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Posted

Mat voting late isn't the greatest thing in the world, but I agree that he'd probably be smarter than that as an Elim. Straw's a good player to have around in the late game. Lynching Mat to softclear Straw could be useful... but I think Windrunner's mostly alone in suspecting Straw. I certainly don't right now.

I'm still weirded out by Elkanah this game - not a lot of analysis besides the votes on himself - but I could support a Windrunner lynch.

Posted
1 minute ago, Ashbringer said:

Mat voting late isn't the greatest thing in the world, but I agree that he'd probably be smarter than that as an Elim. Straw's a good player to have around in the late game. Lynching Mat to softclear Straw could be useful... but I think Windrunner's mostly alone in suspecting Straw. I certainly don't right now.

I'm still weirded out by Elkanah this game - not a lot of analysis besides the votes on himself - but I could support a Windrunner lynch.

Guess I should soft clear Straw then...

Windrunner definitely being weird, especially from my perspective of knowing I’m a villager. I’m not sure if it’s elim newbie weird or village newbie weird. I’d think his teammates would advise him to stop tunneling on me.

...Unless the rest of his teammates are inactive. There’s my paranoid thought of the day.

@Experience, do you have to vote count?

Posted (edited)

Okay, had a lot to do today, involving forgetting how to car and making the battery die, but I'm back now in time for rollover so that's all that matters, right?

Gears, Windrunner, and Elkanah are the Elim team.

Since we're at 7/4, the Elims only need 3 more to die to win: therefore they have a Possibility of winning tonight if people die to traps. So with a possibility of winning tonight (that I am not going to calculate as I do not math in the slightest, if someone wants to try that then be my guest), what do we see?

22 hours ago, Elkanah said:

That's fair. I promise to be the most helpful ever starting Friday morning. Basically I'm asking for a stay of execution for one cycle. Then if I haven't changed your mind, I don't blame you for lynching me.

Now here we have Elk being inactive because he's busy, but he doesn't even seem to be attempting analysis. He asks for one cycle, wherein he will probably do some actual analysis if the cycle exists, and therefore people will start to lay off of him. 

Now before that, Gears had placed a vote on me. Why? I mean, I'm not really reading Gear's posts that much but the point is he probably gave some form of reasoning that probably made some form of sense. Now this was after Matrim had already expressed suspicion of me, and also after Gears had made his first post about Voting Matrim. now, did he mention me as a suspect in the first post? no. not at all. Not until after more people expressed suspicion of my switch (which happened hours before Gears' first post ,so he could have mentioned it there) did he switch his vote to me. 
By doing this he was hoping to get Matrim, and probably a few others, to switch to me. If they were able to get me successfully voted out (and the game had not ended yet), then eyes would turn to Matrim, as he was the #1 target the day before. (I mean, Matrim has been doing a good job of making themselves suspicious, but it's just to overly suspicious for me to believe he's an Elim. I guess if he is then cool ig.)

Alas for Gears, nobody caught on, so he turned to back to Matrim, hours later, nearing the end of the Cycle. In addition, he comments:

8 hours ago, Gears said:

I think Elkanah should be granted their stay of execution, since we can always kill them later, and I don't think a Winthrop lynch will be successful, as no one has joined me

Which is not completely true, as if things go well for the Elims, there will be no later. and if there is a later, Elkanah will probably have provided analysis, possibly easing the minds of those suspecting him. Gears also comments for the second time about how he "may be tunneling", which is weird to me, because I never saw it like that, and pointing that out on yourself could be a way to try to get a IKYK village read (this only works in the case of other people also not thinking he's tunneling though, so possibly irrelevant)

Now we turn to Windrunner:

1 hour ago, The Windrunner Supreme said:

Just vote matrim. He will turn out to be elim

He has been so pushy at Matrim, right? why would an Elim be that pushy? Because there's not much to lose. They might win this cycle after all, and maybe they'll be able to vote me out next cycle if it happens? and what else does this extreme tunnel do? Help split the vote. Ash Mentioned they'd be up for a windrunner vote? Matrim threw out some Windrunner suspicion? well, what a coinqydink that Straw voted windrunner. 

Now if only two deaths happen, then it goes to 5/4 with a Matrim dying, and even though village still outnumbers the Elims they might be able to control if they are...idk. Smart? and if not then I guess it drops to 4/3, and then 3/2, but all they need is one trap kill and the game is won for them. and they might be able to control the vote by then possibly. 

Well I mean I've only pointed out 3 Elims, and this revolves around there being 4...
uh, Turtle voted on Matrim. Uh, so Idk but Straw is also looking like a possibility because of the windrunner vote timing IMO, possibly Ash for suggesting it. Who else is here? right uh, Idk I don't think Cadcom. Forgot Kings_Way was in here, so that's a possibility. 

So My trusts are Matrim and CadCom, uh, no one else. Cadcom a bit more than matrim.

Anyways, don't split the vote this close to rollover, guys.

Elkanah

EDIT:
 

2 hours ago, eltruT said:

Illwei has also been going after a lot of people, but I've never played a game with him (Or anyone here, for that matter), so it might just be his play style

Er, I mean, it's not really my playstyle? I don't think? I just-
Like okay, take for example this post. I have a lot of smaller things I would have done if I could have gotten on and seem things earlier to try and test things out, like maybe making myself look suspicious (yeah, no) or Idk, something else. I had Ideas earlier while writing this that I forgot about, but they were all probbaly going to look kinda suspicious altogether if I couldn't have gotten on earlier and spaced them out to actually get reactions lol. Idk/ 

No i don't think it's really my playstyle idk. I can't afford my playstyle.

Edited by Illwei
Posted
8 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Anyways, don't split the vote this close to rollover, guys.

Elkanah

 

3 minutes ago, Straw said:

Okay, I'm willing to go with that. TBH I forgot it was quite this close. Elkanah.

Thank you thank you both.

Also a note to all the new players (and CadCom): This is not my normal playstyle, village or elim. I don't know what the heck I'm doing this game :P If I survive, I'll try to be more... coherent. That's a promise.

Illwei, I think that's a great analysis. I do still find it likely that part of the elim team is inactive, though. And I don't think I ever found you suspicious? 

Current trusts: Illwei, Straw, CadCom

Posted
Just now, Matrim's Dice said:

Illwei, I think that's a great analysis. I do still find it likely that part of the elim team is inactive, though. And I don't think I ever found you suspicious?

You made some posts that could be interpreted as such

Also the analysis is probbaly completely wrong lol-

I mean no yeah some of my best work definitely as reliable as my other theories 

Posted (edited)

I'll stick with Elk as well.

(I think I still have my vote on him...)

Edit: I didn't notice the new page... I don't think that affects anything though.

Edited by Ashbringer
Posted

 

7 minutes ago, Straw said:

Okay, I'm willing to go with that. TBH I forgot it was quite this close. Elkanah.

Wow, I also didn't realize it was this close. I don't know who else I would vote on. Matrim really is my best guess. Maybe Windrunner? I'm not sure why he so sure about Matrim, but I do appreciate his vote of confidence. 

Hmm. Village windrunner only has one reason to vote for Matrim and that is he suspects Matrim is bad. I guess maybe he could think I have a useful aviar. (I don't. It's a messenger that I haven't used). 

Elim Windrunner votes on teammate Matrim to remove at the last second to enact the plan Illwei put out? I don't know why elim windrunner votes Matrim. Remove a good player before he hits his stride? Or because he thought it would be relatively easy?

12 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Now here we have Elk being inactive because he's busy, but he doesn't even seem to be attempting analysis. He asks for one cycle, wherein he will probably do some actual analysis if the cycle exists, and therefore people will start to lay off of him. 

This is true in that I will do some actual analysis if the next cycle exists. I honestly had no idea that was even a question. That does make it urgent that we do not lynch me. I understood before, but if we are that close to lylo, we need to get an actual elim. 

Just to reframe this slightly, you want to lynch me because people might start to trust me once I have time to do analysis? I see that only as a positive. I provide analysis, we catch the bad guys. This is only bad if you presuppose very surely that I am an elim.

 

I guess when I turn up village, look into - I don't know - Matrim definitely. Maybe Straw or Ashbringer? Who else is voting for me? Illwei has been really helpful at spurring conversation for him not to be village. But I've been wrong about Illwei before...

 Probably windrunner even though they tried to lynch Matrim. Maybe lynch Matrim first and then figure out his relationship with windrunner.

Posted
2 minutes ago, Elkanah said:

Elim Windrunner votes on teammate Matrim to remove at the last second to enact the plan Illwei put out? I don't know why elim windrunner votes Matrim. Remove a good player before he hits his stride? Or because he thought it would be relatively easy?

26 minutes ago, Illwei said:

I don't know if that was meant as a compliment, but I'll take it as one :D 

 

Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Elkanah said:

But I've been wrong about Illwei before...

Oh ho ho ho ho

EDIT: I am NOT an elIM this is a JOKE pleASE do not kill me

Edited by Illwei
Posted
3 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I don't know if that was meant as a compliment, but I'll take it as one :D 

 

I guess it was a little bit

2 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Oh ho ho ho ho

This was as well. 

 

I'm going to go through and try to give you my reads as best I can so I leave at least something for you to use if we get another cycle.

Posted (edited)
51 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

If I survive, I'll try to be more... coherent. That's a promise.

Hmm...Sounds Like Elk's promise but no one backed you up so I trust you more than Elk.
Uh, guys I'm just thinking, don't try and split this vote onto me now don't you dare.

@Gears saw you on a moment ago, you saying anything? I mean, we still have an hour and some, so- we have time I guess.

Does, uh, 
does anyone wanna argue against my rediculous theory? I mean...no one?

Edited by Illwei
Posted
1 minute ago, The Windrunner Supreme said:

Can anyone post the current votes?

I've been asking that for a while now... maybe you can go bug your brother about it :P 

@Experience

Posted

Ashbringer -  Suspicious for vote patterns slight elim

Elkanah - Busy and about to be lynched, but still village

Kingsway - Posted one time and voted for Windrunner. @Kings_way, we could use your help figuring this out. Null

Gears - is on my side for the moment which I appreciate. Has switched back and forth a bit, but I find his vote on Matrim consistent. slight village

Matrim - Has been eradic with votes and accusations. Has jumped on most available bandwagons. slight elim

Windrunner - I appreciate their help. The surety that Matrim was bad was weird... although, maybe they saw something. Sorry if I'm outing you, but it may be mondo important right now if you are some kind of seer that knows Matrim is bad. That makes more sense than any of my other theories. very slight village hoping you're a seer

Turtle - Is also voting for Matrim, but hasn't said much. Please come out of your shell? I super believe in you. You can help us solve this game. Null

Straw - alignment is pretty dependent on Matrim's flip. If Matrim is an elim, then Straw probably is too. If not, I think we need to keep him around. Heaven help us if he's an elim. very slight village

Mint - Hasn't been here either. @Frozen Mint, please. we need your help. You're officially obi wan. Null

CadCom - Is voting for me for fair reasons, but we could lose over this mislynch. probably village

Illwei - About the same as Straw. I really appreciate how helpful Illwei is being, but you're wrong. probably village

Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Illwei said:

What I see is:
Elk (5): Matrim, Illwei, Matrim, Straw, Ash
Matrim (4): Turtle, Windrunner, Elkanah, Gears
 

You have matrim twice. :P 

Elk (5): Matrim, Illwei, CadCom, Straw, Ash
Matrim (4): Turtle, Windrunner, Elkanah, Gears

7 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I've been asking that for a while now... maybe you can go bug your brother about it :P 

@Experience

Edited by Experience
Posted
Just now, Elkanah said:

Windrunner - I appreciate their help. The surety that Matrim was bad was weird... although, maybe they saw something. Sorry if I'm outing you, but it may be mondo important right now if you are some kind of seer that knows Matrim is bad. That makes more sense than any of my other theories. very slight village hoping you're a seer

I am village. Matrim needs to get lynched today. If Matrim turns out elim, as I suspect, than that means that illali and straw are also elim. If he is village, than we can more easily figure out who the elim are.

Posted
2 minutes ago, Experience said:

You have matrim twice. :P 

 

Eh, same outcome, for all I see is

Elk (5): Illwei, Illwei, Cadcom, Illwei, Illwei

Posted

There are just less then 40 minutes left in the turn, and I want to remind people to remember to send in their actions.

Posted
Just now, The Windrunner Supreme said:

I am village. Matrim needs to get lynched today. If Matrim turns out elim, as I suspect, than that means that illali and straw are also elim. If he is village, than we can more easily figure out who the elim are.

For a new player you seem awfully confident 

Er, not that you shouldn't be, but there is nothing that will change my mind about things until Elk flips Village. 

Posted
Just now, Experience said:

There are just less then 40 minutes left in the turn, and I want to remind people to remember to send in their actions.

Yeah, if you want to maximize the chance of Elim success, by all means, do!

But in reality, just,  whatever. just wanted to say that. hehe

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