Mid-Range Game 49: Lode of Luthadel

[Quintessential she/her]

6 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Quinn am I missing something because I thought we were good? We're just talking? because not many other people are?

Yeah, at this point we're just talking... I assumed Striker was referring to last cycle?

[Ashbringer he/him]

48 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

I mean last time it happened Illwei was elim

Actually the last two (edit: out of three) times

Edited March 19, 2021 by Ashbringer

[Archer he/him]

6 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

So...rip my extra life smh

^^^

I'm surprised I was attacked. I'd have thought because I was a potential exe candidate, they'd have gone for someone else so if the votes shifted at last minute, they wouldn't have wasted their NK. Also, as a person of interest, I might have been MLed. I guess I defended STINK, so that looks good, but they wouldn't have known his flip. Anyway, the elims were definitely on near rollover, if anyone was watching then (unlike me, who is out right now). 

I jumped on to see what was up, but am busy and won't be around until tomorrow. Based on my one minute skim, I don't think Striker has claimed yet, which he's probably doing intentionally to see if I'll claim Vin. I can think of Elim and village reasons he'd do that. I'll make it easy and just reveal that I am a thug. Surprise. I'm glad you didn't exe me. Sus on everyone who made the stink exe happen, it made little sense to me. 

Also, it'd be a fallacy, but since I can't be on the Elim team that tried to kill me, am I not now 50% less likely to be an Elim? Same with Striker. Is that how math works. Please don't kill me, I won't survive a second attack 

[StrikerEZ he/him]

4 minutes ago, Archer said:

I jumped on to see what was up, but am busy and won't be around until tomorrow. Based on my one minute skim, I don't think Striker has claimed yet, which he's probably doing intentionally to see if I'll claim Vin. I can think of Elim and village reasons he'd do that. I'll make it easy and just reveal that I am a thug. Surprise. I'm glad you didn't exe me.

I mean, I was basically claiming Thug. I was waiting to see what you did, so I could make a judgement based on what you said. I'm not sure what I think of us both being Thugs. But I also don't want to make any inferences about the distribution...but you were also really giving me bad vibes last cycle, with the stuff with you almost wanting to control what we all talked about. So, with that, and this Thug claim, I think I feel comfortable voting Archer.

[Mat he/him]

18 minutes ago, Archer said:

Anyway, the elims were definitely on near rollover, if anyone was watching then (unlike me, who is out right now).

I was almost thinking the opposite- Stink was well ahead up untill rollover, I thought. I don't really like to make reads using things like that though :P.

18 minutes ago, Archer said:

I'll make it easy and just reveal that I am a thug.

So either you're telling the truth and

1. The elims managed to hit the two (likely only) village Thugs OR
2. You're a Thug for the elim team that didn't attack you (unlikely- I don't particularly think either of the teams will have Thugs unless one has less members than the other, because of the Mistborn's Pewter.) OR
3. You're a village Thug and Striker is an enemy Mistborn (or an enemy Thug, but see above)

Or you're lying, an enemy Mistborn, and Striker is either the other enemy Mistborn (That'd actually be pretty convenient for us ) or a village Thug. (Again, or an elim Thug, but see above.)

Edit: Or either is Vin :P.

18 minutes ago, Archer said:

Sus on everyone who made the stink exe happen, it made little sense to me.

Generally agree with this.

---Ninja'd by Striker, who's post gives me a bad gut read.  Why can't this game just be easy

Though I legitimately think it might be the use of the phrase 'really gives me bad vibes' but that would 100% be a me problem.

TL;DR I'm not feeling super confident about either of them right now :P. So I might abstain from voting out of the two of them but I'll vote elsewhere. If it comes close between the two (I say this as Striker has no votes lol) I'll probably vote Archer.

I'd be interested to see if the elim teams just attack the same people again since they know that the person they attacked isn't on their team.

Edited March 19, 2021 by Matrim's Dice

[StrikerEZ he/him]

5 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

---Ninja'd by Striker, who's post gives me a bad gut read.  Why can't this game just be easy

Though I legitimately think it might be the use of the phrase 'really gives me bad vibes' but that would 100% be a me problem.

I just wanna know why that phrase gives you such a bad gut read. Almost said bad vibes instead of bad gut read

As for the rest of the post: I can't say much more than what I've already said, except to say that I was really excited to have an extra life that could protect me from inevitably getting exed at some point, but alas, twas not meant to be.  

[Mat he/him]

Just now, StrikerEZ said:

I just wanna know why that phrase gives you such a bad gut read.

You and me both  

[Biplet she/her]

8 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

-Ninja'd by Striker, who's post gives me a bad gut read

Ah yes, Mat sus of Striker. Familiarity!

I'm not confident enough voting on either Striker or Archer, really, but we'll see. I think it could be reasonable that they're both village, and one is a thug and the other is Vin but doesn't want to claim it. I'm still wary of misexeing Vin. Now if the vote gets really close... we might see a claim.

 

[Mat he/him]

Just now, Biplet said:

Now if the vote gets really close... we might see a claim.

Technically, they both claimed Thug already.

[Biplet she/her]

Just now, Matrim's Dice said:

Technically, they both claimed Thug already.

Striker only said extra life

[Mat he/him]

1 minute ago, Biplet said:

Striker only said extra life

...I guess I took this:

19 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

I mean, I was basically claiming Thug.

As a claim, though rereading that post I can see he never explicitly said he was a Thug. Huh.

[StrikerEZ he/him]

2 minutes ago, Biplet said:

Striker only said extra life

You missed me claiming Thug just a little bit ago

[Biplet she/her]

Just now, StrikerEZ said:

You missed me claiming Thug just a little bit ago

I may be stupid

[StrikerEZ he/him]

Just now, Biplet said:

I may be stupid

You're not stupid. Am I perhaps stupid for claiming Thug in thread? Mayhaps. Though I guess that just makes me and Archer both stupid.

[Mat he/him]

1 minute ago, StrikerEZ said:

You missed me claiming Thug just a little bit ago

Or never mind, I guess :P. I think the claim lies in the sentence "I don't know what I think about us both being Thugs."?

Well either way, that's two survives C1, two Thug claims. I didn't really expect any other claim though :P.

[Biplet she/her]

Just now, Matrim's Dice said:

Or never mind, I guess :P. I think the claim lies in the sentence "I don't know what I think about us both being Thugs."?

Love that we both just went in circles for no reason XD

[Liranil she/her]

32 minutes ago, Archer said:

^^^

I'm surprised I was attacked. I'd have thought because I was a potential exe candidate, they'd have gone for someone else so if the votes shifted at last minute, they wouldn't have wasted their NK. Also, as a person of interest, I might have been MLed. I guess I defended STINK, so that looks good, but they wouldn't have known his flip. Anyway, the elims were definitely on near rollover, if anyone was watching then (unlike me, who is out right now). 

I agree with Matrim that this is wrong; in fact, I'm pretty sure the fact that they tried to kill you points to the idea that the elims that voted for you weren't as active after the train on you started. 

I'm more curious as to why the elims voted these two in particular (or if it was just... everyone voted for someone different and it was RNG'd).

[StrikerEZ he/him]

Gotta love the fact that most of the second page is just me, Bip, and Mat going in circles about my claim as a Thug.

[Mat he/him]

Just now, Liranil said:

I agree with Matrim that this is wrong; in fact, I'm pretty sure the fact that they tried to kill you points to the idea that the elims that voted for you weren't as active after the train on you started. 

I guess this is somewhere we could look- as a starting point. I don't want people not on at EoD to be the reason to exe them :P. But if we see someone doing sus things that also fit into this profile I wouldn't be sad about killing them, likely. I'll look at last cycle later for something to do.

2 minutes ago, Liranil said:

I'm more curious as to why the elims voted these two in particular (or if it was just... everyone voted for someone different and it was RNG'd).

I don't really think we'll ever know that, or gain info from trying to guess  Could be discussion though, I guess.

4 minutes ago, Biplet said:

Love that we both just went in circles for no reason XD

2 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

Gotta love the fact that most of the second page is just me, Bip, and Mat going in circles about my claim as a Thug.

Absolutely! The technicality of semi-unprovable claims is important!  (Unproveable in that Striker is a Thug or a Mistborn, and we won't know which until he's dead or the game is over.)

[StrikerEZ he/him]

2 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Absolutely! The technicality of semi-unprovable claims is important!  (Unproveable in that Striker is a Thug or a Mistborn, and we won't know which until he's dead or the game is over.)

I mean, I'd prefer it to be when the game is over, as I die early a lot, but with my extra life gone now, that's not looking like it's going to happen.

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

Well, I'll once again vote on Archer none of my opinions have been changed other than I think his exe is more important since it seems likely he's a elim mistborn now.

[Ashbringer he/him]

3 minutes ago, The Unknown Order said:

Well, I'll once again vote on Archer none of my opinions have been changed other than I think his exe is more important since it seems likely he's a elim mistborn now.

... what are your opinions? I don’t think you got back to me on that.

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

Just now, Ashbringer said:

... what are your opinions? I don’t think you got back to me on that.

It got eaten twice, short story short: I don't like how he's attempting to control the thread and how similar it is to the QF where he was elim. The second post alleviated my suspicion somewhat, but it isn't really enough. I would be ok with a Striker exe considering there's a fairly likely chance that he's a e!mistborn. I'll likely go with whichever exe picks up steam.

[Archer he/him]

Liranil

Alright, I’m back on pc, but I’ll go to bed immediately after this.

An unlikely event has occurred! Time to read up on Prosecutor's fallacy (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prosecutor's_fallacy) and the debunked Meadow's law.

I didn’t hop onto today because I knew I had an extra life, so I didn’t need to be on to cast a tie-breaker vote. I did not expect it to be used up by an NK, although I suppose I should be flattered? At least one person views me as a threat (or wrong enough that the village would be misled when I flipped). That was the plan. Meta-watchers will note I made myself a bigger target than I usually do last cycle because I knew it was better I took a hit than anyone else.

The only reason I can think of why a lurcher would protect Striker is if they were their mistborn or if they were dating IRL. :eyes: This could be an indication we have a higher than average amount of protection flying around, but given how quick Striker was to claim they had ‘an extra life’, I’m willing to believe they’re a Thug or Mistborn.

Like bip said, he could very easily be Vin, and I want to see what he does once he knows what's happened. -Striker

Here they soft-claim non-mistborn. Bold of them not to leave their options open. You know, at the start of this post, I was thinking of offering myself up as the kill today, then Striker the next. That way this coincidence would be explained before exlo. I’m torn, because if we’ve caught a mistborn, that’s awesome. If we haven’t, we’re going to waste two days of kills, assuming the elims don’t help us out. The one thing I don’t want to do is leave this at a tight vote that can be easily manipulated. I prefer predictable results.

I agree with Matrim that this is wrong; in fact, I'm pretty sure the fact that they tried to kill you points to the idea that the elims that voted for you weren't as active after the train on you started. -Liranil

Going purely by memory, I collected a few votes at the end of the first IRL day, around when I voted Quinn. After that, it swung to Stink, then back to me. My read remains that the elims are active and had a village read on me, perhaps because several people like Mat said they had a village read on me. (Side note: would someone bored like to go through the thread to find any signals that directed the kills? Stuff like people village reading me of Striker, or voting on us etc.) Or, I hit a vein when I voted Striker, who is a mistborn.

Had I not had an elim read on Striker going in, I think I would have been happy to let their protection slide. I think the thread is leaning towards exing me first, so when I flip Thug, is the plan to exe Striker, thinking that the odds of him being e-mistborn or e-thug are greater than him being v-thug? I’m not sure the logic there quite checks out, but hey, I’ll be dead.

I make a point to not vote on the first cycle. I'd be frustrated if I got voted off on the first cycle for no reason, so yeah. Also, sorry for not posting earlier. I was a bit busy. -Randby

Noble sentiment, but if no one pointed any fingers, we wouldn’t get anywhere.

Liranil gets to be my first village read / Otherwise Liranil is in my trusts -Illwei

I’m unsure why Liranil would be trusted. They had a very conservative C1 that boiled down to them being willing to test others’ theories. Elims need to get mis-exes somehow this game, might as well eb through sheeping.

She said she'd be fine with voting anyone except her- elims know their Mistborn and thus aren't fine with exeing them. -Matrim

Is it because of this? Because if their mistborn wasn’t up for exe, or they are an elim mistborn, as far as they know, their vote wouldn’t matter. Stink and I are villagers, so elim!Liranil wouldn’t care if her vote pushed one of us into the fire. Otherwise, her vote wouldn’t likely result in an exe. Elims can feign nonchalance. If someone said ‘oh you should vote XXX then’ and they really didn’t want to, they could easily just say, ‘no, I don’t trust you!’. I have an elim read on Liranil right now, which is saying something because I know this game has a higher than usual number of elims, but I have more village reads than usual… and very few elim ones. Probably because the elims are less coordinated

Archer's response to my STINK vote did sound forced (though I misinterpreted that originally as being an attempt to protect a teammate) -Quinn

Just want to highlight that Stink was not my elim teammate. I suspect I’ll need to repeat that several times this round.

Archer was an exe candidate for much of the cycle, so I'm ruling out Lurcher for him entirely--nobody tries to NK someone who might die anyway -Quinn

Agreed.

I'm... pretty sure Pizza just isn't sure what's going on lol -Quinn

They remind me of Breaker. Self-voting is generally a bad strategy. If you’re a villager, you should want to live, unless your flip produces some information.

Also, I’m trying really hard not to skim over every time Illwei and Quinn quote each other, but it’s late and that’s getting hard so sorry to both of you.

It got eaten twice, short story short: I don't like how he's attempting to control the thread and how similar it is to the QF where he was elim -TUO

I’m actually okay with you making this observation, because it’s true. It’s intentional. The goal was to emulate my behaviour from then enough that people would read me as an elim for being too aggressively villager, which is something I can’t be exed for. It seemed like a win-win in my head when I thought about it. At worst, people would miss it and I’d end up taking a hit, as is my job as the thug.

That said, I'd rather not be known as a 'thread-controller'. I recognize that that's probably not exactly what you meant as short post equals less nuance, but I don't feel like I'm that domineering. So any suggestions for how I can improve are welcomed. 

[Ashbringer he/him]

13 minutes ago, The Unknown Order said:

It got eaten twice, short story short: I don't like how he's attempting to control the thread and how similar it is to the QF where he was elim. The second post alleviated my suspicion somewhat, but it isn't really enough. I would be ok with a Striker exe considering there's a fairly likely chance that he's a e!mistborn. I'll likely go with whichever exe picks up steam.

1 minute ago, Archer said:

I’m actually okay with you making this observation, because it’s true. It’s intentional. The goal was to emulate my behaviour from then enough that people would read me as an elim for being too aggressively villager, which is something I can’t be exed for. It seemed like a win-win in my head when I thought about it. At worst, people would miss it and I’d end up taking a hit, as is my job as the thug.

That said, I'd rather not be known as a 'thread-controller'. I recognize that that's probably not exactly what you meant as short post equals less nuance, but I don't feel like I'm that domineering. So any suggestions for how I can improve are welcomed. 

Uh...

Guys...

Archer was the GM of the QF...

 

... oh. Wait, do you mean the Reckoners one? Well, I didn't play that one... but from what I see of Archer they do the big posts fairly frequently.

... wait, you didn't play that one either.

AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH