Long Game 56: Discord in Elendel

[Amanuensis he/him]

Still on the bus and my laptop is nearly dead so I can't really do much, but I might as well post a vote tally.

• (4) Furamirionind: _Stick_, Fifth Scholar, Lumgol, Araris Valerian,
• (3) Devotary of Spontaneity: Sart, MrakeDarshall, Ventyl,
• (1) _Stick_: Furamirionind, 
• (1) MrakeDarshall: Rathmaskal,

9 out of 16 votes so far, 7 of which are focused on two different players. Though I might be getting ahead of myself, I think that's a pretty good sign of a V-E situation. @Young Bard, @Aonar, @Devotary of Spontaneity, @xinoehp512, and @Snipexe. Can you guys come and weigh in on things? Your thoughts and opinions matter a lot!

ED1T:

Sorry Sart, I just realized you voted lol. The last person I was missing was @Straw

Edited June 14, 2019 by Amanuensis

[Fifth Scholar he/him]

Thanks, Araris. 

Another thing I did notice is that Fura has jumped from Aman at the beginning of the cycle “Sure, he isnt hard cleared but I think he is as cleared as anyone can be after C1” to now claiming that “I think Lum-Stick-Aman elim team.” It’s either last-second distancing, or last-second grasping at straws by either village! or elim!Fura. Because of my prior views I’m suspecting the former. 

[Straw he/him]

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Ventyl is 100% village.
I am 99% certain that my previous statement is correct. I'll reread the thread in a moment and see where my vote lands.

Not really a fan of this. Seems a bit like pocketing.

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Well... that's bad. Lynching MB D1... and there almost certainly isnt a second one unless they are an elim/Kandra.

At least this means we dont have to worry about people claiming MB when they survive a lynch.

If you are a MB, I encourage you to PM me and tell me now. Otherwise i wont trust you if you claim after surviving a lynch.

PM part is very odd. Kind of reads like a threat to me, but that's probably just my mind seeing weird things.

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Why me? Because I dont believe there to be anyone more or less trustworthy than myself at the moment, and they have to claim to someone. Otherwise I might direct a potential MB to them.

Why do the Mistborn have to claim?

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Why should the coinshot PM someone? Generally, it would be safer for them to keep a low profile. The risk of PMing a Kandra/Elim is one that I would not encourage them to take. We should know for certain if they are in the game D2/D3 depending on when they make their first kill.

This post seems really hypocritical when you consider Furamirionind's post encouraging the Mistborn to claim to them.

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What are the chances of a WGG on N1 on someone under mild suspicion at best? I'd say astronomical.

Well, awesome! Great job to whatever caused Aman to survive.

This is a bit of overreaction, and dismisses a WGG too quickly. Also maybe pocketing. 

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It's hard to change the lynch 10 minutes to rollover. I tried once in MR35, and not only did it not work, but it made me look really suspicious. I dont blame any villager or elim for not trying to change the lynch that late due to that. I am an example of that. If I was around an hour or so before rollover, I would have likely tried to get a non-Ark/Drake lynch. 

I definitely agree with this. Changing lynches at the last minute seems like it could create a lot of drama.

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Well, yes according to lore... But... Mechanics? :'( it's just a theory...

I just remembered that Bleeder used spikes to give herself allomantic powers, so it actually is a possibility. 

All of the quotes above are from Furamirionind, just in case that wasn't obvious.

Due the suspicious stuff that i commented on above, I'm going to place my vote on Furamirionind for now.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

5 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Here's one thing though. At 11:28 PM on Wednesday (N1, I believe) Fura PM'd me and asked for a PM-contacts trade. I didn't consider the implications of informing Fura much at the time, but I agreed and now I'm a little worried Fura was testing to see if I was networking a lot with the Village. In the event that Fura's an eliminator this was a very bad call on my part, and now that I think about it, I might prefer to resolve this lynch even after I do my analysis of Devotary. Especially since Fura hasn't replied anything more after N1 (while I have).

Attempting to find out PM contacts appears to be a common thing with Fura this game. I have heard an explanation for why this, namely that knowing who people are in contact with helps determine where people are getting information from and gives hints as to role and alignment. I'm more towards the PM safety side of the spectrum than Fura is, although I did end up trading some PM contacts.

3 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

it kind of makes sense. If the kandra win-con is made easier/possible to achieve by modifying our wincon so that we have to kill them, I'd suspect that their win-con involves them dying (or at least being discovered by the village?)...and the only way that would make sense given the whole 'be the last player standing' thing is by somehow not dying. Hm.

The Kandra win condition as originally written was nearly impossible, as it involved winning a 1v1v1 by killing both remaining players simultaneously. Forcing us to kill the Kandra opens up the possibility of killing all the elims and then still losing to the Kandra, which wasn't an option previously. I think the closest thing we've had to a SK like the one Aman describes is are your Quicksilver from LG37, which could switch bodies by killing but could still be stopped by the lynch and outside kills.

2 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

You say my play this game looks very possibly like a rushed elim who is showing their tells. Is it not possible, I am a rushed villager showing their tells?

Presumably, your elim tells would be different from your village tells, and being rushed would serve to amplify that difference. What tells do you think have been indicative of you being a villager?

2 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

I didn’t consider that an elim would reach out to me on D2 until after I sent you those names. I should have thought it through more first, but that was a mistake on my part, and I legit groaned at myself for doing something that dumb. 

Do you mean that you didn't consider that a Lurcher would reach out to you D2? Presumably, if you were suspicious of those who contacted you D2, you were considering that they might be elims.

Stick shifting reads towards elim!Aman and village!Fifth if Fura is an elim, and the other way if Fura is village seems reasonable, especially as I'm not seeing any way for Fura and Fura to both be evil. 

2 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

As a villager elim, would you be likely to PM Aman before he survives an attack?
  No, It's a waste of a PM, and assuming no WGG/elim!Aman, the elims have no reason to believe Aman would survive.

Usually, one PM per turn means an elim wouldn't want to waste it on someone who died. In this game, it's a bit more likely, as a Tineye could scan you and see that you were in contact with Aman before he died, and you also told people that you had sent Aman a PM N1. One lost PM isn't too much of a price to pay if you can point to that as evidence for why you didn't kill Aman. Attempting to kill a village!Aman for a role is also possible, but would be rather hasty.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

2 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

3 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

As a villager elim, would you be likely to PM Aman before he survives an attack?
  No, It's a waste of a PM, and assuming no WGG/elim!Aman, the elims have no reason to believe Aman would survive.

Usually, one PM per turn means an elim wouldn't want to waste it on someone who died. In this game, it's a bit more likely, as a Tineye could scan you and see that you were in contact with Aman before he died, and you also told people that you had sent Aman a PM N1. One lost PM isn't too much of a price to pay if you can point to that as evidence for why you didn't kill Aman. Attempting to kill a village!Aman for a role is also possible, but would be rather hasty.

I don't know the exact timing of this PM, but it's also worth mentioning that elim kills are often not decided on until near the end of the cycle, so someone could have started a PM with Aman and then decide to target him later.

[Amanuensis he/him]

18 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Do you mean that you didn't consider that a Lurcher would reach out to you D2? Presumably, if you were suspicious of those who contacted you D2, you were considering that they might be elims.

When I got in thread and posted all of that, I had already received two PMs and neither one of them said or implied "I saved your life." If either of them were the Lurcher, I figured they'd have done so quickly, as successfully blocking an elim kill is something worth celebrating, especially since it more-or-less guarantees I'm a Villager to them as well. As I thought on it more, I figured the Lurcher was either A: one of the players who PM'd me before D2 or B: a player who hadn't PM'd me yet. I decided it wasn't very important for me to know who they are, and the last thing I wanted to do was enable the elims a way to track them (should they have the means). Hence why I said in thread it might be best for them to keep me in the dark for a bit.

Plus, honestly, even if the Lurcher did claim to me (which they didn't), I would never say so in thread or inform players in PMs I don't have a reasonable amount of trust in.

Edited June 14, 2019 by Amanuensis
Added sentence starting with "Hence" for clarification

[Furamirionind They/Any/All]

Well, I was originally going to vote Devotary purely so that I could watch what people did with the vote being close. However, I feel that the vote is a little one sided for that to matter at the moment. I have gathered what Data I can, and don't believe I can get any more through PMs this game.

I don't see a reason for me to live past this turn. I am so highly suspected for... I'm still not quite certain... Anyways, this suspicion will not wear off throughout the game, and my life will just be a constant drain on analysis resources.  I also will not be able to accomplish anything, as people are so certain they have figured out my alignment, they are no longer willing to share any data with me.

I am the Hazekiller. My goal this game was to gather PM networks. Through those networks, about N3 I would start using my charges on whoever I most suspect. I am tempted to use one before I die, however, I don't really see the point.
Through using my charges and network combined, I was hoping to be able to work out player's roles, and combined with the network, I figured this would allow me to reach out to those with complimentary roles and pair them together, or separate them if they were too suspicious.

I know, that was a bit of an ambitious goal, especially for trying not to put so much time in, but I failed on that account anyway, so...

I will be gathering up what information I have, and distributing it amongst a couple people. Hopefully, my words will be given at least a little more weight once I flip village.

Stick
Fura

[Araris Valerian he/him]

48 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Another thing I did notice is that Fura has jumped from Aman at the beginning of the cycle “Sure, he isnt hard cleared but I think he is as cleared as anyone can be after C1” to now claiming that “I think Lum-Stick-Aman elim team.” It’s either last-second distancing, or last-second grasping at straws by either village! or elim!Fura. Because of my prior views I’m suspecting the former. 

By former I assume you mean last-second distancing rather than village!Fura.

[Amanuensis he/him]

3 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Well, I was originally going to vote Devotary purely so that I could watch what people did with the vote being close. However, I feel that the vote is a little one sided for that to matter at the moment. I have gathered what Data I can, and don't believe I can get any more through PMs this game.

I don't see a reason for me to live past this turn. I am so highly suspected for... I'm still not quite certain... Anyways, this suspicion will not wear off throughout the game, and my life will just be a constant drain on analysis resources.  I also will not be able to accomplish anything, as people are so certain they have figured out my alignment, they are no longer willing to share any data with me.

I am the Hazekiller. My goal this game was to gather PM networks. Through those networks, about N3 I would start using my charges on whoever I most suspect. I am tempted to use one before I die, however, I don't really see the point.
Through using my charges and network combined, I was hoping to be able to work out player's roles, and combined with the network, I figured this would allow me to reach out to those with complimentary roles and pair them together, or separate them if they were too suspicious.

I know, that was a bit of an ambitious goal, especially for trying not to put so much time in, but I failed on that account anyway, so...

I will be gathering up what information I have, and distributing it amongst a couple people. Hopefully, my words will be given at least a little more weight once I flip village.

Stick
Fura

Oof. Okay. Hm.

If you're being honest, I would have preferred it if you told me in our PM that you truly a Hazekiller, as well as voted on Devotary anyway. After all, as a villager you should want to keep the votes close because if Devotary is indeed evil, it's very likely a fellow eliminator would have done something to help. After Straw's vote I was nearly about to vote Devotary, even without my isolation analysis, just to keep things on an even level. But now... hm.

This complicates things a little bit. I've been suspicious of an elim!Hazekiller since a player (Mrake?) pointed out how useful a role it would be for the elim team, due to it's strategic power and reasonable limitations. Unfortunately tactics wise this kind of post is NAI, because no one really wants to die and usually roleclaiming is a decent way to turn people away. And that isn't even considering you're just straight up lying... but I find that kind of unlikely because if a Village Hazekiller would come forward after this, we'd probably lynch you anyway. I suppose you could argue that given the limited number of charges, the village can afford to have two, but...

Hm.

[Straw he/him]

29 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

I don't see a reason for me to live past this turn. I am so highly suspected for... I'm still not quite certain... Anyways, this suspicion will not wear off throughout the game, and my life will just be a constant drain on analysis resources.  I also will not be able to accomplish anything, as people are so certain they have figured out my alignment, they are no longer willing to share any data with me.

Maybe look at Aman's analysis post for some reasons why you're being lynched.

34 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

I am the Hazekiller. My goal this game was to gather PM networks. Through those networks, about N3 I would start using my charges on whoever I most suspect. I am tempted to use one before I die, however, I don't really see the point.
Through using my charges and network combined, I was hoping to be able to work out player's roles, and combined with the network, I figured this would allow me to reach out to those with complimentary roles and pair them together, or separate them if they were too suspicious.

Trying to collect and centralize information is typically an eliminator move. Also, the fact that PMs are limited in this game seems like it'd make this goal difficult to do. I'm not really sure how you'd think it'd be feasible.

38 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Stick
Fura

Self-votes can indicate an exasperated villager, but I've more often seen them used by eliminators. I'm keeping my vote on Furamirionind for now.

[Furamirionind They/Any/All]

6 minutes ago, Straw said:

Trying to collect and centralize information is typically an eliminator move. Also, the fact that PMs are limited in this game seems like it'd make this goal difficult to do. I'm not really sure how you'd think it'd be feasible.

It's also typically a Fura move. For reference, see Fura in literally any game ever. : P

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

So uh. This is the part where I point out that nobody but me is actually defending Furamirionind, and that you all should probably reconsider lynching Fura.

[Furamirionind They/Any/All]

5 minutes ago, MrakeDarshall said:

So uh. This is the part where I point out that nobody but me is actually defending Furamirionind, and that you all should probably reconsider lynching Fura.

Oh, but I almost have my death PMs all written... :/

[Straw he/him]

1 minute ago, Furamirionind said:

It's also typically a Fura move. For reference, see Fura in literally any game ever. : P

I'm just not seeing how it'd be effective. You have a limited number of PMs, which slows down the amount of information you can collect. If you try to combat that with PM chains, you risk polluting your data by contacting an eliminator. In addition, that solution would fall apart rapidly if the eliminators killed someone in the chain.

48 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Through using my charges and network combined, I was hoping to be able to work out player's roles, and combined with the network, I figured this would allow me to reach out to those with complimentary roles and pair them together, or separate them if they were too suspicious.

Another question: how did you plan to separate suspicious players? Also, what would that accomplish?

[Furamirionind They/Any/All]

6 minutes ago, Straw said:

I'm just not seeing how it'd be effective. You have a limited number of PMs, which slows down the amount of information you can collect. If you try to combat that with PM chains, you risk polluting your data by contacting an eliminator. In addition, that solution would fall apart rapidly if the eliminators killed someone in the chain.

The point, is you use PMs efficiently. you learn who has PMs with who, and learn through that who you need to PM. You learn who you should include in your group PM. By knowing who PMed who, you gain info on roles and alignments both. For instance, I happen to be in a PM circle. Where each player just so happened to receive a PM, and send a PM to the one adjacent. That's pretty telling.

8 minutes ago, Straw said:

Another question: how did you plan to separate suspicious players? Also, what would that accomplish?

I was rushing due to being at work. I am not planning on separating at all. What you do is you pair suspicious ones with ones you trust that can prove their role. Like how I paired Drake with myself in MR35, as I thought he might not submit an attack on the Krell. That way, I knew if he did or not. Same concept. Beyond that, I will go into no more detail.

[Fifth Scholar he/him]

1 hour ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Stick shifting reads towards elim!Aman and village!Fifth if Fura is an elim, and the other way if Fura is village seems reasonable, especially as I'm not seeing any way for Fura and Fura to both be evil. 

I assume you mean Fura and Fifth.  

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

By former I assume you mean last-second distancing rather than village!Fura.

Yes. 

39 minutes ago, MrakeDarshall said:

So uh. This is the part where I point out that nobody but me is actually defending Furamirionind, and that you all should probably reconsider lynching Fura.

Hardly. Ventyl has expressed a desire that Fura not be lynched, as have you, and until recently opinion was more evenly divided. I think what we might be seeing is Eliminator teammates (thinking Aman and perhaps Straw) pushing heavily on the distancing angle to avoid tying themselves too closely to a perhaps doomed teammate, or staying off any lynch entirely—even if this lynch was swung to Devotary, assuming elim!Fura and notelim!Devotary, Fura and her defenders would only look worse next cycle. In particular, Aman has shifted his focus considerably this cycle, and Straw has been focusing totally and completely on Fura after the lynch tipped in her favour. If Fura is village, I’ve been so wrong that...I don’t even know. Perhaps I deserve to be lynched at that point, but my immediate thought would be a Drake/Devotary/third player team. I’ll acknowledge I’m likely very deep into a tunnel on Fura, but as I believe I’m in the right tunnel, I’m willing to risk it. 

[Amanuensis he/him]

Just got home. Dead tired. Still going to try to commit to my promise of isolation analysis on her, but for now... Devotary.

• (6) Furamirionind: _Stick_, Fifth Scholar, Lumgol, Araris Valerian, Straw, Furamirionind, 
• (4) Devotary of Spontaneity: Sart, MrakeDarshall, Ventyl, Amanuensis, 
• (1) MrakeDarshall: Rathmaskal,

I believe this is accurate, but I'll go ahead and double check.

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

52 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Oh, but I almost have my death PMs all written... :/

Yeah, I’m inconvenient like that.

I am more in favor of attempting probably inaccurate D1 lynches than Aman is, but I still really don’t like lynching villagers if I can help it, and I think you’re a villager.

 

Other news, between thread and PM I believe I’ve asked Devotary three times now for reads on other players that would be valuable for catching other elims if Devotary were an elim. If they had answered with a concrete suspicion, I probably would have backed off, since willingness to share that info would be a villager move and because that info would be insurance in case Devotary was an elim.

I’m not the best at catching elims in the conventional sense but I’m usually decent at spotting a villager once I’ve put them on the spot. What I’m saying is, I’ve been trying to give Devotary lots of opportunities to convince me otherwise and I’m still reading elim. Doubly so for the concerted push against Fura, where I would usually expect a stronger sentiment of uncertainty on a V-V lynch (off the top of my head, I’d suspect Lumgol of protecting Devotary if Devotary is in fact an elim).

Sorry if I’m wrong about this but I definitely think lynching Fura is a mistake (can anybody here, considering everything as a whole, point to any particular thing that really incriminates Fura?) and I do maintain my suspicion of Devotary.

[Amanuensis he/him]

11 minutes ago, MrakeDarshall said:

Yeah, I’m inconvenient like that.

I am more in favor of attempting probably inaccurate D1 lynches than Aman is, but I still really don’t like lynching villagers if I can help it, and I think you’re a villager.

 

Other news, between thread and PM I believe I’ve asked Devotary three times now for reads on other players that would be valuable for catching other elims if Devotary were an elim. If they had answered with a concrete suspicion, I probably would have backed off, since willingness to share that info would be a villager move and because that info would be insurance in case Devotary was an elim.

I’m not the best at catching elims in the conventional sense but I’m usually decent at spotting a villager once I’ve put them on the spot. What I’m saying is, I’ve been trying to give Devotary lots of opportunities to convince me otherwise and I’m still reading elim. Doubly so for the concerted push against Fura, where I would usually expect a stronger sentiment of uncertainty on a V-V lynch (off the top of my head, I’d suspect Lumgol of protecting Devotary if Devotary is in fact an elim).

Sorry if I’m wrong about this but I definitely think lynching Fura is a mistake (can anybody here, considering everything as a whole, point to any particular thing that really incriminates Fura?) and I do maintain my suspicion of Devotary.

I think the biggest reason for me was the PM contact thing before my attack, but now that Fura has addressed why, I understand it a bit more. Also I disagree with Straw about self votes usually coming from elims, especially after Fura told me why she decided to do it in our PM. I'm kind of hoping that if Fura is lying, or an elim!Hazerkiller, a village!Hazekiller will announce their role in PM's to the person they trust the most, but that's honestly a bit risky. I'm not necessarily advising they do, but if you're out there, it's an idea.

[Furamirionind They/Any/All]

I'm still conflicted as I feel like I should be the one to die today, but as voting on Devotary ties up the lynch, I'll switch for the moment.

fura

Devotary

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

33 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

I assume you mean Fura and Fifth.

Ah yes. Two names starting with F in a row.

1 hour ago, Furamirionind said:

The point, is you use PMs efficiently. you learn who has PMs with who, and learn through that who you need to PM. You learn who you should include in your group PM. By knowing who PMed who, you gain info on roles and alignments both. For instance, I happen to be in a PM circle. Where each player just so happened to receive a PM, and send a PM to the one adjacent. That's pretty telling.

Knowing peoples roles only starts being helpful when it leads to alignments, and it's difficult to learn alignments from roles without coordination that requires knowing alignment to function properly. One can learn alignment from roles, things like getting an elim lynched with vote manipulation, having a Coinshot shoot an elim, a Hazekiller/Lurcher blocking an elim kill, and assuming that since one village Mistborn died, there aren't any others. You're also likely to give role information to the elims unless you start with a solid trust base.

17 minutes ago, MrakeDarshall said:

Other news, between thread and PM I believe I’ve asked Devotary three times now for reads on other players that would be valuable for catching other elims if Devotary were an elim. If they had answered with a concrete suspicion, I probably would have backed off, since willingness to share that info would be a villager move and because that info would be insurance in case Devotary was an elim.

I’m not the best at catching elims in the conventional sense but I’m usually decent at spotting a villager once I’ve put them on the spot. What I’m saying is, I’ve been trying to give Devotary lots of opportunities to convince me otherwise and I’m still reading elim. Doubly so for the concerted push against Fura, where I would usually expect a stronger sentiment of uncertainty on a V-V lynch (off the top of my head, I’d suspect Lumgol of protecting Devotary if Devotary is in fact an elim).

Sorry if I’m wrong about this but I definitely think lynching Fura is a mistake (can anybody here, considering everything as a whole, point to any particular thing that really incriminates Fura?) and I do maintain my suspicion of Devotary.

If you're counting the time when you asked me how D1 voting patterns relate to alignment, then sure, you've asked me three different times. I've given you answers, three different times. I am not going to give you concrete suspicions. I will always phrase things in terms of possibilities and leans. That's just the type of player I am. I am very uncertain about many things regardless of alignment. You then go on to describe uncertainty as a village sentiment. The lynch is now effectively tied, as it would be really easy for Fura to switch over, which I would say is a relatively strong measure of uncertainty. Do you think it's more village to have concrete suspicions, or to be uncertain about suspicions? 

[Amanuensis he/him]

• (5) Furamirionind: _Stick_, Fifth Scholar, Lumgol, Araris Valerian, Straw,
• (5) Devotary of Spontaneity: Sart, MrakeDarshall, Ventyl, Amanuensis, Furamirionind, 
• (1) MrakeDarshall: Rathmaskal,

@Aonar @Young Bard @xinoehp512 @Snipexe if you'd like to way in before the turn is over, we'd all appreciate it.

I think Devotary is the last vote, but she is present so I won't tag her.

ED1T: @Rathmaskal, just want to confirm this is where you want your vote.

Edited June 14, 2019 by Amanuensis

[Rathmaskal he/him]

Drake

I am conveniently in a PM with both leading lynch candidates.  So I have them jousting with each other for my vote currently.

As I mentioned earlier, however, I'm leaning more elim on Fura than Devotary.

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

1 hour ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Hardly. Ventyl has expressed a desire that Fura not be lynched, as have you, and until recently opinion was more evenly divided. I think what we might be seeing is Eliminator teammates (thinking Aman and perhaps Straw) pushing heavily on the distancing angle to avoid tying themselves too closely to a perhaps doomed teammate, or staying off any lynch entirely—even if this lynch was swung to Devotary, assuming elim!Fura and notelim!Devotary, Fura and her defenders would only look worse next cycle. In particular, Aman has shifted his focus considerably this cycle, and Straw has been focusing totally and completely on Fura after the lynch tipped in her favour. If Fura is village, I’ve been so wrong that...I don’t even know. Perhaps I deserve to be lynched at that point, but my immediate thought would be a Drake/Devotary/third player team. I’ll acknowledge I’m likely very deep into a tunnel on Fura, but as I believe I’m in the right tunnel, I’m willing to risk it. 

I was interested in Aman’s shift of focus as well, but as you can see Aman is no longer credibly distancing Fura.

I am defending Fura, but I am also less likely than most to be an elim after D1, not to mention putting myself out there to defend people is something I am kind of beginning to make a habit of. Given the spread of villagers and elims, I believe it’s much more logical to insist that somebody is village than it is to do the opposite.

I can’t speak for Ventyl or Sart, aside from that I have no particular cause to suspect them, and that their votes happened early enough into the cycle that I find it less likely to be a reaction to Fura recieving votes.

For what it’s worth, I respect that you are willing to risk it. Me too. I doubt it’ll actually happen, but I’d put myself up for the lynch if I am wrong about Fura. I probably wouldn’t at this stage in the game stake my life on Devotary being evil, unless I was only risking my life and not also staking Devotary’s by lynching them.

I doubt you will change your mind, any more than I will change mine. But, maybe think about it? You said you’re in a tunnel and I bet a fresh perspective wouldn’t go amiss even if you are right.

Fura may have lied about her role in PMs (she did that to me too, incidentally), but if anything that feels more like a villager’s attempt at a gambit than an eliminator tactic. I struggle to see what an eliminator might gain from such a ploy, and it would almost inevitably net them suspicion for a lie that they couldn’t substantiate with accurate scans and would likely face a counterclaim in the future.

EDIT: I think we can agree though that this doesn’t really feel like a V-V lynch? Not that I am at all unhappy with greater levels of activity and participation, but the jump from D1 levels of participation and side-taking to what we have right now is interesting.

23 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

If you're counting the time when you asked me how D1 voting patterns relate to alignment, then sure, you've asked me three different times. I've given you answers, three different times. I am not going to give you concrete suspicions. I will always phrase things in terms of possibilities and leans. That's just the type of player I am. I am very uncertain about many things regardless of alignment. You then go on to describe uncertainty as a village sentiment. The lynch is now effectively tied, as it would be really easy for Fura to switch over, which I would say is a relatively strong measure of uncertainty. Do you think it's more village to have concrete suspicions, or to be uncertain about suspicions? 

You are reading my saying “uncertainty is to be expected in a V-V lynch” to mean “villagers act with uncertainty”. My point there was that everyone would act uncertain. Even eliminators would act uncertain because they know at least as well as the villagers that there aren’t any good options.

That said, the statement “villagers act with uncertainty”, while not my original statement, is also sometimes correct. It isn’t always the case, for example I believe Fifth is likely a villager in part because they are so certain in their suspicions.

More to the point, I am not suspecting you on account of uncertainty.

It would be one thing to give me some soft reads and suspicions, things you aren’t sure enough to act on, but things you’ve noticed.

What you did was avoid giving me any suspicions the first two times, and then told me you suspected the person who was probably going to get lynched today the third time.

I’m sorry, but I find that suspicous. I asked to know your thought process, see how you were trying to solve the game, and you effectively blocked me out. That doesn’t prove that you are an elim, but it does increase the probability considerably.

Edited June 14, 2019 by MrakeDarshall

[Amanuensis he/him]

• (6) Furamirionind: _Stick_, Fifth Scholar, Lumgol, Araris Valerian, Straw, Rathmaskal, 
• (5) Devotary of Spontaneity: Sart, MrakeDarshall, Ventyl, Amanuensis, Furamirionind, 

I'm sorry everyone, but I'm an idiot. I thought turn over was in 17 minutes instead of two hours and 17 minutes. I've been nodding off the last few minutes so I really think I won't be able to stay up until the end. I'm going to see how much I can get through Devotary's posts, but I'm not sure I'll be able to finish 

Edited June 14, 2019 by Amanuensis