Mid-range game 52: Guard Duty

[Ashbringer he/him]

Well this will be fun.

[+Lotus she/her]

Time! I don't have a vote bot today so might take a bit longer

[+Lotus she/her]

MR52 Cycle 4: Three is a magic number

A argument broke out, people accusing each other of cheating, and then cards were tossed into the air as they began to wrestle, yelling at each other until suddenly the guard captain called out 'Hey! Be civil!'

They picked up their cards and returned to the table, putting their cards down with civility.

But then, as Araris folded, someone knocked hard on the table and sent both Ash and the unknown order tumbling down. "ouch! We fold!" they called and hurried away, not wanting to get in any more fights.

---

Araris was voted off the table! They were a Honest Voidbringer

Ash was pushed off the table! They were a Lucky Knight radiant

The Unknown Order was pushed off the table! They were a Cheater Voidbringer

---

VC:

Spoiler

Araris (3): Kas, Drake, Ash

Drake: (2): Archer, Araris

Player list: 

Spoiler

 

1. @Matrim's Dice,  Clever Knight radiant

2. @The Unknown Order Cheater Voidbringer

3. @Steeldancer,  Clever Knight radiant

4. @Ashbringer Faleast  Lucky Knight radiant
5. @StrikerEZ Clever Knight radiant

6. @Elandera Lucky Knight radiant

7. @Araris ValerianHonest Voidbringer

8. @Kasimir Karnan, lighteyed swordsman, formerly working for Brightlord Terneas

9. @Archer

10. @DrakeMarshallHonest Jake

11. @Fabien Jack Oliver Travis

The cycle will end Monday at 9:00 PST.

Edited August 7, 2021 by Lotus

[Kasimir he/him]

Whoever who shot TUO, nicely done. RIP to Ash. I'm glad I didn't peel off Araris. I feel much better about Drake now. I don't think Elims would try to engineer a tie given my known end-cycle unpredictability and the impact of ties so Drake reads like the convenient CW. Don't know if Archer was distancing or not. I'll have to think this one through.

@Lotus, this is the second cycle of inactivity. What happens to Fabien?

 

[+Lotus she/her]

2 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

@Lotus, this is the second cycle of inactivity. What happens to Fabien?

Currently working on finding a pinch hitter as we speak lol

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

Hey look the game is over.

Tragic.

Cards fell as the wouldn’t, I guess. I am pretty sure the elims didn’t even try to save Araris with a card.

[Kasimir he/him]

@DrakeMarshall, how good's your post analysis? I'm willing to go all-in on you being Village at this point. In this game, where ties kill, and where vote volatility is a thing, I just don't see any Elim team being this willing to make you the counterwagon. Two Cheaters on a three-man Elim team seems a bit strong for me as well, and you were part of the early Araris push, so I am essentially going to just commit to considering you Village.

I'm going to play to my strengths, which is vote analysis. I'm going to highlight Drake in green as he's now my highest Elim confidence. [Edit: Village. Sigh. Drake, you're infecting me with your backwards style .__.]

My main arguments for my being Village is that most Elim teams offered with me being Evil all assumed I was on a two-man team. The game hasn't ended, ergo we are indeed playing against a three-man team. I was the deciding vote on Araris, or one of the Araris voters, and I could have pulled off but ultimately did not. I also kept pushing for TUO late last cycle, potentially staking him out for a Shardblade kill, when I could have just remained quiet and not pushed back against the fact that almost every other player (including myself at certain points in time) had more or less softcleared TUO for D1. I'm also going to come right out and say that I have a One of Guards and a Two of Pens among the cards I've been collecting. Which I'm going to play this cycle is a mystery to the intellectual, but the last Elim has a choice. I intend to secure the train(s) against vote manipulation. They can cardblock me, forgoing the NK. Or they can NK me, forgoing the cardblock, meaning the trains will go through.

It's possible the Elims have a Clever. If so, this would in my view explain why they didn't attack me. They knew I could self-protect. This was also, by the way Drake, why I was so resistant to being tied. I was hoping to force them to waste a NK on me and to block it. Would've taken a bit of clever Lurching, but.

As a result, I'm going to do something I don't normally do, and I'm going to mark myself with the high credence Village on my charts. I usually don't as a courtesy but whatever.

Day One:

Spoiler

Elandera (3): Archer<2>, Mat<3>, Kas<5>
The Unknown Order (2): Mat<2>, Elan, Striker<3>, Kas<4>
Kasimir (2): Drake<1>, Fabien, Drake<3>
Ashbringer (1): Archer<1>, Araris<2>, Kas<3>
Araris (0): Kas<2>, Striker<2>
Archer (0): Mat<1>, Drake<2>
Steel (0): Striker<1>
Striker(0): Araris<1>
Drake (0): Kas<1>, TUO<1>

I think we can more or less say peripherality was true. I maintain that Evil Kas had better strategies than to go on TUO only to terbalik [=reverse course] a few hours later. That's not distancing, that's just screwball. On this day, both Archer's patterns and Fabien's are of interest.

Both Archer's and Fabien's votes are stable - Fabien's a little more than Archer's. 

Archer's comment on D1 is that if he wanted to save TUO, he had a better strategy than going onto Elan and hoping to create a side-train. He could easily go onto me or stay on Ash. I will explore the viability of that line of argument later, I just want to get this out first.

Archer's Move:

Spoiler

Elandera (1): Archer<2>
The Unknown Order (1): Mat<2>
Kasimir (2): Drake<1>, Fabien, Drake<3>
Ashbringer (1): Archer<1>, Araris<2>
Araris (2): Kas<2>, Striker<2>
Archer (0): Mat<1>, Drake<2>
Steel (0): Striker<1>
Striker(0): Araris<1>
Drake (0): Kas<1>, TUO<1>

Here's a timestamp of the cycle when Archer moved. We had a three-way tie between myself, Ash, and Araris. Archer had said he felt I was likely Village so I was not a viable choice. It was late in the cycle: Archer's move comes at 1940hrs when the cycle ends at 0000hrs. Shy of 4 hours and 20 minutes to rollover. No idea if votes would remain stable. TUO isn't voting, and Araris has by this point moved to Ash. 

A poke vote on Elan turns into a stay vote for what in my view is eh reasoning - that Elan had gone onto TUO without much reasoning, which isn't especially a marker of suspicion, even though it's D1. (Hi Eiwlil :eyes: )

That being said, without Archer's move, it would be a four-person tie between Araris and two Villagers. I read this as being positive for Archer that he moved off of Ash. This creates a tie between an Elim and a Villager who wouldn't die. I don't really see this as being an Elim benefiting move since he could just as easily have stayed on Ash.

Given the timing of this move, I feel like the splinter train hypothesis doesn't work. TUO wasn't in danger at that point in time, and Archer's splinter train did doom Elan but it saved a Villager, which is odd for an Elim. Certainly, Archer chose to keep his vote on Elan and that's the eh part for me, but what's interesting is that Elan moves onto TUO barely an hour later:

Spoiler

Elandera (1): Archer<2>
The Unknown Order (2): Mat<2>, Elan
Kasimir (2): Drake<1>, Fabien, Drake<3>
Ashbringer (1): Archer<1>, Araris<2>
Araris (2): Kas<2>, Striker<2>
Archer (0): Mat<1>, Drake<2>
Steel (0): Striker<1>
Striker(0): Araris<1>
Drake (0): Kas<1>, TUO<1>

This creates a three-way tie between two Elims and the Village GC. Not at all a good state of affairs for the Elims.

This is broken by me (whoops), as I move from Araris to Ash. 

Spoiler

Elandera (1): Archer<2>
The Unknown Order (2): Mat<2>, Elan
Kasimir (2): Drake<1>, Fabien, Drake<3>
Ashbringer (2): Archer<1>, Araris<2>, Kas<3>
Araris (1): Kas<2>, Striker<2>
Archer (0): Mat<1>, Drake<2>
Steel (0): Striker<1>
Striker(0): Araris<1>
Drake (0): Kas<1>, TUO<1>

Archer is online but fine with this state of affairs, as he replies to Elan but does nothing. One Elim is still on the chopping block, though. One Villager for one Elim in a three-Elim team is still a decent trade. He may have been expecting to have TUO use his card. Unclear. And then Striker turns it into a proper TUO train under two hours to rollover. I hop onto the TUO train as well, and Mat flips and defects.

Spoiler

Elandera (2): Archer<2>, Mat<3>
The Unknown Order (3): Mat<2>, Elan, Striker<3>, Kas<4>
Kasimir (2): Drake<1>, Fabien, Drake<3>
Ashbringer (1): Archer<1>, Araris<2>, Kas<3>
Araris (0): Kas<2>, Striker<2>
Archer (0): Mat<1>, Drake<2>
Steel (0): Striker<1>
Striker(0): Araris<1>
Drake (0): Kas<1>, TUO<1>

Before Mat's defection, no amount of cards would save TUO. TUO would still be lynched. Archer could have been betting on TUO getting online in time to cast a self-pres vote, but the later it goes, the weirder it looks I think. People always pay more attention to move changes right before the end of the cycle. After Mat's defection, TUO could still be saved by a single use of his card.

At twelve minutes to rollover, I pull off of TUO and onto Elan. Archer and Araris (IIRC) were on and fine with this. TUO was not on. But TUO survives.

I don't especially find Archer's vote patterns weird, I think. It's possible for Archer to be betting on TUO but overall I lean Village on my read of D1 Archer. I also think that Evil Archer had no reason to specifically flag out that TUO was softing a lynch protect card. It's a bit like Araris's reasoning, but my take is that TUO has no problem making that known. I think Archer would.

[Edited to add: Day Two]

Spoiler

Striker (4): TUO, Kas<3>, Archer<2>, Kas<7>, Drake<2>
Fabien (2): Kas<1>, Araris<2>, Kas<6>, Striker<3>
TUO (0): Striker<1>
Archer (0): Kas<4>
Araris (0): Archer<1>
Drake (0): Kas<2>, Kas<5>, Steel, Striker<2>
Kas (0): Drake<1>
Ash (0): Araris<1>

Archer moves on to the Striker train. Notably, I created a mid-game 1-1-1 tie between several players, including:

Quote

StrikerEZ (1): The Unknown Order
Fabien (1): Araris Valerian
Kasimir (1): DrakeMarshall
DrakeMarshall (1): Kasimir
Araris (1): Archer
The Unknown Order (1): StrikerEZ

This would have guaranteed the death of two of the Elims. Archer breaks the tie. It's hard to say, as Fabien is our other Elim candidate, and a tie of this magnitude was always going to be bad. But Archer went on Striker, and later in the cycle, Striker creates a Drake-Fabien-Striker tie, which I break, by voting Striker. Archer remains on Striker, and Drake goes to Striker. But by this point, I don't see Drake being Elim, so I accept this as a players gonna player thing.

Day Three

Spoiler

Araris (3): Drake, Archer<1>, Ash, Kas<3>, Kas<4>
Drake (2): Archer<2>, Kas<2>, Araris<2>
Archer (0): Araris<1>
Ash (0): Kas<1>

Pulling off the Elim and going onto the Villager after Araris accumulates three votes is not of necessity a good look for Archer. We don't have Fabien data, unfortunately, so that's just the way these things go.

Issue is what to make of Araris's vote on Archer. Ultimately, I don't read this cycle as being very helpful except it vindicates Drake, and lightly myself. So I guess that's helpful: it reduces our Evil pool to two. And whoever came down on TUO, once again, thank you, that was clutch.

I'm going to vote Fabien. I don't think we'll get Archer back until Sunday evening, so that's quite a while. I feel like if Fabien gets a pinch-hitter, we might be more likely to get a response before then.

If neither Archer nor Fabien look to be back or posting by rollover, e.g. Lotus cannot find a pinch-hitter, I would suggest tying them. I also have a cardblock card (Two of Spears) which I can technically use to ensure no messing with the lynch  RNGesus has been kind to me this game. I don't especially care if Drake is the sole survivor since I currently have high credence in Village Drake.

Essentially the lack of voting patterns for Fabien is a problem. Later on, I'll do some post analysis for Archer and Araris. I just want to have done the vote analysis.

Araris was Honest. If we're lucky, we could potentially sift his posts for his tell or lies.

Edited to add: Ash's idea was a good one. I'm going to claim.

I didn't do anything C1. As Drake correctly identified, I had a One of Pens and I started with One of Guards as well. I wasn't intending to blow either since I wasn't in danger, and I felt I was close enough to the lynch pool that the Elims wouldn't want to blow a NKL on me this early.

I drew the Two of Swords and Two of Pens C2. I used the Two of Swords to check on Drake and saw he had a One of Spears.

C3 was a bit of a tough one for me. I didn't know if I wanted to use the Two of Pens to secure the lynch or not. I was genuinely torn because I felt the TUO lynch (as I said) more than any of the existing targets and Archer-Drake-Araris was a choice I was meh about. Eventually I sent in an order to use my One of Spears, because what the hell, whatever. I was kind of too done to try to make a decision and second-guessing myself at each point.

As a result of the One of Spears, I obtained the Two of Spears this cycle. Hence my card armoury  

Edited August 7, 2021 by Kasimir
Colour formatting

[+Lotus she/her]

Give a warm welcome to @xinoehp512who will be replacing Fabian!

[Kasimir he/him]

1 hour ago, Lotus said:

Give a warm welcome to @xinoehp512who will be replacing Fabian!

Hi xino, welcome to the party

True SE greeting.

Edited to add: Actually, you know what. Yeah, I think Archer is Village.

Several things stand out to me:

1. It's unusual for Elims to vote together. If we're suggesting the Elims were peripheral (which IMO, the voting data does show), it's odd for Archer to willingly follow TUO onto an endgame bad train. It's behaviour I expect from a new and underconfident player but not really Archer.

Day Two:

Spoiler

Striker (4): TUO, Kas<3>, Archer<2>, Kas<7>, Drake<2>
Fabien (2): Kas<1>, Araris<2>, Kas<6>, Striker<3>
TUO (0): Striker<1>
Archer (0): Kas<4>
Araris (0): Archer<1>
Drake (0): Kas<2>, Kas<5>, Steel, Striker<2>
Kas (0): Drake<1>
Ash (0): Araris<1>

We now know TUO is Evil. The only three players in danger that day were Striker, Fabien, and Archer. A reason we could propose Elims clumping together is to save another Elim. But we now know Drake is highly-likely Village, and Striker is Village and was lynched. The only hypothesis that works in this scenario was proposing that Evil Archer was trying to save Evil Fabien but that postulates a four man Elim team. IMO, that just doesn't fly. (Actually same for Drake - it'd require a TUO/Archer/Drake team. This doesn't work.) [Edited to add: Well, four man team, including Araris. Also a non-starter.]

2. Araris has a bussing rep but has, of late, tried to avoid voting on teammates or at least decisively voting on them. But I also find it strange he'd propose Archer as a target on a cycle most players were calling lylo. The danger of players deciding to consolidate on a teammate and high volatility makes this a worse choice than, say, in a game where lynches tie. [Edited to add: Where lynches don't kill on a tie.]

On 8/7/2021 at 0:54 AM, Araris Valerian said:

Archer has been pretty active this game. We had early pressure D1 on him from Mat and Drake, and Mat has since flipped village. I voted alongside Archer on Ashbringer, and Archer ultimately moved to Elandera near the end. So potential teammates are Ash, like I mentioned earlier, or Drake, for the D1 vote and retract. Last cycle, Archer voted on me before moving to Striker, who died. Drake and Archer did vote together that cycle. And given what's played out so far this cycle, and could see a Drake/Archer/Ash elim team.

On 8/7/2021 at 0:54 AM, Araris Valerian said:

If for some reason both Fabien and TUO are elims, I need to pick one out of Ash/Archer/Drake. But metagaming a bit, I don't think both Fabien and TUO would be elims together. Too much chance of having a really low activity elim team. So that means at least 2 out of Ash/Archer/Drake. Ash hasn't really given much, so that means I can ignore him and just look at Drake. Who I don't want to read any posts from, as entertaining as they have been to read up to this point.

Araris pushes against an Elim team with Fabien and TUO on it. I think this depends and assumes that Lotus would in fact balance for activity levels. But remember: this is a game where a two-man Elim team is a bit too weak and a three-man Elim team a bit too strong. What would an Archer-Araris-TUO Elim team be like? IMO having Fabien/xino for an Araris-TUO-xino makes more sense: it splits the difference, nerfing the team with a new player. And Araris has a strong rep as an experienced Elim player.

I feel Araris is redirecting too strongly to the Ash/Archer/Drake pool. We now know two of them are Village. It wouldn't be weird for him to slip an Elim in, but given he actually voted on Archer at lylo before swapping to self-pres, that just feels odd.

3. I would like to get action claims from @Archer and @xinoehp512. In xino's case, it'll likely be C1/C2. TUO's and Araris's action claims were odd, and we are at endgame here. I think there's every reason to share with the class at this stage of the game. @DrakeMarshall, I'd like it if you could  share with the class as well because I think we can mechanically piece together part of what went on.

4. This post kind of stood out to me at that time.

On 8/7/2021 at 1:21 AM, Araris Valerian said:

The secondary issue is that village!Fabien and a 3-person elim team kinda just stinks. Even perfectly guessing the elim team here the game will come down to luck of the card draw, or Fabien returning.

It seemed like a non-sequitur. Like, okay, it'd suck for us if Fabien is Village. But there was frustration in the tone of this post that didn't really make sense to me. Lotus had no way of knowing Fabien's activity patterns prior to the game because he was a new player. And how much it sucks for us therefore has nothing much to do with the problem at hand, which is lylo. It especially doesn't make sense now that we know Araris is Elim. 

But I think it does make sense for an Araris who is on a rather low-activity Elim team, with TUO and Fabien/xino. Araris on an Archer/TUO team would have no reason to let his frustration slip through. And if we reverse what Archer is saying - then a team with two low-activity players but especially one inactive Elim, given that we've already said that a two-man team seems too weak? This explains the frustration: even if they play perfectly, they're likely to face issues to do with luck of the card draw, or the inactive coming back. [Edited to add: To clarify, their path to victory will also significantly depend on the luck of the card draw, or Fabien's return. They have now been replaced by xino.]

Anyway.

The lazy way to resolve this cycle IMO is if we can force an Archer-xino tie since that'd guarantee a Village win. If there's no way to ensure this plays out, then I think we simply have to do the hard work. (We can't disrespect our efforts last cycle, and those of the Village vig!)

Edited to add 2: Here's another thought. Drake, I didn't roleblock anyone. We had seven players last cycle. <Drake, Kas, Araris, TUO, Archer, Ash, Fabien.> Fabien was too inactive to put in anything. Araris and TUO wouldn't have done the Shardblade kill. IMO, the likely candidates are you or Ash. TUO was on Archer's trust list, and while Archer could have ruled him out in order to guarantee a non-wasted kill, I don't think so. 

I think mechanical claiming will help us sort things out a little more. I also think the Steel kill is not really in Evil Archer's MO. But I also feel that Archer is the kind of guy likely to put in an Elim kill before going. Why not? He can't react to last minute changes anyway so his card action would be useless, allowing the other teammates to use their cards, especially important if TUO Cheated a useful card, or if Araris needed to self-pres. 

So here's the thing. First, I think in this scenario, Elim Archer would put the kill on a player like Ash or potentially, me. Someone who wouldn't be up for the lynch so less reason to change the order last minute. It'd be odd to send it in on you since he voted you, and he knew there was a live Araris train. Fabien is pointless because inactive. Araris and TUO were non-starters for obvious reasons. 

If there is no role-block, i.e. you didn't put it in, and Archer didn't put it in, and neither of you put in the Shardblade kill order, and I sure as hell didn't, then I think what the Elim team really suffered from was actions economy issues. According to my check at 0448hrs my time, TUO last visited the site 22 hours ago. So TUO wasn't on for end cycle changes. In other words, I think that Araris had a choice: self-pres or NK. This doesn't make sense with an Archer team, unless we suppose Araris was lying about having vote manip. But then, what is Araris's tell?

Araris NKed. And in doing so, he couldn't self-pres. He gambled on making one of us pull off, thinking he had vote manip.

Barring further information about other player actions, I think this strongly points to an Araris-TUO-Fabien/xino team. Happy to revise, but unless I receive new information that significantly changes things, my vote will stay on xino.

Edited to add 3: Just for reference, this post was first made at 0348hrs my time, and I am not going to keep editing and adding stuff I want to hear from everyone else. Tagging so you all know I have stopped adding thoughts: @DrakeMarshall, @xinoehp512, @Archer

Edited to add 4: Ah well. Here's another thought. Suppose I am correct about the actions economy issues. Suppose Araris was truthful about the vote manip. Why would Araris choose to kill over putting in vote manip? Because the lack of a kill and the presence of vote manip would point either to an inactive or to someone using their card actions. And if a vote went missing from Araris, it can only be Araris who used a card action. Too much suspicion would accrue to him. 

So let's wargame this.

Scenario A: Araris uses One of Pens

Drake gets lynched. We go into the next cycle 3-3. Elim team must outnumber. We know that the card action can only be performed by Araris, and the lack of a kill is telling. Attention immediately goes to all the inactive players, which to be fair, could include Archer, but also, Araris, TUO, and Fabien. That's not optimal. We are almost guaranteed an Elim lynch in this scenario, to go to 2-2 or 3-2.

Scenario B: Araris uses Two of Pens

Drake and Araris get lynched. We go into the next cycle 3-2. Elim team loses their most active player, and the fact that no kill was put in once again points us to TUO, Fabien, and potentially Archer. This is suboptimal. 

Recall that in both scenarios, I have already been calling for TUO's head. Araris probably senses this could fuel a TUO lynch.

Killing, in his view, would still leave ambiguity, potentially. It doesn't especially implicate his teammates.

That's my guess anyway.

Edited August 7, 2021 by Kasimir

[Kasimir he/him]

Sorry for the double post, but I don't want my clarificatory question to @Lotus / @Illwei to get buried.

I'd like to check my understanding of how strictly the Honest rules are enforced.

1.

4 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

Well, I did mention having a vote manip card earlier, so I'm pretty sure we will have double deaths from the vote today.

To me, this reads as though you would not consider this a lie as long as:

A. It is true that Araris mentioned having vote manip earlier, and
B. It is true that he is certain there will be double deaths today from the vote.

2.

23 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

Yeah but vote manip isn't very helpful when you aren't online at the end of the turn.

This is a very Aes Sedai statement to me. Araris implies having vote manip, but this is really a statement that vote manip is not helpful when you can't be online late, which is more or less true. Since Lotus has stated that she will also care about the spirit of the statement, I want to clarify if:

You would not consider this a lie as long as:

A. It is true that having vote manip is not very useful if a player (ANY PLAYER!) isn't online at the end of the turn.

In other words, I'm asking if you would consider this a lie if a player does not have vote manip and actually says this.

I want to clarify I'm not asking for GM confirmation if Araris is speaking the truth. I'm asking for GM confirmation if I am correct in interpreting the conditions under which you would require him to insert his tell. But I'm going to pre-emptively ping @Devotary of Spontaneity to make sure that this is kosher.

Edited August 7, 2021 by Kasimir
Underlined not

[Archer he/him]

[I leave for one day and y'all decide to solve the game without me?

I don't have long, but I'll info drop so I can help out that way. Don't expect anything much from me besides agreement that Drake looks okay off of this. 

I am Honest. I'll spoiler my tell in case you want to guess... 

Spoiler

Doing RP

C1 blocked Ashbringer. C2 NK protected Kas. C3 I NK protected Kas again, because he a cool bro and I had the cards. Tonight I do have vote manip. I'm down to tie it between Xino and I and just let the Captain be our designated survivor. But not knowing what vote manip Xino has, I worry that could lead to a Drake-Xino coinflip round. Anyone got any card blocks? For now I'll refrain from doubling just to make your lives easier. 

Fabien/Xino] 

[Kasimir he/him]

20 minutes ago, Archer said:

C1 blocked Ashbringer. C2 NK protected Kas. C3 I NK protected Kas again, because he a cool bro and I had the cards. Tonight I do have vote manip. I'm down to tie it between Xino and I and just let the Captain be our designated survivor. But not knowing what vote manip Xino has, I worry that could lead to a Drake-Xino coinflip round. Anyone got any card blocks? For now I'll refrain from doubling just to make your lives easier. 

I have a Two of Spears. Happy to stop interference if that's the decision. I'm not really interested in One of Guards-ing myself because I feel that it'd just let xino go for you or Drake or open too many options.

Alternatively I can do Two of Pens as well and make this one hell of a solid train.

...Sigh. When I bet there would be at least two Oops incidents this game, I really didn't expect to be connected to them this intimately >>

[+Lotus she/her]

2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

A. It is true that Araris mentioned having vote manip earlier, and
B. It is true that he is certain there will be double deaths today from the vote.

Correct.

2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

A. It is true that having vote manip is not very useful if a player (ANY PLAYER!) isn't online at the end of the turn.

I would say I would consider it true so long as Araris considered it to not be useful to him.

[Kasimir he/him]

Just now, Lotus said:

Correct.

I would say I would consider it true so long as Araris considered it to not be useful to him.

Understood, thank you Lotus  

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

@DrakeMarshall, how good's your post analysis?

Better than my snowman making skills, but not possibly up to the task.

2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

I'm willing to go all-in on you being Village at this point.

Yeah, well don’t expect me to be willing to extend the same to you, mmkay? After last cycle you seem pretty sketchy.

I should have known the pattern would turn on you smh.

2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

I'm going to play to my strengths, which is vote analysis. I'm going to highlight Drake in green as he's now my highest Elim confidence. [Edit: Village. Sigh. Drake, you're infecting me with your backwards style .__.]

Noooo don’t join the dark side that would probably be boring and the opposite of chaotic.

Ya know I’ve been doing the same stuff for outside of this game too so at least it’s been pretty easy to stay consistent 

4 hours ago, Kasimir said:

@DrakeMarshall, I'd like it if you could  share with the class as well because I think we can mechanically piece together part of what went on.

Seems like a bad idea tbh.

One thing I didn’t do was play a One of Pens last round, and so I can be sure Araris didn’t either.

Right now I don’t have either of the Guards in my hand.

Since I’m very sporting and not at all a Cheater, I definitely did not sneak [Two of Spears, Two of Spears, Two of Swords] off of the table.

The evil team can make of all that what they won’t 

I’m going to vote right now because I haven’t just gotten home from a long drive and I’m not about to see some guests. Since I’m voting now, I definitely won’t vote later today. Tbh I probably won’t vote Xino but neither do I really want to hear what they have to say, seeing as they have been around for ages. If Xino is an eliminator they are certainly in an enviable position right now.

[Kasimir he/him]

36 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

One thing I didn’t do was play a One of Pens last round, and so I can be sure Araris didn’t either.

If you played a One of Pens, that complicates things. If so, we should see:

Quote

Araris (4): Kas, Drake, Ash
Drake: (2): Archer, Araris

I think the only two options that would result in the VC we see would be:

1. Someone on the Archer train used a Two of Pens, which negated the difference. Archer claimed to have used a Guard card. So if you weren't cardblocked (can you confirm this?) - it'd just have to be Araris. As you said, One of Pens could affect this, as could Two of Pens. Tbf, I don't see Araris lying about vote manip given the scans and there are better "Please don't lynch me!" cards to lie about/claim.

2. Araris was roleblocked. Neither you nor Archer has claimed a roleblock, I didn't do it either, and Fabien/xino was inactive so I'm going to thank @Ashbringer for that clutch Shardblade kill and move on

If that is the case, my hypothesis then is that he likely did use vote manip to try to protect himself, yours cancelled it out (phew!) and TUO likely had the kill in their actions earlier. Does potentially mean Archer could've also done the kill order earlier, but I am more inclined to give weight to the vote evidence from D2. Elim Archer has no reason to double up on Striker. Also, just my read of what Araris was doing, I suppose

36 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Since I’m very sporting and not at all a Cheater, I definitely did not sneak [Two of Spears, Two of Spears, Two of Swords] off of the table.

That's a lot of Spears. If you've picked Two of Spears up, you want to do the honours, assuming we do go on xino in the end? I'll use Two of Pens to solidify the wagon. One of Guards feels selfish in this context  

Edited to add: Tbf, depends on if you want to be all-in on Evil xino. The alternative is we get Archer to Two of Pens, you Two of Spears xino, and I One of Guards myself and hang on to my Two of Pens, guaranteeing that in the unlikely event if I go into a one-on-one cycle with Evil Archer, I can ensure he gets lynched. If he NKs me, the lynch should get him, which I think should be a failure of the outnumbering condition. If he RBs me, he can't NK me and I think we both die anyway.

@Lotus - what happens if the last Villager and last Elim both die? Who wins?

Edited to add 2: Oh holy smokes I forgot this is negated -.-

36 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Right now I don’t have either of the Guards in my hand.

As long as you have the self-protect Guard card, you can do it too. I'm indifferent as to which of us goes into the last round to mano-a-mano on the offchance Archer is Evil. I forgot Two of Pens doesn't matter because Archer might draw more vote manip next round. One of us just has to hang on to the Two of Spears. But I'm waiting for the GM clarification first on the results of a Village-Elim 1v1.

Edited August 8, 2021 by Kasimir

[+Lotus she/her]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

@Lotus - what happens if the last Villager and last Elim both die? Who wins?

Tie

[Kasimir he/him]

1 minute ago, Lotus said:

Tie

Thanks! 

Alright. Be good to hear from Xino, agreed, though being a pinch-hitter having to explain whatever the player before you must have been thinking is unenviable. 

Still think it's better not to be too all-in on—huh. 

Right. I still think it's better not to be too all-in on xino and it's worth one of us surviving to endgame just in case we have to 1v1 Archer. Indifferent on which and I realise it doesn't make a significant difference as long as we ensure only one lynch train so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

How interested are you in fighting Archer?

[xinoehp512 he/him]

Uh, hello.  I have literally no idea what's going on! And I'm being exed! How fun.  

Fabien used a one of swords on Kasimir to discover that he had a one of pens. Other than that, he did nothing.

My role is Honest, and my tell is strikethrough text. Fabien was actually unlucky enough to roll Kas/Guard Captain as one of his reveals. I think that should have been against the rules  although even if it had been another person they would probably be dead by now anyways, so it wouldn't have affected me that much.

So, uh... could someone give me the rundown on why it is exactly I'm getting exed?

[+Lotus she/her]

22 minutes ago, xinoehp512 said:

I think that should have been against the rules

Grumble grumble

[+Lotus she/her]

Updated VC (Thanks dead doc for catching my mistake)

Araris (4): Kas, Drake, Ash

Drake: (2): Archer, Araris

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

5 hours ago, Kasimir said:

If you played a One of Pens, that complicates things.

I think so.

Last of all, I was roleblocked.

But, wouldn’t a two of pens mean there are ultimately more votes in circulation when the dust clears? Depending on where the extra votes end up, it should be impossible to tell if a Two of Pens was used.

Unless I am reading things correctly. Which is impossible.

2 hours ago, Lotus said:

Updated VC (Thanks dead doc for catching my mistake)

Araris (4): Kas, Drake, Ash

Drake: (2): Archer, Araris

Oh. Well that clears up nothing.

5 hours ago, Kasimir said:

That's a lot of Spears. If you've picked Two of Spears up, you want to do the honours, assuming we do go on xino in the end? I'll use Two of Pens to solidify the wagon. One of Guards feels selfish in this context  

Would it be a terrible idea to flip some coins to decide on the action?  Just the possibility of being protected is not worth anything much.

If you would prefer to count on me blocking the recipient of today’s vote, then too bad I won’t help with that, but I will note that letting my action be uncertain doesn’t have any uses of its own.

I am definitely not planning on taking the Two of Spears over the Two of Swords, in any case.

3 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Right. I still think it's better not to be too all-in on xino and it's worth one of us surviving to endgame just in case we have to 1v1 Archer. Indifferent on which and I realise it doesn't make a significant difference as long as we ensure only one lynch train so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

How interested are you in fighting Archer?

Me? Fight Archer? I would never 

2 hours ago, xinoehp512 said:

Uh, hello.  I have literally no idea what's going on! And I'm being exed! How fun.  

Hi!

You are certainly getting dropped into the shallows for this game. Must be boring 

2 hours ago, xinoehp512 said:

So, uh... could someone give me the rundown on why it is exactly I'm getting exed?

Nope you’re on your own tbh.

Me and Kasimir are both pretty evil, see?

Between you and Archer, I am of the opinion that removing you would do more damage to the village.

Archer was just a bit suspicious, honestly. Not because of anything Kasimir has said or anything I noticed and should probably explain, just, because.

Edit: Xino 

Edited August 8, 2021 by DrakeMarshall

[Kasimir he/him]

5 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Oh. Well that clears up nothing.

Yeah, then I think we can ignore the foregoing as moot

[Edited to add 3: Ignore this section, or don't. I'm tired and I just realised I made an error in reasoning.]

Araris submitted the kill, I think. Either he was lying about vote manip (possible, but if so, what's his tell? That he can only post in a single sentence when he lies? But that doesn't make sense because of what Lotus said about both the first statement on having vote manip and

10 hours ago, Lotus said:

I would say I would consider it true so long as Araris considered it to not be useful to him.

which is a very weird lie to get caught on) or he didn't have a viable teammate to put in a kill. But I can't see Archer missing a kill - if it was a three man team, then the Elim team would know it was lylo and Evil Archer had decent kill targets that weren't teammates: me, Ash, Fabien/xino. We've established why xino would've been a non-starter for the Elim team because you always play in case the round doesn't end, so it was down to me or Ash. Possibly decided Ash was less likely to attract protection, but either way you slice it, Araris should not have been facing actions economy issues if Archer was his teammate.

I also still think that lying about vote manip is tough in a game with a number of scans floating around, and there are better "don't lynch me" cards to claim, namely Guards. 

We know Araris can't have been roleblocked in any case. The Shardblade kill definitely happened, and given it was on TUO, came from a Villager. Xino submitted nothing, you submitted a One of Pens, I submitted a One of Spears. Archer claims to have used Two of Guards (thanks @Archer  ) but: A. I feel like if we presume Archer was lying, it's better for Archer to have actually lied about having roleblocked Araris, since that gets him more Village cred. The limitation is that's a bit less plausible, and Archer may not have fully caught up on the cycle, but something like "Oh yeah I didn't remove my action from Araris whoops" would still have not been especially sus, B. As a more general point, if Archer did in fact roleblock Araris, claiming that is better as we'd consider it an action with more verification.

I'd ask if you think one of them is actually a Clever and is lying, but come to think of it, you and Mat both thought having a Cheater was a bit too strong for an Elim team. Having two Honests is sort of a counterbalance in that regard. 

5 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Would it be a terrible idea to flip some coins to decide on the action?  Just the possibility of being protected is not worth anything much.

If you would prefer to count on me blocking the recipient of today’s vote, then too bad I won’t help with that, but I will note that letting my action be uncertain doesn’t have any uses of its own.

I am definitely not planning on taking the Two of Spears over the Two of Swords, in any case.

It's ultimately up to your preference, I think. I note that if neither of us roleblocks, since our votes are currently on xino, xino can only choose between forcing a lynch (One of Pens removes one vote from you and randomly redistributes it to any player with at least one vote on them - so xino can only redistribute it to their counterwagon) and if they do that, then they can't NK.

As long as we don't go for the tie option, which, IMO, requires us to block too much potential inteference, in the best case scenario, since we're more certain xino is Evil, we have two surviving Villagers and win. In the worst case scenario, we are still committed to a 1 v 1 with Archer. So unless I'm missing something (please correct me if I'm wrong!), I don't see anything inherently bad with going the coinflip route, if that's what you prefer. I think either way we should ask Archer to double the xino vote since that creates a bigger gap that can't really be exploited. With a four vote xino train, either Pens card shouldn't be able to save xino.

8 hours ago, xinoehp512 said:

So, uh... could someone give me the rundown on why it is exactly I'm getting exed?

Voting from last cycle clears Drake and myself. It's down to you and Archer. Archer has better voting patterns and Village Archer makes more sense with Araris's behaviour and posts from the last cycle.

Edited to add: @Lotus, is One of Pens able to remove two votes if Two of Pens has also been used? So Ren uses One of Pens. Gamma is voting on Ren and uses Two of Pens. Can One of Pens remove two votes instead?

Edited to add 2: Xino, I'm partly going to agree this is out of your control because as a pinch-hitter, it's hard to explain the actions of the player you took over for, particularly if they haven't done anything. I'm open to being convinced that Archer is a better target, though I have explained my reasons for thinking you are Elim. I think knowing what cards you have and intend to play would also be helpful. But otherwise, I acknowledge it's an uphill task because we have a record for Archer, and we have none for you.

EDITED TO ADD 4: No, wait. Okay. Yeah. Only way for us to get 4:2 requires that you used One of Pens and Araris used Two of Pens. This means that either Archer (on an Evil Archer hypothesis) or TUO (on an Evil xino hypothesis) made the kill. At least we can then tell Araris was truthful. I still think an Elim team with Archer would have more kill flexibility though. I'm tired and need more sleep

Edited August 8, 2021 by Kasimir

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

8 hours ago, Kasimir said:

I'd ask if you think one of them is actually a Clever and is lying, but come to think of it, you and Mat both thought having a Cheater was a bit too strong for an Elim team. Having two Honests is sort of a counterbalance in that regard. 

Nah, but in retrospect I don’t think there is any reason to wonder if it might be balanced in a role madness setup.

Mind you, a single shardblade would not have made a big difference in this game, but so far both cheaters have drawn shardblades, so yeah.

10 hours ago, Kasimir said:

EDITED TO ADD 4: No, wait. Okay. Yeah. Only way for us to get 4:2 requires that you used One of Pens and Araris used Two of Pens. This means that either Archer (on an Evil Archer hypothesis) or TUO (on an Evil xino hypothesis) made the kill. At least we can then tell Araris was truthful. I still think an Elim team with Archer would have more kill flexibility though. I'm tired and need more sleep

Bad point.

Was TUO online to submit actions? I think not, and don’t correct me if I’m wrong.

I am pretty sure Ashbringer knifed TUO for some other reason than that PoE on who could have submitted kills somewhat pointed to TUO.

Hey @Archer did you draw that vote manipulation card at the beginning of this cycle?

[Kasimir he/him]

45 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Nah, but in retrospect I don’t think there is any reason to wonder if it might be balanced in a role madness setup.

Mind you, a single shardblade would not have made a big difference in this game, but so far both cheaters have drawn shardblades, so yeah.

Bad point.

Was TUO online to submit actions? I think not, and don’t correct me if I’m wrong.

I am pretty sure Ashbringer knifed TUO for some other reason than that PoE on who could have submitted kills somewhat pointed to TUO.

Hey @Archer did you draw that vote manipulation card at the beginning of this cycle?

On mobile so quoting is jank right now. 

1. Yeah. Volatility due to unblockable Shardblade kills could be a factor for in determining Elim team composition in a game this small, so agreed. 

2. TUO was on at some point. The last I checked was maybe 4 hours after rollover and his status indicated he was last on the Shard 22 hours ago. Possible to put in kill, just wouldn't be able to handle last minute changes.

Likely for Ash, yeah. Clutch though

Don't forget your orders, guys. @Archer, be nice if you could Two of Pens this