Quick Fix 45: To Set an Example

[Straw]

5 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

With Silber not being evil, all that particularly means is that the late switch back to Pyro was not an attempt to save a teammate.

Why would it be true that if TJ is an elim Pyro also is, and vice versa? TJ's vote came very early in the Silber train when the vote was tied between Fifth and Pyro. There isn't a reason TJ would be defending one over the other, and at that point it's also plausible for a villager to have decided there was enough time left in the cycle to move off two wagons they thought were village.

What two villagers are you referring to here? Fifth and Pyro? Pyro and Silber?

People have been taking the fact that I said that for Eternum's case specifically, and ran away with it. I don't think they're necessarily both elims. I said that was an issue with Eternum's case, since I felt like his case implied that Pyro was an elim if TJ was.

The two villagers I am referring to are Pyro and Silber, since I'm talking about the Silber train.

[The Young Pyromancer]

Re TJ, It could be him caring who gets lynched among two villagers precisely FOR that reason. Or for a different one. Maybe he thinks I'm more likely to get lynched later than Silber is, so wants to leave me alive for future mislynch potential.

[Straw]

It's very odd to me how Pyro is still refusing to defend himself, despite saying he'd offer a defence later.

[The Young Pyromancer]

I was in an online chat thingy, commenting when I wasn't doing much. and now I am getting more food then continuing reading a book I had to pause abruptly for said online thingy. I will then defend myself, after that.

Also, do you mean odd as in 'hm, this seems elim-y', or odd as in 'I'm not sure why'd they do this as either alignment'?

[Vapor]

I'm confused...

[The Young Pyromancer]

What about?

[Straw]

2 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

I was in an online chat thingy, commenting when I wasn't doing much. and now I am getting more food then continuing reading a book I had to pause abruptly for said online thingy. I will then defend myself, after that.

Also, do you mean odd as in 'hm, this seems elim-y', or odd as in 'I'm not sure why'd they do this as either alignment'?

I think it's possibly elimy, since you seemed to be playing into the view that you were being faced with accusations you couldn't argue about.

[Vapor]

2 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

What about?

1. Everything is heppening at once.

2. People are being very wordy.

[Fifth Scholar]

Alright, high time I posted a reads list with some actual thoughts on people, since I’ve got a chunk of time to do analysis. 
1. Gears: First two posts lay out his strategy of random voting, and spreading votes across everyone—while infeasible and likely counterproductive, I doubt it’s alignment-indicative either way, and is more likely due to his unfamiliarity with how SE lends itself towards quick bandwagons. Encourages activity and not wanting elims to be able to hide, though these are generalisable statements which I’m not going to draw much trust from. After being poked, clarified his ideas in a way which seemed consistent with a villager. Posted a reads list with a lot of null assessments, which is perhaps understandable given it was only C1, but could also be a sign of unwillingness to commit to a particular stance. Very solid analysis on the brief wagon against me last cycle, and highlights Vapor and Pyro as votes who shouldn’t be allowed to go under the radar, which certainly happened for the latter. That post felt very village to me. Goes on in their next few posts to explain their paucity of village reads, saying the equivalent of “don’t trust anyone,” always a valuable sentiment in this game.  Defends Silber as village before the lynch, which actually makes me slightly paranoid that they had advance knowledge on their alignment simply because of the post’s timing, but they make solid points again in that post and their subsequent one analysing the wagon. Hedges a bit on TJ before committing to a defence of him and voting Pyro. The only thing I disagree with here is the statement of his that we should lynch TJ if Pyro is village—setting up either/ors like that are bad unless we have concrete evidence that one is evil and the other isn’t (say, they had contradicting claims about the result of an action), because the Elims can use that reasoning to get two villagers killed, or get a teammate trusted if two of their members are up for the lynch. Overall read: moderate village. Has been talking a lot of sense and making solid contributions, especially for a newer player. 
2. Matrim’s Dice (you need a nickname by the way, as that’s too long to type. Does Mat work? ): Has a lot of posts, so I’ll hit the highlights. Defends the worth of random poke voting after heavy condemnation from Straw & Co., including his own initial poke on Silber. Rightfully points out that the discussion on the merits of poke-voting was going nowhere AI fast, and has some good thoughts on the issue. Briefly votes Mint for their condemnation of Gears, which was one of the first votes with reasoning behind it, and retracts once Mint defends themselves. Follows Eternum’s stance on Pyro, helping solidify that bandwagon, and pops on later to say that Vapor “is likely new-playering” by switching their vote around a lot and defending themselves often, which is probably fair. I’ll note that frequent vote-switching isn’t really a problem as long as your reasons for doing so are legitimate, though; being caught in a tunnel is never a good thing, even if you’re right. Expresses apathy as to the lynch target C1, which makes me think Matrim/Pyro isn’t a likely team. Makes a few shorter posts in which they express increasing suspicion of Vapor. Implies I might be soft-cleared from Xino’s flip, which I’m not sure how I feel about—it could be an honest villager making an assumption, but it feels a bit like an attempt at a pocket. Votes on Ventyl and softly implicates TJ over the course of several posts before switching to him, while insisting he still suspects both. Then switches to Pyro. I’m finding that he’s generally hopping between votes more this cycle, which makes me a little suspicious that he’s willing to follow other voices while still blending in as a relatively vocal player. I also don’t completely understand their suspicion of TJ or Pyro from their posts. I’ll give him a null read with the qualification that he seemed a lot more village to me last cycle than this one. 
3. Ashbringer: Far lower activity than the previous two, attributing this to juggling this game with the LG (which is understandable). Refuses to commit a vote to the Silber/Pyro/Straw debate, then ties it towards the very end of the cycle by voting Pyro. I haven’t seen them around this cycle ( @Ashbringer ), and would like more analysis and input from them. For now, a slight elim read because they seem fairly content hovering below the radar. 
4. Straw: Has a lot of posts as well. The main opponent to random voting, making a string of initial posts about this, as well as a few questions poking holes in Gears’ first idea. Not going to rehash the whole C1 debate about random voting, but overall nothing Straw said in it seemed particularly AI, other than his insistence that discussion be created, which is a village sentiment even if it’s easily expressed. Gives an initial reads list which I don’t take too much issue with, then pokes some people in a follow-up post to give more elaboration on their stances, which is a good way to keep discussion going; another village read for that. I’m a little unhappy with the acrimonious tendencies which some of his statements lean towards; for instance, telling Pyro his idea was “horrible” before the switch onto him. It’s likely not AI—Straw tends to be blunt with his opinions regardless of alignment—but it does feel a little off in some instances. A few more posts of his which don’t express much beyond a suspicion of Vapor, who he switches his vote to while simultaneously asserting he’d rather not lynch them. This is probably the weirdest decision Straw made, as the vote isn’t useful to apply pressure if it’s explicitly not intended to kill, and all it could do was make the outcome Straw said he opposed (a D1 lynch on a new player) more likely. Slight elim read for this. Posts another reads list which mostly seemed to reflect the thread’s general consensus on most players, and given Straw’s vocality, I think it’s likely due to him shaping consensus on people rather than a case of him blindly following popular opinion. Moves on to pressure some people and consolidate a pool of lynch targets. Responds to Gears arguing in favour of village reads, which I again agree with. Starts the initial push which sent Silber toppling. I’d almost say they were trying to defend Pyro, except, well...  They’re currently pushing a Pyro lynch with the idea it’ll help clarify TJ’s alignment. I’m...not sold on this, especially since regardless of the result of the lynch, it doesn’t really clear or even heavily implicate TJ, and it’s working with the assumption Pyro is evil to begin with, which...yeah, he is suspicious, but that seems to be the only outcome he’s considering. Overall, Straw earns a mild village read simply for the volume of discussion he’s produced and encouraged, and to keep that discussion going I want him alive. I’m not necessarily in agreement with his reads, though. 
5. Vapor: A lot of shorter posts. Drops largely unexplained votes on myself, Straw, and Pyro, simply stating that he is suspicious each time without really elaborating further. While this is very suspect, it could just be that he’s newer and lost, as Mat pointed out, so I’m hesitant to condemn him too much for it. He’s mostly passive in response to pressure from Eternum and Straw, which makes me inclined to be sympathetic when viewing his first few posts. @Vapor, most of the suspicion on you seems to come from your lack of certainty, so don’t be afraid to speak your mind. Better to have your own “wrong” opinion than to just follow along with everyone else—that’s largely not much fun, and will get you suspected more quickly. Eventually does vote Silber and explains their reasoning, and posts a reads list towards the beginning of this cycle which is mostly inconclusive. I agree with Straw and Eternum that Vapor earns a very slight elim read, though I believe we should give him more of a chance to assert himself and express his own ideas, which it looks like he’s beginning to move towards; as such, I’d rather not lynch him this cycle. 
6. Shard of Reading: Did not vote C1, and has posted very little. Dropped a largely unexplained vote on Pyro before leaving again. For similar reasons as Ashbringer, a slight elim read, as they seem to be trying to escape notice. @Shard of Reading, could I get your thoughts on four players of your choice, as well as a bit more explanation for your vote on Pyro? 
7. Mist: Another lower-activity player. Agreed with Straw’s stance against random voting, then dropped a vote on Vapor for reasons left largely unexplained. Suspicious of Mat, made some projections on elim team size, and hasn’t posted since, including to vote this cycle. Unlike the other two, though, I don’t believe she’s intentionally trying to remain low-activity, as her posts have expressed fairly firm opinions. As such, a null read, and I hope she posts more. 
9. TJ Shade: A complicated case. Has come under quite a bit of fire, for reasons I don’t really understand, so I’m going to perform my own analysis. Takes a mostly neutral stance in the poke-voting controversy, with perhaps a slight bias towards Straw, and makes pretty good points even if they’re mostly NAI. Votes on Xino for a change in tactics, which I’m not a huge fan of—people should have the freedom to change their playstyles if they’d like to. Does note that Straw was perhaps reading people based on their agreement with him, which, even if not strictly true, was a good generalised observation which seemed like something a villager would pick up on. Rightfully mentions that my vote on Straw lacked reasoning, and is one of the first to pivot to Silberbarfen, which ends up resulting in that lynch. Defends Pyro’s actions and bandwagoning as NAI for him, which is perhaps a good point, though it’s not exactly productive either, and I disagree with his stance that eliminators seem less likely to bandwagon. Elaborates on this more in his next post and makes a good argument for Silber’s lynch, which has decent reasoning even if we know the outcome—it was mainly PoE from a list Straw made himself. Makes good points this cycle as well, noting that Ventyl’s post on Xino’s death was perhaps exaggerated, and that his role in starting the Silber lynch wasn’t necessarily a good reason to lynch him. I do agree at the very least that Mint and Eternum’s condemnations of him are slightly flawed. Votes Mint as the most likely elim on the Silber train. Does get a little defensive in response to Mat, and makes a few points I disagree with; namely, I think voting someone for defending a person you suspect (or attacking a person you trust) is valid, though it’s obviously not as good as other forms of evidence. Overall, though, I think TJ received a disproportionate amount of condemnation and responsed reasonably well, and as such give him a mild village read. He’s given some good points, and I think a lot of people are tunnelling on him, or voting him because they have nowhere else to go. 
10. Truthwatcher: Randomly votes on Silber, becoming the first person to do so. Clarified twice that he did so only to dodge the filter, and to avoid inactivity. Now that he seems to be a bit more active, he tried to incite discussion on why Xino was killed, which is slightly suspicious to me, as reading too far into elim kills can be a bad thing (especially on C1), and I don’t view it as a productive use of discussion unless we start to see patterns across multiple kills. Joined the Pyro bandwagon without much explanation. Elim read, probably my strongest amongst the lower-actives. Another case of someone who seems to be trying to slip below the radar, and has the most blatantly suspicious posts and voting patterns. 
 

Analysis on the next ten players coming, but I feel I owe the world a post, and I’m scared of this getting deleted. Vote will also come then. 

[Straw]

2 minutes ago, Vapor said:

1. Everything is heppening at once.

2. People are being very wordy.

What are your reads ATM?

[Vapor]

I'm not sure

 

I'm a she!!! Why does everybody keep calling me a he even after I've mentioned my gender multiple times! 

Sorry, got frustrated.

Edited June 22, 2020 by Vapor

[The Young Pyromancer]

3 minutes ago, Vapor said:

I'm not sure

Ask your teammates for advice. They should be able to help you.

[Vapor]

What teammates? You guys?

[The Young Pyromancer]

1 minute ago, Vapor said:

What teammates? You guys?

Seeing if I could trick you into slipping up

If you need help understanding something and don't want to clog up the thread, PM someone you trust and ask for clarification.

EDIT: Flame On!

Edited June 22, 2020 by The Young Pyromancer

[Straw]

Just now, The Young Pyromancer said:

Seeing if I could trick you into slipping up

If you need help understanding something and don't want to clog up the thread, PM someone you trust and ask for clarification.

EDIT: Flame On!

I think that if they want advice or help understanding something, they should ask in the thread instead of PMing. That way, we can see their thought process, and they'll have a wider range of responses.

[The Young Pyromancer]

Mhm, hence the 'not wanting to do it in-thread' qualifier.

Feeling a bit better about you from that response.

[Vapor]

5 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

Seeing if I could trick you into slipping up

If you need help understanding something and don't want to clog up the thread, PM someone you trust and ask for clarification.

EDIT: Flame On!

Slip up?

I'm feeling better about this game now.

Edited June 22, 2020 by Vapor

[Straw]

Just now, Vapor said:

Slip up?

Pyro was trying to get you to admit you have teammates you know, since only elims know who's on their team. Not a very helpful strategy IMO.

Does anyone have a vote count?

[The Young Pyromancer]

2 minutes ago, Straw said:

Pyro was trying to get you to admit you have teammates you know, since only elims know who's on their team. Not a very helpful strategy IMO.

True, but it was worth a try

[Frozen Mint]

5 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

Hmm? I suggested Lord Sil's lynch as an alternative to Pyro's lynch, whom you voted for by the way. Weird that you'd say I wasn't contributing in a real way when you voted for the player I suggested. It's also weird that in your previous analysis post, you gave me a mild village read saying I've been lying low but I'm less bandwagon-y and encouraged some discussion pertaining to Straw. What changed between the two posts? You claim I'm still lying low, but I've definitely been more active after your first analysis post as compared to before it. Reads can change obviously, but the reasoning you gave is odd and untrue. 

You're contributing but you haven't taken any strong stances, which makes it easy for you to change your stances without drawing attention to yourself.

4 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

As for my vote this cycle, Frozen Mint gave a rather flimsy reason for their vote on Silber. They just said between Pyro, Silber and Straw they find Silber most suspicious, which isn't much.

I don't think it was flimsy. I had mentioned that I had an elim read on Silber earlier in the thread and shared my reasons for it. I didn't have elim reads on Pyro and Straw.

4 hours ago, Vapor said:

Mint: Thinks Ventyl was too obvious, couldn't be elim. btw, I'm a she, not a he.

My bad! You'd think I'd be better about this considering how many times I've run into the same issue lol.

 

I'm getting more of a village vibe from Matrim's posts this round, but I find it really odd that he voted so quickly this round after I said he was suspicious for voting slowly on D1. It's almost like he was making a quick attempt to subvert my suspicions. His given explanation (that he saw something that stuck out to him earlier this round) is plausible but I have to say the whole thing is very coincidental.

I want to look more closely at Straw's posts. The paranoia's setting in and the absolute lack of suspicion toward a single player is kind of alarming. I don't have time now so I'll see when I get to it. I still have a village read on him so I'm not too antsy about it. That being said, I really don't like how much weight is being put on Straw's opinion. Matrim and Gears both took Straw's directions re: lynching TJ vs. Pyro. I would highly encourage us... not to do that. Even if you have a village read on a player, they are not confirmed. And in general, this sort of thing can also lead to less analysis in the thread overall.

I also really don't like Shard and Truthwatcher bandwagoning... But I also don't really like the plan to lynch Pyro so there's that.

Honestly, I don't find Pyro particularly suspicious. His vote on Fifth to mimic Straw was strange, but it doesn't make me think they're an elim. I'd think an elim would try more to justify their votes, not less. And there wasn't much else going on so I don't think it was deflection. My gut also says he's village.

I was already suspicious of TJ and honestly, his defenses make me more suspicious. There's a defensiveness about them. They give off the tone of someone who's been cornered.

 

I'm curious about the players who haven't really posted so far, but I'm okay with letting the inactivity filter take care of them. As for players who have posted but posted minimally, we'll see how things shape up in the next couple of days.

[Gears]

4 minutes ago, Straw said:

Does anyone have a vote count?

Pyro: 5 (Gears, Matrim's Dice, Straw, The_Truthwatcher, Vapor)

TJ Shade: 4 (Eternum, StrikerEZ, MysticLotus, Frozen Mint)

Tell me if this is wrong. @The Young Pyromancer, @TJ Shade, do you have any last minute defenses?

[The Young Pyromancer]

Yes. It's called TJ Shade. :)

[Ookla-son-son-Ventyl]

Alright, after catching up on everything that’s gone on in this thread since last night. TJ seems has a substantially more amount of suspicion than Lahilt. To be honest I was tinfoiling with that vote . Anyway, the main votes on Pyro and TJ both seem pretty good and in reality I don’t see what difference it would make depending on who we vote. We get the same information out of both, essentially. I’m placing my vote on TJ for now solely that they seem likely to have a higher chance of being elim than Pyro. This could change depending on how the rest of the cycle plays out.

[Gears]

7 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

Yes. It's called TJ Shade. 

Pyro, you have failed to defend your actions in a meaningful way. This only increases my suspicion of you. I request that anyone who has not voted on Pyro do so.

[Lahilt]

5 minutes ago, Gears said:

Pyro, you have failed to defend your actions in a meaningful way. This only increases my suspicion of you. I request that anyone who has not voted on Pyro do so.

I agree with this. I demand an explanation not a deflection Pyro

 and what I was ready to post before the last 2 votes on TJ: 

I am finding Pyro suspicious myself particularily the emotional appeal post they had last cycle. 

TJ from my observations almost always draws votes and suspicion for their heavy analysis. I do not find anything really incriminating on them yet. 

I am worried  about the players who are not posting anything very substantial because in a game without roles the best way to find Elims is by players posts.