Long Game 72: The Secret of Shinovar

[Condensation she/her]

Okay, sure. I'm a good information lynch. But I've got information that Jester and Mat can confirm is important.

The Bearer of Chanarach's Blade claimed to me and says they did PMs D1 and N2. This means that - unless they're lying, which I sincerely doubt - one of the secret roles has a kill action.

14 hours ago, Quinn0928 said:

Okay, so first of all--we've had someone use Abrasion three times now (D1, N1, and N2), and we've presumably also had one use of Division by Chanarach's Blade, unless one of the secrets has a kill action. We also know that Ishar's Blade was in the Stone Shaman's hands for all of C2, so it's unlikely that the Bearers of Chanarach or Vedel have any Light left at this point. That means that we won't have PMs during C4. It also means that XP almost certainly was the person who saved Matrim (not that that was in much doubt before), because if Vedel had done it then they wouldn't have had enough Light to open PMs. That basically rules out the possibility of Matrim being a WGG, so Stone Shaman (and Honorblade Bearers), if you ever need to claim to someone in order to relay info, Matrim is probably the best option. Though of course you should use your own discretion on that particular point.

Because of that, I don't think we should discount the possibility that Chanarach's Blade is currently in the hands of an elim, and that that person opened PMs D1 or N1 so that the elims could try to pocket/find Honorblades. It's also a possibility that a villager or neutral with Chanarach's Blade had their own reasons for killing one of them, as others have said, but I notice that nobody else has really acknowledged that that Blade's Bearer could belong to an elim.

So you say "presumably also had one use of Division by Chanarach's Blade" and then go on to assume that that's the truth. So the secret role has a kill action and uses it, which means they're either experienced, very bold(and new), or in contact with the elims. Right? And that means that Mat could have been saved by Vedel, even if that's unlikely. I think the point about trusting Mat still stands, though.

So (I checked) unless Vedel overlapped once with Chanarach in doing PMs, then we will have PMs C4. And if we don't, I'd like to encourage the Bearer of Vedel to start doing PMs every other night and fall into a reliable pattern so that we know if the Blades change hands. So if Chanarach did D1, Vedel did N1, Chanarach did N2, then Vedel should have enough Light to do N3, unless they overlapped or saved Mat.

[Quintessential she/her]

2 hours ago, Ookla the Grammatical said:

Okay, sure. I'm a good information lynch. But I've got information that Jester and Mat can confirm is important.

The Bearer of Chanarach's Blade claimed to me and says they did PMs D1 and N2. This means that - unless they're lying, which I sincerely doubt - one of the secret roles has a kill action.

So you say "presumably also had one use of Division by Chanarach's Blade" and then go on to assume that that's the truth. So the secret role has a kill action and uses it, which means they're either experienced, very bold(and new), or in contact with the elims. Right? And that means that Mat could have been saved by Vedel, even if that's unlikely. I think the point about trusting Mat still stands, though.

So (I checked) unless Vedel overlapped once with Chanarach in doing PMs, then we will have PMs C4. And if we don't, I'd like to encourage the Bearer of Vedel to start doing PMs every other night and fall into a reliable pattern so that we know if the Blades change hands. So if Chanarach did D1, Vedel did N1, Chanarach did N2, then Vedel should have enough Light to do N3, unless they overlapped or saved Mat.

Great, I love when my well-founded theories turn out to be unfounded. I'm going to assume you're correct, since you've cited two people who can confirm the info and I'm almost certain that one of them, Mat, is village. 

If one of the secret roles has a kill action, that means... I have no idea what that means, actually. Except that if PMs do open for C4, we will have confirmation that it was XP, through Pailiah's Blade, who healed Matrim, and not whoever has Vedel (since if Vedel did it then they wouldn't have the Stormlight to open PMs again). All of this is obviously assuming that neither of the secret roles can open PMs or save people, which is the assumption I have to operate under unless someone says otherwise because if I didn't I'd go insane trying to account for all of the possibilities.

This doesn't really change any of my reasons for voting you, but Matrim has informed me that there are PM reasons not to vote you. I... don't really think I can justify removing the vote just because of that, even though I trust Matrim, but... well I'm not sure. I'll have to think about that I guess.

Edit: has it occurred to anyone that the secret roles could be the Bearers of Nale's and Jezrien's blades? They would have Gravitation+Division and Gravitation+Adhesion respectively, in that case, which would make sense given the secret roles' abilities that we've seen so far...

Edited December 11, 2020 by Quinn0928

[Ashbringer he/him]

(Because I said I'd do it after the writeup, and then didn't...)

@eltruT is currently up for the inactivity filter. Please post by the end of the cycle, or you will be replaced with a pinch hitter.

[+Lotus she/her]

I... I honestly don’t have many thoughts. Don’t trust many, don’t distrust many

[Quintessential she/her]

I have been informed of the PM reasons for not voting Connie. So... uh... yeah I'm in the same boat as Lotus here. I trust a couple of people and read everyone else as essentially null. It might help if more people were active on the thread rn, but...

[Mat he/him]

Ok. This isn't active enough for my liking, and I know we just lost Illwei but c'mon guys.

I'm now directly opposed to the Connie vote again. I was before, then I was skeptical, now I'm opposed to it again. Slightly sus of Fura for his push, but I don't know how willing elim!Fura would be to push that hard on vil!Connie. Lotus... I mean you could try to do something :P.

I had a sudden gut elim of Alvron but I dunno where that's going... 

Honestly I have enough information from... things... that I don't have that large of an elim pool to choose from :P. I'll put a vote down on Furamirionind to spark more discussion. It may or may not stay.

[Alvron]

Devotary.  There is nothing solid I can put my finger on but the way they have been posting just doesn't feel the way they normally post when village.  One thing I have noticed about Devotary is that when they are evil, they tend to be less aggressive / more passive in their posts/votes and that is what I'm seeing now.  They seem, to me, to be holding back and that's how they've acted several times when we were evil together.

[Condensation she/her]

I'm going to join Mat on Furamirionind. They won't stop saying that they think I'm an elim.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

20 hours ago, Quinn0928 said:

Because of that, I don't think we should discount the possibility that Chanarach's Blade is currently in the hands of an elim, and that that person opened PMs D1 or N1 so that the elims could try to pocket/find Honorblades. It's also a possibility that a villager or neutral with Chanarach's Blade had their own reasons for killing one of them, as others have said, but I notice that nobody else has really acknowledged that that Blade's Bearer could belong to an elim.

The possibility of Chanarach's Bearer being an elim has been considered and specifically discounted because it gives the elims too much killing power.

5 hours ago, Ookla the Grammatical said:

So (I checked) unless Vedel overlapped once with Chanarach in doing PMs, then we will have PMs C4. And if we don't, I'd like to encourage the Bearer of Vedel to start doing PMs every other night and fall into a reliable pattern so that we know if the Blades change hands. So if Chanarach did D1, Vedel did N1, Chanarach did N2, then Vedel should have enough Light to do N3, unless they overlapped or saved Mat.

If Vedel opened PMs N1 they couldn't have also saved Matrim that night, which would mean XP saved him.

It seems like nobody has counterclaimed Eternum about starting with and subsequently losing Ishar's Blade, nor has anyone reported hearing from someone who tried to prove they had Ishar's Blade. If a secret role removed a vote from Ventyl, then it seems Kaladin cancelled the vote of one of the Quinn voters without trying to prove access to Adhesion, after not influencing the results of Danex vs. Connie D1. One stormlight isn't a high cost for Kaladin, but it isn't nothing.

[Quintessential she/her]

13 minutes ago, Ookla the Hypodecadal said:

The possibility of Chanarach's Bearer being an elim has been considered and specifically discounted because it gives the elims too much killing power.

I didn't mean that Chanarach's Blade necessarily started in the hands of an elim--it could have been transferred to one. However, given what Connie has said it sounds like that's not the case, so point taken.

13 minutes ago, Ookla the Hypodecadal said:

It seems like nobody has counterclaimed Eternum about starting with and subsequently losing Ishar's Blade, nor has anyone reported hearing from someone who tried to prove they had Ishar's Blade. If a secret role removed a vote from Ventyl, then it seems Kaladin cancelled the vote of one of the Quinn voters without trying to prove access to Adhesion, after not influencing the results of Danex vs. Connie D1. One stormlight isn't a high cost for Kaladin, but it isn't nothing.

Yes, and that confuses me. I have absolutely no idea why Kaladin removed a vote from me--perhaps they thought I would make a good mislynch, since a bunch of people seemed suspicious of me at the time, and so Kaladin wanted to further draw attention to me? (Araris, Jester, STINK, Fura to an extent, Matrim, etc.)

Edited December 11, 2020 by Quinn0928

[He who goes DORIYAH!! he/him]

Can’t exactly remember who, But somebody posted that I was not an active voter (which is true) and that I should vote if not every cycle then at least some of the time. However, I am not really suspicious of anyone so far based on posts (I don’t know player habits or suspicious things) so I guess I will just agree with Matt and Connie and put Furamirionind 

[STINK he/him]

2 hours ago, Quinn0928 said:

I have been informed of the PM reasons for not voting Connie.

euuuuughggggggggh

[Quintessential she/her]

Just now, STINK said:

euuuuughggggggggh

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Well, I'm slightly biased, since I haven't played a game with Fura in a long time, but I don't read him as elim. I'm wary of all the PM stuff going around, and I'm still not entirely sure that we shouldn't lynch Ventyl. I'll try and do a comprehensive analysis post before the end of a cycle with a better vote in it, but I'll put a placeholder on Connie/Grammar right now (mostly as an info lynch, and this probably won't be my final vote, pending on my analysis).

[Furamirionind They/Any/All]

3 hours ago, Ookla's Dice said:

I'm now directly opposed to the Connie vote again. I was before, then I was skeptical, now I'm opposed to it again. Slightly sus of Fura for his push, but I don't know how willing elim!Fura would be to push that hard on vil!Connie. Lotus... I mean you could try to do something :P.

Very. xD

2 hours ago, Ookla the Grammatical said:

I'm going to join Mat on Furamirionind. They won't stop saying that they think I'm an elim.

Mmmmm... I mean, just going to throw out there that people voting on people that are voting on them, and for no other reason, is very sus to me... I know you said it's normal for you, and I've also noticed some other people doing it... but I am just throwing it out there.

2 hours ago, Ookla the Hypodecadal said:

It seems like nobody has counterclaimed Eternum about starting with and subsequently losing Ishar's Blade, nor has anyone reported hearing from someone who tried to prove they had Ishar's Blade. If a secret role removed a vote from Ventyl, then it seems Kaladin cancelled the vote of one of the Quinn voters without trying to prove access to Adhesion, after not influencing the results of Danex vs. Connie D1. One stormlight isn't a high cost for Kaladin, but it isn't nothing.

Personally if I had Ishar's blade I'd probably claim to 1-2 people I trust, and then prove it, and ask them to claim for me tomorrow. Ishar's blade is also one of the scarier ones in Elim hands, so if I still had it on me I wouldn't claim in thread. Similarly, if someone counter claimed in thread and said it was stolen from them, as an elim I'd probably kill them tonight as the chances of Eternum and this person not being in contact, yet Eturnum claiming the exact scenario that actually happened to someone is very very unlikely unless Eturnum is the stone shaman... Which there is a 1/13 chance of (assuming 6 elims)

I struggle analyzing Devotary as the only way for me to read her is to read far too far into her messages, which also has a high risk of overanalyzing. I do find it a little suspicious that devotary here is implying that someone should counter claim eternum if he's lying.

[Mat he/him]

24 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Very. xD

Hey, if you're not giving me a reason to unvote you... :P.

The honesty does help a bit, though. I do kinda want to reread MR42 looking specifically at you.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

18 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Personally if I had Ishar's blade I'd probably claim to 1-2 people I trust, and then prove it, and ask them to claim for me tomorrow. Ishar's blade is also one of the scarier ones in Elim hands, so if I still had it on me I wouldn't claim in thread. Similarly, if someone counter claimed in thread and said it was stolen from them, as an elim I'd probably kill them tonight as the chances of Eternum and this person not being in contact, yet Eturnum claiming the exact scenario that actually happened to someone is very very unlikely unless Eturnum is the stone shaman... Which there is a 1/13 chance of (assuming 6 elims)

I struggle analyzing Devotary as the only way for me to read her is to read far too far into her messages, which also has a high risk of overanalyzing. I do find it a little suspicious that devotary here is implying that someone should counter claim eternum if he's lying.

If Eternum was lying about starting with Ishar's Blade and having it stolen N1, it should be counterclaimed since that's the basis for assuming Eternum as a villager and that the information about the secret role removing a vote from Ventyl while Kaladin removes a vote from Quinn is correct. That doesn't mean the theoretical real Ishar bearer has to publicly say that's why Eternum is lying.

[Guest Somebody from Scadrial]

So, TJ is village, I'm pretty sure I've been sus of them every time I've played with him. That might just be a playstyle thing. Also, I believe Connie and Mat are likely a e/e or v/v, just throwing that out there. 

Stone Shaman if a person has more than two honorblades, consider taking the honorblades from them. This would stop the Elims from winning until you die.

[Mat he/him]

1 minute ago, Somebody from Sel said:

So, TJ is village, I'm pretty sure I've been sus of them every time I've played with him. That might just be a playstyle thing. Also, I believe Connie and Mat are likely a e/e or v/v, just throwing that out there. 

How would we be e/e :P. I've been attacked and survived, with a verifiable protection. (Or well... he's dead. Nearly verifiable protection.) Multiple people have pointed out the order of events that make elim!me basically impossible.

That aside, what do you think of Connie as an individual?

[Guest Somebody from Scadrial]

6 minutes ago, Ookla's Dice said:

How would we be e/e :P. I've been attacked and survived, with a verifiable protection. (Or well... he's dead. Nearly verifiable protection.) Multiple people have pointed out the order of events that make elim!me basically impossible.

That aside, what do you think of Connie as an individual?

I realize that, you guys are very closely intertwined so I don't really think you could be e/v.

I've second guessed my read on her so much it could change in seconds. 

[STINK he/him]

Well people have stopped PMing me so I guess I failed all my charm rolls, so it's either Quinn or Gears and of the two, I prefer Quinn

[Quintessential she/her]

8 minutes ago, STINK said:

Well people have stopped PMing me so I guess I failed all my charm rolls, so it's either Quinn or Gears and of the two, I prefer Quinn

Your "charm rolls"? I mean, if you think charm consists of informing me that I'm evil and deserve to be lynched...

Edited December 12, 2020 by Quinn0928

[He who goes DORIYAH!! he/him]

Personally I trust Quinn quite a bit, they're one of the few who I'm maybe getting a strong Villager vibe (along with mat and connie) My vote still stands but I am willing to have my mind changed.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Matrim is obviously village, and I've got a village read on STINK as well. It's sort of hard to tell with him, but I think his voting patterns are consistent with his village self. The next bit is on Connie, and I've spoilered it because it's got a lot of quotes.

Spoiler

Starting with early D1 posts, before there was a strong counterlynch.

Quote

Okay, maybe I'm overreacting a little bit. It's only two votes on me. Then again, I'm fairly certain people have been lynched with less.

I have used the advice. It's handy even if Gears is an elim because they can't post anything too obviously elim, so I can trust it fairly well. When I was a Hemalurgist(that was actually Viola as well), it kept me alive until the end(when the elims won).

Wouldn't it be better to refrain from voting first cycle unless we have really good evidence? It's always been wrong in my games, and the chance of them actually being an elim are slim.

And I think I might get to that point, but I'm currently in a stage where I want to know and plan starting right when I sign up. I haven't done an extensive study of the rules, but I know my way around them pretty well.

Edit: Illwei, it may seem pretty obvious, but it certainly hasn't been followed well in my past games. If we don't kill anyone D1, we still have time to think and we can find better evidence.

I get a really defensive tone from this post. Even the suggestion to not have a D1 lynch seems motivated somewhat by Connie being up for the lynch on D1.

Quote

It can be right, but it's unlikely. And information... based on reads of the dead person? No one has concrete reads C1 but the elims, who already know who each other are.

The D1 lynch is just another data point. The village's best chance at winning is accumulation of date, plus a bit of luck.

Quote

I guess that's true, but I'm often more Kant than Bentham. In my opinion, if the action is moral then the outcome doesn't matter. Bentham is the ends justify the means. It still seems kind of useless to me. I seem to remember bringing it up before, although that could be just me. The reason I brought it up now is because I've had three games where it happened. There's an old Celtic saying that covers it. One man may be deceit. Two can be conspiracy. Three is the number I trust.(Props if you get the reference!) And another saying: Three's a crowd. When it happened the first and second time, there was still a possibility that they were outliers. Three is often my line, no matter what it's for.

This post makes me read Connie a bit more as village. This is similar, I think, to something Danex posted in the last LG (I was elim then, but the point stands). I heavily disagree, since I think this approach would lead to just never using the lynch, but the argument itself seems village.

Quote

I'll try not to.  Murder is bad even if it's for a good cause.

Can I get a vote count? Because that's either... 3 or 4 votes on me. @Ookla Fell From The Sky

This is the same as above. I quote it because the vote count request itself emphasizes votes on Connie, rather than the overall game state.

Quote

Oh yay, my acting's working! Seriously though, my siblings could tell you. I'm totally acting, plus I read through some more games and I'm prepared to deal with this in some of the first cycles like my other games. I get attention eventually, I think. My heart's pounding, though. I'm also planning my 'last post' just in case.

Thanks for the vote count

Connie says she is acting, referring to being less stressed out maybe?

Quote

Acting. Like, pretending like I'm not scared out of my wits.

Last post? How would that make you think I'm not vanilla? I always over-analyse people's reads, so I figure I may as well post a list for other people to over-analyse.

Yeah.

Quote

What are you talking about? You totally PMed me and were like, "Yeah, you're a Hemalurgist." I denied it, but you were so certain! (And then you though I was H4 instead of H6 and I laughed a lot, but that's beside the point.) If I were Truthless, I'd be a lot more suspicious. It's practically a given for anyone who knows me that the emotion I'm displaying could definitely be contrary to the emotion I'm feeling. I'm a good actor, and I know that doesn't help my case. You can't know if I'm an elim based on how I act. But you should trust me because I'm not lying to you. I'm not an elim. Neither am I the Truthless, nor the Stone Shaman. I'm not all that important, but if you kill me it's one villager dead and however many elims still alive.

If you want to think I'm the Truthless, go ahead. I can't stop you. But consider carefully your votes.

Wow, that turned into a huge thing. Sorry about that, I just got started on a little rant. TL;DR: I'm a good actor, you shouldn't kill me because I'm not lying to you. Although it might be fun to have my first D1 lynch, I want to be here and help out.

This is one of the first posts that bugs me a lot (emphasis mine). We find elims based on their actions (read: votes and discussion). We certainly don't find villagers by looking for people who claim to be village. 

Quote

Think about it. Those last times, I had an important role. I'm not important this time, I'm just a villager. I'd still like to keep from dying, but it's not really all that vital.

This bit seems really fake to me. Practically every post Connie has made so far has emphasized not getting lynched, so I'm pretty sure Connie sees not dying as vital, based on her actions. She could be Neutral with a survival role, but this isn't really a village mindset.

Everything after this point is after people have mostly switched off of Connie.

Quote

Quote unquote "absolutely no reason", you mean. Now that you're fairly certain that I'm not Truthless(you'll trust me that I'm not Truthless but not that I'm not an elim?), you're perfectly fine voting me out. I'm sorry, this just pushes all of my buttons. You were the first one to vote on me because I said that we need to be careful and yeah, that's obvious, but I still thought it needed to be said because in my other games, we weren't very cautious about voting. The elims won in all three of those. You took it off because (after Quinn pointed it out) you said you thought I might be Truthless and "I just want to make sure that if she has a role then she's not gonna die." Then you put it back on because I'm defending myself, unlike a Truthless would. This seems really suspicious to me. Illwei. Anyone else agree?

Here we get a really strong reaction to Illwei voting on Connie again. We see the same defensive mindset here.

Following this are a lot of short posts that don't really say anything. At least one of them repeats the non-elim claim.

So overall I stand by my suspicion on Connie. If Connie is elim, then I'd guess that 1-2 of the other votes on Danex are elim as well. Honestly, I'd pick out Alvron as the most suspicious. He had a great excuse to vote Danex, and would probably be where I looked next if Connie flipped elim.

This post by Quinn seems pretty village to me. I can't think of a situation where an elim would want to post this.

Quote

Ah, fair enough... I forgot to consider the possibility that everyone we're suspecting is village...

This post by Experience makes me think he's village as well. It's not too much, but I doubt an elim would post this

Quote

I'll counter that: Matrim

Fura posted this, which is the sort of thing I like to see (even if it isn't necessarily AI for Fura):

Quote

Who do you think is an elim at the moment?

I'm also going to stand by my suspicion of Ventyl. So the TLDR is:

Village
Matrim
STINK
Experience (flip from my previous read)
Fura
Quinn

Elim
Connie -> Alvron
Ventyl

Post More
Everyone else

Edited December 12, 2020 by Ookla the Araris Valerian
Experience flipped village already :/

[Mat he/him]

2 minutes ago, Ookla the Araris Valerian said:

This post by Experience makes me think he's village as well. It's not too much, but I doubt an elim would post this

I mean, we already lynched Exp and he flipped village, so...