Quick Fix 45: To Set an Example

[Fifth Scholar he/him]

18 hours ago, Straw said:

So, first of all, you claim that I’m attacking people who are randomly voting. What makes you say that? I don’t like the strategy, but I don’t feel like it means they’re particularly likely to be an eliminator.

You also claim several times that poke votes are valuable for starting D1 discussion. What makes you say that? In my opinion, poke votes don’t generate any individual discussion, since they’re all the same and have no particular basis. I also don’t think they particularly prompt the poked player to post, especially when you have a lot of them flying around. People aren’t going to get eliminated off of single votes, and they don’t put the poked player under any particular focus. I feel like they’re going to check in when they feel like it, and poke votes aren’t going to affect that very much. It doesn’t incentivize contribution in the slightest, and just makes you feel good for “promoting activity”.

I also disagree that you can get information from who eliminators randomly vote on. Eliminators have no reason to care about how a random vote will look on a flip, since it represents no thought and requires no evidence. As I’ve mentioned before, it’s not putting anyone under fire.

You say that if people weren’t randomly voting, they’d just be making useless check in posts, but that’s not really true. None of the posts so far has been particularly based around their random vote, and I’m curious what you think it adds to their posts?

I find your point about this being acceptable due it being D1 to be odd. There’s no particular reason why votes now shouldn’t be based off of thread things. You also seem to be stating the obvious when you say that vote reasoning increases over time.

As to what information I’m trying to gather, I’m mainly just reading how people enter the thread and what they say. I’m also trying to get some discussion going around random voting in order to actually create some analyzable interactions.

I’d like to see a response from you on this.  Overall, you seem to think that random votes generate individual discussion, which they really don’t. Anyone else want to chime in with their thoughts as well?

I thought you were saying that the random voters were inherently suspicious or counterproductive, which is what I disagree with. On reflection you likely weren’t attacking them specifically, but the tone of the multiple posts in a row condemning the behaviour gave me that impression, likely. 
Poke votes can generate early lynch discussion—they put some names in red and allow subsequent votes to have a firmer grounding. They’re not especially productive when compared to evidence-based ones, of course, but they’re better than nothing and get people comfortable with voting to begin with. Of course, that’s less of a concern in this game with the filter, but it’s still a point in their favour. 
Pushing back the discussion on AI-indicativeness of Elim votes because of time—this post already might not make it within this cycle. QFs are so fast.  I think the conversation has moved a bit beyond this anyway, so PM me if you’d like to discuss it. 
I tend to believe the random voting will on occasion produce analyseable interactions, which is why I was OK with it and defended it. Provoking more general discussion is good too, though. It just has to turn into lynch discussion at some point, or it has no teeth. And pokes can be used to give the kind of discussion you’re talking about teeth, which has evidently happened in the time I’ve been away. 

18 hours ago, Lord_Silberfarben said:

I REPLIED!

Hello matrim, did you vote me because i kept roleblocking you last game?

I agree with this, eventually, most votes(the most important) will eventually end up having meaning.

although i already have a weak suspicion

Am I seeing a xino-scholar team? maybe.

you agreed with them twice. this is not really AI, but it is all i have.

I disagree with the second part, last game we got most of out team almost inactive, coda almost went asleep(didn't post for a whole cycle) while at the same time engaging in doc discussion and actions.

for now: Fifth Scholar

might change later

 

I agree with Straw that this is an odd conclusion to jump to. I generally state my village reads pretty early, mainly so I can wince later when I see how badly I’ve been pocketed, and since Xino’s points seemed sensible, I noted that. While trust obviously should never be absolute, it’s important to recognise that some people are making positive contributions to discussion and helping the village, as putting everyone in your suspect pool typically leaves you too many people to wade through.  

13 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Only the final vote counts in terms of considering who is/isn't likely to be on a team together, so in the absence of reasoning a vote is only useful if it sticks. Or if it prompts a bandwagon; one vote means nothing but several votes on the same person should prompt a response. On that note, Fifth. 

Would you say that early D1 elim votes can be truly random, since they can easily be reassigned later when actual 'evidence' pops up? I don't think I would make any alignment shift judgements on Lahilt, Silber, Eternum, or TJ should any of their respective voters be evil, provided those votes either shift or become irrelevant throughout the day.

7 hours ago, Straw said:

Okay, so let's look at some reads for the moment!

Gears (mild village)

Mild village for being the first person to post as a new player, I feel like an eliminator would try to be more cautious. I don't find his RNG votes or plan to be particularly telling, feels like confused new player.

The_Truthwatcher (null)

They claimed that random voting wasn't useful, but then just popped in with a random vote on Silber. Also doesn't seem to understand random votes entirely, since Silber has posted and given thoughts. @The_Truthwatcher what caused your change of opinion on random votes?

Matrim's Dice (very mild village)

Pointing out that Gears was a new player was good. They said that they would figure out reads in the morning, which I'll be curious to see.

TJ Shade (very mild village)

They said they wanted reasoned votes, which I like. Claims Xino changed tactics. @TJ Shade what exactly did Xino change?

Eternum (null)

I agreed with their comments on poke votes being easy distancing if analyzed and their point that as of now poke vote discussion was more useful than the votes themselves.

Frozen Mint (mild elim)

They jumped on Gears right away, which I find suspicious since Gears is new, but IDK if they know that.

Devotary of Spontaneity (null)

They voted on Fifth to prompt a response, which is better than a random vote. They commented on votes only being useful if they stick or start a train, which I agree with.

Fifth Scholar (mild/moderate elim)

They said that they wanted everyone to contribute meaningfully, which I agree with. They disagreed with Mint on Gears, which was good. I was rereading Fifth's post and I don't think he actually ever gave much reason for a vote on me. Fifth disagreed with me, but disagreement is hardly grounds for an elim read on someone. Fifth also said that he wasn't condemning me, which I found odd considering the fact that he was voting on me. I also noticed that they said that inactive discussion and lynches weren't helpful, which seems to contradict their agreement with random voting on inactives?

Lord_Silberfarben (mild elim)

They're okay with Truthwatcher's vote on them, but prompted for reasoning, which I like. They voted on Fifth for agreeing with Xino, and immediately tinfoiled a Fifth/Xino elim team. @Lord_Silberfarben what makes you find agreement with another player to be suspicious?

Xinoehp512 (null)

They encouraged actual lynch discussion, and the forming of trains, which I like. They said they were fine with killing Lahilt, despite them having no posts, which I find odd but not that suspicious. 

Overall, I think I'll be good with adding some pressure to Fifth Scholar. Hopefully, this will prompt a bit more discussion on him.

I'd appreciate if other people could provide reads, even if they just give reads on a few people/posts they find notable. If anyone disagrees with my reasoning for any of these reads, or has a very different read on someone, I'd appreciate if they could say why so we can discuss it.

Dunno why these quotes fused but they did. Devotary, I’m not thinking about the vote itself but the way it’s cast—Elims tend to make their votes on fellow teammates very easily retractable, pokes especially, and looking for signs of that can be helpful. Also, it might not be a trend anymore, but it was very common eliminator practice the first year or two that I played for teammates to select each other for poke votes for cheap distancing. Don’t know if that’s still the case, but it’s worth noting. 
Straw, I really didn’t have a reason to vote you besides my abstract disagreement with you, but I added it anyway because a) I needed to and b. I wasn’t terribly happy with your condemnation of the random voting, and felt that a vote on you would be a good form of temporary retaliation, and making my position clear. I’ll go ahead and Straw now, though, as you’ve been a helpful participant in discussion from what I’ve skimmed in the thread, and aside from that I think my vote simply isn’t doing much good, as you’re not a serious candidate anymore. 

6 hours ago, Vapor said:

I read through this, big mistake, very long. After analyzing, I have decided to put a vote on (sorry) Fifth Scholar. @Fifth Scholar

How I feel after reading through five pages of new content too.  That said, unless I missed it, a bit of justification would be nice for this vote. 

6 hours ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

Right, have a few minutes. 

I think Straw's a good player so I'll mimic them here, don't have time to do anything more. Fifth Scholar. Should be able to get on to change my vote if necessary.

Are you on to change it?  I’ve simply been busy, else I’d have gotten back here earlier. And on a quick glance through some recent posts, you apparently did. I will address this later. 

4 hours ago, Frozen Mint said:

I agree. I'm not against lynching Fifth but I'm not a fan of voting to hop on a train unless there's a specific reason for it (like Devotary's). Not that I'm particularly suspicious of Vapor and Pyro. Vapor's new and Pyro said they'd be busy this cycle. But I really hope that no one else jumps on the train without providing some reasoning.

edit: So Pyro's back and retracted his vote which seems strange? For now I'm just going to take that as he managed to get some free time. Also we no longer have a train on Fifth which... I'm glad we've exploring a broad range of possibilities. But I would really like for @Fifth Scholar to respond to the accusations. Hoping he will do that even without the train on him though, considering all the attention he's gotten.

 

What does circle voting mean?

 

In general, I'd like to hear more from 

 @Shard of Reading @MysticLotus @Mist @Experience @Ventyl @StrikerEZ @Lahilt @Sparkrunner

Long list. Sorry. 

Some reads:

Gears - mild village. Someone already mentioned this (forgot who) but I agree that a new player casting the first vote is unlikely to be elim.

Matrim's Dice - slight elim. Generally seems to be promoting discussion and wants to be thoughtful about his vote. But I wonder if the hesitation to vote might be an elim delay tactic. It's easier to feign innocence if you get more involved in things later rather than sooner.

Straw - mild village. I didn't like his idea about waiting to vote until he has a reason so early on but that seems more like a genuine disagreement. He's done a lot to promote discussion since then. One thing I will point out that it's kind of strange Straw complained about the current voting trend when he hadn't done anything to try and influence it.

Silber - slight elim. Jumped on the Fifth-xino team idea rather quickly. Before you all jump on me for hypocrisy, my main complaint isn't that it was hasty.  Elims are unlikely to support each other out in the open so early on. There's no reason for them to at this point and it just makes them more suspicious. This could just be a disagreement but I feel like this kind of grouping could also be used as an elim tactic. Plants the seed in our heads. Proposing a pairing now could be a distraction tactic.

Fifth - slight elim. Their initial post is strange. They want meaningful discussion but also say they're okay with random votes.

TJ Shade - mild village. They seemed to be laying low at first which I thought was suspicious but their recent commentary on Straw seems more helpful and less bandwagon-y.

Xino - slight elim. This is more instinct than anything (sorry xino). They seem somewhat unpredictable and also noncommittal. This might just have to do with the nature of stab voting? I'm not really sure what that is.  But I'm not feeling great about them.

I'll vote later. Mostly because this post took forever and I want a little SE break now.

 

@Gears You need to take back your last vote by writing that person's name in green before you can vote on a new person (if you did and I missed it, apologies, this thread is moving faster than my brain can lol).

Vote Count:
Fifth Scholar (3) - Lord Silberfarben, Devotary of Spontaneity, Vapor
Lahilt (1) - Xinoeph
Gears (1) - Frozen Mint
Eternum (1) - StrikerEZ
Straw (2) - Fifth Scholar, MysticLotus
Pyro (3) - Eternum, Matrim's Dice, Straw
Xinoehp (1) - TJ
Lord Silberfarben (1) - Truthwatcher

In terms of addressing accusations against me, I’ve replied to Straw’s post and will try to catch anything else that was an actual accusation in the post following this, and then hopefully stop multiquoting. I suppose I can’t complain too much about the wagon on me given my defence of random voting, but other than that I’m confused as to why you’re reading me as evil from your explanation; unless you think my stance that random votes can produce meaningful discussion is an inherently evil belief, which there’s little I can do about, I see little reason for your suspicion. 

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Like I said I don't have, like any solid suspicions at all so really- at least for me- this particular C1 lynch is an info lynch. Based on Pyro's alignment we can glean info on the later votes on him. That being said, really anyone we lynch would give us similar info so if you find a better alternative based on more AI criteria that would be preferred.

In other news I think it's interesting how quickly the votes on Fifth fell away.

Hmm. Rollover, I believe, is in 3 hours and 40 minutes. 

I am a little interested in that too, particularly in how Devotary was key in both forming and dissolving it—I don’t think it means she’s necessarily evil, but she seems to have largely directed the shift in both instances without terribly much reasoning other than wanting a response from me about Straw’s comments. Dunno if that speaks to Devotary leading a larger coalition, evil or no, or just her powers of persuasion more generally  After this post, which I’m making simply to get something in before rollover, I want to do actual player analysis rather than just multi quoting and responses. Also, Pyromancer, simply because I find your vote and interactions with me odder than Silber’s for the present. If I have time before the cycle ends, I will place a more well-thought vote, but I figured an immediate response was more pressing. Sorry for being mostly absent—this is only my second or third QF and I always forget how fast they move. I’ll try to check more periodically going forward so I’m not in such an almighty rush next cycle. 

[Vapor she/her]

I have read through all of this. Silber is suspicious and is using his tinfoil method as an excuse. Therefore, my final vote is off of Pyro and onto Silber.

Was that enough reasoning?

Edited June 21, 2020 by Vapor

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

You don't have to vote twice

I think what people are looking for is WHY you think that.

[Eternum he/him]

2 minutes ago, Vapor said:

I have read through all of this. Silber is suspicious and is using his tinfoil method as an excuse. Therefore, my final vote is off of Pyro and onto Silber.

Was that enough reasoning?

Fair enough, but keep in mind that explaining your thought process is more useful than simply stating your reason. And, ninja'd. Pff.

[Vapor she/her]

Why I think what?

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

Why you think Siber is using his tinfoil method as an excuse. What made you think that? What do you think the excuse is for? What do you think his motives were?

[Mist she/her]

I'm suspicious of Vapor, but this is her first game. Also, she may not be able to respond before rollover. We're not at our house. Vapor.

I'm slightly suspicious of Matrim.

I'm "experienced," apparently. All 3 games.

With 22 people, there's probably 6 elims, which would be 27%. 20% is 4.4, 30% is 6.6. 7 is unlikely, but possible. 

@Shard of Reading, you should vote soon. 

Experience, Ventyl, and Sparkrunner haven't posted yet, and haven't been on here for a while. I'll send them PMs soon, when I have time.

[Ashbringer he/him]

Tinfoiling, in my opinion, isn’t incredibly suspicious. We don’t have much to go on in the first cycle, and since there’s no roles there won’t be much to go on for a while. At least a tinfoil reason is a reason.

Am I saying this because I will end up tinfoiling a lot once I can actually analyze things? Yes. Yes I am. But spouting theories is NAI in my opinion, until it becomes a case of tunneling or refusing to listen to anyone else’s reasoning.

I think it’s currently Silber (5), Pyro (4). I don’t know if I read anything from either, so... Pyro for the tie. If people are emphatic about not tying the lynch D1 I’ll move back to Experience or someone else, but I’d rather let fate decide over my skimming on mobile for a real judgement.

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

I'D rather Silber die, as I know I'm village wereas the inverse isn't true, but I know that doesn't mean much.

I think Silber will provide more info than me at this point TBH, with the sudden swing onto them.

[Mat he/him]

Made it!

Writing this really quick after skimming those really quick :P. Maybe not the best idea

I'll leave my vote for the tie.

7 minutes ago, Mist said:

I'm slightly suspicious of Matrim.

Same question as was for Lahilt; Why? I like to know why people are suspicious of me.

And I'm being summoned for more family stuff. See y'all for rollover.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

4 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Uh, mainly the fact that some trust reads are voting on Fifth and I don’t have any solid enough reads to really care about who gets lynched.

Which players who voted for Fifth did you have trust reads on?

3 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

Thinking about it, Straw (kind of) scared away the voters   Specifically, Pyro and Vapor, then retracted it himself. Devotary then retracted their vote stating they got enough information from the derailment of the train (what useful info, if I may ask @Devotary of Spontaneity?). All this could be NAI but I can see a very slight possibility of some combination of Fifth, Devotary and Straw being elims. 

Mostly that nobody had any strong feelings on lynching Fifth and were willing to shift away with little provocation. The counter-lynch on Pyro came heavily from people who had previously voted Fifth, instead of as an entirely separate swing. More concrete information doesn't come until people die.

32 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

I am a little interested in that too, particularly in how Devotary was key in both forming and dissolving it—I don’t think it means she’s necessarily evil, but she seems to have largely directed the shift in both instances without terribly much reasoning other than wanting a response from me about Straw’s comments.

I don't think I had anything to do with dissolving the train; that mostly happened on it's own. I started it mostly because you already had a vote and I wanted to see if people would take a mini wagon and run with it, and that did indeed happen. I see that even random, temporary votes can be impactful. 

1 hour ago, Gears said:

If Silber was an elim, I would hope that they would peer review everything before posting. If Silber didn't check in with their teammates before posting a tinfoil theory, then surely Silber's teammates would tell Silber to offer a better defense to salvage the best of a bad situation. This leads me to believe that Silber is a paranoid villager who is bad at making excuses.

Peer reviewing posts tends not to be a thing that happens. Elims coordinate on general strategy, but it's rare for individual posts to be submitted in a doc for approval before being put in thread.

I note that there's a relatively quick wagon forming on Silber, and I don't incredibly know why. I see that despite trying to vote early, I end up making a decision thing at the last minute again. I don't think there's a super high chance of Pyro or Silber being evil; late cycle vote swings have a lower than proportional chance of hitting an elim while I'm not seeing the same things from Pyro that I remember from MR42. Either lynch should give some useful information. There's been a mild swing back onto Pyro, so I guess I'll vote Silberfarben.

[Straw he/him]

13 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Tinfoiling, in my opinion, isn’t incredibly suspicious. We don’t have much to go on in the first cycle, and since there’s no roles there won’t be much to go on for a while. At least a tinfoil reason is a reason.

Am I saying this because I will end up tinfoiling a lot once I can actually analyze things? Yes. Yes I am. But spouting theories is NAI in my opinion, until it becomes a case of tunneling or refusing to listen to anyone else’s reasoning.

Tinfoiling itself isn't suspicious, it's suspicious when you use it as an excuse for everything.

4 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Peer reviewing posts tends not to be a thing that happens. Elims coordinate on general strategy, but it's rare for individual posts to be submitted in a doc for approval before being put in thread.

I note that there's a relatively quick wagon forming on Silber, and I don't incredibly know why. I see that despite trying to vote early, I end up making a decision thing at the last minute again. I don't think there's a super high chance of Pyro or Silber being evil; late cycle vote swings have a lower than proportional chance of hitting an elim while I'm not seeing the same things from Pyro that I remember from MR42. Either lynch should give some useful information. There's been a mild swing back onto Pyro, so I guess I'll vote Silberfarben.

Silber has been in people's reads as an elim for a while, so I think that it isn't really a sudden rush, more that people were on different wagons before. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

EDIT: Forgot to agree about the peer review thing. It really doesn't happen and shouldn't be used as an excuse.

Edited June 21, 2020 by Straw

[Orlok Tsubodai]

This cycle is now over. Please do not post until the next cycle is up.

[Orlok Tsubodai]

Hello everyone, this meeting is just to kinda let you all meet up with your fellow Skaa and find out just you know who works with what and all the usual stuff I’m sure you’re not new to this thing. But first, I’m sure you’re all thinking ‘oh my, who’s this fellow speaking to us all?’ and to answer that question, I’m the guy responsible for this thieving crew. Not much else to say really about me, since this meeting is for you guys to mingle and get to know each other. Think of it as more of an informal gathering, rather than a formal meeting. Us Skaa don’t really do formality after all, ya feel me?

Maybe I’ll have more to talk about next time I call a meet-up, but you know I got things to do and doesn’t really look like anything urgent is happening so I guess this is adios from me, and don’t question how I know the phrase adios it’s something I just happened to invent just now we’re still in Mistborn world for all you RPers out there somewhere.

---

Vote Count:

The Young Pyromancer: 5 (Gears, Matrim's Dice, Ashbringer, Eternum, Fifth Scholar)
Lord_Silberfarben: 7 (Straw, Vapor, TJ Shade, The_Truthwatcher, The Young Pyromancer, Frozen Mint, Devotary of Spontaneity)
Vapor: 1 (Mist)
Fifth Scholar: 1 (Lord_Silberfarben)
Straw: 1 (MysticLotus)
Lahilt: 1 (Xinoehp512
Eternum: 1 (StrikerEZ)
Matrim's Dice: 1 (Lahilt)
 

Lord_Silberfarben was lynched. They were a member of the Skaa Thieving Crew.
Xinoehp512 was killed. They were a member of the Skaa Thieving Crew.

Player list:

Spoiler

1. Gears
2. Matrim's Dice - Rieldi
3. Ashbringer
4. Straw
5. Vapor
6. Shard of Reading - Reading
7. Mist - Lumen
8. Lord_Silberfarben - Skaa
9. TJ Shade - Box
10. The_Truthwatcher
11. Eternum
12. MysticLotus - Feather
13. TheYoungPyromancer
14. Experience - Drahs Xperience
15. Frozen Mint
16. Ventyl - Aaiden Etteax
17. Fifth Scholar - Al Funcoot
18. Devotary of Spontaneity - Caliex
19. Xinoehp512 - Pelran - Skaa
20. StrikerEZ - Varen Darland
21. Lahilt - Vilt Fayn Dangera
22. Sparkrunner - Roadwalker

 

[Mat he/him]

I would say what I think this tells us except I’m on mobile and don’t have access to my notes. That will come later.

I do remember Silber considering a Fifth/Xino team and now that village!Silber/Xino is confirmed does that soft-clear Fifth? Or no. Not sure how that kind of clear works in that scenario.

[Gears]

An analysis on people who voted for Silber:

Straw: Didn't like Silber's flimsy excuse for voting Fifth and making the xino-Fifth theory. 

Vapor: Provides vague restated reasoning, could be new player syndrome.

TJ Shade: Didn't like the Fifth bandwagon.

The_Truthwatcher: Placed a random vote on Silber then never retracted it.

Pyro: Self-preservation vote.

Frozen Mint: Chose the most suspicious of the lynch candidates.

Devotary: Notes that the odds of either lynch candidate being an elim are low. Uses knowledge of Pyro's playstyle when an elim to decide who to vote for.

I don't think any of these votes are particularly suspicious, especially since Silber was behaving very suspiciously. Vapor's vote is the most suspicious, but as they are a new player, I will be lenient.

Matrim, Fifth is not soft-cleared as Silber had no information and could have hypothesized elim!Fifth with village!xino as easily as any other combination of alignments.

EDIT: @Shard of Reading, @Experience, @Ventyl, @Sparkrunner, you did not vote. One grace cycle remains.

Edited June 21, 2020 by Gears

[Orlok Tsubodai]

A reminder that PMs are open, but must include Stink and myself in them. Group PMs are disallowed.

[Ookla-son-son-Ventyl]

Okay after reading the cycle one thread, I have determined that no role games are much harder.  

In all seriousness though, I’m sad that Xino is dead! I was looking forward to playing with the them as a fellow villager. I don’t think we gain any insight on who could be a possible elim. If you look at Xino’s post he never gave any suspicious, unless you count a “stab vote” as one. So unless Lahilt is an elim who is trying to mind game us, I don’t have an leads so far. But, if anyone goes back and looks through C1, try to find if people were reacting to Xino in a suspicious way. Though, Xino’s death could be the elims killing off an experienced player, which I don’t like! Cause according to this:

No Games
Gears
MysticLotus
The_Truthwatcher
Vapor
One Game
Ashbringer
Lahilt
Two Games
Matrim's Dice
Shard of Reading
TJ Shade
Returning
Eternum
Frozen Mint
Sparkrunner
Experienced
Devotary of Spontaneity
Experience
Fifth Scholar
Lord_Silberfarben
Mist
Straw
StrikerEZ
TheYoungPyromancer
Ventyl
Xinoehp512

I’m an experienced player! Although, I’m not sure I agree with it. Considering how Ashbringer outplayed me extremely well in the LG. So with that knowledge, I don’t think we can put any of their actions to “new player weirdness.” Simply because of how well they’ve already gotten the hang off the game.

Also, I’m totally not an elim! 

 

[Mat he/him]

1 hour ago, Ventyl said:

Okay after reading the cycle one thread, I have determined that no role games are much harder.  

In all seriousness though, I’m sad that Xino is dead! I was looking forward to playing with the them as a fellow villager. I don’t think we gain any insight on who could be a possible elim. If you look at Xino’s post he never gave any suspicious, unless you count a “stab vote” as one. So unless Lahilt is an elim who is trying to mind game us, I don’t have an leads so far. But, if anyone goes back and looks through C1, try to find if people were reacting to Xino in a suspicious way. Though, Xino’s death could be the elims killing off an experienced player, which I don’t like!

Yes. I absolutely agree, this kind of analysis is much harder. I can't say I agree with anything after that.

You seem to be suggesting your villager self way too much- more then is necessary for your first post of the game. Your vote is super weird- a random vote from a villager at the beginning of the game means absolutely nothing, Xino's vote on Lahilt wasn't anything to do with suspicions. Xino would've known absolutely nothing about anyone's roles, not even any ideas, as when he posted that the game hadn't even been going for 2 hours.

And there's this:

1 hour ago, Ventyl said:

Also, I’m totally not an elim! 

This is the single post off-putting-gut-read-inducing thing I have ever read in SE. Ventyl for now.

 

Edit: You know, this might just be him trolling for no reason at all. My first interaction with him was him rick-rolling me...

Either way his voting pattern is enough to claim my vote on him, so it stays until I get an explanation. (@Ventyl)

Edited June 22, 2020 by Matrim's Dice

[Mint11 she/her]

I agree Ventyl's post is very odd. But it makes me think it's too odd to indicate elim. Not a good way to look un-suspicious.

Matrim, your vote on Ventyl is interesting considering you took a while to consider your options last cycle. Is the change intentional?

At this point, I'm pretty confident that Vapor's suspicious behavior is more due to his newness than anything else.

I have a village read on Eternum for the same reason as Straw. They've made some good contributions to the discussion.

I'm retracting my suspicions on Fifth for now. I didn't realize that the opinion of random voting leading to meaningful discussion was one that existed to be honest, which is why I jumped to the idea of it being a contradiction. But if that's Fifth's stance, I don't know if I agree with it, but disagreement isn't really cause for suspicion on its own.

I'm looking more suspiciously at TJ Shade. They're providing commentary here and there but it's almost like they're trying to look like a helpful villager while lying low and not really pushing things one way or the other. But that could just be their playstyle. I'm certainly not one who should be pointing fingers at players for not being assertive enough. I don't want to vote for them, but I do want to keep an eye on them.

And I'm sure I can trust y'all to point out any flaws in my reasoning because this game is very busy and keeping track of everything is wild.

 

I'm not very good at analyzing voting patterns so am interested to see what other people come up with.

[Mat he/him]

2 minutes ago, Frozen Mint said:

Matrim, your vote on Ventyl is interesting considering you took a while to consider your options last cycle. Is the change intentional?

Uh, no. Last cycle I didn't really see anything blatant. I did, however, in Ventyl's post. Though, like you said, it might be too blatant to be anything.

5 minutes ago, Frozen Mint said:

I'm looking more suspiciously at TJ Shade. They're providing commentary here and there but it's almost like they're trying to look like a helpful villager while lying low and not really pushing things one way or the other. But that could just be their playstyle. I'm certainly not one who should be pointing fingers at players for not being assertive enough. I don't want to vote for them, but I do want to keep an eye on them.

Interesting point. From what I've seen from TJ, he typically comes out pretty heavy, bringing out all the analysis he can find that would be beneficial. I would say lying low would be a change in playstyle.

 

 

[StrikerEZ he/him]

Sorry for not getting on before rollover. I spent most of the morning doing father's day stuff then reading, spent the beginning of the afternoon reading, took a nap, had dinner, and then realized I'd forgotten about the game.  I'm caught up now and am gonna give some of my thoughts on players based on some impressions I got on reading through the 5 pages of C1 I missed.

1. Gears: Okay, I don't really remember much of their posts, so just gonna put neutral for now.
2. Matrim's Dice: I've been a huge fan of the way they've been going about analyzing the game, though I don't quite remember most of their reads so far. 
3. Ashbringer: I remember they've posted a little bit, but they've been pretty busy and haven't posted a whole lot.
4. Straw: A lot of the C1 discussion either centered around Straw or was led by him. This is starting to become a normal for him, I think, so it's mostly NAI in my opinion. However, the things he was saying and doing that weren't necessarily linked to the fact that he was super involved in the discussion make me lean village on him.
5. Vapor: I'm personally willing to give her the benefit of the doubt in regards to the vote flipping as she's a new player, but we'll see how the game progresses.
6. Shard of Reading: Have they even posted? If not, @Shard of Reading
7. Mist: They've posted maybe one or two times, but their votes were really weird if I remember correctly. I think I'm leaning elim, and for now I'll put my vote on Mist.
8. Lord_Silberfarben - Skaa
9. TJ Shade: Similar thoughts to Matrim basically. I've been liking the analysis they've been putting out, but I don't really remember much of the substance itself at this point. Okay, just got ninja'd by Mint and Matrim...did I miss something while reading TJ's posts? They seemed pretty normal to me, though I wasn't reading anything too deeply, just trying to get through it so I could start working on this post.
10. The_Truthwatcher: I remember feeling slightly village about them, but not sure why. 
11. Eternum: Really sound logic from what I remember, though again, I can't remember much of the specifics.
12. MysticLotus: New player, and I couldn't really get a solid read on anything about them so far.
13. The Young Pyromancer: Normally their voting patterns would've set off some alarm bells for me, but I think it's mostly NAI for them. At least for now. This kind of seems to be their normal style from what I've seen of them so far, regardless of alignment.
14. Experience: Have they posted yet? If not, @Experience
15. Frozen Mint: I think I understand why some people would've considered their vote on Gears a bit hasty, but it has to be considered under the fact that it was so early in the cycle that it was probably the most well thought out vote of the game so far at that point. Seems pretty NAI to me. Their response to the questions asked of them seemed okay, though they're probably experienced enough to be able to sound village as an elim under pressure.
16. Ventyl: Seeing as he's my brother and we share a similar sense of humor, I'm not going to read too much into the whole "Hey fellow villagers, how are you doing on this fine day, villagers?" shtick he's got going on in his first and only post. It's a very extreme version of something I have done myself in the past (on both sides). I don't quite understand his vote on Lahilt though.
17. Fifth Scholar: I actually agreed with their first post of last cycle and meant to express that agreement in thread but got distracted yesterday and then didn't check the thread at all today, until a couple hours ago. So the vote train on them seemed a bit odd to me reading back through the thread. Especially considering that it seemed like such flimsy reasoning for the votes. Though, I guess that's why the train dispersed so quickly as well. Maybe we should be cautious about those who so quickly voted and then unvoted for Fifth? Could be elims just looking for an easy lynch then backing off under the pressure. 
18. Devotary of Spontaneity: Normally I'd be very suspicious of their vote for Silberfarben based on the timing of it (I think they broke the tie between Pyro and Silb?), but I Devotary is experienced enough that I think she'd be more cautious about saving a teammate so blatantly like that on only D1. The only scenario I could really see an elim!Devotary/elim!Pyro team is if the team is smaller than I would otherwise assume, so every elim's life really matters a lot. For now though, I'm leaning village on Devotary because I don't think elim!Devotary would've voted when and how she did.
19. Xinoehp512 - Skaa
20. StrikerEZ: Obviously not an elim.
21. Lahilt: I don't really have any thoughts about them at all. I know they've posted, it just didn't leave an impression on me.
22. Sparkrunner: I don't think they've posted at all. @Sparkrunner

Well, this took me a lot longer than I expected. I hope some of this made sense, because I wrote it over the course of about an hour and 45 minutes.

Edited June 22, 2020 by StrikerEZ

[Mat he/him]

That. That’s the kind of analysis I wish I could do lol. I figured Ventyl might just be messing around. 

 
For TJ, he’s just staying quiet, something generally NAI depending on the circumstances but his regular playstyle is full-blown analyzation. I don’t really read elim from his posts, though. 
 

[+Lotus she/her]

I’m a little suspicious of Straw, just because they seemed to be a little too opposed to people doing random voting. It seemed like maybe they were covering up suspicious by drawing suspicion to people who were randomly voting.

 

As for the fact that we are in the Mistborn world after all...

 

-

Feather wasn’t really upset at the news that Pelran had died. The man was polite, but always got ash all over the suits she carefully made. Although, maybe that dang crew leader would use him as an excuse to not get her pay on time. Just because her businesses had been declining didn’t mean she would stand for late pay!

Still, as she opened up the door to the hideout, she worried. And not just about the dress she needed to work on for Lady Amalia. She could, of course, escape from the city, although that would mean leaving her clientele behind.

As a merchant, she normally didn’t worry much about the troubles that plagued the lower skaa. But it worried her.

[Shard of Reading he/him]

2 minutes ago, MysticLotus said:

I’m a little suspicious of Straw, just because they seemed to be a little too opposed to people doing random voting.

That's just how some people play. They don't like poke votes.