Long Game 35: L35 Miserables

[asterion137 he/him]

25 minutes ago, little wilson said:

That's news to me. Pretty sure I didn't vote at all D1, much less in the CFD that took place while I was fast asleep at 3:00 am. And you have a townread on me? Heh. Fascinating, but okay.

sorry meant crimsn. Will edit

[BrightnessRadiant she/her]

@STINK at least Aman is doing something  ("Do you hear the sizzling burn...burning the stink who is a neutral") lol

Okay Yitzi analysis..

1. He's evil

Ok I'm done lolol jk

For real this time  (dreading this cuz I feel like he posted lots haha) come to think of it I'm sorry for anyone doing analysis on me too 

1. Says the pms from Straw weren't pointless. And that straw asked him for his thoughts on the game, but tbh he did that to me too and never really replied after I answered so it kinda seemed like probing for info (whether it was good or bad probing idk). -But I think this post would be considered mostly NAI cuz he could've just been looking at both view points.

2. Makes more points in Straw's favor about probing for info with good intentions could be villager alignment indicative for straw. (True..but he may have been a tad excessive as we've heard repeatedly lol) -kinda leaning neutral for this post cuz he could've been defending straw from either side of alignment)

3. Suggests that people shut Straw out of their group pms in case he did do it for nefarious reasons. (Slight village read for suggesting this)

4. Questions stick about her reactions to the straw and Stick discussion (nothing alignment indicative)

5. Says keeping suspicious villagers alive might benefit the elims leading to a mis-lynch at a more crucial point later in the game (kinda true but also the more people post the better read we can get on them so sometimes it's helpful to leave them alive as long as possible.) but kinda reading neutral for this cuz either alignment could have said it.

6. Mentions reasons why Joe might've role claimed convict. (NAI) and his next post concerns this too

7. Says Straw might be the PO

8. Says stink's pms were just for fun (they were fun until you quit talking to me  lolol @STINK)

9. Says that he thinks Rand might be the PO and is dangerous to the village cuz he might side with the elims near the end for a hammer (I doubt that's something an elim would have said about an actual neutral...reading neutral cuz he could've said it to get Rand lynched cuz he was a villager who was afraid of a rogue neutral or cuz he was an elim who knew that Rand was probably village)

10. Questions aman's sad face emoji about his vote on Rand lol (NIA)

11. Okay too many posts so I read them mostly and now to sum up lol... He's been very focused on having a negative attitude towards the neutrals but was voting on Rand who mostly did the same thing. He also voted Aman for defending Rand when during the cycle where Aman was giving said defense he removed his vote from Rand, saying that Aman's and others arguments made sense...but now he's questioning them? That seems a bit contradictory to me. He hasn't done a lot of analysis, but most of the players he did analyze were all pretty inactive or there wasn't much suspicion on them, which seems like a safe way out if your an elim. (Provide requested analysis but pick non dangerous targets)

Overall it seems like he's holding back from his normal advice and analysis and like he's choosing the safer routes. 

These are just a few reasons I found that I was suspicious of him.....if I remember anything else (tired brain rn) or something else comes up I'll try and comment on it. If he is an elim, I've got a few other players to look at based off of his posts.

Edit: Ninja'd by a few people cuz I started this post earlier and had to stop cuz of irl stuff

Edited June 30, 2017 by BrightnessRadiant

[asterion137 he/him]

1 hour ago, Elenion said:

Getting those QF17 vibes:

A wild STINK has appeared!

STINK uses Insult! It's not very effective...

Amanuensis uses Rebuttal!

The wild STINK has been silenced!

Pretty sure the honorable STINK cannot be silenced

*realizes stink hasn't posted

wow... I'm speechless

Edited June 30, 2017 by asterion137

[BrightnessRadiant she/her]

I'm not gonna lie, when they climbed on top of the coach I was like, "What are you doing?! The Lord Ruler is probably in there!" Hahahaha (this setting does kinda feel like the scene where the Lord Ruler shows up in the town square in the first book lol) 

Edit: oh and also @Seonid this was my reaction towards the rude people that offended you on the other mafia forum  

 

Edited June 30, 2017 by BrightnessRadiant

[Seonid he/him]

38 minutes ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

Edit: oh and also @Seonid this was my reaction towards the rude people that offended you on the other mafia forum  

 

Context - in the other forum I started playing at, I was informed that I should be "permalynched D1 until I learned how to play Mafia." Sorry if I've been self-conscious since then...

Guess they didn't like me or something.

Back to on-topic discussion, I'm feeling good about a Yitzi lynch and an asterion followup. I might even recommend asterion for a Coinshot kill. Just a thought - and if you have your own suspicions that are better, please go on those.

[Amanuensis he/him]

14 minutes ago, Seonid said:

Context - in the other forum I started playing at, I was informed that I should be "permalynched D1 until I learned how to play Mafia." Sorry if I've been self-conscious since then...

Guess they didn't like me or something.

Back to on-topic discussion, I'm feeling good about a Yitzi lynch and an asterion followup. I might even recommend asterion for a Coinshot kill. Just a thought - and if you have your own suspicions that are better, please go on those.

Huh. Yeah, one thing I can't stand is a lack of civility. I wouldn't take anything they said to heart. Different communities play these games differently. I'd be lying if I didn't say I was curious which forum this was, though.

I mean, there's still a chance Yitzi is village. I feel like his post during the previous night turn about understanding why eliminators are afraid of me was a huge slip. I can't really see that train of thought ever crossing the mind of a villager. Then he had a really weird post a couple messages later that basically become a IKYK tangent... it was at that point I was confident my initial read of him D1 was accurate.

If Yitzi is evil, we can discuss coinshoting Aster in the night thread. The problem is, I expect the eliminators to threaten the Pauper/Convict/Child with death if they don't protect him, assuming he really is evil. So doing that probably won't work. Thing is, I really don't want us to just lock in onto lynching Aster tomorrow. If I had to give percentages to his alignment, I would rate him at a 65% chance of being evil.

I'll leave another list of players who I think should be the focus of discussion, and hope that another player can take the mantle of pushing everyone to provide their opinions.

Regardless, someone will have to be shot, since the Ringleader cannot hold more than 1 charge at a time and there's no way the eliminators won't attack me tonight / force the Thief's Child not to protect me. But to be honest, I'm perfectly okay with that. I used to get upset over the whole dying thing, but I've recently accepted that it's just my role in these games to make sure they start off as strong as possible and soak up an early kill. I genuinely hope I'm on the right track here so that my public role claim wasn't for absolutely nothing.

Edited June 30, 2017 by Amanuensis

[Orlok Tsubodai he/him]

Currently with El in California. I've just arrived, it's 4am UK time, and I'm borrowing El's phone to make this post, so don't expect me to be on again this turn.

[Amanuensis he/him]

Just now, OrlokTsubodai said:

Currently with El in California. I've just arrived, it's 4am UK time, and I'm borrowing El's phone to make this post, so don't expect me to be on again this turn.

That's awesome! I didn't know you'd be visiting the US! Have fun you two!

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

Okay, so we're lynching Yitzi instead then. Works for me. Asterion.

I'll try to do some serious analysis during the Night Turn.

[Stick. she/her]

5 hours ago, Arraenae said:

CFD means Chinese fire drill, right?

Yup

4 hours ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

For real this time  (dreading this cuz I feel like he posted lots haha) come to think of it I'm sorry for anyone doing analysis on me too 

Exactly why I've been delaying that

3 hours ago, Seonid said:

Back to on-topic discussion, I'm feeling good about a Yitzi lynch and an asterion followup. I might even recommend asterion for a Coinshot kill. Just a thought - and if you have your own suspicions that are better, please go on those.

Sadly there is no Coinshot :| The Ringleader is the only one with a kill, iirc.

 

 

[BrightnessRadiant she/her]

35 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Exactly why I've been delaying that

Which one...me or Yitzi lol (or both )

Sadly there is no Coinshot :| The Ringleader is the only one with a kill, iirc.

I think that's what he meant lol

 

Bolded text is mine 

[Stick. she/her]

You

Oh okay lol

[DeTess she/her]

I said I'd look at Yitzi, and I have, though I had to rush through his posts of this day (he posted a lot).

I've mentioned this before, but D1 I got a village vibe from him. Yes, he voted on me, but now that I've looked it over more closely he seemed to have been using the same reasoning I used to vote for Joe against me, and turn-about is fair play, I guess. His discussion with Aman about me also made sense, and him backing off when all his concerns and suspicions had been treated makes me lean slightly village on him (an elim would probably have tried to dodge a discussion with Aman if he though he could get away with it).

N1 he did say those odd things about the elims being afraid of Aman, which make me lean a bit elim on him. I thought it was especially notable that he could dig up that quote within one minute of Flash asking about it.

Based purely on D1 and N1, which I went through with a fine comb, I end up with a Neutral read.

Taking D2 into account, I still don't really see why a lot of people are extremely suspicious of him. Trying to go after Aman would have been an odd thing to do if we assume he is an elim and his comment about Aman being scary came from the doc: if the elims are so scared of Aman, why would they try to take him down in a straight up battle of reasoning, instead of using the elim kill? That would only make sense if they had strong reason to believe he was a thug with a large supply of pewter. Going after Aman was odd, but he wasn't the only one (Seonid, for example), so it might really have just been a villager who thought he'd caught an elim. Or it could have been an elim attempt to get him lynched because he thought his argument was good enough. I really don't know at this point.

Overall read: Neutral/leaning very slightly elim.

I might change my mind if I look through D2 more closely, but at the moment I'm not suspicious enough of yitzi to change my vote.

Edited June 30, 2017 by randuir

[Haelbarde he/him]

Aaaah. Where did the day go!?

Cycle is over.

[Haelbarde he/him]

Night 2

9 PM:
Once again, the whispers about traitors sprang up, but this time they focused on just two names. Garshin once again found himself front and centre on the barricade, alongside Endmond Dantès.

 

10:15 PM:

A messenger from one of the nearer barricades arrived with news from a number of the barricades. Not as many of the population had joined the fight as they hoped, but the plan was to continue fighting to show that the fight could be won. As of yet, none of the other barricades they had contact with had fallen, with one having managed to push back their attackers even.

 

11 PM:

A tussle at the barricade resulting in Garshin falling off the top of the barricade. But instead of scrambling back over the barricade, he began running towards the enemy lines unarmed with his arms above his head, something glinting off something held in his hand. A shot rang out from the barricade, and Garshin dropped to the ground dead, the constable badge sliding from his hand.

 

“Filthy traitor,” the gunman muttered.

---

Yitzi2 has been lynched. They were an Infiltrator and Roleless.

Vote Tally (with history)
StrikerEZ(0): Aman{1}
The Flash(0): Lopen{1}, Stick{1}
Yitzi(12): PK{1}, Arinian{2}, Dalinar{1}, Asterion{4}, Rae{3}, Flash{2}, Striker{2}, Brightness{2}, Stick{2}, Seonid{2}, Elenion{1}, Lopen{3}
STINK(1): Ecthelion{1}
Aman(0): Yitzi{1}, Seonid{1}, Asterion{2}
Rand(0): Rae{1}, Asterion{1}, Orlok{1}, Joe{1}, Crimsn{1}, Asterion{3}
Lopen(0): Flash{1}, Arinian{1}
Asterion(3): Brightness{1}, Rand{1}, Lopen{2}, Aman{2}, Yitzi{2}, Straw{1}, Rae{2}, Striker{1}
Straw(0): STINK{1}
BrightnessRadiant(1): STINK{2}
Crimsn(1): Cloudjumper{1}

Vote Tally
Yitzi(12): PK, Arinian, Dalinar, Asterion, Rae, Flash, Striker, Brightness, Stick, Seonid, Elenion, Lopen
Asterion(3): Rand, Aman, Yitzi
STINK(1): Ecthelion
BrightnessRadiant(1): STINK
Crimsn(1): Cloudjumper

Tin has been burnt, and PMs are open this cycle.

Updated countdown :

I need to confer with Doc about rollover this cycle, but I may need to bring the clock forward anyway this cycle by 2-3 hours. 

Also, I'm going to be out for the next few hours, so won't necessarily be able to deal with problems if I got something wrong with rollover.

As a note, going forward, it'd help me out if you could use this green, not this one, when retracting votes - I find the latter actually quite hard to spot when skimming through 12-14 pages of text for votes... :/

Player List

Spoiler

1. Jay (The Flash) - has at least two steelminds - a ring, and a helmet
2. Name Name (Straw) - has a name
3. Albin Brodeur (Jondesu) - Skaa Crew Member  ABC Rioter
4. Siv (Cloudjumper) - has unrealistic expectations
5. Luigi (Shqueeves) - roots for the underdog
6. Edmond Dantès (asterion137) - is seeking revenge for a wrongful imprisonment
7. Carcer (Paranoid King) - is all for rebelion
8. Dariend Castel (StrikerEZ) - walks a dark path
9. Roger Elariel (Elenion) - is not the Pauper Noble
10. Alonine (BrightnessRadiant) - is probably not the real Eponine
11. Alrin (Arinian)
12. Aimes (Araris Valerian) - in above his head, wants to fade away
13. Bartolomeus Teki (randuir) - is slightly suspici...
14. Darius Castel (Ecthelion III) - is self-centered, with a brother
15. Keera Wilde (little Wilson) - fights for the right to be free!
16. Siena Mattel (Seonid) - is running away from love
17. Lukas Fehrweight (Drake Marshall)
18. Altea Meza (Crimsn-Wolf) - here because she was told to
19. Jack (A Joe in the Bush)
20. Dandi (_Stick_)
21. Kliff (TheMightyLopen) - roped into manning the barricade, possibly by a cousin?
22. Garshin (Yitzi2) - thinks he's in Elendel when he really isn't... Infiltrator Roleless
23. Rorik (Dalinar Kholin)
24. Mykal (Amanuensis) - is a missionary of the path
25. Phil (STINK) - is simply Phil
26. Julie (Arraenae) - is an idealistic student fresh out of college
27. Locke Tekiel (OrlokTsubodai)
28. Suterna (Elbereth)

 

Edited July 2, 2017 by Alvron

[DeTess she/her]

I quickly checked, and the vote that properly brought Yitzi in the lead over Asterion was @StrikerEZ. The votes after that Where BR, Seonid, Elenion and Lopen. Aman seems to be convinced Lopen is good, and Elenion had a reasonably good reason to come late in the voting as well, but I'm going to have to take a good look at Seonid and BR when I've got the time.

Also, the voting at the end of D1 should be re-examined, as it is now not unreasonable to think that it was an elim-backed effort to ensure Yitzi didn't die. The votes on Jondesu where:

Quote

Jondesu(5): Joe, Crimsn, Orlok, Stick, Brightness

Joe has claimed Neutral, and so has Orlok, so that leaves Crimsn, Stick and Brightness on this particular vote as possible elims stepping in to try to save Yitzi. I kinda don't like that BR features in both these lists, but I've had village reads on her until now, so it could just be coincidence. I'm adding Crimsn and Stick to my list of people I should take another look at, though.

Edit: Seonid did vote on Yitzi D1 as well, so based on that he can actually be considered village, as I wouldn't expect elims to really participate in a potential lynch of one of their own D1. 

Edited June 30, 2017 by randuir
spelling

[BrightnessRadiant she/her]

@randuir technically this lynch I was Ninja'd by like 4 people while voting ha ha 

Edit: I read Aman's post and I was like "yeah, imma switch since I'm suspicious of Yitzi AND asterion, but Aman wants me to vote Yitzi now so sure." And then posted and was like "whoa!" Ninja'd by tons of peeps 

Edit #2 cuz you edited your post lol....I also voted Yitzi day 1 but changed cuz I always doubt my suspicions day 1 and I broke the tie.

Edit #3 thank goodness yitzi was actually evil lol...now to look at his posts... again....*sigh lol 

Edited June 30, 2017 by BrightnessRadiant

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

1 hour ago, randuir said:

I quickly checked, and the vote that properly brought Yitzi in the lead over Asterion was @StrikerEZ. The votes after that Where BR, Seonid, Elenion and Lopen. Aman seems to be convinced Lopen is good, and Elenion had a reasonably good reason to come late in the voting as well, but I'm going to have to take a good look at Seonid and BR when I've got the time.

Also, the voting at the end of D1 should be re-examined, as it is now not unreasonable to think that it was an elim-backed effort to ensure Yitzi didn't die. The votes on Jondesu where:

Joe has claimed Neutral, and so has Orlok, so that leaves Crimsn, Stick and Brightness on this particular vote as possible elims stepping in to try to save Yitzi. I kinda don't like that BR features in both these lists, but I've had village reads on her until now, so it could just be coincidence. I'm adding Crimsn and Stick to my list of people I should take another look at, though.

Edit: Seonid did vote on Yitzi D1 as well, so based on that he can actually be considered village, as I wouldn't expect elims to really participate in a potential lynch of one of their own D1. 

Yeah, I figure me, Seonid, and Brightness are all pretty cleared at this point for our votes on Yitzi close to the end of D1. Bussing is a thing of course, but they really don't seem like bus votes to me. Maybe Seonid, but I really don't think so.

Anyways, besides those, I'll put up my reads later. I'd like to do some review now that we know Yitzi's alignment.

[DeTess she/her]

3 minutes ago, TheMightyLopen said:

Yeah, I figure me, Seonid, and Brightness are all pretty cleared at this point for our votes on Yitzi close to the end of D1. Bussing is a thing of course, but they really don't seem like bus votes to me. Maybe Seonid, but I really don't think so.

Anyways, besides those, I'll put up my reads later. I'd like to do some review now that we know Yitzi's alignment.

Yeah, I've just had a PM with brightness, and I'm convinced she didn't back off from Yitzi on D1 to save him. I'll take a look at Stick and crimsn in a bit.

Edited June 30, 2017 by randuir

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

Just now, randuir said:

Yeah, I've had a PM with brightness, and I'm convinced she didn't back off from Yitzi on D1 to save him. I'll take a look at Stick and crimsn in a bit.

It's not like he was in danger of being lynched in those last few minutes, so yeah, I don't see it as defending him. Rather, I'd think that she'd have kept her vote on Yitzi instead of changing it to a villager at the end.

Stick and crimsn, eh, not sure about either of them honestly. I was a little suspicious of Stick early on, but haven't really noticed anything off afterwards. Crimsn is reading more village than elim, I think. But yeah, I really should check back through things before I give final verdicts.

[Arrae]

I'm going to finish up my D1 network analysis (today, I hope. Seriously, trawling through 23 pages for D1 is insane.). Should be able to get something up about Yitzi.

[Steeldancer he/him]

Yay we got an elim. I am so sorry, but I will not be at all on today. My parents decided to make today a "screen free day" in our home, and there is nothing I can do about it. I will be back tomorrow, so I'll be back on (hopefully) before the cycle ends.

[asterion137 he/him]

@Haelbarde i switched my vote to yitzi around page 9 of D2

[Haelbarde he/him]

7 minutes ago, asterion137 said:

@Haelbarde i switched my vote to yitzi around page 9 of D2

So you did. I'll fix that now.

Edit: Actually, I don't care to wrangle with the mobile editor so I'll fix it tomorrow morning.

Edited June 30, 2017 by Haelbarde

[Dalinar Kholin]

Did Straw not end up voting on anyone? And how clear do we think it was to the elim's that Yitizi would die after Aman made his post? Aman, why did you end up voting on Asterion?