Long Game 72: The Secret of Shinovar

[Guest Somebody from Scadrial]

3 minutes ago, STINK said:

His reads are worth nothing because he gave no reasoning or anything, he is worth null to this game now so cheers to everyone that did PM him

Nobody likes a hater, on a serious note, he did give reads, a third of them are incorrect, maybe even two, but he still have reasoning a few.

Revitalized by the Highstorm, Somebody, the eldest of Somebody's, stood. The youth, Battar, had escaped and taken her blade with her, while this was unfortunate, he needed no honorblades. People though him an Alethi infiltrator simply because he was more skilled, because he wasn't foolish like Mysterious. Fools. He remembered when the humans had first come to these lands, from a far away planet. Honor and Cultivation had bid him and his brethren allow them to leave here. He had given up the grudge long ago, but now he stood against Honor and Cultivation for causing this, he also stood against Odium for once sponsoring these beasts, he was a lone hunter. I will help these Shin in the meantime however, after all, it will help me in my quest. He decided to log it for his future incarnations to speed out to his people. My quest, Singers, is to kill the Shards.

Edited December 14, 2020 by Somebody from Sel

[Ookla-son-son-Ventyl]

Fura

I’m continuing voting on you. Partially for gut reason along with my reason stated Day 2, and now with @Ookla the Mistiosa (Welcome to Shinovar by the way!) pointing out what seems like a Freudian Slip, my suspicions have only risen. If I can find the time in the next tomorrow I’ll give some analysis of Fura’s post and point out the ones that’ve rubbed me wrong. The analysis probably won’t be fully up to Ventyl standards becauses I have finals and the State Marching contest next week.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

1 hour ago, Alvron said:

Hmm, with six Blades now in game, it is now a little easier for the elims to gain their win con that way in addition to the standard win con. 

I think the elims needed all seven Blades to win, so that win con is now impossible.

56 minutes ago, STINK said:

Yeah na looks like I was completely right about the whole Dice situation so see yas

How much do you want villagers to share reads on people that are village for role reasons? If someone is read as a non-elim because they've demonstrably proven to be the Stone Shaman, the original Bearers of Ishar or Chanarach's Blades, or a neutral role, what would you want brought up in thread?

50 minutes ago, Ookla the Mistiosa said:

Fura said the event of having one kill was worse in every way than 2. More than one kill is, in the way Fura was setting it up, worse than one kill, as opposed to 1 kill being worse than 2, which seems like a Freudian slip. 

I don't think 2 kills is worse than 1 in the model? In the five elim scenario, only one Chana kill instead of two ends up reaching a night turn with 6-2(or 1 now)-5, which is just as much of a loss as 5-2-5 since parity will be reached after the elim kill. In the four elim scenario, one Chana kill goes to 6-2-4 instead of 5-2-4 at the beginning of D6, which still loses at the end of N6. Fura's model neglects the possibility of elim kills being roleblocked or the target protected so "worse in every way" isn't strictly accurate for anything but the worst case scenario, but having that second Chanarach kill opens up the possibility of hitting an elim.

[+Lotus she/her]

I was suspicious that Mat was not pure village. Great job!

Edited December 14, 2020 by Lotus

[Furamirionind They/Any/All]

Hey everyone... So idk how much I'm going to be active this cycle... I'll put my reads out and then I may just let you all kill me after that.

Like honestly, I'm cool with people being suspicious of me, and I'm used to people finding my playstyle kind of suspicious, but I'm not used to people being so reactionary. There were a couple overly reactionary people in my championship game on MU, and the way my elim team responded to them is we said they were village. We let other vilagers say those people were sus, and when they said that, the reactionary players tried to take over the thread and get one of the two people lynched...

I think being reactionary kind of detracts from the game and discourages analysis. Instead of doing real analysis, people just say, "You're voting on a person I trust so you must be evil"... But you're forgetting I don't have your information.
In fact, none of you have shared either publicly or in my PMs why I should trust Connie. Due to this, as Connie is my highest suspicion, I am obligated as a villager to push for my highest suspicion. If I am given reasons to trust her, that's great. Maybe she wont be my highest suspicion anymore. But if I'm not given that information, then there she stays.

Matrim was a neutral. Without knowing his wincon we cannot know if he was genuinely trying to solve the game or not. Even if we assume he was genuinely trying to solve the game, he wouldn't care as much as a villager due to his win not revolving around it, and therefore there might be some issues with his analysis or whatever. We couldn't before, and we still can't take his word as law.

Also going to throw out there... I'm a PM player. When I play these games, I like to PM people and through those try to tease out information and manipulate people... To differing extents as village/elim. This is the first ever game I've been in where I will ask whoever has the power to open PMs, to not open them anymore. They are actually detracting from the information the village has, because all we've got from them is a circle of players that have cleared each other for some reason and wont tell anyone, and we outside that circle have no reason to trust any of them.

1 hour ago, Ookla the Mistiosa said:

Fura said the event of having one kill was worse in every way than 2. More than one kill is, in the way Fura was setting it up, worse than one kill, as opposed to 1 kill being worse than 2, which seems like a Freudian slip. 

MMmm I am not completely sure what you mean here. Or maybe I wasn't clear? The number of kills I was talking about was the number of Chana kills. I said 1 was worse than two because whether Chana kills once or twice, we have the same number of lynches either way. If we have the same number of lynches, it would be better for a villlage Chana to get more kills in because that's a net gain of village directed deaths, meaning a greater chance of hitting an elim. 

In short, in debating the second kill:
If she doesn't, we better lynch correctly.
If she does, either we better lynch correctly or she needs to hit an elim. Either will do.

[Ashbringer he/him]

56 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Matrim was a neutral. Without knowing his wincon we cannot know if he was genuinely trying to solve the game or not. Even if we assume he was genuinely trying to solve the game, he wouldn't care as much as a villager due to his win not revolving around it, and therefore there might be some issues with his analysis or whatever. We couldn't before, and we still can't take his word as law.

I will say, Mat’s wincon was to get Battar’s Honorblade. Or at least, that’s the wincon that he succeeded at. That’s not supposed to be incredibly secret.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Since Connie was "cleared" by PM reasons from Matrim, and Matrim wasn't village, that means Connie is no longer safe, so far as I can tell. I'm happy to discuss my analysis with anyone, and I would guess that Matrim made some kind of deal with Connie for the honorblade, which is why he didn't want us to lynch her.

Based on the lynch last cycle, I am also suspicious of Lotus. Ventyl is still on my radar from previously. 

[Condensation she/her]

Viola had gone walking again. It calmed her. This time, she was worried about Daziron. Apparently he hadn't been Daziron at all, but one of the storming Heralds themselves! And female, for that matter. She'd left, taking an Honorblade with her. At least she'd make it out of here alive. Right now, her chances of that weren't looking too good, although she'd convinced the others of her innocence. However, not one of the intruders had been caught and she couldn't do much to help other than vote. Voting seemed useless if they were only going to catch and kill more members of the Shin High Council, speeding the intruders' victory. She'd just have to keep going on her own reads, using others as a crutch. Why did she and Connie keep getting caught up in these crazy schemes? This was supposed to be a break. A time to relax. Instead, she ended up fighting against more pretenders she couldn't see. She'd committed, though, and she wouldn't give it up. She'd either get rid of these fakers or sneak out when they tried executing her like the others had.

Well, the end of another walk and she'd come full circle. Nothing new to do, nothing new resolved. She was getting tired of this.

Edit: Wait, you think I had Battar's Honorblade? No, no I did not. Never have.

Edit edit: I just realized. Since we have PMs, that means that Chanarach cannot have used Division. Right? Well, unless under super specific circumstances that would be extremely unlikely(Kaladin or Szeth, who both get 3 Stormlight instead of 2, started with Chanarach). So the secret role must have done them.

Did it ever specify that there were two secret roles?

Edited December 14, 2020 by Ookla the Grammatical

[Ashbringer he/him]

1 hour ago, Ookla the Grammatical said:

Did it ever specify that there were two secret roles?

Always two there are. No more, no less.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

1 hour ago, Ookla the Grammatical said:

Edit: Wait, you think I had Battar's Honorblade? No, no I did not. Never have.

Well, since we are all about being honest in these games, I'll just have to take your word for it.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

16 minutes ago, Ookla the Araris Valerian said:

Well, since we are all about being honest in these games, I'll just have to take your word for it.

TJ had Battar's Blade as of N2 and both transfers and claims happen after deaths, so the only way Condensation could have gotten the Blade in time to give it to Matrim is for her to have killed TJ N2. Eternum seemed to believe that the elims were the ones to kill Illwei N2, and if true would mean that if Connie did kill TJ she wouldn't be an elim. Right now I believe we only have Condensation's word that Chanarach opened PMs N2 and thus couldn't kill anyone, though supposedly Jester can confirm. We know Matrim didn't kill TJ because doing so would have made him win at the end of D3.

For this to be a conspiracy where Connie is an elim I think we'd need the elims to 1. Either have Vedel's Blade or get information from them and therefore know what cycles Chanarach opened PMs or have Chanarach/an ally freely share this information with elim!Condensation and 2. Either have Eternum also be evil and be fully lying about starting with Ishar's Blade with the Shaman never bothering to contradict this claim or a secret kill role allies with the elims and lies to Eternum (or is Eternum, but this runs into the Ishar claim problem again), telling him they killed TJ when it was actually elim!Connie who killed TJ.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Hmm. Well, that doesn't exactly answer the question of why neutral!Matrim would want Connie to not get lynched. He wasn't in any danger of getting lynched himself, and the only thing I can think of is some shenanigans with that Blade.

Edit:

2 hours ago, Ookla the Grammatical said:

I just realized. Since we have PMs, that means that Chanarach cannot have used Division. Right? Well, unless under super specific circumstances that would be extremely unlikely(Kaladin or Szeth, who both get 3 Stormlight instead of 2, started with Chanarach)

The elims almost certainly don't have Chanarach (since they would be getting kills), but they could have Vedel (and could have passed it to Kal/Szeth, but I doubt Szeth). 

Edited December 14, 2020 by Ookla the Araris Valerian

[+JesterLavorre she/they]

2 hours ago, Ookla the Hypodecadal said:

TJ had Battar's Blade as of N2 and both transfers and claims happen after deaths, so the only way Condensation could have gotten the Blade in time to give it to Matrim is for her to have killed TJ N2. Eternum seemed to believe that the elims were the ones to kill Illwei N2, and if true would mean that if Connie did kill TJ she wouldn't be an elim. Right now I believe we only have Condensation's word that Chanarach opened PMs N2 and thus couldn't kill anyone, though supposedly Jester can confirm. We know Matrim didn't kill TJ because doing so would have made him win at the end of D3.

All I know is that Connie told me in PMs that she was in contact with Chanarach and that Chana had opened PMs twice. Then, I asked Matrim (in PMs) to confirm and he said he also trusted Connie’s claim about Chana and that he had a source that backed it up.

Of course, Matrim isn’t exactly trustworthy here, either, so take that all as you will.

[Condensation she/her]

6 hours ago, Ookla the Araris Valerian said:

Well, since we are all about being honest in these games, I'll just have to take your word for it.

I know that was sarcasm, but (shoot, lost my witness  ) I'm trying not to lie. Mist doesn't.

Well, there's no way to prove it either way.

[Ookla-son-son-Ventyl]

I won’t be on at all during the next turn, because my band has to take a five hour drive to the State Marching competition. I’ll be here for D5, assuming I don’t die between now and then.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Vote Tally:
Fura (2): Mist, Ventyl
Connie (1): Araris

For comparison, there are 17 players still alive. The elims aren’t going to find themselves, you know. If everyone waits till the last 3 hours of the cycle to place a vote, then we don’t get very good discussion.

[+Lotus she/her]

I think it was Fura in the grass with a Larkin!

[STINK he/him]

I reckon Matrim was chilling with the elims to get some things going on, so I'll pick someone from them for my vote when I get around to it

[He who goes DORIYAH!! he/him]

So, just logged on, what's a Fruedian slip? Fura's anysis made (somewhat) sense to me, and it didn't look like anything was weird.

[Eternum he/him]

Good job, Mat. Claiming Vasher was clever, but it didn't make much sense after a bit of thought

I'd like to apologize for my inactivity these past couple of days, and I owe Quinn an apology too..

I saw Connie asking if I've played before: yeah, I have. QF45 is my most recent, and probably the most indicative of how I play. Also, it's the only game I remember by number besides MR29

As for Mat, I'm pretty sure he was really trying to solve the game. Regardless.

I'm.. starting to think the elims started with no Blades and this whole thing was a red herring. Shaman, I'd appreciate you contacting me, but I suppose it's fine if you don't trust me.

I won't vote yet, but I'd be willing to lynch Lotus or SfS. I'm not sure if I could be persuaded to vote Fura but we'll see what I'll think on a reread.

20 hours ago, Somebody from Sel said:

I know his reads are at least partially wrong, so not the most useful thing in the world, but not the least.

Mind sharing why, then?

[+JesterLavorre she/they]

I still don’t love the Fura lynch. Mist, where is this slip you’re talking about? I’m not quite sure what a Freudian slip is, so I could use some explanation.

Also, Connie’s main reason for lynching Fura was him tunneling on her. While I think that Connie is village, I also think that’s a bad reason to vote.

And, yes I’m aware there are other reasons for voting Fura, I just read them as village.

[Alvron]

I too wouldn't mind if you contacted me Shaman.    I don't bite.

[Furamirionind They/Any/All]

A Freudian slip is basically like, saying something that unintentionally reveals something about you.

Working on my post... I'm 3 people into it lol

[Araris Valerian he/him]

You know, since I'm village and all, I also wouldn't mind if the Shaman contacted me. Although I'd have to kill you immediately afterwards for the sake of PM safety .

[+Lotus she/her]

Honestly Fura isn’t my top choice. Thinking it might behoove us to Lynch some more inactive players