Mid-Range Game 21: The Battle for Nebrask

[BrightnessRadiant she/her]

So turns out I didn't get to post earlier like I said I might because I was SUPER busy on sunday and monday! Also, feeling pretty out of it so i hope my post still makes sense when I'm done 

I am sad that Ecthelion and PK were both killed last cycle...two more villagers gone!  I feel like this cycle is aptly named, Tension, seeing as how everyone seems to be quite stressed in their posts  I have to keep reminding myself as well that it's just a game, but I still care lol

 I wanted to let everyone know that, before Paranoid King died he told me that he was suspicious of Ornstein, Aman, Joe, and Elenion. He never got a chance to tell me why before he was killed. Maybe he got too close, or just unlucky that they targeted him. He was also an artist though, so he may have found out something important that they didn't want him sharing. I figured the other villagers should know this in case i'm the only one PK told. He had scanned me in the last cycle and said he thought i was a villager and knew my special, but i don't know if he shared that info with anyone. I also feel like the Elims have been too "lucky" with their seemingly informed village kills so far. They have gotten rid of one of our non rithmatists( very important to the village), and two of our duelists who could block the Elims actions and be notified of what actions they tried to take and they also got rid of PK who was an artist who might have seen something. Sounds to me like the Elims might have an artist or duelist (or both) of their own.

I have been doing analysis on everyone that I suspect, and as I promised here are my thoughts on them...

Seonid-  Seonid accused Lopen of DA's death and asked him to reveal information that would have been very dangerous for Lopen as a villager. next, Seonid claims that we should lynch him to prove his innocence, which oddly seems to be a trend this cycle, considering that he is the third person to say that. I suspect at least one of the players who have said we would find them innocent by lynching them to be an Elim...Seonid, Joe, and Aman. It just seems like the kind of bluff an Elim would try to pull.

Joe- Lopen told me that he was gonna ask the assassin to attack Joe last cycle. I suppose it could have been coincidence that Joe protected himself on that same cycle, or the assassin may have warned him if he was an Elim partner. I find this to be unlikely as i believe that the assassin role would more likely have been given to the village than the Elims. Also it does make sense that Joe would protect himself last cycle since suspicion of him was loudly proclaimed, so he could have been afraid of an attack. I haven't heard very many good reasons as to why people suspect him other than their guts lol, but I don't hear a lot of reasons not to suspect him either considering that I have very little info gathered about him that could persuade me one way or another. But i have a lot of info gathered on others and i trust them more than i trust Joe...which starts to narrow down my list of suspicious people, and sadly he is still on it for lack of village related info on him. Also, a lot of people that i feel are village are saying that they suspect him so it doesn't look good.

Ornstein- just seems like a lurking creeper lol.... @Ornstein you haven't posted much but you did ask a question on one cycle which i took note of but couldn't tell if it was suspicious or an actual concern on your part....you asked if lines of making could show if the forgotten had killed someone...which could either mean you used a line of making on someone and came up empty handed which left you confused, or you were trying to find out if someone could have seen some action that you had taken. I kinda feel like you wouldn't have exposed yourself by asking that question if you were an Elim, but seriously, you should totally post more so we can trust you if you are a villager...your vote for Aman was completely unexplained. I am a little suspicious of Aman as well, but at least I am trying to give reasons for my votes and suspicions. If you don't want us to suspect you, you should probably speak up more.

Jondesu- has been relatively active, but I'm very undecided on him which, at this point in the game, means that he is still not cleared as a suspect.

Elenion- I am growing more suspicious of him based on info i have gathered from other players in PMs. He has been helpful to the village throughout the game, but i have a growing concern in my mind to whether he is actually on our side. I role claimed to him on the first day because I was a new player and unaware of the danger that could pose later in the game, but I am still alive so i can't help but feel a little less suspicious of him. Still PK was suspicious of him before he died, and Lopen is as well, so that doesn't bode well for him. I have gone back and forth on him so many times that I'm dizzy lol

The people I trust are Lopen, HH, Frozen Mint, randuir, and possibly Orlok and Aman. (and of course, myself ) that makes 7 people i trust and 5 that i don't  that's not very reassuring

The reasons for my trusting these people are partly from PMs i've had, and partly from what they have posted throughout the game. I don't want to tell my actual reasons in the thread for fear of accidentally giving out information that would be dangerous for the Elims to know. Obviously, I trust Lopen though because he has been proven to be the non rithmatist by like 3 people who i trust. 

I suppose all that is left for me to do is vote. I know it probably doesn't sound like I have very many good reasons for my suspicions on the people I mentioned, but some of the reasons I suspect them are also because of PMs so sorry if my explanations sound a little thin. I will vote Joe because to me he seems to be the most likely Elim, and if he is than i think we will get a lot of beneficial information from his death.

We're coming for you Elims...we aren't giving up yet!

Don't forget to send in your actions this cycle! We can't afford to lose anyone to the inactive filter...unless you're an Elim, in which case you can go right ahead and forget what i said lol 

[DeTess she/her]

There's 12 people still alive, less than five hours left on the clock, and only 5 votes cast. People, please vote if you think yourself capable of making an informed decision, as this might be one of the most important lynches of the game.

Vote tally:

Joe (2): Lopen, Brightness

Seonid (2): Len, randuir

Aman (1): Ornstein

edit: ninja'd by Brightness, added her vote to the tally.

Edited April 25, 2017 by randuir

[Hemalurgic Headshot he/him]

So PK wasn't evil, just less talkative. However, Ornstein has also been not as talkative, is still alive, provides little evidence for votes (he called Aman out with simply his gut, nothing else), and I listed him earlier (most likely last cycle) as one of my suspicions. Ornstein's posts set me off... perhaps from just how uninformative they are.

Ornstein

[Seonid he/him]

Storm it. I know I'm innocent. I don't know about anyone else. I'll break the tie on myself. Joe

[Mint11 she/her]

Unfortunately, I haven't been able to devote as much time to this game as I'd like, so I probably didn't help the lack of early lynch discussion.  But I'll try to share some quick thoughts.

On 4/24/2017 at 3:53 PM, Seonid said:

Well,  if Lopen isn't keeping things hush hush, I can give more details. I an the non- Artist that scanned Lopen. I did so d1, and could not verify that he hadn't killed DA. Which i found to be disconcerting, given his loudly stated protests to the contrary.

So I confronted him about it.  And then got in contact with of the Artists who had scanned him.  And then didn't want to say much more in thread to avoid giving away privileged information.  So there it is.

This explanation assuages me somewhat. If it was earlier in the game, I would have probably been more satisfied, but I feel like we're on a thin line right now which is making me more suspicious of everyone in general. Some of you have to be elims. I won't vote on Seonid this cycle, but I still want to keep an eye on him.

Ornstein is really rubbing me the wrong way this cycle. Again, he has voted on someone without contributing to the discussion. I had said before that his posts lack subtlety that I would expect from elims. But I'm not quite sure what would motivate a villager to post the way he's been doing. At least if he's an elim, I can imagine that there could be some reverse psychology going on. Because what elim would post in a way that was so directly unhelpful to the village? @Ornstein Could you elaborate on your vote for Aman?

Moving on to other lynch candidates. At this point, I don't think Joe's done anything indicating that he's an elim, but his posts don't seem helpful and villagery either. So I'm suspicious of him as well, similar to how I feel about Seonid.

And Aman... Well, I find it really hard to read him. For that reason I have him as neutral currently, but I can't say that I have a solid read.

On 4/24/2017 at 11:55 AM, TheMightyLopen said:

I'll go ahead and change my vote to Joe, since I think I'm more suspicious of him than you. Aman.

If you were more suspicious of Joe, why had you originally voted for Aman? I'm curious.

 

ETA-

Vote tally:

Joe (3): Lopen, Brightness, Seonid

Seonid (2): Len, randuir

Ornstein (2): HH, Mint

Aman (1): Ornstein

Edited April 25, 2017 by Frozen Mint

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

Okay, just in case I somehow die, here's as much analysis as I have the time for:

Elenion - He came up with the coinflip plan, which wasn't bad. But he didn't comment on the lynch until I brought up that he hadn't. At which point he said the Straw and SB lynches didn't seem good(maybe he knew they were villagers?), and then voted on Stick(I didn't like his reasoning very much, tbh). 2nd Cycle, he votes on Joe instead of Stick, for discussion reasons. He says he has a village read on Brightness, me because of how open I was about contact with DA, and didn't think HH was being different than normal with his vote on Straw. So he was saying Joe was the most suspicious vote on Straw. After a while, Len switches his vote to Stick to cement that lynch. Stick turned out village, so Len reevaluated his reads. He said his elim read of Joe was based on the fact that he drew the lynch away from Stick, but since Stick was village, his read of Joe went back to neutral. He kinda backtracks on his reads of me and HH, saying he needs to analyze me more and it might be worth looking into HH. He also said he had a gut village read on PK. He then posted his analysis of all of my posts. Not much to say about that post, though I did kind of get the feeling he didn't want to give a strong opinion either way when he first posted it. He then votes on Ecth because of Ecth's vote on him, and the fact that Ecth didn't respond to Len's post in response to Ecth's vote. He says he's worried about the Ecth bandwagon later on, which could be him hedging, but leaves his vote on Ecth and also bumps me up to a village read instead of neutral(he seemed to be convinced fairly easily). And now he's voted on Seonid which was very early in the Cycle, but hasn't posted since. He's been around and responded to my PM's, but I find it suspicious that he hasn't been more active in the discussion today. This is likely the turning point in the game, so we need everyone to be discussing, not just posting once about one player. Overall, I'm fairly suspicious of him.

Aman - I don't have a lot of time, so I'll skip doing a post by post analysis of Aman. His responses this Cycle have given me a slightly more village read than earlier, but I don't trust him all that much right now. He did tell me his role and what he's done so far, but I'd expect him to do that from either side. One thing I thought might point to him being village is that I feel like it's likely the Forgotten knew I was a Non-Rithmatist by last Cycle, and he did his post where he voted on me and cast suspicion on me. If he was a Forgotten, I think it would be likely that he'd have known I was a village only role, so I don't think he'd have tried to go after me like that. So overall, I'm not as suspicious as I was earlier, but am still wary.

Seonid - I voted on him C1, but all he posted was the he tended not to participate in D1 lynches. I feel like he probably would have tried to post more if he was a Forgotten. After that, he focused on me for a bit, since he scanned me when I didn't make a Rithmatic action, which is understandable. He then posted that he had a bad gut read on Aman, but that he always does, so he doesn't really suspect him too much. He also said he didn't like the Ecth lynch, but since he was the second target, couldn't do anything about it, and other than that, didn't suspect/trust anyone very much. Again, it seems like a Forgotten would try to give more substantial reads so they wouldn't get suspected for not doing much. This Cycle, he revealed that he scanned me with a Line of Making, and said other stuff you can read for yourself that I don't really have a strong opinion of.  Overall, I'm leaning village, since he's been open with me in PM's, and his posts have given me a village read. Also Len is voting on him. >>

Jondesu - Since I'm running out of time, here's a few points in favor of Jon that I noticed quickly looking over his latest posts. He voiced suspicion of PK and voted on him directly before PK was killed by the Forgotten. I feel like he probably wouldn't have done that as a Forgotten(maybe, but eh ). He's also been fairly open with me in PM's, and I haven't really seen anything from him that's made me suspect him. On the other hand, I haven't seen a lot that makes me trust him, but since we've yet to find an eliminator, that's true for a lot of players. Slight village read.

Joe - I don't really feel like going over all of the reasons why I suspect Joe. I've gotten a consistently bad read from his posts, and he protected himself when he was under a lot of suspicion(which isn't super suspicious, but meh, I feel like he would have known he wasn't likely to die by the Forgotten at least, so he would be less likely to protect himself as a villager). Also what Randuir mentioned, that he dared us to lynch him when it's a very important lynch. Maybe he only said that because he was frustrated with me for still being suspicious of him, but honestly, I'm not going to change my mind unless I feel like there's good reason to and I just haven't seen anything like that from Joe. Leaning elim, and hoping I'm not wrong. >>

I think that's it for now. Understand that I have information in PM's that do affect these reads, but I can't share that information.

Frozen Mint, I had directed that post mostly at Aman, so I voted on him. At that point, I was pretty evenly suspicious of them both though. I changed my vote to Joe once Aman had responded, since his responses made me slightly less suspicious of him.

Oh, and to respond to Aman, PK was not one of the Artists who'd scanned me.

[Elenion he/him]

Like on D1, I haven't said much this cycle because I don't have much more to say. I haven't had the time to make another multi-hour analysis, although I've been on enough to answer some PMs, and most living players are the same in my reads as they've been for a while. Lopen seems village, although he unfortunately doesn't reciprocate that. Brightness and Frozen Mint seen helpful, too. HH has done the usual bandwagoning, Ornstein has been quiet as always, and Joe hasn't let up on the taunting. Aman is always inscrutible. I've already explained why I find Seonid suspicious. Jondesu and Rand seem more quiet than they have been in previous games. Nobody's made analysis that's very convincing, so I've just kept my vote on Seonid and watched.

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

Praise be to Buddha! I no longer have to work a 16 hour shift tonight. I will be online until rollover

Joe (3): Lopen, Brightness, Seonid

Seonid (2): Len, randuir

Ornstein (2): HH, Mint

Aman (1): Ornstein

I am frustrated by how much Lopen is tunneling on me, but I'm not taunting people to vote for me. I want either an eliminaotr or myself lynched today, because if an elim isn't lynched today, and I'm still alive, i don't see Lopen and the people who trust him not continuing to go after me tomorrow, at which point there will be 3 elims and 5 villagers, assuming that they still haven't pulled off a conversion. So yeah. Either me or an elim needs to die in two hours, or i don't see the village winning.

Which brings me to the lynch targets. Myself, Seonid, ornstein and Aman.

Myself, is either the worst of the best lynches, or the best of the worst lynches. Me dying frees up village resources; the assassin can kill someone else, Lopen, rightness, the assassin can lead the lynch against someone more suspicous, but I will have died, and probably, another villager will have died, putting us down to 3 against 7.

Seonid is only a single vote behind me. i can tie the votes between us, But, do i think he's an eliminator? Ehhhhh, i think it's slightly more likely that he is than not. but those aren't the best of odds. I wouldlike to see him dead, but i'm not certain i can justify voting for him when there is 

Ornstein I'd be willing to give 75% odds he's an eliminator, and he's also a vote behind me. the vote is now tied three to three. He's been consitently less helpful, and I've mentioned suspicion of him before. I'll dig through and find the post and edit it in after i get this up.

Aman: I'm still consistently reading neutral on him, which makes me want him dead. But i haven't had time to go through his posts with the necessary level of atention to actually sleuth him out. I'll do that after i find the Ornstein link, but i don't see myself voting on him anyway, since he only has 1 vote.

EDIT: The Link

 

Edited April 26, 2017 by A Joe in the Bush

[BrightnessRadiant she/her]

@Amanuensis @OrlokTsubodai @Jondesu we could really use more votes so the lynch doesn't end up tied 

[Sart he/him]

Rule Clarification:

Quote

What is the Order of Actions for this game?

Vigor > Forbiddance > Silencing > Warding > Acid Specialist > Non-Rithmatist > Lynch > Revocation > Elim Kill > Making

In retrospect, I should have posted this one sooner.

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

Vote tally:

Joe(3): Lopen, Brightness, Seonid
Ornstein(3): HH, Frozen Mint, Joe
Seonid(2): Len, Randuir
Aman(1): Ornstein

@Ornstein, @Elenion, @randuir, do any of you want to change your votes? The Ornstein lynch doesn't seem like a very good option to me. He's barely said anything and hardly anyone has said much about him. He didn't say very much in LG32 either, and he was village. I've spoken with him in PM's, but we haven't said much. I haven't seen anything from him that really makes me think he's a Forgotten though, so I'm concerned that he's tied for the lynch when it's such an important lynch. Maybe I'm wrong, but I know I'm village and I'm almost certain Brightness is, and I'm leaning village on Seonid right now. So between all of the lynches, the one least likely to be supported by an eliminator is the one on Joe.

Rand, you've stated suspicion of Joe. If your vote on Seonid isn't going to do any good, wouldn't you rather Joe be lynched than Ornstein?

[Amanuensis he/him]

Not only was my boss late, but he wanted to dig through everything. To be completely honest, I could have been on earlier, but I was hungry and offered a free meal, so... yeah. Sorry about not getting on sooner.

I was originally going to do analysis of the three players I am most suspicious of, which I think has boiled down to Len, Joe and Rand, but I'm going to settle for those who have votes now, since I can hardly start a lynch on another player at this point. First up is Joe, who I'm mainly suspicious of because so many other people have been saying they're suspicious of him without doing much about it.

Joe's first post. Nothing note worthy except that I found it odd he was so adverse to poke voting. My initial thought was that he was a Forgotten or had a powerful Specialization... so I asked him about it.

Joe replies to me, starting off with a tangent about him autofollowing the threads, so that just because he receives notifications doesn't mean he pays attention to them all the time. In response to my previous question, says that poke votes irritate him, which is understandable considering how poorly I think of them, too (I usually end up voting for a player who poke voted just to prove a point). Ultimately his response alleviated my initial worry, and now that I know he's a Guardian, I can see him being afraid of being a lynched since he could theoretically be a problem for the Forgotten. That being said, there's no reason why the Forgotten can't have a Guardian themselves, if the Assassin is telling the truth, and there's also the possibility that the Assassin and him are teammates that are lying about the situation to cover each others bases.

This post reads village-aligned all the way through, really. The only thing I find a little questionable is the fact that he jokingly requests that the Forgotten don't kill high-profile players, and that's exactly what they've been doing, assuming every successful kill so far has been theirs. A few things like him trying to poke holes in the various plans presented (without casting suspicion on those players, which shows a desire for constructing a better plan) and him being hesitant to vote for anyone on day one makes me think he wasn't particularly eager to kill anyone, which is generally a villager-thing-to-do. He also actively questions players on their votes when there's not enough information to glean from it. Granted, this could all be him pretending since in this same post he mentions good eliminators doing things that hurt their team to seem village, but nothing he really says feels here feels unnatural or forced to me.

Oh right. I asked Joe why he didn't comment on me, since the last time he made a post like this in LG31, the opposite of what I said above was prevalent throughout his post, particularly a few comments where it felt like he was buttering me up. It immediately made me suspicious of him that game, and lo and behold he was an eliminator. Could he have learned his lesson since then? Probably. Joe is a clever guy. But I'm usually very good at figuring out when Joe is an eliminator (did it D1 of LG26 too) and I'm not feeling that way at all so far.

Also I should note it's at this stage that after prodding from Lopen he decides to vote. His reasoning for voting on Straw is because it might bring evidence of me being evil to the thread, which kind of makes me suspicious since I feel like people have been looking for excuses to lynch me, and whenever that happens I immediately become suspicious of them. But Lopen's been doing the same thing and he's confirmed village, so I'm not sure if I can hold it against Joe.

First post he made C2, after DA was killed. Entire thing is focused on trying to figure out who was in contact with him, which initially made me think it was because he was a Forgotten who wanted to frame one of them, but like I said that turn, I feel like this is too blatant for Joe. On the other hand, a villager would want the answers to these questions just as much in case it did lead to a genuine lead... which sadly it didn't, Could see this post going either way.

Typical Joe snark. Not really alignment indicative, I don't think, and because of my previous reads of his posts, I trust he's telling the truth here.

Votes on Stick mostly because people suspect him of being teammates with her. Not very alignment indicative, and now that we know that Stick was village, his actions are understandable from either side.

Nothing I really feel comment worthy, except for the part where he gets tired of defending himself. I can sympathize with that completely because every time I'm village and players make me waste valuable analysis time on trying to argue why I'm innocent - or, at the very least, not suspicious - I get similarly frustrated. See the turn in LG31 where Orlok accused me, if you want a good example.

So Joe explains that he's busy, which I respect because a big thing for me is keeping other players informed, and then after Lopen retracts his vote he goes on to say that he should have time later so if Lopen wants to put the vote back, it's fine. At this point in the game I think that a Forgotten would be a lot more concerned about being lynched when he doesn't have the ability to defend himself, so yeah. Leaning village here, too.

Makes sure to correct the tally I messed up when I was forced to rush to work. Inherently a good thing as not everyone keeps track of votes and not doing so could lead to an unintended lynch, but it also could be because he's Forgotten and one of his allies was in danger... but considering that Ecth had 5 versus PK's 2 and that both were villagers, I doubt it. He also brings up some things that can be construed as Ecth defenses, and proceeds to vote on Ornstein, who unlike the other players who were close to being lynched the previous turn hasn't been revealed a villager, so that earns him some brownie points in my book, too. It goes without saying that he could have done that on purpose being a Forgotten who knew their alignments, Ultimately he doesn't even try to move the lynch though, just votes on Ornstein because he wants him to participate more, which I understand. His theory here on Ornstein seems plausible, and given what Ornstein did earlier this cycle, I'm starting to feel unwell about him as well.

On 4/24/2017 at 0:56 AM, A Joe in the Bush said:

 

 

Tired. Stressful day at work. I'm a guardian, i guarded myself last night. I'm comfortable revealing that becuase the elims won't bother killing me since the village has announced it's trying to kill me. But I've reflipped my coin to decide if I'm warding the village tonight.

I don't see why two 'every other night' illers are unlikely, when everyone* is a 'self protect every other night'

not about me

Please lynch me. it'll stop you from tunneling on me, and my activity is only going to stagnate and decrease from here on out. I'll be pulling a 16hour all night shift on tuesday. i did not know this. I wil try to maintain activity until my death. either way i won't be guarding myself any more. I'm not a forgotten. no clue about Aman. Haven't read any of his posts in the depth necessary to actually analyse him. 'night. I'm going home.

So after all this, an Assassin tries to kill Joe and he survives. Asks to be lynched, which everytime I've seen it followed through with or followed through myself, the player's ended up village. Granted this has happened enough times that an eliminator might start doing it to bluff, which Joe has played enough to realize and is bold enough to try, but considering everything else, I think it's genuine. That and the fact that he's a Guardian who's been protecting himself on odd cycles makes me think he might have been playing with the same mindset as myself. High-profile player, rolled village, likely to be attacked early, so it's better to self-protect into the second cycle so that we have 96-hours of analysis to work with, rather than risk trying to survive for 164 when it could be cut short at 48. Granted the decision was made on a coin flip, but I think even if I landed heads I would called it a test run to try again, because I honestly expected to die C1 after all the work I put into the game.

57 minutes ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

 

 

Praise be to Buddha! I no longer have to work a 16 hour shift tonight. I will be online until rollover

Joe (3): Lopen, Brightness, Seonid

Seonid (2): Len, randuir

Ornstein (2): HH, Mint

Aman (1): Ornstein

I am frustrated by how much Lopen is tunneling on me, but I'm not taunting people to vote for me. I want either an eliminaotr or myself lynched today, because if an elim isn't lynched today, and I'm still alive, i don't see Lopen and the people who trust him not continuing to go after me tomorrow, at which point there will be 3 elims and 5 villagers, assuming that they still haven't pulled off a conversion. So yeah. Either me or an elim needs to die in two hours, or i don't see the village winning.

Which brings me to the lynch targets. Myself, Seonid, ornstein and Aman.

Myself, is either the worst of the best lynches, or the best of the worst lynches. Me dying frees up village resources; the assassin can kill someone else, Lopen, rightness, the assassin can lead the lynch against someone more suspicous, but I will have died, and probably, another villager will have died, putting us down to 3 against 7.

Seonid is only a single vote behind me. i can tie the votes between us, But, do i think he's an eliminator? Ehhhhh, i think it's slightly more likely that he is than not. but those aren't the best of odds. I wouldlike to see him dead, but i'm not certain i can justify voting for him when there is 

Ornstein I'd be willing to give 75% odds he's an eliminator, and he's also a vote behind me. the vote is now tied three to three. He's been consitently less helpful, and I've mentioned suspicion of him before. I'll dig through and find the post and edit it in after i get this up.

Aman: I'm still consistently reading neutral on him, which makes me want him dead. But i haven't had time to go through his posts with the necessary level of atention to actually sleuth him out. I'll do that after i find the Ornstein link, but i don't see myself voting on him anyway, since he only has 1 vote.

Finally, Joe's last post. He wants me dead but I can't really argue with much else. I don't understand what he means by Ornstein link, though?

As for Seonid, I don't have much more to add than I've said about him already, although I will respond to his last post a bit.

23 hours ago, Seonid said:

 

 

Interesting theory, Aman. Full marks for effort.

A little problem with your timing. Sart confirmed that there were no Forgotten non-specialists C1, while my pressure on Lopen didn't occur until early C2. Lopen didn't even respond to my PM until C3, by which time I had already guessed his role.

Of course, it doesn't clear me - but your particular theory fails to match up to facts. From an objective standpoint, I can't think of a way to clear myself. I can have the Artist scan me to verify my role. But that only speaks to role distribution probabilities. I got nothing. Looking at things without my personal data points, I'm probably the most legitimately suspicious player at the moment. I know I'm not evil, but I doubt that matters. Lynch me if you like. We're getting close to dangerous territory, and I'd rather keep my village body alive and using Lines of Warding to keep the conversions out, but I'll understand if you don't feel the same way.

I feel like he's being sarcastic here, which automatically makes me feel adverse towards this post, but I think that might be a pride thing rather than legitimate suspicion. I can't really argue with the faults he brought up in my theory. Plus the fact that he's agreed he seems very suspicious and that he offers us to lynch him... I'm going to go on a leap of faith here and trust he's village. He later changes his mind because he "knows he's village" and votes on Joe to make a tie, and considering that after looking through all of Joe's posts again and reading them mostly village, I could see this as a Forgotten realizing his bluff failed and deciding voting for a village Guardian to hopefully get him lynched instead... but I don't know. Like Joe, I feel less strongly about him than I do Ornstein.

Just a second ago I got ninja'd by Lopen saying he doesn't understand the lynch on Ornstein, which I can see from his perspective, maybe. But the thing is I know I'm village. I also know that in games I'm village, my name and reputation gets mentioned, on average, more than other players. Given how new of a player he is, and how "spur of the moment" his play style is, I could very well see him being a Forgotten who's been listening to his teammates talk about how dangerous I am and how they want me dead, so the moment he sees a confirmed villager vote for me, he jumps on it quickly, as if he's been waiting for the opportunity all game.

Plus, generally GMs like to put one newer player on an eliminator team, that way they can get to know players better and learn more about the game and tactics. That and with him being a new player means that he was the least likely to be checked by an Artist or by a mundane Line of Making. Which means that Ornstein would likely be the one making the kills, and he was also the player who voted on PK last turn when Mint started asking if anyone wanted to save Ecth by voting for PK. This makes me wonder if the kill on PK was a last minute decision.

Ultimately I've decided to vote for Ornstein. After rereading Joe's posts and analyzing him I honestly don't think he's evil. Between Seonid and Ornstein, I'm more suspicious of the latter, although I understand why other people might not feel the same since they don't know I'm telling the truth about my alignment. I'm sorry, Lopen. I know this isn't what you want, but I legitimately think you're wrong about Joe.

[Jondesu he/him]

I honestly didn't think I made it back in time for rollover (I had 8PM EST stuck in my head), so I can cast a vote. I'll confess, it's not as well thought through personally as I'd like, but from reading the assessments of Joe and Ornstein by other players, I have to agree that Ornstein is by far the more suspicious player right now. I can see Joe saying he's willing to die as an Elim bold move, but nothing in that post came across that way to me. It was someone tired of just being tunneled on, and I haven't seen much good reasoning to vote for him. So, that's where my vote is coming from.

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

Aman, i want you dead because i don't want to have to read through all of your posts to figure out if you're evil or not. even when you're 'terse' you out talk eveveryone else. I never did start reading your posts, i got distracted by a Pm. (Yay! I have a PM in this game now!)

and i edited the Ornstein link into the bottom of my post, probably after you quoted it. It's just a link to a post where i explained in a bit more detail why i was suspicious of Ornstein.

[Sart he/him]

That's time. Cycle is closed.

[Sart he/him]

It might take me a little bit to get the write-up done, since people kept changing their actions at the last minute. Give me a couple minutes.

[Sart he/him]

The village was in an uproar. Two main candidates were brought forward. Conner, the young man who hadn't been talking much, and Joel, who had been sleeping through half of the proceedings. Votes were cast, alliances were made and at last the town was nearing a decision.

"Ahem." started Lance. "We find that..."

Joel stirred from his slumber, and looked over at the horizon.

"Chalkling attack!" he screamed, running away from the camp.

The town looked behind them. A massive swarm of chalklings had breached the Circle and were heading straight at them.

"It's Conner!" shouted Kyle. "No Forgotten would warn about their own attack. Get him!"

The crowd quickly turned bloodthirsty. Conner tried to defend himself, but there was nothing he could do. With the weight of both the camp and the chalklings attacking him, he quickly succumbed. Cole landed the fatal blow, and yet no Chalklings poured out from Conner. He had been human.

The camp didn't have time to worry about that now, The horde was upon them.

Amelia quickly got to work. She didn't have time to waste. She was in charge of the acid for the camp, which was crucial in a situation like this. She ran to her tent. There, under the bed, was a full barrel of acid. That should be enough to stop it. She opened the cork, and a single drip came out. The barrel was empty.

"How?" she asked, dumbfounded.

She was the only one who knew about this secret stash. How could the saboteurs know about it? A person casually strolled into her tent. No, not a person, a Forgotten. Its eyes glowed white as it examined her. Amelia was no good in a fight. When she was on her own, she could make beautiful drawings, but she could hardly draw a straight line in a melee. She silently prayed to the Maker, hoping that someone would rescue her. She shakily tried to draw a Line of Warding. The assailant casually broke through it. The Forgotten smiled at her, as wild chalklings began flooding the tent. She desperately tried drawing a Line of Vigor, trying to shoot the horde, but it was no use. She was quickly overwhelmed as the chalklings began tearing at her dress, and gnawing at her skin. Amelia could only scream as the Forgotten continued smiling at her, its eyes glowing ever whiter in the darkness.

Elsewhere in the camp, Lance wasn't having much luck either. Although he used to have Rithmatic powers, after the accident, he could no longer draw even the most basic Line. He was no better than a Non-Rithmatist. What he lacked in power, however, he made up for in knowledge. He had been instructing the town in advanced techniques, and it had been gaining him a leadership position. Unfortunately, that meant nothing in this panic. He desperately ran from the swarm, hoping beyond hope that one of his pupils would save him. Finally, he found someone he recognized. He tried hazarding a greeting, but before any words came out, a gunshot rang out. He looked down at his chest. He had been shot. Why had he been shot? He shouldn't have been shot. He tried saying something, anything. Wasn't this one of his pupils? Another shot rang out. His lifeless body crumbled to the floor, still not comprehending what had happened.

The remaining villagers had retreated to a nearby hill. The wild chalklings were swarming on all sides. Shanice drew a large Line of Warding around the survivors, desperately trying to keep the chalklings out. Then suddenly, the assault stopped. The chalklings danced around the circle, waiting.

"This is it then." stated Locke. "One final chance to kill the Forgotten."

The camp looked around, desperation written on their faces. One way or another, this ended tonight.


Vote Count:
Seonid (2): Elenion, Randuir
Ornstein (5): Amanuensis, Jondesu, Hemalurgic Headshot, Joe, Frozen Mint
Joe (3): Seonid, Lopen, Brightness Ascendant
Amanuensis (1): Ornstein

The town's defense failed. Luckily, an Acid-Specialist was able to stop it. This is your final warning. Make your Lines of Warding, or the Forgotten will get a conversion.

Ornstein was lynched. He was a Village Sentry.
BrightnessRadiant was killed. She was an Acid-Specialist.
TheMightyLopen was killed. He was a Non-Rithmatist.

Player List:

  Hide contents

1. Elenion: Isaac "The Hammer" Jones
2. Amanuensis: Cole
3. Silverblade5: Ryth Village Duelist
4. _Stick_: Stick Village Duelist
5. Darkness Ascendant: K'Sarben Non-Rithmatist
6. Seonid: Shem Onidsen
7. Jondesu: Kyle
8. Hemalurgic_Headshot: Gunther the Slow
9. OrlokTsubodai: Locke
10. A Joe in the Bush: Joel
11. Ecthelion III: Daggertongue Village Sentry
12. Frozen Mint: Shanice
13. Paranoid King: Gimmel Village Artist
14. Ornstein: Conner Village Sentry
15. Straw: Regem Noctis Village Blackmailer
16. randuir: Neil Kores
17. TheMightyLopen: Lance Willis Non-Rithmatist
18. Brightness Radiant: Amelia Acid-Specialist

This cycle will end on Tuesday, at 10 PM Eastern Time.

Edited April 28, 2017 by Alvron
Got Brightness's name wrong.

[Jondesu he/him]

Huh, well, that sucks. Lopen PMed me just before the cycle ended to say that an assassin was going to take out Ornstein, pushing for me to move my vote. I declined since I was genuinely not suspicious of Joe, but obviously the suspicion of Ornstein wasn't better founded. 

The question is, who else knew that Lopen was a non-Rithmatist? I knew, and I am aware that others knew, but not their identities for the most part. If he was targeted intentionally because of his role, which is possible at this point, there must have been a Forgotten among those he told, or perhaps a second-level contact. The only person I'm sure knew is an Assassin, and may have been the one targeting Ornstein, though perhaps they switched targets if they knew he was going to be lynched anyways.

That said, since we need success right now or we're completely screwed, I do want to reveal that I am an Artist, which is how I knew that Lopen was a non-Rithmatist, and last night I sent a Line of Making to scan Aman.

Who drew a Line of Vigor last night. When three villagers were killed. He's a Sentry role, btw, as well, since my specialization shows me that.

Which means I don't think I have much choice but to assume Aman is among the Forgotten, probably the one who targeted Lopen, or perhaps BrightnessAscendant.

[Amanuensis he/him]

16 minutes ago, Jondesu said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Huh, well, that sucks. Lopen PMed me just before the cycle ended to say that an assassin was going to take out Ornstein, pushing for me to move my vote. I declined since I was genuinely not suspicious of Joe, but obviously the suspicion of Ornstein wasn't better founded. 

The question is, who else knew that Lopen was a non-Rithmatist? I knew, and I am aware that others knew, but not their identities for the most part. If he was targeted intentionally because of his role, which is possible at this point, there must have been a Forgotten among those he told, or perhaps a second-level contact. The only person I'm sure knew is an Assassin, and may have been the one targeting Ornstein, though perhaps they switched targets if they knew he was going to be lynched anyways.

That said, since we need success right now or we're completely screwed, I do want to reveal that I am an Artist, which is how I knew that Lopen was a non-Rithmatist, and last night I sent a Line of Making to scan Aman.

Who drew a Line of Vigor last night. When three villagers were killed. He's a Sentry role, btw, as well, since my specialization shows me that.

Which means I don't think I have much choice but to assume Aman is among the Forgotten, probably the one who targeted Lopen, or perhaps BrightnessAscendant.

I want to comment more on this but I need to sleep, so I'll just respond to what's necessary.

He did the same for me. I was about to switch my vote to Joe, but he said not to bother unless you retracted yours.

Everyone knew. Lopen claimed he was a Non-Rithmatist last turn.

You're right that I'm a Sentry, so I'm not surprised if you're truly an Artist, or at least on a team with one. But I did not use a Line of Vigor last night, I warded. Considering that the Acid-Specialist's used their charge, that means I was probably targeted by a Line of Vigor. Now, I mentioned this a turn ago, but you're one of the Artists who scanned Lopen? We know PK was an Artist and Lopen said he didn't scan Lopen, but he also said he was scanned by two Artists total. The village having three Artists seems pretty ridiculous, and I've theorized from the beginning that the Forgotten probably have one, to make their kills more informative.

I'm not among the Forgotten, so I can only assume you are, since there's no redirect abilities in this game. Did you confirm with Sart that he didn't mix up the results with another player? He did say a lot of people changed their orders last minute. Otherwise, I'm guessing that the Forgotten have had four members this entire time, as otherwise you wouldn't risk lying like this to get an easy kill. So Jondesu.

Edited April 26, 2017 by Amanuensis

[Jondesu he/him]

3 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

I want to comment more on this but I need to sleep, so I'll just respond to what's necessary.

He did the same for me. I was about to switch my vote to Joe, but he said not to bother unless you retracted yours.

Everyone knew. Lopen claimed he was a Non-Rithmatist last turn.

You're right that I'm a Sentry, so I'm not surprised if you're truly an Artist. But I did not use a Line of Vigor last night, I warded. Considering that the Acid-Specialist's used their charge, that means I was probably targeted by a Line of Vigor. Now, I mentioned this a turn ago, but you're one of the Artists who scanned Lopen? We know PK was an Artist and Lopen said he didn't scan Lopen, but he also said he was scanned by two Artists total. The village having three Artists seems pretty ridiculous, and I've theorized from the beginning that the Forgotten probably have one, to make their kills more informative.

I'm not among the Forgotten, so I can only assume you are, since there's no redirect abilities in this game. Did you confirm with Sart that he didn't mix up the results with another player? He did say a lot of people changed their orders last minute. Otherwise, I'm guessing that the Forgotten have had four members this entire time, as otherwise you wouldn't risk lying like this. So Jondesu.

Eh, you're right that everyone knew, I'd forgotten.  That doesn't change anything particularly important, though.

I don't know who the other Artist is that scanned Lopen, and I kinda figured PK hadn't scanned Lopen or Lopen would likely have let me know, especially when I was voting on PK, but I don't know why you assume that if I'm an Artist, the village has three.  It's entirely possible we do, btw, but I agree that it's reasonably likely the Forgotten have one.  However, assuming Sart didn't mess something up (and I have asked him for confirmation), you're boldly lying here, probably assuming that no one else can corroborate my story, if the other Artist is indeed your Forgotten teammate.  Perhaps I'm wrong about you, though that could only be possible if there was a mistake at this point, but I don't see that being likely right now.

[Amanuensis he/him]

4 minutes ago, Jondesu said:

 

Eh, you're right that everyone knew, I'd forgotten.  That doesn't change anything particularly important, though.

I don't know who the other Artist is that scanned Lopen, and I kinda figured PK hadn't scanned Lopen or Lopen would likely have let me know, especially when I was voting on PK, but I don't know why you assume that if I'm an Artist, the village has three.  It's entirely possible we do, btw, but I agree that it's reasonably likely the Forgotten have one.  However, assuming Sart didn't mess something up (and I have asked him for confirmation), you're boldly lying here, probably assuming that no one else can corroborate my story, if the other Artist is indeed your Forgotten teammate.  Perhaps I'm wrong about you, though that could only be possible if there was a mistake at this point, but I don't see that being likely right now.

When Lopen claimed he said he was scanned by three different players and two of them were Artists. This was after PK died so I asked him if he was one of them, and Lopen said PK wasn't, so there's another out here somewhere.

[Jondesu he/him]

Just now, Amanuensis said:

When Lopen claimed he said he was scanned by three different players and two of them were Artists. This was after PK died so I asked him if he was one of them, and Lopen said PK wasn't, so there's another out here somewhere.

Right, my question is why you think that means that I have to be Forgotten if I'm an Artist?  The other Artist could be, or Sart could be trolling us with his role distributions, or any number of possibilities.  You don't contest that I'm an Artist, yet you do claim I'm either lying or got wrong information, and say that you think I must be an Elim because of this… that doesn't add up at all.

[Amanuensis he/him]

4 minutes ago, Jondesu said:

 

 

Right, my question is why you think that means that I have to be Forgotten if I'm an Artist?  The other Artist could be, or Sart could be trolling us with his role distributions, or any number of possibilities.  You don't contest that I'm an Artist, yet you do claim I'm either lying or got wrong information, and say that you think I must be an Elim because of this… that doesn't add up at all.

Ah, I understand. I'm counter accusing you because I know my alignment and that I used a Line of Warding last night. I don't know your alignment and you're claiming I used a Line of Vigor when I didn't. The logical conclusion from there is you're Forgotten. You knowing my role gives you credit to being an Artist, but not the rest of the information. And considering there's still 9 players left right now and the game is going, for you to be trying to lynch me this way means there's probably four of you, and that the least-active player (I'd guess Orlok) is a villager, and you're banking on no-one being able to refute your claim / that the villagers won't oppose it enough for your team to pull a hammer, if necessary, and win.

Edited April 26, 2017 by Amanuensis

[Jondesu he/him]

6 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Ah, I understand. I'm counter accusing you because I know my alignment and that I used a Line of Warding last night. I don't know your alignment and you're claiming I used a Line of Vigor when I didn't. The logical conclusion from there is you're Forgotten. You knowing my role gives you credit to being an Artist, but not the rest of the information. And considering there's still 9 players left right now and the game is going, for you to be trying to lynch me this way means there's probably four of you, and that the least-active player (I'd guess Orlok) is a villager, and you're banking on no-one being able to refute your claim / that the villagers won't oppose it enough for your team to pull a hammer, if necessary, and win.

Wow, you think I've got bigger cojones than I really do.  I wouldn't pull that, and I'd have had to plan it really fast to pull that off.  I literally saw the message from Sart in my GM PM, came to the thread, and posted that.  I'm not a Forgotten, and I'm not making anything up, so the only possibilities are that you're lying (planning the same, that no one can refute it) or that Sart made a mistake.  If Sart did (and I could hardly blame him, especially since I haven't yet GM'd a game but I know there's a lot to keep track of), then I'll retract my accusation and we'll move on to other evidence or arguments, but if there wasn't a mistake, I can't think of any conclusion that doesn't lead to you being Forgotten.

EDIT: Anyone else want to chime in? Aman and I are going to monopolize the conversation for a while, it seems, and I don't want anyone to feel shut out. 

Edited April 26, 2017 by Jondesu

[Amanuensis he/him]

1 minute ago, Jondesu said:

 

Wow, you think I've got bigger cahone's than I really do.  I wouldn't pull that, and I'd have had to plan it really fast to pull that off.  I literally saw the message from Sart in my GM PM, came to the thread, and posted that.  I'm not a Forgotten, and I'm not making anything up, so the only possibilities are that you're lying (planning the same, that no one can refute it) or that Sart made a mistake.  If Sart did (and I could hardly blame him, especially since I haven't yet GM'd a game but I know there's a lot to keep track of), then I'll retract my accusation and we'll move on to other evidence or arguments, but if there wasn't a mistake, I can't think of any conclusion that doesn't lead to you being Forgotten.

Guess we're at an impasse then. If anyone can corroborate either Jon's story or mine, please come forward. Otherwise it's going to be his word versus mine. I'm going to bed now, but when I get time tomorrow, I'm going to analyze everything Jon's said and done so far, to hopefully find evidence to credit that I'm telling the truth. It's been over a half hour since this has been brought up, so I'm sure if Sart made a mistake, he would have told Jon already. Goodnight everyone.