Mid-range game 52: Guard Duty

[Ashbringer he/him]

Actually, if we're counting this as exelo, we might have better luck looking at actions and who killed Steel. There's seven of us, and Fabian and I weren't on to submit the kill. That leaves TUO, Kasimir, Archer, Drake, Araris.

Drake claims (???) he used Two of Guards to protect Archer via Cheater mechanics. Not really confirmable.

Kas claims he used Two of Swords to investigate Drake, turning up with One of Spears. 

This (with the clarification) matches with Drake's claims, although I believe Drake could have used a card C1 and then gotten no cards and put in the kill C2. Or Kas could have just made up the scan and made it match what he would have seen. Or any other paranoid thing that I could think of. Who knows.

 

@The Unknown Order, @Archer, @Araris Valerian, any actions that would clear you from killing Steel?

[Araris Valerian he/him]

42 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Araris, I'm interested in why TUO is so low on your suspicions list. I agree that there was no real movement to save TUO, and that spending cards recklessly isn't Elim, but the more I look at his voting patterns, the more I don't feel good marking him more than lean Village, especially given the fact he had an anti-lynch card. I feel like there's a tendency to over-anchor on the D1 vote here when we've acknowledged a less risk-averse Elim team (or one that inactive) could be happy with those events.

The issue with TUO is that he just hasn't done that much. The D1 thing is just about all there is to go on him, considering we are in D3. If it weren't almost certainly LyLo, I'd vote him out right after Fabien (maybe even before) out of principle. But I feel more confident in one of Archer/Ash/Drake. I'm also not sure why elim!TUO would reveal having a vote manip card.

6 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

@The Unknown Order, @Archer, @Araris Valerian, any actions that would clear you from killing Steel?

Nope, I didn't draw anything after the first cycle.

[Kasimir he/him]

Just now, Ashbringer said:

Actually, if we're counting this as exelo, we might have better luck looking at actions and who killed Steel. There's seven of us, and Fabian and I weren't on to submit the kill. That leaves TUO, Kasimir, Archer, Drake, Araris.

Mechanical analysis? A man after my own heart 

I'm interested if you get responses. On the assumption Archer is Village, Archer is going to be a problem one way or another depending on player numbers as his vote won't move, so this should make for an interesting Lylo.

I think we are generally in agreement Fabien is a non-starter, despite my leaning Elim on him. Which makes my main existing Elim read Araris, but Araris's first post on this page is making me waver on that. I might be okay with reintroducing TUO into that pool given assumptions about the Elim team's risk appetite and the revelation of his card. 

I think I'm also thinking of consolidation. If we're right that Fabien is Elim or there's some measure of Elim inactivity, we might not have to worry about an Elim hammer but who knows. At any rate I'm not certain I'm feeling the Archer or the Drake trains per se. They're in my pool strictly based off voting patterns but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ I do have to cull them off reads too, and IDK.

1 minute ago, Araris Valerian said:

But I feel more confident in one of Archer/Ash/Drake.

I assume this is where your "a two-man TUO-Fabien team would be too unbalanced" thoughts come into play.

[Ashbringer he/him]

13 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Nope, I didn't draw anything after the first cycle.

You start with two cards...

[Araris Valerian he/him]

14 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

You start with two cards...

Yeah but vote manip isn't very helpful when you aren't online at the end of the turn.

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

48 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Actually, if we're counting this as exelo, we might have better luck looking at actions and who killed Steel. There's seven of us, and Fabian and I weren't on to submit the kill. That leaves TUO, Kasimir, Archer, Drake, Araris.

Drake claims (???) he used Two of Guards to protect Archer via Cheater mechanics. Not really confirmable.

Kas claims he used Two of Swords to investigate Drake, turning up with One of Spears. 

This (with the clarification) matches with Drake's claims, although I believe Drake could have used a card C1 and then gotten no cards and put in the kill C2. Or Kas could have just made up the scan and made it match what he would have seen. Or any other paranoid thing that I could think of. Who knows.

 

@The Unknown Order, @Archer, @Araris Valerian, any actions that would clear you from killing Steel?

I, unfortunately, did the same action as Kas, except with the One of Swords I drew.

[Kasimir he/him]

3 minutes ago, The Unknown Order said:

I, unfortunately, did the same action as Kas, except with the One of Swords I drew.

Who did you target? Can they confirm this?

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

17 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Who did you target? Can they confirm this?

Exactly the same, I went on Drake as well.

[Kasimir he/him]

22 minutes ago, The Unknown Order said:

Exactly the same, I went on Drake as well.

Ah. Awkward

So just to recap:

Quote

 

Drake claims to have used Two of Guards on Archer.

I claim to have used Two of Swords on Drake.

Ash claims to have been away. He blue-texted this so I am fairly confident the kill didn't come from him because we do not want to start down this dark line of reasoning.

Fabien last signed into the Shard at 3:48AM - for me. That would be nearly 4 hours after rollover C2 and then not at all. Lotus has confirmed she does not accept Elim doc NKs. They did not submit the kill either.

No claim from Archer but Archer is off so we can't expect more from him.

TUO claims to have used One of Swords on Drake. (Why Drake? Do you suspect him? What are your thoughts given Striker's flip and what is the current state of your suspicions?)

Araris claims to have drawn no cards and so used none.

 

I am a little suspicious of Araris's claim not to have used any cards but I feel as though it would be easier for him to lie and claim something like One of Spears, especially given we are looking for kill candidates. I'm a bit alarmed by TUO's claim to have used One of Swords on Drake. And I'm also a bit eh about Drake's claim to have used Two of Guards on Archer.

We need to also remember that the lack of a claim from Archer doesn't necessitate anything - it's just that more information won't be forthcoming on that front.

Edited to add: I think this might give us a way to make sense of Striker's shift. He may have used his ability on Araris, saw Araris had vote manip, and joined him in a last ditch hope that Araris had used it.

Edited to add 2: Because cheated cards do not belong to your hand, Drake's specific claim is unverifiable. TUO's is in theory verifiable if someone happened to scan him, which did not happen. 

Edited August 6, 2021 by Kasimir
Bolded rigid designators

[Ashbringer he/him]

Hmm. @Lotus, when a Cheater cheats out a card, is that their action or just something they can do? I.e. can a Cheater cheat out a card, then submit an Elim kill instead of using a card?

[+Lotus she/her]

2 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Hmm. @Lotus, when a Cheater cheats out a card, is that their action or just something they can do? I.e. can a Cheater cheat out a card, then submit an Elim kill instead of using a card?

Well Elim kill counts as a card action not a role action so one could cheat same turn as they kill

[Ashbringer he/him]

2 minutes ago, Lotus said:

Well Elim kill counts as a card action not a role action so one could cheat same turn as they kill

Hmm. Good to know...

Follow-up: If a cheated-in card isn't used immediately, does it just go into their hand? And would that show up on a Two of Swords scan that same turn? 

[+Lotus she/her]

11 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Hmm. Good to know...

Follow-up: If a cheated-in card isn't used immediately, does it just go into their hand? And would that show up on a Two of Swords scan that same turn? 

It would just go in their hand.

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

12 hours ago, Kasimir said:

@Lotus - I'd like a clarification of the Cheating rules. I'm going to give you a scenario. Please tell me if I am correct in surmising this is how it works.

Wyrm is a Cheater. 

Suppose that Wyrm begins the game C1 with the One of Spears and One of Pens.

Wyrm uses his Cheat action. He sacrifices the One of Pens to gain a card. You present him with three options during C2 (well, rollover) [Two of Pens, One of Swords, Two of Guards.] The One of Pens is already written-off. At any point during C2, terminating at rollover, Wyrm is allowed to select one of these three cards. Selection does not cost an action as he has already spent his role action C1 on this. 

So Wyrm can select and use the Two of Guards and then change his mind and go for the Two of Pens. It's allowed because it's 3C1 and the role action has already been spent. Whatever he confirms in the GM PM at rollover is final. Moreover, he is allowed to use the card in the same Turn it is selected.

Am I correct in my understanding?

Edited to add: Here are two more questions I'd like to build into this scenario.

A. What would someone who scans Wyrm during C1 with a Two of Swords see?

B. What would someone who scans Wyrm during C2 with a Two of Swords see?

Boo no you are totally off target.

As eager as I am to change my mind about this, I think there are lots of plausible reasons for an eliminator to go through the trouble of figuring out what I was getting at. Leaving things be would not suit the purposes of the eliminators very well.

If elim!Kasimir is trying to protect against a potential Shardblade, well, we certainly can’t cross that bridge when we get to it, but one way or the other that would generally be something to hash out in the thread.

Point is, I guess I can’t trust you for one cycle. Or at least, sussing you is likely to change things, right now. And I swear I am not the slightest bit grumpy about this state of affairs 

8 hours ago, Archer said:

Two things:

-Striker was Clever. He could only play a card every other turn. 

-I'm sticking to my guns on Drake, despite his excellent snowman making skills

My snowman making skills are simply the worst there is.

Just.

The worst.

8 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

Actually, if we're counting this as exelo, we might have better luck looking at actions and who killed Steel. There's seven of us, and Fabian and I weren't on to submit the kill. That leaves TUO, Kasimir, Archer, Drake, Araris.

Drake claims (???) he used Two of Guards to protect Archer via Cheater mechanics. Not really confirmable.

Kas claims he used Two of Swords to investigate Drake, turning up with One of Spears. 

This (with the clarification) matches with Drake's claims, although I believe Drake could have used a card C1 and then gotten no cards and put in the kill C2. Or Kas could have just made up the scan and made it match what he would have seen. Or any other paranoid thing that I could think of. Who knows.

 

@The Unknown Order, @Archer, @Araris Valerian, any actions that would clear you from killing Steel?

Hmm this is terrible me no like.

Another data point: I’m pretty sure you caught this but I wasn’t cardblocked last turn?

Whoever did that must have committed the eliminator kill at the same time. This increases the suspect pool.

Mind you, seeing as they already stepped forward for some reason, a priori I am a bit inclined to believe this person is both currently alive and village. I reckon neither alignment would have good reasons to cardblock me, but I kind of feel like a villager would be somewhat less likely to claim it by now, if they did.

Anyways, you are wrong, I do have an alibi for last turn, since my card action succeeded.

I don’t have any alibis for the first cycle, though. I am sure everyone will want to share what they were doing during the first cycle but doing a mechanical analysis of the first cycle is still probably impossible.

———

Anyways, I am not at all concerned that Araris isn’t actually making any sense with his reasoning tbh. You can probably expect that I won’t be online again before the end of the cycle. For now I wish you all a terrible night.

[Ashbringer he/him]

7 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Another data point: I’m pretty sure you caught this but I wasn’t cardblocked last turn?

Whoever did that must have committed the eliminator kill at the same time. This increases the suspect pool.

… did what?

I don’t think I thought you were cardblocked, just that V!Kas’s result doesn’t necessarily clear you from putting in a kill.

 

Edit: Oh. Right. HrhrhsvdkbwgJhshhdbdvxbdbhshjx Draaaaaaaaake

Edited August 7, 2021 by Ashbringer

[Kasimir he/him]

5 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Whoever did that must have committed the eliminator kill at the same time. This increases the suspect pool.

Mind you, seeing as they already stepped forward for some reason, a priori I am a bit inclined to believe this person is both currently alive and village. I reckon neither alignment would have good reasons to cardblock me, but I kind of feel like a villager would be somewhat less likely to claim it by now, if they did.

Could be both I think. Villager would want to claim to clear the PoE. Elim would want to claim to have an alibi. Unless it's Archer (who has done a bit of a 180 on you this cycle, I think), I feel like it's more likely to be Steel or Striker. Steel sussed you, and Striker was in the thread late and might've seen you there. Two minutes to react isn't much time though, at end of cycle, but.

Sigh. Alright imma do something kasyana. Araris.

Edited to add:

I don't think there's a point in waiting or splitting the vote at this point I guess. So much for that thought. We don't know for sure if the Elims will hammer, but if they do, we're in for it anyway, on the assumption this is lylo. Might not be true, but you always play for the worst scenario, not the best.

The three existing candidates are Drake, Archer, Araris. I am honestly very tempted to let the tie sort this out but we know the Elims won't let this pass, unless it so happens that the Elim team is Ash-TUO-Fabien. Doing so would then immediately guarantee an Elim victory so that is not a viable option. Of such a team, I currently have the most credence in Village Ash. I feel that Elim Ash could've focused on reads and vote analysis to sort of skate by instead of bringing in the mechanical aspect, which at least gave us another element to look at, even if it has turned out not being particularly helpful. I don't have any voting history for Ash, so I'm going to have to keep any credence in Village Ash light.

I feel a bit reluctant to meta-game about the viability of a TUO-Fabien pair but I don't vastly disagree with Araris's reasoning that it just seems very hard as a GM to allow such a thing through. While SE has moved on from the days of assuming that skilled players alone can overcome any distro disadvantage (hello LG20, which presumed a team of Wilson, Orlok, and Alv, with me and Lopen as ridealong sidekicks would be able to take on anything) I would not be surprised if the distro for the Elim pair ends up being two active but peripheral players, which would take me back to the current existing triad of <Drake, Archer, Araris.> The nice thing about such a scenario would be that 2/3 our candidates are already up for the lynch, but I'm hardly going to rely on that.

Hmm.

Ah, bloody hell. If it really comes down to reads...

I feel as though Drake could be bluffing. But there's no real point in being so detailed about it and I'm not necessarily sure Drake would be the sort to clarify the scan rules with the GM before trying the bluff. There are also simpler ones to deal with. Light Village.

Ash stimulated and engaged with more activity, feel Elim Ash would behave differently. Very light Village.

Araris and Archer are the two peripheral/low vote flexibility voters that are left in my pool and that are up for the grinch. I feel a bit uncomfortable with  both of them. Araris's reasoning for ignoring TUO and Archer's reasoning for Drake/Ashbringer/Araris are things I'm not comfortable with. I'd put it the other way around: why would Village TUO admit to having a lynch protect card? Using it can keep you from being mislynched, whereas admitting to it tells the Elims that if they want to take you out, a NK is best. The point is that we want to keep the Elims guessing, though the profusion of Clever roles will interfere with this somewhat. I feel this comes from the perspective of a player who doesn't have to think about the NK, so not as Village. I'm honestly feeling a TUO lynch more and more but it's not doable this divided at lylo, and worse, TUO has that card so it's just not doable, simpliciter. (Notice that if TUO is Elim, our precise reactions here are exactly what he gains from having admitted to it.)

Unfortunately, I think I'm on Araris. If I accept Archer's reasoning that he had better ways to protect TUO and the timing of the N1 kill, feel like it'd better fit Araris's profile. That's all I've got at this point. End of the line for me.

@DrakeMarshall, just to point out since you said otherwise on page 1 of this thread - Lotus has clarified the Elim kill cannot be roleblocked, so that's a /shrug from me on the issue of your cardblocking.

That's it from me. I've been OTing until 3-4AM for nearly two solid weeks in a row and working on the unmentioned something that may or may not be the same something that Ash can't talk about. I'm dead tired and I can't think straight anymore. I'm napping and setting an alarm but in my current state, it is absolutely possible that I'll oversleep. If so, whoever who comes on gets the dubious pleasure of having to deal with this.

I'd blue that last paragraph but my policy is I don't lie about RL and requiring bluetext for RL sets a bad precedent so I'm not contributing to it. Goodnight, world.

Edited August 7, 2021 by Kasimir
fixed colour tag

[Araris Valerian he/him]

@Kasimir, I appreciate that you retracted from me for at least part of a post.

Current VC:

Araris (3): Kas, Drake, Ash

Archer: (1): Araris

Drake: (1): Archer

Okay, let's see if I can fix this. Drake seems to think I'm on a team with either Kas or Ash, which makes me wonder why he is very happy to be voting for me alongside both of them. Ash is voting for me based on a single post I made in which I arbitrarily voted for him over Archer. I don't really want to join Archer on Drake, but at this point I will. We still have an hour left in the cycle to consider things, but I know my alignment, and I'm better off trying to vote off a slightly lower suspicion than letting myself die.

Updated VC:

Araris (3): Kas, Drake, Ash

Drake: (2): Archer, Drake

Edited August 7, 2021 by Araris Valerian

[+Lotus she/her]

Quick reminder that rollover will be a hour later then normal. I will not be avalible from now until that rollover time

[Araris Valerian he/him]

@The Unknown Order, @Fabien, do you two plan on voting during LyLo?

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

Hmmm so paranoid!Drake kinda doesn’t want to try switching to Archer, but realistically it’s much to early in the cycle to contemplate vote splitting anyway.

Let the cards fall as they won’t.

[Kasimir he/him]

Alright. I'm up. Nightmares of torture and murder so that was fun. 

What the blazes is going on 

1. I have it in my notes that Ash retracted but I see he didn't. That's one abnormally stable stab vote but I don't think Araris ever answered. 

2. I just feel bad about basically both the active trains but I think I've been vocal about my TUO preference since before I went to sleep. 

Sigh. You all had to keep forcing me to redo my reads right -.-

[Araris Valerian he/him]

5 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

1. I have it in my notes that Ash retracted but I see he didn't. That's one abnormally stable stab vote but I don't think Araris ever answered. 

There wasn’t really an answer to give, since it was an arbitrary choice at the time.

[Ashbringer he/him]

I haven't seen a reason to move it.

[Kasimir he/him]

Thanks Araris. 

I don't like this and I'm just having all the worst feelings about this but I don't think I'm in a state to think this through at this point of the cycle with three minutes to go. 

Alea iacta est. 

O7 Village. It's been an exhausting one, if it's Lylo. 

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Well, I did mention having a vote manip card earlier, so I'm pretty sure we will have double deaths from the vote today.