Illwei Posted October 10, 2020 Posted October 10, 2020 (edited) 2 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: Well, you didn't vote Elk either... Since no one else is getting on, Wanna tie it? :P. Also if no one posted by 6 I was about to try and claim Elim and see if that generated activity but I guess I won't have to now. Edited October 10, 2020 by Illwei
Mat he/him Posted October 10, 2020 Posted October 10, 2020 Just now, Illwei said: Since no one else is getting on, Wanna tie it? :P. Also if no one posted by 6 I was about to try and claim Elim and see if that generated activity but I guess I won't have to now. Not really, though next cycle I might vote Windrunner depending on turtle's flip.
Ashbringer he/him Posted October 10, 2020 Posted October 10, 2020 I can tie it for Windrunner. Although knowing my luck with ties...
Straw he/him Posted October 10, 2020 Posted October 10, 2020 I just lost my whole analysis post. Hating the Shard editor ATM . Here's my attempt at a summary: Village: Matrim and Illwei for pushing Elkanah and being villagery. Mild Village: CadCom and Ashbringer for pushing Elkanah. CadCom has been more villagery than Ash, but I think his focus on Elkanah was odd. Null: @Frozen Mint and @Kings_way for inactivity. turtle due to lack of AI posts. Mild Elim: Windrunner for tons of tunneling on Matrim and not reconsidering before today, also for odd behavior in general. Elim: Gears because he gives bad vibes in general and because of their weird focus on me and Matrim. Not seeing reasoning for turtle push. Please explain if you have the time. Will vote on Gears for now.
Illwei Posted October 10, 2020 Posted October 10, 2020 Okay no one wants to vote on windrunner with me and i also dont see turtle so im going to follow straw onto gears
CadCom he/him Posted October 10, 2020 Posted October 10, 2020 Ok. Not sure if I counted right but I got Turtle (3) Windrunner (2) Gears (1) I've had 2 large assignments and a midterm exam due over the last few days, so my analysis will be very short so I can get back to my article analysis. So I'm most suspicious of these three, and straw. Next on the list would probably be the inactives? I didnt like turtles votes and comments from my quick reread of last cycle, but I think windrunners comments felt more off. Since I'd be fine with either being, for now I'll go with windrunner . I'll try to get on one more time close to rollover. If I feel its needed, I'll change my vote to turtle. Sorry I cant do more now. Hopefully next cycle will be better.
Illwei Posted October 10, 2020 Posted October 10, 2020 (edited) Wait wait i didnt see ashs vote on windrunner But okay i dont know. Im feeling a lot less confident on windrunner, and i havent been feeling good about gears. Knowing he chose to rp before though changes things....tbh im not sure abiut what im getting from straw Edited October 10, 2020 by Illwei
Straw he/him Posted October 10, 2020 Posted October 10, 2020 5 minutes ago, Illwei said: Wait wait i didnt see ashs vote on windrunner But okay i dont know. Im feeling a lot less confident on windrunner, and i havent been feeling good about gears. Knowing he chose to rp before though changes things....tbh im not sure abiut what im getting from straw My main complaint about Gears is it seems like he’s been very focused on me and Matrim. It feels like a way for him to manufacture analysis. Also, it felt like he was trying to set up for a vote on us before this cycle.
Straw he/him Posted October 10, 2020 Posted October 10, 2020 Sorry for the double post, but doesn’t look like a Gears vote is going to happen. I think Windrunner is the more suspicious candidate.
Illwei Posted October 10, 2020 Posted October 10, 2020 (edited) I don't like that. gears Turtle Edited October 10, 2020 by Illwei
Experience he/him Posted October 10, 2020 Author Posted October 10, 2020 Writeup to be added. Turtle was Lynched! They were a Traitorous Trapper with an Aviar Spy! Illwei was killed! They were a Trapper with an Aviar Trapper! The Nightmaw was released! Vote Count: Turtle (4): Gears, Matrim's Dice, The Windrunner Supreme, Illwei The Windrunner Supreme (3): Ashbringer, Straw, CadCom The turn will end in just under 48 hours on Sunday, October 11th, at 9:00 PM PST Player List: Spoiler 1) Lord Silberfarben: @Lord_Silberfarben: Trapper. 2) First of the Bone: @Ashbringer 3) @Elkanah: Traitorous Trapper with a Messenger Aviar. 4) 2nd of the Twilight: @Kings_way 5) Pi of the Book: @Shard of Reading: Trapper. 6) Fourth of the Dark: @Gears 7) Philico: @Matrim's Dice 8) Second of the Dawn: @Ghanderflaffle: Trapper with Spy Aviar. 9) Third of the Midnight: @Vapor: Trapper with Hidden Aviar. 10) Ninth of the Sky: @JesterLavorre: Trapper with Hidden Aviar. 11) 295864685th of the midnight: @The Windrunner Supreme 12) First of the Clouds: @turtle: Traitorous Trapper with an Aviar Spy. 13) First of the Light: @Straw 14) Mint: @Frozen Mint 15) First of the Person: @CadCom 16) Twisp Winthrop: @Illwei: Trapper with an Aviar Trapper. 1
Straw he/him Posted October 10, 2020 Posted October 10, 2020 Huh, I was not expecting that. Also, looks like there’s an elim in the inactives, given that the Nightmaw was just released.
CadCom he/him Posted October 10, 2020 Posted October 10, 2020 (edited) Nice! Well played Illwei! So I think that makes me, ash and Straw most suspicious. And I think it clears (somewhat) windrunner. For now I'm going to start with a vote on Straw That might change, but I'd still like to hear more from straw. Since I dont understand how the fact that the nightmaw was just released means theres an elim in the inactives? And now, sleeping time. Edited October 11, 2020 by CadCom Fixed color formatting
Mat he/him Posted October 10, 2020 Posted October 10, 2020 Huh how bout that. Maybe I can actually play this game normal xD Farewell, Illwei. You did well. I was about to follow CadCom's vote until I realized that he also voted on Windrunner... I'm gonna go back and reread through last cycle. That probably will result in a Straw vote, but we'll see.
Gears Posted October 10, 2020 Posted October 10, 2020 I do not understand why Light thinks the release of the nightmaw implies a sleeping traitor. If anything, it would imply the opposite. A traitor under suspicion would want to get the general populace to waste days killing useless people. I released Light from my suspicions, but I am reconsidering that. I trust Philico and mildly accept Midnight, but I have no particular read on anyone else. I shall vote Light (Straw) and if there is no murder in the night, we can begin to slaughter the sleeping people. Person is an individual of note as well, but to a lesser degree. When I have access to modern technology, I shall analyse their statements.
Straw he/him Posted October 10, 2020 Posted October 10, 2020 33 minutes ago, Gears said: I do not understand why Light thinks the release of the nightmaw implies a sleeping traitor. It implies an inactive traitor since there was no kill last cycle. The only reasons there would not be a kill are: Nightmaw attacks Hidden player No kill submission due to inactivity No kill due to an elim trying to fake inactivity I think that the second option is most likely, as the third option doesn't benefit the elims very much. It is very suspicious to me that both Frozen Mint and Kings_way have been on the Shard recently, but have still refused to post. If they really are village, I don't see much reason for them not to at least post something. I'd also like to call further attention to Gears' extreme focus on Matrim and me. I find it incredibly odd that they only have reads on Matrim, Windrunner, and me this far into the game. I'd appreciate if they could give some reads on literally anyone else.
Mat he/him Posted October 10, 2020 Posted October 10, 2020 10 minutes ago, Straw said: It implies an inactive traitor since there was no kill last cycle. The only reasons there would not be a kill are: Nightmaw attacks Hidden player No kill submission due to inactivity No kill due to an elim trying to fake inactivity First option didn't happen, as it was just released. The second is possible but there was just a kill with the Nightmaw. The third, I disagree there's nothing to gain from it. I agree Mint or Kings is an elim. I just think you're the other one. Straw. Here's what the elims, specifically you in this situation, gain from faking inactivity: You were the only active elim (Elk was about to die; turtle was only sorta active; Kings/Mint fully inactive) And decided to not submit a kill, framing an inactive elim team. Your vote on Elk establishes you as trusted, so you can bring up this possibility without being suspected for it. You do, and we go for it, taking down one or two inactive villagers. The distribution right now is either 6-2 or 7-1, the first with 4 starting elims (like Elk and you have suggested) and the second with 3. In the first scenario, you and an inactive player are the remaining elims. You push for that, we eliminate both, and you gain yet more village cred for taking down one. In the second scenario, in which you are the only surviving elim, we take out both inactive villagers and you can write it off as a failed contribution crusade and further 'help' us solve the game. Gears asked what the purpose of the elims 'overguessing' the number of elims was, it could be to set up this scenario. Keep in mind all of that is assuming Straw and Elk planned to fake inactivity for those purposes. 24 minutes ago, Straw said: I'd also like to call further attention to Gears' extreme focus on Matrim and me. I find it incredibly odd that they only have reads on Matrim, Windrunner, and me this far into the game. I'd appreciate if they could give some reads on literally anyone else. Well, it's not like there are a whole lot of active players... and he voted turtle.
Straw he/him Posted October 10, 2020 Posted October 10, 2020 57 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: Well, it's not like there are a whole lot of active players... and he voted turtle. The issue isn't that Gears won't vote for other people, it's that he only discusses me and you. If you look through his posts, the only thing he said about turtle before dropping a vote on them was that they were more likely to be village due to them asking a question in the thread. Just look through his posts: #1: Mechanics analysis. No reads. #2: More mechanics. No reads. #3: Benefits of killing people. No reads. #4: More on benefits of killing people. No reads. #5: Looks at everyone's posts but lists almost everything as null. Reads on me and Reading. #6: Discusses events of last cycle. Reads on me and Matrim, but "notes" Ash. #7: Asks Jester to share thoughts and talks about my reads. Reads on me (also has "reads" on Windrunner and Jester, but they're just null reads). #8: Mentions suspicion of me and Matrim, thinks at least one of us is an elim. Reads on me and Matrim. #9: Continues to discuss suspicion of me and Matrim, reiterates that at least one of us is an elim. Reads on me and Matrim. #10: Releases me from suspicion, still finds Matrim suspicious, finds Illwei suspicious for OMGUS reasons, mentions tendency to tunnel. Reads on me, Matrim, and Illwei. #11: Mentions continued suspicion of Matrim, thinks Elkanah should be left alive for one more cycle, mentions tendency to tunnel. Reads on matrim. #12: Analyzes Elkanah's posts and concludes that me or Matrim are elims. Thinks that Matrim is more likely to be village. Thinks that Ash and Illwei could be anything due to "paranoia". Reads on me and Matrim. #13: Looks at all my posts and reevaluates suspicion. Votes on turtle. Reads on me (vote on turtle is also kind of a read, but isn't explained). #14: Trusts Matrim, distrusts me, mildly trusts Windrunner. Reads on me, Matrim, and Windrunner. I think that Gears is highly suspicious if you just look at his posts. Some common themes that show up in his posts: Reads on me and Matrim, but almost no one else. He might throw something else quickly, but nothing compared to his focus on me and Matrim. Repeated assurances that there is one elim in me and Matrim. Switches suspicions between me and Matrim frequently. Repeatedly mentions his paranoia and tendency to tunnel. All in all, I strongly feel like Gears has been trying to avoid giving reads on his teammates, and has been trying to set up misvotes on me and Matrim. I think that his plan was most likely to get one successful vote on me or Matrim, and then when they flipped village, lead a vote train on the other person. Gears' repeated suspicion of Matrim and me could be used as justification for his first and second vote, and he could shore up the second vote with his past statements that one of us is an elim. Afterwards, he could attempt to defend himself by saying that he was just tunneling. Also, I think it's worth noting that Illwei was suspicious of Gears, and I think he may have been killed due to that. I would also like some more explanation for the votes on me. So far there has been very little.
The Windrunner Supreme he/him Posted October 10, 2020 Posted October 10, 2020 1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said: I agree Mint or Kings is an elim. I just think you're the other one. Straw. I would have to agree with that. I went through and Mint has only posted twice. 15 minutes ago, Straw said: I would also like some more explanation for the votes on me. So far there has been very little. You were one of the people to vote on me, and I am village, so it is very suspicious.
Mat he/him Posted October 10, 2020 Posted October 10, 2020 35 minutes ago, Straw said: The issue isn't that Gears won't vote for other people, it's that he only discusses me and you. If you look through his posts, the only thing he said about turtle before dropping a vote on them was that they were more likely to be village due to them asking a question in the thread. Just look through his posts: When I said he voted turtle I meant that turtle flipped elim, so it would have had to be a bus. Those are more likely to be early game, which is why I see elim!you bussing Elk more that I can see elim!Gears bussing turtle. It would have been pretty easy for Gears not to have voted turtle and gotten away with it, because as you mentioned, he hasn't shared much about anyone really so choosing Windrunner over turtle would have been easy. 38 minutes ago, Straw said: Also, I think it's worth noting that Illwei was suspicious of Gears, and I think he may have been killed due to that. This is actually a good point, though there is just the obvious reason that Illwei died because he was a generally well-trusted villager that was not gonna get lynched. 39 minutes ago, Straw said: I would also like some more explanation for the votes on me. So far there has been very little. I redirect you to this: Spoiler 2 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said: First option didn't happen, as it was just released. The second is possible but there was just a kill with the Nightmaw. The third, I disagree there's nothing to gain from it. I agree Mint or Kings is an elim. I just think you're the other one. Straw. Here's what the elims, specifically you in this situation, gain from faking inactivity: You were the only active elim (Elk was about to die; turtle was only sorta active; Kings/Mint fully inactive) And decided to not submit a kill, framing an inactive elim team. Your vote on Elk establishes you as trusted, so you can bring up this possibility without being suspected for it. You do, and we go for it, taking down one or two inactive villagers. The distribution right now is either 6-2 or 7-1, the first with 4 starting elims (like Elk and you have suggested) and the second with 3. In the first scenario, you and an inactive player are the remaining elims. You push for that, we eliminate both, and you gain yet more village cred for taking down one. In the second scenario, in which you are the only surviving elim, we take out both inactive villagers and you can write it off as a failed contribution crusade and further 'help' us solve the game. Gears asked what the purpose of the elims 'overguessing' the number of elims was, it could be to set up this scenario. Keep in mind all of that is assuming Straw and Elk planned to fake inactivity for those purposes. A lot of theorizing there, but I also disagree with a lot of your reasoning on Gears and am planning on reading previous cycles. I really am... Example disagree: 42 minutes ago, Straw said: Switches suspicions between me and Matrim frequently. I assume this is said in a negative light. I think this actually is a more village sign, as an elim would be more likely to pick a 'suspicion' and stay with it for longer.
Straw he/him Posted October 10, 2020 Posted October 10, 2020 39 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: When I said he voted turtle I meant that turtle flipped elim, so it would have had to be a bus. Those are more likely to be early game, which is why I see elim!you bussing Elk more that I can see elim!Gears bussing turtle. It would have been pretty easy for Gears not to have voted turtle and gotten away with it, because as you mentioned, he hasn't shared much about anyone really so choosing Windrunner over turtle would have been easy. This is actually a good point, though there is just the obvious reason that Illwei died because he was a generally well-trusted villager that was not gonna get lynched. I redirect you to this: Reveal hidden contents A lot of theorizing there, but I also disagree with a lot of your reasoning on Gears and am planning on reading previous cycles. I really am... Example disagree: I assume this is said in a negative light. I think this actually is a more village sign, as an elim would be more likely to pick a 'suspicion' and stay with it for longer. I think Gears was under enough suspicion there that a bus was the best option for him. it'd make sense for him to bus turtle and "clear" himself rather than going for Windrunner and then probably get voted out today. True, but I think there's a decent chance the elims would have gone after an inactive if he wasn't pushing Gears. After all, all their other kills have been on inactives. The issue with your theorizing is that none of it is specific to me. You could substitute other people in and it would make just as much sense. I agree, but in this specific scenario I find it suspicious. My main point was that it seems like Gears was trying to set up a misvote on us, and he'd need to suspect both of us at some point in order to do that effectively. I also think it's suspicious because he only really talked about us. It seems like he was just swinging back and forth arbitrarily so he could look like he had reads that were changing over time.
Mat he/him Posted October 10, 2020 Posted October 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, Straw said: The issue with your theorizing is that none of it is specific to me. You could substitute other people in and it would make just as much sense. It... is specific to you? Because you were pushing inactive elims earlier today?
Straw he/him Posted October 10, 2020 Posted October 10, 2020 12 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: It... is specific to you? Because you were pushing inactive elims earlier today? I said there was an elim in the inactives, which other people have also said. You've said it yourself. I just don't see why me bringing up inactive elims means that I'm an elim. It seems like a very convoluted way to justify your vote. I also don't think the suggestion that the elims are active, but chose not to kill is very likely. They'd be trading off one kill on a person of their choice for the possibility of one or two kills on inactives that the village can get reads from. It just doesn't make sense.
Mat he/him Posted October 10, 2020 Posted October 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, Straw said: I said there was an elim in the inactives, which other people have also said. You've said it yourself. I just don't see why me bringing up inactive elims means that I'm an elim. It seems like a very convoluted way to justify your vote. Yeahhhhhh point taken. I am gonna go through the past cycle to get something else eventually. And I keep saying that. Hmm. I will though.
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