Mid-Range Game 49: Lode of Luthadel

[---]

2 minutes ago, Random Bystander said:

Luckily for me, not too many people have posted on this one yet, so I won't have an insane amount of reading to do.)

Hurry! time to add three pages while she's not looking!

9 minutes ago, Biplet said:

And again, the Whysper death feels out of nowhere. I’m with Illwei, surprised she isn’t dead yet lol. Not that I suspect her, but it seems like everyone else and their mothers do??

I mean I don't get the Gears kill either? ...especially when. He. He was tied last cycle. so. ??. I have to assume RNG or redirect there? I mean, I don't have to assume it. but. yeah. (edit: just read your post. Would make sense for him to be the cett kill/Tani's kill with that line of reasoning)

I mean not that I'm suspected, but I was up on D3 as a countertrain to Mat, and then Tani tried to start it up again yesterday. Perhaps looking back maybe someone who supported the me kill on D3 and then didn't talk about it at all the next day?

I mean, I still think you're a Straff, but- :P.

I think the villagers here are Ash, Gears, Pizza, (and one of Randby/TUO, but that's hm). I'm pretty much impartial to who else we kill but more wanting to kill Suspected Cetts because there's two left of them and three Straffs, so unless something goes terribly wrong-

But also this is strange because i mean I feel outnumbered already and it's messing me up like

10 people. 5 village, 3 Straff, 2 Cett.

Okay so not outnumbered but I still feel outnumbered. aaaa

[Biplet]

5 minutes ago, Illwei said:

I mean, I still think you're a Straff, but- :P.

Bc I voted on STINK D1?

[---]

2 minutes ago, Biplet said:

Bc I voted on STINK D1?

Because your connections with Striker, but as I said, you naturally have connections with striker, him being your boyfriend and whatnot :P. So you're a tentative Straff but I'd be okay subbing you out for TUO or Randby depending on other things.

[Biplet]

4 minutes ago, Illwei said:

you naturally have connections with striker, him being your boyfriend and whatnot :P.

Lmao I’ve joked with him that he’s my “SE mentor” because I still have to ask him questions about terms and whatnot. I’ll readily admit that his vote on STINK probably had some influence over my own vote, but that’s not the reason why I voted for him. Does that make sense?

[---]

Yeah I went back to quote things and I think I might have been hallucinating :P.

Idk. Again, it wasn't to do with your vote on Stink at all, but with the interactions you had with Striker :P.

[Gears]

How could you, whichever elim team happened to attack me? Also, how could you not kill the Wei? I still suspect the Wei of being Straff. Cetts, you have failed me. If you were the ones who attacked me, I am triply disappointed. If the Straff were the ones to kill me, then I'm only doubly disappointed. However, the Wei's continued existence is a failing on your part. Whysper had left no impression on me in the slightest, so this is possibly a random, a scan, or a redirect. My own near-death reinforces my suspicion of the Wei since I cannot conjure a reason why I would be killed [plentiful suspicion] save for my continued push of Wei murder. [Well, there is that other reason, but that's not that important...] My brilliant plan to not die predicated on not dying ever, so that's ruined. Should I reveal all? I feel like it's over. I depart for slumber, so scream at me, and I shall respond on the morrow.

My incomplete CTRL-F of Striker nearly died when C4 was locked, but I saved it. It can be found here. There was a conclusion in there about Taniel being elim, but that's outdated and proven correct. 

Spoiler

C1

Spoiler

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  On 3/16/2021 at 4:11 PM, Quintessential said:

even though the last time it happened, it was right?  

Alas, though your conclusion was technically right, the reasoning was wrong, and will lead you astray more often than not if you continue to follow it

but oop guess I'm an Elim again this time too. welp.

  On 3/16/2021 at 4:11 PM, Quintessential said:

A. This makes it harder for them too

How? because they can accidentally vote eachother out? this doesn't exactly help them but their lack of coordination and TMI is a benefit to them, and I stand by that. They vote someone out? they're down one, but they've gone deeper.

  On 3/16/2021 at 4:11 PM, Quintessential said:

B. there will be other tells, though.

Besides the Mistborn? I'd rather not rely on just people defending their mistborn, but /shrug. there isn't anything else. I don't like that, and it's going to make it hard. So yeah. Mistborns are the "other tells" but that's basically it.

  On 3/16/2021 at 4:11 PM, Quintessential said:

Right, if they got really unlucky they might even accidentally NK one of their own. But that's... probably too much to hope for.

nope:

  On 3/9/2021 at 11:20 AM, TJ Shade said:

If the player with the highest votes is a member of their faction, the player with the second highest votes is killed instead, and so on.

  On 3/16/2021 at 4:11 PM, Quintessential said:

I think it's fine to an extent, but seriously, it doesn't help us to talk about how the elims might theoretically find one another so please just refrain XD talking about who the elims will vote for/kill is less dangerous, since, again, they don't know who each other all are.

If you have a theory about how the Elims might find eachother than keep it to yourself until you think you see it happen. I think talking about who you think they're going to kill is just completely useless, not...Harmful. I don't remember anyone mentioning talking about this so ??? just kinda a strange thing to talk about in the first place so???

  On 3/16/2021 at 4:11 PM, Quintessential said:

*for legal reasons I'd like to clarify that this is not a real Soother claim. Interested parties see LG74 for details.

Gottit. You're a soother :P.

Striker

From Illwei. A poke vote on a person. Could be just a poke, could be random. Noted

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Game two and I am already confused! Though, to be fair, this feels a bit more complex than the last one .

  On 3/16/2021 at 4:27 PM, Illwei said:

Striker

Mans hasn't even spoken yet :sad_cowboy:

Biplet. Commentary about existence. Discarded.

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Variel watched the day's events closely. It seemed that Straff and Cett had decided to come for Luthadel. Well, he couldn't have that happening in his city, now could he?

~

Hello! I'm alive. Today was rough, and I've only just now had time to go through and read the thread. Some thoughts I had, in no particular order:

• Not a fan of telling players how to play the game, whether that's telling them not to lie or to avoid talking about certain subjects that might help the elims. Not only is it perfectly valid to lie as a villager, it can sometimes even be beneficial as well, if the LG is anything to show us. Plus, the elims are already thinking about every way they might figure out who their teammates are. It's not like anything that's put in the thread will be new to them. Sure, if someone does a lot of talking about how the elims might coordinate, you can start side eying them, but I'm not a fan of preemptively telling players to avoid discussing something they might want to.
• To Vin: avoid claiming like the plague. The mistborns in this game are probably more powerful in general this game overall, because (besides Zane for most of the time) they can choose the metals they want to use. Having that choice is a great plus for the village, even if you can't kill anyone. 
• To village scanners: please don't out Vin. The elims will all go after her if she's been outed, and they can be fairly certain she'll die as both teams will probably go for her, double hitting her.
• @Illwei That vote's pretty fair, I'll give you that. 

I feel like I'm forgetting something, but don't know what. It probably wasn't important. 

Anyway, testing something to help bip out:

  Hide contents

Striker. Interacts with the Wei's poke. The opinions aren't especially implicatory. 

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  On 3/16/2021 at 9:48 PM, StrikerEZ said:

Anyway, testing something to help bip out:

please tell me what you did and why you and bip are magical and why your emojis don't have the dJDKFHDSKJH border around them

  On 3/16/2021 at 9:48 PM, StrikerEZ said:

Not a fan of telling players how to play the game, whether that's telling them not to lie or to avoid talking about certain subjects that might help the elims.

  On 3/16/2021 at 9:48 PM, StrikerEZ said:

To Vin: avoid claiming like the plague

haha. but I second. but also if you're about to voted out then /shrug I see no downsides.

  On 3/16/2021 at 9:48 PM, StrikerEZ said:

@Illwei That vote's pretty fair, I'll give you that. 

:thinking;

Illwei. Reasonable commentary on a semi-flawed opinion. Discarded.

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 On 3/16/2021 at 9:48 PM, StrikerEZ said:

Anyway, testing something to help bip out:

  Reveal hidden contents

 

I've been smote

Bip. Banter. Discarded.

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On 3/16/2021 at 9:50 PM, Illwei said:

haha. but I second. but also if you're about to voted out then /shrug I see no downsides.

....how do I always have some sort of very obvious contradiction in my first posts???

  On 3/16/2021 at 9:50 PM, Illwei said:

please tell me what you did and why you and bip are magical and why your emojis don't have the dJDKFHDSKJH border around them

it's the power of our love for each other, obviously. 

(for those not aware, me and Bip are dating)

Striker. Responses. No connections.

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On 3/16/2021 at 7:43 PM, Archer said:

Quinn agreed with me a lot in their posts so far, so I worry they're trying to pocket me. Quinn

I don't really love this reasoning- I mean, if you made good points you can expect people to agree with you. If people don't agree with you D1, chances are that's where their vote is going. So I'm not really sure where this is coming from. Though I'll only flag you for now because the rest of your posts have seemed village to me.

Striker's post reads village to me. I... really don't know what to think about that :P.

Mateo. We know they aren't connected. Discarded.

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On 3/16/2021 at 10:16 PM, Matrim's Dice said:

Striker's post reads village to me. I... really don't know what to think about that :P.

obviously he's evil

Wei. Banter that turned out to be true. Noted.

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On 3/16/2021 at 10:26 PM, Illwei said:

obviously he's evil

Well with my history

But I also don’t want to make assumptions based on meta which I already said I’m gonna try not to rely on especially in this case where I know it likely will be unreliable. But that turns into an IKYK with myself.

So ignoring it is. Playing by reads this game, Striker’s slight village. Until I have a reason to doubt that.

Mateo. Obviously, Matrim's reads are just always wrong. Discarded.

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On 3/16/2021 at 9:48 PM, StrikerEZ said:

• To Vin: avoid claiming like the plague. The mistborns in this game are probably more powerful in general this game overall, because (besides Zane for most of the time) they can choose the metals they want to use. Having that choice is a great plus for the village, even if you can't kill anyone. 
• To village scanners: please don't out Vin. The elims will all go after her if she's been outed, and they can be fairly certain she'll die as both teams will probably go for her, double hitting her.

... we should probably make one of our D1 Talking Points TM on what we should do if a Seeker finds a Mistborn, because if a Mistborn's outed there's a 2/3 chance you take out a really powerful Eliminator role and a 1/3 chance that you take out the most powerful and most Village role in the game.

Zane's a bit easier to prove as Zane (both from the random metals and the fact Zane can theoretically use the same metal twice in a row), but because Seekers can't see Atium/Duralumin then Gneordin and Vin are essentially indistinguishable... unless we force the Mistborn to burn their Atium to check action inputs, which Gneordin couldn't pass but Zane could. But then we're in "forcing people to do things isn't fun" territory. I think if Vin used her Duralumin on a Rioting, she could prove herself as Vin, as Zane would need to roll the 1/7 chance to get Zinc, but that wastes a very potent resource and can get messed up by Coinshots.

Any one else have ideas?

Ash. A reasonable response to points. Discarded.

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On 3/16/2021 at 10:16 PM, Matrim's Dice said:

Striker's post reads village to me. I... really don't know what to think about that :P.

  On 3/16/2021 at 10:26 PM, Illwei said:

obviously he's evil

  On 3/16/2021 at 10:29 PM, Matrim's Dice said:

Well with my history

  On 3/16/2021 at 10:29 PM, Matrim's Dice said:

But I also don’t want to make assumptions based on meta which I already said I’m gonna try not to rely on especially in this case where I know it likely will be unreliable. But that turns into an IKYK with myself.

So ignoring it is. Playing by reads this game, Striker’s slight village. Until I have a reason to doubt that.

Okay, seriously though, thanks for this. As much fun as it is to joke about the meta with me and my tendency to be read as elim, it does get tiring after awhile. I've died every game since I've returned this last time, besides for the AG, though that doesn't count as no one knew it was me. 

  On 3/16/2021 at 10:51 PM, Ashbringer said:

... we should probably make one of our D1 Talking Points TM on what we should do if a Seeker finds a Mistborn, because if a Mistborn's outed there's a 2/3 chance you take out a really powerful Eliminator role and a 1/3 chance that you take out the most powerful and most Village role in the game.

Zane's a bit easier to prove as Zane (both from the random metals and the fact Zane can theoretically use the same metal twice in a row), but because Seekers can't see Atium/Duralumin then Gneordin and Vin are essentially indistinguishable... unless we force the Mistborn to burn their Atium to check action inputs, which Gneordin couldn't pass but Zane could. But then we're in "forcing people to do things isn't fun" territory. I think if Vin used her Duralumin on a Rioting, she could prove herself as Vin, as Zane would need to roll the 1/7 chance to get Zinc, but that wastes a very potent resource and can get messed up by Coinshots.

Any one else have ideas?

I mean, personally, I'd rather our seeker, if we have one, avoid outing the mistborn to begin with. They can keep this knowledge handy, for if the player in question starts seeming fishy, but I'd prefer if we avoid the conundrum of possibly killing Vin, or giving the elims the chance to kill Vin altogether. 

That's not what you're really asking about. I think you're asking about what we should do if the seeker does out a mistborn. In that scenario, I say we avoid exing the player. Unless a mistborn has already died, there's too low of a chance, for my tastes, that the outed mistborn is Vin. I don't know what to do long term for an outed mistborn, as the outing is a death sentence. Either the elims go after the mistborn (because it's either Vin or the other elim team's mistborn, which helps them), or they survive and become a discussion black hole that eventually gets them exed, whether or not they're an elim.

Striker. Connections difficult. Obviously in hindsight not wanting outed Mistborns to be X-ed seems to be a product of being an e!M. [Sidenote: If you scan a Mistborn now, DO NOT out them because all other Mistborns are dead.]

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On 3/16/2021 at 10:51 PM, Ashbringer said:

Any one else have ideas?

I'm with Striker in that we just leave them be- if a Mistborn is outed I'd say there's a high high high likelihood of them being attacked- one of the two elim factions will either way, likely both if it's Vin. So they're dead if they're outed, and the elims will just do it for us so we don't have to think about it.

Mateo. Of course the other e!M would agree.

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On 3/16/2021 at 11:20 PM, StrikerEZ said:

That's not what you're really asking about. I think you're asking about what we should do if the seeker does out a mistborn. In that scenario, I say we avoid exing the player. Unless a mistborn has already died, there's too low of a chance, for my tastes, that the outed mistborn is Vin. I don't know what to do long term for an outed mistborn, as the outing is a death sentence. Either the elims go after the mistborn (because it's either Vin or the other elim team's mistborn, which helps them), or they survive and become a discussion black hole that eventually gets them exed, whether or not they're an elim.

... too low of a chance that they're Vin? Assuming no Mistborns are down, it's a 1/3 chance, and it's not going to get any higher. Statistically exeing a Mistborn will kill an Elim the majority of the time. So isn't that exactly why we should exe them, or at least consider them much more suspicious?

If a Mistborn's already dead all of this kind of goes out the window. If Zane/Gneordin are gone, it's suddenly much easier for Vin to prove herself through a Mistborn metal/specific metal. If Vin's gone... goodbye Mistborn.

... also, coming right off of the LG I'm a little adverse to trying to predict what the Elims will do 

Ash. Notes the Freudian slip. Good commentary. Discarded. [Could be one-way distancing, I'm more inclined to think that Ash is just being reasonable.]

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On 3/17/2021 at 0:53 AM, Ashbringer said:

... too low of a chance that they're Vin? Assuming no Mistborns are down, it's a 1/3 chance, and it's not going to get any higher. Statistically exeing a Mistborn will kill an Elim the majority of the time. So isn't that exactly why we should exe them, or at least consider them much more suspicious?

If a Mistborn's already dead all of this kind of goes out the window. If Zane/Gneordin are gone, it's suddenly much easier for Vin to prove herself through a Mistborn metal/specific metal. If Vin's gone... goodbye Mistborn.

... also, coming right off of the LG I'm a little adverse to trying to predict what the Elims will do 

......god I need to pay more attention to what I'm typing.  I meant that the odds are too high that she might be the outed mistborn, if one is outed, in my opinion. Like, I know 1/3 isn't that high, but it's still too high for my tastes.

And yeah, another mistborn being dead before this happens does change things. Once Vin dies, we just exe any outed mistborn.

Yeah, that's fair. 

Striker. Yes, cultivate your words so you seem as village as can be. Discarded.

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On 3/16/2021 at 9:48 PM, StrikerEZ said:

Variel watched the day's events closely. It seemed that Straff and Cett had decided to come for Luthadel. Well, he couldn't have that happening in his city, now could he?

~

Hello! I'm alive. Today was rough, and I've only just now had time to go through and read the thread. Some thoughts I had, in no particular order:

• Not a fan of telling players how to play the game, whether that's telling them not to lie or to avoid talking about certain subjects that might help the elims. Not only is it perfectly valid to lie as a villager, it can sometimes even be beneficial as well, if the LG is anything to show us. Plus, the elims are already thinking about every way they might figure out who their teammates are. It's not like anything that's put in the thread will be new to them. Sure, if someone does a lot of talking about how the elims might coordinate, you can start side eying them, but I'm not a fan of preemptively telling players to avoid discussing something they might want to.
• To Vin: avoid claiming like the plague. The mistborns in this game are probably more powerful in general this game overall, because (besides Zane for most of the time) they can choose the metals they want to use. Having that choice is a great plus for the village, even if you can't kill anyone. 
• To village scanners: please don't out Vin. The elims will all go after her if she's been outed, and they can be fairly certain she'll die as both teams will probably go for her, double hitting her.
• @Illwei That vote's pretty fair, I'll give you that. 

To clarify, everyone is welcome to use their own playstyles and engage how they like. My goal isn't to intimidate people, only to be transparent about how I will react and make people aware of the risks of what they are doing. 

See below about an exception; Vin should claim if a mistborn is outed. 

I can't help but feel that @ ing Illwei is an attempt to get the poke moved off. That's a similar response to what I'd give if I were an elim.

Archer [snipped]. They are dead. Discarded.

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On 3/16/2021 at 11:20 PM, StrikerEZ said:

I mean, personally, I'd rather our seeker, if we have one, avoid outing the mistborn to begin with. They can keep this knowledge handy, for if the player in question starts seeming fishy, but I'd prefer if we avoid the conundrum of possibly killing Vin, or giving the elims the chance to kill Vin altogether. 

That's not what you're really asking about. I think you're asking about what we should do if the seeker does out a mistborn. In that scenario, I say we avoid exing the player. Unless a mistborn has already died, there's too low of a chance, for my tastes, that the outed mistborn is Vin. I don't know what to do long term for an outed mistborn, as the outing is a death sentence.

 

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What you don't want to do is sit on some information and then die with it from one of the three kills going around each cycle. So you'll need to use your best judgement about what to say when, scanners. My advice is to announce any mistborn you find, but it's up to you. Good luck. 

Really don't do this. It might be Vin, and we'd REALLY rather keep Vin alive. The Elims know their own Mistborns but NOT anyone else's, so any Mistborn announced would be NKd as soon as they were announced. And probably the Scanner too.

Like I've said earlier, please use your role for as long as you feel safe and then share your findings. But also PLEASE avoid outing Vin in your findings. If you're sure the Mistborn you know is Elim!Mistborn, then absolutely out them - and hope you're not wrong. It's a logical assumption that any Mistborns outed will be NKd by one elim team or the other.

                                                               (Also logic and warning people is not the same as elim signaling...)

Look, Striker agreed with me 13 hours ago.

  On 3/16/2021 at 9:48 PM, StrikerEZ said:

Some thoughts I had, in no particular order:

• To Vin: avoid claiming like the plague. The mistborns in this game are probably more powerful in general this game overall, because (besides Zane for most of the time) they can choose the metals they want to use. Having that choice is a great plus for the village, even if you can't kill anyone. 
• To village scanners: please don't out Vin. The elims will all go after her if she's been outed, and they can be fairly certain she'll die as both teams will probably go for her, double hitting her.

So unless you like dead Vins... and dead selves...

Taniel. Agrees with Striker about keeping Mistborn hidden. Noted.

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Striker.

 I propose we put votes/retractions at the start of posts, to help the GM out. 

Welcome to the madness, Whysper.

I’ve been trying to think of how elim!me would signal to my mistborn that I’m on their team. Voting for them is not a strategy I would consider. It seems like a good way to get read as a threat, not an ally.

I realize I’ve been connected to Stink, and this probably won’t help my case, but I see little reason to sus them. They haven’t said anything objectionable, and the alleged signalling that’s occurring is so blatant that it can’t be real. My pocketing comment looks bad, but I’d like to believe elim!me would have joined a CW rather than take a shot at Quinn the way I did. On that front, I’d say if the Stink thing bugs you, vote who you think is their teammate, not Stink themselves. It’s Quinn and I who have been sus, not Stink.

Taniel has an interesting playstyle. High effort, low originality; their biggest posts have been rehashing established content. That said, I think they’ve found their groove now, and they have more confidence joking about being an elim than I think a real elim would.

Also, putting it out there, I’m reading Quinn as village. My preferred exes are Striker, Gears, and Flyingbooks, in that order. Striker seemed a little too eager to shed Illwei’s poke while being casual about it, and I didn’t really agree with much they said in the rest of that post either. It’s all defendable, but in context, it felt off, so that’s where my vote is going. Gut read, wooo.

Sorry, gotta go, otherwise I'd read the recent posts more closely. 

Archer. Wants to X Striker. They are dead. Discarded.

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Well, I sure missed a lot. 

First off, as this is the last thing I read and therefore freshest in my mind: @Archer I saw your first comment about the Illwei thing earlier today but had to go to rehearsal before I could respond. I tagged her in that post because I was too lazy to go back and quote her. 

Also, Stink. From what I've been reading, this makes the most sense. Everything with that Stink/Archer/Quinn interaction makes me think that there might be a mistborn in there somewhere, and I think Stink's the most likely of them.

Anyone got a vote count?

Striker. Nothing really stands out. Discarded.

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On 3/17/2021 at 6:05 PM, Ashbringer said:

Next game I'm making a bingo card.

What’s gonna be on the bingo card? I figure Illwei v Quinn in the thread will be the free space in the middle? 

Striker. Banter. Discarded.

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  On 3/17/2021 at 6:06 PM, StrikerEZ said:

  On 3/17/2021 at 6:05 PM, Ashbringer said:

Next game I'm making a bingo card.

What’s gonna be on the bingo card? I figure Illwei v Quinn in the thread will be the free space in the middle? 

ooh

Illwei. Banter. Discarded.

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  On 3/17/2021 at 6:06 PM, StrikerEZ said:

What’s gonna be on the bingo card? I figure Illwei v Quinn in the thread will be the free space in the middle? 

Maybe not the Free Space - I do need to think of a few other things first - but that will indeed be making an appearance 

Ash. Banter. Discarded.

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On 3/17/2021 at 6:09 PM, Ashbringer said:

Maybe not the Free Space - I do need to think of a few other things first - but that will indeed be making an appearance 

Also voting Gears for NAI things, arguing over the D1 vote, and an early misexe of Striker? lol

Lumi. Banter. Discarded.

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On 3/17/2021 at 6:11 PM, Quintessential said:

Also voting Gears for NAI things, arguing over the D1 vote, and an early misexe of Striker? lol

And Araris mentioning PM Safety, "sus", 4+ votes in the last 5 minutes before rollover, being vanilla, breaking the record for the longest PM/game, etc... xD

Ash. Banter. Discarded.

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  On 3/17/2021 at 5:22 PM, Archer said:

Striker.

 I propose we put votes/retractions at the start of posts, to help the GM out. 

Welcome to the madness, Whysper.

I’ve been trying to think of how elim!me would signal to my mistborn that I’m on their team. Voting for them is not a strategy I would consider. It seems like a good way to get read as a threat, not an ally.

Archer is elim with Mistborn!Striker we gottem

Mat. Half-right. Discarded.

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Illwei (1): STINK
Archer (2): Matrim, Tani
Pizza (1): Pizza
STINK (4): Illwei, Liranil, Striker, Biplet
Striker (1): Archer

So, we've only had half of the players vote so far, which feels low for D1 with only about 3 hours left in the cycle. @Flyingbooks @Random Bystander @Ashbringer @The Unknown Order @Whysper @Experience @Shard of Reading @Gears @Quintessential Any of y'all gonna vote or give thoughts on who we should exe? I know some of you have posted already a bit, but you haven't added a vote yet.

Striker. Dead. Discarded.

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  On 3/18/2021 at 10:08 AM, Biplet said:

I agree, but someone has to die D1 and I'd rather avoid a tie (or me completely avoiding the D1 vote like last game haha).

Well, to be fair, ties this game kill one of the tied players rather than no one dying, I'm pretty sure. So ties aren't too bad, they just leave things to be manipulated by vote manipulation. Which, for this game, can really only be soothers right now, I think.

Striker. No connection. Discarded.

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  On 3/18/2021 at 10:11 AM, StrikerEZ said:

Well, to be fair, ties this game kill one of the tied players rather than no one dying, I'm pretty sure. So ties aren't too bad, they just leave things to be manipulated by vote manipulation. Which, for this game, can really only be soothers right now, I think.

Neither, actually. A tie today would be complete RNG.

I don't like this Stink train.

Biplet feels different but that's off one post.

Mateo. Reasonable response. Discarded.

Quote

On 3/18/2021 at 10:05 AM, StrikerEZ said:

Illwei (1): STINK
Archer (2): Matrim, Tani
Pizza (1): Pizza
STINK (4): Illwei, Liranil, Striker, Biplet
Striker (1): Archer

So, we've only had half of the players vote so far, which feels low for D1 with only about 3 hours left in the cycle. @Flyingbooks @Random Bystander @Ashbringer @The Unknown Order @Whysper @Experience @Shard of Reading @Gears @Quintessential Any of y'all gonna vote or give thoughts on who we should exe? I know some of you have posted already a bit, but you haven't added a vote yet.

Oh! Shoot, sorry I thought rollover wasn't until tomorrow for some reason : P Unfortunately, rollover is at 2pm my time which means that while I can be on for it, I don't have the time to sit down and actually think about stuff.

Will say that the train on Striker (edit: I meant STINK) worries me. It's not that it picked up super fast--in fact, that's probably a good sign because the elims don't know their teammates identities, so they have to be cautious about following trains or risk accidentally voting out someone of the same alignment as them. Villagers, obviously, always have that issue, but I think so far we're assuming there are more of us still, so we can afford to lose a few.

What worries me about STINK is that nobody's actually giving reasoning related to STINK. Illwei's voting based off of an e/e pair, which on the one hand is understandable in this game but on the other hand I've done that before and it doesn't work out so well on C1 usually. Everyone else is voting him... just because? Because others are doing it? I don't have time to go back and check if that's actually why, but from what I can tell the reasons to vote stink have very little to do with STINK. It makes me wonder if there isn't a Mistborn on that train and one or more of the elims on their team decided to follow them.

As for myself: the only reason I have to think STINK might be elim was Archer's response to my blank-vote on STINK, and I am no longer convince that Archer is particularly elimmy either, except in conjunction with either STINK or Illwei, both of whom are behaving in... maybe not villagery ways but ways that I've seen village!them act before. I'm leaving Archer on the back burner, but idk whether I'll... vote based off of it. idk, I just don't have anything at this point, partly because this game is way different and I don't even know what to look for anymore. 

Liranil

Because who doesn't love a little tinfoil? : P

Lumi. Wrong words. Discarded.

Quote

 On 3/18/2021 at 10:05 AM, StrikerEZ said:

Illwei (1): STINK
Archer (2): Matrim, Tani
Pizza (1): Pizza
STINK (4): Illwei, Liranil, Striker, Biplet
Striker (1): Archer

So, we've only had half of the players vote so far, which feels low for D1 with only about 3 hours left in the cycle. @Flyingbooks @Random Bystander @Ashbringer @The Unknown Order @Whysper @Experience @Shard of Reading @Gears @Quintessential Any of y'all gonna vote or give thoughts on who we should exe? I know some of you have posted already a bit, but you haven't added a vote yet.

I make a point to not vote on the first cycle. I'd be frustrated if I got voted off on the first cycle for no reason, so yeah. Also, sorry for not posting earlier. I was a bit busy.

 

The Random Bystander had just completed her task on the dragon world, and could now compare them. She was bored, so she had decided to randomly join one of the armies. I sure hope I don't run into that Zane guy. I heard he's insane. She played her instrument. "I don't really understand what's going on, but I'm excited anyway." she said, randomly.

Ruby. Response. Discarded.

Quote

On 3/18/2021 at 10:36 AM, Quintessential said:

Will say that the train on Striker worries me. It's not that it picked up super fast--in fact, that's probably a good sign because the elims don't know their teammates identities, so they have to be cautious about following trains or risk accidentally voting out someone of the same alignment as them. Villagers, obviously, always have that issue, but I think so far we're assuming there are more of us still, so we can afford to lose a few.

what

there is no train on Striker

 Wei. Correction. Discarded.

Quote

On 3/18/2021 at 0:12 PM, Illwei said:

what

there is no train on Striker

*blink* 

Oh. I meant Stink. I... I'm tired I'm sorry : P

Quinn. Error. Discarded

Conclusion as of C1: Wei and Taniel seem connected. Wei's could reasonably be discarded and are currently left as the complimentary side of tinfoil. Taniel's could be a valid opinion but thus far, the opinion was shared by elims. Tani's could also connect to just being an elim. 

C2

Spoiler

Quote

So...rip my extra life smh

Striker. No connections. Discarded.

Quote

So... Archer voted on Striker. Striker was attacked. Archer was also attacked.

:thonk:

There's a connection here but I don't know what

Bip. Reasonable reaction. Discarded.

Quote

inb4 Archer and Striker are both opposing teams Mistborns

Illwei. Somewhat accurate banter. Discarded.

Quote

Well that was... not what I expected to happen. All the ways that players can survive an attack: be targeted by a Lurcher; be a Thug; be a Mistborn. I honestly can't see why Archer or Striker would have been targeted by a Lurcher, unless an elim Lurcher decided to protect their elim Mistborn, in which case that's another of the categories anyway. Archer was an exe candidate for much of the cycle, so I'm ruling out Lurcher for him entirely--nobody tries to NK someone who might die anyway, so nobody protects someone who might die anyway : P (edit: yes ik someone did try to NK someone who might die anyway, but my point is nobody expects that)

Therefore: Archer is either a Thug or a Mistborn. Striker might have been targeted by a Lurcher but I can't see... why... that would have happened... so I'm just gonna say he's probably Thug or Mistborn as well.

Question now is: what do we do with that? I'd been theorizing either STINK/Archer e-Mistborn/e or Archer/Illwei e-Mistborn/e. The former, obviously, we now know isn't the case. But the latter... given that:
A. Archer's response to my STINK vote did sound forced (though I misinterpreted that originally as being an attempt to protect a teammate)
B. Illwei's response to my theory about her and Archer was kinda... I mean she's explained it and I can see how she could have that response but it also feels off to me still 
C. the person Archer voted on was also NKd? not sure whether this one actually means anything tho
D. Archer is now proven to have had an extra life...

Archer

Let's see how this goes : P

(would note that Striker is also on my radar, but for the moment I'm honestly not super worried about him--or at least, I don't think he's Mistborn. Combination of gut and voting patterns)

Quinn. Ties conclusion to wrong person. Might have been noted, but they are dead, so discarded.

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On 3/18/2021 at 2:42 PM, Quintessential said:

Therefore: Archer is either a Thug or a Mistborn. Striker might have been targeted by a Lurcher but I can't see... why... that would have happened... so I'm just gonna say he's probably Thug or Mistborn as well.

 

  On 3/18/2021 at 2:42 PM, Quintessential said:

Archer

1/3 chance Archer is Vin, if you're saying they're mistborn. Seems like a risky vote all things considered

Bip. Defending Archer. Might have been noted, but Cher is dead. Discarded

Quote

Woah what was the chance of that happening xD

Told you Stink was a bad idea smh we lost our Terris. There might be another but like I doubt it.

I'm with Quinn- in leu of my slight village read of Striker, killing @Archer here seems like the best bet, though I'm somewhat interested on what he has to say about his survival and I don't want a repeat of my voting-on-the-person-I-voted-for-last-cycle-immediately-after-the-new-cycle-is-posted thing. And he might be Vin, but of course he'd say that anyway :P.

Edit: Thrice ninja'd.

Mateo. Ties conclusion to wrong person. Might have been noted, but they are dead. Discarded

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On 3/18/2021 at 2:49 PM, Matrim's Dice said:

I'm with Quinn- in leu of my slight village read of Striker, killing @Archer here seems like the best bet, though I'm somewhat interested on what he has to say about his survival and I don't want a repeat of my voting-on-the-person-I-voted-for-last-cycle-immediately-after-the-new-cycle-is-posted thing. And he might be Vin, but of course he'd say that anyway :P.

So... are you going to vote him?

Q. Response to other thing. Dead. Discarded.

Quote

Speaking for myself here, Quinn, but I'm going to wait to hear from @Archer before I make any decisions for my vote this cycle. Like bip said, he could very easily be Vin, and I want to see what he does once he knows what's happened. 

Striker. Dead. Discarded.

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On 3/18/2021 at 2:42 PM, Quintessential said:

Illwei's response to my theory about her and Archer was kinda... I mean she's explained it and I can see how she could have that response but it also feels off to me still 

Welp nothing I can do to fight it if you won't listen to reason :P.

So you think he's an Elim based on my interactions with him, and then him being protected somehow last night? were you not the one who mentioned this type of reasoning being strange and invalid for killink STINK, and here you are using it. Like Matrim v Illwei in LG73, the normal decision here would be to kill Me, not Archer, and then work off of that.

Regardless, I think some things he said yesterday came off a bit to overeager to try and get village points. Mostly him over-emphasizing wanting people to not talk about Elim strats. Also Archer/Gears potentially feels e/e depending, seeing as he commented saying that Gears sounded like he was signalling, voted gears, then removed it, saying it was for no reason realy. he then ends up on Striker, for no real reason. And Striker/Archer can't be e/e though.

Otherwise Liranil is in my trusts and I'm not sure what to think about Pizza. He's been voting on himself, but he's new, but theoretically voting yourself or someone who isn't going to die is a good way to potentially avoid killing other Elims. But I guess that only applies if something happens to show them switch to defend a mistborn

Illiad. Not about Striker. Discarded.

Quote

On 3/18/2021 at 2:42 PM, Quintessential said:

Striker might have been targeted by a Lurcher but I can't see... why... that would have happened... so I'm just gonna say he's probably Thug or Mistborn as well.

Forgot to add- based on his first post this cycle I think we can rule out Lurcher entirely, expanding what makes sense to going with what he said. That being that he lost his extra life.

Mat. Good point. Not connecting. Discarded.

Quote

 On 3/18/2021 at 3:04 PM, Illwei said:

And Striker/Archer can't be e/e though.

Well, they could both be elim. They'd just have to be on different teams.

Quinn. Unrelated misunderstanding.

Quote

For the sake of clarity, I'm thinking of using e/i ("i" for imposters) to denote people being on different elim teams. So if we think people are on the same elim team, e/e, but on different, e/i. That's at least what I'll do here.  Below are my thoughts written out for my own clarity.

Confirmed:

Archer/Striker are not e/e: Since elim teams can't vote out one of their own, Archer and Striker aren't on the same elim team. They could still be e/i. Also, because there's no doc and the elims can't vote out their own team, we don't have to worry about WGGs (I think so? Right?). 

Archer/Striker are either Thugs or Mistborn, or were protected by Lurchers: Striker has basically confirmed that they weren't protected by a Lurcher (could be lying, but idk), and it would be unlikely for two Lurchers (or even one) to successfully predict who the elim teams would kill.

Quinn's reasoning on Archer seems sound to me, but I'm not confident about voting him. 

This is the point where, if one of them is Vin, I kinda wonder if they should claim in order to get protection from a Lurcher, since their extra life was just lost. Then again, that just ensures that the elims will keep trying to NK them, and we don't actually know if there are any village Lurchers. Or if there are multiple who will all try to protect them this cycle and then leave them defenseless the next. 

Idk. And I'm not getting anything strong enough to vote on yet, either.

Liranil. Implies one of them is Vin. A reasonable assumption. Somewhat noted.

Quote

Man I disappeared for a few hours and didn’t miss all that much. I’m both somehow disappointed but also glad. 

Anyway, still waiting on Archer to say something. I’m not even gonna comment on the Quinn/Illwei stuff because I feel like this happens every game and nothing ever really comes of it. 

Anyway, like others have said, Archer and I can’t both be on the same team. So the options are 1) I’m village and he’s one of the two elim teams, 2) I’m on one of the two elim teams and he’s village, 3) I’m one one of the two teams and he’s on the other one, or 4) we’re both village. I was definitely getting odd vibes from him last cycle, so I think we’ve probably got 1) going on right now, but I guess 4) is still an option. 

Striker. Nothing. Discarded.

Quote

On 3/18/2021 at 7:07 PM, StrikerEZ said:

Anyway, still waiting on Archer to say something. I’m not even gonna comment on the Quinn/Illwei stuff because I feel like this happens every game and nothing ever really comes of it. 

I mean last time it happened Illwei was elim

  On 3/18/2021 at 7:07 PM, StrikerEZ said:

Anyway, like others have said, Archer and I can’t both be on the same team. So the options are 1) I’m village and he’s one of the two elim teams, 2) I’m on one of the two elim teams and he’s village, 3) I’m one one of the two teams and he’s on the other one, or 4) we’re both village. I was definitely getting odd vibes from him last cycle, so I think we’ve probably got 1) going on right now, but I guess 4) is still an option. 

Or 3  

Quinn. I would like to note that the Qwei stuff seems to get more heated every game, which is mildly concerning. Discarded.

Quote

On 3/18/2021 at 7:07 PM, StrikerEZ said:

I’m not even gonna comment on the Quinn/Illwei stuff because I feel like this happens every game and nothing ever really comes of it.

Quinn/Illwei stuff???

Quinn am I missing something because I thought we were good? We're just talking? because not many other people are?

Wei. They were good, but not for long... Discarded

Quote

  On 3/18/2021 at 7:33 PM, Illwei said:

Quinn am I missing something because I thought we were good? We're just talking? because not many other people are?

Yeah, at this point we're just talking... I assumed Striker was referring to last cycle?

Lumi. Jinxed it. Discarded.

Quote

On 3/18/2021 at 2:36 PM, StrikerEZ said:

So...rip my extra life smh

^^^

I'm surprised I was attacked. I'd have thought because I was a potential exe candidate, they'd have gone for someone else so if the votes shifted at last minute, they wouldn't have wasted their NK. Also, as a person of interest, I might have been MLed. I guess I defended STINK, so that looks good, but they wouldn't have known his flip. Anyway, the elims were definitely on near rollover, if anyone was watching then (unlike me, who is out right now). 

I jumped on to see what was up, but am busy and won't be around until tomorrow. Based on my one minute skim, I don't think Striker has claimed yet, which he's probably doing intentionally to see if I'll claim Vin. I can think of Elim and village reasons he'd do that. I'll make it easy and just reveal that I am a thug. Surprise. I'm glad you didn't exe me. Sus on everyone who made the stink exe happen, it made little sense to me. 

Also, it'd be a fallacy, but since I can't be on the Elim team that tried to kill me, am I not now 50% less likely to be an Elim? Same with Striker. Is that how math works. Please don't kill me, I won't survive a second attack 

Archer. Good points. Discarded.

Quote

 On 3/18/2021 at 8:54 PM, Archer said:

I jumped on to see what was up, but am busy and won't be around until tomorrow. Based on my one minute skim, I don't think Striker has claimed yet, which he's probably doing intentionally to see if I'll claim Vin. I can think of Elim and village reasons he'd do that. I'll make it easy and just reveal that I am a thug. Surprise. I'm glad you didn't exe me.

I mean, I was basically claiming Thug. I was waiting to see what you did, so I could make a judgement based on what you said. I'm not sure what I think of us both being Thugs. But I also don't want to make any inferences about the distribution...but you were also really giving me bad vibes last cycle, with the stuff with you almost wanting to control what we all talked about. So, with that, and this Thug claim, I think I feel comfortable voting Archer.

Striker. No connections. Discarded.

Quote

On 3/18/2021 at 8:54 PM, Archer said:

Anyway, the elims were definitely on near rollover, if anyone was watching then (unlike me, who is out right now).

I was almost thinking the opposite- Stink was well ahead up untill rollover, I thought. I don't really like to make reads using things like that though :P.

  On 3/18/2021 at 8:54 PM, Archer said:

I'll make it easy and just reveal that I am a thug.

So either you're telling the truth and

1. The elims managed to hit the two (likely only) village Thugs OR
2. You're a Thug for the elim team that didn't attack you (unlikely- I don't particularly think either of the teams will have Thugs unless one has less members than the other, because of the Mistborn's Pewter.) OR
3. You're a village Thug and Striker is an enemy Mistborn (or an enemy Thug, but see above)

Or you're lying, an enemy Mistborn, and Striker is either the other enemy Mistborn (That'd actually be pretty convenient for us ) or a village Thug. (Again, or an elim Thug, but see above.)

Edit: Or either is Vin :P.

  On 3/18/2021 at 8:54 PM, Archer said:

Sus on everyone who made the stink exe happen, it made little sense to me.

Generally agree with this.

---Ninja'd by Striker, who's post gives me a bad gut read.  Why can't this game just be easy

Though I legitimately think it might be the use of the phrase 'really gives me bad vibes' but that would 100% be a me problem.

TL;DR I'm not feeling super confident about either of them right now :P. So I might abstain from voting out of the two of them but I'll vote elsewhere. If it comes close between the two (I say this as Striker has no votes lol) I'll probably vote Archer.

I'd be interested to see if the elim teams just attack the same people again since they know that the person they attacked isn't on their team.

Mat. Unconfident about both. Discarded.

Quote

 On 3/18/2021 at 9:08 PM, Matrim's Dice said:

---Ninja'd by Striker, who's post gives me a bad gut read.  Why can't this game just be easy

Though I legitimately think it might be the use of the phrase 'really gives me bad vibes' but that would 100% be a me problem.

I just wanna know why that phrase gives you such a bad gut read. Almost said bad vibes instead of bad gut read

As for the rest of the post: I can't say much more than what I've already said, except to say that I was really excited to have an extra life that could protect me from inevitably getting exed at some point, but alas, twas not meant to be.  

Striker. No connections. Discarded.

Quote

 On 3/18/2021 at 9:15 PM, StrikerEZ said:

I just wanna know why that phrase gives you such a bad gut read.

You and me both  

Cinnamon. Banter. Discarded.

Quote

  On 3/18/2021 at 9:08 PM, Matrim's Dice said:

-Ninja'd by Striker, who's post gives me a bad gut read

Ah yes, Mat sus of Striker. Familiarity!

I'm not confident enough voting on either Striker or Archer, really, but we'll see. I think it could be reasonable that they're both village, and one is a thug and the other is Vin but doesn't want to claim it. I'm still wary of misexeing Vin. Now if the vote gets really close... we might see a claim.

Bip. Implying village. Reasonable opinion. Somewhat noted.

Quote

On 3/18/2021 at 9:19 PM, Matrim's Dice said:

Technically, they both claimed Thug already.

Striker only said extra life

Bip. True. Discarded.

Quote

On 3/18/2021 at 9:19 PM, Biplet said:

Striker only said extra life

...I guess I took this:

  On 3/18/2021 at 9:02 PM, StrikerEZ said:

I mean, I was basically claiming Thug.

As a claim, though rereading that post I can see he never explicitly said he was a Thug. Huh.

 Mat. No connections. Discarded.

Quote

On 3/18/2021 at 9:19 PM, Biplet said:

Striker only said extra life

You missed me claiming Thug just a little bit ago 

Striker. No connections. Discarded.

Quote

  On 3/18/2021 at 9:22 PM, StrikerEZ said:

You missed me claiming Thug just a little bit ago

I may be stupid

Bip. Banter. Discarded.

Quote

On 3/18/2021 at 9:23 PM, Biplet said:

I may be stupid

You're not stupid. Am I perhaps stupid for claiming Thug in thread? Mayhaps. Though I guess that just makes me and Archer both stupid. 

Striker. Banter. Discarded.

Quote

On 3/18/2021 at 9:22 PM, StrikerEZ said:

You missed me claiming Thug just a little bit ago 

Or never mind, I guess :P. I think the claim lies in the sentence "I don't know what I think about us both being Thugs."?

Well either way, that's two survives C1, two Thug claims. I didn't really expect any other claim though :P.

Mat. Commentary. Discarded.

Quote

Gotta love the fact that most of the second page is just me, Bip, and Mat going in circles about my claim as a Thug. 

Kale. Banter. Discarded.

Quote

  On 3/18/2021 at 9:27 PM, Liranil said:

I agree with Matrim that this is wrong; in fact, I'm pretty sure the fact that they tried to kill you points to the idea that the elims that voted for you weren't as active after the train on you started. 

I guess this is somewhere we could look- as a starting point. I don't want people not on at EoD to be the reason to exe them :P. But if we see someone doing sus things that also fit into this profile I wouldn't be sad about killing them, likely. I'll look at last cycle later for something to do.

  On 3/18/2021 at 9:27 PM, Liranil said:

I'm more curious as to why the elims voted these two in particular (or if it was just... everyone voted for someone different and it was RNG'd).

I don't really think we'll ever know that, or gain info from trying to guess  Could be discussion though, I guess.

  On 3/18/2021 at 9:26 PM, Biplet said:

Love that we both just went in circles for no reason XD

  On 3/18/2021 at 9:28 PM, StrikerEZ said:

Gotta love the fact that most of the second page is just me, Bip, and Mat going in circles about my claim as a Thug. 

Absolutely! The technicality of semi-unprovable claims is important!  (Unproveable in that Striker is a Thug or a Mistborn, and we won't know which until he's dead or the game is over.)

Mat. Banter. Discarded.

Quote

  On 3/18/2021 at 9:32 PM, Matrim's Dice said:

Absolutely! The technicality of semi-unprovable claims is important!  (Unproveable in that Striker is a Thug or a Mistborn, and we won't know which until he's dead or the game is over.)

I mean, I'd prefer it to be when the game is over, as I die early a lot, but with my extra life gone now, that's not looking like it's going to happen. 

Striker. Prophet. Discarded.

HERE BEGINS THE C5 THOUGHTS. ABOVE WAS OUTDATED C4 THOUGHTS

Quote

  On 3/18/2021 at 11:36 PM, Ashbringer said:

... what are your opinions? I don’t think you got back to me on that.

It got eaten twice, short story short: I don't like how he's attempting to control the thread and how similar it is to the QF where he was elim. The second post alleviated my suspicion somewhat, but it isn't really enough. I would be ok with a Striker exe considering there's a fairly likely chance that he's a e!mistborn. I'll likely go with whichever exe picks up steam.

Order. I don't like this. However, I can't quite articulate why I don't like it. Noted for Cett.

Quote

Liranil

Alright, I’m back on pc, but I’ll go to bed immediately after this.

An unlikely event has occurred! Time to read up on Prosecutor's fallacy (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prosecutor's_fallacy) and the debunked Meadow's law.

I didn’t hop onto today because I knew I had an extra life, so I didn’t need to be on to cast a tie-breaker vote. I did not expect it to be used up by an NK, although I suppose I should be flattered? At least one person views me as a threat (or wrong enough that the village would be misled when I flipped). That was the plan. Meta-watchers will note I made myself a bigger target than I usually do last cycle because I knew it was better I took a hit than anyone else.

The only reason I can think of why a lurcher would protect Striker is if they were their mistborn or if they were dating IRL. :eyes: This could be an indication we have a higher than average amount of protection flying around, but given how quick Striker was to claim they had ‘an extra life’, I’m willing to believe they’re a Thug or Mistborn.

Like bip said, he could very easily be Vin, and I want to see what he does once he knows what's happened. -Striker

Here they soft-claim non-mistborn. Bold of them not to leave their options open. You know, at the start of this post, I was thinking of offering myself up as the kill today, then Striker the next. That way this coincidence would be explained before exlo. I’m torn, because if we’ve caught a mistborn, that’s awesome. If we haven’t, we’re going to waste two days of kills, assuming the elims don’t help us out. The one thing I don’t want to do is leave this at a tight vote that can be easily manipulated. I prefer predictable results.

I agree with Matrim that this is wrong; in fact, I'm pretty sure the fact that they tried to kill you points to the idea that the elims that voted for you weren't as active after the train on you started. -Liranil

Going purely by memory, I collected a few votes at the end of the first IRL day, around when I voted Quinn. After that, it swung to Stink, then back to me. My read remains that the elims are active and had a village read on me, perhaps because several people like Mat said they had a village read on me. (Side note: would someone bored like to go through the thread to find any signals that directed the kills? Stuff like people village reading me of Striker, or voting on us etc.) Or, I hit a vein when I voted Striker, who is a mistborn.

Had I not had an elim read on Striker going in, I think I would have been happy to let their protection slide. I think the thread is leaning towards exing me first, so when I flip Thug, is the plan to exe Striker, thinking that the odds of him being e-mistborn or e-thug are greater than him being v-thug? I’m not sure the logic there quite checks out, but hey, I’ll be dead.

I make a point to not vote on the first cycle. I'd be frustrated if I got voted off on the first cycle for no reason, so yeah. Also, sorry for not posting earlier. I was a bit busy. -Randby

Noble sentiment, but if no one pointed any fingers, we wouldn’t get anywhere.

Liranil gets to be my first village read / Otherwise Liranil is in my trusts -Illwei

I’m unsure why Liranil would be trusted. They had a very conservative C1 that boiled down to them being willing to test others’ theories. Elims need to get mis-exes somehow this game, might as well eb through sheeping.

She said she'd be fine with voting anyone except her- elims know their Mistborn and thus aren't fine with exeing them. -Matrim

Is it because of this? Because if their mistborn wasn’t up for exe, or they are an elim mistborn, as far as they know, their vote wouldn’t matter. Stink and I are villagers, so elim!Liranil wouldn’t care if her vote pushed one of us into the fire. Otherwise, her vote wouldn’t likely result in an exe. Elims can feign nonchalance. If someone said ‘oh you should vote XXX then’ and they really didn’t want to, they could easily just say, ‘no, I don’t trust you!’. I have an elim read on Liranil right now, which is saying something because I know this game has a higher than usual number of elims, but I have more village reads than usual… and very few elim ones. Probably because the elims are less coordinated

Archer's response to my STINK vote did sound forced (though I misinterpreted that originally as being an attempt to protect a teammate) -Quinn

Just want to highlight that Stink was not my elim teammate. I suspect I’ll need to repeat that several times this round.

Archer was an exe candidate for much of the cycle, so I'm ruling out Lurcher for him entirely--nobody tries to NK someone who might die anyway -Quinn

Agreed.

I'm... pretty sure Pizza just isn't sure what's going on lol -Quinn

They remind me of Breaker. Self-voting is generally a bad strategy. If you’re a villager, you should want to live, unless your flip produces some information.

Also, I’m trying really hard not to skim over every time Illwei and Quinn quote each other, but it’s late and that’s getting hard so sorry to both of you.

It got eaten twice, short story short: I don't like how he's attempting to control the thread and how similar it is to the QF where he was elim -TUO

I’m actually okay with you making this observation, because it’s true. It’s intentional. The goal was to emulate my behaviour from then enough that people would read me as an elim for being too aggressively villager, which is something I can’t be exed for. It seemed like a win-win in my head when I thought about it. At worst, people would miss it and I’d end up taking a hit, as is my job as the thug.

That said, I'd rather not be known as a 'thread-controller'. I recognize that that's probably not exactly what you meant as short post equals less nuance, but I don't feel like I'm that domineering. So any suggestions for how I can improve are welcomed. 

Archer. Dead. Good responses. Discarded.

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  On 3/18/2021 at 11:56 PM, Archer said:

Had I not had an elim read on Striker going in, I think I would have been happy to let their protection slide. I think the thread is leaning towards exing me first, so when I flip Thug, is the plan to exe Striker, thinking that the odds of him being e-mistborn or e-thug are greater than him being v-thug? I’m not sure the logic there quite checks out, but hey, I’ll be dead.

And what happens if you flip elim? Or if you do flip v!Thug, are you just suggesting I get exed for my role? Do we need to bring up AG2 (or was it AG3?) where the village exed/killed their way through all of the Smokers and not a single one was an elim? I wouldn't be too surprised at all if the elim teams were beefed up enough to account for the fact that the village has at least two Thugs. 

Striker. Trying to avoid getting murdered. Discarded.

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On 3/18/2021 at 9:08 PM, Matrim's Dice said:

Ninja'd by Striker, who's post gives me a bad gut read.

So mindmeld here, which means... *counts on fingers* you're an elim this time? :P.

Honestly I went through trying to figure out what made me feel off, but the more I read it the more the things that didn't make sense made sense and it was just me misunderstanding so ?? I think Striker's phrasing or tone just always feels off in some way? :P.

  On 3/18/2021 at 11:44 PM, The Unknown Order said:

I don't like how he's attempting to control the thread and how similar it is to the QF where he was elim.

I completely agree with this, and was also getting these vibes last cycle.

I'd also like to look at people who aren't Archer and Striker this cycle, because it seems that a number of people have latched onto them for some reason, when I agree here actually that going after them makes less sense, because they have 50% less chance of being an Elim than the other people. They technically are two people who we know for sure will die, but that doesn't feel like a good reason tbh :P.

  On 3/18/2021 at 11:56 PM, Archer said:

The only reason I can think of why a lurcher would protect Striker is if they were their mistborn or if they were dating IRL. :eyes:

Someone else I think said something like this ^^ but I wanted to add to that: Striker often dies early, though usually to the vote, someone could have wanted to try and see him like through a game again :P.

  On 3/19/2021 at 0:02 AM, Ashbringer said:

Archer was the GM of the QF...

Wait now I'm confused too. TUO wasn't there for QF 49, right??? he joined in...He joined in QF50. Archer was in that, right? but he wasn't an Elim in that.

But yeah
right now I'm thinking I don't want to kill either one of them, basically because I don't want to end up getting caught killing them both and then being at C4 with no info basically because we spent the last cycles killing off the Elims NK Targets

Like

Does no one realize how that's just... ??? because there's less chance that they are elims than basically anyone else ??

Illwei. Actively defending/pointing people away from Archer and Striker. Noted.

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*rubs eyes* okay first of all, would like to point out that because of the way probability works, Archer and Striker are not any less likely to be elims than they were before! Look up the Monty Hall Problem. This is the same thing, but with slightly different probabilities. 

But having said that, Archer. Not because he's convinced me he's not elim, but because it occurred to me while I was catching up with the thread that we could just let him and Striker get NKd again, and focus our energy on others. The elim teams that attacked them can't know whether they hit a Thug or a Mistborn, which means that they'll want to hit them again to find out. Presumably. Obviously they could always decide not to, but I don't... really see what they'd gain from that. (Edit: The elims) attacking Archer and Striker doesn't give us any additional info about the elim teams, because they already did it once. And each one stands to gain from the possibility of taking out an enemy Mistborn.

Liranil for the same reasons/tinfoil as last cycle (plus I agree with whoever pointed it out that she's playing a bit more conservatively than usual).

Quinn. Dead. Reverse connection. Discarded.

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  On 3/19/2021 at 9:16 AM, Shard of Reading said:

This might be my bad memory, but have you ever explained the tinfoil?

Basically, my thought is that it was odd that people voted STINK without much reasoning, and without any reasoning related to STINK himself. Normally I'd think that was elim coordination, but the elims can't coordinate this game, right? Except if they follow their Mistborn. So I was theorizing/tinfoiling that Liranil was elim-Mistborn (she was the second person to vote STINK) and then one or both (but probably just one : P) of [Striker, Biplet] was elim with her, and following her vote to try to signal that. Technically, Illwei voted STINK before Liranil did, so she's a possible (edit: e-Mistborn) candidate also, but she also voted way before the other three votes so I don't think that's as likely.

Am I grasping at straws? Yeah, pretty much. But our two major suspects from last cycle were STINK and Archer, with Illwei and Liranil just behind them. STINK's dead, I think we should just leave Archer to whichever elim team attacked him last cycle, ditto for the new suspicion on Striker, and I don't want to attack Illwei again at this point without more evidence against her because wallpost battles are exhausting and when she turns out to actually be village I feel bad about it : P beyond that, we had nothing from C1, nothing has surfaced so far this cycle, and so... yeah. Liranil it is.

Quinn. Dead. Inverse connection. Discarded.

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On 3/18/2021 at 11:56 PM, Archer said:

Just want to highlight that Stink was not my elim teammate. I suspect I’ll need to repeat that several times this round.

 

Lol. Yeah.

  On 3/19/2021 at 1:03 AM, Illwei said:

So mindmeld here, which means... *counts on fingers* you're an elim this time? :P.

It's clearly not a pattern :P.

  On 3/19/2021 at 1:03 AM, Illwei said:

Honestly I went through trying to figure out what made me feel off, but the more I read it the more the things that didn't make sense made sense and it was just me misunderstanding so ?? I think Striker's phrasing or tone just always feels off in some way? :P.

I think that's it for me, which I already mentioned.

  On 3/19/2021 at 1:03 AM, Illwei said:

I'd also like to look at people who aren't Archer and Striker this cycle, because it seems that a number of people have latched onto them for some reason, when I agree here actually that going after them makes less sense, because they have 50% less chance of being an Elim than the other people. They technically are two people who we know for sure will die, but that doesn't feel like a good reason tbh :P.

Agree here- I'd also be kinda surprised if the elim teams didn't just attack Archer and Striker again, so we could leave them alone for that reason :P. I don't love the reasoning of 'they're 50% less likely to be an elim' but take that with the grain of salt that I'm only a freshman and haven't got any advanced math probability things like that yet. I can do circle theorems, though, if you want...

  On 3/19/2021 at 7:55 AM, Quintessential said:

The elims) attacking Archer and Striker doesn't give us any additional info about the elim teams, because they already did it once.

This isn't actually true- potentially one of them could flip elim and then we'd know which team attacked who, which could be useful or could be useless.

  On 3/19/2021 at 7:55 AM, Quintessential said:

Liranil for the same reasons/tinfoil as last cycle (plus I agree with whoever pointed it out that she's playing a bit more conservatively than usual).

Liranil literally seems the same to me as every other game so I have no clue what you're talking about :P.

  On 3/19/2021 at 7:56 AM, Biplet said:

Bold of you to assume this makes me biased

*raises hand after considering your contribution to killing him in LG74* I don't!  

Edit:

Only editing to tag @Whysper who @TJ Shade forgot to tag in the OP and instead tagged Ventyl, which I just noticed, and it'd be a real shame if she missed the entire cycle  

Matrim. Encourages leaving them. Discarded.

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Why does Striker die early every game? I'm new to playing but I'm not new to spectating. Seems like he dies early all the time, and it's almost always a misexe. Heck, he died D2 in LG74. What's the deal lol?

Bip. Questions. Discarded

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Okay, I'm going to spoil this next bit because it ended up being longer than I thought.  The tl;dr: the odds of us being an elim have changed from the initial standpoint at the start of the game.

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So, I've actually read up on the Monty Hall thing, and the key thing with the probability working out the way that it does is that the host has to pick a goat door, no matter what. For those who haven't read up on the problem: basically, because of that, the odds are more likely that the door you don't initially pick becomes more likely to have the prize since you know the information about both of the other doors. What changes things around this time is the rules for our game, in that, if you are attacked, you cannot be on the team that attacked you. Me and Archer's initial probabilities for being elims were both individually 1/3 (if we're gonna simplify it, though the probabilities would be a bit different based on the size of the teams, and probably less than 1/3). Now that we've been attacked, we've eliminated the chances that we are on the team that attacked us. It's an entirely different game from the Monty Hall problem. There are literally only 2 options for each of us, and we can't both be on the same elim teams. The probability isn't exactly 50/50, considering that there's probably...only 6 or 8 total elims. So you'd get something like either a 35% (6 elims out of 17 players) or a 47% (8 elims out of 17 players) chance we're elims. And if one of us is an elim, that decreases the other's probability down to around...18% (3 elims out of 17 players) or 24% (4 elims out of 17 players), because they can't be on the same team and therefore have less chances to be an elim. The math isn't exactly right because I'm just doing some quick assumptions about some stuff, but this isn't exactly like the Monty Hall problem because us being attacked does change our probability of being an elim, since we have one whole team we can't be apart of. 

In other news, some comments about the actual game: 

  On 3/19/2021 at 7:56 AM, Biplet said:

Bold of you to assume this makes me biased

I know that it's not going to make you biased, considering you were involved in getting me exed last game. 

  On 3/19/2021 at 9:45 AM, Biplet said:

Why does Striker die early every game? I'm new to playing but I'm not new to spectating. Seems like he dies early all the time, and it's almost always a misexe. Heck, he died D2 in LG74. What's the deal lol?

I mean, I have no idea. It just keeps happening. I think it's just because I tend to be a more vocal player, don't think through everything I say super thoroughly before I post it, and often have some bad logic in my posts. 

As for what we should talk about now, Quinn, I think that Archer is an elim. Like...I know I did that whole thing up with the probability stuff (which could be completely wrong ), but my read isn't based solely on probability or anything. I still think everything he did last cycle just was a bit odd, a bit too forced. And sure, he's come up with an explanation now that he's under fire, but I don't know if I buy it. And I don't like how Quinn backed off as soon as he gained a few more votes.

Striker. No connections. Discarded.

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  On 3/19/2021 at 10:10 AM, StrikerEZ said:

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*rubs eyes* that's... not how that works. : P You say: "There are literally only 2 options for each of us, and we can't both be on the same elim teams." But... that's the whole point of the Monty Hall problem. Ruling out one of the three doors doesn't change any of the probabilities. Ruling out one of the three teams doesn't change any of the probabilities either.

Also, note that because we don't know which team attacked each of you, we haven't even opened a door, so to speak. We know you can't be on the same team, but originally you could have been, and that probability transfers. The Monty Hall problem is just an example of that larger phenomenon. : P

  On 3/19/2021 at 10:10 AM, StrikerEZ said:

As for what we should talk about now, Quinn, I think that Archer is an elim. Like...I know I did that whole thing up with the probability stuff (which could be completely wrong ), but my read isn't based solely on probability or anything. I still think everything he did last cycle just was a bit odd, a bit too forced. And sure, he's come up with an explanation now that he's under fire, but I don't know if I buy it. And I don't like how Quinn backed off as soon as he gained a few more votes.

Oh my god I am backing off because I realized he's gonna die anyway! That was my whole point. The elim team that attacked him before now knows that he very well might be Mistborn, that he's not on their team, and that attacking him doesn't give us any more information about the team itself. They have every reason to kill him and no reason not to. I'm not gonna waste a cycle exeing him when the elims will probably attack him again this cycle if he's not in the lead for votes. Exeing him would just be doing their work for them.

Quinn. Backing down from things. Discarded.

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I think what’s throwing me off about Striker is that everyone keeps saying that they die early, which I sympathize with, but the more it’s repeated, the more it sounds like an appeal to our emotions from an elim.

To clarify what TUO meant, in my debut game, QF49: Chaos in Newcago, I was an eliminator. I got by basically by talking more than people expect a rookie to, while getting some solid cover in my teammates’ reads. Going into this game, my assumption was that the elims would target the most villagery people because if they make the correct reads, they will avoid exing fellow elims. As a thug, I wanted to absorb one of those, so I adopted a vote-changing, loud-talking strategy designed to make them uncomfortable. I still wanted to survive though, so one thing I thought about was if I act like I did in QF49, I might actually get over-looked for a few rounds as the elims meta-analyze their way out of voting for me. TUO wasn’t in that game, but they could have easily have read the thread at some point.

If you look at the QF, one of my elim tells is bad math, so I’m wary of trying to tackle a probability problem right now. But let’s try it anyway, so people can take a stab at correcting my inevitable mistakes. [Future Archer here: Striker posted some math, the take-away from which is ‘if one of us is an elim, that decreases the other's probability’ of being an elim’.]

If either of us had been lurcher protected, I think we would have said so and expressed confusion about it, because that’s less suspicious than being possibly mistborn. So let’s assume Striker and I are either Thugs or Mistborn. (I’m going to solve this as if I don’t know my own role.)

Using my distribution prediction from C1, I believe this role madness game has three mistborn and three protectors. I also think that the three-person elim teams have one protection role each, likely one has a lurcher and the other has a thug, just for variety. That leaves the village with only one Thug, but we have a 12:3:3 majority. The game has two Thugs in it total. (Note that these are all guesses.)

So we have V-Thug, V-Mistborn, E-Thug, E1-Mistborn, and E2-Mistborn. When the roles are randomly distributed, each player has a 1/18 chance of being a specific one of those roles, and a 5/18 chance of being any one of those roles.

Now that I write it out, knowing that I’m a village thug, either Striker is confirmed evil or Vin, or I’ve wrongly guessed the distribution. So let’s back up and assume the village has two thugs. That just means one less vote manip or something. Also, if I’m discounting lurcher protection, that means us being possibly Vin doesn’t make sense either, as we’ve both denied it.

That makes V1-Thug, V2-Thug, E-Thug, E1-Mistborn, E2-Mistborn. With Vin removed (and Stink, come to think of it), it’s 5/16 that one of us is among that set, 2/16 that we’re village, and 3/16 that we’re evil. So I think that if one of us were randomly selected from the pool, it is more likely that one of us would be an elim than not.

But wait! The elims can’t kill their own people. So because they’re selecting, we need to remove their own players from the pool. Let’s say Elim Team One has a thug and mistborn, while ET2 has only a mistborn. ET1 makes a random selection from the eligible pool, which is V1-Thug, V2-Thug, and E2-Mistborn. They had a 2/3 chance of picking a passively protected non-Vin villager. ET2 had 2/4 odds. But! The pools overlapped.

The only way I can think to calculate that is by pretending they took turns. ET1 makes a selection. They have 2/3 of hitting a villager. If they do, ET2 has a pool of one villager and two elims. So they are more likely to hit an elim.

Going just by that, knowing I am a villager, I think Striker is more likely to be an elim than not. But here’s where it falls apart. They didn’t pick from a tiny pool of people, they both independently picked from a large pool of people. I am unconfident enough in my ability to do math not to vote Striker on the basis of this without first having someone better versed in STEM check my calculations.

An unlikely event has occurred. There’s famous court cases of mothers whose children have died. The prosecution argues that one child dying could be a coincidence, but a second dying is so unlikely that it must be murder. The defence to that attack is that an unlikely event has already occurred: two children have died. Weighing which method is more likely is not the appropriate way to determine guilt. So that’s something to keep in mind.

I don’t know what the elims will do tonight. If they like my math, maybe they’ll hit me and Striker in hopes of getting a mistborn. I’m afraid they’ll pick three other people instead and we’ll be back to spending a cycle wondering if we should exe Striker or I. But since the elims might shoot other elims, I’m okay taking the chance that they won’t hit us. We’re not at exlo yet, so if we decide to go all in on exing me and Striker and we’re both villagers, I think we’d have enough time to recover afterwards. It’s not ideal, but it’s better than being out of ideas at exlo and exing me because I’m a question mark. I want to make the elims work harder to get their mis-exes. If we were under more pressure, I think I'd more heavily encourage a Striker kill, but given the dynamics of the game, I think Quinn might be right. They know we're not on their team, so better to NK us than to risk not killing anyone at all. 

Archer. Wants to leave them. Discarded.

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I'm of the opinion of letting the elim teams kill Archer and Striker and finding a new target today that isn't Liranil :P.

Matrim. Dead. Discarded.

[FROM THIS POINT ONWARDS, ALL DEAD PEOPLE WILL BE SKIPPED]

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 On 3/19/2021 at 10:28 AM, Quintessential said:

Also, note that because we don't know which team attacked each of you, we haven't even opened a door, so to speak. We know you can't be on the same team, but originally you could have been, and that probability transfers. The Monty Hall problem is just an example of that larger phenomenon. : P

Where the heck is Araris when you need him

And arent mathematical proofs dumb like can't you prove anything especially if it's to someone who doesn't know math

  On 3/19/2021 at 10:47 AM, Quintessential said:

(side-note: apparently no one believes the future engineering major who once took an entire class devoted to probability on how the math around this actually works. Great. Cool. Good to know. >>)

You did mess up the math in lg74, just saying  <3 

Well either that or Araris did but-

On mobile rn but I don't like Archer antagonizing the fact that Striker dies early? Pointing that out is completely NAI imo, and the times it's antagonized it's usually the elims trying to find something. I personally think it's because of strikers tone more that he dies early. Because other people say things too and don't get killed, but striker says things with a sorta tone that always feels forced/fake to me for some reason? Even though I know it's not. I also don't usually listen to that sorta thing though? Unlike mat, a had a really early village read on striker in the game he was village, so I'm obviously an expert on reading striker now as well :P.

Illwei. Not with Archer. Discarded.

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On 3/19/2021 at 11:43 AM, Quintessential said:

: P you both can't be elims.

???? Yes they can totally be e/e2. It would definitely be hilarious, and it's definitely not a relationship that you can actually get anything out of but they d definitely can both be evil ???

EDIT : and striker what??? It doesn't matter what either of you flip elim. All well know is the team that tried to kill you, but it doesn't change the fact that you can't be on the team that killed you???

Illwei. Disconnected. Not Straff points.

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On 3/19/2021 at 1:03 AM, Illwei said:

I'd also like to look at people who aren't Archer and Striker this cycle, because it seems that a number of people have latched onto them for some reason, when I agree here actually that going after them makes less sense, because they have 50% less chance of being an Elim than the other people. They technically are two people who we know for sure will die, but that doesn't feel like a good reason tbh :P.

I agree with this.

  On 3/19/2021 at 7:55 AM, Quintessential said:

Liranil for the same reasons/tinfoil as last cycle (plus I agree with whoever pointed it out that she's playing a bit more conservatively than usual).

Really? I'm playing more conservatively? I'm definitely posting less b/c I have a lot of homework that's due real soon. But if we're looking at meta (*cough*), how am I different than usual? (Also @ whoever mentioned it before because I missed that)

  On 3/19/2021 at 10:45 AM, Matrim's Dice said:

I'm of the opinion of letting the elim teams kill Archer and Striker and finding a new target today that isn't Liranil :P.

Retweet. 

  On 3/19/2021 at 11:43 AM, Quintessential said:

 

@Illwei @Liranil @StrikerEZ and @Biplet, since I'm too lazy to look back at C1 and I suspect I'm not the only one who is (or who doesn't have the time), would you mind briefly explaining why you voted for STINK?

Honestly, it was mostly random for me, it just seemed like there was more "against" them. I haven't played a ton of games, but I've played enough to become jaded towards C1 votes. I was honestly considering moving my vote to Archer at the end but didn't have time to submit. It was basically an "eh, why not" vote... which isn't the best reasoning, I know.

Okay. So. I have a tinfoilly Archer theory that doesn't contribute much so feel free to ignore it. BUT Archer voted on Striker, right? So if Archer's a Mistborn for one of the elim teams, then his fellow elims may have seen that as a signal and voted to NK Striker...

Idk guys. I've been reading too much Agatha Christie lately so my brain is seeing connections where there probably aren't any. I agree with Matrim that voting people because they weren't on at the end of the cycle last time isn't a good idea. 

Also, I forgot to quote it, but yeah, Archer, I forgot you had more votes early on. Oops. 

So basically, I'm tinfoiling that at least one Mistborn voted on either Striker or Archer, I don't think voting on them does much good since they might be NK'd and the elims know for sure that they Archer or Striker are not on their team(s). 

Also, I'm not a Mistborn, not that that means anything coming from you. 

Anyway... Ventyl @Ventyl (This is a poke vote cuz I don't remember hearing much from them lately.)

Liranil. Theories that attack Archer/release Striker. Noted

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On 3/19/2021 at 0:56 PM, Liranil said:

And, if someone wants to tell me who to vote for, I'm willing to prove that I'm willing to vote for anybody. 

Originally I wasn't sure I liked the reasoning people were using for a vote on Archer. But now with your additional theory about Archer's vote on Striker maybe being taken as a signal for the NK, it does make more sense. And since quite a few people are wondering about them, I think we probably should just resolve it.

Archer

Whysper. Concurs with the theory. Noted.

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... oh dear that's a lot.

On the whole Archer/Striker thing... for one thing, I've never taken a stats class in my life, so the most I know is Punnet Squares two coin flips makes a 25% chance of two heads, 25% chance of two tails, and 50% chance one of each. I've heard of the Monty Hall thing before, but 1) entirely do not understand why it works and 2) don't really know how it applies besides the fact we've got multiple variables... We know they're not Elims together, but both could be on separate Elim teams, and depending on surrounding behavior very much could be. So I don't think probability's the best place to look for alignment here. 

Either the Elims hit two players with extra lives at random - which isn't too outlandish considering probably a quarter of us have them and the Elims are shooting in the dark with their votekill - OR something made the Elims believe that Archer/Striker were Mistborn or other valuable kill targets. I'm much more inclined to believe the latter, particularly with Archer's interactions, but I'm not discounting the former.

Another worry is if the Village is insistent that the Elims will likely take them both out this turn, then the Elims will then avoid hitting them. They might be missing out on killing a Mistborn, but it also will cause a discussion black hole that have plagued the last several games (Dannex in QF50, Striker in LG73, sort-of-Maill in LG74, etc). Plus... you know I won't say that  So if we need the alignment of one of them (probably Archer here, as they've interacted with more players), we should probably vote for them. Vin can likely save herself with double zinc / double brass, Elims not so much. But we should also look at other options than those two... and in the meantime, just... don't Lurch either of them?

 

 

Sorry if that bounced around a lot, I sort of wrote those three things separately. Also I need to go study for / take a test, so see you in like 5 hours.

Also, since it could be relevant: @Liranil, any reason you didn't move from STINK to Archer at the end of last cycle? 

Ash. Nothing. Discarded.

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I have a little time, but still have an assignment left before I'm free for the weekend.

Essentially there's two places we can look. One is if Archer and/or Striker flip over as Elim!Mistborn (or even just Elims, although that muddies things a little).

Elim!Mistborn!Archer links to Liranil, Illwei, TUO, maybe Tani? Probably not Quinn. Would explain hit on Striker, although exactly what that means for Striker I'm not sure.

Elim!Mistborn!Striker links to less... Illwei for the early poke, but I doubt it. I'd have to look at more communications.

 

I trust Quinn and Mat, but not... together. Illwei not so much thanks to her pseudo-defense of Archer. Gears has been NAI, I think... Elim predictions is always something that he's done but in this game it is a bit more problematic. Tani feels good, and Liranil at least feels genuine. Her not voting for Archer isn't quite incriminating enough (I don't exactly have the best track record on that... sorry Gears... and Quinn...).

I'll vote Gears for a reads list or other thoughts. If he comes to post, I'll probably move to Archer. There's enough people linked to him that I'd rather be sure about getting his alignment.

Ash. Trusts Mat. Noted as Cett.

Quote

On 3/19/2021 at 6:53 PM, Illwei said:

My question is why did the Elims want to kill Archer, and, yeah. is that reasoning enough for them to want to kill him again. Our discussing it makes it less likely, but still. Why would we kill off someone who, from the Elims perspective, was a good kill?

EDIT:

Who does Gears link to? you mentioned some people that you think Archer links to, but who does Gears link to?

Someone mentioned that Archer's vote on Striker could be seen as a godfather-esque directive for Team!Archer to attack Striker... it could have gone the other way where Team!Striker decided to defend Striker by attacking the one person who suspected them. Not exactly subtle, but it would explain it better than a random attack... it could also imply Elim!Mistborn!Archer <===> Elim!Mistborn!Striker. 

Gears doesn't really link to anyone. That's the thing I want to see if I can change - at least get some reads if not direct votes or pseudo communications. Archer links to a lot of people, so his alignment is more valuable to learn, but if Gears is actively attempting not to interact with anyone than that's a good reason for (at least initial) suspicion. (Or, what Quinn said )

Ash. More thoughts. Discarded.

Quote

Apologies for my extended absence. I had a robotics tournament and a mathematics competition and homework and a robotics tournament tomorrow and just general business. I'll be back in full swing soon. 

We can assume that Archer and Striker are dead. They are confirmed to be not a member of the faction that killed them, so they will have no urge to kill someone else, and they obviously have/had a role. Let them die. They are dead in a few cycles, even if they get Lurched a bit. The Lurchers have to alternate, so unless two Lurchers working without communications happen to alternate perfectly, they will die quite soon. No need to X them. Do not protect them if you are village. Their continued survival under the premise of no village protectors would confirm elim!Lurchers. There is the chance that one of them is Vin, but even then, protecting them is not sustainable. We would need public Lurchers and the public Vin claim for that, which would mean that both elim factions would be gunning for that person and the village Lurchers could easily be eviserated. The public Vin claim would also be an excellent way for an elim!Mistborn to claim and only get faction-killed by one group and thus only need one Lurcher since their group would know that they are lying while also gaining the trust and frantic mania of the village [reminiscent of MR46!Gears claiming TLR and instantly pocketing the thread]. The only way to stop that would be for the real Vin to counterclaim, which leads to the problems of public Lurchers needed as well. 

I will stipulate that X-ing Archer is fine, and if we want to ensure their death soon, that would probably be better because you can't Lurch the X. Worst possible case, Archer dies C4 if we don't X them and that faction X's them every time [Lurched C1, extra life C2, Lurched C3, killed C4. In this hypothetical scenario, they are almost certainly Mistborn with a Lurcher friend that protected them C1, if the Lurcher instead didn't protect them they die C3, if no Lurcher, they die C2]. Given the lack of quality X targets before us, I would lean towards X-ing Archer because the reasoning for Liranil seems flimsy at best. If I find an actual X candidate that seems to have merit behind its existence, then I would prioritise that above Archer. Then again, the elims might not kill Archer because they know we want to kill them. As such, we need to unionise our opinions. Do we want to X Archer XOR let the elims kill them? Given the current VC, they are probably dead, but I would like to consider alternate candidates.

To elims: You want the other elim faction dead, just like us. You can help us help you by taking out the probable Mistborn that survived. The one you tried to kill. Kill them. Or kill Liranil. That works too. We want to find the suspicious people. You want to find the suspicious people who aren't one of you. We can help each other. Kill the ones we suspect. Narrow the pool. Be our vigilantes. And we'll probably end up mix'ing a dozen times along the way, so do not fear being slaughtered by us. 

A post-by-post analysis of last cycle

1. TUO: Exists
2. Gears: Analysis, offers advice to elims. [I would like to point out that taking flak for that is actually helpful since it means that I'm less likely to be NK'ed in the early cycles. Many thanks.]
3. Mateo: Exists
4. Reading: Speculates 3-4 elims per team [Given the confirmation of only the Mistborn known, I'm leaning towards 3.]
5. Great and Mighty Game Master: No codes.
6. Taniel: How X? [A thought: Taniel isn't new. They played a game before. They voted on people before. Paranoia says it's playing up newness for credit, but without people telling them to do so, would they think of it themself?]
7. Reading: Gneorndin not canon.
8. Ash: Balance.
9. Archer: Analysis, assumes role madness [the reasoning for the assumption is flawed, but it's an acceptable assumption], speculating about elim strategies bad, don't lie [people have already commented], thinks Gears signalling [given that I was genuinely advising the elims, this is not a bad thought, but I do that a lot], votes Gears
10. Matrim: Misunderstandings, guesses 4
11. Pizza: Exists
12. Reading: Corrections
13. Matrim: Concur
14. Illwei: Changing style, notes that village will have a hard time linking elims to each other [especially since there are 2 unrelated factions to kill], don't control thread [while this [More specifically, don't assume people will do what you think they will.]
15. Liranil: Exists
16. Gears: Responses, elim honesty, 
17. Lumi: Elims have hard time too, might NK own [impossible, though could NK other faction], a flawed point about Archer's point [they said they thought it was elim signalling, id est elim!Gears signalling elim friends, which doesn't work if it was pre-written. That was my point.]
18. Ash: RP
19. Weill: Elim lack of coordination a help [This does change the elim strategy significantly. Envision each elim as a deep-cover agent. The goal is survival of the self [and potentially the important operative] because they cannot know anyone else. The goal is to live, and as such, the goal is to walk the line between suspicious and trusted to avoid the X and the NK of the other team. It's not especially difficult to survive that. You just have to seem like easy mix fodder but not actually get X-ed. While the elims as a unit will have a more difficult time acting and killing the optimal targets, as an individual, each elim will find it easier to survive because they don't have to risk themselves to save other people. The elim!Mistborn have the easiest time because they can prioritise saving themself above all else while the standard elims will have to save the Mistborn should they get in trouble.], don't chat about how elims find each other, votes Striker
20. Archer: Responses, don't lie [I think the problem is your phrasing. "It's safe to assume that anyone who lies is an elim." That's simply not true. Not lying is indeed helpful, but there are cases where a villager would lie.], possibly know all members, joking about plan [that was my plan...], retracts Gears, vote manip counts [that was about the elim vote count, not the village one], elims can't coordinate [see post 19 commentary, as a unit they are hampered but as a secret agent, they are helped because they can't be compromised]
21. Quinn: Elim advantage is TMI [Not necessarily. The elim advantage is that it's easier to fail than to succeed.]
22. Illwei: Won't need mix's [Conventional elim warfare is rendered unusable.]
23. STINK: Joke votes Illwei
24. Taniel: Exists, votes Liranil [for no reason]
25. Quinn: Votes STINK [for no reason]
26. STINK: Banter
27. Mateo: Reasoning? Boycotting meta.
28. Archer: Suspicious of Books for following the thread at the same time when TJ clarified something. Votes Quinn for agreeing [terrible reasoning, also not the definition of pocketing]
29. Ash: Fake-claiming isn't necessarily bad, strong roles try to hide, claiming Thug is strange.
30. Pizza: Yes.
31. Bip: Confusion
32. Wei: Confused
33. Bip: Sad cowboy
34. Illwei: Emoji
35. Striker: Alive, Vin don't claim, lying is good, don't out Vin [you either out one of the two paramount elims or the paramount villager. Hard to choose between that.]
36. Wei: Claim if being X-ed.
37. Bip: Cowboy
38. Striker: Always wrong somehow
39. Matrim: Archer's reasoning bad [concur]
40. Illwei: Trust Striker = Evil Striker
41. Mateo: Boycott meta
42. Ash: Should discuss what to do post-Mistborn discovery
43. Striker: Seeker shouldn't reveal Mistborn, avoid X-ing conf!Mistborn, consider them dead [true]
44. Mateo: Leave them be.
45. Ash: Misspeak? Once Mistborn dead can predict more easily
46. Great and Mighty Game Master: Clarifications
47. Lumi: Retracts STINK, votes Archer for "feeling off" [I don't see this, but valid]
48. Pizza: Self-votes, retracts
49. Reading: Don't double post
50. TJ: Don't
51. Pizza: OK
52. STINK: Bait
53. Tominel: Wanted reactions [never a good reason]
54. Mateo: Q kind of strange
55. Quinn: Wasn't a response
56. Striker: Typos, once dead Vin X Mistborn
57. GM: Ventyl gone
58. Archer: 4 person teams viable, claiming Thug unprompted weird, thinks @ing wei was strange, scanners should be public [it depends on the philosophy of the Mistborn and how we react to them, and how important they are], retracts Quinn
59. TJ: Pinchhitter
60. Mat: Votes Archer, suspects distancing but wouldn't work
61. Lumi: Was OK with voting STINK [They got X-ed later, which I note but can't connect to anything]
62. Mateo: Ah.
63. Weill: Confusion
64. Mateo: Clarity
65. Wei: Terrible reads
66. STINK: Banter
67. Casper: Banter
68. Whysper: Exists
69. Taniel: Votes Whysper in greetings, scanner commentary, don't out Mistborn, votes Archer for opinions, votes Illwei
70. Order: Votes Archer because "other information" [What?]
71. Taniel: Votes Archer [They did say why, but more "logical"?]
72. Pizza: Self-votes
73. Order: Banter
74. Mat: Get un-bored
75. Pizza: OK
76. Tani: VC
77. Mat: Wrong
78. Reva: OK
79. Mateo: Clarity
80. Tanielle: Ah
81. Ash: Reasoning on Archer? [Taniel had reasoning in their post]
82. Matrim: Voting Archer for their thoughts about Vin [Valid for D1, but their opinion is legitimate]
83. Taniel: Opinion about scanners [It's a perfectly valid opinion]
84. TUO: Voting Archer? 
85. Mat: No
86. Order: Tries and fails to vote Archer [This is all the alarm bells.]
87. Q: Archer?
88. TJ: Clarity
89. Illwei: Theorises e!M!STINK with e!Q [wrong in post]
90. Q: Theorises e!M!STINK with e!Archer [wrong in post]
91. Weill: ?
92. Mateo: Confusion
93. Quinn: Archer's reaction to STINK vote [if that's the reasoning for Archer suspicion, then it's terrible because STINK is vil]
94. Weill: Thinks e!M!STINK, votes [terrible reasoning here, but it happened]
95. Taniel: Greetings
96. Lumi: Wasn't convince [true]
97. Wei: Q making no sense [concur]
98. Taniel: Concurs with Wei, votes Wei
99. Mat: Responses
100. Wei: Random nonsensical thoughts
101. TJ: Popcorn
102. Quinn: Votes Illwei for telling Q that she's nonsensical [but that point was genuinely strange], a bit of frustration [*head pat*], clarity
103. Mateo: Good points
104. Tani: Banter
105. Lumi: Only conclusions possible when e!M
106. Mat: So 'Maybe"
107. Taniel: Banter
108. Quinn: So easier for elims, good arguments NAI [true, but that's just always true, not a "this game" thing. Elims can have good arguments]
109. Mateo: So hard to get anywhere
110. Lumi: What analysis?
111. Wei: Trying to escape thunderdome, responds [good responses, and I know the last time I said that, evil!Wei, but still]
112. Taniel: Votes Archer, thinks sensical!Wei
113. Liranil: Votes STINK for the same reasons as Qwei [which are terrible reasons, to be fair]. Noted.
114. Ash: Thoughts, wants concurrence about Mistborn
115. Lumi: Responses, good points, frustration [Qwei arguments fairly standard]
116. Archer: Votes Striker, STINK hasn't done anything [true], wants to murder Striker, Gears, Books [I don't see why]
117. Quinn: Mistborn won't seem evil [I do think that the foundation of the reasoning on STINK was terrible, but I wasn't around for it, alas], Archer is if e!M!STINK
118. Weill: Irrationality is irrational, bad reasoning, theory revolves around M!STINK [The fact that I've agreeing with Wei in the Qwei battles recently is concerning. Both sides have good points, as always]
119. Striker: Votes STINK for the reasoning making sense [when it doesn't in my humble opinion, but alas my mind is most likely coloured with the thoughts of the futuresighted]
120. Lumi: Retracts Wei, still Qweing.
121. Wei: Votes
122. Ash: Need a bingo card
123. Striker: Banter
124. Wei: Banter
125. Ash: Banter
126. Q: Banter
127. Ash: Banter
128. Qui: Banter
129. Liranil: Banter
130. Mateo: Doesn't agree with Quinn, just notes response, don't out Mistborn right away, murder is good [concur]
131. Lumi: Outed Seeker is dead [true]
132. Wei: Banter
133. Q: Banter
134. Taniel: Banter
135. Tani: Departing
136. Mat: People voting STINK for what other people did? [I know, it's strange]
137. Wei: Agrees, but vote doesn't change
138. Liranil: Want other target?
139. Matrim: Yes, current vote
140. Liranil: Who?
141. Whysper: Hello, sharing info good
142. Pizza: Confused
143. Whysper: Interrogation
144. Pizza: First game, pineapple
145. Bip: Votes STINK because confused [I don't like this reasoning]
146. Reading: STINK thing strange
147. Pizza: Pineapple
148. Striker: VC, asks for votes
149. Bip: Wants to vote [you don't have to vote D1. I don't usually vote D1]
150. Reading: Going to investigate Archer
151. Striker: Ties kill random, manip
152. TJ: No vote manip
153. Mat: STINK train bad, no manip, bip odd but one post
154. Ash: Vote manip different, reasoning on STINK?
155. Bip: Scientia potentia est
156. Lumi: Confused, no one thinks STINK is suspicious, votes Liranil
157. STINK: Confused, no defense for no offense
158. Ruby: Not voting
159. Whysper: Votes Gears for helping elims [valid]
160. Reading: Votes Liranil for piggybacking on reasoning, STINK train weird
161. Mateo: Elims might be hesitant [no, can be bold since trying to catch elims too. Just fewer elims]
162. Ash: Has time...
163. Reading: Can't understand Liranil vote
164. Lumi: Villagers train too
165. Books: Votes Gears for helping elims
166. TJ: VC
167. Weill: Typos
168. Quinn: Typos...
169. Matrim: Error of timezones
170. Q: No
171. Mat: Oh
172. Reading: No
173. Liranil: Voted for STINK so theories confirmed and no guessing later
174. Mat: Infokill for not doing anything ridiculous [concur]
175. Quinn: Mostly hypothetical
176. Ash: Finds interesting that people find others suspicious but link to e!M!STINK. Kill Archer
177. Q: Vote Liranil!
178. Liranil: Willing to vote anyone but self
179. Illwei: Then vote.
180. Ash: Votes Archer, doesn't know why.

Alt candidates from C1: Archer for thinking Seekers should out Mistborn, Liranil for piggybacking on reasoning. I note Lumi but do not find them suspicious. I vaguely remember noting Books but I don't remember why. Archer is an acceptable X. I would accept Liranil if only to escape the Archer/Quinn/STINK trio. I do think that the reasons on Archer amount to little, but the reasons on anyone else are also few and far between. I have been ninja'd dozens of times while writing this. If you want me to address something, just yell at me and I'll hopefully respond. 

Gears. I would like to say that the Shard editor is lagging. Discarded.

Quote

 On 3/19/2021 at 8:32 PM, Liranil said:

but that felt more like an attempt at a don't-exe-Archer countertrain.

Heyo

for me it was, because I still think that we shouldn't kill Striker or Archer, because if the Elim team wanted them dead, then why are we killing them?

EDIT:

  On 3/19/2021 at 8:45 PM, Liranil said:

Lollll now the lack of resistance is making me nervous...

Hey wait that's my line

 On 3/19/2021 at 8:32 PM, Liranil said:

but that felt more like an attempt at a don't-exe-Archer countertrain.

Heyo

for me it was, because I still think that we shouldn't kill Striker or Archer, because if the Elim team wanted them dead, then why are we killing them?

EDIT:

  On 3/19/2021 at 8:45 PM, Liranil said:

Lollll now the lack of resistance is making me nervous...

Hey wait that's my line

Wei. Doesn't want Striker dead. Noted.

Quote

 On 3/19/2021 at 8:49 PM, Quintessential said:

Guyyyssss when looking at votes and thinking about voting, remember that the elims don't know each other's identities, and that there are two different teams : P

I think this is key to remember. The Elim dynamics are so different in this game.

1. There are two teams, so half the Elims definitely don't know each other and are actually against each other.

2. On the same Elim team, they only know their Mistborn, and the Mistborn doesn't know anyone.

3. The Elims don't share a doc, so they can't coordinate. Their only pseudo-coordination is to try to guess what their Mistborn wants from them.

Additionally, it's kind of going too far to think the Elims specifically wanted either Archer or Striker dead for a strong mech reason. There wasn't even a chance for a scan or anything, so they have no idea on the roles for anyone. The only thing they might go off of would be if the players hinted at their role. If those players were specifically targeted instead of randomly, it would be for a reason like them guessing that their Mistborn wanted the player dead. Or to get a player off their Mistborn. Or that they just thought the player was a threat in general.

Whysper. Good point. Discarded

Quote

Gears is here, so Archer it is.

  On 3/19/2021 at 6:53 PM, Illwei said:

my...do you mean my outright defence of Archer?

Uh... yeah, that one. More specifically you pushing the probability idea, which both Archer and Striker seemed to agree on, which is another reason I think both of them being Elimistborn is actually fairly likely.

  On 3/19/2021 at 8:32 PM, Liranil said:

Why does Elim!Mistborn!Archer link to me and TUO?

I am not a big fan of how 3 people jumped onto voting Gears just because... he wasn't talking? I mean I get poke votes but that felt more like an attempt at a don't-exe-Archer countertrain. For that reason, Experience Archer.

You because, for better or worse, you didn't vote them last cycle. Not a strong tie, but something I'm keeping in mind. Plus your reaction to me asking felt... not bad, but not good? You didn't take the easy ways out of "I didn't see in time" or "I didn't want to change the exe so late", but it didn't feel much better. 

TUO for mainly the opposite reason, they voted Archer for a very small reason that I'm still quite confused about. Could be signaling.

And... it kind of was a countertrain? People still seem conflicted (Illwei) that we're exeing a probable kill target, and Gears isn't usually this quiet. But I think exeing Archer's the right call here. Insurance against Lurchers or mercurial Eliminators.

 

*Wonders if everyone "forgetting" the main mechanic of the game is Elims lying about themselves or just an SE-wide amnesia*

 

I also avoid using a notes system, which gives me more time to RP/post with a slight side effect of being completely wrong  GM PM can be fun though. And works as notes, if you can be consice.

  On 3/19/2021 at 9:05 PM, Illwei said:

  On 3/19/2021 at 9:03 PM, Archer said:

Also, I thought of a great way to get Striker NKed alongside me by posting something near rollover about me being an elim and asking for them to be killed, but frankly, I don't want to be responsible for their early death if it turns out I'm really on their team. It'd make for an awkward dead doc. 

uh, this is blatantly claiming Elim???

I think he means "their team" as the Village team. But I also... nope, not saying that.

 

I've nearly been ninja'd a full page writing this it's the Discord Gold Rush all over again

Ash. Half right. Discarded.

Conclusion as of C2: Ash is noted as possible Cett based on interactions, but not strongly. Wei remains noted. Liranil has been noted as possible Straff, as has Whysper to a weaker extent. Order is possible but unlikely Cett

In conclusion, Illwei. 

[---]

37 minutes ago, Gears said:

Liranil has been noted as possible Straff, as has Whysper to a weaker extent.

are

are you here?

[Random Bystander]

9 hours ago, Gears said:

How could you, whichever elim team happened to attack me? Also, how could you not kill the Wei? I still suspect the Wei of being Straff. Cetts, you have failed me. If you were the ones who attacked me, I am triply disappointed. If the Straff were the ones to kill me, then I'm only doubly disappointed. However, the Wei's continued existence is a failing on your part. Whysper had left no impression on me in the slightest, so this is possibly a random, a scan, or a redirect. My own near-death reinforces my suspicion of the Wei since I cannot conjure a reason why I would be killed [plentiful suspicion] save for my continued push of Wei murder. [Well, there is that other reason, but that's not that important...] My brilliant plan to not die predicated on not dying ever, so that's ruined. Should I reveal all? I feel like it's over. I depart for slumber, so scream at me, and I shall respond on the morrow.

My incomplete CTRL-F of Striker nearly died when C4 was locked, but I saved it. It can be found here. There was a conclusion in there about Taniel being elim, but that's outdated and proven correct. 

  Reveal hidden contents

C1

  Reveal hidden contents

From Illwei. A poke vote on a person. Could be just a poke, could be random. Noted

Biplet. Commentary about existence. Discarded.

Striker. Interacts with the Wei's poke. The opinions aren't especially implicatory. 

Illwei. Reasonable commentary on a semi-flawed opinion. Discarded.

Bip. Banter. Discarded.

Striker. Responses. No connections.

Mateo. We know they aren't connected. Discarded.

Wei. Banter that turned out to be true. Noted.

Mateo. Obviously, Matrim's reads are just always wrong. Discarded.

Ash. A reasonable response to points. Discarded.

Striker. Connections difficult. Obviously in hindsight not wanting outed Mistborns to be X-ed seems to be a product of being an e!M. [Sidenote: If you scan a Mistborn now, DO NOT out them because all other Mistborns are dead.]

Mateo. Of course the other e!M would agree.

Ash. Notes the Freudian slip. Good commentary. Discarded. [Could be one-way distancing, I'm more inclined to think that Ash is just being reasonable.]

Striker. Yes, cultivate your words so you seem as village as can be. Discarded.

Archer [snipped]. They are dead. Discarded.

Taniel. Agrees with Striker about keeping Mistborn hidden. Noted.

Archer. Wants to X Striker. They are dead. Discarded.

Striker. Nothing really stands out. Discarded.

Striker. Banter. Discarded.

Illwei. Banter. Discarded.

Ash. Banter. Discarded.

Lumi. Banter. Discarded.

Ash. Banter. Discarded.

Mat. Half-right. Discarded.

Striker. Dead. Discarded.

Striker. No connection. Discarded.

Mateo. Reasonable response. Discarded.

Lumi. Wrong words. Discarded.

Ruby. Response. Discarded.

 Wei. Correction. Discarded.

Quinn. Error. Discarded

Conclusion as of C1: Wei and Taniel seem connected. Wei's could reasonably be discarded and are currently left as the complimentary side of tinfoil. Taniel's could be a valid opinion but thus far, the opinion was shared by elims. Tani's could also connect to just being an elim. 

C2

  Reveal hidden contents

Striker. No connections. Discarded.

Bip. Reasonable reaction. Discarded.

Illwei. Somewhat accurate banter. Discarded.

Quinn. Ties conclusion to wrong person. Might have been noted, but they are dead, so discarded.

Bip. Defending Archer. Might have been noted, but Cher is dead. Discarded

Mateo. Ties conclusion to wrong person. Might have been noted, but they are dead. Discarded

Q. Response to other thing. Dead. Discarded.

Striker. Dead. Discarded.

Illiad. Not about Striker. Discarded.

Mat. Good point. Not connecting. Discarded.

Quinn. Unrelated misunderstanding.

Liranil. Implies one of them is Vin. A reasonable assumption. Somewhat noted.

Striker. Nothing. Discarded.

Quinn. I would like to note that the Qwei stuff seems to get more heated every game, which is mildly concerning. Discarded.

Wei. They were good, but not for long... Discarded

Lumi. Jinxed it. Discarded.

Archer. Good points. Discarded.

Striker. No connections. Discarded.

Mat. Unconfident about both. Discarded.

Striker. No connections. Discarded.

Cinnamon. Banter. Discarded.

Bip. Implying village. Reasonable opinion. Somewhat noted.

Bip. True. Discarded.

 Mat. No connections. Discarded.

Striker. No connections. Discarded.

Bip. Banter. Discarded.

Striker. Banter. Discarded.

Mat. Commentary. Discarded.

Kale. Banter. Discarded.

Mat. Banter. Discarded.

Striker. Prophet. Discarded.

HERE BEGINS THE C5 THOUGHTS. ABOVE WAS OUTDATED C4 THOUGHTS

Order. I don't like this. However, I can't quite articulate why I don't like it. Noted for Cett.

Archer. Dead. Good responses. Discarded.

Striker. Trying to avoid getting murdered. Discarded.

Illwei. Actively defending/pointing people away from Archer and Striker. Noted.

Quinn. Dead. Reverse connection. Discarded.

Quinn. Dead. Inverse connection. Discarded.

Matrim. Encourages leaving them. Discarded.

Bip. Questions. Discarded

Striker. No connections. Discarded.

Quinn. Backing down from things. Discarded.

Archer. Wants to leave them. Discarded.

Matrim. Dead. Discarded.

[FROM THIS POINT ONWARDS, ALL DEAD PEOPLE WILL BE SKIPPED]

Illwei. Not with Archer. Discarded.

Illwei. Disconnected. Not Straff points.

Liranil. Theories that attack Archer/release Striker. Noted

Whysper. Concurs with the theory. Noted.

Ash. Nothing. Discarded.

Ash. Trusts Mat. Noted as Cett.

Ash. More thoughts. Discarded.

Gears. I would like to say that the Shard editor is lagging. Discarded.

Wei. Doesn't want Striker dead. Noted.

Whysper. Good point. Discarded

Ash. Half right. Discarded.

Conclusion as of C2: Ash is noted as possible Cett based on interactions, but not strongly. Wei remains noted. Liranil has been noted as possible Straff, as has Whysper to a weaker extent. Order is possible but unlikely Cett

In conclusion, Illwei. 

Uh... You do realize that Illwei could be Cett, and they could have tried attacking, but because of Illwei being on their side, Illwei wasn't attacked. (Unless I'm remembering the rules wrong... I should read over those again.) But who knows. (Yes people, this is me trying to be helpful.)

[---]

2 hours ago, Random Bystander said:

Uh... You do realize that Illwei could be Cett, and they could have tried attacking, but because of Illwei being on their side, Illwei wasn't attacked. (Unless I'm remembering the rules wrong... I should read over those again.) But who knows. (Yes people, this is me trying to be helpful.)

In which case his vote on me would still make sense, so- xD

[Random Bystander]

3 minutes ago, Illwei said:

In which case his vote on me would still make sense, so- xD

Yeah, true. 

[---]

Almost 24 hours into the day and uh

2 votes.

how pog.

[The Unknown Ajah]

54 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Almost 24 hours into the day and uh

2 votes.

how pog.

Who would we vote for? I have no suspicions because we've had a prime suspect every round until now. I probably won't vote this round unless good evidence is presented. 

[---]

Just now, The Unknown Order said:

Who would we vote for? I have no suspicions because we've had a prime suspect every round until now. I probably won't vote this round unless good evidence is presented. 

Prime suspect every round? yeah, because people talk and decide on one. can't talk and decide if people don't do that :P.

TUO

[The Unknown Ajah]

Just now, Illwei said:

Prime suspect every round? yeah, because people talk and decide on one. can't talk and decide if people don't do that :P.

TUO

Do you have a grudge against me? This is your second vote on me across games . My point is second round we had two people who survived the kill, one of which was pretty much guaranteed to be mistborn (and one was, if not the one I suspected the most). Then in the third round someone once again survived the kill. Having encountered one thug already the chances of them being elim were very high, so we talked about killing them and went back and forth until they claimed elim, so we killed them. Then in the fourth round we picked up the loose threads of the last round. Now we are stuck with no threads, no candidates, and no discussion. 

[---]

Well

Books

I still think Books/Devo/Reading have a higher chance of flipping elim.

[Biplet]

37 minutes ago, Illwei said:

TUO

Okay so I’m curious of your reasoning. You were pretty adamant about books. Why TUO over books?

edit: shard didn’t load. Pls disregard

Edited March 25, 2021 by Biplet

[The Unknown Ajah]

23 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Books/Devo/Reading

Books in the devotary of reading?

[Biplet]

@Ashbringer wondering why you wanted to leave the exe up to RNG last cycle

[Shard of Reading]

20 minutes ago, Biplet said:

@Ashbringer wondering why you wanted to leave the exe up to RNG last cycle

I interpreted it as them wanting to keep Tani alive to see what they had to say, and not having enough time to organize a switch onto Gears.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

Tani should have learned something over three cycles that would be worth saying to attempt to save her life, but Terris does mean that any reprieve would be short lived. Decent enough chance that Tani learned something about Gears combined with his survival means it's not a good idea to vote for him. Tani choosing Gears over Books as someone who already had a vote should be either knowing something about Gears or thinking the chances of Books being a Cett were too high to risk voting for them.

[Ashbringer]

Need to write an essay today, so I'm going to be gone until that's done most likely. But I have Friday off so I won't be completely useless this cycle.

I was relatively torn on Tani. On one hand, her late claim of gaining info this cycle seemed like a way to get out of the exe, but it would also have only bought a cycle or two at the most if she didn't come up with results, and I had no idea how she could have info that directly helps the Elims vs helps the Village / helps everybody. So I thought it was an odd play either way... which I've learned is not always an Elim tell.

My idea for why Village!Tani would need an extra cycle was that Seeker!Tani had scanned someone not burning a metal, which (assuming this is role madness) would mean either 1) they were Smoked, 2) they forgot/didn't want to for some reason, 3) they're Terris or Thug, or 4) they put in an Elim kill. A consecutive Seeking coming up with nothing would more likely mean 1 or 3, versus coming up with something means it was 2 or 4, and 2 can be ruled out based on activity or role. Inefficient, but it works.

So I was willing to give Tani a chance at giving a defense, but I preferred to leave it as "a chance", I guess. (I did intentionally wait until a minute before rollover to tie it, as I didn't really want to turn it into a guaranteed Gears exe.)

[Gears]

[PRIMARY OBJECTIVE: STUDY VIN]

Roko the Basilisk continued on the long march towards Luthadel. Towards the last Mistborn. Towards the objective. It was a long journey, and by the time it arrived, many had fallen. But the objective remained in her ivory tower, acting in a manner more befitting of a lovestruck individual than the one who was to save them. And yes, Vin had a charming beau, but the armies were at the gates, and she did nothing. All that power at her fingertips, all that metal on her tongue, and she did nothing. Disappointing. But her power was not. The power of a Mistborn and the Connections to the mists and the way her spiritweb had bent around the spike in her ear. Magnificent. Useful. It wanted. It wanted.

[UPDATING PRIMARY OBJECTIVE]

[PRIMARY OBJECTIVE: ACQUIRE VIN]

At long last, it arrived at Luthadel, the location that housed Vin. There were two possible methods of acquiring Vin. 1. Steal Vin, the person, snatching her from this land entire, parsing the individual as a person instead of as a copy. 2. Take Vin, the copy, replicating everything as best it could and snatching it away, possibly co-opting powers in the meantime. Obviously, it would do the second. While Vin was considered to be a hero, the person itself was too fragile for continued experiments. It needed a copy. It wanted the power. The spiritweb could be replicated. Connection could be replicated. Power could be replicated. However... Identity is a fickle thing. Memory is a fickle thing. Mimicry is a fickle thing. Separating the two, taking the power without the person who wields it, would not be viable. The best way to take is to become.

[UPDATING PRIMARY OBJECTIVE]

[PRIMARY OBJECTIVE: BECOME VIN]

There was the objective, lingering within the castle walls. She had left far less often after Zane's death, after the attack on her life, after the chains that tied her to the world beyond the iron doors snapped one by one. Roko advanced, following her back through the winding passageways of the building. It timed its footfalls to land exactly in time with hers as she moved distractedly towards her chambers, taking from her belt several vials of metal flakes. Finally, it felt that the two of them had gone far enough. No one was nearby, so it stopped walking, the abrupt change in sound making Vin whirl around to face it.

"Who are you?" Vin asked, backing away from the stranger. "How did you get in here? We have guards."

"Vin," Roko said, disregarding the question entirely. "I have come for you."

"Well, that much is obvious," Vin replied, reaching for a vial of metal but finding nothing. "What–"

Roko lunged forwards, grabbing Vin's wrist in its hand and staring her in the eyes. "I have come for your power."

Vin began to fight back, but though she was a formidable wielder of metal, without her Allomancy, she was but a mortal, and Roko was not. She yelled and shrieked and howled, but it did not care to listen. Instead, it whistled a familiar tune and let the chains of light come undone. 

"I take from you your power," it said coldly as the Aons spun around them both, latching onto her and twisting her essence into chains of light. "I take from you your spiritweb." The chains wove themselves together, becoming a replica of her. "I take from you your memory, your Connections, your Identity." More chains, more weaving, some pooling within the vaguely head-shaped section of the web, linking outwards to a place beyond its vision. "I take from you your titles, your links to your power, and I make them my own." The light faded, and Roko the Basilisk in the aspect of Vin, Heir to the Survivor, Lady Mistborn, Ascendant Warrior walked away, leaving Vin, half-skaa child, distrustful child, lucky child, part of Camon's Crew behind. She still had the memories of her life up to this point, but her skills, her tendencies, her personality were all reset. Given enough time, the spiritweb might grow back, but for now, this Vin was out of commission.

Roko/Vin drank a vial of zinc and a vial of brass and burned both, letting emotional Allomancy stain its/her voice and meddle with the broken Vin's mind. "Go to sleep," Vin whispered to the child a version of her had once been in a manner that could possibly be called kind. "It will all be over soon."

---

Firstly, disregard about half of the conclusions of Tired!Gears. Tired!Gears is a velociraptor that cannot remember the names of the dead. Secondly, my survival means that I am dead. I am aware that the relevant statement seems like an oxymoron, but it is true. The faction that struck me down will kill me once again. As such, I request protection for a singular reason. Salutations, I am your darling Venture Mistborn, and I am going to die. Be not afraid. My life was never especially important, and I have an ace that should help you winnow the enemy down. Expect a lovely post ~25 minutes before rollover. Also, my master plan to not be scanned as Mistborn while also gaining relevant knowledge seems to have failed. Perhaps the Seeker masquerade was an appealing target as well. Maybe Tineye masks would have been superior? Alas. I lament fate. I have failed my personal [id est, unoffical] win-con of surviving, Ascending, and starting a book club with my other character of Shardic might. I have learned nothing useful as of yet, though I soon will, unless everyone willingly abstains from killing the confirmed village Mistborn, which is an act of folly and poisoned wine. Sidenote: Matrim was very much lying because atium doesn't let you take extra actions. Interesting facts!

Some miscellaneous thoughts: Assume both elims attack. There are [3 | 2] Straff and [2 | 1] Cett. There is a [1/2 * [1/2 * 1/3 + 1/2 * 1/2] + 1/2 * [1/2 * 1/2 + 1/2 * 1] = 7/12] chance at me redirecting one kill. If I'm not Lurched, I die. If I am Lurched once, I have a 5/12 chance at dying. There may not be a Lurcher. I am dead. Unless people are scared of being revealed by atium and all abstain from killing me. Be not afraid. Strike me down.

Sidenote: Congratulations, @Ashbringer, you almost killed your Mistborn. If RNG had been against me, I would be dead. Maybe this compensates for you stealing the Shadowblaze from Books back in LG73. 

[Random Bystander]

23 minutes ago, Gears said:

Strike me down.

...With all your hatred and your journey towards the dark side will be complete.

[Biplet]

Do we have ANY suspicions?? Anyone??? I know our main candidates are Books and Illwei but they feel like shots in the dark at best, and there's still not a ton of sound reasoning

[Flyingbooks]

I guess I'll out my vote on Illwei. There's a bit of evidence against her, I'm not particularly reading her as village, and I don't want to die.

I still don't understand the suspicion of me. It seems like the only point of evidence against me is my activity levels last cycle, which was due to IRL stuff.