Long Game 72: The Secret of Shinovar

[Illwei]

35 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

• Ookla the Shadowed / Experience (4): Ookla's Dice / Matrim's Dice, Flyingbooks42, Lotus, Quinn0928
• Ookla the Larkin / Ventyl (3): Ookla the Araris Valerian / Araris Valerian, Ooklil' the Wei / Illwei, Furamirionind, Ookla the Grammatical / Condensation
• Quinn0928 (1): STINK, Ookla the Shadowed / Experience
• Ookla the Araris Valerian / Araris Valerian (1): Somebody from Sel
• Somebody from Sel (1): TJ Shade
• Furamirionind (1): Ookla the Larkin / Ventyl
• Gears (1): Quinn0928
• TJ Shade (1): Ookla the Hypodecadal / Devotary of Spontaneity

He was asking for before the vote manip, I thought. 

• Ookla the Shadowed / Experience (4): Ookla's Dice / Matrim's Dice, Flyingbooks42, Lotus, Quinn0928
• Ookla the Larkin / Ventyl (4): Ookla the Araris Valerian / Araris Valerian, Ooklil' the Wei / Illwei, Furamirionind, Ookla the Grammatical / Condensation
• Quinn0928 (2): STINK, Ookla the Shadowed / Experience
• Ookla the Araris Valerian / Araris Valerian (1): Somebody from Sel
• Somebody from Sel (1): TJ Shade
• Furamirionind (1): Ookla the Larkin / Ventyl
• Gears (1): Quinn0928
• TJ Shade (1): Ookla the Hypodecadal / Devotary of Spontaneity

[Illwei]

5 hours ago, Ookla's Dice said:

I still think it's hilarious you're asking this after everyone (you included) blew up at me at the suggestion...

Hey hey hey I've explained this before. I'm me, you're you :P. Let me be a hippogriff :P. 

[Eternum he/him]

Shaman, you can trust me 

We both know the elims wouldn't start with that blade!

Also, heavy sus on Quinn. That is all.

[Quintessential she/her]

7 hours ago, Ookla the Araris Valerian said:

If there ever has been a player that embodies the opposite of PM safety, that player is Illwei.

Or me

4 hours ago, Eternum said:

Wait, Ishar's Blade? What's going on here?

Can someone get me a vote tally before all the cancellations or whatever?

Yes, Ishar's Blade is the other Blade that can remove a vote. Since we saw two vote-removals, we know Ishar's came into play at least once, with Kaladin being the other

2 hours ago, Eternum said:

We both know the elims wouldn't start with that blade!

What does this mean?

[Eternum he/him]

2 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

Yes, Ishar's Blade is the other Blade that can remove a vote. Since we saw two vote-removals, we know Ishar's came into play at least once, with Kaladin being the other

What does this mean?

Not quite. As far as I am aware, Ishar's Blade having been used last cycle is impossible. Take that as you will. Also, I have plenty of reason to believe Kaladin's Adhesion was used on you, specifically, so..

I wonder what it means.. 

[Quintessential she/her]

Just now, Eternum said:

Not quite. As far as I am aware, Ishar's Blade having been used last cycle is impossible. Take that as you will. Also, I have plenty of reason to believe Kaladin's Adhesion was used on you, specifically, so..

I wonder what it means.. 

So, what are you saying? That one of the secret roles has a vote-manip? Because that would be the only explanation if Ishar's Blade was somehow out of commission (I'm going to guess you mean that whoever currently has it doesn't have Stormlight?).

I don't know who used Adhesion on me, so you could be right that it was Kaladin, but I don't know why Kaladin would. I'm village, so if Kaladin used a vote-manip on me it would have been to try to frame me, but I was never in danger so that wouldn't have worked? And even if you believe I'm an elim (which you seem to), I was once again never in danger of being lynched, so I don't know why Kaladin would use their ability on me (or rather, either STINK or Araris), regardless of my alignment.

For that matter, I also don't know why Ishar or a secret role would use a vote-manip on someone voting for me either, unless they used it on that person before that person switched to me. But we've already looked at that, and it doesn't seem likely. The explanation that makes the most sense is that someone was proving a Blade claim (or perhaps Kaladin was "proving" to have Ishar's Blade, if you're correct), and needed to demonstrate that they could actually do things. 

[Eternum he/him]

41 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

So, what are you saying? That one of the secret roles has a vote-manip? Because that would be the only explanation if Ishar's Blade was somehow out of commission (I'm going to guess you mean that whoever currently has it doesn't have Stormlight?).

I don't know who used Adhesion on me, so you could be right that it was Kaladin, but I don't know why Kaladin would. I'm village, so if Kaladin used a vote-manip on me it would have been to try to frame me, but I was never in danger so that wouldn't have worked? And even if you believe I'm an elim (which you seem to), I was once again never in danger of being lynched, so I don't know why Kaladin would use their ability on me (or rather, either STINK or Araris), regardless of my alignment.

For that matter, I also don't know why Ishar or a secret role would use a vote-manip on someone voting for me either, unless they used it on that person before that person switched to me. But we've already looked at that, and it doesn't seem likely. The explanation that makes the most sense is that someone was proving a Blade claim (or perhaps Kaladin was "proving" to have Ishar's Blade, if you're correct), and needed to demonstrate that they could actually do things. 

Again, Ishar's Blade cannot have been used last cycle. So, if we accept the theory that Kaladin was trying to prove they have Ishar's Blade, using Tension on whomever they're trying to pocket would be a far better way of proving they have Ishar's Blade than Adhesion, and Kaladin cannot do this, which is obviously a red flag. Having said this: If anyone out there had this interaction with someone (i.e someone tried to prove to them they have Ishar's Blade), please come out and say it. That's Kaladin trying to pocket you, not the wielder of Ishar's Blade building a trust circle.

Edited December 10, 2020 by Eternum
Typo

[STINK he/him]

Y'all going nuts to each other in PMs has really made a mockery of this whole lynch huh

[Quintessential she/her]

24 minutes ago, STINK said:

Y'all going nuts to each other in PMs has really made a mockery of this whole lynch huh

I'm not quite sure what you mean by that? 

[He who goes DORIYAH!! he/him]

I’m sorry, but that is a nice amount of posts Quinn

[Quintessential she/her]

4 minutes ago, Ookla who goes DORIYAH!! said:

I’m sorry, but that is a nice amount of posts Quinn

XD I hadn't noticed that... 

But you know what's even better? Your post is the 69th in this thread  

[Condensation she/her]

3 hours ago, Eternum said:

Again, Ishar's Blade cannot have been used last cycle. So, if we accept the theory that Kaladin was trying to prove they have Ishar's Blade, using Tension on whomever they're trying to pocket would be a far better way of proving they have Ishar's Blade than Adhesion, and Kaladin cannot do this, which is obviously a red flag. Having said this: If anyone out there had this interaction with someone (i.e someone tried to prove to them they have Ishar's Blade), please come out and say it. That's Kaladin trying to pocket you, not the wielder of Ishar's Blade building a trust circle.

Can't it? What if the person who got it already had Stormlight from a different Blade or because they're a Radiant?

[He who goes DORIYAH!! he/him]

32 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

XD I hadn't noticed that... 

But you know what's even better? Your post is the 69th in this thread  

Wait...really?

[Gears]

I'm really sorry for not paying attention to this. Finals are coming up next week, I have a robotics and CS competition on Saturday, life is hectic, and I'm thinking of dropping out [Ash, respond to my eloquent PM] I am only vaguely aware of what is going on right now. 

Pailiah's Blade was held by Experience. This implies that Experience was the one who protected Matrim, since PMs are still up and running. However, if PMs die next turn, that somewhat shows that Vedel was the one who protected, since they shouldn't be out of Stormlight until the turn after, and Chanarach was the one who opened PMs first. The Matrim WGG even less likely, since I don't think elims would want to keep PMs open. 

So, as has been discussed, there were two instances of vote removal. The only Surge that can remove votes is Adhesion, so both Ishar and Kaladin acted. Concerning the vote off Quinn, it could have been someone submitting an early action because Adhesion cancels a person's vote, not removes a vote from a person. Quinn's voters: Experience, STINK. To start, Experience was voting Araris and STINK was voting Quinn. Then Experience voted Quinn. This was a matter of proof, not saving people. If you got Ishar to "prove" themself via Adhesion, that just might be Kaladin. Be wary.

[Eternum he/him]

21 minutes ago, Ookla the Grammatical said:

Can't it? What if the person who got it already had Stormlight from a different Blade or because they're a Radiant?

Transferring Blades happens during the Night, after Surge actions are taken, and thus a transferred Blade cannot be used until the next cycle. Ishar's Blade was in my possession N1 and was subsequently Recalled that same night. I confirmed this by using Tension on Mat: the aforementioned "lengths" I went to to pocket him, as he put it. Ishar's Blade was not used to alter the vote count. It was a secret role and Kaladin. I have it on very good authority that Kaladin removed one of the votes on Quinn. So, as I said in my other post, if anyone tried to prove their possession of Ishar's Blade by removing one of those votes, they are Kaladin, not the wielder of Ishar's Blade.

The Shaman can confirm everything regarding Ishar's Blade, but I'd like to ask them to stay hidden, though I probably don't need to.

[Condensation she/her]

2 minutes ago, Eternum said:

Transferring Blades happens during the Night, after Surge actions are taken, and thus a transferred Blade cannot be used until the next cycle. Ishar's Blade was in my possession N1 and was subsequently Recalled that same night. I confirmed this by using Tension on Mat: the aforementioned "lengths" I went to to pocket him, as he put it. Ishar's Blade was not used to alter the vote count. It was a secret role and Kaladin. I have it on very good authority that Kaladin removed one of the votes on Quinn. So, as I said in my other post, if anyone tried to prove their possession of Ishar's Blade by removing one of those votes, they are Kaladin, not the wielder of Ishar's Blade.

The Shaman can confirm everything regarding Ishar's Blade, but I'd like to ask them to stay hidden, though I probably don't need to.

Ah, okay. Makes sense.

[Quintessential she/her]

1 minute ago, Eternum said:

Transferring Blades happens during the Night, after Surge actions are taken, and thus a transferred Blade cannot be used until the next cycle. Ishar's Blade was in my possession N1 and was subsequently Recalled that same night. I confirmed this by using Tension on Mat: the aforementioned "lengths" I went to to pocket him, as he put it. Ishar's Blade was not used to alter the vote count. It was a secret role and Kaladin. I have it on very good authority that Kaladin removed one of the votes on Quinn. So, as I said in my other post, if anyone tried to prove their possession of Ishar's Blade by removing one of those votes, they are Kaladin, not the wielder of Ishar's Blade.

So you're saying that N1 you used Tension on Mat to try to gain his trust, and then your Blade was recalled (order of actions -> Surges happen before reclaims). So you know that D2, Ishar's Blade was in the possession of the Stone Shaman, who is probably transferring it away this turn, and who can't use Blades so Ishar's Blade can't have been used?

[Eternum he/him]

Pretty much, yes.

[Mat he/him]

2 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

So you're saying that N1 you used Tension on Mat to try to gain his trust, and then your Blade was recalled (order of actions -> Surges happen before reclaims). So you know that D2, Ishar's Blade was in the possession of the Stone Shaman, who is probably transferring it away this turn, and who can't use Blades so Ishar's Blade can't have been used?

This is true. 

[Guest Somebody from Scadrial]

2 minutes ago, Ookla's Dice said:

This is true. 

Mat confirming this means that this is e/e, v/e or v/v. Meaning if Mat is an Elim, so is Eternum, but if Mat is village, it doesn't mean anything.

[Eternum he/him]

1 minute ago, Somebody from Sel said:

Mat confirming this means that this is e/e, v/e or v/v. Meaning if Mat is an Elim, so is Eternum, but if Mat is village, it doesn't mean anything.

I don't think you narrowed anything down here. If Mat's elim, I could have easily pocketed myself Doesn't matter, though.

If the hypothesis of Kaladin "proving" himself didn't actually play out, then I'm significantly more sus of Quinn. The elims wouldn't waste their Stormlight like that and, imo, it's possible that was just Kaladin preemptively protecting an elim they thought had a lot of sus on them and going to sleep before the end of the cycle. A lot of people were willing to vote her, iirc.

[|TJ| he/him]

Okay replying to all the stuff from when I went to sleep:

Quote

Also not sure why Sel is up for lynhc. Didn't people say they usually bandwagon, yet they are being voted on for bandwagoning? I think?

@Furamirionind Okay this is being said for the second time and I'm replying for the same thing again, not sure how you missed my actual reasoning as it's on the same page as this post. The reason I find SfS suspicious is not because of bandwagoning. 

Quote

Genuinely convinced SfS is an elim or has one of the Secret roles because there's no way I believe anyone wants to sacrifice themselves to potentially protect an Honorblade village because a. it's about chances as there's no guarantee that the elims would hit an honorblade bearer in the first place b. Vanilla villager can do as much damage with analysis as any role. c. Vanilla villager can be a future potential Honorblade holder and d. If it was really SfS' intentions, he wouldn't have revealed it. 

SfS then ignores this reasoning, gives no response to this suspicion and tells he'd prefer a vote on me. I'd ask everyone who is not reading SfS as suspicious, what is the plan/idea/point behind claiming a Blade, then immediately, in his very next post (and just 1 post after his post in the thread), he claims to want to draw the kill of elims? Why tell the plan immediately then? Why create unnecessary IKYK situations, when IKYK situation only confuses the village as elims have a lot other players they can choose to kill. Explain how it makes sense from village!SfS point of view.

Books and Lotus vote in succession on Experience. I particularly do not like how Books' vote looks at all:

Quote

I'm going to vote Experience because his posts have seemed vague and strange (in a slightly elim-y way) to me.

Lotus feels like an elim too, but  she's feels too suspicious to be an elim.

Quote

I just have noticed those three (Quinn and TJ in particular) read each other as null/null +, which seems like an elim thing to do to teammates early game unless you're in to heavy bussing. Those three are more likely elims together than elims alone, imo.

Okay, this is the second time that someone has wrongly stated my reads in the game (Illwei, looking at you ), I don't know what's up with that. I don't state null in my posts at all. I read Quinn village and Experience as elim at the time of last reads posts. I still read Quinn as village, she seems like she did in MR46. I have not gone through elim!Quinn's thread activity in QF48, though I did check the elim doc, so I should do that to see the differences. 

Alone this doesn't look like much, but since I found the vote on Experience off, this sentence looks performative by Books:

Quote

Since the votes on the top 3 people are 3-2-2, this lynch is especially vulnerable to vote manipulation, and we know that the elims have at least 1 (2 if they got Kalak's blade) source of vote manipulation, so voting is especially important now. 

I might have to ISO Books as I found their earlier posts as village.

Quote

There's enough time for you to vote on someone you actually suspect and then switch later if its nonviable (this made more sense at the time I started writing this post). For instance, TJ Shade. Supposedly a lot of people want to vote for him, but nobody has.

I'm not voting Gears today. I'm somewhat surprised the votes for Connie went away, but that might be a point in her favor. Quinn is slipping but not yet vote-worthy. Don't have a lot on Fura. I'd look at SfS if XP flips elim. The post Araris was voted on for doesn't seem especially suspicious and nothing else is particularly AI. The Ventyl votes are for supporting Condensation. I don't know why the Truthless would be indifferent to someone getting voted out, as the Truthless had no special information about alignment and just wanted to get votes for themself. The Experience votes are for an odd vote on Araris, apparent odd tone, and PM reasons. Of the XP voters, I'm feeling better about Matrim, Books seems fine, and I'm not feeling great about Quinn or Lotus.

I believe this vote was to see if there was a response to the suspicion? The voting itself is un-Devotary-istic as they always vote for the main lynches at the end of cycles. That alone doesn't warrant suspicion, however it does remove the village read I had on them. Especially since they mentioned not feeling great about Lotus' reason to vote on Experience but Books seems fine, whereas both had somewhat similar reasons to vote on Exp.

Experience being the Pailiah Bearer reduces the possibility of Mat being WGG, because then it would require elim!Vedel to have used PMs in D1 and Progression in N1, which I find unlikely. Kaladin to remove a vote on Quinn makes no sense. I'd imagine Gravitation is more important as it can act as an indirect Blade Scan, and getting Blades is their alternate wincon. Kaladin!Quinn could have been extra careful and removed a vote to account for any possible late votes on here. I'm not sure of what happened here.

I'd like to ask the Shaman to compare the lists of last cycle and this cycle to find Pailiah's Blade Bearer. Only if you're extremely sure of the Bearer, leave it in their hands. If you're not, please reclaim it, as it gives elims unblockable kills, and immunity to scans.

[Quintessential she/her]

16 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

I'd like to ask the Shaman to compare the lists of last cycle and this cycle to find Pailiah's Blade Bearer. Only if you're extremely sure of the Bearer, leave it in their hands. If you're not, please reclaim it, as it gives elims unblockable kills, and immunity to scans.

Actually, Pailiah's Blade gives Progression (healing) and Illumination (which is immunity to scans as well as RBs and vote-manips). So, it's bad but it's not as bad as if it had Division on it too (the combination of Division and Illumination does not exist).

[Eternum he/him]

No, TJ means that Illumination lets the kill go through roleblocks. I believe that would result in kills that can't be prevented by roleblocks, but could still be prevented by Progression.

Edited December 10, 2020 by Eternum

[Quintessential she/her]

1 minute ago, Eternum said:

No, TJ means that Illumination lets the kill go through roleblocks. I believe that would result in kills that can't be prevented by roleblocks, but could still be prevented by Progression.

Ohhh okay that makes more sense. Also now that I think about it I should have realized that from the phrasing, since Division is blockable.

22 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

I still read Quinn as village, she seems like she did in MR46.

This is apparently an unpopular opinion, but thank you