Mid-Range Game 21: The Battle for Nebrask

[Guest]

RP,

---

                   Conner witnessed the murder, and winced. the poor guy didn't deserve that. He looked around and saw the faces of the people around him and notice a few looking sick. Later he noticed one sitting on the floor, then getting up with eyes of fire. She stormed off and Connor heard "The innocent WILL be avenged."  Conner saw her and another grab some shovels and, deciding that it was the right thing to do, he joined them.

Edited April 21, 2017 by Ornstein

[Paranoid King he/him]

12 hours ago, Jondesu said:

PK, how is this a helpful pattern of voting?  It lets you "put pressure" on people, sure, but in a nonsensical way (who can defend themselves against something like that?) and it lets you seem to be involved without really having to justify much.  Granted, I haven't played with you much (at all?), so maybe this is normal for you, but it strikes me as something an Elim would try.  I'd like to see why you think voting on people in order to build up votes on them is helpful, especially since that's a good tactic to avoid giving us information about you except that you're not trying to analyze and vote appropriately.

People who are voted on tend to defend themselves the same way, whether they're villager or elim. I'm really bad at finding people by seeing how they respond to votes. However, if an eliminator is on a team, their friends will try to defend them. If I vote on someone on D1 and they are bandwagoned, I can assume that they're a villager, because they don't have any friends to draw attention away from them. If there's a close call, I'm more likely to think of them, and those that bailed them out, as elims. This, of course, only works if there's an actual threat to the person. if one random person is voting on them they won't care. It only works if a few votes get piled onto them. Therefore my tactic on D1.

BTW, this is an Even cycle

Spoiler

If your previous result was Even, flip 2 coins here: http://justflipacoin.com/

If either coin is Tails, draw a line of warding.

If not, do something else this cycle. Your result is now Odd.

Those who defended last cycle, (Odd players,) you can't defend this cycle. Do something else instead.

 

[Stick. she/her]

Looks like I'm getting lynched. I'll be saying "I told you so" from the dead doc in three hours 

[Orlok Tsubodai]

Right. Apologies again for the paucity of my posts recently.

Working through the thread so far then, I have some questions.

@TheMightyLopen in your first post, you both stated that you believed there to be 3 eliminators, and that 5 lines of warding would be sufficient each cycle. Given your proposal of 5, it seems to me like you’re fairly certain in your belief - why? 5 lines of warding isn’t very conservative at all, and would not be sufficient with 4 forgotten. I’m mildly suspicious of you for advocating this.

@Silverblade5, you suggested that we either use lines of warding, or protect those who are. How do you suggest those not using liens of warding identify players to protect?

@Paranoid King, you also appear to be certain that 5 lines of warding is enough - I’m mildly suspicious that you’re supporting a narrative agreed with Lopen. Given the risk of forgotten and non-rithmatsists in the first 5 players, why did you think your plan would be safe?

@TheMightyLopen, your second post, to me suggests a plan that would materially increase village odds of success, although does draw near the idea of dictatorship. I’m somewhat less suspicious of you following this post.

@Silverblade5, your vote on Straw seemed like an eagerness to be seen to be doing something - I believe he posted before all roll PMs were out. Why did you not engage in the discussion that was ongoing?

@randuir, you mentioned an alternative plan to coin flipping. I’d be curious to hear what it is.

@TheMightyLopen, a futher thought, given your defence of accountability. Doesn’t it also give the eliminators information as to when their partners are warding, allowing for better timed lines of vigour?

@_Stick_, just before I voted for you last cycle, you mentioned that someone in the original planning was likely to be evil, but then said that you hadn’t spotted anyone making a plan that seemed helpful, but wasn’t, which you claim is what normally makes you suspicious. Why make your statement without any evidence?

@Amanuensis, I’m interested in why you voted for Straw. Given we’d previously established the importance of an information generating lynch, voting on a player not known for long posts doesn’t seem to me to be the best way to generate discussion - why did you do it?

I’m about halfway through D1, and making good progress. I need to do LG32 rollover, and have promised El not to do analysis past midnight, given my experience in AG3, but aim to be on top of the thread by the end of tomorrow.

Thoughts from the analysis so far are:

A moderate village read on Elenion - he’s made a few excellent suggestions regarding organising the village defence, particularly which redistribution, which harms the ability of eliminators to focus on one of the two warding groups

A slightly milder village read on Aman, who has been sensible throughout, and has seemingly made an effort to generated discussion with his own posts. There is a difference between sensible analysis and alignment, clearly, and as always I’m wary of Aman, but analysis so far and my gut read suggest to me that he’s village.

I’m wary of Lopen from the posts I’ve seen, mostly for the reasons set out in the questions I’ve asked him above, but not significantly so. I’ve already mentioned a minor suspicion of a narrative being pushed by Lopen and Paranoid King, but think that on balance it’s just my being paranoid. 

Again, I’m nowhere near caught up on the thread, but did want to contribute what I could to discussion.

 

 

[BrightnessRadiant she/her]

@_Stick_ for what it's worth I don't understand a lot of the suspicion on you but it does look like the lynch is irreversible at this point and I'll be sorry to lose another fellow villager if you do turn out to be innocent. 

It's really annoying to me that I just have gut reads on almost everyone lol....could the Elims be a little more obliging and be more obvious from now on please  I stinkin can't figure y'all out! That being said I am voting for Joe because of a gut read but also because of reasons I mentioned in an earlier post.. @A Joe in the Bush you did answer my questions from my last post, but I still wasn't satisfied...sorry..can't shake my suspicions

 

no one has posted a vote tally yet so here it is....hopefully i got it right...please correct if it's off                                                                                                                

Stick -   Paranoid King, Ornstein, Frozen Mint, A Joe in a bush, Elenion, Randuir

Joe  -    Elenion, Lopen, Brightness Radiant

PK   -    Jondesu

HH   -   Stick

 

Edited April 21, 2017 by BrightnessRadiant

[Mint11 she/her]

22 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Also, Straw is dead he was just lynched. Did you mean someone else, or did you just not notice?

... Oops.

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

Orlok, my post clearly explains that 5 Lines of Warding is the lowest amount I'd ever want to be up. I was trying to make it clear that we needed to make sure we had a consistent way to put up sufficient Lines of Warding, meaning 5 Lines or higher(and in my post I said it would be better if we could make more, but because of not being able to make the same Line twice in a row, I wasn't sure how good we could manage that). So by no means was I advocating that we figure out how to make 5 Lines of Warding and only 5 each Cycle.

Honestly, my idea about the pairings wasn't thought out completely. You have a point that if we did do that, the Forgotten might be able to better time their Lines of Vigor. Mostly I was still arguing the pairs plan after Len put his coin plan forward because I thought it might be a good idea to have 2 plans around so players could think through them for themselves and decide which one they thought was better, which could give us some insight for how they were thinking. Besides that, I was also hoping my plan might make the Forgotten take actions that might incriminate them if we caught them using Lines of Making.

[Sart he/him]

More Rule Clarifications:

Quote

If someone who protects themselves by Lines of Forbiddence gets attacked, are they notified? What if someone is protected by someone else; is the Rithmatist who drew the line alerted, or the player?

No one is alerted. You will not be notified if your Line of Forbiddance is destroyed by a Line of Vigor either.

Quote

Will the Forgotten conversion be mentioned in the write-up?

Absolutely. The chalklings would be swarming into the camp. That's a little hard not to notice. In addition, the camp will be alerted if the conversion was stopped by an Acid-Specialist. You'll also get an admonish to draw your lines of warding.

Quote

How could a teaching action fail?

There are 4 ways a teaching action can fail.

1. The person being targeted already had the Specialization the Non-Rithmatist was attempting to teach. (They can't learn what they already know)
2. The person being targeted was a Non-Rithmatist (They can't use Rithmatic lines, so they won't learn a thing)
3. The person being targeted was protected by a powered up Line of Forbiddance (They can't hear instructions through their defenses)
4. The Non-Rithmatist was blocked by a powered-up Line of Vigor. (The role-blocker distracted the Non-Rithmatist somehow, and glanced at their book)

Quote

If a Line of Making is blocked by something (Powered up Line of Forbiddance or Powered up Line of Vigor), what would be returned?

The Line would return no action.

Quote

Can the same person use the Forgotten kill twice in a row? Can they use Rithmatics while they're doing it?

Yes to the first, no to the second. The Forgotten kill is not a Rithmatic action, so it can be used twice in a row. However, it is still an action, so the Forgotten making the kill can't draw Rithmatics at the same time.

[Paranoid King he/him]

1 hour ago, OrlokTsubodai said:

@Paranoid King, you also appear to be certain that 5 lines of warding is enough - I’m mildly suspicious that you’re supporting a narrative agreed with Lopen. Given the risk of forgotten and non-rithmatists in the first 5 players, why did you think your plan would be safe?

Well, we have 16 people right now. If everyone protects as much as possible, we'd have 8 people protecting every cycle. According to the current plan, we have 6 people, which gives us a little more freedom to plan actions. Even if half of those people can't or won't protect, (Unlikely, because that would mean, on average, half the people currently in the game would be inactive, forgotten, or non-rithmatists,) we still have 3 people to protect us. I think that's just enough for now. I doubt we have more than that many starting eliminators in a conversion game.

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

22 minutes ago, Paranoid King said:

Well, we have 16 people right now. If everyone protects as much as possible, we'd have 8 people protecting every cycle. According to the current plan, we have 6 people, which gives us a little more freedom to plan actions. Even if half of those people can't or won't protect, (Unlikely, because that would mean, on average, half the people currently in the game would be inactive, forgotten, or non-rithmatists,) we still have 3 people to protect us. I think that's just enough for now. I doubt we have more than that many starting eliminators in a conversion game.

The Forgotten could use Lines of Vigor on some of those using Lines of Warding though, and it's possible there could be 4 Forgotten. There's no way for them to know whose making the Lines of Warding or how many there are, so I feel like it's unlikely they'll do anything too dangerous this early. Just saying, only 3 Lines of Warding would be very worrisome. >>

Also, in case I die, I'm suspicious of Joe and Aman right now. Aman said he's a little suspicious of Joe, but then chose to vote and focus on Stick(and now everyone's piled on to Stick). I feel like he's trying to draw attention away from Joe. Of course, if Stick is a Forgotten, that'll change my opinion quite a bit.

[Sart he/him]

Whoops. Let time get away from me. Cycle is now closed. Write-up coming soon.

[Sart he/him]

There were few things worse than a gossip, Ryth decided. That woman, Stick, certainly fell under that category. Although she was extremely quiet during the attack, she wouldn't shut up afterwards. Unfortunately, she wouldn't talk about what mattered. They were trying to find the Forgotten, not chat about handsome Knight-Senators. It had certainly gotten the town riled up. She had to be hiding something, they reasoned. He didn't want to think about what happened next. Being ganged up like that. He shuddered. At least it had been a quick death. It wasn't like they could stand around and do nothing. Strike first, that was his motto. At least, that's what Professor Nalizar taught him. Come to think of it, hadn't Stick been in that class. It didn't matter now. You always had to be thinking of the next step.

The next step, for him at least, was investigating the Circle. Who had enough firepower to blow it to smithereens? The whole set up was screwy. He started tracing the Line, making sure no gaps were present. That's when he found it. It was a hole about a foot across. If the chalklings wanted to, they could surge through it, but they were still. They were silent, as if waiting for something.

Engrossed by the chalklings, Ryth didn't notice the person standing behind him. He certainly didn't see them grab a brick, and clock him over the head. He wasn't aware of his body being thrown into the Circle. He couldn't watch as the killer sealed the Line behind him. He couldn't even scream before the chalklings ate their next meal. His corpse was shredded in a matter of minutes. His killer smiled, and then vanished into the darkness.

Vote Count:
Stick (6): Elenion, Joe, Frozen Mint, Paranoid King, Ornstein, Randuir
Hemalurgic Headshot (1): Stick
Paranoid King (1): Jondesu
Joe (2): Lopen, Brightness Radiant

Stick was lynched. She was a Village Duelist.
Ryth was killed, and eaten by the Chalklings. He was a Village Duelist.

Player List:

  Hide contents

1. Elenion: Isaac "The Hammer" Jones
2. Amanuensis: Cole
3. Silverblade5: Ryth Village Duelist
4. _Stick_: Stick Village Duelist
5. Darkness Ascendant: K'Sarben Non-Rithmatist
6. Seonid: Shem Onidsen
7. Jondesu: Kyle
8. Hemalurgic_Headshot: Gunther the Slow
9. OrlokTsubodai: Locke
10. A Joe in the Bush: Joel
11. Ecthelion III: Daggertongue
12. Frozen Mint: Shanice
13. Paranoid King: Gimmel
14. Ornstein: Conner
15. Straw: Regem Noctis Village Blackmailer
16. randuir: Neil Kores
17. TheMightyLopen: Lance Willis
18. Brightness Radiant: Amelia

The cycle will end 48 hours from now on Sunday, 9 PM Eastern Time.

Edited April 22, 2017 by Sart
Wrong day for timer

[Hemalurgic Headshot he/him]

We are dropping like flies!

And it appears my prediction was correct. Straw, Stick, and Silver were all Villagers. Well, Joe hasn't been cleared yet, so I suppose it isn't complete. 

Um, I don't know what to say.

[Elenion he/him]

@Sart I think your timer is off. It says 23 hours, not a day and 23.

 

Stick wasn't evil. That's not good. According to Orlok's projections, now we only have one more day before we start being in serious danger of conversions. In light of Stick's alignment, it's time for me to reevaluate some of my reads.

Joe: my primary reason for voting on Joe last cycle was because he tipped the lynch away from Stick. Now that Stick has been confirmed village, I'm back to a neutral view of Joe.

Lopen: I'm going to need some more time to analyze him. I hope to have a follow-up post tonight all about Lopen.

HH: Stick's final vote. I haven't read too much on him either way, but might be someone worth taking a closer look at.

Those who voted on Stick: I'm not suspicious of you any more because of it, seeing as I did the same thing.

PK: I can't remember what Jon's point was for voting on PK, but I'm reading village on him thus far by gut.

That's all for now; I'll vote later this cycle after more discussion has been done.

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

2 hours ago, Hemalurgic_Headshot said:

We are dropping like flies!

And it appears my prediction was correct. Straw, Stick, and Silver were all Villagers. Well, Joe hasn't been cleared yet, so I suppose it isn't complete. 

Um, I don't know what to say.

I feel like if HH was a Forgotten, he wouldn't so blatantly point out how he was right about the dead villagers. Sure, sometimes eliminators say they think someone is a villager to gain credibility, but this doesn't feel like that. There's no subtlety to it. That's my read of the situation at least.

2 hours ago, Elenion said:

@Sart I think your timer is off. It says 23 hours, not a day and 23.

 

Stick wasn't evil. That's not good. According to Orlok's projections, now we only have one more day before we start being in serious danger of conversions. In light of Stick's alignment, it's time for me to reevaluate some of my reads.

Joe: my primary reason for voting on Joe last cycle was because he tipped the lynch away from Stick. Now that Stick has been confirmed village, I'm back to a neutral view of Joe.

Lopen: I'm going to need some more time to analyze him. I hope to have a follow-up post tonight all about Lopen.

HH: Stick's final vote. I haven't read too much on him either way, but might be someone worth taking a closer look at.

Those who voted on Stick: I'm not suspicious of you any more because of it, seeing as I did the same thing.

PK: I can't remember what Jon's point was for voting on PK, but I'm reading village on him thus far by gut.

That's all for now; I'll vote later this cycle after more discussion has been done.

Only thing I wanted to comment on was your wording about Stick being "confirmed" village and not "revealed" village. You suspected her, and voted to kill her, so the wording seems strange to me. Maybe you already knew her alignment, hm?

I get a post all about me? I'm looking forward to it! XD

@Sart, in the write-up, you say Silverblade was killed and eaten by Chalklings. Is this how every Forgotten kill is going to show up as, meaning DA wasn't killed by the Forgotten? Or was it just flavor text?

Still want to lynch Joe. Just so you all won't worry about me not talking about other players though, I intend to do some player by player analysis later tonight.

[Paranoid King he/him]

Sorry, Stick. That was probably my bad.

My top suspicion is Orinstein, just because I'm not sure if we've actually discussed him yet. He didn't vote on D1 or D2, presumably because we hadn't even gotten close to an eliminator. On D3 he voted for Stick. After Orinstein, I guess Joe and Randuir are my next suspects. I consider Lopen cleared.

This is an Odd cycle:

Spoiler

If your previous result was Odd, flip 2 coins here: http://justflipacoin.com/

If either coin is Heads, draw a line of warding.

If not, do something else this cycle. Your result is now Even.

Those who defended last cycle, (Even players,) you can't defend this cycle. Do something else instead.

 

[Ecthelion III he/him]

Elenion. He tries to get a lynch going on Stick C1, then C2 says he's still suspicious of Stick but doesn't want to bandwagon on her, this coming from the Bandwagoneer. Something's definitely off.

[Elenion he/him]

@TheMightyLopen  I wasn't paying very close attention to my language when I wrote that, so I can't tell you why I used "confirmed". In my mind that post used "cleared".

@Ecthelion III  I think you skimmed the thread too quickly, because both of those points you bring up are strawman arguments. I didn't "try to get a lynch going on Stick"; I joined an existing pair of votes. The lynch was already going towards either Stick or Straw; I just found what I thought was decent evidence and followed it. C2 I decided not to let the Stick bandwagon get out of hand too fast because I didn't want it to kill discussion. I've explained good bandwagoning versus bad bandwagoning in at least two previous games that you've been in. It's not like I went back on my suspicions; by the end of the cycle my vote was on Stick.

 

It's nearly midnight and I still haven't gotten far on analyzing Lopen, so that isn't happening tonight. Maybe tomorrow, when I get some time.

[DeTess she/her]

I'll finish my list of opinions on people this cycle. I ran into a lack-of-sleep issue yesterday, and it's been my experience that I should avoid posting stuff when I'm really tired. For now I'll respond to Orlok's questions and say some other stuff (I think).

First, @OrlokTsubodai, the plan I'd mentioned was something I'd actually started on before the game started. My idea was that each cycle 6 people would publicly announce that they would be drawing lines of warding. this would make it impossible for the elims to disrupt the defense without one of them announcing they would be joining the defense, and with only 6 people to scrutinize in a case like that, it would make it possible to find an elim if the defenses did fall. However, another player joined before the game started, and with 18 players I can't assume that there are only 3 elims. Having 8 people publicly declare would only be sustainable for 2 cycles, and it would be harder to pick out 1 elim from the group if it came down to it.

4 hours ago, Paranoid King said:

Sorry, Stick. That was probably my bad.

My top suspicion is Orinstein, just because I'm not sure if we've actually discussed him yet. He didn't vote on D1 or D2, presumably because we hadn't even gotten close to an eliminator. On D3 he voted for Stick. After Orinstein, I guess Joe and Randuir are my next suspects. I consider Lopen cleared.

Might I ask why you think stick's lynch was your fault? You weren't the only one to vote on her, and you didn't break any ties either. On that matter, could you expand on your suspicions of Joe and me, and about what makes you consider Lopen cleared?

I had another observation I'd wanted to make, but I'd like to hear Sart's answer to Lopen's question first, as the observation hinges on DA having been an elim kill.

[Paranoid King he/him]

8 hours ago, randuir said:

Might I ask why you think stick's lynch was your fault? You weren't the only one to vote on her, and you didn't break any ties either. On that matter, could you expand on your suspicions of Joe and me, and about what makes you consider Lopen cleared?

Well, stick was the only person I seriously voted on on D1 and D2.

To tell the truth, I'm mostly just suspicious of Joe because everyone else is suspicious of him. I'm suspicious of you because nobody is suspicious of you. So you're really just 2 people I want to look closer at.

As for Lopen, I've gotten a good vibe from him. I'm usually able to tell when he's an eliminator, but I didn't get that sense from him. The only thing that made me suspicious of him was that he defended Stick. So now that stick's a confirmed villager, I think Lopen's good

[Jondesu he/him]

I'm also fairly certain that Lopen is innocent now, until the first conversion of course. I'm still suspicious of you, though, @Paranoid King. Your explanation of why you jumped onto the bandwagon before doesn't allay those suspicions, so unless I find a better suspicion, my vote goes on you again. I don't want to get stuck tunneling on someone again (been there, done that), but at the same time...I was right some of those times, and this is more than just my gut.

Paranoid King 

[Elenion he/him]

Okay, my analysis of Lopen is done, and it's a behemoth. Here goes:

Quote

Okay, first thing we need to figure out is Lines of Warding to prevent any conversions. This means we need to estimate how many Forgotten we think there are right now. I think I'd guess 3, considering there is the possibility for conversion, so their numbers should start a little lower than normal. Which means I'd personally prefer we have at least 5 Lines of Warding up, in case the Forgotten are able to break any with Lines of Vigor or there's 4 of them. Probably would be best to put up more than that honestly, just to be safe, but with the rule that you can't do the same action 2 Cycles in a row, we need to make sure we've got a good system for putting up Lines of Warding each Cycle. Obviously we can't just plan everything out in the open, since that would let the Forgotten know exactly who to target and when they can target someone.

The more I think about this, the more complex it seems. >> Maybe we could do something like, pair players together? Which would give us 9 pairs, and then they could switch off doing Lines of Warding. Without saying who went first or whatever. Obviously, not everyone is a Rithmatist, so not every pair would be able to do a Line of Warding each Cycle, but we might be able to work it out. Thoughts?

And to get the voting started, Elenion! I saw you around a little while ago, but you didn't post, so now I'm voting on you. ...dangit. Nevermind then! Flipping a coin won't give us an exact way to switch off, but I'm not sure a pairing system would either.

Paranoid King, I won't vote on you, since you just came back(welcome back, btw!), but it would be great if you could post. I'll find somewhere else to put my vote later.

-Lopen, C1

First paragraph, Lopen addresses the Warding problem. He provides a reasonable estimate of the number of elims and Wardings needed to combat them.

Secondly, Lopen proposes a pairing system. The problem with such a system is that if two elims are paired together they could just trade off killing and Warding without looking suspicious, and even if that doesn't happen it gives the elims more information than they already have. But the chance of two elims being paired is low, particularly if an RNG is used, and the information spread can be mitigated by the judicious use of Makings, as he specifies in his next post.

Overall, I this post reads village to me. Lopen addresses a problem, and his solution is fairly-good if you consider it with the components he suggested later such as Making your partner periodically.

Quote

Maybe so. It might force the Forgotten to be accountable for their actions though, if they're worried that their partner might use a Line of Making to see if they're actually using the Line of Warding like they're supposed to.

While protection is helpful, information is just as important, so Lines of Making are just as important to be using. I'd say that the 3 Rithmatic abilities that are the most important right now are Warding, Forbiddance, and Making.

Also, while strategy for Rithmatics is important, please don't forget to vote! (I know I haven't yet, but I will at some point )

-Lopen, C1

Using Making on your partner in the partner system would make it difficult for the elims to make a kill, thus making the information that the elims would gain from the partner system worth less. This strikes me as village.

I concur with Lopen on his second and third points, but whether elim or village he probably would have brought them up. Neutral read on them.

Quote

Orlok, while I agree that the form of dictatorship you're talking about is a danger with my plan of pairing players, I purposely did not suggest that every pair just use Lines of Making on their partner. This is a futile action in and of itself, considering the Forgotten could just do what any normal Rithmatist might do while we lynch villagers and they kill them.

Something else you're forgetting is that not everyone is a Rithmatist. It's likely that we've got Non-Rithmatists and I'm guessing we've got at least one Acid-Specialist to block the first conversion. This somewhat clears up the issue of dictatorship as well, given not every pair will be made up of 2 Rithmatists. So the Forgotten won't be quite as crippled as you suggest, though they still might play it safe. I'd guess we have somewhere around 13-15 Rithmatists, leaning more towards the higher side, considering multiple Non-Rithmatists makes it possible for a lot of kills early and multiple Acid-Specialists makes it really hard for the Forgotten to get a conversion.

Anyways, this also affects your numbers about how safe we are. If we only have 13 or so Rithmatists, the amount of Rithmatist deaths until we're able to be overrun on a given Cycle is lower than you're suggesting, although it would be a risk for all of the Forgotten to use Lines of Vigor considering some villagers will likely be using Lines of Making on suspicious/lurking/questionable players. I do like the sense of urgency you're suggesting we play with though.

All of that being said, I am okay with plan 'let's all flip coins.' I think it'll work just as well to get the Lines of Warding up, though it doesn't give the added benefit of giving players some accountability.

Seonid, you haven't posted yet, even though you were online. Do you have any thoughts about the plans put forward, or what they might say about the players who suggested them?

-Lopen, C1

In paragraph 3, Lopen understates the danger of Lines of Vigor. Even if an elim gets caught using Vigor, they could just claim Duelist. Or, in the worst case scenario, they die to the lynch but helped gain their team a convert, with the end result of 1 fewer villager, a fresh and possibly-unsuspected player on the elim team, a lynch that made no progress against the elims' numbers, and therefore an unanswered elim kill that cycle. And that's the worst case. Best case, a conversion happens and none of the Vigoring elims were scanned. This understatement strikes me strongly as elim.

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Aman, I did think about using a mention for Seonid when I voted on him, but I thought he'd see it without the mention. I didn't think it was necessary to mention Orlok either since he was looking at the thread right then. I'll keep it in mind though(the need for mentions annoys me, but there is a need sometimes >>).

Oh, look, the player I voted on hasn't responded to my vote, so there's no need for me to comment on the lynch. Nice! ...I'm kidding of course.  Stick seems like she's a villager to me. I've played with Stick when she's been an eliminator, so I feel like I can read to her some extent. Straw, I'm undecided on. He has posted more than usual for Day 1, thanks to Aman's proddings, but I haven't seen enough to say either way at this point. Silverblade, eh, I don't see his vote as too unusual or suspicious. I don't remember how he plays as an eliminator compared to when he's a villager, but it seems close to how he always plays(but do speak up more SB!). Out of the 3, I'd vote on Straw or Silverblade. Probably Straw, because I'm kind of paranoid of you Aman and I could see you voting on Straw like that and then getting him to speak up like he has a lot easier if you guys are teammates. I also have a bad feeling about Joe, but that's entirely gut, so I should ignore it. I thought Brightness sorta sounded like she's a villager. Len is only making plans and not voting or commenting on the votes. Not sure if that's suspicious for him or not.

That's about all I can think of for now.

And you got 'em all Aman. Steph is my little sister(she said to say hi to you, so "hi" ), and Biggo and Brightness are older than me.

-Lopen, C1

Lopen reads correctly on Stick, which is a minor point in his favor. Elim!Lopen could have done that to gain cred for defending a villager, but I think that he would have done it with more subtlety. Lopen is neutral on SB and Straw, which is logical seeing as they hadn't given us much to work with. Lopen read Brightness as a villager, the same read that I have on her. He calls me out for not following the discussion, and although I had a reason it seems like a fair call-out to make. I read this post slightly village.

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(Lopen is the normal text, his quotes of Joe are in bold)

"I do like the pairing system, and would have supported it if Elenion hadn't brought up the coin plan. of course, there's the problem of the Elims getting partnered together, or of them all deciding to ward the same night, so that they can weaken the defenses all at once on a certain night. how would you have dealt with those problems Lopen?"

I had not suggested a way for all of the players to be paired, and it's very unlikely that they would be randomly paired if there's as few of them as everyone is assuming. I doubt anyone would suggest any way besides randomly, and if they did, that could tell us something. Every plan comes with risks, but if you don't make any moves, the eliminators can win because of passive village play. There has to be the opportunity for them to slip up.

"Lopen brings up good points. and then he poke votes seonid. (-_-) but yeah, he hits all the points i wanted to hit."

It was like 8am, and I hadn't slept, but I wanted to vote. Figured I'd at least give someone a prompt to post something with actual content, rather than...what he posted. >>

"dang it lopen. cause chaos later. plan now."

But chaos is my plan.  (I'm kidding, and my "asking" DA to cause chaos was also a joke. Obviously he told me his role and I gave him some good advice, then told him he could just cause chaos instead of listening to me. )

"So why aren't you retracting your vote on Seonid?"

Ties are helpful for gathering info, and the votes were tied when I last posted. I gave my opinions on the players, and Seonid hadn't responded. There was no need for me to change my vote at that point. Why didn't you vote? You say you don't intend to this Cycle unless something is very suspicious, but that doesn't make much sense to me. It's Day 1, nothing is going to be that suspicious. I get that you're busy, but you just went and responded to every post, and even mentioned you'd be okay with lynching Straw or Stick. Why not vote on one of them?

[quotes Seonid, quote removed for space]

I was hoping for more than that Seonid. If you're a villager, we need you to be discussing things! There's 3 lynch targets, could you at least give your opinion on them?

I'm moving my vote from Seonid to Straw, mostly because I have a village read on Stick and kind of a village read on SB(less so than Stick). I don't really think him and Aman are teammates though, based on the fact that they're voting together on Day 1. I haven't really seen anything to make me suspicious of Aman yet either, so it was mostly a bout of paranoia(I will stay paranoid of him until I see good reason not to).

The new colors annoy me for some reason...

Frozen Mint, the dead villager is what gives us the evidence we need for a solid lynch. Without a lynch on D1, we're in a similarly clueless state on D2. Not saying I suspect you because of your stance on the issue, just that I don't think it's a good strategy. And we have lynched eliminators on D1 before, multiple times.

-Lopen, C1

Here Lopen backtracks, defending his vote on Seonid from Joe but then removing it a couple paragraphs down. He then votes on Straw without voicing any sort of suspicion of him, only because he's reading village on the other candidates. He also mentions that he doesn't think Straw and Aman are "teammates", which is interesting because he doesn't specify whether that's teammates on an elim team or teammates on the village team. But that's just a semantics gripe, and he uses it again in his next post so I'm not that concerned. Overall I think this post is slightly elim because of the backtracking.

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Like I said before, I've been an elim with Stick, so I feel like I can read her to some extent, and so far she sounds more like villager Stick than eliminator Stick. It's just a gut/tone read. The comment she made that you mentioned as suspicious seems innocent enough to me, tbh, which makes me a little suspicious of you Len. Part of the reason I'm voting Straw is that it seems like there's been a little resistance in lynching him. Joe said he wouldn't mind if Straw or Stick got lynched, but doesn't vote on one of them. You vote on Stick as the 3rd vote to break the tie between Stick, Straw, and SB. Aman prodded Straw to speak up, while voting on him, which could have been a way to help Straw avoid the lynch by backing off once he responded more, but like I said, I don't think him and Straw are teammates since they're voting together. If Straw turns out to be an eliminator, I'd probably go after you or Joe. Depends on how the rest of they Cycle plays out though.

-Lopen, C1

Here Lopen qualifies his vote on Straw and voices suspicion of me because of my voting on Stick. He reinforces his Aman/Straw point, and notes who he's suspicious of if Straw is an eliminator. All of this strikes me as non-alignment-indicative neutral.

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Nope, he never mentioned anyone else in our PM. I asked him to tell me his role since he'd offered in the thread(though I already was guessing he was a Non Rithmatist), he told me, I said choose wisely for who he picked to give a special power(or randomly if he wanted to cause chaos, hence the chaos stuff from before), then I told him my role in exchange. I didn't realize Non Rithmatists could only be villagers at that point, but I figured he was likely to be a villager based on his openness with his role and his posts, so I didn't see the harm in it. He did not tell me who he was targeting with his power though, if he used it at all.

...And no, I did not kill him.  If anyone used a Line of Making on me, they'd confirm that.

I guessed DA was a Non-Rithmatist from his earlier post about "yeah, and not everyone can makes Lines, because of Non Rithmatists" which was directly after my post about that, and then asked him in PM's to confirm, just because I was curious. Anyways, considering Sart's clarification that all Non Rithmatists and Acid Specialists are villagers to start, I'd guess that the Forgotten had figured he was a Non Rithmatist too and killed him because of that. Also, with me clearly stating in the thread that he'd told me his role, they may have been hoping to cast some suspicion on me for his death if their guess of his role was correct(I'm looking at you Joe).

As for the voters on Straw, obviously I know I'm village, I'm leaning village for Brightness, no idea about HH, and I think it's pretty clear that I don't trust Joe. Besides that, I've got a village read on Stick and Frozen Mint. Kind of Orlok, Jondesu, and Elenion as well, but less so, since I've had trouble reading them in the past. I'm not sure I can get a village read on randuir at this point...  I don't trust Aman, but I rarely do. I feel like Seonid would have posted more if he was a Forgotten, but I'm not sure about that. Silverblade, I could see being a Forgotten, though that's partly because Joe said he had a village read on him and if they're teammates I could see Joe taking a stance like that with a teammate, and now that we know Straw is village, we know that Silverblade voted on a villager(which isn't much, but it's something). Overall though, I'm not that suspicious of Silverblade. I've no idea about PK or Ornstein. And I think that's everyone.

People I would probably help lynch right now: Joe, SB, PK, Ornstein, HH, and maybe Seonid. I should go over the first Cycle again though, after which I'll vote on someone(probably one of those players, but I may change my mind completely after a thorough readthrough ).

People I would be against lynching right now: Stick, Frozen Mint, Brightness, Aman(helpful for keeping legitimate discussion alive).

-Lopen, C2

Lopen's Line of Making assertion seems empty, because even if someone had used Making on him and found something suspicious they probably would have posted it with or without his invitation. Neutral

As for Lopen's suspicions list, he went from being "a little suspicious of you Len" in his previous post to "I've got a village read on... Elenion as wall, but less so", in this post. Between those posts I didn't do anything that should have led to Lopen's trusting me more other than not being on the Straw bandwagon, so this seems slightly elim. Sort-of-relatedly, he calls SB out for voting on a villager, when he himself did the same thing to the same person.

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You asking whether I killed DA and reminding everyone that I knew his role kind of seems like casting suspicion on me. I don't think it's all that suspicious by itself, but considering I already had a bad read on you, it's not helping your case.

 

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What exactly is the point of revealing that? If someone targeted me with a Line of Making, all they'd have to do is say "Lopen did not make the kill" and that'd be enough, wouldn't it? Unless you think I'd ask a teammate to do that, but that wouldn't be a very good idea...

If it helps any, I've told Brightness Radiant what I did last Cycle, so she can confirm that I told her that if you want. I'd really rather not say in the thread, and I don't trust you, so I don't want to tell you in a PM either. I don't want you to waste your time focusing on me though, so if you insist on knowing what I did last Cycle, PM me and I'll tell you.

Thanks for explaining. That sounds exhausting... >.<

 

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I'm pretty sure there'd be more than one eliminator, since it'd be almost impossible for any conversions to happen if they only have 1 player. I think almost everyone has agreed that 3 or 4 are the most likely. I'm guessing 3, but it's not a bad idea to assume the worst with things like this.

I'm voting on Joe. I was not able to go through the thread like I wanted to, so this is just based on my gut read of him so far, with him not voting initially, then voting straw once I accused him of defending him, then sorta casting suspicion on me this Cycle because of DA's death(plus he says he thinks I'm a villager, and that tends to make me more paranoid of players, especially when they don't give much reasoning), and now he's voting Stick because someone accused him of defending her. All things considered, I'm not totally convinced Joe is evil, I know I sometimes tunnel pretty hard, but I'm going with my gut on this one.

As for Stick, I am less sure of her village-ness after this Cycle, because I don't like some of the things she said, but I still feel like she's more likely village. She's always been pretty open with her opinions, so her saying things like "obviously" and such don't make me as suspicious as it might with other players.

Don't forget to send in your Actions!!! (Inactivity deaths are the worst...)

-Lopen, C2

I think Lopen is overreacting to a question of Joe's, so that makes me question whether he really did kill DA just because killing someone you're known to be in contact with would be unexpected. Still, it's not a good reason, so slightly elim read instead of elim.

Second response, Lopen seems convinced that anyone who used Making on him would vouch for him. He could be bluffing, but I'm reading slightly village.

Lopen's backtracking on Stick doesn't strike me as the kind of thing Elim!Lopen would do, so that's a point for village.

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Orlok, my post clearly explains that 5 Lines of Warding is the lowest amount I'd ever want to be up. I was trying to make it clear that we needed to make sure we had a consistent way to put up sufficient Lines of Warding, meaning 5 Lines or higher(and in my post I said it would be better if we could make more, but because of not being able to make the same Line twice in a row, I wasn't sure how good we could manage that). So by no means was I advocating that we figure out how to make 5 Lines of Warding and only 5 each Cycle.

Honestly, my idea about the pairings wasn't thought out completely. You have a point that if we did do that, the Forgotten might be able to better time their Lines of Vigor. Mostly I was still arguing the pairs plan after Len put his coin plan forward because I thought it might be a good idea to have 2 plans around so players could think through them for themselves and decide which one they thought was better, which could give us some insight for how they were thinking. Besides that, I was also hoping my plan might make the Forgotten take actions that might incriminate them if we caught them using Lines of Making.

-Lopen, C2

Lopen's points sound good, except that if he was trying to catch the elims by using Making he shouldn't have proposed the Makings in his next post after proposing the partner plan. Lopen's basically restating what he's already said, so here's another one for the neutral pile.

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The Forgotten could use Lines of Vigor on some of those using Lines of Warding though, and it's possible there could be 4 Forgotten. There's no way for them to know whose making the Lines of Warding or how many there are, so I feel like it's unlikely they'll do anything too dangerous this early. Just saying, only 3 Lines of Warding would be very worrisome. >>

Also, in case I die, I'm suspicious of Joe and Aman right now. Aman said he's a little suspicious of Joe, but then chose to vote and focus on Stick(and now everyone's piled on to Stick). I feel like he's trying to draw attention away from Joe. Of course, if Stick is a Forgotten, that'll change my opinion quite a bit. 

-Lopen, C2

Lopen's suspicion of Aman, although I don't really suspect Aman, seems slightly village and founded on reason.

And... that's up until the end of C2, and I'm done with analysis. I've already commented on Lopen's one post this cycle, so that's the end. Here's our totals:

Elim: 1

Slightly Elim: 3

Neutral: 4

Slightly Village: 3

Village: 3

*slams head on table* Lopen, why do you have to be so darn hard to read? Right now you're on the village side of neutral read, but still in the neutral category.

@TheMightyLopen Some of the things I've marked as red flags might be due to misunderstandings between us instead of actual elim tells, so I'd appreciate if you went through and looked at each of them.

 

 

 

Edit: I don't know what in elimination happened to those quotes. They weren't like that when I hit post.

Edited April 22, 2017 by Elenion

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

I have been dealing with RL stuff for the past 28 hours. i finally had time to make a post now, but I'm going to use that time to instead settle a rather important debt. I apologize, but you won't be seeing a post from me for another 14 hours, give or take. I have put in orders though.

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

Sorry I haven't posted until now everyone. I know I said I was gonna try and do some player by player analysis, but I've just been too busy. :/ I still would like to get that done sometime, but I'm not sure if I can do it this Cycle.

@Elenion, in response to your post. I'll just respond to the things you mention as elim-y, if that's fine with you.

1. I don't feel like I understated the danger of Lines of Vigor. I was telling Orlok that his numbers might be optimistic actually, considering not everyone is a Rithmatist. I also mentioned the danger the Forgotten face by using Lines of Vigor specifically so that the Forgotten would realize that. I'd rather they not take the risk honestly, since I really don't want to deal with the headache that is conversions. >>

2. I'm not sure why you see it as backtracking. Joe specifically asked me why I hadn't removed my vote from Seonid, and mentioned it 2 or 3 times, so I think you can understand why I felt the need to explain my actions. I still stand by that vote, since it was better than doing nothing. So how is that backtracking?

3. My changing my mind about you is a fair point. I have yet to decide whether I'm suspicious of you or not. :/ And the point that I voted on a villager is just as fair to use against me as it is for me to use against Silverblade. I don't argue that point either.

4. I tend to react strongly to accusations against me, especially when they're from someone I suspect.

So, we're just over halfway through with this Cycle, and we've got 12 posts now. With what, 2 votes? That's not gonna work. I feel partially to blame, since I've been using PM's more than posting. But seriously, we need more posts.

At this point, from what I've gathered in PM's and my reads from the thread, here are the people I trust: Brightness Radiant, HH, Frozen Mint, Paranoid King, Orlok. Sort of Randuir and Jondesu.

People I distrust: Joe, Elenion, Aman, Ecthelion, Seonid.

Neutral: Ornstein.

Joe has stuff to deal with in RL, so I'd feel bad lynching him while he's away. I'm gonna move my vote to Ecthelion for now, since he's barely said anything, except to vote on Len for not bandwagoning, which I don't really agree with. @Ecthelion III, care to contribute more than 2 sentences? You were very quiet in the thread in LG30, so I'm not going to ignore the fact that you don't seem very invested in catching the Forgotten.

Also, as a side note, I think one of Seonid or Elenion is evil, but I'm not sure which. Similarly, I doubt Ecthelion and Elenion are teammates, considering Ecth is voting on him.

[Ecthelion III he/him]

Sorry for my lack of activity. I've been primarily working on tidying up the rules for my upcoming LG.

@TheMightyLopen, I find it really odd that you are complaining about not enough votes being cast and then want to kill one of the two people who did vote. That doesn't make sense to me; plus, the Forgotten would want to kill those who are voting and active in the thread.