Long Game 44: Shadows of Elantris Redux

[DrakeMarshall]

25 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

So there are currently four Derethi converts, two of which could be Odivs. Of the initial converts, one of them used their pendant on an unknown player. The pendant's target is one of two possible Odivs if the Gyorn has sworn an Odiv. The second convert supposedly gave their pendant to Elenion. If the Gyorn targeted the person who gave the pendant to Elenion, then there is no Odiv at this time. We don't know anything about the third original convert, but Amanuensis has asked me to tell the thread that the Gyorn converted an Elantrian last night. @little wilson and @TheYoungPyromancer can confirm this.

We should be able to tell whether an Odiv has been selected by the start of the next day turn, unless the Odiv deliberately decides not to convert.

Correct me if I’m wrong, but if the Gyorn converted last night, then they can’t have sworn an Odiv already, right?

They converted an Elantrian though? Interesting. I think I see the rationale for that. Elantrians are relatively less likely to be lynched or killed (doubly so if they are Hoed). And the Gyorn would defintely prefer that lynches/kills land on people who aren’t converted yet.

I am kind of impressed by that play, especially since it was presumably devised by a single player, instead of a doc of players. Whoever the Gyorn is, they’re clever.

Although I find it kind of entertaining that Shu-Dereth is evangelizing to the Elantrians, given the Derethi stance towards Elantris in the books.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

2 minutes ago, Drake Marshall said:

Correct me if I’m wrong, but if the Gyorn converted last night, then they can’t have sworn an Odiv already, right?

Everyone gets two night actions, and converting a player and swearing an Odiv are two different actions, so I'm pretty sure the Gyorn can do both in a single night. The fact that Hero needed to make this clarification:

Quote

RULE CLARIFICATION: It has come to my attention that according to the Action Order it is theoretically possible for the Gyorn to convert any player and then immediately make them an Odiv in the same Night phase. That is more power than I intended for the Gyorn to have. I am leaving the Action Order as is, but I am appending a note to the "Swear and Odiv" action that states that the target player must be a convert before the action can be submitted, to prevent immediately converting then swearing someone. 

heavily implies that it is possible for the Gyorn to do both. They just can't make someone on Odiv on the same night they convert someone, so the newly converted Elantrian cannot yet be the Odiv.

[Kidpen]

Unless the convert was a new Elantrian. That would be only a mediocre play. I want to post my full thoughts on each player when I get home. Give me 40 minutes.

[The Young Pyromancer]

1 hour ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

@little wilson and @TheYoungPyromancer can confirm this.

Confirmed.  He also says to say he thinks he knows what the Gyorn's strat is, but doesn't want to reveal it as he wants us to discuss it.

[Elenion]

1 hour ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

So there are currently four Derethi converts, two of which could be Odivs. Of the initial converts, one of them used their pendant on an unknown player. The pendant's target is one of two possible Odivs if the Gyorn has sworn an Odiv. The second convert supposedly gave their pendant to Elenion. If the Gyorn targeted the person who gave the pendant to Elenion, then there is no Odiv at this time. We don't know anything about the third original convert, but Amanuensis has asked me to tell the thread that the Gyorn converted an Elantrian last night. @little wilson and @TheYoungPyromancer can confirm this.

We should be able to tell whether an Odiv has been selected by the start of the next day turn, unless the Odiv deliberately decides not to convert.

If the Gyorn knew who the target of the used Pendant was, they would have known that that player was a permanent convert, so they could have Odiv-ed them. The problem is that the Pendant user would know who the target was as well, so it would be a risky move by the Gyorn. If the person who used the Pendant could claim, that would be great.

[STINK]

22 minutes ago, TheYoungPyromancer said:

Confirmed.  He also says to say he thinks he knows what the Gyorn's strat is, but doesn't want to reveal it as he wants us to discuss it.

Mint wakes up. 

If you're gonna be a pseudo-whatever honestly don't know, might as well go full way.

Mint should go to sleep.

[Kidpen]

Does anyone have any suggestions for Monarch inheritance if there is no dead-doc voting? Cause my current thing was a lot more viable in D1. I don't plan to tell which one I use for the record though.

A Bit Non Suspicious

1. Elenion: Has been very helpful. Fist convert claimer.
2. TheYoungPyromancer: Voted for me at the beginning of D1. This shows good taste. Just a gut feeling other than this.

A Bit Suspicious:

Araris Valerian: An elim. Obviously.                                                                                                                                                                         

Elantrians

1. Amanuensis: I trust him almost completely. He also might have had poison used on him.

If I didn't have any thoughts I left it off. Apparently I don't have very many thoughts.

[Straw]

Araris.

[Araris Valerian]

If you didn't catch from my RP, I was converted to Shu-Dereth by a Derethi Pendant.

Edited April 14, 2018 by Araris Valerian

[TheMightyLopen]

12 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

If you didn't catch from my RP, I was converted to Shu-Dereth by a Derethi Pendant.

I also take it from your RP that you're not the Odiv, which means that the only possible convert who could be the Odiv at this point is the one unknown convert(there's Araris, Elenion, an Elantrian, and mystery person).

Since we've still got almost 24 hours left, who wants to go Gyorn hunting? Or we could try and connect Araris to other people. Personally, looking for the Gyorn sounds funner to me at the moment, so I think that's what I'll do.

At this point, I don't have many ideas about how to narrow it down, but here's my current thoughts. The Gyorn doesn't want their converts to die, as that hurts their win con. I don't think they'd actively defend their converts so early, but I am curious to know who the 2 players who had the Shu-Dereth pendants were, because if they were in any danger of the lynch D1, the Gyorn may have tried to step in and prevent their death somehow(redirecting the lynch or semi-defending them). I doubt that's gonna give any leads, but I don't see the harm in the original pendant holders revealing? If not, I don't mind too much. Anyways, moving on. The Gyorn's first convert was an Elantrian. Aman has said he thinks he knows their strat, but I've got no idea what it could be. As others have said, converting Elantrians does make it less likely the converts will die, since we probably won't lynch them and the Cultists probably won't kill them, but it also doesn't give the Gyorn good options for an Odiv I wouldn't think. Wouldn't they want their Odiv to have the ability to convert anyone, not just Elantrians? Another thing I thought of is that we can remove those with roles as suspects(unless the Gyorn has secret powers similar to roles, which would make things annoying), meaning Aman and Kidpen are cleared of being the Gyorn. We can also eliminate all of the Elantrians as suspects, obviously. I wouldn't be surprised if the Gyorn had a pendant of some kind, otherwise they'd have no way to defend themselves from a lucky scan. A Seon also might be useful, to try and gather information to help them pick an Odiv, but I don't think it's as necessary as a pendant.

Hmm, something I just thought of - it's possible the Gyorn started with a Poison vial and poisoned themselves just now to help them avoid attention/suspicion, and they converted an Elantrian just now so they could make them their Odiv while they're in Elantris. Ehhh, not sure how likely I think that plan is. There's no guarantee a lot of people will become Elantrian, so their Odiv could potentially run out of players to convert if they can only target Elantrians. 

Okay, well, that's all from me for now. I'll probably revisit this and start looking over the player list to see who I might suspect later tonight.

[The Young Pyromancer]

I just realized something.  1.  The priest isn't a confirmed villager.  2.  Nothing in the flavor references Shu-Korath.  3.  Being a Priest would be very helpful to the Gyorn, who would be trying to find Cultists.  4.  The Gyorn will have a really hard time winning, so it is not unfeasible that they would be a Priest from a balance standpoint.  5.  The Gyorn could lead a mass finding of all Cultists, then turn around and get a REALLY sneaky win.

This leads me to think that we might have a Gyorn priest on our hands, or at least a Cultist one.

[Araris Valerian]

Yeah, Aman is not 100% confirmed good, guys. You should lynch him next cycle. Or, better yet, we could kill him now!

[Kidpen]

36 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Yeah, Aman is not 100% confirmed good, guys. You should lynch him next cycle. Or, better yet, we could kill him now!

Wait, So thought it was one role per person?

[DrakeMarshall]

33 minutes ago, TheYoungPyromancer said:

I just realized something.  1.  The priest isn't a confirmed villager.  2.  Nothing in the flavor references Shu-Korath.  3.  Being a Priest would be very helpful to the Gyorn, who would be trying to find Cultists.  4.  The Gyorn will have a really hard time winning, so it is not unfeasible that they would be a Priest from a balance standpoint.  5.  The Gyorn could lead a mass finding of all Cultists, then turn around and get a REALLY sneaky win.

This leads me to think that we might have a Gyorn priest on our hands, or at least a Cultist one.

If the Gyorn were a priest, and they found a Cultist, they probably wouldn't out that Cultist, they'd more likely convert and swear the Cultist as an Odiv. And then out the rest of the Cultist's team, and gain access to the Jeskeri kill to use against non-converts.

If the Jeskeri had a priest, they could locate the Gyorn/Odiv twice as quickly as they otherwise might, as well as identifying converts, becoming near twice as effectve against the Derethi faction. One well-placed kill would effectively cripple the Derethi.

Either option sounds kind of overpowered for the faction in question, imo. Personally, I somewhat doubt we have an evil priest in play.

[Walin]

I’ve been pretty inactive for the last 24 hours; I will be active tomorrow if there’s analysis to be done. If there’s not any analysis I can do, I’ll do some RP instead.

————————

Eoni plowed the field. It was barren right now, but if it didn’t get plowed then the dirt wouldn’t hold any roots, and that just wouldn’t do.

All he needed—seeds. If there were seeds then some plants would grow in the field other than dirt. Dirt that for some reason tasted like food. Eoni should probably ask that Elantrian about it, but the Shaod was supposed to cause...well, Eoni was done plowing for the afternoon. He’d eat some food and get back to work once he found some seeds.

[Elenion]

@TheYoungPyromancer @little wilson @Devotary of Spontaneity We've been so focused on Araris that we've forgotten Aman's other action. Could one (or all) of you ask him for his Priest scan results?

[Lord Meeker]

3 minutes ago, Elenion said:

@TheYoungPyromancer @little wilson @Devotary of Spontaneity We've been so focused on Araris that we've forgotten Aman's other action. Could one (or all) of you ask him for his Priest scan results?

This is important! Sorry for bri inactive as well today. I should be one before closing. 

[TheMightyLopen]

1 hour ago, Elenion said:

@TheYoungPyromancer @little wilson @Devotary of Spontaneity We've been so focused on Araris that we've forgotten Aman's other action. Could one (or all) of you ask him for his Priest scan results?

I was kind of assuming he scanned a villager/got a village result, but whatever his scan, I'm not sure how much we can trust it either way, considering we've already seen 2 Jeskeri Pendants, and if Araris is telling the truth about having a Korathi Pendant, that's 2 Korathi Pendants we're aware of(Randuir also had one). Although, since Araris probably has one, that does mean an elim scan is that much more likely to be an actual elim(because we've gotten rid of 2 Jeskeri Pendants, and a Jeskeri with a Korathi Pendant, meaning the chances of catching a Jeskeri with scans has only gone up since the game began...I think), in which case it probably would be a good idea for Aman to reveal any Jeskeri scans he gets. I feel like at least 1 or 2 Jeskeri are vulnerable to scans, but that there's still a 1 or 2 villagers who have a Jeskeri Pendant. That does seem like a lot of firepower for the village, although they can only kill villagers. I don't know, percentage wise, we've already uncovered 2 players with Jeskeri Pendants, so it seems like there should still be a couple out there.

I'm just going in circles now. xD I wanted to do more Gyorn hunting, but my brain isn't clear enough to do analysis I'd trust, so I'm heading off.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

8 hours ago, Elenion said:

Could one (or all) of you ask him for his Priest scan results?

All he's said so far is that the person he scanned was an unconverted citizen. He has not yet revealed the name.

[TheMightyLopen]

30 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

All he's said so far is that the person he scanned was an unconverted citizen. He has not yet revealed the name.

Based on that description, it was probably me.

[A Joe in the Bush]

Seems more likely that he scanned Eternum or I, since he was considering killing us.

[Eternum]

1 hour ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

All he's said so far is that the person he scanned was an unconverted citizen. He has not yet revealed the name.

I can confirm this. I asked him too, and Aman told me the same thing. No name, only alignment.

[The Young Pyromancer]

Confirmed from me as well.

[STINK]

I'm gonna drop the mint thing for this post, hopefully only this post.

If we're gonna have all of our PM people waste their stuff on Aman, doing a 'follow the cop' strategy. Could we please at least have the cop co-operate now instead of withholding stuff? Nothing's gonna make people not vote for Araris, clearly. Just accept cop status. Or have people not take you for a cop. Either one, but please don't do an in-between thing.

[Kidpen]

I still have a PM. If you have any suggestions, let me know.

Edit: Still looking for Monarch inheritance suggestions.

Edited April 14, 2018 by Kidpen