Quick Fix 45: To Set an Example

[Lahilt he/him]

7 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Like I said I don't have, like any solid suspicions at all so really- at least for me- this particular C1 lynch is an info lynch. Based on Pyro's alignment we can glean info on the later votes on him. That being said, really anyone we lynch would give us similar info so if you find a better alternative based on more AI criteria that would be preferred.

In other news I think it's interesting how quickly the votes on Fifth fell away.

Hmm. Rollover, I believe, is in 3 hours and 40 minutes. 

Thanks. I will leave my vote for now and hopefully more time to analyze later.

[Straw he/him]

Alright, so I'm breaking this up into two sections. The first part is my reads, the second section is questions for people and my thoughts on possible vote trains. I'm also removing my null reads from the list for now.

Gears (mild village)

They still have that early post cred from me, and I liked their analysis of the Fifth train. One thing I found interesting about their reads was how they only had one village read, and all the rest were null or elim reads.

The_Truthwatcher (very mild elim)

They said they don't have enough info to make suspicions. I'm curious what info they'd need.

Vapor (moderate elim)

They voted on me and Fifth with no explanation at all, and then voted on Pyro with minimal explanation. Interestly, they attacked Pyro for retracting for little reason, despite them having done the exact same thing twice. I really want to give them slack for being new, but their vote changes are very suspicious. I'm curious to see how they'll develop over the rest of the game. This read is one of the ones I'm more uncertain about.

Lahilt (very mild elim)

They voted on Matrim and didn't explain why.

Matrim's Dice (mild village)

I liked their progression on Truthwatcher, where they were willing to give Truthwatcher slack for being new. Generally willing to reconsider, which I like.

TJ Shade (mild village)

I enjoyed their steadiness and willingness to go back and explain their thoughts. I'd like some solid reads from them though.

Eternum (moderate village)

Their reads seem balanced and fair, and they seem to be approaching the thread with an open mindset, which I like. They didn't try to make excuses for if their reads were wrong, which was good. I also liked their thoughts on Vapor.

Frozen Mint (mild village)

I liked their reads overall, even if I disagree on Matrim. Their post about not hopping on trains and wanting Fifth to respond seemed good. I also liked their retraction on Gears.

Devotary of Spontaneity (very mild village)

Their willingness to go against the grain and consider Pyro being village was good.

Fifth Scholar (very mild elim)

Still wondering where their responses are? I still find them weird, but I think they're a bit more village on a reread. Curious to see them post again.

Lord_Silberfarben (mild elim)

Their tinfoil on Fifth/Xino was odd, even if they say that they do that often. It feels like a way to have an easy excuse ready.

The Young Pyromancer (mild elim)

Their vote on Fifth and subsequent retraction was very annoying. I also highly dislike their appeal to emotion.

[|TJ| he/him]

16 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

In other news I think it's interesting how quickly the votes on Fifth fell away.

Thinking about it, Straw (kind of) scared away the voters   Specifically, Pyro and Vapor, then retracted it himself. Devotary then retracted their vote stating they got enough information from the derailment of the train (what useful info, if I may ask @Devotary of Spontaneity?). All this could be NAI but I can see a very slight possibility of some combination of Fifth, Devotary and Straw being elims. 

Edit: Ninja'd by Straw 

Edited June 21, 2020 by TJ Shade

[Eternum he/him]

5 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

Actually, going along other player's analysis is NAI for Pyro (from what I've seen so far). I'm not happy because the players are voting for him simply because he added to the train. Elim bandwagoning would be too easy to catch isn't it? Doubt an elim would try that in the first cycle when they can go under the radar by voting for someone with much less number of votes. I'd still look for a better alternative. 

If you want analysis on Pyro, I'll reiterate my thought process here: Pyro comes in, follows Straw's vote without any personal opinion involved. I voted him here because I find that a terrible idea and wanted to get some actual reasoning out of him. He then proceeds to retract the vote after being called out, claiming that there was no suspicion on Fifth and he wanted to use his vote to place more pressure on him. At this point, the majority was still voting on Fifth, so logically he would've left the vote where it was, especially if he wanted to pressure Fifth with it. For some reason, he panicked and did not. Here's where I decided to keep my vote on him. So far, he's the person I'm most suspicious of, and his lack of an attempt at defending himself makes it worse. This isn't the kind of situation where a villager should be alright with getting lynched.

 

[Straw he/him]

5 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

Thinking about it, Straw (kind of) scared away the voters   Specifically, Pyro and Vapor, then retracted it himself. Devotary then retracted their vote stating they got enough information from the derailment of the train (what useful info, if I may ask @Devotary of Spontaneity?). All this could be NAI but I can see a very slight possibility of some combination of Fifth, Devotary and Straw being elims. 

Edit: Ninja'd by Straw 

My vote on Fifth wasn't useful, since he obviously wasn't around. As to me scaring them off, they had flimsy reasoning.  I don't really think a full train on Fifth would ever have been valuable, since Fifth wasn't around to argue. I think it's preferable to keep discussion on active players and have multiple competing vote trains.

[Vapor she/her]

6 minutes ago, Straw said:

Vapor (moderate elim)

They voted on me and Fifth with no explanation at all, and then voted on Pyro with minimal explanation. Interestly, they attacked Pyro for retracting for little reason, despite them having done the exact same thing twice. I really want to give them slack for being new, but their vote changes are very suspicious. I'm curious to see how they'll develop over the rest of the game. This read is one of the ones I'm more uncertain about.

I defenitely agree with this. I was being suspicious.  I'm just going to leave it at that. I know that whatever I say could be used for me or against me, so I'm going to let you guys decide.

[Mat he/him]

1 minute ago, Vapor said:

I defenitely agree with this. I was being suspicious.  I'm just going to leave it at that. I know that whatever I say could be used for me or against me, so I'm going to let you guys decide.

You... agree with an elim read on you. Uhhhhhhhhhh not sure how I feel about that.

[Vapor she/her]

I don't agree with the read, just the suspiciousness.

 

Is that a word?

[Straw he/him]

@Gears In your post, your only village read was on me. Why do you think you have so few village reads? Also, you said you prefered Pyro over Fifth. While I agree, what makes you prefer Pyro over Fifth?

@The_Truthwatcher While I know you said you wouldn't be on this cycle, here's a question you can answer whenever. You said that you couldn't come up with suspicions, since there wasn't enough info. In your opinion, what info is needed to suspect people?

@Vapor While you are currently suspicious, staying silent is not the way to fix that. If you want to be read as village, try to participate in the discussion in a helpful way, so other people can have reason to improve their read on you. Here are some questions for you:

-What are your current reads on people? Why?

-Do you particularly agree or disagree with any of my reads?

-If you had to kill one person at the moment, who would you kill?

-You voted Pyro for retracting without giving a good reason. However, you did the same thing twice. Any comment on this? What were you thinking at that moment?

@Lahilt What do you think is suspicious about Matrim? It might be hard to point something out if it's just a gut read, but is there any post in particular that you think is suspicious?

Now, since there are three hours left in the cycle, it's worth beginning the process of consolidating votes. Having more pressure on several people is better than having little pressure on many people.

First of all, I'd rather not vote out any of the players who are completely new this game. I'd prefer to give them some time to get used to the game, particularly since new players can sound suspicious at first. I'd also rather not remove any of the people who haven't posted yet. For that matter, there are several people who have only posted once, and I'd rather not remove any of them either. Fifth's post was long enough to count as multiple, but I'd rather not remove him until I get a response. I have fairly good reads on me, Eternum, Matrim, TJ, and Mint. That leaves a pool of these people:

Devotary of Spontaneity
Lahilt
Lord_Silberfarben
TheYoungPyromancer
Xinoehp512

Any thoughts on this? I'll move my vote off of Vapor soon, in favor of someone else.

Edited June 21, 2020 by Straw
removed line at top

[Mat he/him]

21 minutes ago, Vapor said:

I don't agree with the read, just the suspiciousness.

 

Is that a word?

Hmm. Like Straw, I would like to give you the benefit of the doubt as a new player but that is getting increasingly difficult.

Doesn't matter. It is now.

I'll go ahead and ping the people who haven't voted: @Ashbringer @Shard of Reading @Mist @The Young Pyromancer @Experience @Frozen Mint @Ventyl @Devotary of Spontaneity @Sparkrunner (That's a lot of pings)

Ninja'd by Straw 

Edit: Going on a drive/walk with my fam for Father's Day. Probably won't be back before rollover, if I manage it will be in the last bit. Vote count:

• Pyro (4) - Eternum, Matrim, Gears, Vapor   
• Straw (2) - Fifth, Mystic  
• Silber (2) - Truthwatcher, TJ  
• Lahilt (1) - Xino 
• Eternum (1) - Striker   
• Fifth (1) - Silber 
• Vapor (1) - Straw   
• Matrim (1) - Lahilt   

Edited June 21, 2020 by Matrim's Dice

[Vapor she/her]

10 minutes ago, Straw said:

@Gears In your post, your only village read was on me. Why do you think you have so few village reads? Also, you said you prefered Pyro over Fifth. While I agree, what makes you prefer Pyro over Fifth?

@The_Truthwatcher

@Vapor While you are currently suspicious, staying silent is not the way to fix that. If you want to be read as village, try to participate in the discussion in a helpful way, so other people can have reason to improve their read on you. Here are some questions for you:

-What are your current reads on people? Why?

-Do you particularly agree or disagree with any of my reads?

-If you had to kill one person at the moment, who would you kill?

-You voted Pyro for retracting without giving a good reason. However, you did the same thing twice. Any comment on this? What were you thinking at that moment?

@Lahilt What do you think is suspicious about Matrim? It might be hard to point something out if it's just a gut read, but is there any post in particular that you think is suspicious?

Now, since there are three hours left in the cycle, it's worth beginning the process of consolidating votes. Having more pressure on several people is better than having little pressure on many people.

First of all, I'd rather not vote out any of the players who are completely new this game. I'd prefer to give them some time to get used to the game, particularly since new players can sound suspicious at first. I'd also rather not remove any of the people who haven't posted yet. For that matter, there are several people who have only posted once, and I'd rather not remove any of them either. Fifth's post was long enough to count as multiple, but I'd rather not remove him until I get a response. I have fairly good reads on me, Eternum, Matrim, TJ, and Mint. That leaves a pool of these people:

Devotary of Spontaneity
Lahilt
Lord_Silberfarben
TheYoungPyromancer
Xinoehp512

Any thoughts on this? I'll move my vote off of Vapor soon, in favor of someone else.

1. I don't have very many reads. Right now, I'm figuring it out.

2. Not really

3. Honestly, I'm not sure at all. I don't really want to have to kill anyone without enough evidence. The only reason I voted was so that I would be able to stay in longer. Maybe I should vote someone else who is less likely to die when we finish.

4. I'm not sure what I was thinking. I didn't really think about it, I just went with what the others were doing, which now I realize wasn't a very good idea. 

Should I change my vote?

[|TJ| he/him]

40 minutes ago, Eternum said:

If you want analysis on Pyro, I'll reiterate my thought process here: Pyro comes in, follows Straw's vote without any personal opinion involved. I voted him here because I find that a terrible idea and wanted to get some actual reasoning out of him. He then proceeds to retract the vote after being called out, claiming that there was no suspicion on Fifth and he wanted to use his vote to place more pressure on him. At this point, the majority was still voting on Fifth, so logically he would've left the vote where it was, especially if he wanted to pressure Fifth with it. For some reason, he panicked and did not. Here's where I decided to keep my vote on him. So far, he's the person I'm most suspicious of, and his lack of an attempt at defending himself makes it worse. This isn't the kind of situation where a villager should be alright with getting lynched.

Your thoughts are perfectly reasonable. But to be honest, that's their play style. They vote and retract votes from seemingly nowhere. They are very confusing to read at times, and thrive in chaotic situations. It's not your fault you find it elim-y. It would generally be elim-y. But that's just the way they play. They can still definitely be an eliminator, but their actions this cycle is NAI for them. 

38 minutes ago, Straw said:

My vote on Fifth wasn't useful, since he obviously wasn't around. As to me scaring them off, they had flimsy reasoning.  I don't really think a full train on Fifth would ever have been valuable, since Fifth wasn't around to argue. I think it's preferable to keep discussion on active players and have multiple competing vote trains.

Well, can't fault you for scaring them away, I suppose xD 

And I agree. That's why I didn't join the train. 

22 minutes ago, Straw said:

Devotary of Spontaneity
Lahilt
Lord_Silberfarben
TheYoungPyromancer
Xinoehp512

I already have a vote on Lord Sil. As said, if they believed a Xino-Fifth team, why did they vote for Fifth? I think I'd be fine with xino as well. Devotary, I'd like to see more from them. Not a C1 lynch. (Also I feel bad about lynching players early who also got killed very early in the previous game. When does all the ruthlessness come in? ) Would like to see more of Lahilt as well. Pyro is leading the lynch and I'm not adding to the train. I don't really mind lynching him, but I've got a hunch he'll flip village. I'm comfortable with my vote on Lord Sil. They have two votes on them and it looks like a potential alternative.

6 minutes ago, Vapor said:

Should I change my vote?

Vapor, try to go through the thread once more if you can. Try to figure out anything fishy or something that doesn't seem right, then try to reason out why it doesn't seem right. It might be difficult since it's C1, but give it a try nonetheless. Look at Straw's analysis posts and how he makes reads and the reason he gives for his reads. That might help

Edited June 21, 2020 by TJ Shade

[Gears]

24 minutes ago, Straw said:

@Gears In your post, your only village read was on me. Why do you think you have so few village reads? Also, you said you prefered Pyro over Fifth. While I agree, what makes you prefer Pyro over Fifth?

I have so few village reads because being an individual with intelligent, rational reads does not preclude one from being an elim. When I label someone as village, I want to be more than moderately certain. The people who I'm more inclined to trust are Frozen Mist and Eternum, simply because they have been putting forth meaningful analysis. I prefer Pyro over Fifth because I see no reason to lynch Fifth while Pyro has engaged in shifty behavior. Vapor has also been very suspicious, but I am willing to cut them some slack as they are new. 

[Straw he/him]

12 minutes ago, Gears said:

I have so few village reads because being an individual with intelligent, rational reads does not preclude one from being an elim. When I label someone as village, I want to be more than moderately certain. The people who I'm more inclined to trust are Frozen Mist and Eternum, simply because they have been putting forth meaningful analysis. I prefer Pyro over Fifth because I see no reason to lynch Fifth while Pyro has engaged in shifty behavior. Vapor has also been very suspicious, but I am willing to cut them some slack as they are new. 

Thanks for giving some other village reads!

Also, why do you want to be more than moderately certain on village people, but not elims? Even if you're not right, it's still nice to be able to have it, both to prompt discussion and to give us a better grip on how you're feeling about people.

Also, just throwing something out there for everyone: Make sure to clear people, even if it's just for a brief bit. Taking out your village reads and looking at the remaining pool allows you to focus on the more suspicious people who you're more likely to vote on. Plus, while it's good to reconsider, paranoia is not productive.

29 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

I already have a vote on Lord Sil. As said, if they believed a Xino-Fifth team, why did they vote for Fifth? I think I'd be fine with xino as well. Devotary, I'd like to see more from them. Not a C1 lynch. (Also I feel bad about lynching players early who also got killed very early in the previous game. When does all the ruthlessness come in? ) Would like to see more of Lahilt as well. Pyro is leading the lynch and I'm not adding to the train. I don't really mind lynching him, but I've got a hunch he'll flip village. I'm comfortable with my vote on Lord Sil. They have two votes on them and it looks like a potential alternative.

Hmm, I'll take a closer look at Sil. Anyone you'd like to see added or removed from my pool of possible votes?

[|TJ| he/him]

12 minutes ago, Straw said:

Hmm, I'll take a closer look at Sil. Anyone you'd like to see added or removed from my pool of possible votes?

Added? No. I agree Mint and Eternum were largely helpful, and Gears seems village as well. As I said before I don't want to lynch new or returning players in C1. Removed (if you're talking about just this cycle), then Devotary and Lahilt. 

Rollover time is really weird for me and I've lost a considerable amount of my sleeping time, so I'm off for the cycle. I don't find myself good in Cycle 1 analysis, and well the LG drained a large amount of my time. I'll try to be more helpful in the coming cycles if I survive. 

Edited June 21, 2020 by TJ Shade

[Straw he/him]

4 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

Added? No. I agree Mint and Eternum were largely helpful, and Gears seems village as well. As I said before I don't want to lynch new or returning players in C1. Removed (if you're talking about just this cycle), then Devotary and Lahilt. 

Rollover time is really weird for me and I've lost a considerable amount of my sleeping time, so I'm off for the cycle. I don't find myself good in Cycle 1 analysis, and well the LG drained a large amount of my time. I'll try to be more helpful in the coming cycles if I survive. 

Mm, yeah I was leaning against Devotary and Lahilt.

Night. Don't worry, you've been plenty helpful.

[Ashbringer he/him]

Shoot, I need to catch up on this. Give me a second to see where this Pyro train came from. Will (hopefully) edit.

 

[Straw he/him]

Sorry for the double post, but I'm voting.

7 hours ago, Lord_Silberfarben said:

hmm...

tinfoil really describes how i play mafia.

also paranoia.

i think there were some traumas in my earlier games, and i cant trust anyone.

 

like your vote on fifth scholar...

i understand it is only to provoke discussion...

but my tinfoil reaction is that you are chiming in into an already running vote, and adding lots of your own reasoning, which is actually mostly not really weighty.

I understand this is day one, and there is not much to go on, like my own vote on fifth scholar, not that much reasoning, just a gut read on some of their comments.

Taking a look at this post, it really is unhelpful. He doesn't really explain much about his vote, and seems to be setting up tinfoil/paranoia as an excuse if his vote is wrong. It feels like he should be much more confident if he was willing to think that a Fifth/Xino team was reasonable that early on? His "I can't trust anyone" thing also feels like he's preemptively making excuses for things. His "tinfoil reaction" to my vote really doesn't make sense either? He seems to view me adding lots of reasoning as a bad thing, which I find odd. He does say that it's mostly not weighty, but doesn't push back much. Overall seems very wishy washy, and I'm happy to vote for him at the moment.

Vapor. Silber.

Taking a look at the pool I set out, I think I'd be good with removing Devotary and Lahilt for now, leaving Silber, Xino, and Pyro as possible targets. Out of those, I currently feel best about voting on Silber. I can always come back and look at Pyro again, and hopefully Pyro will be a bit more helpful.

[Gears]

23 minutes ago, Straw said:

Also, why do you want to be more than moderately certain on village people, but not elims? Even if you're not right, it's still nice to be able to have it, both to prompt discussion and to give us a better grip on how you're feeling about people.

If someone is suspected, they cannot do active harm and can quickly regain trust by being an active player. If someone is trusted, they can do a great deal of harm by misleading the village, and one is loath to vote on a trusted individual. Trust should be reserved for those who have proven themselves and suspicion should be spread widely. I understand your point, but I don't want to write someone off as safe and become blind to their faults. 

I personally would be willing to remove xino from the vote pool, as they seem far less suspicious than Silber or Pyro. 

[Straw he/him]

3 minutes ago, Gears said:

If someone is suspected, they cannot do active harm and can quickly regain trust by being an active player. If someone is trusted, they can do a great deal of harm by misleading the village, and one is loath to vote on a trusted individual. Trust should be reserved for those who have proven themselves and suspicion should be spread widely. I understand your point, but I don't want to write someone off as safe and become blind to their faults. 

I personally would be willing to remove xino from the vote pool, as they seem far less suspicious than Silber or Pyro. 

Yeah, it seems like we just inherently have different styles for that.

Yeah, Xino seems somewhat less suspicious. Any thoughts on Silber at the moment?

[Gears]

Just now, Straw said:

Yeah, it seems like we just inherently have different styles for that.

Yeah, Xino seems somewhat less suspicious. Any thoughts on Silber at the moment?

If Silber was an elim, I would hope that they would peer review everything before posting. If Silber didn't check in with their teammates before posting a tinfoil theory, then surely Silber's teammates would tell Silber to offer a better defense to salvage the best of a bad situation. This leads me to believe that Silber is a paranoid villager who is bad at making excuses.

[Eternum he/him]

12 minutes ago, Gears said:

If Silber was an elim, I would hope that they would peer review everything before posting. If Silber didn't check in with their teammates before posting a tinfoil theory, then surely Silber's teammates would tell Silber to offer a better defense to salvage the best of a bad situation. This leads me to believe that Silber is a paranoid villager who is bad at making excuses.

That's a fair point, I suppose, but offering up excuses for essentially baseless claims isn't a very village thing. Offering up excuses in general, honestly. As a villager, you want to offer your reasoning and let people build off of it, not make claims and then prepare excuses just in case you're called out for them.

EDIT: I don't particularly like Silber, but I'll keep my vote on Pyro for now. If you guys want Silber lynched, though, I'm fine with that.

Edited June 21, 2020 by Eternum

[Mint11 she/her]

Here to place my vote before the cycle is up. I kind of want to put pressure on xino for informational purposes but voting on them doesn't seem useful given the current tally. Between Pyro, Silber, and Straw, I find Silber the most suspicious.

[Ashbringer he/him]

Gah, sorry. I have to leave for somewhere so I can’t really do the analysis I wanted to. 

That being said, the lynch is between Pyro with 4 votes, Silber with 3, and Straw with two. I don’t want to lynch Straw because he seems to be doing good analysis, but as far as I can tell from skimming the main suspicion of Pyro is that he hasn’t been active, which I can understand with LG66 being in the endgame.

That leaves Silber. If making a tie is a bad idea, than I’ll move somewhere else.

Aaaaaand ninja’d by Mint. Sigh. I don’t want to be a tiebreaker. I’ll vote Experience because I can’t tell when the cycle will end, but I’ll probably move it.

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

Re: TJ, my chaos serves a purpose. All my actions have a reason, even if they're stupid  I will usually provide explanation on request.

Thinking of voting on Siber, but this shift away from me does seem kinda weird. Eh, might as well.

Silber.