Quick Fix 45: To Set an Example

[theTruthshaper]

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However, the lynch itself is really bugging me; first of all, because it’s attracted immediate support from other players I suspect (namely Truthwatcher),

@Fifth Scholar I did not want to want to vote Mint, while I was online she was a lynch target, but I did not trust Gears, who was pushing for her lynch. I thought this was pretty clear by the fact that I did not vote for her. How has it attracted my support?

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10. Truthwatcher: Randomly votes on Silber, becoming the first person to do so. Clarified twice that he did so only to dodge the filter, and to avoid inactivity. Now that he seems to be a bit more active, he tried to incite discussion on why Xino was killed, which is slightly suspicious to me, as reading too far into elim kills can be a bad thing (especially on C1), and I don’t view it as a productive use of discussion unless we start to see patterns across multiple kills. Joined the Pyro bandwagon without much explanation. Elim read, probably my strongest amongst the lower-actives. Another case of someone who seems to be trying to slip below the radar, and has the most blatantly suspicious posts and voting patterns. 

Hmm, I guess this is why you suspect me, I did not know that it would be bad to start a discussion on elim kills. I am a new player and I simply assumed that elim kills would probably give you some knowledge. I joined the Pyro bandwagon despite my reservations because this was merely the best option I had that time. I felt Gears' plan of lynching Pyro to gain information about TJ was solid. I am less active mainly because of the time difference. Rollover in my time zone is at around 5 in the morning, and most discussion occurs around then.

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I could go for a Truthwatcher vote as well. Their case on Gears has been very strange. They seem to be trying to throw suspicion onto Gears' reads by saying that they're manipulative and artificial, which I disagree with. I'm very confused as to why they voted on Sparkrunner rather than Gears if they're so suspicious of him.

@Straw My suspicion on Gears was merely a gut read. The arguments seemed artificial to me, but as I talked about it earlier this was merely me trying to explain my gut read. I did not vote for him because I felt that my gut read was unreliable especially since I was a new player.

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Also @The_Truthwatcher if you are indeed village, I think it's best if you vote on a suspicion rather than an inactive.

@Frozen Mint I had already posted that my only suspicion was Gears, and this one was basically a weak gut read. I did not vote for him because:

1. I was very unsure.
2. I did not want people to rally around my vote to lynch Gears.
3. I merely wanted someone to look into him more closely, I felt that he was getting a lot of village reads simply because he was very active

Edited June 24, 2020 by The_Truthwatcher
Grammer

[Ashbringer he/him]

Seven hours left in the cycle and we have three posts? Really?

LG66 is finally done, so I should be able to do more analysis posts once I get off mobile, but I’m a little busy IRL right now.

[theTruthshaper]

Is this game going to be completely inactive? Nobody has said anything and the cycle is almost over.

[StrikerEZ he/him]

Is no one else going to vote? It’s been 18+ hours since my post, and that’s literally the only vote so far. I am not confident in my reasoning skills to be comfortable being the only one who decides who gets lynched.

[Frozen Mint she/her]

Yeah, I don't know why it's so quiet. It's kind of frustrating. As far as lynching me goes, I have no idea how to defend myself when no one is pointing to what I've done that's suspicious. Striker and TJ are the only ones who've provided reasons and I've answered them both.

I'm also really hesitant to vote now since so many of my suspicions have proven to be wrong. I wanted to hear what other people have to say.

I would really prefer if we didn't have a quiet cycle with an influx of posts in the last hour.

[|TJ| he/him]

18 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

Also, the choice to kill Gears seems a bit enlightening to me. So far all of our killed players have been semi-active to pretty active. Could the elims possibly be inactive players? Maybe they’re also semi-active?

That.. is in direct contrast to the results we saw above, i.e. the two players who died for inactivity filter. More likely is the fact that they are letting the inactivity filter take care of inactive villagers. Hmm, the fact that you pointed it out makes it plausible for elim!you to point us in the wrong direction. 
But in case you're right, the player that would that mostly fit the description would be Mist. I really liked Vapor's call out "Why don't you post more? I know you could post more because you live with me." xD
Shard of Reading would be apt as well but they have posted only in one cycle so the filter should take care of them this cycle is they don't vote. 

I do not like how Fifth and Straw are basically commandeering the lynches. It makes it very difficult to lynch them if they are elim since a lot of new players seem to trust them. While they are doing a lot of villager-y things, there is still no proof why they should not be elims. 

I also think random voting should be NAI for a game with inactivity filter. Since the players feel compelled to vote because of the filter but also want their votes to matter. That's probably why there's so much bandwagoning in the game. 

Alright so that's 14 players. Remove me and we probably have 5 elims among 13. Time to put the players into piles:

Truthwatcher: Weird read on Gears, but not afraid to post about gut reads even if it makes them stand out. Votes for an inactive to avoid inactive filter. I feel this is better than a reason-less vote on the bandwagon as the way to defeat the filter. @The_Truthwatcher, can you post some reads now that Gears is dead?. Village.

Eternum: Made helpful reads to the village. Not heavily involved in the voting shenanigans. Feels genuinely convinced I'm elim. Their post last cycle in response to my response does not seem like an elim backing out of a mislynch. 

Striker: Hmm, his lynch train seemed almost due to his reasoning for voting on me, which I do find weird like they seem to want to find reasons to lynch me (like the post about he mentiond he was "super suspicious" about, and after Straw explained, he still kept vote on my because of my posts since that post.) This could be honest tunneling like they claimed it could be, but the tunnel appears a little too narrow. @StrikerEZ, do you have opinions on other players?

Frozen Mint: I'm even less convinced that she's elim after the Gears kill. So far everyone she suspected has turned up dead. She wanted to pressure xino in C1, had suspicion on Matrim in C2, and Gears by his association to me in C3, and all 3 were elim kills. I don't want exactly what this means, or if it means anything, but it's likely that she isn't elim. Feels Striker is village (because of his read on me, I suppose), but votes on him as self preservation, then changes to Ventyl. Feel like their reluctance to vote for me is more of an elim backtrack, but other points made in this post seems to cancel it out. @Frozen Mint, who is your prime suspect now?

Mystic Lotus: Went TJ-Ventyl-TJ-Ventyl. Immediately votes upon me, do not give a proper reason. Flips to Ventyl after the analysis post. Flips back for no reason other than to promote train on me (more likely to build a train off 2 votes), flips back to Ventyl on the offer from Fifth. Hmm, they seemed dead set on having me, well, dead. Likely elim, but cannot be sure. @MysticLotus, do you still want me dead? Can you give reads on some other people you want dead?

Mist: Likely a low lying elim. 

Vapor: I actually thought back since my last analysis which basically said "confusion genuine, it didn't look like they were getting help from teammate", but even so, Mist should have been able to give her some sort of idea to avoid such level of confusion. I now feel like it was orchestrated, the reply to the trap from Pyro "Teammates? You guys?" Hmmm, a bit too fake, me thinks. But again, I'm making this under the assumption that she had a certain amount of help from Mist before the game, so maybe this reasoning isn't valid. Unsure.

Lahilt: Their vote on Striker was reasonable. They seem fairly fine. Their activity count is low, but that's not an AI judging from the LG.

Ashbringer: I'll be waiting for the read post. So far, they haven't done any villager-y stuff. They did find Striker's vote odd as well, and my defence appropriate. They correctly thought Pyro flipping village wouldn't give an AI on me. Feels like he's being careful. 

Devotary: Gahh, it's so hard to get a read of her (hope the pronoun is correct?) posts. She's always posting stuff like "I can see elim!X voting elim!Y, but village!X would indicate less of elim!Y". Like she's always talking situational, and not taking a strong stance. She feels like the neutral 3rd party in a war waiting till the end to see the victor before joining them. @Devotary of Spontaneity, what are your reads on players' at the moment? I'm not sure if I've understood your posts correctly, so let me go back and read them to post again. 

Straw and Fifth Scholar: They are really giving off village vibes and everyone seems to trust them at this point, but I cannot help but feel like it's a "two pronged approach" from the elims. Straw seemed to favor Ventyl lynch (without actual voting ), but ended up voting for Striker. Fifth votes for Mint is reserved at how fast people took it up. He specifically brings up Truthwatcher (TW never voted for Mint). Straw supports TW lynch stating he's suspecting them for their reads on Gears (which I believe are genuine), and their find TW's vote on Sparkrunner confusing (when TW had clearly stated they did not want to affect the outcome of the lynch without knowing the situation since they wouldn't be around rollover). Straw wants to lynch Striker. Fifth is strongly against the idea. Fifth begins the shift towards Ventyl and it ends up being the same thing he was being so reserved of the Mint lynch - people taking it up too fast. 
The only thing is - Gears is a weird choice for the elim kill if that's the case, since they seem to ask a lot of opinions from Straw and Fifth. But the could precisely be the reason why they chose Gears. 
Can people discuss about this, and tell me if I'm being paranoid? I feel like I'm being paranoid since both have been largely helpful to the village. I feel like we should be wary about them though. So...

Village: Truthwatcher, Lahilt, Eternum
Unsure: Straw(leaning village), Fifth (leaning village), Devotary, Striker(leaning elim), Ashbringer, Vapor (leaning village), Frozen Mint (leaning village)
Elim: Mist, Mystic Lotus
?: Shard of Reading

Gonna vote for Mist here because they are not at all providing any info, and are lying low, but making sure to vote. 

Edited June 24, 2020 by TJ Shade

[+Lotus she/her]

13 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

@MysticLotus, do you still want me dead? Can you give reads on some other people you want dead

Honestly, I have no clue. I still think you're an Elim, but it's been like three rounds of people suspecting you but that never came to anything. And yes, I did flip a lot last round,

I might take a no-vote this round, because I just have no clue. It's so much easier to play this type of game in person when you can analyze people's body language and tone of voice, but on the forums it would be so easy for someone to carefully craft words. In some ways I feel like getting out my DnD dice set might be a better way to choose than trying to figure out who might be playing us.

[Vapor she/her]

I'm not really sure who to vote. For now, I'm suspicious of Mist. And I didn't get much help before it started. I'm suspicious of Mist because she is voting, but that's it. She isn't doing much.

Edited June 24, 2020 by Vapor

[StrikerEZ he/him]

49 minutes ago, MysticLotus said:

I might take a no-vote this round, because I just have no clue. It's so much easier to play this type of game in person when you can analyze people's body language and tone of voice, but on the forums it would be so easy for someone to carefully craft words. In some ways I feel like getting out my DnD dice set might be a better way to choose than trying to figure out who might be playing us.

Any vote is better than a no-vote. Just vote on who you think could be an elim, even if the reasoning is literally just “I don’t think this person is a villager.” It’s always better to have a vote than not, in my opinion.

1 hour ago, TJ Shade said:

Striker: Hmm, his lynch train seemed almost due to his reasoning for voting on me, which I do find weird like they seem to want to find reasons to lynch me (like the post about he mentiond he was "super suspicious" about, and after Straw explained, he still kept vote on my because of my posts since that post.) This could be honest tunneling like they claimed it could be, but the tunnel appears a little too narrow. @StrikerEZ, do you have opinions on other players?

I will 100% admit that my tunneling was too narrow. I was hoping that it’d cause people (hopefully elims) to come out to your defense and such, but there hasn’t been a big pushback against your lynch like I was hoping for, so I’m going to trust you for now. Plus it seems like no one wants to lynch you right now.

As for other players, I could get behind lynching any of Mist, Devotary, Lotus, Shard of Reading, Frozen Mint (who I’m still currently voting for), or Straw. I’m gonna go back through and reread everything that’s happened so far and give a more comprehensive reads list, though I don’t expect it to shake up anything too much.

Edited June 24, 2020 by StrikerEZ

[Ashbringer he/him]

I will say, @Mist was in the same endgame stickyness as me in LG66 (perhaps a bit more so), so that could explain her lack of previous analysis. 

However, that game is done now, so if Mist’s silence continues it would be my best lead. So Mist, until / unless she starts to contribute to discussion.

Speaking of which, I’ll get a read post in as soon as I can access my computer and start viewing multiple threads.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

1 hour ago, TJ Shade said:

That.. is in direct contrast to the results we saw above, i.e. the two players who died for inactivity filter. More likely is the fact that they are letting the inactivity filter take care of inactive villagers. Hmm, the fact that you pointed it out makes it plausible for elim!you to point us in the wrong direction. 
But in case you're right, the player that would that mostly fit the description would be Mist. I really liked Vapor's call out "Why don't you post more? I know you could post more because you live with me." xD
Shard of Reading would be apt as well but they have posted only in one cycle so the filter should take care of them this cycle is they don't vote. 

Devotary: Gahh, it's so hard to get a read of her (hope the pronoun is correct?) posts. She's always posting stuff like "I can see elim!X voting elim!Y, but village!X would indicate less of elim!Y". Like she's always talking situational, and not taking a strong stance. She feels like the neutral 3rd party in a war waiting till the end to see the victor before joining them. @Devotary of Spontaneity, what are your reads on players' at the moment? I'm not sure if I've understood your posts correctly, so let me go back and read them to post again. 

Other than @Shard of Reading, everyone else has voted every cycle so there won't be more than one inactivity death anytime soon. The elims usually wouldn't be targeting inactives at this point in the game anyway, though since we haven't managed to lynch any elims we don't have any particularly trusted villagers.

No, that's a fair way to interpret my posting style. I don't have a lot of strong feelings on anyone, or rather the feelings that I have tend to be coupled with uncertainty. I didn't think Mint was likely to be an elim except with you, but I don't like the shift to Ventyl. It's easiest to explain the shift by having elim!Mint, in which case the most likely partners are Fifth and Lotus. Honestly though, I still feel village!Mint, elim!Striker. If we do have elim!Striker, I'm thinking Straw and Fifth as teammates, partially from D1 interactions/the fact that they're the ones pushing lynches/everything you brought up and; Fifth curating the Mint-Ventyl situation in an attempt to make sure Striker didn't become a target and Straw voting on Striker when the lynch was 5-1 against Mint while making it very clear that Straw was prepared to move his vote if a Striker lynch actually seemed likely. We lose two mislynches from now, but I'm willing to put my vote on one of these. I have Fifth as a possible teammate for either Mint or Striker, so I'll put a vote there. I'll look into a world where Ventyl-Mint-Striker is v/v/v, but if that's true we're really swinging at nothing.
 

[Lahilt he/him]

Rollover is at an awkward time for me with my most active time the first 3 hours of the cycle.

I will put my vote on Fifth Scholar  I do not like how the lynch votes have been piling on only a few players .find a person who you are suspicious of and vote for them. Chaotic voting and last minute vote changes ,just to make your vote matter, will only help the Elims .

 

 

Edited June 24, 2020 by Lahilt
clarification

[Fifth Scholar he/him]

19 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

Well, I wasn’t even around to see that almost swing onto me. That’s...interesting. Was Devotary the only one who voted on me for a reason besides just tone, or did I miss the others’ reasoning while I was skimming through the end of the thread?

Also, the choice to kill Gears seems a bit enlightening to me. So far all of our killed players have been semi-active to pretty active. Could the elims possibly be inactive players? Maybe they’re also semi-active?

First of all, I am really not a fan of how quickly that lynch shifted off of Frozen Mint. Obviously people aren’t going to lynch TJ, so I’ll go for another player I suspect who people have previously expressed a desire to lynch and who all of a sudden had a sudden shift off of them last minute.

Straw posted some reasoning against you. I didn’t really have time to seriously evaluate you last cycle before I was basically the deciding vote on the lynch, so I hung with my initial village impression of you because I wasn’t terribly convinced by what had been given, and because I found Ventyl and Mint a lot more suspicious. My gut has been...not great this game, though, so I hope you won’t take it too personally if I do a full analysis of you along with Mint and Mist in my next post.  

19 hours ago, MysticLotus said:

Huh. A significant number of the remaining players must be Elims. I’m surprised we haven’t gotten any yet.

I’m not—I think it was Randuir/DeTess who said that Elim teams tend to be like dominoes. Getting the first one down is hard, but then once you have the first flip, finding subsequent ones through connections and interactions becomes a lot easier. There’s plenty of games where the village has won after a string of initial mislynches, though this situation is certainly not ideal. 

16 hours ago, The_Truthwatcher said:

@Fifth Scholar I did not want to want to vote Mint, while I was online she was a lynch target, but I did not trust Gears, who was pushing for her lynch. I thought this was pretty clear by the fact that I did not vote for her. How has it attracted my support?

Hmm, I guess this is why you suspect me, I did not know that it would be bad to start a discussion on elim kills. I am a new player and I simply assumed that elim kills would probably give you some knowledge. I joined the Pyro bandwagon despite my reservations because this was merely the best option I had that time. I felt Gears' plan of lynching Pyro to gain information about TJ was solid. I am less active mainly because of the time difference. Rollover in my time zone is at around 5 in the morning, and most discussion occurs around then.

@Straw My suspicion on Gears was merely a gut read. The arguments seemed artificial to me, but as I talked about it earlier this was merely me trying to explain my gut read. I did not vote for him because I felt that my gut read was unreliable especially since I was a new player.

@Frozen Mint I had already posted that my only suspicion was Gears, and this one was basically a weak gut read. I did not vote for him because:

1. I was very unsure.
2. I did not want people to rally around my vote to lynch Gears.
3. I merely wanted someone to look into him more closely, I felt that he was getting a lot of village reads simply because he was very active

You...are correct. It was Vapor who added their vote to Mint; I’m not sure why I confused the two of you, so my apologies. Honestly I’m not sure if your vote off-wagon makes me trust you more or less, but I do appreciate that you didn’t mindlessly add to the leading lynch, and I apologise for falsely claiming you did so. Now I’m a lot more grateful we didn’t decide to lynch you behind your back last cycle. I should not be making posts rushed on time, clearly.  And a fair point—I didn’t mean to argue that elim kills were useless as a point of information, merely that trying to draw generalisations from a single kill as a principle point of analysis was unwise; I’ll admit to overstating my case there a bit. 

3 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

Seven hours left in the cycle and we have three posts? Really?

LG66 is finally done, so I should be able to do more analysis posts once I get off mobile, but I’m a little busy IRL right now.

All our discussion seems to happen around this time.  This is simply when I’m usually awake/my brain is actually working/I have free time, which is why I’m not normally around until a few hours before rollover. 

1 hour ago, TJ Shade said:

That.. is in direct contrast to the results we saw above, i.e. the two players who died for inactivity filter. More likely is the fact that they are letting the inactivity filter take care of inactive villagers. Hmm, the fact that you pointed it out makes it plausible for elim!you to point us in the wrong direction. 
But in case you're right, the player that would that mostly fit the description would be Mist. I really liked Vapor's call out "Why don't you post more? I know you could post more because you live with me." xD
Shard of Reading would be apt as well but they have posted only in one cycle so the filter should take care of them this cycle is they don't vote. 

I do not like how Fifth and Straw are basically commandeering the lynches. It makes it very difficult to lynch them if they are elim since a lot of new players seem to trust them. While they are doing a lot of villager-y things, there is still no proof why they should not be elims. 

I also think random voting should be NAI for a game with inactivity filter. Since the players feel compelled to vote because of the filter but also want their votes to matter. That's probably why there's so much bandwagoning in the game. 

Alright so that's 14 players. Remove me and we probably have 5 elims among 13. Time to put the players into piles:

Truthwatcher: Weird read on Gears, but not afraid to post about gut reads even if it makes them stand out. Votes for an inactive to avoid inactive filter. I feel this is better than a reason-less vote on the bandwagon as the way to defeat the filter. @The_Truthwatcher, can you post some reads now that Gears is dead?. Village.

Eternum: Made helpful reads to the village. Not heavily involved in the voting shenanigans. Feels genuinely convinced I'm elim. Their post last cycle in response to my response does not seem like an elim backing out of a mislynch. 

Striker: Hmm, his lynch train seemed almost due to his reasoning for voting on me, which I do find weird like they seem to want to find reasons to lynch me (like the post about he mentiond he was "super suspicious" about, and after Straw explained, he still kept vote on my because of my posts since that post.) This could be honest tunneling like they claimed it could be, but the tunnel appears a little too narrow. @StrikerEZ, do you have opinions on other players?

Frozen Mint: I'm even less convinced that she's elim after the Gears kill. So far everyone she suspected has turned up dead. She wanted to pressure xino in C1, had suspicion on Matrim in C2, and Gears by his association to me in C3, and all 3 were elim kills. I don't want exactly what this means, or if it means anything, but it's likely that she isn't elim. Feels Striker is village (because of his read on me, I suppose), but votes on him as self preservation, then changes to Ventyl. Feel like their reluctance to vote for me is more of an elim backtrack, but other points made in this post seems to cancel it out. @Frozen Mint, who is your prime suspect now?

Mystic Lotus: Went TJ-Ventyl-TJ-Ventyl. Immediately votes upon me, do not give a proper reason. Flips to Ventyl after the analysis post. Flips back for no reason other than to promote train on me (more likely to build a train off 2 votes), flips back to Ventyl on the offer from Fifth. Hmm, they seemed dead set on having me, well, dead. Likely elim, but cannot be sure. @MysticLotus, do you still want me dead? Can you give reads on some other people you want dead?

Mist: Likely a low lying elim. 

Vapor: I actually thought back since my last analysis which basically said "confusion genuine, it didn't look like they were getting help from teammate", but even so, Mist should have been able to give her some sort of idea to avoid such level of confusion. I now feel like it was orchestrated, the reply to the trap from Pyro "Teammates? You guys?" Hmmm, a bit too fake, me thinks. But again, I'm making this under the assumption that she had a certain amount of help from Mist before the game, so maybe this reasoning isn't valid. Unsure.

Lahilt: Their vote on Striker was reasonable. They seem fairly fine. Their activity count is low, but that's not an AI judging from the LG.

Ashbringer: I'll be waiting for the read post. So far, they haven't done any villager-y stuff. They did find Striker's vote odd as well, and my defence appropriate. They correctly thought Pyro flipping village wouldn't give an AI on me. Feels like he's being careful. 

Devotary: Gahh, it's so hard to get a read of her (hope the pronoun is correct?) posts. She's always posting stuff like "I can see elim!X voting elim!Y, but village!X would indicate less of elim!Y". Like she's always talking situational, and not taking a strong stance. She feels like the neutral 3rd party in a war waiting till the end to see the victor before joining them. @Devotary of Spontaneity, what are your reads on players' at the moment? I'm not sure if I've understood your posts correctly, so let me go back and read them to post again. 

Straw and Fifth Scholar: They are really giving off village vibes and everyone seems to trust them at this point, but I cannot help but feel like it's a "two pronged approach" from the elims. Straw seemed to favor Ventyl lynch (without actual voting ), but ended up voting for Striker. Fifth votes for Mint is reserved at how fast people took it up. He specifically brings up Truthwatcher (TW never voted for Mint). Straw supports TW lynch stating he's suspecting them for their reads on Gears (which I believe are genuine), and their find TW's vote on Sparkrunner confusing (when TW had clearly stated they did not want to affect the outcome of the lynch without knowing the situation since they wouldn't be around rollover). Straw wants to lynch Striker. Fifth is strongly against the idea. Fifth begins the shift towards Ventyl and it ends up being the same thing he was being so reserved of the Mint lynch - people taking it up too fast. 
The only thing is - Gears is a weird choice for the elim kill if that's the case, since they seem to ask a lot of opinions from Straw and Fifth. But the could precisely be the reason why they chose Gears. 
Can people discuss about this, and tell me if I'm being paranoid? I feel like I'm being paranoid since both have been largely helpful to the village. I feel like we should be wary about them though. So...

Village: Truthwatcher, Lahilt, Eternum
Unsure: Straw(leaning village), Fifth (leaning village), Devotary, Striker(leaning elim), Ashbringer, Vapor (leaning village), Frozen Mint (leaning village)
Elim: Mist, Mystic Lotus
?: Shard of Reading

Gonna vote for Mist here because they are not at all providing any info, and are lying low, but making sure to vote. 

I am not trying to commandeer any lynches, and agree that input from more people would be wonderful. It’s just a tendency that vocal players who do analysis tend to get followed, as happened with your vote on Mint last cycle; I don’t think you were trying to “commandeer” that lynch, but people followed it because there were few other good targets and your analysis seemed sensible. I do agree that there is no concrete reason to trust either Straw or myself until we lead a lynch on an Elim, though, and right now we’ve both been doing a poor job of that  

Definitely agreed that the filter is producing bandwagons. Don’t know if that’s good or bad, but judging by the Ventyl avalanche last cycle, probably bad. And an interesting point about Mint’s suspicions ending up dead, though I’m not sure how far I’d read into that: coincidence, elim!Mint trying to clear herself hoping somebody notices, and an elim team trying to frame Mint by making her jump between suspicions all seem equally valid/likely explanations. As for my suspicion of TW for a Mint vote, I’ve already explained that it was a highly stupid mistake on my part, though it does make me want to look into Vapour a bit more. 

43 minutes ago, Vapor said:

I'm not really sure who to vote. For now, I'm suspicious of Mist. And I didn't get much help before it started. I'm suspicious of Mist because she is voting, but that's it. She isn't doing much.

Agreed on the suspicion and slight frustration with the only-voting population, though to most players’ credit, that population has been significantly reduced since C1. 

10 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Other than @Shard of Reading, everyone else has voted every cycle so there won't be more than one inactivity death anytime soon. The elims usually wouldn't be targeting inactives at this point in the game anyway, though since we haven't managed to lynch any elims we don't have any particularly trusted villagers.

No, that's a fair way to interpret my posting style. I don't have a lot of strong feelings on anyone, or rather the feelings that I have tend to be coupled with uncertainty. I didn't think Mint was likely to be an elim except with you, but I don't like the shift to Ventyl. It's easiest to explain the shift by having elim!Mint, in which case the most likely partners are Fifth and Lotus. Honestly though, I still feel village!Mint, elim!Striker. If we do have elim!Striker, I'm thinking Straw and Fifth as teammates, partially from D1 interactions/the fact that they're the ones pushing lynches/everything you brought up and; Fifth curating the Mint-Ventyl situation in an attempt to make sure Striker didn't become a target and Straw voting on Striker when the lynch was 5-1 against Mint while making it very clear that Straw was prepared to move his vote if a Striker lynch actually seemed likely. We lose two mislynches from now, but I'm willing to put my vote on one of these. I have Fifth as a possible teammate for either Mint or Striker, so I'll put a vote there. I'll look into a world where Ventyl-Mint-Striker is v/v/v, but if that's true we're really swinging at nothing.
 

Yeah, I think Shade’s take on your posting style put into words what I’ve been experiencing for years better than I could have.  The entire vote train last cycle was weird, and honestly I’m not apologetic about swinging things over to Ventyl; the lynch on Mint had decent reasoning but almost zero explicit opposition in the form of votes, and there was pretty heavy sentiment for a counterlynch which wasn’t going anywhere except Striker, who I trusted at the time. And I wasn’t perturbed necessarily by the speed of the push onto Ventyl, which was natural considering there were a dozen people online and fifteen minutes left in the cycle to make a decision, but rather at who was switching; Gears made some sense, and of course Mint would vote in self-preservation, but Lotus and Eternum jumped on it as well, neither of which I was really expecting. My paranoid concern is that both Mint and Striker are evil, and once my vote was down the Elims took the chance to move the lynch onto Ventyl, but an Eternum/Mint/Lotus team is too far away from...all of my prior reads for me to give that idea terribly much consideration. As for your possible teams, I don’t know why elim!Fifth would try to start a third bandwagon against Ventyl to save an elim!Mint when the Striker lynch was a perfectly valid alternative which was a lot closer to success, dividing the opposition to the Mint lynch, and...okay, I was defending Striker pretty explicitly last round, but since I don’t believe him to be evil I’m okay with that.  I’m a little curious as to what you think I *should* have done, though; had I switched my vote back to Mint, or over to Striker, would that have been better? It was 4/4/4 without my vote, and I kept it on the person I viewed as most suspicious. I’d rather I hadn’t been in a deciding position, but I was, and I made the best choice I could have at the time. 

 

14 minutes ago, Lahilt said:

Rollover is at an awkward time for me with my most active time the first 3 hours of the cycle.

I will put my vote on Fifth Scholar  I do not like how the lynch votes have been piling on only a few players .find a person who you are suspicious of and vote for them. Chaotic voting and last minute vote changes just to make your vote matter will only help the Elims .

 

 

I agree, but there’s usually little alternative; scattershot lynch votes sometimes let the Elims get more control over the lynch than rapid bandwagons because smaller numbers can make larger differences in the vote counts. I’m a little confused as to what you’re accusing me of, though; I wasn’t voting chaotically, changing my vote only once, and doing so in accordance with my suspicions on players. And I refrained from a last-minute vote change, keeping my deciding vote on Ventyl instead of shifting it to Mint or Striker (which I arguably should have done, but oh well ). 
Going to take a closer look at Mint, Mist, Striker, and now Lahilt, and then place my vote. 

[+Lotus she/her]

Short RP this round before it’s rollover 

 

_____________________________________
Feather was sick of this stuffy hideout, but with concerns on security, they were trying to keep everyone together. Today of all days, when she had to have the dress delivered to Lady Amalia! She had managed to get her assistant to take it over, but if she didn’t show that she was really dedicated to her customers, it could become another Luthgard Ball, and she did NOT want a repeat of that. The dress she had carefully down had ripped and fallen off Lady Shiri, showing off her petticoats! Feather hadn’t gotten any customers for the whole winter. That had been, in the end, what drove her to join the underground.

So she sat in the dust, scowling at those around her with a quiet fury. She had so much to get done! 

[Mist she/her]

With 6 elims, the village could win the game in 6 cycles, and elims could reach parity in 5 cycles. With 5 elims, the village could win in 5 cycles and the elims could reach parity in 6 cycles. If there are 6 elims, a mislynch here means parity.

Straw: mild village. 

I noticed Straw and Fifth interactions early in the game. Someone pointed out Fifth agreeing with Xino. TJ and Fifth could be on a team.

Fifth Scholar

I'm willing to vote on Fifth or Mint based on what I've seen from other players. I'm going to go look at their content now. 

[|TJ| he/him]

14 minutes ago, Mist said:

With 6 elims, the village could win the game in 6 cycles, and elims could reach parity in 5 cycles. With 5 elims, the village could win in 5 cycles and the elims could reach parity in 6 cycles. If there are 6 elims, a mislynch here means parity.

Straw: mild village. 

I noticed Straw and Fifth interactions early in the game. Someone pointed out Fifth agreeing with Xino. TJ and Fifth could be on a team.

Fifth Scholar

I'm willing to vote on Fifth or Mint based on what I've seen from other players. I'm going to go look at their content now. 

Yeah this post ain't it. I've noticed you have the tendency to remain quiet until you get voted upon or someone voices suspicion over you, and when they do, you make up some quick post. 

Why do you think me and Fifth are a team? Because he defended me? I never noticed your suspicion on me till now, so if you weren't suspicious of me, you have no reason to be suspicious of Fifth. 

Also, people, I said "discuss" the possibility of elim!Fifth and/or elim!Straw. Not take my probe at a possibility and run at full steam (*sigh* which seems to be the story of the game so far). I don't want to lynch an actively helpful villager. 

I was hoping to offer Straw and see how a lynch between Straw and Fifth would turn out. I remember Straw telling he'd be perfectly fine killing new players within 2-3 cycles if they proved they were good enough in the elim doc on MR42, and that could make a good case of Straw pushing for the Gears elim kill. But after that post from Mist, yeah no. 

On that note, @Fifth Scholar I'd like to hear your thoughts on Straw. 

(This is possibly my last contribution for the cycle)

 

Edited June 24, 2020 by TJ Shade

[Fifth Scholar he/him]

Just now, TJ Shade said:

On that note, @Fifth Scholar I'd like to hear your thoughts on Straw. 

(This is possibly my last contribution for the cycle)

I’m still leaning village on Straw, though this is mostly on the merit of his C1/2 contributions and not anything he’s done or said recently. His silence as of late is a bit perturbing considering his heightened activity in the first few cycles, though the strongest point of suspicion I have against him is that he expressed support of the Ventyl lynch without actually joining it, preferring to keep his vote on Striker; if Straw was evil and knew how Ventyl would flip, he probably wouldn’t want to be seen as part of a last-minute bandwagon on a villager. I think evil!Straw in this situation could be teammates with either of evil!Striker or evil!Mint, as in the former case he could have been trying for a bit of distancing without realising he’d start a wagon on Striker, and in the latter case was part of a concerted push against Mint’s wagon. If he’s teammates with Mint, I’d suspect Lahilt as well. Getting away from hypotheticals, though, I’d mostly just like to see him post his thoughts on the current situation, as he’s been much quieter recently (which makes sense, given that he’s starting to GM LG67, but still). 

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

45 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

The entire vote train last cycle was weird, and honestly I’m not apologetic about swinging things over to Ventyl; the lynch on Mint had decent reasoning but almost zero explicit opposition in the form of votes, and there was pretty heavy sentiment for a counterlynch which wasn’t going anywhere except Striker, who I trusted at the time. 

And I wasn’t perturbed necessarily by the speed of the push onto Ventyl, which was natural considering there were a dozen people online and fifteen minutes left in the cycle to make a decision, but rather at who was switching; Gears made some sense, and of course Mint would vote in self-preservation, but Lotus and Eternum jumped on it as well, neither of which I was really expecting. My paranoid concern is that both Mint and Striker are evil, and once my vote was down the Elims took the chance to move the lynch onto Ventyl, but an Eternum/Mint/Lotus team is too far away from...all of my prior reads for me to give that idea terribly much consideration.

As for your possible teams, I don’t know why elim!Fifth would try to start a third bandwagon against Ventyl to save an elim!Mint when the Striker lynch was a perfectly valid alternative which was a lot closer to success, dividing the opposition to the Mint lynch, and...okay, I was defending Striker pretty explicitly last round, but since I don’t believe him to be evil I’m okay with that.  I’m a little curious as to what you think I *should* have done, though; had I switched my vote back to Mint, or over to Striker, would that have been better? It was 4/4/4 without my vote, and I kept it on the person I viewed as most suspicious. I’d rather I hadn’t been in a deciding position, but I was, and I made the best choice I could have at the time. 

Why did you trust Striker at the time? I'm not sold on him being evil, but I don't think there's a lot that points to him definitely being village, though that's true for most everyone and hasn't stopped anyone including me from having village reads on people with minimal reasoning.

Lotus had previously voted for Ventyl, so it makes sense to switch back when that lynch seemed viable. Eternum didn't seem to be excited about a Ventyl lynch, but went with it to see what happened, it looks like.

Elim!Fifth starts a bandwagon on Ventyl to save elim!Mint, or sees decaying of support for the Mint lynch and decides to push a third bandwagon to make sure elim!Striker doesn't become the target. If neither Mint nor Striker are evil, you're much more likely to be village as well. In that world, the people who aren't doing any sort of provocation and just going along with existing trains become the main elim suspects.

What were your 1-2-3 options for who to lynch yesterday? I preferred to lynch Striker, Ventyl, then Mint, which is the main reason I didn't tie the vote yesterday. Evidently Ventyl was your top choice, but if you switched your vote would it have been to Mint or Striker?

[+Lotus she/her]

Placing a very, very tentative vote on Frozen Mint  
 

Not sure if I can get on again before Rollover.

[Frozen Mint she/her]

3 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

Frozen Mint: I'm even less convinced that she's elim after the Gears kill. So far everyone she suspected has turned up dead. She wanted to pressure xino in C1, had suspicion on Matrim in C2, and Gears by his association to me in C3, and all 3 were elim kills. I don't want exactly what this means, or if it means anything, but it's likely that she isn't elim. Feels Striker is village (because of his read on me, I suppose), but votes on him as self preservation, then changes to Ventyl. Feel like their reluctance to vote for me is more of an elim backtrack, but other points made in this post seems to cancel it out. @Frozen Mint, who is your prime suspect now?

Hell if I know, but I'll try to add something to the discussion. 

I don't like how quickly Vapor and Ash jumped on Mist. Vapor just repeated TJ's reasoning. Ash seems more tentative, so I'm interested in what their promised later post will contain.

 

3 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

Mystic Lotus: Went TJ-Ventyl-TJ-Ventyl. Immediately votes upon me, do not give a proper reason. Flips to Ventyl after the analysis post. Flips back for no reason other than to promote train on me (more likely to build a train off 2 votes), flips back to Ventyl on the offer from Fifth. Hmm, they seemed dead set on having me, well, dead. Likely elim, but cannot be sure.

Yeah, this was odd. I could see an elim doing this to protect other lynch targets (myself and Striker).

 

3 hours ago, MysticLotus said:

Honestly, I have no clue.

Same honestly, but I'd still like to hear some thoughts on players besides TJ, if you have any.

 

3 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

Straw and Fifth Scholar: They are really giving off village vibes and everyone seems to trust them at this point, but I cannot help but feel like it's a "two pronged approach" from the elims. Straw seemed to favor Ventyl lynch (without actual voting ), but ended up voting for Striker. Fifth votes for Mint is reserved at how fast people took it up. He specifically brings up Truthwatcher (TW never voted for Mint). Straw supports TW lynch stating he's suspecting them for their reads on Gears (which I believe are genuine), and their find TW's vote on Sparkrunner confusing (when TW had clearly stated they did not want to affect the outcome of the lynch without knowing the situation since they wouldn't be around rollover). Straw wants to lynch Striker. Fifth is strongly against the idea. Fifth begins the shift towards Ventyl and it ends up being the same thing he was being so reserved of the Mint lynch - people taking it up too fast. 

Yeah, considering how things have been going, I don't like the amount of trust Straw has gotten and I've been taking a closer look at the end of last cycle.

Straw kept the focus on TJ and Pyro in C2. In C3, he says he's suspicious of Ventyl and ended up voting for Striker. He worked very hard to provide reads in C1, which is how he gained everyone's trust but it's easy to do that in C1, because you can switch your reads later (since C1 reads have little basis anyways).

Fifth provided a lot of reads on C2, but he marked Pyro as his primary elim read once the Pyro train already started. In C3, Fifth went in to defend Striker once it was apparent that Striker was a viable candidate for the lynch, successfully keeping the attention on myself and Ventyl. The Ventyl lynch was already getting some support from Straw and Gears when Fifth voted for me, and when Striker became a viable candidate (Straw and Gears, who were very likely going to lead the lynch both indicated that Striker wouldn't be a bad target), Fifth says he doesn't want to lynch Striker. I vote for Striker, then Fifth brings up Ventyl again. For the most part, the rest of the cycle turned into a Ventyl vs. Mint situation, which took a lot of attention off Striker.

Right now I'm wondering if there's a Fifth-Striker-Lotus team, so I'm going to vote on Fifth. Lotus is the one who started with the Ventyl suspicions last cycle.

Edited June 24, 2020 by Frozen Mint

[Mist she/her]

Quote

TJ: Fifth's bandwagon is really weird to be honest.

You said this C1, then voted Silber.

We have at most 2 mislynches before a mislynch causes parity, barring inactivity. 

Quote

Devotary: I'm not really seeing elim Mint except with also elim TJ, or at least village TJ means less likely elim Mint.

I agree with this. Maybe TJ and Fifth or Mint?

3 hours ago, Frozen Mint said:

I'm also really hesitant to vote now since so many of my suspicions have proven to be wrong. I wanted to hear what other people have to say.

This seems like it could be an excuse for an elim, although a villager would say similar things. 

Quote

Mint: I kind of want to put pressure on xino for informational purposes but voting on them doesn't seem useful given the current tally.

This stood out to me.

Quote

Mint: I'm looking more suspiciously at TJ Shade. They're providing commentary here and there but it's almost like they're trying to look like a helpful villager while lying low and not really pushing things one way or the other. But that could just be their playstyle. I'm certainly not one who should be pointing fingers at players for not being assertive enough. I don't want to vote for them, but I do want to keep an eye on them.

Mint and Striker--she didn't want his lynch much.

If discussion is easier at this time, start it just after rollover. 

Random thoughts and things that stood out to me. Sorry it's such a mess/takes up space. Honestly, I'm just not sure.

I'm going to look at TJ and Straw.

[StrikerEZ he/him]

Okay, I started working on a big post, and then a bunch of stuff came up, so I'm scrapping that for now because I am very tired and there isn't a whole lot of time left in the cycle for me to give my thoughts. 

Based on what I did get a chance to look at though before I had to do things and lost all brain power to keep reading, I'm not a fan of how Shard of Reading and Mist were acting in that first cycle, seeming to basically sheep Straw's ideas out of nowhere. For now, seeing as it appears no one else really wants to lynch Frozen Mint right now, I'm going to vote for Mist. 

Also, here's a vote count for now:

Frozen Mint (1): Lotus, 
Mist (4): TJ Shade, Vapor, Ashbringer, Striker,
Fifth Scholar (4): Devotary, Lahilt, Mist, Frozen Mint

[Ashbringer he/him]

Yeah, that post from Mist isn’t moving my vote anywhere. So here’s some analysis (beware, I couldn’t get to my computer so here goes a large post from mobile):

Striker: The one I’ve previously analyzed. My main suspicion of Striker was from him so heavily pushing a TJ lynch, but he’s admitted that he’s been tunneling now and I doubt TJ will get lynched soon. What is interesting is that he almost got lynched last cycle, being one vote short of tying with Ventyl. (At first I though he did tie with Ventyl, but Mint had moved a vote off him). I feel like Me and Devotary (maybe Straw?) voted Striker just to not vote on the Ventyl or Mint wagons, but it’s something to look for. Analysis: neutral, but TJ’s alignment could give some clues to Striker’s.

TJ: I’m mainly gut reading TJ as Village for now, as he’s acting in a similar analysis role as last game and he does raise a lot of good points. He just seems to be coming under a lot of fire by a lot od people. However, intentionally or not, he’s been leading lynches alongside Straw and Fifth (TJ started/led the Mint train, Fifth led the Ventyl train, Straw (?) led the Striker train). It seems like TJ would prefer that not to be the case, as would I, but that’s not really in his control unless something shady is going on. Analysis: Village lean (probably my best), but if more lynches follow his reasoning that may shift.

(Yes, I know I’m voting for the same one as TJ, and for the same reasons, but I agree with TJ/Vapor’s reasoning. Mist still has given no real reads for her votes. I’m looking to avoid people just voting on who TJ (or anyone) voted on without giving a reason for their own.)

Straw: From what I can see, one of the better and more experienced analysis players. At least in the beginning he analyzed almost every post made and wanted to make votes based on reason rather than randomness. He also really inquires why people are suspicious of others, especially himself. AFAIK this is just how Straw works, as it matches with his playstyle in the games I’ve looked over, but IDK how else a lynch is supposed to start D1. He’s also the first to post reads, and led a semi-wagon on Striker (I doubt intentionally, but it was there). Analysis: slight Village, but plays with offense is a good defense.

Bonus: Straw and Fifth immediately went at each other, at least in their reads and their game strategies if not in accusations of Eliminator-ship. I don’t really know what that means, but if that’s unusual for Straw-Fifth interactions that may be worth looking at. Fifth’s giant posts are hard to read through on mobile...

 

...Okay, ninja’d by a lot of people, including Mist again, so I’ll stop here. Next should be Mist, Fifth, Mint, Lotus, and maybe Devotary.

[Vapor she/her]

Mist makes a good point. Frozen Mint has been suspicious, but every time she deflects suspicion off of her. Sorry if this is a mislynch, but I think Frozen Mint is more suspicious than Mist

[Eternum he/him]

Sorry for not being all that active these past couple of cycles. Lots of stuff irl happening at the most inopportune times.

33 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Lotus had previously voted for Ventyl, so it makes sense to switch back when that lynch seemed viable. Eternum didn't seem to be excited about a Ventyl lynch, but went with it to see what happened, it looks like.

I felt like there really wasn't much of an argument on Ventyl and so many people were voting on them based on gut reads that I got curious. In the case I was wrong and they were actually elim, fantastic. In the case that they were village, I was curious to see the responses by everyone who voted them, but.. that doesn't seem to have worked out 

It's actually very weird how people are essentially ignoring them, honestly.

1 hour ago, Mist said:

With 6 elims, the village could win the game in 6 cycles, and elims could reach parity in 5 cycles. With 5 elims, the village could win in 5 cycles and the elims could reach parity in 6 cycles. If there are 6 elims, a mislynch here means parity.

Straw: mild village. 

I noticed Straw and Fifth interactions early in the game. Someone pointed out Fifth agreeing with Xino. TJ and Fifth could be on a team.

Fifth Scholar

I'm willing to vote on Fifth or Mint based on what I've seen from other players. I'm going to go look at their content now. 

I find myself agreeing with TJ that this post is just weird as heck. Some meta talk, a random statement that they find Straw village.

Then somehow ties Straw and Fifth interactions at the start of C1 with Silber's old Fifth/Xino team tinfoil with TJ and Fifth being on the same team? I'm honestly so confused.

For now, Mist. There is probably an elim hiding among the lesser active people and I think you're a good start.