Mid-Range Game 49: Lode of Luthadel

[Biplet she/her]

5 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

you and TUO for sheeping Mat on a couple of early votes,

Girl you adamantly defended Mat outright lmao and continued to do it even after he claimed

[Mat he/him]

1 minute ago, Shard of Reading said:

You've literally claimed elim, and the village wins by killing all elims, so we need to move towards the wincon. Plus, having an acknowledged elim in thread makes it a buttload more confusing, and you're just going to draw discussion until you're dead.

*counts on fingers* True, true, true. True, true! All true.

But think of how fun it would be if I lived!

[Biplet she/her]

3 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

But think of how fun it would be if I lived

New petition forget everything and let mat live. Party in the thread 

[Shard of Reading he/him]

6 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

But think of how fun it would be if I lived!

That is a good point.

[Quintessential she/her]

11 minutes ago, Biplet said:

Girl you adamantly defended Mat outright lmao and continued to do it even after he claimed

Why do people keep saying I defended Mat??? he's a confirmed elim, and I want him dead. I have wanted him dead since last cycle, before Striker announced his atium thing, which is more than anyone else here can say. I've had a different opinion about how we should kill him, but that is a very very different thing than defending him.

Stop misstating my intentions please.

Also what does that have to do with you, TUO, and Tani sheeping or not sheeping elim Mistborn?

Also here's a VC for anyone who was curious:

Matrim (12): Illwei, Books, Devo, Whysper, Ash, Biplet, Liranil, TUO, Gears, Matrim, Pizza, Reading
Illwei (1): Tani

Randby's not voting. I'm not voting either, because there's no point in voting Illwei and if I vote Mat he'll Soothe me off of him anyway, so it'd be a waste of red text : P

[Biplet she/her]

8 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

Also what does that have to do with you, TUO, and Tani sheeping or not sheeping elim Mistborn?

Because you were calling them out for sheeping someone you'd defended a lot lol

And whether or not your intention was to defend, it was pretty obvious that you were defending him. I mean, that's what the entire thunderdome was about. But I'm not gonna bring this back up lol

Edited March 22, 2021 by Biplet

[Quintessential she/her]

5 minutes ago, Biplet said:

Because you were calling them out for sheeping someone you'd defended a lot lol

And whether or not your intention was to defend, it was pretty obvious that you were defending him. I mean, that's what the entire thunderdome was about. But I'm not gonna bring this back up lol

Okay no y'know what I'm sick of this. What follows are every post I made in the first three pages, plus every post mentioning Mat within the first six pages. I stopped quoting after page 6 or so because at that point every post I made assumed that Mat was elim so I figured it wasn't worth it.

On 3/20/2021 at 3:27 PM, Quintessential said:

Okay, will have more later but first of all: Striker may have been lying about his identity but he likely was telling the truth about using atium and seeing Mat (this way, his team knows a member of the other team to try to take out--why would he lie about who was attacking him?). AKA, Mat is Cett, and was the one RNGd with the attack on Striker. Striker, meanwhile, was Straff (obviously) and Straff was the team that attacked Archer last cycle.

On 3/20/2021 at 3:28 PM, Quintessential said:

Ah! Right. Matrim thank you for reminding me to do that Illwei  and now, to update my notes!

On 3/20/2021 at 3:32 PM, Quintessential said:

: P Mat's essentially mechanically confirmed Cett. All votes on him are NAI at this point. 

On 3/20/2021 at 3:45 PM, Quintessential said:

I actually have Bip down as potentially being on the same elim team with e-Mistborn Striker because she kinda sheeped him on STINK  (actually, originally I'd said it would be one of the two of them on an elim team with e-Mistborn Liranil but unless Mat's a Thug, I'm.. pretty sure we've already found both the elim Mistborns : P)

On 3/20/2021 at 3:55 PM, Quintessential said:

Well of course you don't, you're the accused  

For those of you who are wondering why we're voting the person the confirmed elim Mistborn accused, here it is:

 There are two elim teams. Each team has a vested interest in killing off not only villagers, but the other elim team. Striker had a way of mechanically confirming a member of that other team, so he used it and announced it to the thread so that something would be done about it the next cycle.

On the other hand, he would have had no way of mechanically confirming someone as village. If he announced the identity of someone he didn't know was Cett, he'd risk accidentally choosing one of his own teammates--and his team isn't exactly doing great either.

Anyway, point is that Striker was almost certainly telling the truth about Mat.

On 3/20/2021 at 4:01 PM, Quintessential said:

Striker didn't post about Mat until last-minute, remember? None of his teammates would have known for sure about Mat either. Idk why they chose Mat specifically, but I'd guess it wasn't Striker secretly leaving clues in his posts or anything--more like one or more of his teammates thought Mat was a good kill for tone.

On 3/20/2021 at 4:25 PM, Quintessential said:

To be honest, this is actually fair. For the same reason that I can believe a confirmed Straff's claim of a Cett identity, I can just as easily listen to that Cett's claim of Straff connections. The only downside is that it opens up the possibility of Mat being Lurched.

Okay, so what I'm discovering right now is that multiball is weird XD I'm simultaneously so convinced that Mat is elim that I've marked all 49 mentions of him in my notes doc with the Cett color, and I'm genuinely listening to his arguments for why Illwei is Straff. Which are actually... pretty good. I'm... not... sure what to do here. Because Mat's pointing out a bunch of things that I think pinged me at the time, or later (in going through my notes just now I was like "why was Illwei voting for Striker for so long anyway?"), but I never... I don't trust my gut on Illwei, mostly because of QF51 tbh. 

The thing that pings me the most, though, is Illwei continuously referencing "the Elim team," as though she's not thinking so much about the fact that there are two. For the elims, there is only one elim team that they have to worry about, so that seemed kind of slip-ish to me. 

Anyway I... okay y'know what let's do this. Matrim Illwei

To be incredibly crystal clear, this does not mean I don't think Mat's elim. If Straff doesn't attack him this cycle, or if they do attack him but he survives, I will be pushing for his exe next cycle. But he makes a good point, and I can't see why they wouldn't attack him, since their own Mistborn said he was an enemy. 

On 3/20/2021 at 4:52 PM, Quintessential said:

I'm kind of confused what TMI has to do with this? The only people who have TMI on Mat are (potentially) his own team. And that's only if he's Mistborn. Also, yeah, I was voting for Mat last cycle to make it clear that the vote I intended to place on him this cycle wasn't just coming out of nowhere. Of course, turns out that wouldn't have been an issue but I didn't know that : P

Right, he's basically confirmed elim. Specifically, he's basically confirmed Cett. If he's not a top exe candidate, Straff will almost certainly attack him. Because their literal Mistborn told them to. They might not attack him if, for example, he's only a vote or two behind any other exe targets. But at this point, exeing him would be a waste because he's gonna die anyway. This way, we know exactly who one of the two teams is going to attack, and we are free to discuss other people.

*blink* what???? I did vote you! Last cycle! And this cycle! And I only removed my vote from you after you asked us all to not vote you and let you get NKd instead. Uh-uh, I can believe your arguments on Illwei but saying I'm trying to avoid voting you is grasping at straws.

On 3/20/2021 at 5:19 PM, Quintessential said:

BECAUSE HE"S (practically) CONFIRMED CETT. If Matrim isn't a top exe candidate, then Straff has every reason to NK him because they know he's Cett (or at least they know he's not Straff, since their kill on him went through last cycle) and given that he survived their kill from last cycle, he could very well be Cett Mistborn.

Look, here's the deal: speaking generally, the best thing for Straff to do right now is get Mat exed. They probably want him dead, and if they can get the village to kill him for them, that's a win for them. They can focus their kills on whomever else they want--including villagers, something which Mat almost certainly isn't. By exeing someone else instead of Mat, we will force Straff to eventually try to kill him--since one way or another, they know he's not one of them and if we're not gonna kill him, they have to do it to win. So by not exeing him, we're using up one of their elim kills. Whereas if we exe him, we're using up one of our exes that could be spent elsewhere.

(so basically, Illwei is currently saying exactly what I'd expect members of Straff to say in this situation)

All we have to do is all agree (or at least most of us agree) that since everyone knows Mat is Cett, Straff is going to have to kill him eventually. If we all publicly say that we're not gonna exe him, they have to kill him. It's literally in their win-con. yes, it's in the village win-con too, but we may as well let the enemies do the work for us. That way, we will never waste a cycle exeing him, and he'll die (eventually), and it'll be one less villager that Straff have the opportunity to NK.

.... er. Yeah. That's... like exactly opposite standard terminology XD 

Also I see your point--I just realized that's exactly the argument I have against Illwei above : P but yeah anyway it didn't... the tempting thing at the beginning of the cycle was to vote the (mostly) confirmed elim, without stopping to think about it. After which you convinced me otherwise, evidently : P

I've said this like five times already this game and I'll say it again:

There are two elim teams.

If Straff doesn't attack Mat this cycle, then yes, they will (as always) be guaranteed to attack someone not of their own alignment--but that's also true of Mat because their attack on him worked last cycle, ergo he's not of their alignment.

And yes, if Straff attacks someone other than Mat this cycle, they could potentially hit someone on the other elim team--but if they attack Mat this cycle, they will definitely hit someone from the other elim team. So I don't see what your point is here? In both of these cases, the thing they would gain from not attacking Mat is also a thing they would gain from attacking Mat?

***Not attacking Mat does not guarantee that Straff will not lose one of their own to the exe! I have literally no idea what you're thinking here! The elims who would attack Mat would be Straff, as Mat is already proven not Straff. If we exe Mat, then yeah Straff won't lose anyone from their team. But that's bad for us, not good, so I don't see what your point is. If Straff doesn't kill Mat, but we sane people successfully convince everyone else not to vote Mat either, then we're just as likely to exe someone from Straff as we would be if Mat was actually attacked.

Basically, to this third point, Straff not attacking Mat does not help them avoid the exe in and of itself.

So, that's... all of your points against exeing Mat debunked? yeah, that's all of 'em.  

On 3/20/2021 at 5:31 PM, Quintessential said:

Again: not defending you--I just don't think it's worth our time to attack you either. Straff should take care of that for us eventually, whether you're actually Cett or not  

On 3/20/2021 at 7:13 PM, Quintessential said:

@Illwei I'm realizing I didn't make it super clear why I think Straff will attack Mat:

Straff is not in a good position right now. It's C3 and their Mistborn is already dead. They have no idea who each other are, and if they're not careful they might turn on each other in the thread by accident. They're at a distinct disadvantage compared to both other teams.

And Mat appears to be the Cett Mistborn. I don't have any particular interest in keeping Cett and Straff even--I mean, I want them both equally dead in the end but I don't care how lopsided it gets along the way there--but Straff probably wants to even things up between the two, or risk falling more easily. The easy way to do that in this case is to kill the person who appears to be the Cett Mistborn. And if Mat is Cett Thug instead, oh well, at least Straff isn't the only elim team to have lost a player. Basically, they have potentially more to gain from killing Mat or getting him killed than from ignoring him. I am arguing that we should force them to kill him themselves, instead of doing it for them and letting them target someone else who might end up being a villager. 

Two of the three deaths this cycle (at least) could involve the death of a villager. The Cett one almost certainly will, unless by some miracle they hit one of the two or three remaining Straff. If we decide to exe Mat, we can guarantee that the exe won't kill a villager, but that also means that Straff will target someone else--and they're no more likely to hit another elim than Cett is (since they won't target Mat in this scenario). So in that case, we have one non-villager death and two probable-villager deaths. Of course, if we choose not to exe Mat, I'm guessing Straff will target Mat to even things up between them and Cett (in addition to whatever reason they had for killing him last cycle). In that case, the Straff kill won't target a villager, and the exe might. Which sounds bad, until you realize that in the former case, the villagers have no control over either probable-villager death, and in the latter case, we do have control. We can make sure that if a villager dies, at least it either gives us information or resolves a major dispute that would otherwise suck up discussion time, and we have a higher chance of exeing an elim than Straff has of killing one, because we don't care which team that elim comes from.

Obviously it's also possible that Straff won't target Mat--to cause confusion, to try to eat up the next cycle's exe, or what have you. But keep in mind, at least one of them wanted to kill him already, and now that he's survived an attack and been proven Cett, it's not unlikely that he's the Cett Mistborn, which only gives them more of an incentive to attack him. So it's a gamble, but I don't think it's all that risky of one. Besides, I suppose if he survives this cycle you can always override me, and next cycle's exe will be guaranteed to hit an elim. 

So, that's my general thought process. Having stepped away for a bit and looked back I can see where you're coming from--but I still think we should exe someone else this cycle. 

*cough* also remember in QF51 how I argued that we should play the higher-risk strategy by not exeing Reading and asking him not to shoot anyone, but nobody listened to me, and if you had we might not have lost? : P I'm not saying this is necessarily like that... but it kind of is though

 

 

On 3/20/2021 at 7:20 PM, Quintessential said:

...the thread seemed perfectly fine with him killing me, iirc. I think you were like... the only person telling him to kill TJ. I don't remember very well though  

Eh, y'know what, Illwei Matrim. After responding to Illwei I looked through the other posts and noticed a couple more people are voting Mat--which means my plan is probably not catching on :P. There really isn't much point in voting Illwei rather than Mat though I mean at this point my vote is redundant no matter what I do so I'll just save it for next cycle.

 

On 3/20/2021 at 7:28 PM, Quintessential said:

Be completely unsurprised and not change what we're doing at all, considering that we're already assuming you're Cett Mistborn 

20 hours ago, Quintessential said:

@Matrim's Dice if what you're saying is true, then how did Striker know that he was going to be attacked?

19 hours ago, Quintessential said:

Ah, okay so I've gone back and reread what I skimmed. Personally, I'm with Ash here: at this point I think both of them are elim (well, that's where I was before actually, except for a brief moment after I read Mat's claim XD). However, tbh I'd actually rather vote Illwei than Matrim. I don't trust either of them, and I think Mat is at this point far more likely to be NKd. So imo the best way to get results on them is to exe Illwei. : P (also since Mat's Soothing me apparently, my vote will be canceled if I'm on him, because I had a final vote on him last cycle, but it won't be canceled if I'm on Illwei. Therefore, I am literally more effective voting her)

 

19 hours ago, Quintessential said:

I'd move my vote but if I do it'll be soothed away so....

18 hours ago, Quintessential said:

Ah, so you admit it? 

(hey would you mind requesting that your teammates murder Illwei? Since it seems you're gonna be exed this cycle...) 

18 hours ago, Quintessential said:

...why would that make it shaky? Mat doesn't have any info on anyone's identities : P

Now please explain to me where exactly I'm defending Mat in there

[Biplet she/her]

4 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

Okay no y'know what I'm sick of this. What follows are every post I made in the first three pages, plus every post mentioning Mat within the first six pages. I stopped quoting after page 6 or so because at that point every post I made assumed that Mat was elim so I figured it wasn't worth it.

I didn't mean to upset you. I will be taking a step back from the game

[Quivil]

Illwei

Imma do some votes analysis...

[Shard of Reading he/him]

2 minutes ago, Tani said:

Illwei

Imma do some votes analysis...

That's going to do a lot of good this cycle.  Villagers will vote mat because he's elim, straff will vote for mat because it's the other teams mistborn, and REVENGE! and Cett will vote Mat because they don't want to stand out.

[Quintessential she/her]

4 minutes ago, Biplet said:

I didn't mean to upset you. I will be taking a step back from the game

: P it's not really you--just that everyone keeps saying that I'm defending Mat, when I've been trying as hard as I can to convey that I'm not, that I'm just considering all of our options and trying to weigh them fairly instead of just jumping on the most obvious one. Apparently that subtlety does not carry over very well.

[Illwei]

11 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

Okay no y'know what I'm sick of this. What follows are every post I made in the first three pages, plus every post mentioning Mat within the first six pages. I stopped quoting after page 6 or so because at that point every post I made assumed that Mat was elim so I figured it wasn't worth it.

You didn't outright defend mat. What you did do is try to get people voting me instead of mat, giving Cett a one cycle advantage, and even advocating for not killing Mat at all.

11 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

All we have to do is all agree (or at least most of us agree) that since everyone knows Mat is Cett, Straff is going to have to kill him eventually. If we all publicly say that we're not gonna exe him, they have to kill him. It's literally in their win-con. yes, it's in the village win-con too, but we may as well let the enemies do the work for us. That way, we will never waste a cycle exeing him, and he'll die (eventually), and it'll be one less villager that Straff have the opportunity to NK.

This. This paragraph here. No one said that you denied him being A Mistborn, but despite that you still tried to advocate for leaving him alive while also advocating that we kill ME because I would "take up discussion".

That's not outright denying he's a mistborn, but that's still a defence.

EDIT:
Quinn, maybe you need to go take a walk (or play chess with me? :eyes:) :P.

Edited March 22, 2021 by Illwei

[Quintessential she/her]

7 minutes ago, Illwei said:

You didn't outright defend mat. What you did do is try to get people voting me instead of mat, giving Cett a one cycle advantage, and even advocating for not killing Mat at all.

Read my last post : P

I want Mat dead. I have been trying to make that obvious, and apparently it's fallen on deaf ears or people don't read carefully enough to catch that subtlety or I don't even know what. Some of the ideas/theories that I've proposed (like the one you quoted) are probably ill-advised, have flaws, or wouldn't work, but that's because that's just how I think. I write things down and post them and come back to them later and sometimes they make sense when I look at them and sometimes I wonder what I was thinking. Sometimes I come back and I think the conclusion is right but the reasoning was wrong or I needed to state what I was thinking more clearly (as with the one you quoted--I still think it would be better to let the enemy do the work for us, though that's not gonna happen at this point obviously, but making it a general dichotomy between exeing you and exeing Mat, when really that's just the personal dichotomy for me, was not the best idea).

Basically, I like to consider more possibilities than just the most obvious one, even if they seem counterintuitive. Call it an academic fascination if you want, idk. I'm... pretty tired of suspicion being cast on me for that, and I'm pretty tired of dying for it (because, let's face it, Mat is the only reason this isn't a tied exe between me and you right now--or me and someone else, ig, who knows).

Also I have a physics lab report to finish and a Spanish class in 15 minutes so I probably won't be on again until next cycle.

[Mat he/him]

19 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

: P it's not really you--just that everyone keeps saying that I'm defending Mat, when I've been trying as hard as I can to convey that I'm not, that I'm just considering all of our options and trying to weigh them fairly instead of just jumping on the most obvious one. Apparently that subtlety does not carry over very well.

For what it's worth, I didn't think you were defending me :/ Which I get that it's from... me... but I do mean that seriously

[Illwei]

5 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

(because, let's face it, Mat is the only reason this isn't a tied exe between me and you right now--or me and someone else, ig, who knows).

What? I'm not really suspecting you for it all that much right now. I just. You were defending him. Yeah, you considered the possibilities, but it would have been different if you considered them all and then decided, instead of trying to push the ones that involved me dying and leaving Mat alive.

Also should probably think about if all of those theories are worth mentioning to the thread, if you keep dying because of it :P. not saying you shouldn't think of them, but overwhelming the thread with all the different possibilities isn't always helpful for the village- at worst it causes a ton of confusion :P. You can't really blame the village for killing you when you say yourself that the theories are "counter-intuitive", especially when you phrase them like they aren't :P.

Edited March 22, 2021 by Illwei

[Liranil she/her]

As a side note, I'm still looking over the Striker mentions in previous threads, and Quinn was pushing for us to leave him and Archer to be NK'd (which did happen to Striker), so her pushing that strategy wasn't Mat-specific.

[|TJ| he/him]

I'm thinking of planning a game in which the main rule is that Illwei and Quinn are banned from quoting each other. Or referring to each other.  Hmm, perhaps make it a wincon for both of them? xD

Edited March 22, 2021 by TJ Shade

[Quivil]

ok i think im ready.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Quinn: 1 vote total. 0 this round.

Liranil: 5 votes total. 0 this round.

Mat: 15 votes total. 14 this round.

Illwei: 10 votes total. 6 this round.

Gears: 7 votes total. 0 this round.

Whysper: 1 vote total. 0 this round. Greeting vote.

Experience: 1 vote total. 0 this round. Poke vote.

Pizza: 3 votes total. 0 this round. All of these were boredom votes.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Looks like last round we were most sus of Gears>Liranil>Illwei>Mat/Quinn>everyone else.

This does not count the dead.

This round we're most sus of Mat - tho really he'll die anyhoo. I really dont want us to waste our exe...

We can always kill Mat later if the Straffs dont kill him.

[Mat he/him]

1 minute ago, Tani said:

This round we're most sus of Mat

-Only because of mechanical reasons. Don't deny that if Striker hadn't said anything I would have like no votes on me

Eh, it's not a waste for you guys. You're getting rid of the other powerful elim role.

[Quivil]

Just now, Matrim's Dice said:

-Only because of mechanical reasons. Don't deny that if Striker hadn't said anything I would have like no votes on me

Eh, it's not a waste for you guys. You're getting rid of the other powerful elim role.

Ok. Mat.

[Biplet she/her]

24 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

people don't read carefully enough to catch that subtlety

I just want to point out that subtlety can be very hard for some people to catch, especially over text. I can promise I am reading carefully, but nothing can stop me from being unable to pick up on certain tone indicators. I understand your intention was not to defend mat now, but I did not grasp that before, because from what I could tell, you wanted him alive. 

Edited March 22, 2021 by Biplet

[Mat he/him]

1 minute ago, Tani said:

Ok. Mat.

Excellent, excellent!

I'm gonna drop something right before rollover.

[Biplet she/her]

Okay now that that’s done…

6 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I'm gonna drop something right before rollover.

Fear.jpg

[Flyingbooks]

3 minutes ago, Tani said:

This round we're most sus of Mat - tho really he'll die anyhoo. I really dont want us to waste our exe...

We can always kill Mat later if the Straffs dont kill him.

If we leave every confirmed elim we find to be killed by the other team, then we'll never win. It's especially important to exe Mat of all of the elims as quickly as possible because that'd remove their most powerful role. This feels a bit like a last-ditch attempt to try to give your Mistborn a little extra time.

 

Min snuck through the corridors of Kredik Shaw, a spike throbbing in their upper arm. They had found it in the back of a room full of old inquisitor spikes that had lost all their charge long ago, and had used Forgery to restore the charge to its original potential - their Forged "lifeline" to MaiPon had certainly helped with that. They reached the room where several people had congregated and listened at the door for a moment before walking in. Apparently, a Cett Mistborn had been found: a man named something like Gnome ordering? Gone orange ring? Gardorneredin? Something like that.

[Mat he/him]

I didn't soothe Quinn  We'll see if you can tell what I did do. It should be pretty easy to tell.

This death was actually decently timed, as my game starts Wednesday (Which needs more players and I'd appreciate it if you joined if and only if you can- real life comes first, as always) but I still wish I had just read that OoA xD

Well, this did turn out to be fun. In the Aftermath (and probably the dead doc) I'll explain exactly how much of my claim was a lie and give a list of the actions and kill votes I made. I think you'll find the results surprising, though which way I won't clarify 

Remember: It's Gneorndin.

Long live Cett! O7