Mid-Range Game 49: Lode of Luthadel

[Illwei]

Books, do you think that there might be three?

[Ashbringer he/him]

I highly doubt there's only one Elim among the seven of us. Or at the least we shouldn't assume so.

Here's my D1 Mat/Striker - I'm trying to just narrow it down to objective things at first, namely Naming, Mentioning/@ing, Voting, Quoting. Might add on D2 if I feel up to it. I'm also going to do mentions of Zane/Gneorndin, mainly because Tani and Reading both talked about Gneorndin really early D1. (But... I... also talked about Zane/Gneorndin D1. A lot. Sigh.)

Dead players are colored with their alignment - Orange for Cett, Purple for Straff, Blue for Village. Living players are not. (Not even you, Gears.) Things involving living players are bolded

D1 Matrim:

Spoiler

• Mat posts D1
• Gears states Gneorndin
• Tani states Gneorndin
• Reading states Gneorndin
• Ash states Gneorndin x3
• Mat quotes Reading and Tani
• Reading quotes Mat
• Mat quotes Reading
• Mat quotes Quinn
• Archer mentions Mat (specifically "Mat", not 'mat' somewhere within a word)
• Mat quotes Archer
• Illwei quotes Mat
• Mat quotes Illwei
• Ash mentions Gneordin (sic) x2
• Striker quotes Mat x3 (you never know...)
• Mat quotes Ash
• Ash mentions Gneordin (sic)
• Mat quotes Quinn
• Quinn quotes Mat
• Archer quotes, mentions Mat
• Mat votes Archer
• Quinn tags Mat
• Mat quotes Quinn
• Illwei quotes Mat x2
• Mat quotes Illwei x2
• Tani votes Whysper-->Archer-->Illwei (possible voting on Mat's vote target)
• TUO votes Archer (same)
• Tani votes Archer (... same)
• Mat quotes Pizza
• Pizza quotes Mat
• Tani mentions Mat x2 (in vote count)
• Mat quotes Tani
• Tani quotes Mat
• Mat quotes Tani
• Tani quotes Mat
• Ash quotes Mat
• Mat quotes Ash
• TUO quotes Mat
• Mat quotes TUO and... Mat
• TUO quotes Mat
• TJ quotes... wait a minute
• Mat quotes Quinn
• Mat quotes Quinn x3 (segmented quotes)
• Quinn quotes Mat x3
• Quinn quotes Mat
• Mat quotes Quinn
• Quinn quotes Mat
• Mat quotes Quinn
• Quinn quotes Mat
• Illwei mentions, quotes Mat
• Ashbringer quotes Mat
• Quinn mentions Mat x2
• Quinn mentions Mat (in vote count)
• Mat quotes Illwei, Ash, Archer
• Illwei quotes Mat
• Illwei quotes Mat
• Liranil quotes Mat
• Mat quotes Liranil
• Liranil quotes Mat
• Striker mentions Mat (in vote count)
• Mat quotes Striker
• Biplet quotes Mat
• Mat quotes Reading
• Reading quotes Mat
• Quinn quotes Mat
• Mat quotes Quinn
• Reading quotes Mat
• Mat quotes Liranil

Thoughts:

• Most of the bouncing posts (back and forth quoting more than twice) involving Mat are also involving Reading/Tani, with the exception of Quinn (probably because, well, Quinn posts a lot).
• Most momentary interactions (of living players) are Illwei and Ash (me).
• TUO is interesting, as they both quickly voted alongside Mat and Tani and had a 3-post quote chain with Mat, initiated by TUO.
• No one voted for Mat D1, that I could see.

 

D1 Striker:

Spoiler

• Gears mentions Zane x2 (plus one in RP but I'll ignore that)
• Ash mentions Zane
• Mat mentions Zane
• Illwei votes Striker
• Biplet quotes Illwei (and her Striker vote)
• Striker posts D1, tags Illwei, mentions Zane
• Illwei quotes Striker x4 (split post)
• Biplet quotes Striker
• Striker quotes Illwei x2
• Ash quotes Striker, mentions Zane x5
• Striker quotes Mat x3, Illwei, Ash
• Ash quotes Striker, mentions Zane
• Striker quotes Ash
• Archer quotes Striker
• Tani quotes Striker
• Tani states Striker (in vote count)
• Archer votes Striker
• Striker tags Archer, votes Stink
• Quinn tags Striker, mentions Striker (in vote count)
• Striker quotes Ash
• Illwei quotes Striker
• Ash quotes Striker
• Striker tags all nonvoters
• Striker quotes Biplet
• Mat quotes Striker
• Quinn quotes Striker
• Random Bystander quotes Striker, mentions Zane

Thoughts:

• Striker interacted a lot less, and also a lot less with Biplet (at least D1) 
• Again the main living players who interacted with Striker was Illwei and Ash, with Ash having a large block near the beginning. Great.
• Illwei poke-voted Striker early on in the game - Striker had not yet posted.
• Random Bystander quoted Striker near the very end of the game

 

Books did not interact with either Mat or Striker D1; neither did Experience --> Devotary of Spontaneity. TUO only interacted with Mat, RandBy only interacted with Striker. Ash and Illwei interacted with both. Gears... meh.

Apparently I talked about Gneorndin... and Zane... a lot.

[Flyingbooks]

53 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

TUO is interesting, as they both quickly voted alongside Mat and Tani and had a 3-post quote chain with Mat, initiated by TUO

TUO

This behavior fits with my theory that elims would reach out to their Mistborn and try to coordinate with people who seem like possible teammates.

[Illwei]

eh

TUO

this works /shrug

EDIT:

but also Books hmmmmm

Edited March 27, 2021 by Illwei

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

1 hour ago, Flyingbooks said:

TUO

This behavior fits with my theory that elims would reach out to their Mistborn and try to coordinate with people who seem like possible teammates.

How can that be considered signaling? I didn't know that that was a thing.

[Ashbringer he/him]

@The Unknown Order, @Flyingbooks, @Random Bystander. Do you have anything to add as reasons we shouldn’t vote you out? Suspicions? Thoughts? Scan results? Because besides these early interactions (and the general D2/3 chaos) I have nothing to distinguish you.

Same for @Devotary of Spontaneity. We know your role, but because of being a pinch-hitter there’s not much to go off of on you either.

[Illwei]

Can we ask the Elims very nicely to kill off these four people

would be v kind of yous

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

1 hour ago, Ashbringer said:

@The Unknown Order, @Flyingbooks, @Random Bystander. Do you have anything to add as reasons we shouldn’t vote you out? Suspicions? Thoughts? Scan results? Because besides these early interactions (and the general D2/3 chaos) I have nothing to distinguish you.

Same for @Devotary of Spontaneity. We know your role, but because of being a pinch-hitter there’s not much to go off of on you either.

What really are the main points of suspicion. The one reason I've seen is nearly completely NAI. If that isn't enough to convince you, my role doesn't really make sense with the dead elims. 

[Ashbringer he/him]

34 minutes ago, The Unknown Order said:

What really are the main points of suspicion. The one reason I've seen is nearly completely NAI. If that isn't enough to convince you, my role doesn't really make sense with the dead elims. 

I'd say in this game it's very AI. You haven't done too much because of low post counts, but what you did do C1 was encourage a now-confirmed Cett to vote on the same target that the now-confirmed Cett Mistborn voted on. Maybe I'll have time to ISO you, but I doubt it. 

Meanwhile, Books and RandBy have done almost nothing AI, because they have similar small post counts. I'm also really not liking Books showing up to vote on my reasons with no comment on anything else. ( @Flyingbooks, I know you're around...)

And... that... doesn't give me any clue to your role. At all. 

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

4 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

And... that... doesn't give me any clue to your role. At all

I realize that, I didn't really want to say my role, but here goes. I'm Terris, why does that matter? The team you say I am on already has a Terris, that distro doesn't make sense. Why would there be two Terris.

Now for what I have done, unfortunately, I forgot to put in an action for several turns, probably because "I would like to know something about someone" isn't the most stimulating thing to write, plus I'm forgetful. But what I did learn is a little tidbit, for either today or after you exe me. Ashbringer didn't burn metal one turn, but did burn another turn. The metal they burned was steel. I won't vote Ashbringer because I don't think it's necessarily AI. They may have forgotten, or they may have not wanted to redirect to someone. The former is a bit of a lame excuse, but a realistic one. The latter is just... dumb? Why wouldn't potentially redirect the kill? But there is a chance they did do the kill that round. Take your own opinions on that, but just do this if you exe me. Consider that next cycle.

[Illwei]

5 minutes ago, The Unknown Order said:

I'm Terris,

This makes me think you're Straff even more Tbh. We had a Village Terris and a Cett Terris flip. Yeah.

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

12 minutes ago, Illwei said:

This makes me think you're Straff even more Tbh. We had a Village Terris and a Cett Terris flip. Yeah.

If I had absolutely no suspicion before now, revealing Terris would gain me no suspicion. The only bit of suspicion on me is based on me being Cett. Therefore I have only one piece of evidence for each elim faction and none for both, with some for neither. 

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

2 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

We know your role, but because of being a pinch-hitter there’s not much to go off of on you either.

Last cycle was the first time I used my role, since I didn't realise how rioting worked until C4 and the only other thing I could have done with it was force Quinn to be the 14th vote on Matrim C3.

16 minutes ago, The Unknown Order said:

Now for what I have done, unfortunately, I forgot to put in an action for several turns, probably because "I would like to know something about someone" isn't the most stimulating thing to write, plus I'm forgetful. But what I did learn is a little tidbit, for either today or after you exe me. Ashbringer didn't burn metal one turn, but did burn another turn. The metal they burned was steel. I won't vote Ashbringer because I don't think it's necessarily AI. They may have forgotten, or they may have not wanted to redirect to someone. The former is a bit of a lame excuse, but a realistic one. The latter is just... dumb? Why wouldn't potentially redirect the kill? But there is a chance they did do the kill that round. Take your own opinions on that, but just do this if you exe me. Consider that next cycle.

This doesn't seem likely I'm completely misunderstanding what you're trying to say. Terris don't get to choose who they target or what kind of information they learn so the chances that you got two metal scans on the same player in fewer than five cycles seems highly improbable. Ash plausibly does have steel but I disbelieve that you had two scans on him enough that I'd vote for The Unknown Order. I do think we need to kill a Straff today to make sure it isn't tied 2-2 by tomorrow, but I'm actually not sure Order is a Terris. I'd bet on a Seeker, and since Cett had a Seeker it would be reasonable for Straff to have one too.

[Illwei]

1 minute ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

I do think we need to kill a Straff today to make sure it isn't tied 2-2 by tomorrow,

mmmmm if that isn't a Cett sentence if I ever heard one

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

What conceivable reason would I have to lie about my role? Also, why are we assuming there are four slums each? If there were four each why would TJ make it so they know less people? Since they wouldn't know one person anyways if it was four.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

Just now, Illwei said:

mmmmm if that isn't a Cett sentence if I ever heard one

2-2 is the worst scenario because depending on who's still alive we'd have to win two tied exes in a row with a 75% chance of a Straff win, while a 2(Straff)-1-1 is only one exe that needs to randomly kill a Straff. I guess that second one also wouldn't be great.

1 minute ago, The Unknown Order said:

What conceivable reason would I have to lie about my role? Also, why are we assuming there are four slums each? If there were four each why would TJ make it so they know less people? Since they wouldn't know one person anyways if it was four.

You would lie about your role because you're accused of being a Cett, so you say 'wait, I can't be a Cett because I have the same role as an already dead Cett'. Are you going to stick with the story that you somehow managed to randomly scan the same player with the same random scan twice despite not submitting actions every cycle? Four elims is more powerful than three, so making them know fewer people could be a way of weakening them. We don't know if they knew anyone other than their Mistborn though, so that's not a super useful path to take.

[Ashbringer he/him]

Well, I can confirm I'm the Coinshot, because that's going to get assumed anyway. I'll wait on revealing what I did until I get an answer back from TJ, because I always thought Terris was a passive ability... that would be strange for the same scan to hit me twice, but I've seen weirder things.

12 minutes ago, Illwei said:

This makes me think you're Straff even more Tbh. We had a Village Terris and a Cett Terris flip. Yeah.

... I'm voting for TUO because I think he's Cett, Illwei...

 

Unless there's somehow only one Straff left, this is exe-lo. 4 Villagers, 3 Elims, 3 deaths today unless Gears gets lucky with iron or there's another Thug out here somewhere... killing off Cett would make it a standard game near the end but killing off one of the Straffs prevents a potential 2v2. 

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

Those are good points against me although I'm not lying. The chances aren't that unlikely considering there's a Seeker scan, a tineye scan, and... what else? We actually do know they only knew their Mistborn because TJ clarified that.

[Ashbringer he/him]

An "inverse Tineye" scan iirc. I'm not sure what the functional difference between that and a Tineye scan is unless it sees all visits instead of just 1, though.

[Illwei]

Yall can think he's a cett

he knows you're a tineye idk how things work. If he's a Terris then I think he's a straff

Kinda conflicted on wanting to vote Devo again this cycle now because I think he's straff and not Cett, and if we get the last cett this cycle then we only have to worry about 1 nk. otherwise no matter what if we don't get the last Cett we lose because there are two NKs imo.

Edited March 28, 2021 by Illwei

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

9 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

... I'm voting for TUO because I think he's Cett, Illwei...

Unless there's somehow only one Straff left, this is exe-lo. 4 Villagers, 3 Elims, 3 deaths today unless Gears gets lucky with iron or there's another Thug out here somewhere... killing off Cett would make it a standard game near the end but killing off one of the Straffs prevents a potential 2v2. 

Seeker and Terris are both Cett roles, so that would be doubling up either way.

Your steel could also help if you hit the killer, but that's also highly contingent on luck.

11 minutes ago, The Unknown Order said:

Those are good points against me although I'm not lying. The chances aren't that unlikely considering there's a Seeker scan, a tineye scan, and... what else? We actually do know they only knew their Mistborn because TJ clarified that.

It's not that there's three types of scans, it's that there's a lot of people and it would be weird to hit the same player twice. Even if players that died that cycle are removed from the list, that's a minimum 1/10*1/7 =1/70 if you hit Ash C4 and C5, with the odds getting higher the more cycles you submitted actions. Inverse target scan would see anyone who targeted your target, so for instance if you inverse target scanned Illwei C5 you would have seen me target them.

I see TJ did clarify that the elims only know their Mistborn. I could see that being the case for either three of four member elim teams but better to plan for the worse option.

[Illwei]

hm

Devotary

I seriously doubt right now that Order is Cett. I just. That doesn't make any sense for a team to have so many...knowledge roles? the teams being ([Tineye, Seeker], Vote Manip, Terris) still makes sense for me. I'm sticking to it. Devo makes sense for that. Sure I could ask people to mass roleclaim but I'm not going to do that. Idk where everyone else went...

If we're at 4/1/2 then no matter what, there will be two kills tonight. if we get a Cett today then we either go down to 3/0/1 or 2/0/2 which I think are both...potentially winnable? much more 3/0/1...yeah. If we get anything but a Cett then we either go from 4/1/2 to... 2/1/1 (what I think will happen if we hit TUO, which then is a loss IMO. two kills and a vote means it goes down to 1 and with two kills and voting out an Elim I don't see it favoring the village there) which I think at that point isn't winnable at all. or 3/1 either team but that's either two winnable scenarios or potentially a completely unwinnable scenario.

I'm really not factoring in a lot here in regards to roles so someone let me know if my math doesn't work

--VC???--

TUO (3): Ashbringer, Books, Devotary
Devotary (1): Illwei

EDIT:

1 hour ago, Ashbringer said:

... I'm voting for TUO because I think he's Cett, Illwei...

Yeah so I was voting on him because I thought he had a high chance of being an Elim period, and then I followed you with Cett, but him Claiming Terris makes me take a hard right turn onto Straff.

1 hour ago, Ashbringer said:

Unless there's somehow only one Straff left, this is exe-lo. 4 Villagers, 3 Elims, 3 deaths today unless Gears gets lucky with iron or there's another Thug out here somewhere... killing off Cett would make it a standard game near the end but killing off one of the Straffs prevents a potential 2v2. 

Also while killing off a straff prevents it from going 2v2 it also leaves three Kills per cycle in the game, both of which are under complete control basically because there's no one to rng the kill between.

Edited March 28, 2021 by Illwei

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

3 minutes ago, Illwei said:

if we get the last cett this cycle then we only have to worry about 1 nk. otherwise no matter what if we don't get the last Cett we lose because there are two NKs imo.

So assuming two Straff and one Cett, and that there are three deaths this cycle:

We exe a Straff, and Cett and Straff kill each other. Game over, village win.

We exe a Straff, either Cett or Straff kill one of the other while the second kill goes on a villager. 3-1 tomorrow, one chance of winning outright and then either a 50-50 or another chance with a 2-1.

We exe a Straff, both Cett and Straff kill villagers. 2(village)-1-1. This could go a lot of ways, the three most likely are 1. one elim teams up with the two villagers to exe the other elim, who gets to choose which of the two other teams wins, 2. the elims team up to get a tie between a villager and an elim, the elims put in kills on the two people not up for the exe, and the outcome is decided randomly,  3. Nobody knows anything and the outcome could be anything.

We exe a Cett, Cett kills a Straff, Straff kills a villager. This is the same as the second possibility.

We exe a Cett, both elim teams kill a villager. It's 2-2, and Straff wins unless they lose both coinflips.

We exe a villager, elim teams both hit each other. 3-1 village-Straff again.

We exe a villager, Straff kills Cett kills villager. 2-2, Straff wins 75%

We exe a villager, Cett kills Straff kills villager. Same as option 3.

We exe a villager, two kills on villagers. 2(Straff)-1-1, in which case Cett and the last villager have to team up and hope to get lucky with the coinflip. Anyone can win this if the Straff gets exed, otherwise Straff victory.

Overall, a Straff needs to die today, and if that requirement is met it's also helpful to kill a Cett, though all sorts of roles could mess this up. Gears, Ash, and I all have roles that could influence how things go or even whether we have three deaths this cycle, which might also not happen if the elim teams target the same villager.

 

 

 

[Gears]

A quick advocation for my continued survival because I don't want to die: I am quite useless without atium. I can't use the same metal two cycles in a row, so anything I do is not repeatable until a sustained duration occurs. We are [probably] at XLo. I don't think I'll have time to wait for 2 cycles to do the same effective actions. Things I can plausibly do: Iron, steel, tin. I trust no one, so iron is out. Tin will only help if I happen to see the correct person for the kill. Steel throws the kill about, which is plausibly worse than just letting people kill each other. I am not an effective threat. But there is a worse threat than a declawed Mistborn: The enemy. You are as lone serial killers in the night, with a lone objective: Survive. You can argue against the X. You cannot argue against knives in the night.

Cett, lone Cett, last member of your once-four-person team: You can only win if you survive. You can stop the X. You can do glorious battle with witty words and silver tongues. You can flyte until your lungs fail you. But a knife to the ribs cannot be stopped. The Straff can kill the Mistborn. Besides, if you both tap the Mistborn, you just wasted your kill, a chance to slaughter elsewhere, a chance to perhaps drain the Straff, the team that is at a distinct advantage over you with their lifeblood significantly more intact. You should target someone you believe to be Straff to 1. not waste your kill double-tapping the Mistborn when there is no more extra life or Lurcher to be had and 2. overcome the deficit of your loss of members. If you kill me, you risk yourself. Better to slaughter the Straff. Better to take them down. Better to kill them, not me.

Straff, final Straff, two unknown figures in the darkness: You can only win when the Cett are dead. They are already at a deficit, and they probably only have the one member remaining. If you kill them, you eliminate the final threat to your reign. At least one of you is likely a trusted individual because I don't have strong suspicions, so once you slaughter the Cett, you can burn through mix after mix while whittling away at the village [because you can't kill each other], leading to your certain victory. You can defend yourself. You can bring down the village from the inside. But that one Cett... So long as that Cett exists, you are fallible. So long as that Cett exists, your victory is uncertain. So long as that Cett exists, you are at risk. If the Cett does take my advice and kills one of you, then you lose your advantage. Kill them, not me.

---

In a small closet in the corner of a darkened corridor, a child huddles in the corner and rocks back and forth. She is scared. She is alone. Her courage abandoned her, left her, was taken from her. Her powers are returning slowly, but her old instincts are harder to shake. She's getting better, getting back to what she was, but still, she's scared. She thinks about standing up, about leaving the room, about facing the actions of her otherself, but she can't. She wants to leave, wants to return to the stronger self that she's supposed to be, but she can't. She just stays in the closet, listening to the celebration and paranoia and screaming of the masses she was supposed to protect. She just lingers. They will accept her, she knows, but she can't leave. But she's getting there. Eventually. Possibly. After a long while, she reaches out and sets her hand on the doorknob. 

[Illwei]

@Gears

Idk if you're saying that because you just don't wanna die or you actually believe it but we still have a chance at winning if we get the cett this cycle. If there are two kills next cycle then we lose no matter what.