Illwei Posted October 4, 2020 Posted October 4, 2020 (edited) 4 minutes ago, JesterLavorre said: I have a gut feeling that he is village. I don’t know why, and I don’t trust that feeling one bit. That's an interesting gut feeling but I also understand the feeling lol. You know, Silber Reading I don't like doing this but he is my top read right now. Matrim and Straw don't feel completely village to me though. Edited October 4, 2020 by Illwei
Mat he/him Posted October 4, 2020 Posted October 4, 2020 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Illwei said: That's an interesting gut feeling but I also understand the feeling lol. You know, Silber Reading I don't like doing this but he is my top read right now. Matrim and Straw don't feel completely village to me though. dskjabhlidfjbvlaiuwvblwhyamIdoingthiskjsnfjsnvkajbefkjavbk Shard of Reading, I'm sorry. I'm also sorry for Experience. Good luck with these changes And I really am going to bed now. Edited October 4, 2020 by Matrim's Dice 1
The Windrunner Supreme he/him Posted October 4, 2020 Posted October 4, 2020 Shard of Reading Just a gut feeling. Im sorry
Illwei Posted October 4, 2020 Posted October 4, 2020 (edited) Um doubt I'm going to die but I wanted to jot down that Straw does seem pretty protective of silber IMO, and Jester hopping on the vote seems less suspicious then Windrunner, but still sus. Edited October 4, 2020 by Illwei
Experience he/him Posted October 4, 2020 Author Posted October 4, 2020 (edited) Another day and another night, of secrets, death, and traps Silberfarben, sound asleep, through all the day and night. He chose to sleep, and because of this, he lost his choice to wake. In the day, Pi of the Book was chosen to be killed, Second of the Dawn did fall to traps, to dark to see at night, Everyone now must be aware, Lest their fate of death do meet, In day and night combined, Must choose to wake, and never sleep, so they will always live. Shard of Reading was lynched! They were a Trapper. Lord_Silberfarben was killed! They were a Trapper. Ghanderflaffle was killed! They were a Trapper with a Spy Aviar. Vote count: Shard of Reading(5): Matrim's Dice, JesterLavorre, The Windrunner Supreme, Straw, Illwei Lord_Silberfarben(1): Ashbringer The Turn will end in just under 48 hours on Monday, October 5th, at 9:00 PM PST Player List: Spoiler 1) Lord Silberfarben: @Lord_Silberfarben: Trapper. 2) First of the Bone: @Ashbringer 3) @Elkanah 4) 2nd of the Twilight: @Kings_way 5) Pi of the Book: @Shard of Reading: Trapper. 6) Fourth of the Dark: @Gears 7) Philico: @Matrim's Dice 8) Second of the Dawn: @Ghanderflaffle: Trapper with Spy Aviar. 9) Third of the Midnight: @Vapor 10) Ninth of the Sky: @JesterLavorre 11) 295864685th of the midnight: @The Windrunner Supreme 12) First of the Clouds: @turtle 13) First of the Light: @Straw 14) Mint: @Frozen Mint 15) First of the Person: @CadCom 16) Twisp Winthrop: @Illwei Edited October 4, 2020 by Experience 1
Ashbringer he/him Posted October 4, 2020 Posted October 4, 2020 Well, for one thing that kill is... slightly awkward for me, and two, is that the Spy we just lost? Or an Aviar Spy?
Experience he/him Posted October 4, 2020 Author Posted October 4, 2020 Just now, Ashbringer said: Well, for one thing that kill is... slightly awkward for me, and two, is that the Spy we just lost? Or an Aviar Spy? A Spy was killed. The Spy is green. The Aviar Spy is blue.
Illwei Posted October 4, 2020 Posted October 4, 2020 So Silber was Elim killed? I assume? it seems he didn't have an Aviar and I assume that Ghander was killed by traps. @Experience I assume we won't know the difference between a Nightmaw kill and a normal Elim kill? was going to ask this D1 but I was hoping someone else would so I could semi-clear them for it. no one really asked any questions so I can't think of someone who intentionally overlooked it. All I could think is Elk who might ask/intentionally not ask but he hasn't been active so that tells me nothing. :P. -- Assuming 4 Elims that means we're at.. 4/9 ? I'm not going to think about more people dying to traps, so...I guess we can kill two more villagers before being in trouble... but...only 1 if more people are going to die to the traps.... I need to think about the last cycle's votes. I pointed out slight suspicion on Reading, which Matrim and Straw jumped on, then Matrim backed off, then I voted Silber which Jester and Ash jumped on, then Jester backed off, then Matrim voted Ash, then Matrim took his vote off of Ash, then Jester took his vote off of Silber, then Matrim voted Reading, then Jester and Windrunner voted Reading? is that right? I need to think. for now Straw
Experience he/him Posted October 4, 2020 Author Posted October 4, 2020 6 minutes ago, Illwei said: I assume we won't know the difference between a Nightmaw kill and a normal Elim kill? You will be told if the Nightmaw is released, but not who it kills.
Elkanah he/him Posted October 4, 2020 Posted October 4, 2020 (edited) I'm so sorry everyone. Life is a little hectic I'll be working about sixty hours this week, so my activity will drop noticeably for the next about two cycles. I will make a good analysis post every 24 hour day, but it's likely to be either right before or after rollover time. Speaking of, I'll get started on that now EDIT since I'm the only one up this late. Ok, first the rules clarification post I should have done last cycle. @Experience Sorry if any of these have already been asked. I did my best to see if these had already been clarified, but I may have missed it. Spoiler Does someone with the healing aviar have to specify if they are protecting from traps/ elim kill or is it a passive protect that fails to protect from a double tap? Just to be clear, the spy is village specific and the good looking aviar is elim specific based on the colors and anything else could go either way? (I don't know what a traitor gets from the spy or a villager from the good looking, but I just want to be sure). If an aviar trapper is trapped by another of the same, is the aviar trapped by the first released? Ooh, that could use some explanation. If a messenger aviar is captured by Wilson's trapper, then Fifth Scholar traps Wilson's trapper; is the trapped messenger released, or is Wilson simply unable to use an action thus paralyzing the messenger until both trappers have moved on? How does the trapper interact with the good looking aviar? Does the trapper only work on active abilities or does it apply to static ones as well? If the elim kill comes before the lynch in the order of actions, does that mean the elims can nullify votes by killing someone voting for them? Or is the order of actions read from bottom to top? That would allow the healer action to prevent elim kills, but not the lynch. Does that mean we can lynch the elim sending in the kill and thus nullify the attack? If the nightmaw kills the traitor setting it off, is it appeased and therefore won't kill its target? Nevermind, I found this answer. Now that's done let's look at what happened with the lynch Spoiler Vote 1 Matrim pokes Cadcom for returning Vote 2 Matrim unpokes Cadcom for showing up Vote 3 Straw gut votes Shard of Reading Vote 4 Matrim gut votes Shard of Reading. Agrees with Straw Vote 5 Matrim unvotes Shard of Reading. Cites Reading's reads list Vote 6 Matrim pokes Lord Silberfarben Vote 7 Illwei contribution votes Silberfarben Vote 8 Jester bandwagons Silberfarben Vote 9 Ashbringer contribution votes Silberfarben Vote 10 Matrim retracts Silberfarben. No reasons given Vote 11 Matrim votes Ashbringer to add another option Vote 12 Jester unvotes Silberfarben Vote 13 Matrim unvotes Ashbringer Vote 14 Illwei unvotes Silberfarben Vote 15 Illwei gut votes Reading Vote 16 Matrim votes Reading and apologizes Vote 17 Jester votes Reading and apologizes Vote 18 Windrunner gut votes Reading and apologizes After that readthrough I have a bad gut feeling about Matrim. Let me go through his posts and see if I can figure out why Spoiler Post 1 Poke vote. RP. NAI Post 2 NAI Post 3 Gears claim NAI Post 4 Gears info NAI Post 5 Trusts Turtle, Distrusts Reading Post 6 Retracts poke. Says Reading's post makes him more uneasy but will wait longer before voting. Post 7 NAI Post 8 Votes Shard of Reading after Straw does. I think this was the first thing that set me off. Maybe post 6 as well. It just felt sudden when I read it. I feel a little better now that I see he's already expressed suspicion of Reading twice. Though it's still interesting he waited to vote until someone else did. Post 9 Day 1 Lynch NAI Post 10 Day 1 Lynch NAI Post 11 Unvotes Reading because they are just coming back and votes for Silberfarben for activity Post 12 Agrees with Windrunner on gut read on Reading, but doesn't want to eliminate them yet. Post 13 Comments on Jester following his vote on Silberfarben Post 14 Says his vote for Silberfarben was never meant to lead to a lynch... which is interesting. I think I'm coming around on Araris' concept of stab votes so it could just be my perception of what day one votes are for is changing. If I'm honest it's NAI, but I something is nagging at me. Also doesn't unvote Silberfarben Post 15 Unvotes silberfarben Post 16 Votes Ashbringer to put an alternative up for the lynch Post 17 Says he voted Ashbringer because their vote on Silberfarben seemed weird Post 18 Says he'll vote Reading on Day 2 Post 19 Retracts vote on Ashbringer because elim Ashbringer wouldn't have joined the train. Plans to not vote. Post 20 Expresses suspicion of Straw Post 21 Votes Shard of Reading and signs off. Sorry, I didn't finish linking all the posts. It's getting pretty late. Pretty much I have a weird feeling about his first vote for Reading and that may have just been the timing. Then he votes for Silberfarben, but not to start a lynch on him. I'm not sure what you were hoping for in that case. I understand the vote on Ashbringer for jumping on a lynch train. I find both Ashbringer and Jester a little suspicious for their reactions to other people's votes. I am guessing you were not voting Jester to let them play a bit longer and learn the ropes, but you didn't really bring them up at all even though they were doing the same thing as Ashbringer did, but more often. TL;DR the people I find most suspicious for right now are Matrim, Jester and maybe Ashbringer. I'll try and look more into other interactions tomorrow. Edited October 4, 2020 by Elkanah
Experience he/him Posted October 4, 2020 Author Posted October 4, 2020 8 hours ago, Elkanah said: Does someone with the healing aviar have to specify if they are protecting from traps/ elim kill or is it a passive protect that fails to protect from a double tap? They just choose who to protect, and it fails to protect from a double tap. 8 hours ago, Elkanah said: Just to be clear, the spy is village specific and the good looking aviar is elim specific based on the colors and anything else could go either way? The spy is village specific, the good-looking is elim specific, and all other aviar can be on either side. 8 hours ago, Elkanah said: If an aviar trapper is trapped by another of the same, is the aviar trapped by the first released? Ooh, that could use some explanation. If a messenger aviar is captured by Wilson's trapper, then Fifth Scholar traps Wilson's trapper; is the trapped messenger released, or is Wilson simply unable to use an action thus paralyzing the messenger until both trappers have moved on? If an aviar trapper's Aviar is trapped, then the aviar that was trapped before is released. So the messenger would be released. 8 hours ago, Elkanah said: How does the trapper interact with the good looking aviar? Does the trapper only work on active abilities or does it apply to static ones as well? It applies to static abilites. If it traps a good looking aviar, then if that elim would not have the protection from scans. 8 hours ago, Elkanah said: If the elim kill comes before the lynch in the order of actions, does that mean the elims can nullify votes by killing someone voting for them? Or is the order of actions read from bottom to top? That would allow the healer action to prevent elim kills, but not the lynch. Does that mean we can lynch the elim sending in the kill and thus nullify the attack? No, the vote still happens. It's just that the elim kill happens first, then the lynched dies next. Actions go from top to bottom. Even if an elim that submits a kill dies, the kill will still go through. 1
Mint11 she/her Posted October 4, 2020 Posted October 4, 2020 Hello all, just wanted to pop in to say that I will be posting today. I did take a couple of quick looks at the thread during D1 but nothing immediately popped out at me and I was far too tired to go digging for something.
Mat he/him Posted October 4, 2020 Posted October 4, 2020 ...So at first I was pretty confused but I realize now that Ghander died to traps... unfortunate, that... 10 hours ago, Elkanah said: Post 8 Votes Shard of Reading after Straw does. I think this was the first thing that set me off. Maybe post 6 as well. It just felt sudden when I read it. I feel a little better now that I see he's already expressed suspicion of Reading twice. Though it's still interesting he waited to vote until someone else did. I felt better voting when I knew I wasn't the only one. I was sorta on the fringe on voting Reading anyway (and stayed that way, as evidenced by my flip-flopping) so seeing that someone else shared what I was thinking was sorta comforting. Of course, I later questioned that shared thinking, but I'm not certain where I'll go with that thought. 10 hours ago, Elkanah said: Post 14 Says his vote for Silberfarben was never meant to lead to a lynch... which is interesting. I think I'm coming around on Araris' concept of stab votes so it could just be my perception of what day one votes are for is changing. If I'm honest it's NAI, but I something is nagging at me. Also doesn't unvote Silberfarben My poke votes are never really meant for a lynch, just to generate activity. (Also, I picked Silber because he's always inactive, so it's sorta a grudge poke as well, but I still never intended to start a train.) My perspective on D1 votes is to poke some people, get them to talk, and when enough people are talking there's probably someone that stands out enough to find suspicious. Sides would start to form, and after the lynch you'd be able to identify some things. Like how Windrunner and Jester's votes were really strange. I think Windrunner has more of an excuse over Jester, so I find them more suspicious. Especially since they went for Silber as well. I'm also trying to figure out why Silber was elim killed. Probably to through suspicion on Ash and Jester. So maybe I should lay off on them for now.
Gears Posted October 4, 2020 Posted October 4, 2020 The night's events have struck me as odd. I went to sleep before discussion closed and everything changed. Ninth of the Sky and 295864685th of the Midnight voted without explanation. First of the Light and Philico strike me as odd, Philico significantly more than Light, though First of the Bone has been noted. Second of the Dawn fell victim to traps. Despite their relative newness, they had a Spy. That was quite possibly the only one in our midst, so we are at a distinct disadvantage now. In addition, Lord Silberfarben was killed in the night, which is odd considering they were asleep for the past day. Perhaps they thought the general populace was doing a fine job of confusing themselves and wanted to throw more psychedelics into the flames. For some strange reason, I instinctively distrust Light more than Philico, despite the fact that Philico has been more suspicious. I would be amenable to lynching either, though I have no particular preference between the two. Both would offer valuable information. Elkanah's analysis makes me think well of them. There are probably 4 traitors left. This means that we can afford two failures, assuming no further trap deaths. However, there is about a 10-15% chance of a person dying from traps. Assume 15%, 3/20, 1/7. Assuming 2-3 people sneak about every night, a person will die every 2-4 cycles. Not a major issue, but one to be aware of. If we do not catch a traitor within 2 cycles, we will be at risk.
Straw he/him Posted October 4, 2020 Posted October 4, 2020 So, looks like we're down three villagers. One was a spy and another was entirely inactive. Let's start out with my reads: Illwei: Prompted people to be active and seemed to have good interactions with people. Mild village. Elkanah: Gave some analysis and suspicions. Very mild village. Matrim's Dice: Lots of vote changing. Felt village to me initially, but I'm less sure about that when I look back. Very mild village. CadCom: Kind of inactive. Said they would be holding off analysis until today. Nothing else. Null. Frozen Mint: Inactive. Has said that they'll post today. Null. Kings_way: Entirely inactive. Null. turtle: No alignment indicative posts. Null. Vapor: Inactive. Said they'd have something today. Null. Ashbringer: Advocated for Silber vote, narrowed down options a lot based on meta. Very mild elim. Gears: Mainly mechanics discussion. Looked at posts but considered everyone null. Very mild elim. The Windrunner Supreme: Thought one elim in Matrim/Reading. Voted Reading off of gut. Very mild elim. JesterLavorre: Followed "consensus" on Silber without other reason. Also followed onto Reading, despite having a gut feeling that they were village. Mild elim. I think that the best thing we can do right now is try to sort out that group of null reads in the middle. @CadCom / @eltruT / @Kings_way what are your thoughts on the game? I'll put my vote on JesterLavorre for now.
+JesterLavorre she/they Posted October 4, 2020 Posted October 4, 2020 Ok, because there’s some suspicion being put on me, I’d like to explain myself. Basically, my thought process last round was “I don’t want to just be inactive, but I don’t really know how this works well enough to make a confident vote.” So, I decided to share my opinion and then vote for whoever everyone else went after, assuming they knew better than me. At first, it seemed like people were voting for Silber, so I voted them, misinterpreting a poke vote as people actually considering voting Silber out. After it was clarified to me that it was just a poke vote, I retracted my vote. Later, I shared my opinion on who may be suspicious. I thought reading seemed like the logical choice, but had a gut feeling he was village. Other people started voting reading, so I figured I would trust my logical analysis and other people’s opinions over a gut feeling, so I voted Reading.
Gears Posted October 4, 2020 Posted October 4, 2020 1 hour ago, Straw said: Gears: Mainly mechanics discussion. Looked at posts but considered everyone null. Very mild elim. First of the Light is appearing more and more suspicious in my eyes. The only reason they seem to consider me suspicious is because I considered everyone to be unsuspicious, but earlier today, I brought up my suspicions on the basis of yesterday's outcome, including Light and Philico, as well as the two newer trappers to some extent [Ninth of the Sky and 295864685th of the Midnight, they would be the main suspects if they were experienced, I am reducing that because of their lack of knowledge.] Given that this point against me is effectively nullified, there is no reason for this suspicion. 3 minutes ago, JesterLavorre said: Basically, my thought process last round was “I don’t want to just be inactive, but I don’t really know how this works well enough to make a confident vote.” So, I decided to share my opinion and then vote for whoever everyone else went after, assuming they knew better than me. Poor beginner. Share your thoughts, young one. Explain reasoning always, even if there seems to be none. Never declare a vote without purpose. Confidence is irrelevant so long as the reason is explained. Never change your mind simply because people disagree with you. Only do it if you are unquestionably wrong. In addition, do not trust anyone, even the ones who analyse and synthesise wisdom. No one knows better than you except the traitors, who know what everything is. Everyone else languishes with the exact knowledge you do. Trust not their instincts, for they are designed to lead you astray. I can understand the confusion of a poke vote vs a real vote, but do not leap upon the votes of others. Trust yourself, your logic, and your instincts. You know as much as everyone.
Straw he/him Posted October 4, 2020 Posted October 4, 2020 21 minutes ago, Gears said: First of the Light is appearing more and more suspicious in my eyes. The only reason they seem to consider me suspicious is because I considered everyone to be unsuspicious, but earlier today, I brought up my suspicions on the basis of yesterday's outcome, including Light and Philico, as well as the two newer trappers to some extent [Ninth of the Sky and 295864685th of the Midnight, they would be the main suspects if they were experienced, I am reducing that because of their lack of knowledge.] Given that this point against me is effectively nullified, there is no reason for this suspicion. I went over your posts before you actually made that post.
Kings_way he/they Posted October 5, 2020 Posted October 5, 2020 (edited) I don't have much to say. The people in the LG are acting pretty much the same, but that isn't too helpful because I don't know all their alignments in that. Jes and the Windrunner supreme both jumped on the Reading bandwagon without much reasoning. Jes did provide some explanations in previous posts, while the WS (hope that abbreviation is okay) just said they had a gut read. I'm willing to cut them a little slack, as I can understand not wanting to get killed on your first game, and voting with the group. I am still more suspicious of them than Jes, so The Windrunner Supreme. This probably isn't permanent, it's just my best idea, and I don't want to forget to vote. Edited October 5, 2020 by Kings_way
CadCom he/him Posted October 5, 2020 Posted October 5, 2020 Wow, that doesn't look like a great start. A trapper with a spy aviar was killed, and two other trappers. So I think Ganderflaffle would have been killed by chance, since the other two are normal trappers. That leaves Silberfarben to have been killed by the elims, and Reading to have been killed by the lynch, as we know already. As for this cycle, voting is so far as follows: Straw (1): Illwei JesterLavorre(1): Straw Windrunner Supreme (1): Kings_way. That's not a whole lot of activity, which only benefits the elims. I'll go ahead and look at the votes on Reading. Those people are Matrim's Dice, JesterLavorre, The Windrunner Supreme, Straw, Illwei. First thing I want to note, is of those people, Matrim's dice is the only person not to be voted on or to have voted this cycle, (as of when I type this paragraph). The problem for me is that each of these players, except straw, is essentially new to me, so I don't know if they've played 5 games or 1 or none, or if they played mafia at at different platform before coming here. In addition to that, I know nothing of their playstyle. So Matrims Dice: Poke voted me early, then removed the poke vote once I came on. That's NAI. With regards to the vote on Reading, it was the second vote during the push in the last half hour of the cycle. The vote on Reading seemed to not have much supporting reasoning in that post, but they were part of a pretty significant discussion, and expressed their opinion a fair amount of time. I'll keep it as nai right now JesterLavorre: Jester also didn't put any reasoning behind their vote when they actually voted. But even though they weren't actively commenting, there is evidence from their posts that they had been following along in the discussion. Windrunner Supreme: The gut feeling also put the 4th vote on Reading. The only alternative with any vote at the time was silberfarben, and everyone was really already backing off of them. To me it feels like they read through the comments and just voted on the person that most people decided to vote on. Illwei started the last minute train. But they was also part of the discussion as well prior to that. Part of me says it looks like Illwei is village, but the other part of me thinks that it looks like Illwei saw Jester uncertain, and decided to try to change the lynch to someone just to get Jester to follow. And it looks like that worked. The only problem with that theory is that the secondary candidate (Silber) was also killed and turned up village. Straw is the only player of these that I'm certain I've played with before. This makes my read of them more complicated to put down. I've always had a tough time reading straw, though I do agree with Illwei that straw did seem pretty protective of Silber, but then Silber died. It could still be a pocketing, or distancing tactic. Making it look like straw was only protecting another villager. I also find it interesting that Silber was the topic of a good portion of the discussion, then later killed. Anyhow, The way I see it, there are 2 main possibilities, with each possibility having subpossibilities( In order of most to least likely IMO) 1. There are at least one elim among those that voted on Reading A. Windrunner B. Illwei C. Straw D. Matrim E. Jester 2. There are no elims that voted on Reading I hope to do further analysis on this possibility either later today or tomorrow.
Mat he/him Posted October 5, 2020 Posted October 5, 2020 Just now, CadCom said: I don't know if they've played 5 games or 1 or none, or if they played mafia at at different platform before coming here. In addition to that, I know nothing of their playstyle. I can't really describe what my playstyle is, or what other people see it as, but I've played almost every game since May this year. MR42 was my first. This is Jester and Windrunner's first real game (Jester played a ffa quick fix). I think I found a tell to clear Illwei, and I agree with Reading's clear of turtle (eltruT?) Of the possible candidates, I find Straw the most suspicious, though I don't a whole lot. I'm not investing a lot of myself in this game with the LG and school going, hopefully after the LG ends I'll do more.
Illwei Posted October 5, 2020 Posted October 5, 2020 6 minutes ago, CadCom said: I also find it interesting that Silber was the topic of a good portion of the discussion, then later killed. I'm wondering if he got Elim killed because I was talking about how we shouldn't kill him, which removes him as a daykill target for the Mafia, and he's the least informational Elim kill. of course, other people seemed pretty okay with voting him out...soo.....idk. 4 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: I think I found a tell to clear Illwei adfajsldfdhsaiufjasdfk I hate people saying they found tells on me agh
Mat he/him Posted October 5, 2020 Posted October 5, 2020 (edited) 2 minutes ago, Illwei said: I'm wondering if he got Elim killed because I was talking about how we shouldn't kill him, which removes him as a daykill target for the Mafia, and he's the least informational Elim kill. of course, other people seemed pretty okay with voting him out...soo.....idk. adfajsldfdhsaiufjasdfk I hate people saying they found tells on me agh Silber was the elim kill because he didn't have an aviar. Ghander must have died to traps. I'm not voting on Windrunner or Jester because I think Silber was killed to incriminate the later voters on him. This is a good one, though. It was just a post word choice that anyone could have done but is like 'that's village' Edited October 5, 2020 by Matrim's Dice
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