Experience he/him Posted October 30, 2020 Posted October 30, 2020 2 hours ago, Illwei said: @Ashbringer what about books makes you think they're an Elim? @Experience i see you marking posts NAI or summarizing them, but not which way they lean. So- kinda confused about how you ended up with Turtle = Elim @Flyingbooks42 kinda a hard question I guess, but in what way does Experience's analysis agree with you? @Wind please do not reveal your role. Sorry, but it took long enough as is to summarize everything. As for turtle. 1. They were jumping all over the place, and I'll start with the mist lynching. They lynched them because they thought they could be the HI, then when people said we shouldn't lynch the HI they took their lynch off, then someone voted mist and they voted mist, and someone decided it was better to vote on someone (elkanah, I believe), and that's what turtle did. At the end of d1, they also said something to the effect of I'm suspicious of ventyl, but not enough to change my vote. Seems very much like an elim trying to fit in with what everyone is doing. Of course, this could be because they are new, but that is what others said and it seems as if this was forgotten. A turtle lynch would give a very good amount of info, imo. I guess I wouldn't be opposed to an elk lynch as well.
Amanuensis he/him Posted October 30, 2020 Posted October 30, 2020 I'm going to join the vote on Turtle.
Illwei Posted October 30, 2020 Posted October 30, 2020 Hmm Not sure how I feel about this push on Turtle. The problem is the people I find suspicious might have good reasons not to kill them. Agh! aaaaaaaaaaaa.
Amanuensis he/him Posted October 30, 2020 Posted October 30, 2020 24 minutes ago, Illwei said: Hmm Not sure how I feel about this push on Turtle. The problem is the people I find suspicious might have good reasons not to kill them. Agh! aaaaaaaaaaaa. I personally find Turtle's aversion to voting for Elkanah on Day 1 as highly unusual, so in the interest of gathering information on both their alignments, it seems like the safest bet. I asked a lot of people in PMs last night who they would like to see get Mistborn'd, and Turtle occured frequently enough that I'm not sure their death can be productively avoided for much longer.
|TJ| he/him Posted October 30, 2020 Posted October 30, 2020 9 hours ago, Flyingbooks42 said: Does anybody who's more experienced have any tips on how to analyze people's posts to try to figure out their alignment? You can check Rae's post here. I think it has helpful hints to new players. 10 hours ago, Experience said: Says turtle is sus, but says will drop it because others did. Precede to change vote from turtle to ventyl. Sus. People shot me down, telling Turtle's is just new player behavior. I cannot lynch a player by myself, can I? xD Felt like my vote was worth some place else if we weren't going to lynch Turtle. 7 hours ago, Experience said: They were jumping all over the place, and I'll start with the mist lynching. They lynched them because they thought they could be the HI, then when people said we shouldn't lynch the HI they took their lynch off, then someone voted mist and they voted mist, and someone decided it was better to vote on someone (elkanah, I believe), and that's what turtle did. At the end of d1, they also said something to the effect of I'm suspicious of ventyl, but not enough to change my vote. Seems very much like an elim trying to fit in with what everyone is doing. Literally contains all the same reasons I've found suspicious about Turtle. I'm still suspicious of Turtle by the way, but she already has 3 votes and I'm a bit apprehensive about adding a 4th as I'm not completely sure about the voters. @eltruT, what are your suspicions?
Experience he/him Posted October 30, 2020 Posted October 30, 2020 (edited) 55 minutes ago, TJ Shade said: People shot me down, telling Turtle's is just new player behavior. I cannot lynch a player by myself, can I? xD Felt like my vote was worth some place else if we weren't going to lynch Turtle. Ya, I get that. And that's the only thing I find midly sus about what you did (at least in d1), so it's fine. EDIT: I have more analysis. If someone could post that would be nice... Edited October 30, 2020 by Experience
Straw he/him Posted October 30, 2020 Author Posted October 30, 2020 36 minutes ago, Experience said: Ya, I get that. And that's the only thing I find midly sus about what you did (at least in d1), so it's fine. EDIT: I have more analysis. If someone could post that would be nice... You can edit in analysis if it's in order to avoid double posting and you clearly mark it as an edit of your original post. See this bit from the general rules: Quote Fixing grammatical errors or adding more information so as to not double post is fine, but do not change the intent of your post.
Experience he/him Posted October 30, 2020 Posted October 30, 2020 13 minutes ago, Straw said: You can edit in analysis if it's in order to avoid double posting and you clearly mark it as an edit of your original post. See this bit from the general rules: Ya, I can edit it, but then some people won't see it. Thanks for posting. More analysis! Spoiler Straw: GM! Starting post! Well, ventyl died. That’s sad. NAI Turn over. Illwei: Still getting HI from them. NAI Reason for voting on mist is because they had NAI posts. NAI NAI Thinks that turtle is not elim, and mist might be. Elkanah: Nothing to help right here. Same read as before. Joke. NAI Condensation: Ya, I'm pretty sure you're village. NAI Village-ish Village feel, asking questions and gut feel. NAI Village feel. Gears: Dead. Does a vote analysis. There’s 30. Why? Reasons that turtle/shade are most likely an elim from the ventyl lynch. Ashbringer: Nothing. same read as last analysis. NAI Whysper: Village. Surprised that ventyl was lynched. (same) Thinks that elims didn’t try to move votes from elk to ventyl. I dunno. NAI? Slightish villagish. NAI Aman: neutral with slight possible elim lean. Suspicious of elk. Made PM with elk. Agrees with Whyspers second post. Shade: Ok, if we do end up killing turtle (which I think we should), and they flip elim. I dunno. I think our best bet would be either elk or shade. Hmmm. Defends elk a lot. Killing elk could get us some good info in this regard. NAI Mist: Same read as last time. Asks if someone wants PMs. Devo: I have no idea. You're too good of a player. Ack. I have no idea if what you’re saying is good or bad. Can’t get a read.
Shard of Reading he/him Posted October 30, 2020 Posted October 30, 2020 1 hour ago, TJ Shade said: People shot me down, telling Turtle's is just new player behavior. I cannot lynch a player by myself, can I? xD Felt like my vote was worth some place else if we weren't going to lynch Turtle. Personally I disagree with this assesment. Even if no one else thinks your vote is worth anything you should keep it where it is because that is what you believe. People shouldn't get you to change your vote because no one else is voting on them. Use what you believe over other's opinions. TJ shade, because from when I've played with you before you did not seem like someone who is indecisive.
Turtle they/them Posted October 30, 2020 Posted October 30, 2020 Hi. I'm awake again. Just a question for those lynching me: What if I'm village when you Lynch me? What information would it give?
+Whysper she/her Posted October 30, 2020 Posted October 30, 2020 (edited) On 10/29/2020 at 5:21 AM, Illwei said: That was not unexpected, to tell you the truth. I was hoping that the Elims would want to keep me alive, seeing as I've figured out who all the Hemalurgists are, but since they've tried to kill me... :(... that's dissappointing. Or disconserting. either one. Yeah, not unexpected. Perhaps they don't think there's much of a chance of getting info from you or not worth the effort. So they figure they'll go for taking out someone they believe is a Hemalurgist. On 10/29/2020 at 5:32 AM, Elkanah said: Wow. I really thought they would go somewhere else after two people asked for elantrians to look after Illwei. If this was the case, then It is rather odd they didn't go for Condensation instead since she kind of gave herself away as likely Hemalurgist. This does make me suspicious that she's an Elim Hemalurgist... On 10/29/2020 at 5:44 AM, Lotus said: I was following a long a bit but not very closely so I'll have to either do some major backlogging or just pretend to! Welcome, Lotus! On 10/29/2020 at 8:58 AM, Ashbringer said: I thought my reason for canceling my vote on Turtle was relatively clear. I was mostly suspicious of them because of their suspicion of Condensation having no backing, and then Illwei supplied a fair reason for that suspicion (and why the backing wasn't shared). I was also mostly reading Elandra as village with a good defense, and Condensation was being... weird, but not Elim-y. I feel like an Elim would pay better attention to those type of things. So I didn't really want any of the candidates dead, and there wasn't much I could do to change it in the time I had. This sounds extremely hedgy. We are working on solving who the Elims are. We have to make choices. If you don't make a choice, you are basically saying that you don't care who dies. If you don't like either of the main wagons, at least vote for the person you think has the most chance of being Elim, even if that chance isn't much higher than for others. Villagers have to take a stand and choose. Elims want to hedge so they aren't held accountable for dying Villagers. On 10/29/2020 at 7:34 AM, Lord_Silberfarben said: i never contribute till cycle 5 or so I went back and looked at some of Silb's games and yeah, his lack of posts is NAI. We can look at him again later. On 10/29/2020 at 11:41 AM, Araris Valerian said: One of the reasons it is important to vote is that the eliminators can’t actually be “suspicious” of anyone. They know who all the villagers are (or all but one in this game). So players who are reluctant to vote could either be lost, or they could just be elims that know all the current lynch options are actually villagers. (This is related to why I’m voting for Ashbringer. Finding nobody suspicious is sort of suspicious.) Good point. And yeah, I'm suspicious of Ash for this as well. On 10/29/2020 at 11:43 AM, TJ Shade said: Also, why wouldn't the elims kill you if they knew you know the info about all Hemalurgists? Like would they hope that you'd give them the info? Why would they think that, if you're village? Of course they'd know you wouldn't tell it, so you they'd have no problem killing you. Things like this makes me paranoid about WGG. I still read you as village, but paranoid!village. You know, I hadn't thought about this, but you are right that this is a possibility. At my homesite FoL, they don't give the results of a save in the thread or even in the class cards, so there's only everyone's word on what action they did overnight. But with these results shown in the thread, I can see how they might be used by Elims in a tricky way. BTW, I know you explained the meaning of WGG, but do you know what the actual acronym stands for? I'm just curious. 23 hours ago, Amanuensis said: I hesitate to think of my comments about Mist to be a defense. I genuinely don't believe the post she made about roles indicates her alignment, and that lynching her for it will discourage villagers from making whatever small contributions they can. If you have other reasons to suspect Mist, I would love to hear them because I have no compunctions about lynching them. I assume this is referring to Mist making info-only posts. I agree with you that we shouldn't lynch people just for this reasoning. This can be used along with other reasoning, but I think Villagers also make such posts. Now, if these are the only types of posts someone makes and they don't make reads or try to solve, then it would raise a red flag. 23 hours ago, Vapor said: Uh... I don't think Connie's a villager. I don't really have much suspicion of anybody yet. 22 hours ago, Shard of Reading said: I don't really have much of a suspect list. I'm finding it really hard to find people suspicious. I guess that people I trust are Amanaus, Windrunner supreme, (Though can you please actually vote for someone besides Experince) Vapor, Wind, and honestly just about everyone who is playing the game. I know it's not much and there are some people I'm on the fence about. Ahhh, a couple more people without much for reads. Though at least Vapor gives an Elim read on Connie. But Reading is "finding it really hard to find people suspicious." This raises a severe red flag. It should be more like there's too many people that have suspicious aspects that you can't decide what is more suspicious. Elims would have difficulty finding anyone suspicious because they know all the Villagers are innocent and they don't want to implicate their partners. Reading Okay, going to stop here for now on commenting. I keep getting pulled away to other things and will never get fully done. And this has already become quite long. Haha. EDIT: Added below 22 hours ago, Illwei said: How can you not have any suspicions? Can you at least talk about the people who you are on the fence about? I would think that you'd either have atleast a slight elim read on Elk, me, turtle, connie, etc. 21 hours ago, TJ Shade said: Bahh, why is everyone doing this? How am I supposed to increase my suspect pool if you guys aren't stating your suspects? Ahhh good, others are finding it annoying/suspicious that people aren't stating suspicions. Edited October 30, 2020 by Whysper Added couple more quotes and comment 1
+Whysper she/her Posted October 30, 2020 Posted October 30, 2020 13 hours ago, Ashbringer said: Village: Illwei, TJ Shade Mild Village: Aman, Whysper, Mist Very Mild Village (Odd-but-good): Elkanah, Araris, Devotary Null: Silber, Lotus, Wind, Windrunner Supreme (for activity); Vapor, Reading, Danex (nothing's stuck out), Turtle (for other reasons). Will look at the last 4 more. Very Mild Elim (Odd-and-not-good): Condensation, Books Mild Elim: NA Elim: NA Thanks for posting this, Ash. Good to see where you stand. Actually this list is fairly close to my own. I think I'd swap Elk and Mist. I've recently come to the conclusion that Elk is probably Villager. His comment about the night kill on Gears got me thinking. Even if Elk was an Elim and agreed to the night kill on Gears for game reasons, he wouldn't have pointed out the cruelty of not giving Gears a chance to continue playing the game. In the nulls, I would put Turtle into Mild Elim or Elim. Reading into Very Mild Elim. Condensation maybe into Mild Elim. 13 hours ago, Experience said: Here is the reason I haven't posted very much. I'm going through and doing a post by post analysis of everything. I just finished day 1, so here it is folks Oh, thank you for your list as well. I agree with you on Turtle. I'm not sure why you have Reading so high as Villager, though. I've recently thought he had least seems suspicious. 13 hours ago, Flyingbooks42 said: Does anybody who's more experienced have any tips on how to analyze people's posts to try to figure out their alignment? Oh, I hope I can come back to this sometime and give a bit of an answer. I have some rough notes in a document that I've been compiling for my own purposes. I've been considering ways to better analyze people in a systematic way. 12 hours ago, Araris Valerian said: The best way to be less suspicious is to be involved in lynching an elim. And the best way to do that is to be involved in all the lynches. I like how you put this. Good advice. 9 hours ago, Amanuensis said: I'm going to join the vote on Turtle. 3 hours ago, TJ Shade said: I'm still suspicious of Turtle by the way, but she already has 3 votes and I'm a bit apprehensive about adding a 4th as I'm not completely sure about the voters. Okay, I see a Turtle vote is picking up. I'm going to keep my vote on Reading as a possible 2nd wagon. I won't be around at EoD and so probably can't shift my vote, but just know that I'm okay with either Turtle or Reading as the lynch. 1 hour ago, Shard of Reading said: Personally I disagree with this assesment. Even if no one else thinks your vote is worth anything you should keep it where it is because that is what you believe. People shouldn't get you to change your vote because no one else is voting on them. Use what you believe over other's opinions. TJ shade, because from when I've played with you before you did not seem like someone who is indecisive. I disagree with you, Reading. I don't think Shade is saying that he doesn't think people find his vote worth anything. He is saying that he wants to put his vote to use where it might count, like choosing one of the main wagons. And I agree with this. Sometimes there's not enough momentum on the person you think the most likely Elim, so you need to choose among the main wagons for the most likely Elim there. You wait another day for your highest Elim read. Your interpretation of this as being indecisive and enough to vote on Shade just adds one more mark against you in my eyes.
Araris Valerian he/him Posted October 30, 2020 Posted October 30, 2020 I'm going to switch my vote from Ash to Reading. While I still have some suspicion of Ash, he did give some suspicions of his own and has placed a vote this cycle, which is about as much as I can hope for I suppose. Reading is the player I mentioned to Aman as a good Mistborn target last night, largely due to the doc comment made earlier, and his vote on Illwei early in C2. I didn't think that Reading would be a lynch candidate, which was another reason I thought he would be a good Mistborn target. I do think that he makes a fine counterlynch to the Turtle wagon, which I don't fully understand the reasoning behind (Aman has evidence supporting it as inevitable, although I don't think I would ever vote on someone for that reason).
|TJ| he/him Posted October 30, 2020 Posted October 30, 2020 1 hour ago, Experience said: Hmmm. Defends elk a lot. Killing elk could get us some good info in this regard. My opinion has since changed as stated in my previous post (not sure if you're all caught up). Even though Elk explained it, his vote shift at the end of last cycle is suspicious. 1 hour ago, Shard of Reading said: Personally I disagree with this assesment. Even if no one else thinks your vote is worth anything you should keep it where it is because that is what you believe. People shouldn't get you to change your vote because no one else is voting on them. Use what you believe over other's opinions. TJ shade, because from when I've played with you before you did not seem like someone who is indecisive. At the same time, it's important to acknowledge that you are not right always, and other players might have better reads than you at the moment. I've tunneled and kept my opinion over others before and regretted it later many a times. A good balance is very much required. It's not just that people didn't vote for my target, it's they vehemently disagreed with it, so there was no chance a vote on Turtle was picking up. So I wouldn't term it being indecisive. Besides, why is indecisiveness an elim indicative? Villagers are more prone to be in dilemma about their choice to vote than elims in my opinion. Elims can just choose a villager to vote on and not do a thing. It's the villagers who have to react to new information and make changes. 1 hour ago, Whysper said: BTW, I know you explained the meaning of WGG, but do you know what the actual acronym stands for? I'm just curious. It stands for Wounded Gazelle Gambit. 13 minutes ago, Whysper said: Your interpretation of this as being indecisive and enough to vote on Shade just adds one more mark against you in my eyes. What Whysper said.
Ashbringer he/him Posted October 30, 2020 Posted October 30, 2020 13 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said: I'm going to switch my vote from Ash to Reading. While I still have some suspicion of Ash, he did give some suspicions of his own and has placed a vote this cycle, which is about as much as I can hope for I suppose. Er... I haven’t voted yet. I don’t think. I’ll stick a vote on Turtle for now, for stated reasons, a bad gut feeling about their Ventyl vote, and not really saying anything as of late, for defense or reads or otherwise. I’ll take a look at Reading soon. 2 hours ago, eltruT said: Hi. I'm awake again. Just a question for those lynching me: What if I'm village when you Lynch me? What information would it give? This also just feels... weird. “What if?” It tells us to keep looking at the main lynch pushers and any bandwagon-y votes. It also tells us a bit more about what you’ve previously posted - if you flip Village, we know you’ve probably told the truth. And you’ve been interacting with a lot of people, notably Condensation.
Condensation she/her Posted October 30, 2020 Posted October 30, 2020 14 hours ago, Experience said: Well, here I am. Here is the reason I haven't posted very much. I'm going through and doing a post by post analysis of everything. I just finished day 1, so here it is folks! I'm voting on turtle. Reasons below. Note: I have only read the first day, so I don't have all information. If I'm missing something big let me know. I do know who has died though. Spoilered for extreme longness. Reveal hidden contents Vapor: Slight Village, not much to go off of. NAI about activity NAI NAI Poke on Mist Takes vote off Mist NAI Thinks mist vote is odd. Slight suspicion of turtle. Condensation: Village feel, but they are new, so I'm open to changing if people think that is completely off. NAI new-player help NAI NAI about there being at least one traitor Pokes Danex Takes away vote on Danex NAI NAI NAI NAI Claims loyal. NAI NAI A lot of conversation with wind, makes a lot of NAI for both. NAI Claims not-elim. NAI NAI NAI NAI RP NAI Offers to summon silber every so often. Village thing to do. Asks what pocketing is. Village. NAI NAI NAI. RP. NAI Doesn’t know who to vote for. Slightly-village, or new player. Not sure which. NAI NAI NAI Slight-maybe-not really sus on turtle. Slightish village. NAI Talk about hemalurgist. Slightish village. NAI NAI Takes away vote on danex(again) Villagery questions NAI NAI Slight-maybe-not-sus about mist. Village vibe. NAI Elkanah: Slight Elim Poke on Supreme NAI Says people shouldn’t reveal roles. At least not in thread. Takes vote off of Supreme. Hmmmm. I dunno. Maybe-possibly-slight-ish-elim-vibes. Back to neutral feel. Thinks that turtle is bad. And if turtle is bad connie is as well. Says sus on turtle, but doesn’t vote on them. Thinks Whysper is village. Mist: Not sure. Neutral with slightish elim lean. Role analysis -- NAI, elim count analysis says probably 4 or 5. Most very likely NAI NAI Votes on turtle for poking after already done 2 posts. NAI reads on Ash, Elk, and Danex. RP RP RP RP Only village hemalurgist need to die for HI thing to happen. RP. RP RP Quotes rule about HI. NAI NAI NAI NAI Takes vote off of turtle because jumping around is villagery(?) NAI NAI Danex: Ummm.... ya. Nothing. NAI new-player help NAI Turtle: ELIM! I really have no idea why they are still alive!? Were they just forgotten? Pokes mist probably NAI, though there was already a poke on mist at this time Most likely NAI about their first game non-elim. Takes vote off of mist. NAI joke NAI Votes on mist because HI wants to accuse a bunch of people. Slight sus because of this. Thinks mist is HI. Claims regular loyal. Says is getting bad vibes from mist. Possible illwei-turtle elim? NAI NAI talk about HI. Pokes reading without voting. Takes vote off of Mist. NAI NAI NAI, though am starting to get slight elim gut read from them. NAI, but back to neutral read. NAI NAI Shouldn’t kill HI. Asks for vote count. NAI Votes mist based on gut, and possible reasons. NAI Says they are village because they claimed. Soooo much elim vibes right there. NAI NAI NAI Asks for reasoning that Aman voted elk instead of mist. Possible Turtle/Mist elim team. Agrees on vote on elk, but not enough to switch from mist. NAI Takes vote off of mist again. ALARM BELLS. How are you not lynched yet?! Ya… Really feels like an elim trying to survive really badly. Ahhhh. New player. That’s why you aren’t dead yet. Possible (accidental?) pocketing of connie? NAI Slightish not really elim because jokes about everyone stopping posting so they can sleep. I dunno. Probably nothing. NAI Vote count. Thinks that ventyl is weird, but doesn’t do anything about it. Ack. I’m starting to think maybe not elim? I dunno. Still strongest elim read so far though. Votes on Ventyl. ???? Ashbringer: Ya... I got nothing. NAI about inactivity RP NAI NAI Gears: Dead. Role analysis. Pretty NAI, though if there is an elim surgbinder very slightish suspicion. RP NAI asking for suspicions of people. RP. Illwei: I'm 99.9999999% sure your the HI Illwei. Especially because you survived that attack, though I don't know what happened could be a WGG, though not very likely. Votes and unvotes Matrim. Somewhat same suspicions of turtle as mist. Votes on gears for not claiming elim. Takes vote off of gears because they said stuff in RP. Votes on mist. Asks turtle why they voted on mist. Sus if mist is elim. Tells people not to claim, thinks connie and mist might be elim. If mist is elim, even more likely illwei is elim. Thinks HI is in hemalurgist doc. Possibly HI. Elims want HI to die. Ya… feeling HI here. More talk about hemalurgist doc. I think HI. Village-ish feel on turtle. Doesn’t like poke votes. “Just” read that HI isn’t in doc. HI, or maybe elim spreading chaos? More talk about HI. Getting not-village vibes from this post. NAI NAI Says that Gears vote was a complete joke. NAI Even MORE talk about HI. NAI Talk about HI. Would like to beat the elims to finding the HI. (How does that work? If they are attacked, everyone sees them survive…) Doesn’t want HI to die. I wonder why? Tags me. Not-village vibes. NAI Gets Experience reference. NAI. NAI Suspicion on Elk. NAI Gives reads on everyone. Not going to put everything. Heres the link if you want to see it. LINK It’s the second last post on that page. But it has only null reads so not that helpful… NAI Votes Elkanah because… they were using a spreadsheet? Thinks whysper is village. Takes vote off elkanah and puts on mist. Reasoning why Mist is sus-ish. Points out that ventyls vote makes no sense if they think elk is HI. Quotes a bunch of mists/turtles/elks posts/votes. Changes vote from mist to ventyl. Tags everyone (I think it’s everyone) Quotes post that shows why they think ventyl is sus. NAI NAI Doesn’t like how ventyl is going for HI. I wonder why? NAI Flyingbrooks: Nothing NAI new post Wind: Nothing NAI NAI NAI NAI claim about being a windrunner NAI question about RP RP RP RP RP RP RP RP Whysper: Strongest Village Read. NAI Slightish-not-really village post about poke votes. Brings up that HI is most likely not hemalurgist, because then they couldn’t die. Village feel on silber. NAI NAI NAI NAI NAI Thinks should attack HI early on. Says that elims should be first priority. Village read. Gives info that hurts elim a bit too much to be elim imo. Points out that HI becomes jester when they can die. Ya. I’m 90% sure they are village based on everything so far. More village vibes. Votes on Elkanah. More reasoning on vote for elkanah. Even more reasoning for voting Elk. Slight elim feel on turtle? More village vibes. NAI Ventyl: Dead RP. Pokes Devo. NAI Activity stuff. NAI help. NAI Kind of wants to vote on Elk, but is waiting for devo to respond to his earlier vote. Takes vote off of devo. Thinks elk is HI so votes on them. Thinks turtle might be elim. RP. Devo: Slight villagish RP. Doesn’t think HI is in hemalurgist doc. Most likely not HI. More about not thinking HI should be attacked. Neutral vibes. RP Vote count Thinks ventyl and elk are sus, votes ventyl. Araris: Slight Villageish. I dunno though... Gives vote count. Votes on Illwei b/c of vote on gears. Slight village read on turtle. RP. Thinks that Shade probably isn’t elim. Doesn’t think we can/should try to find HI through lynch. That actually claiming vanilla village just helps elims more. (aimed at turtle) Votes on elkanah. Takes vote off illwei. Straw: GM Confirms that HI doesn’t have access to doc unless they are hemalurgist. (Just realized that straw is the GM lol) Vote count. Another Vote count. Thanks. Turn over! Silber: Nothing NAI Shade: Slight elim because of the last post. NAI Thinks there is a possible Mist/Vapor elim team. NAI talk about HI Says shouldn’t vote on HI. Village read on Illwei, danex, gut elim on devo. Votes on Mist. Doesn’t want to vote on HI. NAI Suspicions on turtle. Votes turtle and not mist. We might want to check everyone who switched from mist to turtle. Says turtle is sus, but says will drop it because others did. Precede to change vote from turtle to ventyl. Sus. Supreme: Well... I dunno. Slight elim no really? NAI Votes on me. Elim. Matrim: Other GM! NAI. Wait. He’s running this game lol. Gives vote count. Thank you. Amanuensis: I honestly have no idea. I've never played a game with them. NAI Votes on Elkanah. Gives Vote count. Doesn’t like how many votes are on mist. NAI Thinks mist is not necessarily bad. Thinks turtle and elk are suspicious. Reading: Village. I think second after Whysper. Thinks Connie is village. NAI until one of them two die. NAI Don’t want to kill HI, because goes to lylo Thinks there is at least 1 elim hemalurgist. And more than 2 hemalurgists in all. NAI NAI about hemalurgist doc. Gut village on turtle. Doesn’t understand votes on elk. Would rather not vote than vote off of what others are saying. Slight village feel. Elandera: Dead NAI Doesn’t like votes on both mist and elk I dunno. Not NAI, but I can’t get a read out of it. Thinks mist is not a good vote option, is defending it. EDIT: Wow. That's long. Also, Illwei, Turtle, and Connie have over a page in google docs worth of my analysis. I... agree with the Turtle part. I am also slightly overwhelmed by this (and QF48). I think I'll jump on the eltruT bandwagon for now.
Turtle they/them Posted October 30, 2020 Posted October 30, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, eltruT said: Just a question for those lynching me: What if I'm village when you Lynch me? What information would it give? Gonna quote myself (Guys you probably don't want to kill me). Edit: My suspicions right now are Reading and Condensation, but I don't know if my vote would even matter. Edited October 30, 2020 by eltruT
+Whysper she/her Posted October 30, 2020 Posted October 30, 2020 50 minutes ago, TJ Shade said: Besides, why is indecisiveness an elim indicative? Villagers are more prone to be in dilemma about their choice to vote than elims in my opinion. Elims can just choose a villager to vote on and not do a thing. It's the villagers who have to react to new information and make changes. While it's true that in actuality Elim shouldn't be indecisiveness since they know exactly who is a Villager, it's just that Elim often imitate being an indecisive Villager. They don't want to be held accountable for flipping a Villager. So yeah, it can be hard to read someone's alignment on indecisiveness alone, especially if they are newer. I guess you have to look at the reasoning they give for the indecisiveness and whether they've made other clearer choices. 54 minutes ago, TJ Shade said: It stands for Wounded Gazelle Gambit. Ahhh, thanks for clarifying this. And I guess that's actually a more general strategy beyond just Forum Mafia. I see that votes are continuing to build up on Turtle. This would be a good lynch if it happens, but I do get the feeling that Elims have been hopping onto the wagon for Villager credit.
Araris Valerian he/him Posted October 30, 2020 Posted October 30, 2020 1 minute ago, eltruT said: Gonna quote myself (Guys you probably don't want to kill me). If it's inevitable that you are going to die, there are a couple of things you can do to make the game more enjoyable. First, you can still come up with a list of players you suspect. Then if you are flipped village, we will know that your list was honest (if not necessarily correct), and that can give us some information. Alternatively, if you are an eliminator, you can troll everyone. You could also post a reads list as an elim, but the chances of it actually helping your team aren't as great. My point is, if you stick around in SE, you are going to get lynched as an innocent a lot, and most of the time you won't be able to convince other people of your innocence except by dying (I mean, elim!Turtle could ask the same question). So it's a good idea to prepare yourself to do more than say "I'm a bad lynch option". Another thing you can do is come up with a convincing argument that someone else is a better lynch target than yourself. But that can be hard to do as a newer player, and there's only 5 hours left in the cycle.
Turtle they/them Posted October 30, 2020 Posted October 30, 2020 11 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said: If it's inevitable that you are going to die, there are a couple of things you can do to make the game more enjoyable. First, you can still come up with a list of players you suspect. Then if you are flipped village, we will know that your list was honest (if not necessarily correct), and that can give us some information. Alternatively, if you are an eliminator, you can troll everyone. You could also post a reads list as an elim, but the chances of it actually helping your team aren't as great. My point is, if you stick around in SE, you are going to get lynched as an innocent a lot, and most of the time you won't be able to convince other people of your innocence except by dying (I mean, elim!Turtle could ask the same question). So it's a good idea to prepare yourself to do more than say "I'm a bad lynch option". Another thing you can do is come up with a convincing argument that someone else is a better lynch target than yourself. But that can be hard to do as a newer player, and there's only 5 hours left in the cycle. Welp. Here we go. I've already claimed to multiple people, but I will say that I am a Loyal Regular Hemalurgist (H1, though it doesn't matter to people who understand), and so killing me is probably a bad idea. I suppose if I'm lynched you guys will know that and if not I will have a night to PM people and talk to people on the doc. Yes, I could just be a elim hemalurgist, but I actually think I know who the two of those are (We think one or two slim hemalurgists to the 6 of us in all). So there. I won'tbe here for about an hour in which time you guys can talk about wether or not I'm lying, so goodbye until an hour.
Ashbringer he/him Posted October 30, 2020 Posted October 30, 2020 9 minutes ago, eltruT said: Welp. Here we go. I've already claimed to multiple people, but I will say that I am a Loyal Regular Hemalurgist (H1, though it doesn't matter to people who understand), and so killing me is probably a bad idea. I suppose if I'm lynched you guys will know that and if not I will have a night to PM people and talk to people on the doc. Yes, I could just be a elim hemalurgist, but I actually think I know who the two of those are (We think one or two slim hemalurgists to the 6 of us in all). So there. I won'tbe here for about an hour in which time you guys can talk about wether or not I'm lying, so goodbye until an hour. ... oh. Well then. Can someone who Turtle's claimed to (outside the Hemalurgist doc... or at least say it was outside the Hemalurgist doc) confirm this? I'd like to have a bit of insurance before I take Turtle's word for it, because it's... not as much a defense and more a don't-kill-me-or-you-will-regret. And it seems to conflict with Aman's claim of finding her as a probable Mistborn target. In other news, I suddenly have much more time to devote to this game...
Condensation she/her Posted October 30, 2020 Posted October 30, 2020 Claimed to is told me that she's a Loyal Regular Hemalurgist, right? She told me, but I don't... know if it's true.
Illwei Posted October 30, 2020 Posted October 30, 2020 31 minutes ago, Ashbringer said: Can someone who Turtle's claimed to Turtle was my N1 Hemalurgist contact. She is either a Hemalurgist or an Elim (yeah, Elim!Hemalurgist would would too) because what she told me checks out with the other people's info. I PMd her N1 based off of these posts: Quote Also, I realize I don’t have any way to clear myself, so I’m going to do something I might not want to do. I am a loyal regular. What a boring role. If you have a role that might make you target to the Elias, such as hemalurgist, don’t claim it. I claimed because my role doesn’t really mean anything. Quote Also, villagers if you don't have a role play like a hemalurgist. We don't want the elims to find the real hemalurgists, so if you can distract them from killing a real hemalurgist that's good. Quote I probably shouldn't have done that anyways, as pretending to be a hemalurgist would have probably been more productive There were more, but this felt entirely like playing it up a bit too much. They also give me village vibes. Turtle is kind of scaring me though: She claimed immediately, thought I was a Hemalurgist too, and then told me that she wouldn't share doc specifics because I wasn't trustworthy. These are all incredible contradictory, because: - If I was an Elim I would have access to doc specifics through the Elim!Hemalurgist - If I was a Hemalurgist I would have access to doc specifics through...well, being on the doc - If you don't trust me enough to give me info, why claim to me? What I assumed through this was that Turtle might be an Elim: - Doesn't give me doc specifics because they don't want me to find out who the other Hemalurgists are for some reason - Claims to me because it can be used as protection, and doesn't have to worry about it. Things happened yesterday in thread that were less than Ideal, so the situation was definitely not as controlled as I could have tried to make it. Still I am Hesitant to vote on Turtle. Connie is looking a lot more suspicious to me right now. of course, not much time...
Araris Valerian he/him Posted October 30, 2020 Posted October 30, 2020 46 minutes ago, Ashbringer said: And it seems to conflict with Aman's claim of finding her as a probable Mistborn target. What do you mean by this? On the topic of Turtle's claim, I see 3 possibilities. If Turtle is village, then she is almost certainly a Hemalurgist. If Turtle is elim, she probably still is a Hemalurgist, but the third option is that she could be fake-claiming in order to survive. I feel like the Hemalurgist doc would make such a lie hard to maintain, however. If I was currently voting for Turtle, I don't think I'd move off because of the claim. But I'll stand by my vote on Reading for now.
Illwei Posted October 30, 2020 Posted October 30, 2020 (edited) Right, forgot to include in my post the Turtle asked about 10 times over if I was the HI, then last night when I expressed suspicion of her, she completely shut down and didn't talk anymore, instead asking my opinion on the Elandera situation. Edited October 30, 2020 by Illwei Spelling
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