Ashbringer he/him Posted October 10, 2020 Posted October 10, 2020 I'm here. This is... interesting. Windrunner being the other lynch to Turtle does mostly clear him, but I'm not set on that. In particular, I don't like the below very much: 1 hour ago, The Windrunner Supreme said: You were one of the people to vote on me, and I am village, so it is very suspicious. Earning Village credit is good, but immediately assuming you're clear because of it ruins the effect somewhat. I've read Straw Village so far. Not so much anymore. Listing possibilities that include the Nightmaw whiffing when the Nightmaw was quite clearly just released (and he said as much in his first post) seems like a fairly large oversight for a player of Straw's caliber... although Elim!Straw would know that too. I also don't really see the connection between the Nightmaw going out now and there being inactive Elims. I'll hold off at voting because looking at Gears and the other Mat-Straw interactions can probably make my reads better. I'll try and take a look at CadCom as well - someone else should probably do one for CadCom and myself, but I will say I wasn't on for the chaos before rollover, again. I was finally watching Endgame =) .
Straw he/him Posted October 10, 2020 Posted October 10, 2020 38 minutes ago, Ashbringer said: I've read Straw Village so far. Not so much anymore. Listing possibilities that include the Nightmaw whiffing when the Nightmaw was quite clearly just released (and he said as much in his first post) seems like a fairly large oversight for a player of Straw's caliber... although Elim!Straw would know that too. I also don't really see the connection between the Nightmaw going out now and there being inactive Elims. I was listing the possibilities as they appeared last cycle, not this cycle. The connection is that if the Nightmaw was released, then it means that when there was no kill, there was no kill submitted. This means that either the elims purposefully did not submit a kill, or they weren’t around to submit it.
Mat he/him Posted October 10, 2020 Posted October 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, Straw said: I was listing the possibilities as they appeared last cycle, not this cycle. The connection is that if the Nightmaw was released, then it means that when there was no kill, there was no kill submitted. This means that either the elims purposefully did not submit a kill, or they weren’t around to submit it. And you say that you doubt that the elims purposefully didn't submit a kill, but vote an active player?
Ashbringer he/him Posted October 10, 2020 Posted October 10, 2020 24 minutes ago, Straw said: I was listing the possibilities as they appeared last cycle, not this cycle. The connection is that if the Nightmaw was released, then it means that when there was no kill, there was no kill submitted. This means that either the elims purposefully did not submit a kill, or they weren’t around to submit it. ... that makes somewhat more sense, but you didn't say that in the post I was referring to. At least you didn't say it directly.
Straw he/him Posted October 10, 2020 Posted October 10, 2020 38 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: And you say that you doubt that the elims purposefully didn't submit a kill, but vote an active player? I was looking back at Gears' posts, and found them extremely suspicious. I decided to put my vote there in case he's an elim and the elims purposefully didn't submit a kill. I also wanted to give @Kings_way and @Frozen Mint some time to speak up and say something. I'm also kind of coming around to the viewpoint that they purposefully didn't submit a kill, or that it was a mistake (I.E. everyone thinks someone else was supposed to submit the kill), given how Elkanah was around at rollover
Gears Posted October 11, 2020 Posted October 11, 2020 I wrote this up many hours ago but forgot to share it amongst my peers. My apologies. Of the awake trappers, I still remain uncertain about Bone and Person. To aid in this endeavor, I shall analyse all of their posts. Person: Spoiler 1. Is returning. Shall analyse later. 2. Analyses lynch on Pi. Found Midnight suspicions (Didn't know they were new.) 3. Thinks new traitors would be coached to avoid supsicion. 4. Thinks Elkanah is unusually tight-lipped about solving the game. Votes for them (Good point) 5. Will not offer a stay of execution. 6. Sus of Cloud, Midnight, Dark, Light, inactives, in that order. (Cloud turned out to be an elim, so good instincts.) 7. Light and Bone most suspicious now, votes Light. Conclusion: Person is probably not a traitor due to their heading up of the lynch on Elkanah. However, it could be an elaborate bus attempt to gain trust, though that is lessened by their vote on Midnight afterwards, which possibly ruins all of their credibility. If they had instead voted for Cloud, they could have cemented their place as a trusted trapper. Bone: Spoiler 1. Late meeting. 2. Busy 3. Don't kill new people. Likes people who talk. 4. Kill the inactives for lack of a better option. (I would like to think that this reflects well upon Bone, since inactives are a smokescreen for traitors, especially since there is probably an inactive traitor) 5. Not many targets. 6. Given the existing targets, rather kill a sleeping person than a napping person. 7. Kill is strange, lost Spy. 8. Busy. Philico rings alarm bells. 9. Implications are strange things, not to be trusted. 10. Still busy. 11. Wants explanations from Elkanah for being a hypocrite. (Elkanah Bone antagonism. Could be arranged.) 12. Still thinks Elkanah is strange, would be fine with Midnight lynch. (Since 13. Will stick with vote on Elkanah. 14. Thoroughly confused. 15. Sus of Midnight. Trapper on Philico, Light, Winthrop. 16. Votes Midnight for the tie. (Notably, Light takes advantage of it and votes Windrunner, which increases my suspicion on Light slightly.) 17. Thinks less of Light. 18. Understands explanation, but still finds it odd. Conclusion: There's not much here. Given that there is probably an inactive traitor, their willingness to kill inactives is nice, though since that was from the beginning, that is not particularly telling. In addition, they expressed suspicion of Midnight and voted on them. They could be a traitor, but I would prioritise killing Light and the inactives over them.
CadCom he/him Posted October 11, 2020 Posted October 11, 2020 straw. I think I got a fair enough of Straws reasoning regarding the nightmaw kill. I dont agree with it,but it desnt seem like an elim move or thought from Straw. I dont have a whole lot of time right now, so I'm going to go ahead and start a contribution crusade on Mint for now. I'll try to see later if I can determine which of the most inactives would have most likely been elkanah teammate.
Straw he/him Posted October 11, 2020 Posted October 11, 2020 So, I just went through Elkanh's posts, and here's what I found for reads: Mild Village: Illwei Mild Elim: Straw and Windrunner Elim: Matrim, Jester, and Ashbringer I think there's a decent possibility here that all of his reads were just village. I think Matrim is cleared from this, and probably Ashbringer and Windrunner as well. Looking at Elkanah's final post, I think this pretty much confirms that he was just making up stuff to mess us up there. He has several swings from his previous reads, such as putting me and Windrunner as village. turtle's posts are less helpful, with the only real reads being him reading Matrim as elim and then village. I think this further confirms Matrim as a villager. Looking through the remaining players, my target pool is definitely Kings_way, Gears, and Frozen Mint. Out of the inactives, I guess my vote would go to Kings_way, since he has one kind of suspicious post vs Mint's entirely NAI post.
Experience he/him Posted October 11, 2020 Author Posted October 11, 2020 Rollover is going to be pushed back to Monday, October 12th, at 6:00 AM PST for IRL reasons. 1
Ashbringer he/him Posted October 12, 2020 Posted October 12, 2020 (edited) So... I don't know about you guys, but I don't plan to be awake at 6:00 AM PST, so... I'll look at voting now. Learning if there's an Elim within the inactives would be nice, but I'm a little loathe to vote Mint as part of a Contribution Crusade when in all likelihood I won't be active enough to change it... although I'm not sure what they could say at this point. I find it rather interesting the only one who's proposed a non-Straw lynch is Cadcom (and Straw, but that... doesn't count). That doesn't make me feel good about Straw's lynch... but there's so much inactivity it's not terribly surprising, and it fits a Straw+(Inactive) team. And he'll give a lot of info if he flips. So... I don't know. We're not in hammer territory yet, but one mislynch and we likely will be. I'll check back in an hour or two (and probably vote Straw if no one shows up), but I'd like to hear from some people. Edit: Well... Straw it is. Edited October 12, 2020 by Ashbringer
Experience he/him Posted October 12, 2020 Author Posted October 12, 2020 Writeup to be added Straw was Lynched! He was a Trapper! Matrim's Dice was Killed! He was a Trapper! Vote Count: Straw (4): Ashbringer, Gears, Matrim's Dice, CadCom Gears (1): Straw The Turn will end in just under 40 hours on Tuesday, October 13th, at 9:00 PM PST Player List: Spoiler 1) Lord Silberfarben: @Lord_Silberfarben: Trapper. 2) First of the Bone: @Ashbringer 3) @Elkanah: Traitorous Trapper with a Messenger Aviar. 4) 2nd of the Twilight: @Kings_way 5) Pi of the Book: @Shard of Reading: Trapper. 6) Fourth of the Dark: @Gears 7) Philico: @Matrim's Dice: Trapper 8) Second of the Dawn: @Ghanderflaffle: Trapper with Spy Aviar. 9) Third of the Midnight: @Vapor: Trapper with Hidden Aviar. 10) Ninth of the Sky: @JesterLavorre: Trapper with Hidden Aviar. 11) 295864685th of the midnight: @The Windrunner Supreme 12) First of the Clouds: @turtle: Traitorous Trapper with an Aviar Spy. 13) First of the Light: @Straw: Trapper 14) Mint: @Frozen Mint 15) First of the Person: @CadCom 16) Twisp Winthrop: @Illwei: Trapper with an Aviar Trapper.
Gears Posted October 12, 2020 Posted October 12, 2020 @Experience, oh great Patji, how long may a trapper lie sleeping before you strike them down for their arrogance? In addition, does sneaking about in the night appease your wrath? [Basically, what is the inactivity filter, and does submitting actions avert this filter?] It seems that my tunnelling problem has led me astray. Unless an "inactive" traitor has been killing in the night (hence my question to Patji), at least one of us active individuals must be a traitor. I mildly trust Midnight and Person at this time, but Bone has not done anything to particularly distinguish themself. I I understand that they have been busy, but given that I trust the rest of our number, a lack of trust is as damning as active suspicion. I would be amenable to lynching an inactive, but six people remain alive, two of which are inactive. There are 1 or 2 traitors remaining. We are at 4/2 or 5/1. The traitor kills every night. Scenario 1aa: We lynch an inactive, who turns out to be a trapper. The traitors kill, 2/2, it will come down to random chance with interference from an active traitor. Scenario 1ab: We lynch an inactive who turns out to be a trapper. The traitors kill, 3/1, one mislynch away from random chance with interference from an active traitor. Scenario 1ba: We lynch an inactive, who turns out to be a traitor. The traitors kill, 3/1, one mislynch away from random chance with interference from an active traitor. Scenario 1bb: We lynch an inactive, who turns out to be a traitor. The traitors kill, 2/0, we win. Scenario 2aa: We lynch an active person, who turns out to be a trapper. The traitors kill, 2/2, it will come down to random chance. Scenario 2ab: We lynch an active person, who turns out to be a trapper. The traitors kill, 3/1, one mislynch away from random chance. Scenario 2ba: We lynch an active person, who turns out to be a traitor. The traitors kill, 3/1, no more active traitor to interfere in our lynch, no more traitor kill. Scenario 2bb: We lynch an active person, who turns out to be a traitor. The traitors kill, 2/0, we win. If we lynch Bone, it will be slightly better than lynching a sleeping person because we could possibly prevent the traitor kill, depending on how active the inactive elims are. However, I would not be especially opposed to lynching an inactive. What is the general populace's thoughts on this?
Ashbringer he/him Posted October 12, 2020 Posted October 12, 2020 As much as I'd rather not lynch myself... I don't think gambling on lynching an inactive is a smart play here. We whiff, we lose, and there's obviously someone still using kills. Although that could be a Silber-like strat where they're inactive in thread but not in actions. Also, didn't CadCom move his vote to someone? I think Mint? Not that it matters for the end result but it's a point to be made.
Gears Posted October 12, 2020 Posted October 12, 2020 19 minutes ago, Ashbringer said: Also, didn't CadCom move his vote to someone? I think Mint? Not that it matters for the end result but it's a point to be made. Person did indeed move their vote to Mint as can be found in the minutes. Mint has only spoken a few times, and those seem entirely non-alignment indicative. Twilight voted for Midnight. Interestingly enough, Person and Twilight seem to be associated. They both voted Midnight earlier, and Person was willing to Contribution Crusade Mint specifically, not Twilight. I could see a Person/Twilight team, but I could also see Bone with any of the inactives. If there are two traitors, one active, and we mislynch an active player, we lose. I would like @Ashbringer and @CadCom to make their cases. Prove your innocence. Claim your Aviar, if you wish. Recount private conversations. Anything to help your case. Prove you aren't a killer.
Ashbringer he/him Posted October 12, 2020 Posted October 12, 2020 Nobody's PM'd me anything, unfortunately. Or fortunately, seeing as the only Messenger we've found was an Elim. As for activity... not much I can say. I've had exams this week along with a huge amount of homework, so I haven't been on for most of the rollovers, and a good portion of my SE - oriented brainpower is headed towards the LG. @The Windrunner Supreme, anything to say?
Experience he/him Posted October 12, 2020 Author Posted October 12, 2020 There is no inactivity filter. Probably should have made that earlier. 1
Gears Posted October 13, 2020 Posted October 13, 2020 Information has not been especially forthcoming. I must ask @Ashbringer and @CadCom to tell me everything they know so I will not lynch them. Your Aviar, actions, experience level, private conversations, any knowledge at all that I would not be privy to. In addition, this same offer extends to @The Windrunner Supreme, though I trust them slightly more than the rest of these people. Everything you know that I wouldn't. In exchange for forthrightness, I will be forthright as well. Your honesty can save your life. Your secrecy may lose it. I only hope you make the right decision.
The Windrunner Supreme he/him Posted October 13, 2020 Posted October 13, 2020 3 hours ago, Ashbringer said: @The Windrunner Supreme, anything to say? Hello. I was not on at all on Sunday and most of Saturday, so a lot has happened since I last posted. Why did Cadcom suddenly change his vote to Mint? I understand why you would vote on Mint, because Mint has been inactive basically this whole game, but why all of a sudden? I would like an explanation. Also, I think that Gears is elim. He did not vote on Elk(elim), he voted on me(village) and he voted on Straw(village). Can you explain yourself @Gears?
Gears Posted October 13, 2020 Posted October 13, 2020 9 minutes ago, The Windrunner Supreme said: Can you explain yourself @Gears? Alas, I am prone to sympathising with the workload of others. I shall rectify this in the future by slaughtering all sleeping people mercilessly. In addition, I have been suspicious of Light for a long time. However, while you're here, I would like you to tell me everything I wouldn't know. Your Aviar, your night actions, your experience, your private conversations, everything. @Ashbringer, @CadCom, regale me with your information.
Ashbringer he/him Posted October 13, 2020 Posted October 13, 2020 I have a Hidden Aviar, which now that the Nightmaw's gone doesn't accomplish anything (and also means I have no experience level because I can't visit people). Other than that I have no intel, no PMs, just a general suspicion of everyone. I can probably do reads tomorrow or tonight, but not right now. Lynch candidates are any of us; Gears, Ash, Windrunner, CadCom, Frozen Mint, and KingsWay. @Frozen Mint and @Kings_way are inactive, and while I suspect one of them is an Elim I highly doubt it's both, so I'd rather not lynch one at lylo. Gears is trying to get as much info as possible, Windrunner is new and has a very direct suspicion list, I'm me, and CadCom has been... semi inactive but here each cycle, and would rather lynch an inactive.
The Windrunner Supreme he/him Posted October 13, 2020 Posted October 13, 2020 20 minutes ago, Gears said: Information has not been especially forthcoming. I must ask @Ashbringer and @CadCom to tell me everything they know so I will not lynch them. Your Aviar, actions, experience level, private conversations, any knowledge at all that I would not be privy to. In addition, this same offer extends to @The Windrunner Supreme, though I trust them slightly more than the rest of these people. Everything you know that I wouldn't. In exchange for forthrightness, I will be forthright as well. Your honesty can save your life. Your secrecy may lose it. I only hope you make the right decision. I have no aviar, no pms and no experience level. I am just a normal villager with no powers
CadCom he/him Posted October 13, 2020 Posted October 13, 2020 19 hours ago, Gears said: I would like @Ashbringer and @CadCom to make their cases. Prove your innocence. Claim your Aviar, if you wish. Recount private conversations. Anything to help your case. Prove you aren't a killer. Uh... Hi. I thought the cycle was moved to close at 6:00 PM, not 6:00 AM, so I'm fairly surprised to see we're on a new cycle. I don't really know how to prove my innocence, but I don't have an Aviar, so I haven't been able to submit any actions. I haven't had any private conversations. I'm just kinda floating in the game right now. Also, yes, I did move my vote from Straw to mint. 22 hours ago, Gears said: Scenario 1aa: We lynch an inactive, who turns out to be a trapper. The traitors kill, 2/2, it will come down to random chance with interference from an active traitor. ...... Scenario 2aa: We lynch an active person, who turns out to be a trapper. The traitors kill, 2/2, it will come down to random chance. If we lynch Bone, it will be slightly better than lynching a sleeping person because we could possibly prevent the traitor kill, depending on how active the inactive elims are. However, I would not be especially opposed to lynching an inactive. What is the general populace's thoughts on this? In the 4-2 situation, where we lynch a trapper, don't we lose? once it's even numbers, isn't it game over? Or am I misunderstanding the rules. So let's see, we've got @Ashbringer, @Kings_way, @Gears, @The Windrunner Supreme, @Frozen Mint, and @CadCom still alive, according to the list above. Of these people, I would say Gears is most active, followed by either me or Ash, then windrunner, and with Kings_way and Mint being least active. would we all agree with that order or activity? From my perspective, if we assume one active elim, and one inactive elim, I agree it's better to get rid of the active eliminator first. (I know, it's opposite my stance from last cycle, but the situation has changed, now we're essentially at lylo, and last cycle we weren't) Assuming one active elim, (which I believe to be the most likely), I would say it is among Gears, Ashbringer, and Windrunner. I'm not entirely certain about gears, because I've been reading you as neutral all game, which is a dangerous read. Ive been reading ashbringer and windrunner as mild elim to mild village, kindof on an oscillating cycle. (when I read one one way, I read the other the other) But right now, I'm following my gut, and I'm gonna start the votes on Windrunner. This may change if I have time while at work to review their posts, and look into gear's posts as well.
Gears Posted October 13, 2020 Posted October 13, 2020 (edited) 13 hours ago, Ashbringer said: I have a Hidden Aviar, which now that the Nightmaw's gone doesn't accomplish anything (and also means I have no experience level because I can't visit people). Other than that I have no intel, no PMs, just a general suspicion of everyone. I can probably do reads tomorrow or tonight, but not right now. 13 hours ago, The Windrunner Supreme said: I have no aviar, no pms and no experience level. I am just a normal villager with no powers 1 hour ago, CadCom said: Uh... Hi. I thought the cycle was moved to close at 6:00 PM, not 6:00 AM, so I'm fairly surprised to see we're on a new cycle. I don't really know how to prove my innocence, but I don't have an Aviar, so I haven't been able to submit any actions. I haven't had any private conversations. I'm just kinda floating in the game right now. I thank you for your honesty, my fellow trappers. I myself have an Aviar Spy, which I have used very sparingly due to my Novice experience. However, I do know that my bird saw that Bone has a Hidden Aviar. Perhaps they actually have a Good-Looking Aviar, and my bird saw wrong as it tends to do. I was hoping to catch Bone in a lie. No one has spoken to me in private, sadly. I think that we must consolidate our opinions. Midnight was mildly cleared for being a lynch candidate with Cloud, but other than that, there was nothing. However, if Midnight was an elim, surely they would want the Aviar Spy to survive if they genuinely do have nothing, so I think I should release them from the pool of suspicion. I mildly trust Person for their lynch of Elkanah, but that might be a bus to gain trust. I have been reading Bone as null for this entire meeting. I shall return with analysis of everyone later, but for now, I would be supportive of a Midnight or Bone lynch, with preference towards Bone. Rereading the minutes, Person asked about experience levels, which is a question that could be answered by a traitor team, so I would not particularly like to lynch them. 1 hour ago, CadCom said: In the 4-2 situation, where we lynch a trapper, don't we lose? once it's even numbers, isn't it game over? Or am I misunderstanding the rules. Yes, I misremembered. My apologies. Edited October 13, 2020 by Gears
Ashbringer he/him Posted October 14, 2020 Posted October 14, 2020 Er... @Kings_way, @Gears, @The Windrunner Supreme, @Frozen Mint, @CadCom: cycle ends in 2 hours and we've got one vote on the board.
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