Quick Fix 45: To Set an Example

[+Lotus she/her]

1 minute ago, StrikerEZ said:

Basically, once a person is lynched or killed, flipping means we find out if they were a villager or an elim. So if someone says “you’re going to flip village” they mean “when you die, we’ll find out you were a villager.” Hope this helps.

Thanks.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

3 hours ago, Straw said:

The two villagers I am referring to are Pyro and Silber, since I'm talking about the Silber train.

Especially with mandatory voting, an elim has to appear to care about the results of the lynch between two villagers. Elim!TJ might not care whether village!Pyro or Silber get lynched, but he still has to support a plausible lynch. 

1 hour ago, Ashbringer said:

Pyro, on the other hand, has not defended himself after several requests. I can’t really see it, but I haven’t had the chance to see reads for a lot of things.

There's not really a great way to defend yourself from 'TJ started a bandwagon on someone other than me', but some of the other things people(Straw) have said are reasonable. I can see TJ moving the lynch to Sil with any alignment combination for TJ/Pyro, and I guess we'll see part of which is true. Elim/elim would have the most obvious reason to do so, but TJ/Fifth has equally strong reasons, elim!TJ benefits if village!Pyro later gets lynched, and village!TJ who dislikes the Fifth/Pyro wagons has no reason not to support another plausible lynch.

50 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

 Interestingly expresses that she does not believe Pyro is evil, but does not elaborate much on this. At the end of the cycle, breaks the tie for Silberfarben. Normally I would chalk these combined factors up to a reasonably good chance of a Devotary/Pyro team, but unfortunately Devotary tends to behave this way, especially the last-minute voting, regardless of alignment. I will take a closer look at her if Pyro flips evil, though. 

According to Orlok, the vote count was 6-5 when I voted for Sil. I did think the vote was tied when I voted though, so your point stands. You're right about voting late, as my vote is utterly meaningless at this point when it wouldn't have been had I gotten involved otherwise, but I don't think I can change this about myself. Let's at yet more votes to Pyro, and try to avoid immediate single or dual trains next cycle.

[|TJ| he/him]

Woke up too early to see that my wish to rage-lynch Pyro is coming true after all. I don't think I can be more reasonable in my defence than I've already been. Back to sleep.  

Pyro

Edit: There's something wrong with my codeblocks. 

Frozen Mint

Edited June 22, 2020 by TJ Shade

[Eternum he/him]

So, a few thoughts:
Gears and Mat asking for Straw's opinion feels odd. I think they may be taking his cue from last cycle and trying to promote discussion, but it gives me a bad gut feeling.

I don't like how many people with low activity we have. The rule about votes seems to be a bit counterproductive-- I noticed Shard of Reading just placed a vote on Pyro and dipped. Really doesn't help.

Fifth, the formatting on your reads post hurts my eyes and soul. Please. Just press enter

I want to say more, but I don't know how much I'll manage in the 4 minutes until rollover so I'm just gonna make a couple of big posts next cycle to sum up my thoughts about this one, if I can manage it.

[Orlok Tsubodai he/him]

This cycle is now over. Please refrain from posting until the next cycle is up.

[Orlok Tsubodai he/him]

Hey, uh this is Rae here. Crewleader Stink is out for the day, so he asked me to check in on you.

Oh. Is that a body? Wait, is that Pyromancer? Look, I know y’all had your disagreements, but that's no reason to kill him! That's the entire reason why we have a crewleader, so we can resolve disputes without killing people! This is, like, the second time you've tried to kill him over an argument. But you actually did it this time. Honestly, it's kind of hard to recognize the body. There’s… a lot of blood.

Wait a minute. Who’s that in the corner? Matrim? You’re saying someone murdered him in the middle of the night and stuck him with a spike right through the heart? Gives me the creeps just looking at it! Somebody sort out this mess soon, or else Stink will be forced to disband the crew. Remember, we’re here to steal stuff, not murder each other, and we can’t steal nothing if everybody’s dead.

---

Vote Count: 

The Young Pyromancer: 14 (Gears, Matrim's Dice, Ashbringer, Straw, Vapor, Shard of Reading, Mist, TJ Shade, The_Truthwatcher, The Young Pyromancer, Frozen Mint, Fifth Scholar, Devotary of Spontaneity, Lahilt)
TJ Shade: 4 (Eternum, MysticLotus, Ventyl, StrikerEZ)

The Young Pyromancer was lynched. They were a member of the Skaa Thieving Crew.
Matrim's Dice was killed. They were a member of the Skaa Thieving Crew.

GM Announcement: Votes on TJ Shade as "TJ" are incredibly difficult to see and count. If you intend to vote on TJ Shade, please vote on him as "TJ Shade". If further votes are made as "TJ" and I miss them, I reserve the right to absolve myself of blame and not correct the issue.

Player list:

Spoiler

1. Gears
2. Matrim's Dice - Rieldi - Skaa
3. Ashbringer
4. Straw
5. Vapor
6. Shard of Reading - Reading
7. Mist - Lumen
8. Lord_Silberfarben - Skaa
9. TJ Shade - Box
10. The_Truthwatcher
11. Eternum
12. MysticLotus - Feather
13. TheYoungPyromancer - Skaa
14. Experience - Drahs Xperience
15. Frozen Mint
16. Ventyl - Aaiden Etteax
17. Fifth Scholar - Al Funcoot
18. Devotary of Spontaneity - Caliex
19. Xinoehp512 - Pelran - Skaa
20. StrikerEZ - Varen Darland
21. Lahilt - Vilt Fayn Dangera
22. Sparkrunner - Roadwalker

 

[+Lotus she/her]

Alright, I'm putting my vote down immediately for TJ Shade

 

_________________________________________

When Feather came into the shop with a basket of clothes that some person had needed for some scam or another, she was disappointed to see that Pyromancer had been killed, getting blood all over that suit she had spent hours stitching! The least they could have done was take off that jacket before they started beating him up. 

If that wasn't bad enough, Mat was dead too. He had been one of the few people to keep her clothes in pristine condition, and she had even taught him how to sew up holes! At least he had the sense to carefully fold the jacket before being killed. If they were going to act like noblemen, they couldn't do it in those skas clothing, but at the rate they were going through her selection, she'd have to start putting them in dresses!

Feather dropped off the freshly laundered coats in their usual place, disappointed to see that a light ash fall had dusted one on the top. At least she had put Lady Amalia's dress at the bottom. She pulled it out with a sign of relief, seeing that it was still clean. She needed to stay in the hideout for a while because the crew leader had said he had needed her for something special, whatever that meant, but she needed to get the embroidery on this dress, because Lady Amalia had said that she needed it for one of the upcoming balls!

So, Feather settled down in the cleanest corner she could find and began to carefully embroider the hem with neat strokes.

Edited June 23, 2020 by MysticLotus
Because I skim read.

[Straw he/him]

16 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

GM Announcement: Votes on TJ Shade as "TJ" are incredibly difficult to see and count. If you intend to vote on TJ Shade, please vote on him as "TJ Shade". If further votes are made as "TJ" and I miss them, I reserve the right to absolve myself of blame and not correct the issue.

2 minutes ago, MysticLotus said:

Alright, I'm putting my vote down immediately for TJ

[+Lotus she/her]

6 minutes ago, Straw said:

In my defense, er...

I didn't see it.

[Gears]

This implies village!TJ, though do not let this blind you to his faults. The following is an analysis of people who voted on Pyro.

Gears: I thought Pyro's alignment would indicate TJ's alignment. Even though we lynched a villager, we at least pseudo-cleared someone.

Matrim's Dice: Goes along with the plan. Provides no reasoning as to why. I would have been suspicious of this, but they were just murdered, so...

Straw: Agrees with the plan. Being the one to suggest it, this makes sense. Doesn't like the emotional appeal angle Pyro appears to have been going for.

Vapor: Goes along with it with no reasoning. [No reasoning]

Shard of Reading: Goes along with it with no reasoning promising to reread the thread and never returned. [No reasoning]

The_Truthwatcher: Goes along with it with no reasoning. Mentions needing to go to sleep. Could be an elim, could be a sleepy villager.  [No reasoning]

Lahlit: Agrees with my demand for an explanation. Doesn't like the emotional appeal. [Repeating previous reasoning]

The Young Pyromancer: While he was indeed doomed, there was no need to be so self-defeating about it. 

Frozen Mint: Finds it suspicious that Pyro didn't try to defend himself. [Repeating previous reasoning]

Ashbringer: Doesn't see why Pyro is up for the lynch, but finds the lack of defense odd. Notes that my commandeering of the lynch as a new player is strange, though NAI. [Repeating previous reasoning].

Fifth Scholar: Notes Pyro's strange vote and subsequent retraction on C1, Pyro's chaotic approach, a lack of traction on the bandwagons against him, and a gut read. Does not agree with TJ's alignment depending on Pyro's.

Mist: Finds the self-vote suspicious. [Repeating previous reasoning]

Devotary of Spontaneity: Doesn't really see why Pyro is up for the lynch, but voting is mandatory and the Pyro lynch has so much traction that it doesn't matter. [Doesn't agree with the lynch]

TJ Shade: Did TJ ever support the Pyro lynch? IIRC, he just defended himself. Mentions wanting to rage-lynch Pyro for something in the LG. [Doesn't agree with the lynch (maybe, someone correct me if I'm wrong)]

The players who jumped on the Pyro lynch with little to no reasoning are mildly suspicious. These players are Vapor, Shard of Reading, and The_Truthwatcher, I'm actually feeling more and more suspicious of Vapor, what with the wishy-washy votes C1 and the minimal reasoning for this vote. Marginally less suspicious are the players who repeated previous reasoning. They could have agreed with it, or just wanted to hide under the analysis of others. These players include Lahlit, Frozen Mint, Ashbringer, and Mist.

@MysticLotus, could you explain your vote on TJ? 

 

[+Lotus she/her]

5 minutes ago, Gears said:

@MysticLotus, could you explain your vote on TJ? 

 

I just still find him off, even if pyro was a villager. I mean, I’ll probably change my vote later on, but I don’t see how clearing pyro is supposed to at least somewhat clear TJ. I also didn’t like how quickly it felt like they got on the Pyro party.

[Ashbringer he/him]

For that matter, can someone explain how Pyro flipping Village says anything about TJ? It just seemed to be taken as a given.

[+Lotus she/her]

3 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

For that matter, can someone explain how Pyro flipping Village says anything about TJ? It just seemed to be taken as a given.

Maybe, TJ is a elim, and the people saying he’s cleared are other elims, tricking us.

[Gears]

7 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

For that matter, can someone explain how Pyro flipping Village says anything about TJ? It just seemed to be taken as a given.

On C1, TJ swung the vote onto Silber. If he was an elim, protecting Pyro would make no sense. As such, he is probably a villager.

[Vapor she/her]

I'm not sure what to think. For one, TJ could be an elim because he was shifting blame onto others to distract us from him (at least from what I've seen), but he could be a villager because he protected Pyro.

I will do a read in about 1 1/2- 2 hours, but until then, don't expect much from me because I'm not sure about wifi.

[StrikerEZ he/him]

Okay, I’m not surprised about Pyro, but the choice to kill Mat is interesting. Someone smarter than me can probably figure that out.

First off, I’m pretty certain that there’s probably one elim who voted on TJ Shade, simply because I highly doubt that all of the elims would vote on one player who happens to be a villager. If I had to take a bet on who it is, I’d place a bet on it being Lotus, with maybe Ventyl being my second choice. Mostly by process of elimination, as it obviously can’t be me and I’ve been reading Eternum as slightly village so far.

Next, I’m going to assume we have five elims. Four seems like way too few for 22 players, and six seems like too much considering that the village doesn’t have any roles to balance out the fact that the elims can coordinate together.

Now, I’m going to make a bold statement. Assuming that none of the elims are inactive (hopefully having access to a doc would motivate players to vote to stay alive), we can rule out Experience and Sparkrunner as candidates for the other four elims. 

Now, this leaves us with four elims and 12 people to choose from. I think our best candidates for the elims are those who joined once it was fairly obvious that Pyro would be lynched (with probably one or maybe two before that point). So, those players are Gears, Ashbringer, Straw, Vapor, Shard of Reading, Mist, TJ Shade, The_Truthwatcher, Frozen Mint, Fifth Scholar, Devotary of Spontaneity, and Lahilt. Unfortunately, the list Orlok has posted isn't in the order of who voted on who, so I'm going to need to go through and figure that out real quick.

Here's the order of votes on Pyro: Gears, Matrim's Dice, Straw, Shard of Reading, Vapor, The Truthwatcher, Lahilt, Pyro, Frozen Mint, Ashbringer, Fifth Scholar, Mist, Devotary, and TJ Shade.

Okay, so I went ahead and italicized the votes that felt odd while I skimmed the thread looking for the votes on Pyro. And I'm realizing that every single one of those players has played less than 4 games, I believe. Hmm...I highly doubt that all of these inexperienced players are all elims together. I find Shard's and TJ's votes the most suspicious of those votes though.

Which leaves me with Gears, Straw, Lahilt, Frozen Mint, Fifth, and Devotary. I think Gears has shown a lot of promise so far and I like the way they've been analyzing things, so I'm going to trust them for now. Fifth has put a lot of effort into analyzing everything which...is, admittedly, NAI for him, so I guess I'll keep considering him. Straw was one of the more vocal supporters of lynching Pyro, so I'll keep him as a possibility. I think I'll take out Lahilt mostly because the reasoning for their vote seemed alright to me. I'll be leaving Frozen Mint in because of the timing of her vote, almost right after Pyro voted on himself. Could easily see that as an elim thinking something along the lines of, "well, if he's going to vote on himself, may as well join in." I'm going to take out Devotary as well because the timing of her votes seems just too obvious for an elim, always right near the end of a bandwagon (though it seems like that might be the only time she can get on to the shard as well, unless I'm misreading the things she's posted).

Okay, all that mess leaves me with...Straw, Frozen Mint, and Fifth. If I had to take a guess as to which of those players isn't an elim (assuming two of them must be), I'd take out Fifth. 

My best guess as of right now for the elim team is MysticLotus/Ventyl, TJ Shade, Shard of Reading, Straw, and Frozen Mint.

Edited June 23, 2020 by StrikerEZ

[+Lotus she/her]

Been trying to sort through Mat’s posts to see if their is any clue. None so far, but maybe someone who is more experienced could catch something.

[Vapor she/her]

I'm going to try a read again. Most of this is just from memory, so bear with me.

Most of the reads I have are uncertain, but I'm going to do the ones that are pretty certain.

TJ Shade: Most people think he's suspicious, and people are just finding excuses to prove him elim: such as killing Pyro. I know I'm slightly guilty of that too... On this one, I'm going to give him a low moderate elim.

Gears: He has done lots of helpful evaluations and participates plenty. For this, he gets a moderate villager.

Straw: He defenitely wanted to lynch Pyro, and was a pretty strong supporter of lynching him. Me, I kind of held back. He gets a low elim.

Frozen Mint: I'm not super  sure about this one. She may have been voting at that time anyway, but she joined the Pyro lynch train right after he did. She gets a very low elim.

Fifth: He has been very good at analyzing everyone, and that normally means village read. He gets low village.

@Mist I want more from you. For now I'm going to vote Mist until you post more. I know you can post more because you live with me. 

Edited June 23, 2020 by Vapor

[+Lotus she/her]

Vapor and Mist... nice combo. 

[Vapor she/her]

We also are with Condensation. Like the name combo?

[theTruthshaper]

3 hours ago, Gears said:

The_Truthwatcher: Goes along with it with no reasoning. Mentions needing to go to sleep. Could be an elim, could be a sleepy villager.  [No reasoning}

I lynched Pyro, because the "plan" you spoke of seemed to make sense. I would have preferred to vote TJ. But my parents told me to go to sleep (It was 12 in my time zone)

[Gears]

4 minutes ago, The_Truthwatcher said:

I lynched Pyro, because the "plan" you spoke of seemed to make sense. I would have preferred to vote TJ. But my parents told me to go to sleep (It was 12 in my time zone)

Okay, sleepy villager. Thank you for clarifying. 

[theTruthshaper]

So I read everything that happened in the last thread after I went away, but I can't figure out why was Pyro not defending himself. On reading their posts, it very much feels like they were an elim. Has anybody played with them before? Is this their normal playing style?

[+Lotus she/her]

32 minutes ago, Vapor said:

We also are with Condensation. Like the name combo?

I’m assuming you planned it?

[Vapor she/her]

Yes