Mid-Range Game 49: Lode of Luthadel

[Liranil she/her]

13 minutes ago, Illwei said:

All we have is connections in this game, Imo. so, ya know :P. See something Say Something :P.

Good point. It still feels a little tin-foily/too convenient to me but we'll find out! XD

@TJ Shade: Can I get a VC?

[Ashbringer he/him]

... oh dear that's a lot.

On the whole Archer/Striker thing... for one thing, I've never taken a stats class in my life, so the most I know is Punnet Squares two coin flips makes a 25% chance of two heads, 25% chance of two tails, and 50% chance one of each. I've heard of the Monty Hall thing before, but 1) entirely do not understand why it works and 2) don't really know how it applies besides the fact we've got multiple variables... We know they're not Elims together, but both could be on separate Elim teams, and depending on surrounding behavior very much could be. So I don't think probability's the best place to look for alignment here. 

Either the Elims hit two players with extra lives at random - which isn't too outlandish considering probably a quarter of us have them and the Elims are shooting in the dark with their votekill - OR something made the Elims believe that Archer/Striker were Mistborn or other valuable kill targets. I'm much more inclined to believe the latter, particularly with Archer's interactions, but I'm not discounting the former.

Another worry is if the Village is insistent that the Elims will likely take them both out this turn, then the Elims will then avoid hitting them. They might be missing out on killing a Mistborn, but it also will cause a discussion black hole that have plagued the last several games (Dannex in QF50, Striker in LG73, sort-of-Maill in LG74, etc). Plus... you know I won't say that  So if we need the alignment of one of them (probably Archer here, as they've interacted with more players), we should probably vote for them. Vin can likely save herself with double zinc / double brass, Elims not so much. But we should also look at other options than those two... and in the meantime, just... don't Lurch either of them?

 

 

Sorry if that bounced around a lot, I sort of wrote those three things separately. Also I need to go study for / take a test, so see you in like 5 hours.

Also, since it could be relevant: @Liranil, any reason you didn't move from STINK to Archer at the end of last cycle? 

[Liranil she/her]

3 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Also, since it could be relevant: @Liranil, any reason you didn't move from STINK to Archer at the end of last cycle? 

Because I started considering it just before rollover (about five minutes or so lol) and ran out of time while second guessing whether I should switch or not.

[Quintessential she/her]

1 hour ago, Liranil said:

@TJ Shade: Can I get a VC?

Here:

Archer (3): Striker, TUO, Whysper
Liranil (2): Archer, Quinn
Exp (1): Liranil

Would note that we're more than halfway through the cycle and those are the only six people who've voted (out of 17!)

[Illwei]

Just now, Quintessential said:

more than halfway through the cycle

lies

[Quintessential she/her]

1 minute ago, Illwei said:

lies

...no? this one started at 2pm my time yesterday. It's now 5pm (edit: rounding down--it's more like 5:30 but whatever) my time. It's been 27 hours, therefore more than half the cycle. : P

Edited March 19, 2021 by Quintessential

[Illwei]

Just now, Quintessential said:

...no? this one started at 2pm my time yesterday. It's now 5pm my time. It's been 27 hours, therefore more than half the cycle. : P

no

has to be lies

not possible

[Quintessential she/her]

Hmmm Liranil Gears @Gears you've been awfully quiet... explain to me why I shouldn't vote you  

[Mat he/him]

27 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

Hmmm Liranil Gears @Gears you've been awfully quiet... explain to me why I shouldn't vote you  

:/ Quinn the more time goes on the more I’m not liking your posts :P. Or your vote hopping :P.

[Quintessential she/her]

35 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

:/ Quinn the more time goes on the more I’m not liking your posts :P. Or your vote hopping :P.

*sigh* in case it wasn't obvious (apparently it wasn't : P) I'm doing it because I'm trying, apparently in vain, to generate discussion. As I said earlier, 6 people have voted. Six. We're well into the cycle and a good third of the group hasn't even posted yet. We can't get anywhere like this, so I'm trying to shake things up and give us something to actually talk about. Unfortunately, it's not working 

[+Whysper she/her]

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

1 hour ago, Quintessential said:

Hmmm Liranil Gears @Gears you've been awfully quiet... explain to me why I shouldn't vote you  

:/ Quinn the more time goes on the more I’m not liking your posts :P. Or your vote hopping :P.

While I'm not sure what to say about some other posts of Quinn's, I think this was a fair switch. First, it is fine to move around vote attention when we really aren't sure yet on a good Elim read. Second, I think Gears in particular is good to bring focus back on. Not just for being quiet since there are other inactives as well. But also for the fact that he decided to give advice to help out Elims. That's a more concrete example of anti-Village behavior.

 

[PizzaPower55 he/him]

Archer

[Illwei]

I think vote hopping is fine, and honestly I think there should be more vote hopping if you're someone who votes at the beginning of the cycle. Because otherwise you're not really helping the village- not from that vote, but from the assumption that you would be staying on that person because you're in a tunnel or whatnot.

Gears

[Mat he/him]

Mostly it was the switch off Liranil after being so insistent before.

I’d rather Archer die than Gears. 

[Ashbringer he/him]

Spoiler

Spoiler

Also applies to my communications in general... sigh

I have a little time, but still have an assignment left before I'm free for the weekend.

Essentially there's two places we can look. One is if Archer and/or Striker flip over as Elim!Mistborn (or even just Elims, although that muddies things a little).

Elim!Mistborn!Archer links to Liranil, Illwei, TUO, maybe Tani? Probably not Quinn. Would explain hit on Striker, although exactly what that means for Striker I'm not sure.

Elim!Mistborn!Striker links to less... Illwei for the early poke, but I doubt it. I'd have to look at more communications.

 

I trust Quinn and Mat, but not... together. Illwei not so much thanks to her pseudo-defense of Archer. Gears has been NAI, I think... Elim predictions is always something that he's done but in this game it is a bit more problematic. Tani feels good, and Liranil at least feels genuine. Her not voting for Archer isn't quite incriminating enough (I don't exactly have the best track record on that... sorry Gears... and Quinn...).

I'll vote Gears for a reads list or other thoughts. If he comes to post, I'll probably move to Archer. There's enough people linked to him that I'd rather be sure about getting his alignment.

Edited March 19, 2021 by Ashbringer
That was too many spaces...

[Illwei]

My question is why did the Elims want to kill Archer, and, yeah. is that reasoning enough for them to want to kill him again. Our discussing it makes it less likely, but still. Why would we kill off someone who, from the Elims perspective, was a good kill?

EDIT:

4 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

I'll vote Gears for a reads list or other thoughts. If he comes to post, I'll probably move to Archer. There's enough people linked to him that I'd rather be sure about getting his alignment.

Who does Gears link to? you mentioned some people that you think Archer links to, but who does Gears link to?

4 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Illwei not so much thanks to her pseudo-defense of Archer

my...do you mean my outright defence of Archer?

Edited March 19, 2021 by Illwei

[Quintessential she/her]

6 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Who does Gears link to? you mentioned some people that you think Archer links to, but who does Gears link to?

I believe Ash meant that Archer links to people, and that he'll switch to Archer once Gears posts (assuming Gears posts).

[Ashbringer he/him]

3 minutes ago, Illwei said:

My question is why did the Elims want to kill Archer, and, yeah. is that reasoning enough for them to want to kill him again. Our discussing it makes it less likely, but still. Why would we kill off someone who, from the Elims perspective, was a good kill?

EDIT:

Who does Gears link to? you mentioned some people that you think Archer links to, but who does Gears link to?

Someone mentioned that Archer's vote on Striker could be seen as a godfather-esque directive for Team!Archer to attack Striker... it could have gone the other way where Team!Striker decided to defend Striker by attacking the one person who suspected them. Not exactly subtle, but it would explain it better than a random attack... it could also imply Elim!Mistborn!Archer <===> Elim!Mistborn!Striker. 

Gears doesn't really link to anyone. That's the thing I want to see if I can change - at least get some reads if not direct votes or pseudo communications. Archer links to a lot of people, so his alignment is more valuable to learn, but if Gears is actively attempting not to interact with anyone than that's a good reason for (at least initial) suspicion. (Or, what Quinn said )

[Mat he/him]

I don’t think Gears is actively not interacting. Doesn’t seem like something he would do.

[+Whysper she/her]

3 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Someone mentioned that Archer's vote on Striker could be seen as a godfather-esque directive for Team!Archer to attack Striker... it could have gone the other way where Team!Striker decided to defend Striker by attacking the one person who suspected them. Not exactly subtle, but it would explain it better than a random attack... it could also imply Elim!Mistborn!Archer <===> Elim!Mistborn!Striker. 

Oh, I hadn't thought of it the other way around, but that also makes good sense. When Elims really have no particular clue who to attack, I could definitely see them just deciding to go with someone voting against their Mistborn.

[Quintessential she/her]

lol so if Liranil is NKd this cycle then we'll know Archer is definitely an elim Mistborn

(Current VC:
Archer (5): Striker, TUO, Whysper, Pizza, Matrim
Liranil (1): Archer
Experience (1): Liranil
Gears (3): Quinn, Illwei, Ash)

Edit: no the VC is not supposed to be some prod for something to happen, I'm just explaining my comment about Liranil : P 

Edited March 20, 2021 by Quintessential

[+Whysper she/her]

5 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

lol so if Liranil is NKd this cycle then we'll know Archer is definitely an elim Mistborn

I assume you are joking since now that we've pointed it out, if would be silly for them to do this and out their Mistborn. So if Liranil is NK'd, it's maybe more likely the other Elim team does this to bring suspicion on Archer.

EDIT: Though to clarify, not saying that Archer can't be Elim. Just that a NK on Liranil is NAI as far as Archer.

Edited March 20, 2021 by Whysper

[Quintessential she/her]

1 minute ago, Whysper said:

I assume you are joking since now that we've pointed it out, if would be silly for them to do this and out their Mistborn. So if Liranil is NK'd, it's maybe more likely the other Elim team does this to bring suspicion on Archer.

EDIT: Though to clarify, not saying that Archer can't be Elim. Just that a NK on Liranil is NAI as far as Archer.

Yes I was joking : P 

[Illwei]

Watch as the other team doesn't attack Liranil because she's their Mistborn :thonk:

[Biplet she/her]

55 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

lol so if Liranil is NKd this cycle then we'll know Archer is definitely an elim Mistborn

How so?