Long Game 66: A Struggle for Power

[Guest Coda]

Sorry, I somehow missed that.

[Magestar he/him]

And with that I'm out.  I'll probably post sometime tomorrow in the night cycle, but considering how long my shift is tomorrow, IDK how active I'll be for that.  I'll definitely be active next day cycle, though.

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

Okay, IluvHatz.

From the wording, I don't think a tie lynches any random player, for the record.

[Mist she/her]

Araris stated that both kandra and elims will affect reads and votes. He mentions his philosophy of stab voting. He has elim reads on Experience, Coda, Kynedath, and Magestar, and village reads on Reading and Karnage. He states that role analysis isn’t helpful. He’s trying to encourage dialogue with his votes. This seems to be normal for him.

Ashbringer is worried about the kandra and would be suspicious of anyone who survives with no reason. The kandra could be very different from what we think. Sliders can be very powerful. Can you get items through RNG with Chromium? I’m worried that the kandra will be unexpected. You can’t choose who gets the medallion. More concerned about elims than kandra.

Coda is up for the lynch. Post for money before the post cap. He posts Firesoul odds. Is he a Firesoul? He had a calculator and wanted to contribute. He doesn’t seem suspicious.

ILuvHats hasn’t posted yet on the game.

Karnage is almost up for the lynch. He posted once. He said he’ll be busy. Elim numbers, votes Araris. Lying is a good way to catch elims. Araris is pretty experienced. This seems legitimate, and he contributed, despite business.

Vote Tally

Karnage (3): Coda, DrakeMarshall, xinoehp512, 

Coda (3): Araris Valerian, Experience, Ventyl

ILuvHats (3): The Young Pyromancer, ILuvHats, DrakeMarshall

Araris Valerian (2): Karnage, Matrim's_Dice

Ashbringer (2): Lahilt, Magestar

Experience (1): Elandera

Matrim's_Dice (1): The_God_King

Mist (1): Shard of Reading

Magestar (1): TJ Shade

The_God_King (1): Elkanah

I agree that the most posts award should be given to people with quality posts, as quantity but not quality encourages almost-spam.

@StrikerEZ , does a tie lynch a random player or a random player from the tie?

Of the three people with 3 votes, I’d prefer to lynch ILuvHatz. They have not contributed to the game at all.

Edited June 6, 2020 by Mist
Forgot to @ Striker

[Karnage]

I really don't have much time to post but a tie is not going to help us. Araris, ILUVHATZ

[StrikerEZ he/him]

The turn is over!

[|TJ| he/him]

Wow y'all just.. flipped on Hatz in just half a page? 

That would be slightly elim behaviour if Hats flips village. You could have done that to avoid a tie and avoid having to use vote manipulation to tip the vote towards a villager, basically avoiding detection by not using vote manipulation.

[StrikerEZ he/him]

Coda stood in the crowd as the crowd began to level accusations at them of being a secret Loyalist. The accusations were absolutely false, of course, but the mind of a mob is a foul thing, and once its made up its mind, it is very hard to change it. Though, a few valiant souls did attempt to change the mob's mind to go after Villin, it ultimately did not prevail.

The crowd began to pummel Coda, and they began to fight back. It was of little use, they quickly realized, so they began pushing people away to try and escape the crowd. Several people managed to hit them on the head, stomach, and hands, but they managed to break free.

For a moment, Coda thought they might yet survive. Then a stray coin shot from the crowd and tore through their chest. The crowd quickly swarmed around them to hear their dying words. With blood pouring from their lips, they let out their last words. "Long live the People's Republic."

As Coda's blood pours from the hole in their chest and their life fades from their eyes, the crowd begins to disperse. They were wrong, and an innocent soldier now lay dead in the middle of the room. Some of Darson's men came to take the body away as the others all went to different rooms in the building to spend the night. Many feared they would not sleep well that night. Or that it might be their last time to sleep

---

Coda has been lynched! They were a PRE Operative Seeker and Hemalurgist!

Coda (3): Araris Valerian, Experience, Ventyl
ILuvHats (3): Ashbringer, DrakeMarshall, Mist, The Young Pyromancer
Ashbringer (2): Lahilt, Magestar
Karnage (2): Coda, xinoehp512
Araris Valerian (1): Karnage, Matrim's_Dice
Experience (1): Elandera
Magestar (1): TJ Shade
Matrim's_Dice (1): The_God_King
Mist (0): Shard of Reading
The_God_King (1): Elkanah

 

PMs are still open! Make sure I am in them, along with Young Bard and Fifth Scholar. There will not be a lynch this turn. Items are available in the black market.

This turn will end on Saturday, June 5th, at 9 pm CDT, and the next turn will be posted at 10 pm CDT.

As a reminder, make sure to remember not to double post. Also, the most posts in the turn award has been changed to most posts with at least 200 words. 

Also, make sure to take note of the change to the prices of items!

GM PMs will be sent out shortly, but I figured I should at least send this out. Sorry for the delay. Had some issues with the spreadsheet.

Black Market

Spoiler

• Medallion: 6 available (45 boxings)
• Charged Spike: 5 available (65 boxings)
• Uncharged Spike: 2 available (90 boxings)
• Dagger: 2 available (80 boxings)
• Bulletproof Vest: 4 available (35 boxings)
• Steel Trap: 5 available (25 boxings)
• Lerasium Alloy: 1 available (115 boxings)

Player List

Spoiler

1. @Karnage - Lance Neverwatch 
2. @Elandera
3. @Elkanah 
4. @The Young Pyromancer - Pyria Young
5. @Shard of Reading
6. @Experience - Shard
7. @Lahilt - Lahlit
8. @Ventyl - Lafay Etteax
9. Coda PRE Operative Seeker and Hemalurgist
10. @Matrim's_Dice - Lord Cauthon
11. @TJ Shade - TJ Shade
12. @Emi - Lorinne
13. @xinoehp512
14. @ILuvHats - Villin
15. @Mist - Lumen
16. @DrakeMarshall - Lorena Blackburn
17. @Araris Valerian - Araris Valerian
18. @Devotary of Spontaneity - Adomert
19. @Kynedath
20. @Walin - Lerin
21. @Ashbringer - Faleast
22. @The_God_King
23. @Magestar - Reginald Kettis

 

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

NOO! CODA!!!!

[Ashbringer he/him]

12 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

Coda (3): Araris Valerian, Experience, Ventyl 
ILuvHats (3): Ashbringer, DrakeMarshall, Mist, The Young Pyromancer

 

Um... ILuvHatz has 4 names for votes? Which one is wrong, the number or the names?

[|TJ| he/him]

2 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Um... ILuvHatz has 4 names for votes? Which one is wrong, the number or the names?

It means one of the votes has been soothed off. 

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

Well that's interesting.

[Ashbringer he/him]

Huh. I thought you could tell which person’s vote got Soothed.

Vote Tally (Copy-Pasted from Mist, the last one to post it, changes underlined):

 

Karnage (3): Coda, DrakeMarshall, xinoehp512, 

Coda (3): Araris Valerian, Experience, Ventyl

ILuvHats (5): The Young Pyromancer, ILuvHats, DrakeMarshall, Karnage, Mist

Araris Valerian (1): Matrim's_Dice

Ashbringer (2): Lahilt, Magestar

Experience (1): Elandera

Matrim's_Dice (1): The_God_King

Mist (1): Shard of Reading

Magestar (1): TJ Shade

The_God_King (1): Elkanah

—

Looks like Experience and Drake swapped somehow and Karnage’s vote got moved back to Araris, plus the Soothing on ILuvHatz’s vote. And someone soothed the vote on Mist?

Maybe Karnage’s post was too late to count. But something’s odd here. I guess someone really wanted to save Hatz.

Edited June 6, 2020 by Ashbringer

[StrikerEZ he/him]

Okay, all PMs should be sent out. If they aren't, I will fix it when I wake up tomorrow.

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

NOOOOO PRESIDENT SHOUTY-SHOUT!!!! We had a fun PM while it lasted  I will try to honor your request.

I am also sad that we lost somebody with such a nice synergy of abilities. The combination of knowing people's roles and being able to kill somebody and steal their role is obviously fantastic, even if it seems the hemalurgist doesn't get to keep the charged spike.

Some vote manipulating action going down, huh? Although the creation of a tie is not the worst goal to have, I am still curious why. If it wasn't the result of Feruchemy, and it was a villager who intervened, I kind of want to ask them to claim their actions, because I would not really expect a villager who wasn't strongly invested in the lynch to intervene.

@Magestar sorry I didn't see that you @ me last cycle, I was in a rush to get my vote cast and go do something else IRL. I might have considered it otherwise.

Anyway there isn't a lynch discussion this cycle but there can still be discussion, especially because there are opportunities to make $$$boxings, and if you are even half as greedy as I am that's reason enough.

[|TJ| he/him]

2 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

But something’s odd here.

Vote count is odd too. Hatz did NOT vote for himself. Drake's vote is in two places. Give me a bit to post the correct votes before manipulation.

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

My tally for last cycle is:

Vote Tally
ILuvHats (4): Ashbringer, DrakeMarshall, Karnage, Mist
Coda (3): Araris Valerian, Experience, Ventyl
Karnage (2): Coda, xinoehp512
Ashbringer (2): Lahilt, Magestar
Araris Valerian (1): Matrim's_Dice
Experience (1): Elandera
Matrim's_Dice (1): The_God_King
Mist (1): Shard of Reading
Magestar (1): TJ Shade
The_God_King (1): Elkanah

[Elandera she/her]

As has been pointed out, there are several vote manipulations. I doubt there was anything there intentionally to keep Hats alive, as they haven't been around much. It could be one of the last-minute vote changes had been on someone else who was the intended target of soothing. 

I'm on mobile again (forgot my laptop charger), so I won't really be breaking the whole thing down.

Hats Votes: One of Ash, Drake, Pyro or Mist were soothed, a certain kind of Feruchemist, or a rioter that targeted someone else. I suspect the first, and probably soothed for the reasons I put in my first paragraph. 

Araris Votes: One of Karnage or Matrim was also soothed, a rioter, etc. This one I find more interesting, as Araris wasn't really a top candidate for the lynch except in the middle of the turn. 

Mist Vote: Shard's vote was also manipulated. This is most likely the result of self-soothing through Feruchemy, or someone who was over protective of Mist and not around to see votes move away. 

[Ashbringer he/him]

The interesting thing is, Karnage’s vote wasn’t Soothed, it was moved - BACK to Araris. If a Rioter wanted to save Hatz, why not move the vote to Coda, which would tie it without the Soothing and guaruntee Coda’s death with it? 

If a Soother and Rioter worked together to TIE the vote instead of force it, that would suggest two Elim manipulators - and probably soft clear Hatz, maybe.

@DrakeMarshall you need Pyro’s vote on Hatz. Otherwise it’s in better shape then mine/Mist’s.

Signing off for tonight. Tomorrow I can join on my computer and hopefully do some actual people analysis. It’s hard to scroll through so many posts on mobile.

[StrikerEZ he/him]

The way the vote tally works for this game is that the numbers are changed to reflect any vote manipulation. The names are not changed. Karnage's vote is there because his last post was after the turn ended. In general, if you see a name or lack thereof where you aren't expecting it, it's because either you or the GM made a mistake.

[|TJ| he/him]

@StrikerEZ, So was the Karnage vote considered by you or not? 

Coming to the vote manip, Araris was tied at 3 votes at one point, so a vote could have been soothed just to be careful. 

Hatz' vote soothing is interesting because Drake and Pyro almost always voted as a duo, especially when the voting was about to close. If Pyro would move his vote, Drake would as well and vice versa. As some point, both were voting on Matrim, Karnage (both were leading the vote at the point) and in the end Hatz. So very slight elim read on Matrim or Karnage. Karnage actually had 5 votes at one point and there was mass exodus with Ashbringer, Pyro and Drake moving their votes to Hatz. 1+ elim/s among them?

The reason Ashbringer gave to moving the vote to Hatz is bizzarre. He claimed self-preservation but at the point of moving his vote Karnage had 4 votes (including his) and Hatz had only 1 vote (Pyro). Ashbringer himself had 2 votes. His vote was perfectly fine on Karnage if he wanted to save himself. If anything, he made himself more vulnerable by moving it to Hatz. Sure, there's evidence of in-thread collusion. Pyro wanted to move Hatz into the tie zone.  Ash said he'd move if someone else moves. But still he couldn't have known that other votes would follow. After his vote, Drake, Mist and Karnage (?) voted as well. A villager in a precarious position would not put themselves in danger with no assurance of others' votes. Seems like he knew the votes were coming.

I read Magestar as slightly village. He broke the Coda-Karnage tie by removing a vote off Coda. But then again, he has fooled 19 people at  once, so I'm not so sure 

EDIT:

4 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

This turn will end on Saturday, June 5th, at 9 pm CDT, and the next turn will be posted at 10 pm CDT.

 

This doesn't look right, Chief.

Edited June 6, 2020 by TJ Shade

[Magestar he/him]

4 hours ago, Elandera said:

As has been pointed out, there are several vote manipulations. I doubt there was anything there intentionally to keep Hats alive, as they haven't been around much. It could be one of the last-minute vote changes had been on someone else who was the intended target of soothing. 

I'm on mobile again (forgot my laptop charger), so I won't really be breaking the whole thing down.

Hats Votes: One of Ash, Drake, Pyro or Mist were soothed, a certain kind of Feruchemist, or a rioter that targeted someone else. I suspect the first, and probably soothed for the reasons I put in my first paragraph. 

Araris Votes: One of Karnage or Matrim was also soothed, a rioter, etc. This one I find more interesting, as Araris wasn't really a top candidate for the lynch except in the middle of the turn. 

Mist Vote: Shard's vote was also manipulated. This is most likely the result of self-soothing through Feruchemy, or someone who was over protective of Mist and not around to see votes move away. 

We also know we have at least three people who got soothed/used a feruchemical ability/rioted.  We could also possibly have an additional rioter, who's vote move was nullified by a soother.  The shear number of roles in the game that could cause vote removal makes it difficult to say for certain what's going on.  

@Karnage, @Matrim's_Dice, @Shard of Reading, did any of you use abilities yourself that caused your votes to be removed?  I'm not asking for role reveals or anything, I'm just curious if any of you would be willing to share.  Seems like a fairly safe bit of information to share, although if you'd rather not that's also fine.

If there had been any more vote manipulation, I'd say I was suspicious of the people who voted on Hats.  Piling on a certain person with the knowledge another would get lynched seems like a good way to draw attention to someone.  I'm not saying Hats is an Elim; in fact, I think it would be far more likely that Hats is a villager who the Elims are trying to draw attention to.  It's possible there's a name for this sort of gambit, but I don't recall it off the top of my head.

I'll try and get some more thoughts up later, but like I said last cycle I'll probably be pretty busy this cycle.  Hopefully it doesn't get as full as last cycle.   

[|TJ| he/him]

8 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Although the creation of a tie is not the worst goal to have, I am still curious why.

Kinda contradictory seeing how you tried to do the same thing during voting, don't you think?

[Ookla-son-son-Ventyl]

Alright, after reading the rules, I think I’ve found every role that could possibly be a vote manipulation.

1. Soother
2. Rioter
3. Pulser (If it can affect votes that is)
4. Leecher (If it can affect votes that is)
5. Sparker (Storing could remove a vote)
6. Pinnacle (Not so much a manipulation, could lead to higher vote counts on somebody though.)
7. Connector (Cancels your vote, makes it looked like it was Soothed)

Edited June 6, 2020 by Ventyl

[|TJ| he/him]

34 minutes ago, Ventyl said:

5. Sparker (Storing could remove a vote)
6. Pinnacle (Not so much a manipulation, could lead to higher vote counts on somebody though.)

I think these ones do not count. Sparker storing would not even be able to cast a vote (I'm guessing). Pinnacle is forced to vote on a played already voted on but their vote would still be visible. Right @StrikerEZ?