little wilson she/her Posted July 20, 2017 Report Share Posted July 20, 2017 3 hours ago, The Flash said: If you could tell us whatever you know it would be really nice of you The person you are trying to lynch right now was allegedly going to be the night one kill for the eliminators. Edit: before they switched to Orlok. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haelbarde he/him Posted July 20, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 20, 2017 Cycle is over. I'll be getting the next one up asap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haelbarde he/him Posted July 20, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 20, 2017 Night 7 Ecthelion was lynched. They were a Friend of the ABC, and a Smoker. Tin was burnt, and PMs are OPEN. Remember to always check the thread before using PMs. Vote Tally (with history) Ecthelion(6): Flash{1}, Dalinar{1}, Stick{1}, Cloud{1}, Araris{2}, Seonid{1} Drake(0): Araris{1} Vote Tally Ecthelion(6): Flash, Dalinar, Stick, Cloud, Araris, Seonid Cycle ends in ~48 hours. Player List Spoiler Jay (The Flash) - has at least two steelminds - a ring, and a helmet Name Name (Straw) - has a name ABC Roleless Albin Brodeur (Jondesu) - Skaa Crew Member ABC Rioter Siv (Cloudjumper) - has unrealistic expectations Luigi (Shqueeves) - roots for the underdog Edmond Dantès (asterion137) - is seeking revenge for a wrongful imprisonment ABC Scavenger Carcer (Paranoid King) - is all for rebelion Dariend Castel (StrikerEZ) - walks a dark path ABC Tineye Roger Elariel (Elenion) - is not the Pauper Noble ABC Smoker Alonine (BrightnessRadiant) - is probably not the real Eponine ABC Rioter Alrin (Arinian) Aimes (Araris Valerian) - in above his head, wants to fade away Bartolomeus Teki (randuir) - is slightly suspici... ABC Thug Darius Castel (Ecthelion III) - is self-centered, with a brother ABC Smoker Keera Wilde (little Wilson) - fights for the right to be free! Siena Mattel (Seonid) - is running away from love Lukas Fehrweight (Drake Marshall) Altea Meza (Crimsn-Wolf) - here because she was told to Jack (A Joe in the Bush) Escaped Convict Dandi (_Stick_) Kliff (TheMightyLopen) - roped into manning the barricade, possibly by a cousin? ABC Roleless Garshin (Yitzi2) - thinks he's in Elendel when he really isn't... Infiltrator Roleless Rorik (Dalinar Kholin) Mykal (Amanuensis) - is a missionary of the path ABC Scavenger Phil (STINK) - is simply Phil Julie (Arraenae) - is an idealistic student fresh out of college ABC Ringleader Locke Tekiel (OrlokTsubodai) Suterna (Elbereth) Player List (Sorted) Spoiler Jay (The Flash) - has at least two steelminds - a ring, and a helmet Siv (Cloudjumper) - has unrealistic expectations Luigi (Shqueeves) - roots for the underdog Carcer (Paranoid King) - is all for rebelion Alrin (Arinian) Aimes (Araris Valerian) - in above his head, wants to fade away Keera Wilde (little Wilson) - fights for the right to be free! Siena Mattel (Seonid) - is running away from love Lukas Fehrweight (Drake Marshall) Altea Meza (Crimsn-Wolf) - here because she was told to Dandi (_Stick_) Rorik (Dalinar Kholin) Phil (STINK) - is simply Phil Locke Tekiel (OrlokTsubodai) Suterna (Elbereth) Albin Brodeur (Jondesu) - Skaa Crew Member ABC Rioter Garshin (Yitzi2) - thinks he's in Elendel when he really isn't... Infiltrator Roleless Kliff (TheMightyLopen) - roped into manning the barricade, possibly by a cousin? ABC Roleless Name Name (Straw) - has a name ABC Roleless Mykal (Amanuensis) - is a missionary of the path ABC Scavenger Bartolomeus Teki (randuir) - is slightly suspici... ABC Thug Roger Elariel (Elenion) - is not the Pauper Noble ABC Smoker Julie (Arraenae) - is an idealistic student fresh out of college ABC Ringleader Dariend Castel (StrikerEZ) - walks a dark path ABC Tineye Edmond Dantès (asterion137) - is seeking revenge for a wrongful imprisonment ABC Scavenger Jack (A Joe in the Bush) Escaped Convict Alonine (BrightnessRadiant) - is probably not the real Eponine ABC Rioter Darius Castel (Ecthelion III) - is self-centered, with a brother ABC Smoker 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stick. she/her Posted July 20, 2017 Report Share Posted July 20, 2017 Quote The person you are trying to lynch right now was allegedly going to be the night one kill for the eliminators. Edit: before they switched to Orlok. >> << You know what's weird, though? She posted this like 5 hours before rollover and was literally no one online to change their vote during those five hours? I personally find that hard to believe. ngl, I'm kind of suspicious of Flash now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeldancer he/him Posted July 20, 2017 Report Share Posted July 20, 2017 (edited) I apologize for not being in before rollover. my phone was shut off early by my mom last night . I would have changed my vote if I had seen that. So, now what? I was really confident that Ecth was an elim. Does that mean I want to go after Araris? Or Stick? Or Cloudjumper? I'll probably have to do analysis. Again *sigh* Edited July 20, 2017 by The Flash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stick. she/her Posted July 20, 2017 Report Share Posted July 20, 2017 1 hour ago, The Flash said: I apologize for not being in before rollover. my phone was shut off early by my mom last night . I would have changed my vote if I had seen that. So, now what? I was really confident that Ecth was an elim. Does that mean I want to go after Araris? Or Stick? Or Cloudjumper? I'll probably have to do analysis. Again *sigh* Why are you suspicious of me? More importantly, what about Ecth's now-revealed alignment tells you to go after me? Or Cloud, or araris, really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Araris Valerian he/him Posted July 20, 2017 Report Share Posted July 20, 2017 Well, we are at 15 players left, so 5 neutral, 4 elim and 6 village. One villager dies tonight, so that makes it 4 to 5. One mislynch and this game is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeldancer he/him Posted July 20, 2017 Report Share Posted July 20, 2017 Unless the neutrals help. but I don't find that very likely. And stick im considering my options. We HAVE to get this lynch right. Although, I find it somewhat likely that I might die tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Araris Valerian he/him Posted July 20, 2017 Report Share Posted July 20, 2017 Well, if was was an elim, I wouldn't kill you tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeldancer he/him Posted July 20, 2017 Report Share Posted July 20, 2017 5 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said: Well, if was was an elim, I wouldn't kill you tonight. Why not? I'm one of the more vocal villagers at this point. If I were an elim, I would totally kill me. (That makes no sense but whatever) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Araris Valerian he/him Posted July 20, 2017 Report Share Posted July 20, 2017 It takes all the fun out of the game to kill all the active players though. If you died, then Stick and I would be the two most active players left. When I'm in the top 2 most active players for a game, something has gone horribly wrong. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeldancer he/him Posted July 20, 2017 Report Share Posted July 20, 2017 Just now, Araris Valerian said: It takes all the fun out of the game to kill all the active players though. If you died, then Stick and I would be the two most active players left. When I'm in the top 2 most active players for a game, something has gone horribly wrong. Well mainly we've done that ourselves. And how do you know there are 4 elims left? Why not three elims? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
little wilson she/her Posted July 20, 2017 Report Share Posted July 20, 2017 23 minutes ago, The Flash said: Well mainly we've done that ourselves. And how do you know there are 4 elims left? Why not three elims? Depends on the way the GM chooses the number of eliminators, but most of the time, it's either by percentage or square root (I like percentage, but Meta swears by square root). Starting with 28 players, the percentage method would say somewhere between 17-25% elim rate (usually bad to go above 25% unless the team is nerfed, and it's similarly bad to go under 15% unless you weight things heavily in favor of the eliminators), so around 6 eliminators, ish. That's a good middle ground in that percentage range. Square root method says 5. However, we have neutrals in this game. That affects things a little bit, but not as much as you might think, since at the start of the game, the GM doesn't know how the neutrals will act, or how others will act toward the neutrals. You don't want to assume something and weight the game in that direction because if the neutrals don't do what you thought they would....game balance is now off. Best to make only minor tweaks. Like dropping a single eliminator. Percentage method now says 5, which puts it at about 18%, which is okay. Square root takes it to 4, but.....4 eliminators is only 14% and even if the square root method doesn't care about percentages, like I said, going under 15% is really risky unless you weight things heavily towards the eliminators. So 5 starting eliminators. That sounds right. 4 is just too low to start with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeldancer he/him Posted July 20, 2017 Report Share Posted July 20, 2017 2 hours ago, little wilson said: Depends on the way the GM chooses the number of eliminators, but most of the time, it's either by percentage or square root (I like percentage, but Meta swears by square root). Starting with 28 players, the percentage method would say somewhere between 17-25% elim rate (usually bad to go above 25% unless the team is nerfed, and it's similarly bad to go under 15% unless you weight things heavily in favor of the eliminators), so around 6 eliminators, ish. That's a good middle ground in that percentage range. Square root method says 5. However, we have neutrals in this game. That affects things a little bit, but not as much as you might think, since at the start of the game, the GM doesn't know how the neutrals will act, or how others will act toward the neutrals. You don't want to assume something and weight the game in that direction because if the neutrals don't do what you thought they would....game balance is now off. Best to make only minor tweaks. Like dropping a single eliminator. Percentage method now says 5, which puts it at about 18%, which is okay. Square root takes it to 4, but.....4 eliminators is only 14% and even if the square root method doesn't care about percentages, like I said, going under 15% is really risky unless you weight things heavily towards the eliminators. So 5 starting eliminators. That sounds right. 4 is just too low to start with. Ok i had never heard about the square root thing. I'll keep that in mind for the future. But it does mean we should have an even 50/50 chance about of hitting an elim. Best chances in the game so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrakeMarshall he/him Posted July 21, 2017 Report Share Posted July 21, 2017 Hmmm... So we are possibly at LyLo now? Well then. I'm quite sorry that I've been low on activity, and it probably doesn't look good that I am taking an interest in voting on a cycle that is likely LyLo. But... Is there something big I've missed that somehow clears Stick? Because if not, my prior suspicions still stand, and I think Stick still ought to be lynched. Just because I've been poorly informed about recent events, doesn't mean that the early game evidence about Stick is invalid. Also I'm a little curious about the way Araris voted last cycle, if just because I don't really see their reasoning for it. But I'll overlook that for the time being unless somebody else validates this as a reasonable suspicion. Hmmm... Some things to read through. Hopefully I'll have more to say later, when the day cycle comes around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparkrunner he/him Posted July 21, 2017 Report Share Posted July 21, 2017 On 7/6/2017 at 11:53 AM, Roadwalker said: For use in riling up mobs: Burn their warnings Burn their lies They will see the people rise! BURN! BURN! BURN! BURN! BURN! BURN! Come every workers, lab'rers son Come every man who'll hold a gun Come! The war has just begun! (Optionally add "Come on in let's have some fun!") BURN! BURN! BURN! BURN! BURN! BURN! In Elendel, the power seat Their blood will stain the city street Their blood will stain our booted feet! (reminds me of Dr. Seus for some reason) BURN! BURN! BURN! BURN! BURN! BURN! We will be the cleansing tide On Justice' mighty steed we ride Before us they shall run and hide! BURN! BURN! BURN! BURN! BURN! BURN! Clean the land with blood and fire Elendel will be their pyre Burn every sniveling noble liar (Replace sniveling if you want) BURN! BURN! BURN! BURN! BURN! BURN! Note- one of my friends came up with most of this and wanted me to post it here, so 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeldancer he/him Posted July 22, 2017 Report Share Posted July 22, 2017 Lylo? Unfamiliar with that term Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrakeMarshall he/him Posted July 22, 2017 Report Share Posted July 22, 2017 1 hour ago, The Flash said: Lylo? Unfamiliar with that term It's an abbreviation for lynch-or-lose. LyLo is the scenario where one incorrect lynch will result in the eliminators outnumbering the village. This isn't quite a textbook LyLo situation because there are neutrals who could theoretically give victory to either faction. However, I'm guessing the neutrals won't intervene, because they don't have much reason to do so that I am aware of. So the upshot is, it's kind of important to choose the lynch correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haelbarde he/him Posted July 22, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 22, 2017 Apologies again. New cycle coming shortly. PMs are closed. Always check thread before responding to PMs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haelbarde he/him Posted July 22, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 22, 2017 Day 8 I've had a whole bunch of stuff to get done over the last few days, but that's done in the next 24 hours. Should be able to finally get up to date with the writeups by the end of cycle. Seonid was killed. They were a Friend of the ABC, and a Tineye. PMs are closed. Always check the thread before using PMs. Cycle ends in ~46 hours. Player List Spoiler Jay (The Flash) - has at least two steelminds - a ring, and a helmet Name Name (Straw) - has a name ABC Roleless Albin Brodeur (Jondesu) - Skaa Crew Member ABC Rioter Siv (Cloudjumper) - has unrealistic expectations Luigi (Shqueeves) - roots for the underdog Edmond Dantès (asterion137) - is seeking revenge for a wrongful imprisonment ABC Scavenger Carcer (Paranoid King) - is all for rebelion Dariend Castel (StrikerEZ) - walks a dark path ABC Tineye Roger Elariel (Elenion) - is not the Pauper Noble ABC Smoker Alonine (BrightnessRadiant) - is probably not the real Eponine ABC Rioter Alrin (Arinian) Aimes (Araris Valerian) - in above his head, wants to fade away Bartolomeus Teki (randuir) - is slightly suspici... ABC Thug Darius Castel (Ecthelion III) - is self-centered, with a brother ABC Smoker Keera Wilde (little Wilson) - fights for the right to be free! Siena Mattel (Seonid) - is running away from love ABC Tineye Lukas Fehrweight (Drake Marshall) Altea Meza (Crimsn-Wolf) - here because she was told to Jack (A Joe in the Bush) Escaped Convict Dandi (_Stick_) Kliff (TheMightyLopen) - roped into manning the barricade, possibly by a cousin? ABC Roleless Garshin (Yitzi2) - thinks he's in Elendel when he really isn't... Infiltrator Roleless Rorik (Dalinar Kholin) Mykal (Amanuensis) - is a missionary of the path ABC Scavenger Phil (STINK) - is simply Phil Julie (Arraenae) - is an idealistic student fresh out of college ABC Ringleader Locke Tekiel (OrlokTsubodai) Suterna (Elbereth) Player List (Sorted) Spoiler Jay (The Flash) - has at least two steelminds - a ring, and a helmet Siv (Cloudjumper) - has unrealistic expectations Luigi (Shqueeves) - roots for the underdog Carcer (Paranoid King) - is all for rebelion Alrin (Arinian) Aimes (Araris Valerian) - in above his head, wants to fade away Keera Wilde (little Wilson) - fights for the right to be free! Lukas Fehrweight (Drake Marshall) Altea Meza (Crimsn-Wolf) - here because she was told to Dandi (_Stick_) Rorik (Dalinar Kholin) Phil (STINK) - is simply Phil Locke Tekiel (OrlokTsubodai) Suterna (Elbereth) Albin Brodeur (Jondesu) - Skaa Crew Member ABC Rioter Garshin (Yitzi2) - thinks he's in Elendel when he really isn't... Infiltrator Roleless Kliff (TheMightyLopen) - roped into manning the barricade, possibly by a cousin? ABC Roleless Name Name (Straw) - has a name ABC Roleless Mykal (Amanuensis) - is a missionary of the path ABC Scavenger Bartolomeus Teki (randuir) - is slightly suspici... ABC Thug Roger Elariel (Elenion) - is not the Pauper Noble ABC Smoker Julie (Arraenae) - is an idealistic student fresh out of college ABC Ringleader Dariend Castel (StrikerEZ) - walks a dark path ABC Tineye Edmond Dantès (asterion137) - is seeking revenge for a wrongful imprisonment ABC Scavenger Jack (A Joe in the Bush) Escaped Convict Alonine (BrightnessRadiant) - is probably not the real Eponine ABC Rioter Darius Castel (Ecthelion III) - is self-centered, with a brother ABC Smoker Siena Mattel (Seonid) - is running away from love ABC Tineye 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeldancer he/him Posted July 22, 2017 Report Share Posted July 22, 2017 Well I guess that sort of makes sense... So. Who are we going to lynch. We must get this right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Araris Valerian he/him Posted July 22, 2017 Report Share Posted July 22, 2017 I say we should lynch Flash. He's directed us onto villager targets for so many cycles now that the game is practically over. I know I said he was painfully village before, which fits his pattern of posting. But the results from his actions make me sure that he's an elim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeldancer he/him Posted July 22, 2017 Report Share Posted July 22, 2017 (edited) How so? Apparently Im ridiculously unlucky. If you lynch me, you will find that I am a villager. And we will lose this game. You know what is weird? Araris said if he was an elim, he wouldnt use the night kill on me. And now he is directing a lynch on me. I actually thought to myself "if the elims dont kill me, who would they kill?" obviously, seonid. he was the most villager, but less active. Also have you had any successful lynches? has anyone? I think you are an elim, but i will not vote yet. I have some time, so I will compile evidence to either refute or confirm my accusation. Ok, first off. You said if Ecth flipped village, you would be suspicious of Dalinar. What happened to that? Edited July 22, 2017 by The Flash 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Araris Valerian he/him Posted July 22, 2017 Report Share Posted July 22, 2017 I helped vote on Ecthelion, if that counts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeldancer he/him Posted July 22, 2017 Report Share Posted July 22, 2017 (edited) Yes, and 100% of your suspicions have turned out to be village. Arranae. Brightness. Im pretty sure stick is village. Drake is too misinformed to not be village. you seem to know how many elims there are, even if Wilson did back up your potential logic, a villager does not know for sure how many elims there are. And you aren't going after Dalinar like you said you would. You appear to be most suspicious of those who are the most active! I think that mindset, as a villager, is not a good one to have. Also you havent backed up any of your claims with evidence. In other words, the evidence (which is flimsy) for lynching me ( which is that all the lynches i have led have turned out badly for the village) is the same as for lynching you, in that your suspicions were no more helpful than mine. And at least i did something about my suspicions. Also ecth turned village! so your vote counts for nothing at all in terms of clearing you. I will now go check the vote on Yitzi. If it looks like you did a potential bus on him, Im voting on you. Well darn. He didn't even vote that cycle. That could be an attempt to distance himself from the lynch, because bussing often gets elims in trouble. Perhaps they decided to not even get involved? especially as Araris is so naturally invisible. Ok. So, if there is only 4 elims left, we should be able to figure some stuff out. I would group as Village: Me (I'll let my actions speak for themselves), Arinian (due to an early vote on YItzi), Stick (due to her constant discussion), and i think drake and dalinar are probably village. That leaves behind Araris, Shqueeves (I think he is elim because I asked him in PMs to come and share his thoughts, and hes been on the shard but hasn't said anything. I think that might be because it being his first game, and him being an elim might be overwhelming and make it scary to post), PK (who multiple people have expressed suspicions on, and i get a bad gut read from, I'll need to check his posts) and Cloudjumper, my suspicions who i think Araris indirectly defended. wouldnt it be interesting if cloudjumper turned elim? Then my lynch would finally have been productive. I was conviced by others to not go after Cloud, and instead go after Ecth. I find that suspicious. If araris turns elim, i think these people are worth a closer look at. I will do it this cycle (now that im pretty much unimportant in the MR and dead in LG36), because i have some time. I will look at PK first, because i havent really taken a close look at him yet. Edited July 22, 2017 by The Flash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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