with a highly powerful role that would be really useful for us to have, or e!mat. But given this role claim I’m kind of left with the latter now. 3/5 people haven’t given reasons for them voting me and out of the 2/5, devo is exeing me for having a role (? :P). Just feel like it’s painfully obvious something’s off about this train  

I thought I made it perfectly clear in the post I voted you that I didn't read you village. I'm just repeating myself at this point, but all of the other trains that were going at that point I disagreed with, except for yours I was indifferent to. Since then I've adopted partially Illwei's reasoning and partially gone off of how you've treated my slot, which I think was elimmy.

9 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

Hmm. @Matrim's Dice, is that an active or a passive ability? I.e. do you just get an item when any Epic dies, or do you have to sample a dying player or a dead player? 

I have to make it within the cycle after they die, so an active ability. I then have to pass it within a cycle after that.

9 hours ago, JNV said:

Matrim. Talks a lot for things that don't really need to be talked about so much but also lampshades this later? Or is it really lampshading if its justification? I also can't find Experience's "single somewhat strange" read so I'm a bit confused. But they're not really doing anything? They're just talking around in circles that all come down to the indescribable nature of the mind and there's not really new things going on and a lot of the arguments deal with things I wasn't here for so... But also I like that they're at least trying to talk things through. And I get that its the first cycle so I don't really want them to die because it feels like they'll talk about more when theres more to talk about. 

A ton of people posted while I was working on this. Nothing too important except that role claim. Matrim's role implies the existence of items in general and also the ability of Epic roles to be condensed into a neat little item? Or does it mean that you get a random item of a set that is easily itemable from any Epic? If anyone is willing to confirm the existence of items, that could make Matrim's role more plausible. Then again, this might be the only item source. 

@Matrim's Dice can your role be used more than once per dead Epic? If another Scientist also targeted the same dead Epic, would you both get an item? Is there a time limit on dead Epic conversion to item form or can it be used on any corpse no matter how long its been?

And it is a lot later than I planned for and I've been working on this for four hours and I have homework and I have to wake up early tomorrow so I'll see you on the other side of the cycle and hope it all ends well! Good night!

'Don't really need to be talked about'- if you're referring to my resilience in defending myself- imo that definitely needed to be talked about. #1 job as a villager is to kill elims and killing me is the #1 thing I know is a bad idea.

It amazes me how often I've had the most posts in a game and been accused of not doing anything :P. Not that you're wrong, though. But I think I adequately explained why I did this. I absolutely will talk about other things but I've been on the chopping block so much that I've literally only had time to respond to the isos and multiquotes that were questioning me. Except for when I made that massive reads list, did you see that I made that? I think everyone is ignoring that I made that because it's easier to vote me if they do.

I mean, I don't know if there are items outside of my role, but it does make sense. I don't really see how more item roles make my claim more plausible. I'm pretty sure that the item created replicates the Epic's role, but is single-use.

8 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Basically, I'm wondering if this claim matches up with his game intro.

Like, look at this.

JNV came up with a handful of questions regarding Mat's role, while Mat only mustered one. Considering this is a blackout game and that role is not exactly traditional, I find this surprising.

Again. Are you seriously pushing this as evidence.

The single question I asked was whether or not I could use the items. I found TJ's explanation of the role adequate and didn't have any questions beyond that. There's no reason for me to lie about any of this as either alignment. If you use this as serious evidence... I'm sorry I just don't know what to do :P.

7 hours ago, Kasimir said:

I still do think you tend to shade more defensive when Evil, and I still do think you've had Village games where you got attacked and were more chill about it. If I set aside how our current exchange and the emotional white noise in my head makes me feel, then I come back to that.

Thaid. Still feel I was overly-hasty in giving you credit for the Thaid exchange at the very start - bracketing any knowledge of Thaid's alignment, if Thaid is aware you don't want to kill them, then the stab vote loses all pressure and becomes really performative. But I also feel :| about the exchange with Thaid, later on in the cycle. I'm - confused about you feeling triggered by Thaid going onto you because everyone else did. It's an understandable frustration, but it shades close - in contrast with your views on my takes and Aman's - to an Elim going, "I shouldn't be caught out this way." Maybe that's where the whole ML reasons talk brings me back to.

I find Aman's role issue mention persuasive as something that's - odd, I suppose - because I'd forgotten you stated having that singular question, and the moment I saw your role, I too had multiple questions on how this is supposed to work. 

I think I'm generally more defensive when evil as well, and I have had village games where I was more chill. Neither of those things mean that I'm elim this game. How I react is how I react, and this is the first time I can ever remember having to respond repeatedly to two mega multi-quote players. Again that's not a bad thing, just different.

The Thaid reason... have you even mentioned that before? Like, at all? Lol. I actually regret posting the 'triggered' post, that was one where I had just finished responding to a multiquote, and so my mind was already sort of high-gear, and then Thaid just posts 'oh yeah just vote mat cause he sus' and I reacted poorly. Sorry about that, really am.

Again this is just so smh to me like- I never ask a lot of questions in GM PMs. Ask anyone who's GMd me. I ask questions when I think of them, which is throughout the game, and upon reading my role I had one (1) question. So what.

9 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Okay, so despite changing my vote, I'm no less convinced of Mat's alignment.

I've been ruminating on Mat's responses to my observations + Kas all morning, and even after sleeping (soft resetting my brain), I'm still unable to stop myself from hyperfocusing on him. In fact, a lot of the aforementioned responses only served to reinforce my tunnel.

This is particularly annoying because I wanted to be more low effort in this game. Mostly because I didn't want to risk getting emotionally invested (which I fortunately haven't), and partly because I didn't want to be a driving force of discussion (which I unfortunately have). Whoever first said 'old habits die hard' was right, and it seems I can't turn off my instincts. I also probably love solving and helping exes grow too much.

So here I go. I'm going to try articulating why I find it difficult to village read Mat, even while acknowledging that he gets D1'd a lot for playstyle reasons and that said playstyle could be impacting my read. Any self-doubts I have are ultimately overshadowed by what I genuinely find suspicious, irrespective of playstyle.

 

Conclusion #1: Mat is an Epic, but not a Village one.

  Reveal hidden contents

I won't bother repeating the problem I had with his "singular question" post compared to his Scientist roleclaim (like Kas said, multiple questions immediately popped into my mind, and when I saw JNV (a second timer?) do the same thing within the span of a ninja, it reaffirmed my initial take.

What I will draw attention to is this.

For added context, the above post came several hours after this one:

Having acknowledged that Village Epics exist (because of both Corrupted Epics and Reckoner Allies), why does Mat think his role makes little sense for the elims to have? IMO this assumes way too much about the elim distro while neglecting the one Village Epic claim we have, which Mat seems to believe.

Let's assume, for a moment, that Mat is an elim and being (at least partially) honest about his role claim. For one, it makes sense that if the elims were to lose a more critical role early, this one would ensure their team can still get one use out of their ability post-death. It also makes sense if the elim distro is a semi-troll and none or one of them are Epics, and the majority lie with the Village; meaning the elims would get rewarded for successfully killing a village epic by gaining a one-use item to further their goals. It even makes sense if the truth is something more in-between.

Now let's assume Mat is village and thus being completely honest about his role. Why wouldn't Archer's claim prompt questions, doubts, or concerns? Why does he just use faction names to explain and nope out of the topic? I'm genuinely asking because much like the asking a singular question thing, I feel if I were in Village!Scientist!Mat's shoes, my initial reaction would be to pick Archer's claim apart for info. It's totally relevant to his own role and contradicts his stance on it being village-sided. Do other people feel the same way about this? Is this bias confirmation? I really don't know, but I find it much harder to believe than the alternative.

So here's what I think happened. I think Mat saved his questions for the elim doc after they collectively shared and discussed their roles. I think he was so quick to accept Archer is a Village Epic / that Village Epics exist because his role + elim distro already implied that. I think the reason he didn't try prying Archer for more information / avoided the topic altogether is because he didn't want to draw more attention to himself by getting involved. And I think he's been overly defensive and repeatedly stated willingness to self-preserve on any alternative because the elims losing his role this early could deal a large blow.

Meanwhile, outside his own participation and enjoyment of the game, I don't really see a Village!Scientist being so adamant about self-preserving. I certainly don't mind losing it, if Mat is village. The previous anon game proved that we can triumph from really good analysis, rather than depending on roles. And for someone who apparently really wants to live, I don't see Mat being that interested in his role. Not like Stick just did in the ninja I just got (I feel your pain, Stick. This is my third attempt at writing this post and I've now resorted to having multiple tabs of drafts open). Stick's exact response is more in line with what I'd expect from an Epic Villager.

 

Conclusion #2: I can no longer trust anything Mat says in this game.

  Reveal hidden contents

Check out this progression.

One part of my problem here is that Mat has set a precedent in this game for susing people without proper engagement (confirming whether or not his perceived tell was true, easily dismissing it and poke voting an extremely low-inactive Dannnex). Even ignoring that he got distracted by replying to wall posts later, I just don't see why Villager!Mat would write it off so quickly without pursuing anybody else. Furthermore, when scrutinized even a little, the foundation completely falls apart. It was based on incorrect memories in the first place, which leaves me wondering how much else of what he's said can be trusted. More thoughts on this in the Conclusion #3. 

But for now, this happens:

Why is this not an immediate concern? This post was dropped 10 hours ago; plenty of time to start a new wagon, especially on a player you believe has an elim tell. I think it's a compelling enough argument that could easily get people on board. Even if it doesn't, what harm would bringing @Szeth_Pancakes into the exe conversation do? Again, I don't see a villager trying to solve the game. I see a player doing anything they can to survive.

Even Kas has pointed out that in a past game, V!Mat has let himself get exed (with a role) for information.
Also that E!Mat has roleclaimed in a response to becoming an exe candidate.

Words are just wind. Actions are matter. And no matter how much I try to see this game from Village!Mat's perspective, I don't feel the actions line up at all. They do line up with an elim with a role though. An elim with TMI that Szeth will flip Village, which he'd know when dismissing the supposed tell, and would now look really bad on him if Szeth was exed today over Stick, which conveniently was initiated by other players that, if in the event of a Village flip, would make the initiators look worse, rather than just him.

 

Conclusion #3: Mat has been using his own meta awareness to dictate his elim playstyle this game.

  Reveal hidden contents

I find myself repeatedly drawn to this specific post, which was the biggest thing that raised the hairs on the back of my neck.

Ignoring the "surely" versus "I think" language, what Mat is saying about his Village meta is that he's more careful about looking elimmy when Village. If that's true, why wasn't he more careful about pointing out an unconfirmed Szeth-elim tell? Why did he drop the thought and dismiss it in one breath without confirming it one way or another?

Here's what I think, based on his other comments about his meta.

Mat is aware of what he does as a Villager. I think the cognitive dissonance I've experienced when comparing what he says to what he does is a result of forcing himself to act like he would as a Villager, rather than actually being one. This is why his early game matches his meta in letter, but not in spirit. Look at this, for another example.

Mat's votes today:

1. Page one soft-ball poke vote on Thaidakar, a new player.
2. Random vote on Dannnex for "no reason."
3. Self-preservation on the other exe candidate, Stick.

It's also worth nothing Mat's progression on Stick:

Mat pivots from "liking how Stick was interacting with the thread" / "Adding to the saga of me disagreeing with Illwei" to "I don't know what I read Stick, after considering Illwei's take on them" to "I can see Illwei's interpretation being true" / "the elims interacting with the suspicion on me are more likely to be found in the peripherals, the ones that were more non-commital and on the side. Stick fits that perfectly," all on his own, without prompting beyond his potential death.

It's one thing to vote Stick because you want to live. It's another thing to say you're doing that, then come up with reasons to put them in a reads list as Slight Elim.

This on top of the fact Stick ninja'd me with a post that I'm reading as village is just too convenient for my liking. Araris being his only other Slight Elim read + Szeth being his only Null- read + having 8 Village / Slight Village reads = a very skeptical Amanuensis.

 

Bonus Evidence:

  Reveal hidden contents

 

 

Final Thought:

Matrim.

I hope this will be the last big post I make this game (Sorry Orlok).

 

ED1T:

Matrim.

Actually better to reserve my vote for now. (6) Mat to (5) Stick invites more opportunity for any would-be saviors to get involved.

 

ED2T:

Oh, and I might as well address the Dannnex thing since I've seen it brought up a couple times but was too focused on Mat to reply.

  Reveal hidden contents

 

 

 

 

These are his only posts. I initially found his opening ("blackouts are fun") as an indication that he's got some role (not a Regular) or is more aware of the game's distro (elim). At the time of me mentioning it, I wasn't against exeing a role intentionally (yay GM confirmed information), so for a D1 vote, it felt like a win-win.

Lately, though, I dunno how I feel. I haven't noticed him viewing the game so I don't know if he's lurking or simply not engaged in the game. He was online 5 hours ago though, which makes me wonder: if blackouts are so fun, why isn't he participating?

@Dannnex

Oh! And I had a tinfoil theory for a while that Thaidakar, Dannnex, and Matrim were E/E/V or E/E/E based on the early game name mixup. 

[The timestamp for the quote is off, but that's because I had a formatting error and had to c/p the content of the post I was trying to quote into the box for the post Aman just made]

Yeah I'm not even going to bother responding to this. I haven't opened the spoiler boxes and I probably will at some point, but I've spent the entire game responding I think pretty well to these kinds of posts and clearly it hasn't changed anyone's minds. So I'm gonna use the hour I have left to try to leave you with something useful

31 minutes ago, Karnatheon said:

Ok I just got caught up, just barely by skimming. Not gonna be active but might be able to keep up around rollover if it isn't actually insane

Archer

Mat

Oh look a psuedo-inactive pops in to vote me that's not sus at all  

Serious question I've been meaning to ask for a while, to anyone: First, can you name anyone who's defended me at all this game, at any point, ever? Didn't think so. Second, you're fine with voting me when it would mean that my teammates all collectively agreed I was completely on my own from the beginning? Elim meta recently has been decently anti-bus so this also is super unlikely. The only resistence my exe has had came from me.

Edited February 12, 2022 by Matrim's Dice

[STINK he/him]

44 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

That's a fair take. I'm curious if, after you eat and wake up more, you could articulate why the vote gives you bad vibes.

To be frank (however that guy be doing)

17 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

  Reveal hidden contents

ED1T:

Despite THEmemeing, not wholly proud of my part in this >> 

Fun fact, I guess images don't get brought along when you quote someone but I'm sure you get what I'm attempting to do here. Is the whole debacle with page 6 there's options (most of which are unfounded but hey D1) then Matrim gets involved with quotes upon quotes and people quote the quotes of the quotes of the last 9 pages or so and then the vote has solidified around two people. 

Ok I wrote this then looked at the votes on Stick to like solidify my thoughts and think I got to my crux of it.

23 hours ago, Tani said:

Stick

 

23 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I see that VC, and- I know this looks weird considering the reads I've posted, I know- go Stick (Dannnex) as the candidate I like best. That isn't to say I read Stick as elim. I don't read Stick as strictly elim. I don't know what I read Stick, after considering Illwei's take on them, which makes a lot of sense to me. But I read Exp and Illwei as village (Exp for previously stated reasons, and Illwei because of her solving style- reads legitimate to me in its progression. And because we're mindmelding on some things.)

 

13 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

hi

skipped last couple posts in the thread

concert about to start

Stick Illwei

 

13 hours ago, Illwei said:

Don't have much time to post.

All the voters on Stick haven't talked at all about anything. What brings you from voting against me to voting with me ok a wagon I created, striker?

So main thing here is that's three votes on Stick just because? At least with Matrim I can see some discourse, where the Stick votes are Illwei did it then others have said good reasoning I'm hopping on? Illwei's reasoning (from the boxes of 123) is

"Stick is an Elim because her posts, despite interacting with people, don't seem to have any sort of thoughts behind them. A kind of idle banter that isn't idle banter at first glance but still is. Speaking without saying anything."

Which like idk apparently that spoke to three or four different people enough to switch their vote to Stick? Or Illwei is just some figurehead I'm missing out on due to not playing the last games cause people keep talking about the last few games and isn't that just great. 

I guess what I'm trying to say here is that no matter what Stick flips, we get to conclude that people follow Illwei? Don't like reasoning? Maybe they are just not in thread? At least the Matrim vote debacle has some discourse behind it, but then that doesn't really mean anything for being elim or village? 

I hope anyone gets what I'm like meaning here I might have to make a second post with more stuff but I do wanna be watching six nations so

Idk bad vibes

[Thaidakar the Ghostblood he/him]

I am beginning to think Mat is not an elim according to some posts I have seen. I am too lazy to go grab them though (forgive me.) 

But I am pretty sure it is Karnatheon.

[Experience he/him]

6 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Serious question I've been meaning to ask for a while, to anyone: First, can you name anyone who's defended me at all this game, at any point, ever? Didn't think so. Second, you're fine with voting me when it would mean that my teammates all collectively agreed I was completely on my own from the beginning? Elim meta recently has been decently anti-bus so this also is super unlikely. The only resistence my exe has had came from me.

*wave*

At this point I don't know my feelings about you so... *shrug*

[Mat he/him]

3 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Again, I don't see a villager trying to solve the game. I see a player doing anything they can to survive.

Even Kas has pointed out that in a past game, V!Mat has let himself get exed (with a role) for information.
Also that E!Mat has roleclaimed in a response to becoming an exe candidate.

I absolutely am doing anything I can to survive :P. I already mentioned how I prioritized defending myself over digging for solving, and I'm not saying this because I think it will convince you of anything- I understand why it's making you elim read me- I'm saying it so that when I flip you can hopefully go back and like, understand why I did what I did. Which wasn't the most responsible village choice, perhaps a bit selfish, I get that- it's why I resolved to work on my playstyle in future games.

/shrug idk what the difference is. Something in my mental headspace is making me more resistant this time around :P. But I did say I'm resigned to my death, and if I survive I'm just gonna plague you all for cycle after cycle so it is probably best if you just get my flip and move from there.

...Yeah, but so has v!Mat? Lol.

I know I said I wasn't gonna respond to that post lol but I wanted to respond to that part in particular.

Edit: Oh and what is with your 'bonus evidence' box. Looks like you just grabbed random quotes xD

Edited February 12, 2022 by Matrim's Dice

[StrikerEZ he/him]

@Amanuensis Simply put, I think you’re reaching. The question point is just absurd to suspect anyone over. I also had an interesting role and asked one question (at first) and got an answer. So it made sense to me that someone else who did that and saw other people getting mostly PAFOs would react the way Mat did. Heck, that’s how I reacted. As for Mat’s role itself, I don’t understand how it makes more sense for it to be an elim role. Assuming there are village Epics, which I think makes sense, the elims having that role would immediately tell them that there are non-elim Epics. Kind of defeats the point of keeping this game as a blackout imo. 

Anyway, I’ve been debating whether or not I should do this, but I figure this is for the best. I’m a neutral Epic who has beaten their weakness and is no longer evil. I have a wincon of my own that I will keep to myself for now. In addition, my role is that I cannot be killed except through the exe. Any actions beyond the exe that target me will be randomly redirected onto another player from the team of the player who targeted me.