Mid-range game 52: Guard Duty

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Likely for Ash, yeah. Clutch though

No, not at all clutch 

Today would be the same in every way if that had not happened.

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Don't forget your orders, guys. @Archer, be nice if you could Two of Pens this

Nah, I don't think we should go through with solidifying this vote.

Xino, I am not sorry that you are getting dropped in the game like this. Evil or good, you have it easy, taking up the reins from Fabien. I won't be willing to hear you out if you have anything to say about the current state of affairs.

And I will do ~nothing~ to try to give us a fighting chance in case Archer is village. I think we have no good reason to vote Xino over Archer, anyway.

Edit: @Lotus, I take it the vote and the NK happen concurrently in the order of actions?

Edited August 8, 2021 by DrakeMarshall

[Kasimir he/him]

@Lotus or @Illwei I have a question. If a Cheater gets unlucky and does get exed while using their ability... Is it written as being pushed off the table or voted off?

I just had a really crack thought.

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

@Lotus or @Illwei I have a question. If a Cheater gets unlucky and does get exed while using their ability... Is it written as being pushed off the table or voted off?

I just had a really crack thought.

The Cheater gets no second chances. If they get caught once, then that's it, they're run out of the game faster than you can say "abuse of authority."

Last I checked, when a Cheater gets caught in the act for the first time, it won't say anything about it in the writeup.

Bad thought, though. That would not have changed things.

[Kasimir he/him]

10 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

The Cheater gets no second chances. If they get caught once, then that's it, they're run out of the game faster than you can say "abuse of authority."

Last I checked, when a Cheater gets caught in the act for the first time, it won't say anything about it in the writeup.

Bad thought, though. That would not have changed things.

It's good though, then we can rule out that possibility. I think it's more probable to get a Shardblade (1/18) than it is to get caught twice (1/10 x 1/10) but I did want to formally close it off for my peace of mind  

[Illwei]

Who needs votecounts I don't need votecounts you guys most definitely don't need votecounts

Xino (3): Kasimir, Archer, DrakeMarshall
Not Voting (1): Xino

[Kasimir he/him]

Ninja-ed by Eiwlil >:(

Well yeah I suppose strictly-speaking we should model it like this:

Let p1 be the base probability of getting 1 card, and p2 be the base probability of getting 2 cards (we exclude One of Spears cases):

Probability of getting a Shardblade
= P(Draw One Card and Shardblade) + P(Draw Two Cards and One Shardblade) + P(Draw Two Cards and Shardblades Both Also You Should Buy A Lottery Ticket I guess)
=p1 x 1/18 + p2 x 1/18 + p2 x 1/18 x 1/18

Could be worse than the Cheater odds actually. Huh. Does exclude the case where the player starts with a Shardblade, though.

This was brought to you by Kas realising you technically can't neglect the base rate  

Edited to add: Literally Ash this game - "Never tell me the odds." 

Edited August 9, 2021 by Kasimir

[Illwei]

41 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Ninja-ed by Eiwlil >:(

:D.

smh if you don't appreciate my votecounts I can just stop tbh smh

Edited August 9, 2021 by Illwei

[Kasimir he/him]

4 minutes ago, Illwei said:

smh if you don't appreciate my votecounts I can just stop tbh smh

Smh Eiwlil is this foreigner racism I sense tbh 

[Illwei]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Smh Eiwlil is this foreigner racism I sense tbh 

always tbh

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

1 hour ago, Illwei said:

smh if you don't appreciate my votecounts I can just stop tbh smh

I hope this game will have a lot more votecounts tbh

[xinoehp512 he/him]

Guess I'll die

[+Lotus she/her]

One hour warning! Also I won’t be on for rollover sooo~

[Kasimir he/him]

6 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

I hope this game will have a lot more votecounts tbh

How to tell Team Village has dropped the ball tbh

Can we disrespect Ash like this though  :eyes:

Edited to add:

15 minutes ago, Lotus said:

One hour warning! Also I won’t be on for rollover sooo~

Possible to clarify what effect this has on last orders? I'd hate to get hammered by an Elim or something because there's no clear understanding of when the cycle is considered closed.

Edited August 9, 2021 by Kasimir

[Archer he/him]

18 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Hey @Archer did you draw that vote manipulation card at the beginning of this cycle?

[I got the Two of Pens card at the start of last cycle.]

17 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Don't forget your orders, guys. @Archer, be nice if you could Two of Pens this

[

No seriously, I'm aware that e!Xino can't vote manip their way past a 3 vote train. So that doesn't worry me too much. e!Drake though could move their vote and force a double kill of myself and Xino, which is probably the best outcome they could hope for. I'm considering cardblocking Drake, just to keep things honest. I don't think I'll commit to any option.]

Edit: I don't intend to post/order past the top of the hour, whether or not the cycle is officially 'closed'. We can just honor system it

Edited August 9, 2021 by Archer

[Kasimir he/him]

8 minutes ago, Archer said:

[I got the Two of Pens card at the start of last cycle.]

[

No seriously, I'm aware that e!Xino can't vote manip their way past a 3 vote train. So that doesn't worry me too much. e!Drake though could move their vote and force a double kill of myself and Xino, which is probably the best outcome they could hope for. I'm considering cardblocking Drake, just to keep things honest. I don't think I'll commit to any option.]

Forgot about that - was thinking of Two of Pens but that just gives them two votes, fair point. >>

This should be interesting, since that's the same dilemma with you, technically.

Edited to add: 

8 minutes ago, Archer said:

Edit: I don't intend to post/order past the top of the hour, whether or not the cycle is officially 'closed'. We can just honor system it

Works for me.

Edited to add 2: @Archer, curious why you still have e!Drake credences. Two Cheaters (admittedly that's his claim) and being the CW point to very likely Village. 

Edited August 9, 2021 by Kasimir

[+Lotus she/her]

Cycle closes in 20 minutes as normal. I will not be on for about a hour after that so rollover will be extra long

[Archer he/him]

6 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Edited to add 2: @Archer, curious why you still have e!Drake credences. Two Cheaters (admittedly that's his claim) and being the CW point to very likely Village. 

[Because I'm keeping my suspicions fluid 

The main thing that cleared Drake was the vote. When I played evil with Araris, he was pretty cool with being bussed. If TUO dipped suddenly, I can see them saying Araris is probably going to die here, and planning accordingly. 

As for the role, based on Lotus' reaction, I think Xino isn't lying about being Honest. (heh.) I think because of that confusion you had about the Cheated card, Drake is really a Cheat. (Could be Lucky and a good liar, but let's assume not.) The main benefit is getting to stockpile vote manip and I think increasing your odds of getting a Shardblade(?). But I haven't been hurting for cards this game, so I'm not sure that given the restrictions on vote manip this game, that it'd be so unbalanced. 

Drake's been off enough this game that I'm keeping the option open. C1 had a bad vote (we're exing Xino for the same vote). When they were under pressure, I disagreed with pretty much everything they said in that one post.

I'm gonna post now because I think this game will be over in ten minutes, and this will probably age like milk]

[Illwei]

CYCLE IS CLOSED YES I AM LATE

[+Lotus she/her]

MR52 Cycle 5: Glowing Gems

The four players sat around the table, eying each other as their eyes darted across the table. The pile of spears had grown larger and larger over the past hour, and now the stakes were high.

Xino, who had recently stepped in to replace a guard who had to leave to go to the bathroom, looked at their cards and sighed. It wasn't worth loosing all of these spears. Theirrds were very poor.

"I fold" they called, and headed out to join the nearby table of spectators

 

---

Fabian/Xino folded! They were a  Honest Knight radiant

---

 

Vote Count:

Spoiler

Xino (3): Kasimir, Archer, DrakeMarshall
Not Voting (1): Xino

Player list: 

Spoiler

 

1. @Matrim's Dice,  Clever Knight radiant

2. @The Unknown Order Cheater Voidbringer

3. @Steeldancer,  Clever Knight radiant

4. @Ashbringer Faleast  Lucky Knight radiant
5. @StrikerEZ Clever Knight radiant

6. @Elandera Lucky Knight radiant

7. @Araris ValerianHonest Voidbringer

8. @Kasimir Karnan, lighteyed swordsman, formerly working for Brightlord Terneas

9. @Archer

10. @DrakeMarshallHonest Jake

11. @Fabien/Xino Jack Oliver Travis Honest Knight radiant

The cycle will end Wednesday at 9:00 PST.

[Kasimir he/him]

Mrw I discover I'm damned to yet another cycle of squatting:

Spoiler

Edit: Sigh. Interesting we're on yet another round. What cards did you play, lads? I'm going to go with Archer for the moment.

Edited August 9, 2021 by Kasimir

[Archer he/him]

23 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Mrw I discover I'm damned to yet another cycle of squatting:

  Hide contents

I figured you'd be happy to have somewhere to play after-  wait, I'm not allowed to talk about that.  

I'm pretty sure if Kas is evil, we are unable to win. And I know I'm a villager, so that leaves Drake as the remaining elim. 

For the record, I cardblocked whatever Drake did. I'll make a proper post on why he's evil sometime today. I imagine we'll all be vote maniping this round so it comes down to who can convince Kas best. Woot

[Kasimir he/him]

24 minutes ago, Archer said:

I figured you'd be happy to have somewhere to play after-  wait, I'm not allowed to talk about that.  

Sometimes, I analyse because it is my duty and the prospect of rest and it being Not My Problem Anymore gives me great joy  

24 minutes ago, Archer said:

For the record, I cardblocked whatever Drake did. I'll make a proper post on why he's evil sometime today. I imagine we'll all be vote maniping this round so it comes down to who can convince Kas best. Woot

I'm interested in your thoughts about Araris's bussing tendencies. You mentioned it last cycle, and that logic would flag you as well, since Araris was trying to draw votes to you.

Edited to add: Alas, we are subjected to another turn of Eiwlil's vote counts. Sadge tbh :eyes:

Edited August 9, 2021 by Kasimir

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

Well, I was right about some things, and wrong about others. I flipped some coins last turn, anyways.

We’ll call it even, ok?

Archer.

I am not waiting on any clarifications from our terrible Game Masters, but for reference my action last cycle was “attack Kasimir” and I no longer have the card in my hand but it says I was roleblocked so... I don’t really want to know what that means. Maybe I drew two cards last cycle, and one of them was the same as the card I just used? Maybe Archer really did cardblock me for some reason? Maybe an eldritch portal in reality ate my card and spat it back out? Find out next time on Rothfuss Elimination!!

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

You thought I didn’t have a shardblade up my sleeve, didn’t you 

I have ALL of the shardblades up my sleeve. All of them.

[Kasimir he/him]

4 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

I am not waiting on any clarifications from our terrible Game Masters, but for reference my action last cycle was “attack Kasimir” and I no longer have the card in my hand but it says I was roleblocked so... I don’t really want to know what that means. Maybe I drew two cards last cycle, and one of them was the same as the card I just used? Maybe Archer really did cardblock me for some reason? Maybe an eldritch portal in reality ate my card and spat it back out? Find out next time on Rothfuss Elimination!!

Can I clarify: do you still have the card? And were you roleblocked?

34 minutes ago, Archer said:

For the record, I cardblocked whatever Drake did. I'll make a proper post on why he's evil sometime today. I imagine we'll all be vote maniping this round so it comes down to who can convince Kas best. Woot

Am I the only player in this game who actually roleblocked xino >>

Anyway, it's interesting. Either way you run this, both of you are claiming to not have put in a kill, and I certainly didn't. A roleblock shouldn't have stopped a kill, and Drake claims he was told he was roleblocked, so this is consistent. It's not going to be resolved like a logic puzzle.

Clearly I'm going to have to rely on the power of the single Singaporean 50 cents coin I consulted when trying to decide if Araris died or Drake died >>