Mid-Range Game 21: The Battle for Nebrask

[Seonid he/him]

The second artist that scanned Lopen was Elenion. Lopen told me that last night. I protected him, but was apparently roleblocked.

[Orlok Tsubodai]

Right. I have not been well,  have had a lot of work, campaigning in the election, and running LG32, as well as a diet making me constantly tired, but have now largely recovered.

I will read through the thread tonight, although I can't promise analysis in my usual depth.

For now, though, I will note that suspicious ought to be cast on Aman, and to a lesser extent on Randuir.

It is an unfortunate fact of SE that active, strong villagers are frequently killed early in our games, but it is a fact regardless. For a village Aman to be left alive to this cycle is unusual. 

We ought to take into account that it is more likely that Aman is left alive this late when he is evil than when he is village. 

The same can be said for Randuir, who whilst not as feared, has been more active.

 

To be clear, this is not an accusation, at this stage, but merely an observation.

I will focus my analysis tonight on Aman, Randuir, and Jondesu.

[DeTess she/her]

*notices @Jondesu and @Amanuensis bickering*

Go act like grown-ups you two. Find evidence to prove your villagerness or the others evilness beyond a doubt, instead of having a he-said, she-said argument! (I'm just kidding. Kinda. I know both of you are responsible adults, and you aren't really acting like children, but the second part of my argument still stands).

Anyway, I've got some hopefully useful information. Despite Lopen claiming to the full thread, it might still be useful to know who else knew his role beforehand. after all, Lopen was only killed after he revealed his role to the entire thread (though he might have had protection C3). Anyway, Lopen told me C3 that the following people knew his role: Brightness Radiant, me, Seonid, Jondesu and Frozen Mint. Furthermore, Brightness told me in C2 that she'd told her specialization to me, Lopen and Elenion.

Given that the assassin took a shot at either Lopen or Brightness (based on the write-up it looks like the assassin hit Lopen), I think we can assume that there is a forgotten assassin. This would make sense if there are only 3 forgotten. The reason I think we haven't seen the assassin's kill clearly before is because he hit protection uptill now (or the forgotten kill did. Doesn't really matter in this case).

Edit: Before I start with RP, I'm wondering if there's still someone we all agree is certainly village. if that's the case, those that drew a line of warding could contact him/her. This could be used to check whether Aman drawing a line of warding is even possible within the context of the defenses getting broken. On that mater, there is a reasonable chance that Brightness drew a line of warding this cycle, as she told me she scanned me with a line of making C1. I'm not entirely sure though, as she might have shifted to the odd cycle somewhere along the way.

So, RP.

The mood in the camp had turned sour after the latest deaths. Many people where just sitting around morosely, while Cole and Kyle where bickering like children, accusing the other of being a forgotten and trying to get the rest to lynch their target with no other argument than 'because I say so'. Neil had had enough. He didn't know if this talk about forgotten was real, or that people where just making stuff up to justify their deeds, but Neil decided he'd rather take his chances with the chalklings. At least those monsters wouldn't try to stab you in the back.

He packed a bag with food for a couple of days and a bed-roll, as well as a large amount of Chalk. Then he marched out of the camp and towards the Circle.

When he arrived, he noticed a large cluster of chalklings where already swarming around on the other side, looking for an exit. As usual, his gaze remained transfixed on the horde for several moments, but then he was able to tear his gaze away. Those creatures weren't nearly as horrifying now that he'd seen the things his fellow men where capable of doing. Neil checked the section of circle nearest to the camp, but there weren't any new breaches, or damaged sections that could turn into one. Satisfied, he set down his pack and started drawing.

 

Edited April 26, 2017 by randuir

[Orlok Tsubodai]

@randuir, I can back up Seonid's claim to have attempted to protect Lopen - I usef a line of making on him last night, which returned that he used a line of forbiddance. Although definitely not a hard clear, it is some evidence in favour of his being village

[DeTess she/her]

17 minutes ago, OrlokTsubodai said:

@randuir, I can back up Seonid's claim to have attempted to protect Lopen - I usef a line of making on him last night, which returned that he used a line of forbiddance. Although definitely not a hard clear, it is some evidence in favour of his being village

Okay, I assume lines of making don't tell you the target of a line of forbiddance?

Anyway, I've got some questions that might reveal who is lying. 

Jondesu, in what cycle did you scan Lopen?

Amanuensis, did you tell anyone apart from Lopen your specialization?

Edited April 26, 2017 by randuir

[Darkness Ascendant he/him]

Lol

Are you suggesting a ship @Sart? P sure her name aint BrightnessAscendant  

Edited April 26, 2017 by Darkness Ascendant

[Amanuensis he/him]

 

3 hours ago, randuir said:

Amanuensis, did you tell anyone apart from Lopen your specialization?

Unfortunately no. Only three players have PM'd me this game.

PK in the very beginning, where he told me he learned my name was an actual word and not some fancy pronoun, and then said his role fit his character description and asked if mine did too, thinking Sart choose them because of flavor instead odd using RNG. I told him that it could maybe be construed that way but it was a bit of a stretch (Acid-Specialist would have made more sense for me).

HH messaged me at the end of C3 / beginning of C4 to inform me that he protected me C2, and that the only player he told was Lopen, who later confirmed it. I replied to the PM although never received a response.

Finally, after Lopen revealed himself to be a Non-Rithmatist (and a few people vouched for him / didn't refute it) I sent Lopen a PM with my role and actions in it, then asked him to verify if anyone scanned me. So, as far as I'm aware, Lopen was the only one who knew, though he may have told someone between then and his death.

Anyway I have to get ready for work now. Just woke up ~20 minutes ago and wanted to see what I missed / reply quick. Larger analysis post coming later.

Edited April 26, 2017 by Amanuensis

[DeTess she/her]

Okay, thank you Aman. @Sart, if you place a line of forbiddance on someone, does a line of vigor need to hit the one who made the line, or the one protected by it to cancel its effects?

@Seonid, do you know if anyone apart from yourself and Lopen knew you where going to protect Lopen?

[Jondesu he/him]

@randuir, I scanned Lopen C2.

Sart hasn't responded yet to my request to confirm what action you took, @Amanuensis, so I'm withholding any further accusations or analysis pending that (I assume he's getting some sleep).

[Seonid he/him]

3 hours ago, randuir said:

Okay, thank you Aman. @Sart, if you place a line of forbiddance on someone, does a line of vigor need to hit the one who made the line, or the one protected by it to cancel its effects?

@Seonid, do you know if anyone apart from yourself and Lopen knew you where going to protect Lopen?

Yes. Joe knew. I don't know who Lopen might have told. Which could easily point to Joe being evil. It's possible,  however, that I was hit by a line of vigor for a different reason.

I was supposed to be on warding last night,  before Lopen came to me at the last minute and asked me what I was going to do, and then to protect him instead. It would have been easy for anyone who knew what I did d1 and d3, to know that I was theoretically on that. Jondesu theoretically knew those actions, though he asked me questions in our PM today that made me think he didn't connect those dots.

All things considered, I think I suspect Jondesu most.

Don't forget, however, that Jondesu and Aman could both be Forgotten, and that this little fight in thread is meant to distract us from meaningful discussion,  divide the lynch votes, and leave us open to a hammer at the last minute.

[Amanuensis he/him]

Alright, this post is going to come in two parts. I'll kick it off replying to the things that I missed while I was sleeping, then end it with analysis of Jondesu. I'm hoping I'll be able to find something incriminating considering what we know now, but including his comments this cycle, he's only posted 13 times, so I don't think I'll have a lot to sift through. In retrospect, that might have been the point in his low-activity, but I've also been more busy than usual lately, and I'm aware of Jondesu's real life situation, so I wouldn't dare accuse him of fabricating it.

12 hours ago, OrlokTsubodai said:

Right. I have not been well,  have had a lot of work, campaigning in the election, and running LG32, as well as a diet making me constantly tired, but have now largely recovered.

I will read through the thread tonight, although I can't promise analysis in my usual depth.

For now, though, I will note that suspicious ought to be cast on Aman, and to a lesser extent on Randuir.

It is an unfortunate fact of SE that active, strong villagers are frequently killed early in our games, but it is a fact regardless. For a village Aman to be left alive to this cycle is unusual. 

We ought to take into account that it is more likely that Aman is left alive this late when he is evil than when he is village. 

The same can be said for Randuir, who whilst not as feared, has been more active.

 

To be clear, this is not an accusation, at this stage, but merely an observation.

I will focus my analysis tonight on Aman, Randuir, and Jondesu.

This post. Just... sigh. I get where you're coming from, Orlok. It's reasonable and accurate often enough (thought it isn't right now), but saying things like "suspicion ought to be cast" on me just because I've been left alive is the kind of thing eliminators would want to take advantage of. I mean, look at their trend of kills throughout the game. Three low-active players died in a row (Darkness Ascendant, Silverblade5, Paranoid King), it appears the Forgotten were aiming to deprive the village of information and not risk hitting anyone who would be protected (I protected myself C1 and C3, and had protection on the night I warded from HH, so it turns out they were right to do so).

This is the first time we've seen a second kill, and now that Rand mentions it, it's more reasonable than I initially believed for the Forgotten to begin the game with an Assassin, given they can only use their kill every other cycle, and with every player being able to use a Line of Forbiddence to protect themselves and others, or Lines of Making to see if someone uses a Line of Revocation, there's a good chance they can be stopped or caught in the act. If the Forgotten have had an Assassin every cycle, and they succeeded in killing someone last turn, that means the last time they had to have used the ability was C2.

No one has come forward saying they've scanned me (apart from Jon, who's lying), which makes me think there's a decent chance I was checked out by the Forgotten D1 to see what action I took. If they did, they would have seen me use Forbiddence, and thus know that I was vulnerable C2, and would have tried to attack me. Based on this theory than the only reason I'm alive right now is because HH decided to protect me that turn. I mentioned this to Lopen last turn and he verified the story in thread, so anyone can go back to read it if they want evidence. I'd also be happy if HH could chime in, because with Jon making the play he is now, I suspect that if not every villager votes for the right person, this game is over.

Personally I wouldn't spend any time analyzing Randuir this turn, Orlok, since it's clear either myself or Jon is evil. If you've got the time to do it, however, I'd recommend you take care of Rand last. Either way I look forward to seeing what you have to say.

12 hours ago, randuir said:

*notices @Jondesu and @Amanuensis bickering*

Go act like grown-ups you two. Find evidence to prove your villagerness or the others evilness beyond a doubt, instead of having a he-said, she-said argument! (I'm just kidding. Kinda. I know both of you are responsible adults, and you aren't really acting like children, but the second part of my argument still stands).

Anyway, I've got some hopefully useful information. Despite Lopen claiming to the full thread, it might still be useful to know who else knew his role beforehand. after all, Lopen was only killed after he revealed his role to the entire thread (though he might have had protection C3). Anyway, Lopen told me C3 that the following people knew his role: Brightness Radiant, me, Seonid, Jondesu and Frozen Mint. Furthermore, Brightness told me in C2 that she'd told her specialization to me, Lopen and Elenion.

Given that the assassin took a shot at either Lopen or Brightness (based on the write-up it looks like the assassin hit Lopen), I think we can assume that there is a forgotten assassin. This would make sense if there are only 3 forgotten. The reason I think we haven't seen the assassin's kill clearly before is because he hit protection uptill now (or the forgotten kill did. Doesn't really matter in this case).

Edit: Before I start with RP, I'm wondering if there's still someone we all agree is certainly village. if that's the case, those that drew a line of warding could contact him/her. This could be used to check whether Aman drawing a line of warding is even possible within the context of the defenses getting broken. On that mater, there is a reasonable chance that Brightness drew a line of warding this cycle, as she told me she scanned me with a line of making C1. I'm not entirely sure though, as she might have shifted to the odd cycle somewhere along the way.

I was planning on it, don't worry. Just wanted to tell everyone outright that I didn't use Vigor last night, as otherwise I'd probably have more votes on me for something that's not even true.

I was not aware of his role, hence why I accused him at the end of C3. By that list, Joe wasn't aware either, nor was HH or Orlok, but I'm not sure how much this matters since I know that Jondesu was evil. That means the Forgotten knew already, and if I had to guess, the main reason they didn't kill Lopen until now is because that information wasn't entirely open yet. By waiting to kill him, Jon could have simultaneously earned trust and implicated those who were ignorant. Plus, think about it realistically. You don't think the elims used a Line of Making on Lopen at least once, only to discover that he drew no Lines (which, as a villager, could only mean one thing).

As I talked about above, I agree with this theory, and believe that I was the target C2. Apart from the elims purposely ignoring me so that they could pull something like this (accuse me of using Vigor and then mention how I typically don't live long as a villager), it's also possible they did attack me. I've been trying to figure out why I'm still alive for a couple turns, now, and I think I've finally got a solid answer.

As for the numbers, if I was Vigor'd, that's 2 less points the town would get from Warding, plus 1 less from the elim not participating. We can also assume that every elim didn't Ward that turn, and since Jon is lying, I'm leaning they have 4 players instead of 3. So, let's do the math. 4 Forgotten: 1 Vigors me, 1 Vigors Seonid, 1 attacks Lopen, 1 attacks Brightness. In this scenario, my Warding no longer counts, Seonid used Forbiddence instead of Warding. Orlok just said he used a Line of Making on Seonid and saw him use Forbiddence, so that's 2 Villagers with free actions versus 3-4 Forgotten. This, however, assumes Orlok and Seonid aren't on a team with Jon, which is a possibility, but I'm of the opinion that Orlok village, which corroborates Seonid.

Therefore, yes. In this scenario, there would have been a conversion, which is why I think that it's right. That means players with open actions last night were Len, HH, Joe, Mint and you. Including Jon, that means 3 of those would be evil, and the other 2 village.

---

Okay, so before I analyze all of Jondesu's posts, I'm going to gather all the vote tallies and color those who have since been revealed village.

One

Stick (3): Elenion, Orlok, Paranoid King
Silverblade (1): Aman,
Straw (4): Hemalurgic Headshot, Joe, Lopen, Brightness Ascendant
Paranoid King (1): Stick
Randuir (1): Jondesu
Hemalurgic Headshot (1): Randuir

Two

Stick (6): Elenion, Joe, Frozen Mint, Paranoid King, Ornstein, Randuir
Hemalurgic Headshot (1): Stick
Paranoid King (1): Jondesu
Joe (2): Lopen, Brightness Radiant

Three

Ecthelion (5): Elenion, Jondesu, Randuir, Lopen, Brightness Ascendant
Lopen (1): Amanuensis,
Paranoid King (2): Hemalurgic Headshot, Ornstein
Elenion (1): Echtelion
Seonid (1): Frozen Mint
Ornstein (2): Paranoid King, Joe
 

Four

Seonid (2): Elenion, Randuir
Ornstein (5): Amanuensis, Jondesu, Hemalurgic Headshot, Joe, Frozen Mint
Joe (3): Seonid, Lopen, Brightness Ascendant
Amanuensis (1): Ornstein

I don't really see anything analysis worthy by this alone, as the only players who have voted together more than once were Len and Rand, and it looks like a lot of the players still alive have voted with everyone else at least once. Plus every single one of us has voted for a villager at one point, by the looks of it. That being said, now that Jon has made his play, I know he's evil, so I can at least look at who he's voted for, as well as who he hasn't.

On C1 he did not participate in either the Stick or Straw lynch. Instead he voted on Rand because he voted for HH instead of Stick, despite his analysis of her. Knowing that he's evil now, I think the reason he didn't get involved there is because he knew both players were villagers, and thus remaining on the sidelines could keep people from looking at him over others.

On C2 he was the only player to vote for PK. Again he stays way from the lynch on Stick, which could be him being aware of the results. On C3, however, he joins the bandwagon on Ecth, contradicting the pattern of his two previous votes. I would say there's a decent chance a teammate of his was up for the lynch, or could possibly be swung too, but when he voted, Ecth had already accumulated 3 or 4 votes.

On C4, last cycle, he joins the lynch on Ornstein. Considering that Joe and Seonid's alignments are still unknown, and that their votes were a lot closer to Ornstein's then Ecth's was to Len or Seonid the previous turn, it's possible he was trying to run interference for one of them. In said post he specifically mentions Joe, not Seonid, which could either be because Joe is his teammate and he naturally wanted to mention him, or because Seonid is his teammate and he was actively trying not to comment on him.

I still think Joe is village, so I'm leaning the second option over the first. But considering that Orlok is vouching that Seonid used Forbiddence last night, I think it's likely neither are his teammates, and he just decided to vote on Ornstein because as he's proven this turn by lying about me, they're right on the precipice of victory. The only real question I have right now is if his vote on Rand C1 was a distancing technique.

---

Alright, so. Onto his posts.

Beginning mostly talks about his stance on the plans and the people who've suggested them, which judging by what he said, is non-alignment indicative. However there are a couple things in here that fit the eliminator mindset. For example, he mentions how Artists and Duelists can hard-clear villagers, but then goes on to mention when he expects there to be a conversion. At the end of this post, he ends with it being "best to assume anyone you confirm villager is a likely convert." Normally it's not bad advice, except in this game the conversions are random, so it's not like the Forgotten can explicitly choose who they bring to their side. Having this kind of mindset is only relevant if you're worried about giving information to someone who might turn later, so now seeing Jon as evil, I think this is him trying to prevent the village from developing a trust group. While it's not unlike a villager to discuss the conversions, especially since other players brought it up before, the fact that the largest portion of Jon's first post this game discusses it, I think the Forgotten must have been discussing going for the conversion a lot. Which means they've probably been trying to figure out who the Acid-Specialist is, and that they somehow got that information last turn, judging by the kill on Brightness.

Also, his last paragraph here says that he believes voting is important, so he'll get involved in the lynch later. Specifically he says he wants to pay attention to who suggested which plan and who supported them.

He calls Len's plan overly complex, here, but doesn't see anything that helps the elims. He does say he's wary of myself, Lopen, and Len as well, two of which I know for a fact are village, so I think he might have been indirectly discredit us. Whether or not that applies to Len as well, I can't say for sure. Usually elims like to throw their allies among a list of villagers to make it difficult to pick out who their teammates are later. He follows this up with a vote on Rand for a reason I mentioned above. Like I said before, I think it's odd he didn't say anything about Straw, Stick or Silverblade, who all turned out to be village, which supports my theory of him trying to avoid the spotlight.

Okay, either this was an accidental slip up or Jon was intentionally poking fun at us. He starts this post saying "I knew it was likely to hit a villager of course, but losing a Non-Rithmatist is a little annoying." The player lynch on C1 was Straw, a blackmailer. The Non-Rithmatist was DA, the Forgotten kill. Thing is, this was the very first post of the turn, which makes me think he was anticipating the results, and seeing that they hit such a useful role for the village, was too excited not to comment.

Afterwards he responds to Randuir and admits fault in his analysis, as well as he knew his vote wouldn't make a difference (contradicts his first post where he said he knows voting is important. Two completely different mindsets). He also says he wanted to let his thoughts out to be analyzed, which actually makes me trust Randuir more. Rather than a distancing attempt, this makes me think he was trying to make people think he was distancing himself from Rand, in case he ever got killed.

He claims he forgot this was a combined cycle.points out that DA was the Non-Rithmatist, and asks if anyone knew or if the kill was random. Since this is a part of the same post I believe that the way he started it was an accidental slip up that he and the rest of us never realized. Overall, this post feels pretty forced to me, in the sort of way that an eliminator would struggle trying to articulate what thoughts they would have if they were village. For example, the main reason he's upset about a Non-Rithmatist dying is because it's one less chance for a player to be hard-cleared. Generally only eliminators would be concerned with that, so this shows us where his mind was, rather than on the fact that we lost someone with the power to buff other villagers.

So he reminds us that Lines can't be done twice in a row, so anyone who reveals what they did is giving the eliminators a window to hit them. It's fine enough advice, especially considering the situation, but he then follows it up with him being wary of my analysis (even if it makes sense), particularly where I conclude Lopen is probably a villager. This aligns with my theory that Jon knowing his role and not killing him is not a reason to trust him. Like with Joe in LG31, I think Joe was trying to get on Lopen's good side because at this point I presented a very logical reason for why Lopen wasn't evil, so it would be better for him to get on the pro-Lopen train sooner rather than later.

 

Later on C2 he finally comments on the votes against Straw and Silver. At this point both players are dead, so his defending their level of activity helps no one. It's clear to me he was avoiding commenting on them while they were still alive because he didn't want to derail the lynches. Judging by the players who voted for them (Joe, Lopen, Brightness and myself). I think he was hoping we'd implicate ourselves by remaining uninvolved.

Instead of joining the votes on Stick, he urges us to focus on players who have mostly been ignored, and then votes on PK, who since has been killed and revealed village. At this stage in the game I believe his mindset was the obvious that Stick would be the next death, and after that, they'd need someone new to distract us. It nearly worked, too, because in C3 2 more players voted for PK, and Mint even tried to convince Jon to change his vote back to PK from Ecth. He responds to this later, so I'll talk about it when we get there.

C3 begins and so far the only players with votes are Joe, Ornstein and Len. Rather than join one, he votes for PK again, saying PK's explanation wasn't good enough. Why he decides to vote for PK over Ornstein, I'm not exactly sure, but it might be a result of him finding out either's role in PMs and preferring to kill an Artist rather than a Sentry. As for why he didn't vote for Joe or Len, both are still alive and candidates for being one of the Forgotten who used a kill or a Line of Vigor. Because of my previous turns analysis, I would guess Len.

Here he switches his vote from PK to Ecth because no one shares his suspicion. I find it funny he chooses Ecth over Len, and in this post he even says that if Ecth is village, Len will move up his suspicion list, and yet despite Ecth turning up village, he decides to "use a Line of Making on me?" If he truly believed his opinion would be affected by the results of the lynch, why didn't he follow it up by watching Len? Instead he chose me, who last cycle had said enough to allay even Lopen's concerns about my alignment. That doesn't really make sense at all, especially for a player who knew Lopen's role (and thus that he could be trusted). I'm becoming increasingly convinced that Jon and Len are teammates, so if we lynch Jon today, I think I'd strongly advocate going after Len tomorrow.

Like I mentioned before, Mint asked Jon if he would switch his vote back to PK. He says he would, but that doing so would only tie it, which wouldn't be helpful. My theory is at this point the Forgotten had already planned on attacking PK, and while they could probably change the order, it would be better if they just lynched Ecth and took PK out on their own.

Last post of the previous turn, before he outright lied about my action. He votes on Ornstein at a point where it's basically guaranteed he'll die, although he does defend Joe in this post, which makes me think he's already planning on accusing me this turn and is setting up a contingency in case his bluff fails. By defending Joe here, it either makes it seem like they're teammates, or that he wants us to think that. As I've already said, I don't suspect Joe, so I believe it's the latter.

---

Now that I've gotten through all of that, I wanted to follow up on Seonid claiming that Len was the second Artist who scanned Lopen. @Elenion, can you confirm this? Since I believe Jon and Len are teammates, I have two theories. Only one of them is an Artist and actually scanned Lopen, and then they both claimed the same role to make it look like there was more of them than there actually were, so that if one got killed and revealed the other wouldn't be suspected while also doubling the chance that a Forgotten got into the trust group. Another possibility is they truly are both Artists, which wouldn't necessarily be unbalanced if their 4th member was a Sentry. Either way, I think they're both teammates. Jon says he scanned Lopen and myself (Non-Rithmatist and Sentry), only C2 and C4 respectively. Len, when did you scan Lopen, and who else have you scanned?

In conclusion, I already know that Jon is evil. I don't think they were expecting Orlok to come back for this unless he is evil, too, in which case they'd probably be hoping to sow enough doubt about me to get one villager on their side, since basically everyone left this game is pretty active, minus Mint and HH, to an extent. The fact that I just got ninja'd by Seonid voting for Jon basically confirms they're not teammates, which probably means Orlok is village as well, as if he was evil, I doubt he would claim an action that verified a villager over an eliminator.

I know a lot of my analysis here is hinging on Jon being evil, but I don't really know any other way to present it, given he's lied about my action. As for Sart not yet responding I severely doubt that, as I saw him actively reading the thread last night during our back-and-forth. I more so think that Jon is trying to delay the conversation from progressing than genuinely waiting.

---

(C5) Votes: Thus Far

(1) Amanuensis: Jondesu,

(2) Jondesu: Amanuensis, Seonid,

Edited April 26, 2017 by Amanuensis

[Jondesu he/him]

@Amanuensis, you don't honestly think I'd be so dishonorable as to lie about Sart not responding, do you?  He hadn't viewed my PM in 13 hours, which is when he sent me your action, and is prior to me asking him for clarification. That's actually somewhat insulting to think I'd lie about something like that. I'll lie about plenty of things in a game like this, but not about the GM or his/her activity.

And you know nothing of the sort about me being evil. I'm not, and I'm becoming increasingly annoyed about your refusal to try and justify the Line of Vigor you drew and instead claiming you drew something else.

Did anyone use a Line of Making on Aman in a previous cycle that could help corroborate or disprove his claim to have drawn a Line of Warding this cycle, while we wait for Sart?

Edit: Aman, I seriously am beginning to hope there was a mistake and that you're telling the truth, because I'm going to be very disappointed in your tactics if you are indeed evil, this cycle.

Edited April 26, 2017 by Jondesu

[Amanuensis he/him]

33 minutes ago, Jondesu said:

@Amanuensis, you don't honestly think I'd be so dishonorable as to lie about Sart not responding, do you?  He hadn't viewed my PM in 13 hours, which is when he sent me your action, and is prior to me asking him for clarification. That's actually somewhat insulting to think I'd lie about something like that. I'll lie about plenty of things in a game like this, but not about the GM or his/her activity.

And you know nothing of the sort about me being evil. I'm not, and I'm becoming increasingly annoyed about your refusal to try and justify the Line of Vigor you drew and instead claiming you drew something else.

Did anyone use a Line of Making on Aman in a previous cycle that could help corroborate or disprove his claim to have drawn a Line of Warding this cycle, while we wait for Sart?

Edit: Aman, I seriously am beginning to hope there was a mistake and that you're telling the truth, because I'm going to be very disappointed in your tactics if you are indeed evil, this cycle.

I don't really see it as a matter of honor or not, but I do apologize for insulting you. Thing is, I did check when Sart was viewing the thread last night, and it said he last visited the page several minutes after your second post. Therefore if he did mix up the orders, there's no reason why he wouldn't have corrected it immediately. I'm not questioning whether or not he's actually responded to you. I'm questioning whether or not you actually asked, because I believe you're lying about what we both did last night. The alternative should have been clarified by now.

I'm sorry, but I can't justify something that didn't happen. @Elenion, @Hemalurgic_Headshot, @Frozen Mint. Can any of you corroborate Jon's story or mine? You three are the only ones who haven't posted yet.

I'm not sure what tactics you're even referring to. How would you react if a player announced in thread that you took an action you didn't?

Edited April 26, 2017 by Amanuensis

[Jondesu he/him]

I can't view the exact time stamps on mobile, but I know I sent the PM to Sart exactly 27 seconds after I posted here that I would, because I had to wait 3 more seconds before it would actually let me send it. I can't view whether he's been online since then exactly, but it couldn't have been more than a few minutes, and there is no activity I can find from him posted after I sent that PM. At this point, this is getting so absurd that I will not post again until I get a confirmation from him.

[Amanuensis he/him]

13 minutes ago, Jondesu said:

I can't view the exact time stamps on mobile, but I know I sent the PM to Sart exactly 27 seconds after I posted here that I would, because I had to wait 3 more seconds before it would actually let me send it. I can't view whether he's been online since then exactly, but it couldn't have been more than a few minutes, and there is no activity I can find from him posted after I sent that PM. At this point, this is getting so absurd that I will not post again until I get a confirmation from him.

That's fair. I really hate that since the forum was updated, time-stamps are so vague within the first week. For games like these, that's the most important time to have access to that information. But yeah. I suppose I could be misremembering when Sart was viewing the thread, exactly, relative to when you sent your PM (heck, he might have just gotten offline right then). But at the very least I know Sart saw your first post, and I think he's the type of GM who would make it a priority that no one is voting for someone because of false information, which is why I came to the conclusion that you didn't use a Line of Making at all.

Edited April 26, 2017 by Amanuensis

[Hemalurgic Headshot he/him]

With Jon, I can say nothing as to actions, because I have had no contact through PMs with him whatsoever. Aman, however, what he said holds up with what I know and what fits in with what I know. The problem is, this might be the last cycle for the Village, because if the lynch goes badly and another Villager is killed, then that's the game, pretty much. From what I have from Aman in PMs and such and given that Lopen is Village, I am leaning Village with Aman. However, Jon is another story. I don't have anything on him except for what everyone says... and it doesn't seem good. 

Jondesu

[DeTess she/her]

I know that I've been reasonably quiet this cycle now. I haven't been idle, however. I only need to hear from Elenion who he scanned with what results and I'll be ready talk about the results of my research. For now I'd like to claim that I drew a line of warding last cycle, so if there is someone out there who can confirm that, I'd appreciate it.

[Elenion he/him]

9 minutes ago, randuir said:

I know that I've been reasonably quiet this cycle now. I haven't been idle, however. I only need to hear from Elenion who he scanned with what results and I'll be ready talk about the results of my research. For now I'd like to claim that I drew a line of warding last cycle, so if there is someone out there who can confirm that, I'd appreciate it.

I'm here! I didn't have time to post this morning before school.

A lot has happened this cycle, most of it bad. First things first, looks like Seonid revealed my role. Yes, I did scan Lopen. Here's my scan history:

C1 I scanned Lopen, but I wasn't completely sure that he was a Non-Rithmatist until Brightness Radiant told me in our PM, because a rule clarification from Sart told me that blocked scans show up as having detected no specialization or actions, which was what I saw with Lopen.

C3 I scanned Orlok, but I don't want to reveal his role or action schedule without his permission. Suffice it to say that he didn't do anything that would make me think he's evil.

 

The elephant in the thread, of course, is Jondesu vs Aman.

@Amanuensis Jon and I aren't elims together. For one, I'm not an elim.  Two, we're both Artists. I can't speak for Jon not scanning me instead of you, but I'm glad he did what he did.

We know the elims used Vigor last night because Seonid's verified Line of Forbiddance was blocked. If Jon were lying, I'd assume he would have lied and said he detected no action and therefore the elim kill. But Jon claimed that Aman drew Vigor, and now after the fact we know that there was at least one Vigor used by the elims last night. That correlation seems too strong to ignore.

Aman

[Amanuensis he/him]

21 minutes ago, Elenion said:

I'm here! I didn't have time to post this morning before school.

A lot has happened this cycle, most of it bad. First things first, looks like Seonid revealed my role. Yes, I did scan Lopen. Here's my scan history:

C1 I scanned Lopen, but I wasn't completely sure that he was a Non-Rithmatist until Brightness Radiant told me in our PM, because a rule clarification from Sart told me that blocked scans show up as having detected no specialization or actions, which was what I saw with Lopen.

C3 I scanned Orlok, but I don't want to reveal his role or action schedule without his permission. Suffice it to say that he didn't do anything that would make me think he's evil.

 

The elephant in the thread, of course, is Jondesu vs Aman.

@Amanuensis Jon and I aren't elims together. For one, I'm not an elim.  Two, we're both Artists. I can't speak for Jon not scanning me instead of you, but I'm glad he did what he did.

We know the elims used Vigor last night because Seonid's verified Line of Forbiddance was blocked. If Jon were lying, I'd assume he would have lied and said he detected no action and therefore the elim kill. But Jon claimed that Aman drew Vigor, and now after the fact we know that there was at least one Vigor used by the elims last night. That correlation seems too strong to ignore.

Aman

Okay. I don't remotely think you're village, but I'll humor you. If you aren't teammates with Jon, why immediately assume he's telling the truth? You don't even seem to be considering the possibility of him using a Line of Vigor on Seonid himself and just accusing someone else of it. What has Jon said or done that makes him more likely to be honest, compartively? Furthermore, don't you think it's suspicious that the village has 3 Artists?

Edited April 26, 2017 by Amanuensis

[Seonid he/him]

So, now we have account of a number of actions performed last night.

I placed Forbiddance on Lopen.

Len claims he scanned Orlok.

Jondesu claims he scanned Aman.

Aman claims he Warded. (Jon claims he's lying)

Randuir claims he warded.

So we need action claims from @OrlokTsubodai, @Hemalurgic_Headshot, @Frozen Mint, and @A Joe in the Bush

I don't think that there's much to be gained by keeping actions secret. We need to figure out which (if either) of Aman and Jon is lying quickly. If we choose wrong, we lose. If we choose right, we might still lose, but we have a chance. By all means, withhold your specialization, but we need action claims to piece together this story. There was at least one line of Vigor last night - two if Aman is telling the truth. There was also an Assassin kill and a Forgotten kill, and I'm nearly certain that the Assassin is evil. So we need to be able to cross-check claims. Failure to put up will be met with terminal lynching.

[Amanuensis he/him]

5 minutes ago, Seonid said:

So, now we have account of a number of actions performed last night.

I placed Forbiddance on Lopen.

Len claims he scanned Orlok.

Jondesu claims he scanned Aman.

Aman claims he Warded. (Jon claims he's lying)

Randuir claims he warded.

So we need action claims from @OrlokTsubodai, @Hemalurgic_Headshot, @Frozen Mint, and @A Joe in the Bush

I don't think that there's much to be gained by keeping actions secret. We need to figure out which (if either) of Aman and Jon is lying quickly. If we choose wrong, we lose. If we choose right, we might still lose, but we have a chance. By all means, withhold your specialization, but we need action claims to piece together this story. There was at least one line of Vigor last night - two if Aman is telling the truth. There was also an Assassin kill and a Forgotten kill, and I'm nearly certain that the Assassin is evil. So we need to be able to cross-check claims. Failure to put up will be met with terminal lynching.

One slight error. Len claimed he scanned Orlok on C3, but didn't mention what he did last turn.

EDIT: Also, Orlok already claimed he used a Line of Making on you, and saw you using Forbiddence.

Edited April 26, 2017 by Amanuensis

[DeTess she/her]

Alright, thank you Elenion. I assume you've contacted @OrlokTsubodai about this and he can confirm your story?

Anyway, on to my own thing. Some people have been looking at Aman's and Jondesu's past posts to try and figure out which of them is evil. However, figuring out which of Jon and Aman is evil is actually more like a logical puzzle. Allow me to demonstrate.

Before I start though, there is 1 assumption I have to make, and one 'You'll just have to take my word for it'. First, I'm assuming Orlok and Seonid are not both Elims. Secondly, as I said before, I claim to have made a line of warding last cycle. To add to this, I'm also a Sentry. Lopen knew, and maybe he has told someone still alive that can corroborate this part of my claim.

anyway, moving on, we actually know of three of the actions that the elims have taken this cycle. These are:

1. Attacking Lopen
2. Attacking Brightness
3. Disrupting Seonid's line of forbiddance (if Seonid is village) or having Seonid draw a line of forbiddance targeted at somebody else than Lopen so he can gather trust by pretending he protected Lopen if he got scanned(if Seonid is an elim).

Now, let's look at the case in which Jondesu is right. What other actions would the elims have to take? The answer is actually none. If I was the only one to draw a line of warding, three elims could have been enough to break the defenses. If there where others, then a fourth elim could have broken  one of the lines of warding to ensure a failure of the defenses.

Now, let's look at the case in which Aman is right. The elims would have to take the following additional actions:

1. Disrupt either me or Aman with a line of Vigor (as otherwise there would have been at least 4 lines of warding guarding the village)
2. Scan Aman to determine his specialization.

This second action needs more explaining. As Aman hasn't shared his specialization with anyone alive, the elims would have had to determine it the hard way for Jondesu to make the claim he did. As Jon's other scan is accounted for, he's had to scan Aman C4. Alternatively, if the elims have two artists (of which the other one isn't Elenion), it could have been that the elims determined it earlier, though I do not think it very likely that they had a second artist (who is not Elenion), found this information and kept it unused until now, as it could have been used to build trust with Aman.

In conclusion, for Amanuensis's story to have been true, the elims would have had to have taken 5 actions last cycle, which would mean there are 5 elims. As there are only 9 of us left, this would have already resulted in a game-over.

So, is this complete airthight? Unfortunately, no, as I've had to make two assumptions. However, I believe both are fairly reasonable assumptions to make.

Edited April 26, 2017 by randuir
I'm tired, and my syntax is crap. And my spelling

[Seonid he/him]

9 minutes ago, randuir said:

Alright, thank you Elenion. I assume you've contacted @OrlokTsubodai about this and he can confirm your story?

Anyway, on to my own thing. Some people have been looking at Aman's and Jondesu's past posts to try and figure out which of them is evil. However, figuring out which of Jon and Aman is evil is actually more like a logical puzzle. Allow me to demonstrate.

Before I start though, there is 1 assumption I have to make, and one 'You'll just have to take my word for it'. First, I'm assuming Orlok and Seonid are not both Elims.. Secondly, as I said before, I claim to have made a line of warding last cycle. To add to this, I'm also a Sentry. Lopen knew, and maybe he has told someone still allive that can coorborate this part of my claim.

anyway, moving on, we actually know of three of the actions that the elims have taken this cycle. These are:

1. Attacking Lopen
2. Attacking Brightness
3. Disrupting Seonid's line of forbiddance (if Seonid is village) or having Seonid draw a line of forbiddance targeted at somebody else than Lopen so he can gather trust by pretending he protected Lopen if he got scanned(if Seonid is an elim).

Now, let's look at the case in which Jondesu is right. What other actions would the elims have to take? The answer is actually none. If I was the only one to draw a line of warding, three elims could have been enough to break the defenses. If there where others, then a fourth elim could have broken the one of the lines of warding to ensure a failure of the defenses.

Now, let's look at the case in which Aman is right. The elims would have to take the following additional actions:

1. disrupt either me or Aman with a line of Vigor (as otherwise there would have been at least 4 liens of warding guarding the village)
2. Scan Aman to determine his specialization.

This second action needs more explaining. As Aman hasn't shared his specialization with anyone alive, the elims would have had to determine it the hard way for Jondesu to make the claim he did. As Jon's other scan is accounted for, he's had to scan Aman C4. Alternatively, if the elims have two artists (of which the other one isn't Elenion), it could have been that the elims determined it earlier, though I do not think it very likely that they had a second artist (who is not Elenion), found this information and kept it unused until now, as it could have been used to build trust with Aman.

In conclusion, for Amanuensis's story to have been true, the elims would have had to have taken 5 actions last cycle, which would mean there are 5 elims. As there are only 9 of us left, this would have already resulted in a game-over.

So, is this complete airthight? Unfortunately, no, as I've had to make two assumptions. However, I believe both are fairly reasonable assumptions to make.

Excellent. I'd still like to see everyone else's actions, but it's enough to make me willing to change my vote. Jondesu

Aman

EDIT: Randuir, Lopen told me he knew of a couple Sentries warding last night when he asked me to take my Warding off and protect him instead. To me, that lends credence to your claim.

Edited April 26, 2017 by Seonid
Avoiding double posting

[Amanuensis he/him]

30 minutes ago, randuir said:

Alright, thank you Elenion. I assume you've contacted @OrlokTsubodai about this and he can confirm your story?

Anyway, on to my own thing. Some people have been looking at Aman's and Jondesu's past posts to try and figure out which of them is evil. However, figuring out which of Jon and Aman is evil is actually more like a logical puzzle. Allow me to demonstrate.

Before I start though, there is 1 assumption I have to make, and one 'You'll just have to take my word for it'. First, I'm assuming Orlok and Seonid are not both Elims.. Secondly, as I said before, I claim to have made a line of warding last cycle. To add to this, I'm also a Sentry. Lopen knew, and maybe he has told someone still allive that can coorborate this part of my claim.

anyway, moving on, we actually know of three of the actions that the elims have taken this cycle. These are:

1. Attacking Lopen
2. Attacking Brightness
3. Disrupting Seonid's line of forbiddance (if Seonid is village) or having Seonid draw a line of forbiddance targeted at somebody else than Lopen so he can gather trust by pretending he protected Lopen if he got scanned(if Seonid is an elim).

Now, let's look at the case in which Jondesu is right. What other actions would the elims have to take? The answer is actually none. If I was the only one to draw a line of warding, three elims could have been enough to break the defenses. If there where others, then a fourth elim could have broken the one of the lines of warding to ensure a failure of the defenses.

Now, let's look at the case in which Aman is right. The elims would have to take the following additional actions:

1. Disrupt either me or Aman with a line of Vigor (as otherwise there would have been at least 4 lines of warding guarding the village)
2. Scan Aman to determine his specialization.

This second action needs more explaining. As Aman hasn't shared his specialization with anyone alive, the elims would have had to determine it the hard way for Jondesu to make the claim he did. As Jon's other scan is accounted for, he's had to scan Aman C4. Alternatively, if the elims have two artists (of which the other one isn't Elenion), it could have been that the elims determined it earlier, though I do not think it very likely that they had a second artist (who is not Elenion), found this information and kept it unused until now, as it could have been used to build trust with Aman.

In conclusion, for Amanuensis's story to have been true, the elims would have had to have taken 5 actions last cycle, which would mean there are 5 elims. As there are only 9 of us left, this would have already resulted in a game-over.

So, is this complete airthight? Unfortunately, no, as I've had to make two assumptions. However, I believe both are fairly reasonable assumptions to make.

You're discounting the possibility that Jon scanned Lopen C1 and myself C3, and thus knew my role already, or that both Len and Jon are Forgotten!Artists and have managed to scan four players. There's also the possibility that PK scanned me and spread that information, but I can't say because I haven't heard anything about PK's scans (has anyone heard anything about it?).

What we all can be certain about is that there are 4 Forgotten. One killed Lopen, one killed Brightness, one Vigor'd Seonid, and 1 Vigor'd me (or you, if you honestly think I'm evil). Not sure where the math doesn't check out there in either scenario (Jond lying, or me lying). Now think about this cycle from the Forgotten's perspective. They just have to lynch a single villager to end it, or end the day in a tie so that their faction kill and a couple well-placed vigors can allow for a conversion. Why would they not just blatantly accuse a player of using Vigor themselves? Jondesu was unlikely to have been targeted by a Line of Making himself, given his level of activity, and not pulling this maneuver would have left minimal direction for those to accuse. It's really the perfect scenario for them, and right now I believe that you're either falling for it or a part of the scheme.

25 minutes ago, Seonid said:

Excellent. I'd still like to see everyone else's actions, but it's enough to make me willing to change my vote. Jondesu

Aman

EDIT: Randuir, Lopen told me he knew of a couple Sentries warding last night when he asked me to take my Warding off and protect him instead. To me, that lends credence to your claim.

It also lends credence to my claim. Last cycle I put in thread I was going to PM Lopen with my role and my actions, and actually did. So between Rand and I, we could both be telling the truth, just as likely as one of us could be lying about their action.

@Seonid, can I not convince you to reconsider your vote? I truly think you're village, based on the analysis I made earlier, and especially so now that Len and Rand have conveniently joined the lynch against me within such a short period of time. While Rand has thought one theory, he happens to ignore possibilities like Jon lying about the order of his Makings, which bring us to the exact same scenario overall: my word or Jon's.

Considering that earlier this turn I posted analysis that pointed out Jon potentially trying to distance himself from Rand C1, as well as him not using a line of Making on Len, who at the end of C3 he himself said would rise on his suspicion list if Ecth was village, this looks pretty obviously to me as team coordination. At this point in the game, why would Jon decide to check me before one of his top suspicions? That really makes no sense to me. Does it make no sense to anyone else?

Furthermore, what about the 2nd Assassin? The one that killed last night? Both Lopen and HH verified that HH protected me on C2, and that would have been the time they knew I was vulnerable if one of the four Forgotten at least used a Line of Making on me (there's nothing to say it had to be an Artist who scanned me that turn).

Right now my absolute trusts are Orlok and Seonid, based on me knowing that Jon is lying. For the reasons I detailed in my analysis of Jon, I think that Rand and Len are his teammates. Among HH, Joe and Mint, one of them is the fourth teammate. Probably not HH since he voted for Jon, and I still don't think Joe is evil, so that really just leaves Mint.

---

(C5) Votes: Thus Far

(4) Amanuensis: Jondesu, Elenion, randuir, Seonid, 

(2) Jondesu: Amanuensis, Seonid, Hemalurgic_Headshot,

Edited April 26, 2017 by Amanuensis

[Jondesu he/him]

Alright, I'm back, because the important message was just received.  Sart has confirmed that he did not make a mistake, and that means Aman is lying, and he did draw a Line of Vigor (presumably helping to kill Lopen, though I haven't been able to pin which of those kills was aided by that).

@Amanuensis, here's what I really don't like about this tactic you're employing.  Sure, you're lying, but that's just part of the game, and doesn't really bother me (I was prepared to counter a lie, and just waiting to see what it might be, though I didn't expect you to lie about using the Line of Vigor in the first place, just to come up with an inventive lie to justify it instead).

However, instead, you blamed a GM mistake. That's crossing a line, in my opinion.  Saying I'm lying is fine.  Saying you did something else is fine.  Claiming the GM made a mistake is not.

I realize this isn't written down in any rules anywhere, most likely, but it definitely crosses a line I've felt existed here, though maybe I thought too highly of some people.  I really didn't expect it of you, though.