Long Game 56: Discord in Elendel

[Fifth Scholar he/him]

Just now, Amanuensis said:

Missing one possibility.

4) Drake is the kandra with an extra life.

I’m lumping that under option (2). It’s a Thug-esque role, and would still make Drake evil. 

[Amanuensis he/him]

Just now, Fifth Scholar said:

I’m lumping that under option (2). It’s a Thug-esque role, and would still make Drake evil. 

Ah. When you said counting it out, I thought you meant you're not considering it.

[Rathmaskal he/him]

Hi folks, sorry for the relative absence.  Doesn't seem like I missed too much, but great job to whomever spotted xino.  (not much additional analysis to add to that)

I will note that I had just started a PM with xino and Snipexe...  Both of them read my message around the same time and neither responded.  Given xino's flip, I'm wondering about the potential for them to both be elim.

[Sart he/him]

"Time to get some answers. Sindale (Devotary of Spontaneity), I might be focusing on you too much. However, I trust all the people who voted on you yesterday. Thomas (Drake Marshall) was attacked last night, and Wilco (Amanuensis) was attacked the night before. I know I'm good, and I trust Lafay (Ventyl) because he's new. If yesterday really was a contest between two officers, I would expect Rebels to be on both sides of that lynch. Since I don't think a Rebel was voting for you, I can only conclude you must be working for them."

[Aonar he/him]

*insert obligatory post to ensure I don't die to the filter*  

In all seriousness, I'm very sorry to do this, but I'm dead tired and need to be up for 3am tomorrow. >> I might be able to get on again before rollover, but don't bet on it. Fifth. Drake. Because reasons. (TM) This might change back, or move somewhere else entirely, if I manage to get on before rollover. Or it might not. /shurg

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

Well, I've read all of xino's interactions and there's really not that much to analyze. The only relevant interaction I can see is Aonar expressing what sounds like genuine annoyance at xino evading the inactivity filter like they did. I find it less likely that Aonar is on Xino's team.

Devotary. My reasons are already well-known; I was already suspicious of Devotary and furthermore I do not believe last cycle was a V-V lynch.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

On 6/16/2019 at 11:08 AM, _Stick_ said:

Also good job coinshot or kandra or mistborn or whoever you are that killed Xino. However if I were to guess I'd say it's a coinshot. If the kandra had a kill they would've used it last turn too.

I would somewhat expect for a Coinshot to have killed me last night instead of Xino, while a Kandra might want to target someone less likely to be lynched the following day. Fura's theory that the Kandra can assume the roles of dead players is possible. There are players who likely wouldn't have killed me had they been Coinshots, so that possibility is still open.

21 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

I tried checking the time stamps but it's at that period of time where it's too vague (your post says 17 hours ago, hers 16 hours) which means that could be a 2 minute difference or a 52 minute difference. I wanted to say it could have been too close to turn over for anyone else to comment, but I dunno.

It looks like Aonar posted ~40 minutes before the night ended, and Lum responded ~20 minutes later. At the very least, Snip would have seen Aonar's post, but not necessarily Lums response

20 hours ago, Sart said:

If yesterday really was a contest between two officers, I would expect Rebels to be on both sides of that lynch. Since I don't think a Rebel was voting for you, I can only conclude you must be working for them."

.Having Rebels on both sides of the lynch is a reasonable assumption. Being new isn't a useful predictor of alignment, and I can't say as to your alignment at this point. Unless one or more of Aman and Drake was lying about not being a Thug(and I would not say that lying is proof of guilt), then they would both need to be saved by a village Lurcher to be confirmed. I'm not really sold on the idea of there being two village Lurchers out there, it seems like too much in a limited role game where it wouldn't be unreasonable for there to be an elim Lurcher. Do you still believe a village Lurcher should claim to have/have not protected them?

[Ookla-son-son-Ventyl]

Alright, my vote is on Devotary, should be pretty obvious why.

 

Vote Count

• Devotary (3): Sart, Drake, and Ventyl
• Drake (1): Aonar

 

[Araris Valerian he/him]

I'm going to vote on Drake. Drake's alignment should shed some light on Aman's. I also, once again, don't understand the reason behind the lynch on Devotary. Could someone explain it real simple like for me?

Edit: Except Sart's explanation, which I understand.

Edited June 17, 2019 by Araris Valerian

[Fifth Scholar he/him]

Right. I’ve been very responsive in PMs and have generally been keeping up with things, but it’s high time I make my case against Drake public. 

...and the Shard just ate an hour of my work, leaving only this first paragraph, because I checked a PM in the same tab.

OK, TL;DR form because I really don’t feel like typing that all out again. 

1) Two attacks on Drake and Aman by the Elims, both survived. Two village Lurchers=incredibly unlikely. So one village Lurcher saved Drake and Aman is a Thug (doubtful), one village Lurcher saved Aman and Drake is a Thug (Drake has denied this), one villager Lurcher saved both (incredibly unlikely, would need insane luck), Aman’s survival was legit and Drake was WGGed (most likely), Drake’s survival was legit and Aman was WGGed (next most likely), both were WGGed (would be a heck of a gambit, but not really feeling it), Drake was WGGed and Aman was framed by an Elim Lurcher (highly unlikely), Aman was WGGed and Drake was framed by an Elim Lurcher (not impossible but not terribly probable either), or secret roles/Kandra (not considering because we should kill these people anyway). 

Why is WGG!Drake most likely? It’s interesting that Drake was basically mostly cleared from the D1 lynch by literally everyone except me, so his attack makes a lot of sense from an Eliminator perspective if he is one, and though Aman says he has to deal with being attacked eventually, I think Drake after D1 would have to face this issue more than even Aman. His attack and survival makes a lot of sense from Elim!Drake’s perspective; he’ll need to do it eventually with his basically cleared status, so might as well get rid of the initial suspicion surrounding WGGs early. There’s a possibility the Eliminator team framed him for this exact reason, and in that case I would pursue Aman, but going with Occam’s Razor, Drake is the more likely candidate for a WGG. I’ll note that I think Drake is either an Eliminator Thug or was protected by an Eliminator Lurcher, probably a Thug, as that would explain why his near-lynch D1 wasn’t really contested. 

2) Drake’s push for seeing yesterday as indisputably not V-V rings enormous alarm bells when Eliminator!Xinoehp apparently didn’t feel the need to defend Devotary, her teammate in Drake’s worldview. While I can understand greater suspicion of Devotary, accusing her based on the binary lynch yesterday when, as she pointed out, there were no other or better choices, and when a known Eliminator was around but still sat on the sidelines, is suspicious. 

The rest of my case is based on PMs, which I don’t want to get into as that’d probably reveal the roles of some people who’d prefer remaining below the Elim kill radar. 

[Ookla-son-son-Ventyl]

Change of plans, until further notice I am removing my vote from Devotary.

 

Vote Count

• Devotary (2): Sart and Drake
• Drake (3): Aonar, Araris, and Fifth

Edited June 17, 2019 by Ventyl

[Araris Valerian he/him]

@Ventyl Could you give a little more insight both into your initial vote on Devotary and your recent retraction? If your reason for voting on Devotary was clear (although I don't understand it), then your retraction is unclear.

[Ookla-son-son-Ventyl]

My initial vote was mainly for two reasons:

1. I did not want Fura to die.
2. I had a gut feeling about Devotary being an elim.

My retraction is also mainly for two reasons:

1. Recent PMs with multiple people
2. Fifth’s post

32 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Right. I’ve been very responsive in PMs and have generally been keeping up with things, but it’s high time I make my case against Drake public. 

...and the Shard just ate an hour of my work, leaving only this first paragraph, because I checked a PM in the same tab.

OK, TL;DR form because I really don’t feel like typing that all out again. 

1) Two attacks on Drake and Aman by the Elims, both survived. Two village Lurchers=incredibly unlikely. So one village Lurcher saved Drake and Aman is a Thug (doubtful), one village Lurcher saved Aman and Drake is a Thug (Drake has denied this), one villager Lurcher saved both (incredibly unlikely, would need insane luck), Aman’s survival was legit and Drake was WGGed (most likely), Drake’s survival was legit and Aman was WGGed (next most likely), both were WGGed (would be a heck of a gambit, but not really feeling it), Drake was WGGed and Aman was framed by an Elim Lurcher (highly unlikely), Aman was WGGed and Drake was framed by an Elim Lurcher (not impossible but not terribly probable either), or secret roles/Kandra (not considering because we should kill these people anyway). 

Why is WGG!Drake most likely? It’s interesting that Drake was basically mostly cleared from the D1 lynch by literally everyone except me, so his attack makes a lot of sense from an Eliminator perspective if he is one, and though Aman says he has to deal with being attacked eventually, I think Drake after D1 would have to face this issue more than even Aman. His attack and survival makes a lot of sense from Elim!Drake’s perspective; he’ll need to do it eventually with his basically cleared status, so might as well get rid of the initial suspicion surrounding WGGs early. There’s a possibility the Eliminator team framed him for this exact reason, and in that case I would pursue Aman, but going with Occam’s Razor, Drake is the more likely candidate for a WGG. I’ll note that I think Drake is either an Eliminator Thug or was protected by an Eliminator Lurcher, probably a Thug, as that would explain why his near-lynch D1 wasn’t really contested. 

2) Drake’s push for seeing yesterday as indisputably not V-V rings enormous alarm bells when Eliminator!Xinoehp apparently didn’t feel the need to defend Devotary, her teammate in Drake’s worldview. While I can understand greater suspicion of Devotary, accusing her based on the binary lynch yesterday when, as she pointed out, there were no other or better choices, and when a known Eliminator was around but still sat on the sidelines, is suspicious. 

The rest of my case is based on PMs, which I don’t want to get into as that’d probably reveal the roles of some people who’d prefer remaining below the Elim kill radar. 

 

Edited June 17, 2019 by Ventyl

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Okay, thanks for spelling it out for me

[Amanuensis he/him]

Okay so I'm going to be honest. I don't agree with either Devotary or Drake's lynch, so I'm not going to vote there. @Devotary of Spontaneity do you have any suspicions you'd like to pursue over yourself? @Lumgol, @Rathmaskal, @Straw, @_Stick_, @Snipexe: none of you are voting, but the turn will be over in 6 or so hours if my math is right. I need to sleep early tonight so I'd rather hash this out soon. Can you share your thoughts?

[StrikerEZ he/him]

9 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

but the turn will be over in 6 or so hours if my math is right.

It's actually about just over 4 hours.

[Amanuensis he/him]

@MrakeDarshall I hope you'll be on soon. As it stands you're due to get lynched.

[Sart he/him]

2 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Right. I’ve been very responsive in PMs and have generally been keeping up with things, but it’s high time I make my case against Drake public. 

...and the Shard just ate an hour of my work, leaving only this first paragraph, because I checked a PM in the same tab.

OK, TL;DR form because I really don’t feel like typing that all out again. 

1) Two attacks on Drake and Aman by the Elims, both survived. Two village Lurchers=incredibly unlikely. So one village Lurcher saved Drake and Aman is a Thug (doubtful), one village Lurcher saved Aman and Drake is a Thug (Drake has denied this), one villager Lurcher saved both (incredibly unlikely, would need insane luck), Aman’s survival was legit and Drake was WGGed (most likely), Drake’s survival was legit and Aman was WGGed (next most likely), both were WGGed (would be a heck of a gambit, but not really feeling it), Drake was WGGed and Aman was framed by an Elim Lurcher (highly unlikely), Aman was WGGed and Drake was framed by an Elim Lurcher (not impossible but not terribly probable either), or secret roles/Kandra (not considering because we should kill these people anyway). 

Why is WGG!Drake most likely? It’s interesting that Drake was basically mostly cleared from the D1 lynch by literally everyone except me, so his attack makes a lot of sense from an Eliminator perspective if he is one, and though Aman says he has to deal with being attacked eventually, I think Drake after D1 would have to face this issue more than even Aman. His attack and survival makes a lot of sense from Elim!Drake’s perspective; he’ll need to do it eventually with his basically cleared status, so might as well get rid of the initial suspicion surrounding WGGs early. There’s a possibility the Eliminator team framed him for this exact reason, and in that case I would pursue Aman, but going with Occam’s Razor, Drake is the more likely candidate for a WGG. I’ll note that I think Drake is either an Eliminator Thug or was protected by an Eliminator Lurcher, probably a Thug, as that would explain why his near-lynch D1 wasn’t really contested. 

2) Drake’s push for seeing yesterday as indisputably not V-V rings enormous alarm bells when Eliminator!Xinoehp apparently didn’t feel the need to defend Devotary, her teammate in Drake’s worldview. While I can understand greater suspicion of Devotary, accusing her based on the binary lynch yesterday when, as she pointed out, there were no other or better choices, and when a known Eliminator was around but still sat on the sidelines, is suspicious. 

The rest of my case is based on PMs, which I don’t want to get into as that’d probably reveal the roles of some people who’d prefer remaining below the Elim kill radar. 

Alright, big reveal time. I lurched Drake last night. Unless big shenanigans happened, he's innocent.

[Amanuensis he/him]

Just now, Sart said:

Alright, big reveal time. I lurched Drake last night. Unless big shenanigans happened, he's innocent.

I knew it 

Second big reveal, I'm a Lurcher too and protected myself N1.

You evil, Sart?

[Sart he/him]

1 minute ago, Amanuensis said:

I knew it 

Second big reveal, I'm a Lurcher too and protected myself N1.

You evil, Sart?

Afraid not. Are you? And why is Fifth Scholar claiming to have protected you?

[Fifth Scholar he/him]

1 minute ago, Sart said:

Afraid not. Are you? And why is Fifth Scholar claiming to have protected you?

As part of protecting him. If he chooses to expose himself and not let me cover for him, that’s at his discretion. It’s likely best I stop running interference for him, though.

[Amanuensis he/him]

3 minutes ago, Sart said:

Afraid not. Are you? And why is Fifth Scholar claiming to have protected you?

I'm not. I revealed to him not long before he claimed in the group PM, and he suggested a gambit to see how you/Araris would react. I thought it was fine at the time but the events of last have made me question a lot. Honestly I'm pretty confused because two village Lurchers seems unlikely. I wanted to claim this in thread earlier and propose myself for today's lynch to finally put this WGG nonsense to rest, but he advised me not to.

Edited June 17, 2019 by Amanuensis

[Stick. she/her]

42 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

 @Lumgol, @Rathmaskal, @Straw, @_Stick_, @Snipexe: none of you are voting, but the turn will be over in 6 or so hours if my math is right. I need to sleep early tonight so I'd rather hash this out soon. Can you share your thoughts?

Sorry - I warned everyone of my upcoming bad activity levels  

you haven’t voted yet either - if not Devotary or drake, who’d you like lynched?

Ninjad by sart

ninjad again. By Aman 

Oh. o.O Wow

8 minutes ago, Sart said:

Alright, big reveal time. I lurched Drake last night. Unless big shenanigans happened, he's innocent.

This is an extremely risky move for elim!Sart to make just to prevent an elim!drake lynch

ninjad again...

Fifth claimed to have protected Aman? What?

7 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

I knew it 

Second big reveal, I'm a Lurcher too and protected myself N1.

You evil, Sart?

Would’ve made everything a whole lot clearer had you said this D2 honestly. Why should we trust this claim?

Edit:

And Ninjad twice again 

Edited June 17, 2019 by _Stick_

[Amanuensis he/him]

1 minute ago, _Stick_ said:

Would’ve made everything a whole lot clearer had you said this D2 honestly. Why should we trust this claim?

I was concerned about a elim!Hazekiller blocking me to render my role useless, so I only claimed to two players. @Lumgol and @Ventyl can confirm this, and it's part of the reason why they've been vouching for me without much explanation. I then later revealed it to Fifth and Drake in a group PM as well, but this was before Drake's survival. I've been legit losing my mind all day because of this.

[Stick. she/her]

Did y’all really have to throw all this at me at 1 AM