agrabes

I still think you are misinterpreting the gem archive. If you read the excerpts that appear in the OB epigraphs, the gem archive seems to be a diary or journal of various radiants. It does not seem like it's a history book or rule book, etc. It almost looks like an (old style) blog - a diary written that is meant to be read by others or maybe like letters written for a time capsule that they know will be opened at some unknown day in the future. You interpret that quote to mean that the 4th Windrunner Oath literally means that the Windrunner should not want to protect everyone. This just does not make sense in context. https://coppermind.net/wiki/Oathbringer/Epigraphs#Urithiru_Gem_Archive Look at the other phrases recorded in the gems - they're all just personal thoughts and memories. That section about not wanting to protecting people seems a lot like the words a frustrated Windrunner would write down in his diary when he is experiencing the kinds of dilemmas that Kaladin is facing. In the quote, it even says he is told by his spren to record on the gem to help him come to terms with the 4th Oath. It's an emotional phrase - not a literal matter of fact statement.

I think that makes sense as a possible process for immortality but I'm not sure it makes sense in this case. I can't see Ash becoming a Herald at age 10. It seems like the way a person becomes a herald is by embodying some certain characteristic or trait. Also, the key aspects of the job of Herald are to fight in battle and teach people about things like medicine and blacksmithing. It's not really a job fit for a 10 year old. I think she has to be at least an older teen to become a herald. We also know that Taln loved her and only became a Herald because of that love, another reason to believe she wasn't 10 at the time. I think it would be more likely if somehow Jezrien became a Herald or some kind of proto-Herald and Ash only joined later than if she joined as a child. Personally, I think RJ has the most likely answer - the WoB is being taken too literally. Jezrien could have been in his 40s but looked like he was 30 at the time he became a Herald. So he looks the same way he looked when he was age 45, he now looks at age 4045 or whatever his age is. I could get behind her being an adopted daughter too.

Yeah, I think that's fair. I guess the thing I'm trying to point out here is there is a lot more gray to Moash than people like to talk about these days. The fact that we're even having this conversation says there's not a clear cut answer. He went over to the side of evil, but I think he still has some good in him. It may not come out except at the very end of his life like a Darth Vader, but I think it's there. You could argue Jezrien's maybe already had his punishment - thousands of years of insanity and guilt for what he did. @Raphaborn It's fair to say that as a whole Adolin has not done as many bad things as Moash. But, it's also fair to say that Adolin has not been in a position where he was forced to do bad things to survive the way Moash was. Part of the reason I judge Adolin more harshly is because he had better choices. Adolin had the option to trust his father and fight Sadeas honestly, but chose to murder Sadeas. Moash tried to use legal recourse against the king and it failed. He had the option to sit idly by while Elhokar's continued negligence and incompetence caused major harm to society or try to do something about it. He also chose murder which was still wrong, but he didn't really have a good choice available. We started this whole argument because someone said Moash is evil because he killed someone. If killing someone makes you evil, then Adolin is just as evil. You can't justify Adolin's unilateral decision to murder Sadeas. It was wrong. I think both Adolin and Moash are redeemable, but I also think people are WAY too harsh on Moash for what he's done relative to other characters who've committed major crimes for understandable reasons like Adolin and Venli. I'm not going to rehash the Moash/Kaladin fight scene. I think from the text it's clear that Moash did not want to kill Kaladin and tried everything he could think of to stop it from happening. Importantly, he never swung his shard blade at Kaladin. Also, in OB after killing Elhokar he could have easily killed Kaladin while Kaladin was having his mental breakdown, but he chose not to. I think this shows that twisted as it is, Moash still feels love and respect for Kaladin.

That's not totally accurate. In Chapter 87 Moash thinks to himself that he had tried to Kaladin while he is wallowing in his guilt over what he did, but his actions do not show that he attempted to kill Kaladin. I copied the relevant passage (Ch. 84 WoR). Moash punched Kaladin in the chest with the intent of disabling him so that he could spare Kaladin. He even says he did not intend to hit that hard - he's inexperienced with the plate so this is likely sincere. He repeatedly tries to spare Kaladin, but Kaladin keeps getting back up and trying to fight him. Graves tells him he has to do it, but he still hesitates. He draws his shardblade, but never makes an attack. Then, once Kaladin swears his third oath he runs. He doesn't want to kill Kaladin and never (intentionally) tries to strike a killing blow. I'll also point out that Kaladin attacks him first. If Kaladin hadn't sworn his third oath, we don't know if Moash would have been willing or able to actually kill him or not. I personally think not - he was extremely upset over what he'd done and clearly did not want to kill him.

I'm not totally sure what you're trying to say here. I think you're saying Adolin was justified to murder Sadeas because Sadeas was a bad person? I don't personally subscribe to your Ends Justify the Means morality here. Sadeas deserved death, but Adolin still murdered him in a dishonorable way. Elhokar and Jezrien also deserved death or severe punishment. Elhokar had allowed many people to die or be falsely imprisoned through negligence. Jezrien abandoned his oaths, leaving Taln to four thousand years of torture. He essentially committed treason against the entire human race. But, Moash doesn't get to use the excuse that they are guilty - he still killed them. You second part isn't very clear though. Is "the person" you're referencing Moash? Moash wasn't willing to kill his friend. He has not once tried to kill Kaladin. He's wanted to kill people that Kaladin wanted to protect, and he fought Kaladin in the failed assassination attempt but he's never tried to kill Kaladin himself. He intentionally spared Kaladin in that failed assassination attempt and didn't fight him in the battle where he does kill Elhokar. He's also not been motivated by his own position or status, he's been willing to throw that away the entire time. In fact, he did throw away his status by attempting to murder the king. I did forget this, but looking it up in my opinion it only reinforces my argument. Dalinar knew that Sadeas would even try assassination and was willing to take the risk. He would have challenged Sadeas through proper channels. Adolin already knew all this and already knew it was wrong to murder Sadeas. He chose to do it anyway.

That's not true. You're implying that this was a new or different threat from how Sadeas had already acted since WoK. Sadeas was always working to either kill Dalinar or remove him from political power and both Dalinar and Adolin knew this for a long time by the end of WoR. Sadeas did this more than once in the first two books - he worked to undermine him politically and put him in bad positions on the field of battle where he might die. That is fair game in the way the Alethi play power politics. The only thing that changed at the end of WoR was that Sadeas made the mistake of saying this directly to taunt Adolin when they were alone in Urithiru. Sadeas believed that Adolin was too honorable to murder him in cold blood, but he was wrong. Dalinar fully understood this and accepted the risk. Even after being betrayed more than once, Dalinar still hoped he could bring Sadeas around and was willing to match him strength for strength and defeat him fair and square. He also knew that Sadeas respected the Alethi customs enough to not have him assassinated. It was Adolin who decided, on his own, that Dalinar shouldn't take that risk anymore and made the choice to murder Sadeas.

I think being asked by a superior is equivalent to being ordered. Still, you're right that killing Jezrien would be (at best) a war crime. Moash isn't squeaky clean, but in terms of the two people he killed I personally see those killings as less morally wrong than Adolin's murder of Sadeas. Adolin killed a man who said he would remain a bitter political rival of his father. He had plenty of other options to deal with the threat. Sadeas was not going to murder Dalinar, he was going to work to cause him to lose political power, put him in risky battles, etc. Dalinar knew this and was prepared to deal with it. Adolin chose to murder Sadeas because he felt that was the easiest way to deal the the problem. Moash tried to do what he thought was the patriotic duty of removing his nation's incompetent leader. That attempted assassination was probably the most dishonorable thing he did. When that failed, he defected from his nation. He didn't sneak around about it, he didn't play a double agent. He simply changed sides after being continually let down and betrayed by the people who were supposed to be protecting him. A lesser crime than Adolin's murder, in my view. Moash is basically a tragic character and a foil for Kaladin. If he'd been stronger and better, he could have ended up like Kaladin. And conversely, if Kaladin had given in to despair he could have ended up like Moash. Part of why I see Adolin's actions as worse than Moash's actions is because Adolin had the power and resources to solve his problem with Sadeas another way. Moash never had the power or resources to choose his own path. He could choose to live with the injustice done against him and his family in a legal system that failed him or take an action. He was left with two bad choices and the tragic thing is that he chose the wrong one.

But neither Moash nor Adolin were authorized by law to carry out punishment. This was not justice, so it doesn't matter if Elhokar or Sadeas were guilty of a crime. In a court of law, you can't get your crime reduced from murder to manslaughter by proving that your victim was guilty of an unrelated crime. If anything, Adolin's killing of Sadeas was more murder than Moash's killing of Elhokar. Moash acted more honorably than Adolin, despite not even being on the side of Honor. Adolin killed Sadeas in cold blood and without giving him a chance to defend himself or even letting Sadeas know he was going to try anything violent. He also did it on his own - he was not ordered to do it and in fact Dalinar did not approve of his actions. That's murder in my opinion, even if Sadeas was deserving of death it is still murder to kill him in cold blood and outside the legal system. In Moash's case there were significant differences. First, when he killed Elhokar he faced him head on and did it openly. Elhokar at least had a chance to fight or run away and he had Kaladin around to defend him. They were also on opposite sides in a war. This makes his killing of Elhokar more like a battle than a murder. Also, he was ordered to kill both Elhokar and Jezrien making it less his own personal decision. What Moash did was a lot more like manslaughter or maybe some type of war crime.

The Parshendi spies thing wouldn't require any extra knowledge. When humans first saw the Parshendi, they named them "Parshendi" because they looked like the Parshmen. Navani as a Herald is an interesting theory and if it's fun for you keep it for sure. But there's very low chance of it being true, especially with a preview passages released from the RoW Prologue which is in Navani's POV. I don't think Navani is hiding anything. It's just that because she's a secondary character we as readers don't know as much about her past as the characters do and it doesn't come up because it's not relevant to the story. Spoiler below for the summary of the RoW preview reading.

Yeah, this section is from Kaladin's POV. It's pretty much certain that this is Kaladin commenting on the King's vanity - that he had instructed the artists to make his nose look smaller in his portraits. I don't think it evokes Pinocchio at all - it's just referencing that having a large nose is considered less beautiful than having a small or "normal" nose. Kaladin hates the lighteyes and the king most of all as puffed up idiots who use their power to make themselves look good and noble but are actually rotten on the inside.

Interesting thought I had based on the idea that Ishar does not have an associated Unmade: Do we know for sure that the Unmade were created by Odium? Could it be that the Unmade were actually created by Ishar, explaining why he alone of all the Heralds does not have an associated Unmade? This is all total speculation of course. Imagine that prior to becoming Heralds, the 10 chosen candidates were told that they were impure and had bad aspects to their personalities that prevented them from becoming Heralds. Ishar, being the spiritual leader of the Heralds, determines that he can develop a way to remove the impurities. He separates the "bad" parts of the personalities from the other 9 heralds and they become their own spiritual entities. He can only remove so much from himself, maybe slicing away small pieces and adding them in to the others. He is also probably considered the most pure, as the spiritual leader. This works, but has serious side effects and results in all the Heralds having holes in their psyches, making them susceptible to the kind of madness they later get, but the 9 all think that Ishar is the most sane of them due to having less damage to his psyche. The Unmade started as independent spiritual beings with the impure or unworthy traits of the Heralds and were eventually found and brought under Odium's control. This theory wouldn't necessarily explain the power of the Unmade. I'm sure the Heralds, before becoming Heralds, were powerful in their own right but probably not on the scale of the Unmade. Anyway, just an interesting thought that came to mind based around Ishar not having an associated Unmade.

True the Old Magic is significantly different from the High Storms, but that's kind of the point, right? Each is powerful in its own way. You can't do what the highstorms do with the Old Magic, but you also can't do what the Old Magic does with the magic system based around the investiture provided by the High Storms. I understand that the Stormfather is not the direct source of surgebinding - he didn't create it. Instead, he's in charge of supplying the power used for it. So maybe I should have said he is the power source for surgebinding rather than the source. I'm open to your ideas as to why the Sibling can't be what I think it is. No guarantees I'll agree though, haha. Appreciate the work you've put in on this stuff even if it's all a little too tentative for me. I don't think there has to be an intentional conspiracy to hide information for the in world charts of the Radiants to be inaccurate. During the time of the books, it had been approximately 2000 years since the Recreance. The quote below is referencing the in world book "Words of Radiance", which specifically says that no one even within 200 years of the Recreance had actual solid information of the orders and their properties. How could people in the time of the books have any real knowledge? Even that order that (Sigzil??)'s parents belonged to which considered themselves descendants of the Radiants didn't really know much. It's all extrapolation from their knowledge of soulcasting and basically anthropology and archaeological research. That's Sanderson's point - not that there is hidden knowledge to be revealed over time, it's just been a long time in world and there's a gap in historical record. It seems like the Radiants kept their own records in the gem library of Urithiru. Once the Radiants were gone, no one could read their history so it was lost. So the in world information is all educated guesses. Some of it might be right, some might be actually wrong (i.e. theoretically ), some might just be red herrings (i.e. some of those lines of connection might be theories by in world scholars when it turns out there is no actual connection that exists).

I think you're reading a bit too much into Jasnah. While I haven't listened to the livestream you're referencing, nothing you've said would preclude Jasnah from being in Group 2. Saying there are a "couple of Jasnah viewpoints" is a very vague statement. Group 2 being very involved is also very vague. To me, it implies the Group 2 people are doing something very complex and self contained, not that both characters have large numbers of POV chapters. If Group 2 is Jasnah and Shallan, then it could be that Shallan has 80% of the POVs and Jasnah, while still in most Shallan POVs, has only 20% of the Group 2 POVs. That would be similar to how those two have been written up to this point. The WoB [27] does says to expect a moderate amount of Szeth, Eshonai, Adolin, Jasnah, and Navani. That said, up to this point Jasnah and Navani have had very few POVs relative to the other "moderate" characters (if you count Venli/Eshonai together). Other characters who are not on the list at all have had more POVs. That could mean they will play catch up in RoW and/or SA5 (which seems to make sense for Navani at least). Or, it could mean that the "amounts" Sanderson is talking about is more like on screen time and story importance rather than just POVs. The more I think about all this, the more I just think there is only so much we can actually gather from the hints and clues that have been given. Everything's just so vague and could be interpreted so many different ways. I feel like we can lock in one or two characters, but the rest I think are too hard to really call meaningfully. Here's my suggestion that could possibly make your first post more easily digested - In your list of possible characters for each group, use your WOB reference numbers that you reference to come to each decision. It's really tough to understand certain items that are there without diving pretty deep into the discussion. For example you have only Kaladin, Shallan, and Adolin as possible candidates for Group 2 which seems a little restrictive.

One assumption you make is that Adolin will be a POV character in this book. I don't think that's necessarily a given, unless there is a WoB that I've missed. Adolin has had POVs in every book so far, but never more than a handful. It might be that he doesn't get any this time around. Or, the WoB does say we will get a POV from Adolin about Shallan but it doesn't say when. So it's still possible he would be one of the minor POVs in Group 1. I think you're right that Navani must be a major character in Group 1 and probably Kaladin. The Jasnah/Shallan pairing would make a lot of sense for Group 2, imo. This would leave Adolin as either a minor POV in Group 1 or a non-POV character in Group 2.

I think your point about the Stormfather is interesting - I've never felt he was too powerful or too central to the story. The whole recharge/overcharge thing at least as I understand is not a normal power of the Stormfather/Dalinar. It was something that happened once due to unique circumstances. The Nightwatcher seems to be equally powerful in a different way and can do things that the Stormfather can't do. She is the source of the Old Magic, just like the Stormfather is the source of Surgebinding. The Sibling we just know too little about to say, but you have to assume it is just as powerful in its own way. Whether the Sibling is associated with the oaths like that, I'm not so sure. I think it's all circumstantial evidence you've put together. The Stonewards and their personalities being tied to Oaths is an interesting idea. It just feels a bit too loosely connected for my personal preference. You're saying "The Sibling might be associated with Stone", "The Stonewards seem to take Oaths more seriously than other orders," and putting those together to get "The Sibling is associated with the Oaths." I think your individual ideas are good - it's just layering them all together that starts to stretch things for me. I'm not saying it's impossible but it feels like a pretty tenuous thread. My personal thoughts on the Sibling are that it's more of a formless/flavorless mass of investure. What makes me think that is because it's always described so generically - no one says what it was like or what it did. Most people think it is what powered Urithiru and the Stormfather is protective over it. That to me indicates it is childlike and in need of protection. I think the Radiants used it to power Urithiru thinking it was completely unintelligent and just a big "battery" they could use for their own purposes. They trapped it in a fabrial, probably the giant gemstone that Shallan finds. I think this is the abuse that the Radiants did to it. I think around the time of the Recreance, they learned it was at least partially intelligent and self aware and felt bad for what they had done. Not seeing a need to maintain Urithiru because they thought there were not going to be any more desolations, they released it from powering Urithiru and it went to sleep.

So to simplify your theory and make sure I'm following: Bondsmiths are connected to three other orders - Willshapers, Windrunners, and Truthwatchers. Those three orders' associated colors/elements are Stone, Wind, and Pulp. Two of the three Bondsmith spren are generally known, each could reasonably be associated with Wind and Pulp (less so for pulp/Nightwatcher than Wind/Stormfather). If pulp and wind are taken, logically the third should be associated with stone. This makes sense so far. Then, assuming the Sibling is the third Bondsmith Spren, it must be associated with stone. Because it is associated with stone, you argue it should also be associated with the oaths in general. And because it is associated with the oaths, then its slumber is caused by the mass breaking of the oaths. I personally think this is quite a bit of a stretch. I think the biggest evidence against the Sibling being associated with the oaths is that the Stormfather seems much more associated with the oaths. He seems to be the one who watches over the Honorspren and has at least some influence over their oaths. He seems to actively approve or deny oaths saying things like "These words are accepted." At a minimum he does this for Syl, but he may do it for other spren as well. Even if you could say that both the Stormfather and the Sibling are associated with the oaths, this would mean that the Stormfather should have also slumbered when the oaths were broken which did not happen. Aside from that, I think it's also fair to say that it's really tough to link Nightwatcher to pulp/plant matter. She doesn't seem to have any properties related to plants, aside from being associated with Cultivation who is associated with plants. The things she does are not related to plant matter or growing plants. So, if Nightwatcher isn't associated with "pulp" then why should the Sibling be associated with stone? I think the third connection between radiant orders is about personality affinities between typical members of those orders. I seem to remember it being said in the books or in WoB that Windrunners and Lightweavers are naturally suited to work well together. Though, I'll admit I can't find that reference now so it may have just been someone else's theory. Or, it could be that the third line represents links between the essences as believed by the Vorin religion during the time of the books. I think this was referenced in a WoB.

Yeah, it's true he has the life draining limit. But in my opinion that limit is not enough of a limit to justify infinite power. That limit would still allow a random peasant to grab Nightblood and kill Odium, then die 5 seconds later. Sacrificing one life to defeat the ultimate evil is an extremely small price to pay. I have read the Wheel of Time. I don't really see that as a similar situation at all. At a high level, the story of the Wheel of Time is Rand & Company gradually building up their own power so that they can conquer the ultimate evil. They get help along the way from people who are more powerful than themselves at the time, but that help is never up to the challenge of defeating the Dark One and the forces of evil. In the end, it's Rand who defeats the Dark One and reseals him in his prison. They don't have another person from another planet with limitless power come in and suddenly defeat the enemy. I'm not really sure I'm following your LotR example. Sure you could argue that Gandalf should have recognized the Ring's true nature in the Hobbit, but Gandalf didn't have the ability to just teleport himself to Mt. Doom and drop the ring in. If he did, he would have done that when he finally did discover the Ring. He formed the Fellowship of the Ring because he needed support to make the long, hard journey there. So, even if Gandalf had recognized the ring sooner, there still would have had to be a similar effort to destroy it. NIghtblood coming in to save the day makes it feel unsatisfying because his (possible) ability to destroy Odium is not a product of the work of the main characters. Him being the weapon used to defeat Odium feels like a Deus ex Machina. If Nightblood were a magic sword that was created by the Heralds or Honor and Cultivation as the ultimate anti-Odium weapon of legend and the entire story of the front 5 books was an epic quest to find him and training to use him safely, then that might feel satisfying. What actually happens is he just randomly appears one day.

1) I don't doubt that's true. It doesn't mean he still doesn't have practical limitations. That's Sanderson's entire concept of magic - the limitations and weaknesses of magic are more important that the powers. That's what makes his magic systems so great. 2) Because bringing in Nightblood makes the work and struggles of all the Rosharan characters less meaningful. If it really is only Nightblood who can defeat Odium or some other major enemy, then it means nothing any of the Rosharan characters did was meaningful at all. The entire story of SA1-5 could have been replaced with one book where Nightblood arrives and immediately kills Odium. All the training, all the struggles, the pain and suffering could have been avoided if they'd simply stayed home and waited for Nightblood to arrive. If Nightblood can solve every problem, then no one needs to do anything other than rely on him. That's just not interesting, imo.

Yeah, I think it's a fair point to say that the flashback characters have generally appeared in every part of the book. But haven't their flashbacks generally in appeared in every part of the book too? Dalinar's definitely did. It feels like something different than usual is going on here since it's confirmed that the flashbacks don't start until Part 3. There would need to be a reason for that in the overall structure of the book. One possible explanation is that we don't see Venli POVs at all until Part 3, making her a Group 3 character. Another might be that it could reveal secrets that would give away things that need to stay hidden in Parts 1 and 2 of the book. I think it's a little bit of a leap to assume that just because Sanderson gave a reading of her POV during a time he'd said he'd only written Part 1 segments necessarily means that POV segment was actually in Part 1. Wasn't that the first reading he ever did from the book, before he talked about what groups and parts were being written? He may have written that scene, then moved it to another Part of the book later on and figured one scene of Part 2 or 3 didn't really count as having started writing. Or, maybe he wrote that one scene specially for the early preview he gave out of order with the rest of the book. He may have even entirely scrapped that scene. There are always disclaimers on these readings that they don't necessarily represent the final book. I personally think Venli has to be in either Group One or Group Three. My reasoning is that we expect a major plot arc of this book will be Venli converting to the side of the Radiants. If she was in Group Two, her last POV would be in Part 4, before the main climax. So, it would be like she converts to the Radiants and then just gets sidelined for the rest of the book. If she's in Group One - she probably converts early and spends the whole book coming to terms with it. If she's group three, she converts last minute and turns the tide. Anyway, not trying to be overly critical. You've done a lot of work on this and it's a really cool project. Just trying to point out that most of the WoBs we have are not 100% solid information.

I'm with you. Nightblood is the favorite of people who really love the theoretical mechanics of the Cosmere which go far beyond what has been shared in any book or officially published material. Sanderson has provided a lot of information on the theoretical upper limits of the power of Nightblood which makes these people really excited. Nothing wrong with this, people can like whatever they want to like. If it's fun to think about those possible mechanics for you by all means do, it's just not my thing. But like you said, in actual appearances on page Nightblood can't actually achieve his theoretical upper power limits. And think of how lame that would be if it did happen. Kaladin, Shallan, Dalinar, Adolin, Jasnah, your efforts and struggle against Odium were all irrelevant in the end. Just bring in a superpowered semi-sentient sword from another planet and he'll wipe out Odium in one hit! I highly doubt that Sanderson will write it that way. Nightblood will probably play a part, but it'll remain limited. In my view, the less Nightblood the better. My personal expectation is that Szeth will decide the drawbacks of using Nightblood are too great vs. his regular shardblade. He'll keep Nightblood in a safe place to keep him from falling into the wrong hands but not use him in normal combat. He may pull him out once or twice in a moment of dire need, but won't use him continually.

One key assumption you've made that I think is incorrect: the flashbacks count as "POVs". In his chart https://imgur.com/tcE4p4Q from your WOB [1], Sanderson shows the flashbacks as a separate category from the three POV groupings. So, I think you could say that Venli might be in Group 2 and still have her flashbacks appear in Part 3 of the book. She just might not have "present day" POVs in that part. Another point is that from the evidence we have, you could argue that Venli may be group 3. Here's why I think there's a good case for that: Venli is still kind of a villain, and none of the villains have had major POVs up to this point in SA. Her flashbacks don't start until Part 3. This doesn't seem to line up with the style Sanderson has used up to this point if she appears "present day" in Part 1 as a POV, but not as a flashback until Part 3. This didn't happen in any previous SA book. The Part 3 characters appear in Part 1, but don't have POVs. Then, their climax comes at the very end of the book. This could make sense if Venli arrives as a "villain" and makes a challenge in Part 1. It would also make total sense if the climax was the final part of the book - as Venli fully changes sides. Anyway, just some thoughts. I just don't think Venli is a lock for Group 1.

Thanks - good WoB. It generally lines up with what I thought - normally people are promoted/demoted based on service and capabilities most of the time. Some lower ranks can be bought too - which I didn't mention but I don't really see as a contradiction since it seems these lower ranks are below the level of landowners. Rank is not directly tied to land ownership (owning more land doesn't make you higher rank). It almost seems like it's the other way around - you get promoted and as a duty you are given land to take care of. The military conquest side of things isn't confirmed, but could easily fall under the King and High Princes ability to directly raise someone if they so choose. Of course, the other example is following Gavilar and Dalinar's path - if you conquer everyone you can raise yourself to become a king or high prince.

I don't think the ways people can advance are ever spelled out in the books. But that a few things like getting a shardblade or owning land make you "automatically" of a certain rank strongly implies that there is another way that you would get that kind of rank more normally. My guess is promotion by higher nobles based on your accomplishments and influence at court. Or, military conquest - wield enough military power and you can demand you are elevated. That is true that Kaladin is the main one who sees the skirmishes he's involved in as worthless. I don't remember Dalinar seeing those types of battles (skirmishes between Alethi lords) as politically important. Border wars, I do remember Dalinar defining as politically important but it seemed more based on things like military advantage and honor/reputation than wealth. I don't remember that part about Sadeas, but don't really doubt it's there. Sadeas is shown as one of the most intelligent and strategic Alethi lords though, so even if he does recognize it that doesn't necessarily mean they all do. I think you have shown that there are at least some nobles who find at least some value in land and agriculture. I still think it's not valued in the same way it was in real history because of the differences in the real world vs. Roshar, but it's hard to really say for sure.

Right, those things exist for sure. But, the land does not seem to be the source of power or money, it seems to be a way to display power. At least, that's the tone I've picked up from the books. For example, land ownership qualifying for a certain dahn is fine, but you could reach that qualification in other ways too. It's just like having a shard blade also automatically qualifies you for a certain rank as well, but it's not the primary way of getting that rank. The primary way of getting rank seems to be military success and conquest or family ties/inheritance. The land disputes and border wars, because they're always called meaningless, always gave me the feeling of people fighting just to fight rather than truly feeling that land was really valuable. It's also the general attitude of the warlike Alethi - they like to find any excuse to fight. You don't see any of the nobility talking about their wealth coming from owning fields and livestock or other rural economies. They talk about mines, factories, or conquest in battle/hunting chasm fiends. I also think the fact that Sebarial is the only high prince who is even thinking about building up an economy and business as a priority and how he is mocked for it shows you how the nobility of (at least) Alethkar value land and commerce. This is all just my interpretation though - I'm not sure it's fleshed out well enough in the books to really say one way or another. Well, I would argue we don't know that this is a total collapse like the end of the Bronze Age or the Fall of Rome. It could be more similar to the World Wars or the Napoleonic Wars, large scale wars that devastated large parts of the world and completely transformed society but did not collapse all major governments. That's the key distinction in my opinion. If there's still a strong enough central authority and power structure in place after the desolation, then you will not see a breakdown like those other events. I personally predict there will be, but that's just a prediction. I think if you look at the results of the other desolations, things got so bad by the end because they were repeated. I would imagine that after the first desolation ended, it was more similar to a WW1 or Black Death situation - major changes but if you squint you can still recognize what was there before. There was a strong enough government in place before the desolation that something was left afterward and there was enough time to recover that people could rebuild to some extent and adjust to a new order. Once desolations started coming more than once in a hundred years is when I think society started to totally collapse.

That's a fair point that we do have to consider the possibilities that things could play out differently since we do have Cultivation and Odium in the picture. It seems like the fused may not necessarily specifically target libraries, but I'm sure they will still destroy several. It is really hard to say what might happen though. Another good (I think) implied point you have is that population distribution is much different than real world due to the high storms. In the equivalent type of society in earth, the vast majority of the population lived in rural areas working in agriculture. Due to the high storms on Roshar, it seems you don't have people living scattered across the countryside they have to gather up in the fortified cities and towns for protection. It seems like the wealth and power of the nobility is not based on agriculture because it doesn't seem that they value it all that highly or that there is as much of a concept of land ownership. It might be that we just don't see that (or I've forgotten reading about it) in the books and it really is there, but I haven't had the impression of the nobles fighting over land. It seems like there have been raids where people steal or destroy livestock or grain, but no battles to actually change the locations of the borders. I think this is because of the way agriculture works on Roshar. It seems like they can't just plant large fields due to the risks of the high storms. Everyone has to live in the same place for protection, and there's a limit to how far away they can go to actually work the fields. It also seems like Roshar has a relatively low population density due to the harsh conditions. So, the impression I got was that most land is not worked for agriculture and there's not any mention of the most powerful nobles having the greatest lands. The power of the nobility seems to be more tied to military power and reputation, at least for Alethkar. We don't know enough about the other countries to really say. They might be different. I think you're right about everything you're saying, but I'm not sure that your conclusion is right. I think it's something more like World War 1 - the high class families were devastated because their sons were dying at a much higher rate in the war than any previous war. It did take a real toll on the young officers, hitting the higher class families hard. I don't know any numbers, but it it's probably true that a higher percentage of high class families lost family members in the war relative to the lower class families. However, in terms of sheer numbers the lower class soldiers still made up the vast majority of deaths. Each noble or higher class citizen has to do more supervisory work than before, but in most societies it's not like they were working long hours anyway. They can pick up the slack. The lower classes already worked long hours just to survive and have now lost a significant portion of their workforce. To keep up the same production levels, they will need better tools like fabrials. Real history has shown us devastating wars and plagues often lead to more power in the hands of the common people. The only historical example I can think of where the opposite happened was the end of the Roman Empire when feudalism was basically formed. The main reason that happened was because the common people were constantly under attack from raiders and other civilizations looking to steal the wealth of the crumbling Roman Empire, so they paid for protection in the only way they could - by essentially making themselves property of the few ultra rich people who could afford to protect them. The reason that happened is because they needed constant protection and the central government could no longer provide it for them. I don't think we'll see that post desolation because people generally won't need constant protection after the desolation is over. They will also have the order of the knights radiant to help provide protection, assuming it's not destroyed.