Mid-Range Game 49: Lode of Luthadel

[Illwei]

As I said, I'm fine with killing pretty much anyone that's not Gears, Ash, Pizza, and there was a fourth idk. TUO and Randby are more likely Elims, probably Straff, than not with Pizza, Ash, and Gears and the fourth person that I swear exists being more village. then Books/Devo/Reading and out of those I'd rather hit Books/Devo as the more likely Cetts, because the closer we can get to only one kill a cycle the better imo.

I'd be fine with switching to Devo if someone would accompany me. it seems like I'm the only one trying to solve this rn but /shrug

[Biplet she/her]

1 minute ago, Illwei said:

I'd be fine with switching to Devo if someone would accompany me. it seems like I'm the only one trying to solve this rn but /shrug

What's your reasoning? Like I really am lost this cycle. I have no suspicions.

[Illwei]

Just now, Biplet said:

What's your reasoning? Like I really am lost this cycle. I have no suspicions.

Devo's posts have felt pretty non-committal/wishy-washy. she expressed slight...okay?ness? willingness? to the "leave mat alive" plan, and she was on Gears last cycle, after saying that Tani was making little sense in her "i have info" bit.

[Biplet she/her]

1 minute ago, Illwei said:

Devo's posts have felt pretty non-committal/wishy-washy. she expressed slight...okay?ness? willingness? to the "leave mat alive" plan, and she was on Gears last cycle, after saying that Tani was making little sense in her "i have info" bit.

Honestly? That's the best I've got right now.

Devo. Subject to change

[Flyingbooks]

I'm willing to switch from Illwei to Devo. I'm still a bit suspicious of Illwei, but the evidence against Devo makes sense. The hesitancy around Tani and then voting on Gears due to Tani's reasoning would make sense for an elim who had just figured out that Tani was their teammate.

[Illwei]

Devo Posts, No commentary, just a collection.

Spoiler

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Assuming Striker did burn atium, he might have been able to tell that someone wasn't on his team. Atium reveals all actions and the players who submitted those actions, and since Straff players know who their Mistborn is, there's no reason for them to target Zane with any metal other than iron or copper. I don't think that matters in this case though, since if Matrim isn't the Cett Mistborn, he's a Thug who wouldn't have been able to target Zane with anything. That or Matrim is Vin/was Lurched, but I assume he would have claimed that if it was true. I also would have assumed Striker would prefer the village to waste an exe or two killing Matrim instead of killing him personally as Illwei says, but I guess that's not the case. If Striker didn't burn atium and just named Mat randomly it especially makes no sense to kill him, unless some other Straff member put in the kill and didn't pay attention to remove it.

Overall, Striker was more likely to have attacked Matrim if he was telling the truth about using atium, than if he's just throwing out a random name. If Striker had scanned Matrim doing some other metal action it especially makes sense to kill him, but then Matrim wouldn't have survived unless he's Vin or was Lurched, and he's claiming just Thug. The scenario where Matrim is a village Thug is one where Striker was just fully lying, assumed Mat was too hostile towards him to be a Straff, and got unlucky that a Straff teammate picked Matrim as a kill. That gives enough reason to believe Matrim is a Cett, and likely the Mistborn since having elim Thugs is a lot of lives to chew through.

Straff would have to kill Cett Mistborn!Mat at some point, and Mat shouldn't be able to survive unless he picked the right player to burn steel at. I don't think the elim teams have to be so symmetrical that Straff's apparent lack of a Lurcher means Cett doesn't have a Lurcher, but also Lurcher's can't save people twice in a row. I do however think that should be trying to get the elims to fight each other, and I don't know if trying to kill two members of the same team does that better than keeping things even. If Illwei dies and is Straff, then Cett won't be hunting for any remaining Straff, though maybe since there's not really a good way for the elim teams to work together, remaining Straff members would want to go after Cett by killing any they find for a while. So killing Straff!Illwei makes sure Matrim gets attacked tonight, killing Illwei is objectively worse if they're a villager, unclear if Cett would attack Illwei today as a Straff suspicion if Matrim dies as their Mistborn. The optimal scenario is exe Matrim, have Cett kill Illwei, but it's hard to gain cooperation by actively going against their interests.

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It's mostly just a game of chicken at this point. It's not worthwhile to exe Matrim if Straff is going to kill him, and Straff won't kill him so long as they expect Matrim to get exed. Matrim needs to die at some point but nobody especially wants to kill him. If we leave Cett!Matrim alive for too long, he might be able to muster up the votes to save himself. There's not really a good solution here except hoping somebody folds before we get to that point. It's not bad to vote Matrim though, since that should still help.

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Smoking doesn't block a tin scan, so if Matrim did use tin against Striker he should have seen who Striker targeted. Not entirely sure why Striker would have decided to Smoke Illwei in this scenario. I don't think Matrim could have known that Striker was using copper on Illwei though. Seeing him target somebody without an accompanying metal being burned could have also meant an attack or even a second Terris.

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On 3/21/2021 at 1:28 PM, Matrim's Dice said:

Well yeah, I don't know for sure if it was Copper he used on Illwei, though I assume so because my Seeker scan failed. I guess he could have targeted Illwei with whatever other metal he burned, but I don't know what that was.

What do you mean your Seeker scan failed? Do you learn the difference between your target being Smoked and your target not submitting any allomantic actions?

On 3/21/2021 at 1:32 PM, Ashbringer said:

Tineyes can only see one target at a time, so seeing an Illwei target means Striker either targeted Illwei with Copper or his atium-metal. Which depending if he used his Duralumin up or not could mean there's another missing Striker action out there.

I don't think Terris visit, they just learn things. But I highly doubt Mat's both Vin and a Terris

I'm assuming that Striker burning atium and seeing someone target him for a kill would use steel on that person to redirect it, and I highly doubt Illwei put a kill on Striker. Matrim lying means Illwei is not a Cett and Matrim telling the truth means Illwei targeted Matrim.

More that Striker could have been a Terris, but you're right that it doesn't look like a Terris would show up as targeting someone.

On 3/21/2021 at 1:43 PM, Biplet said:

Okay, new question, don't actions fail if the person you're targeting dies when you use the action??

Non-scanning actions still go through even if you die, so Striker using copper should still have been visible to a tin scan.

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Right, okay, I'm confusing atium and tin because atium sees everyone who targeted you with an action so far that cycle but tin would only see permanent actions, so you couldn't have seen Striker attack Illwei unless he was selected as the killer and that isn't the case because Illwei wasn't attacked.

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Liranil may or may not have been a unanimous vote, but I don't see a reason to assume that she was a redirect or killed for her role. Just from last cycle there was her saying it wasn't necessarily ideal to kill Matrim, immediately jumping on the idea of Mat being Vin saying there's no reason for him to fake-claim, and saying that the elim teams had four players with no indication of doubt. I can see that being enough for someone to take a shot.

On 3/23/2021 at 11:07 AM, Illwei said:

Honestly no clue what Devotary said

Somewhere in there, I said that the elims (Straff) would prefer not to kill anyone they thought could be exed (Matrim), but might do so eventually if he somehow survived long enough.

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Cett members, knowing that Matrim was indeed their Mistborn, easily could have assumed he was doomed, dropped a vote ahead of the inevitable rush to exe him, and then dipped for the rest of the cycle having fulfilled their obligations. I think there would have been some trying to defend Matrim when it looked like he might live, but having two people who were on the defend Mat/attack Illwei side of things flip village does increase the odds that there are Cett(s) in the early votes before serious discussion.

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@Tani, I can't think of any role that could guarantee learning something useful. Also, almost by definition information that doesn't hurt anyone can't be useful. The standard way to deal with IKYKs is to trust them at first and then exe the person who brought it up if they're lying, but if your information won't lead to anyone's exe, won't lead to someone being cleared as a villager, and won't cause someone's role info to spill out into public knowledge, all of which would hurt someone, I can't think of what you could be trying to learn.

Coinshot doesn't really help you learn anything. Lurcher goes off even if you die and also doesn't provide any information unless your target gets attacked, in which case we could figure that out ourselves. Tineye could learn something maybe, but the primary use is seeing if someone targeted the person who ended up dead, especially if that was the case the last time you scanned them. Kills are largely randomised and that would also for sure harm someone if you saw them target a kill target twice in a row. Thug gives no information. Rioter and Soother tell nothing since everyone who voted last cycle voted on Matrim. Smoker doesn't provide information to you. Seeker could help you find Vin, or check someone who didn't burn a metal last cycle to see if they do so this cycle, which could indicate they killed someone last cycle. Terris is too random to assume you'll accomplish something this cycle. Vin is the same as all the other metal roles, except you would be able to use atium/duralumin to amplify your results.

Overall, I'm going to assume you're claiming Tineye who saw someone target Quinn or Liranil last cycle and wants to see if they target someone who ends up dying this cycle in case they had done something innocuous like another Tineye scan. If they do target kill victims twice in a row that would be worthy of an exe, if they don't, you don't really get any new information. While there's obviously no reason to assume a tineye or whatever you are is village regardless of whether you catch an elim, it also does seem like you think you'll learn something else. I'd be willing to vote Gears if you have reason to believe he could be evil other than giving advice to elim teams.

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All information that's helpful is either evidence that someone is village or that they're elim, which inevitably hurts someone. Getting someone cleared as village makes them a kill target and gives the actual elim fewer places to hide, while someone being revealed as an elim gets them killed.

Telling elims what to do mechanically and claiming elim in RP is just something Gears does regardless of alignment.

It still looks like you're going to die so you should reveal what information you have before rollover.

 

Now with three people on Devo the Inactive ParanioaTM comes in with stuff.

Okay okay okay theoretically theoretically if I have identified all the other villagers, then I've found all the elims. Of course. that. that relies on the fact that I've found all the villagers. there are most likely only 5, otherwise I think it's too village-sided?  Okay I just realized I only have three village reads. oh well.

Okay I just went through my reads and it was Ash, Gears, Pizza.  Ash and Pizza aren't strong reads and I haven't seen anything at all from Pizza, and barely anything from Ash. Ash's EoD4 actions were kinda eeeeee imo so that might be worth looking into. He also tried to stay away from Tani that cycle, and ended up on Gears, but there were more words from him there that didn't make sense. Half of me not feeling good about him is seeing people say the words "we have no info" and not voting at all because that feels like an easy excuse to not do anything. because then those people don't go try and figure anything out, they just say it and then continue on with not having any info. Ash also completely dropped his Straff read of me and idk where that went.

Okay no, Ash is village. I'm sticking with that. He attacked Mat. though that could have been strategic because there was no way Mat was going to survive that? aaaaaaaaaaa

no

not giving in. Ash, Gears, Pizza. Less so Pizza. Just Ash and Gears. these are terrible reads. this is going nowhere.

anyone else been doing research? I need someone to talk to help

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

1 hour ago, Illwei said:

Devo's posts have felt pretty non-committal/wishy-washy. she expressed slight...okay?ness? willingness? to the "leave mat alive" plan, and she was on Gears last cycle, after saying that Tani was making little sense in her "i have info" bit.

It would have been nice if Straff had killed Matrim and let us exe someone else, but I did indicate that the odds of that were poor enough that it would be better to exe Matrim. I voted for Gears in case Tani had actual suspicion that he was evil, tineye scan of him targeting Quinn/Liranil. Ash's Seeker idea where she scanned Gears and didn't see him burn a metal would have also been plausible. I assumed an elim Tani would have lied and blamed someone to stay alive, which she didn't do. If she had said 'Gears targeted Liranil C3' she probably would have lived and maybe not died this cycle even assuming Gears died and flipped Vin. The refusal to give information and the indignation when people didn't trust her made it seem like she actually had knowledge but that it wasn't enough to be sure that someone was an elim.

[|TJ| he/him]

Vote Count:

Devotary of Spontaneity (2): Flyingbooks, Biplet
Flyingbooks (1): Illwei
Illwei (1): Gears

[Biplet she/her]

Just now, TJ Shade said:

Vote Count:

Devotary of Spontaneity (2): Flyingbooks, Biplet
Flyingbooks (1): Illwei
Illwei (1): Gears

Y'all there's definitely more of us still playing. Where is everyone lol

[Illwei]

welp. um. Devotary

@PizzaPower55 @The Unknown Order @Shard of Reading @Random Bystander

I'm...there's two people I'm missing... @Devotary of Spontaneity .... uhm....one....more... ... ...

[Random Bystander she/her]

Just now, Illwei said:

welp. um. Devotary

@PizzaPower55 @The Unknown Order @Shard of Reading @Random Bystander

I'm...there's two people I'm missing... @Devotary of Spontaneity .... uhm....one....more... ... ...

Hm? *quickly reads through a few things* Oh. Uh... Devotary of Spontaneity? I don't know. 

[Illwei]

Just now, Random Bystander said:

Hm? *quickly reads through a few things* Oh. Uh... Devotary of Spontaneity? I don't know. 

What do you think of Books? :P.

[Random Bystander she/her]

Just now, Illwei said:

What do you think of Books? :P.

I don't know. At this point, the Elims could be anyone. I mean, no one knows wo any of their teammates are! I'm a bit lost. I'm pretty sure most of us are lost, but still.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

@Ashbringer is the other person who hasn't voted. Four votes on me all of a sudden. We have Books as a possible Cett, Illwei definitely not a Cett but could still be a Straff. Killing one doesn't really say anything about the other. Going after the Cetts first gets the kill down to one, but supposedly the point of having two elim teams is that they'd kill each other at some point. I don't actually remember why Illwei would be Straff though and I do remember why Cett!Books is a thing, even though that could be caused by simply lack of time. I think I'll vote for Books this time.

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

I still have no idea, but I said I'd vote this game, so tentative Devotary. The reasoning for their exe is sound although I don't have a gut on them, but I also don't have a gut in anyone.

[Illwei]

Aaaaaa so my Devotary reasoning is good but my Books reasoning isn't???

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

1 minute ago, Illwei said:

Aaaaaa so my Devotary reasoning is good but my Books reasoning isn't???

I think your Books reasoning is better than your reasoning for me, or at least more likely to be accurate. I don't think I've ever had a game where I was sure of things and had strong opinions.

[Gears]

Roko the Basilisk in the aspect of Vin, Heir to the Survivor, Lady Mistborn, Ascendant Warrior ducked into a shadowed corridor and cursed its/her folly. The donor was a high-profile target, and it couldn't shed the skin without drawing even more attention. It wasn't supposed to be here, after all. Vin was a denizen, but Roko wasn't supposed to be here. It had to be Vin for this. It had to be her, or they would discover the deception, a fate worse than the loss of this flesh. The footsteps grew louder, and Roko/Vin knew that this was the end. Roko closed its eyes, and Vin opened hers. In a single fluid motion, she took a bead from her pocket, swallowed it, and burned atium. The shadow split from its originator, and Vin knew that she would not survive.

---

I am burning atium. Only one individual is trying to kill me at this time, so the lone Cett decided otherwise or they're waiting for the last moment. Biplet, you did well. Illwei. If you would rather kill Devotary and kill Biplet next time, that's fine. Just kill the confirmed elim soon. Farewell, my friends and enemies. I wish you well as I pass into the long night.

@Flyingbooks @Illwei @Random Bystander @Ashbringer @Biplet @The Unknown Order @PizzaPower55 @Shard of Reading @Devotary of Spontaneity

Edited March 26, 2021 by Gears

[Ashbringer he/him]

... well then. I woke up much later than I wanted to, but I guess that works.

Biplet

In case I die (somehow) I'm a bit suspicious of Shard of Reading.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

Books, Biplet

Edit: Gears, don't you have steel to redirect?

Edited March 26, 2021 by Devotary of Spontaneity

[Random Bystander she/her]

Yeah... Devotary Biplet

[|TJ| he/him]

VC:

Biplet (4): Random Bystander, Ashbringer, Gears, Devotary of Spontaneity
Devotary of Spontaneity (4): Flyingbooks, Illwei, Biplet, The Unknown Order

[Ashbringer he/him]

Illwei is viewing the thread

 

[|TJ| he/him]

Cycle's done.

[Biplet she/her]

O7 lmao