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Posted (edited)

these are the possibilities I'm thinking of right now

e!Ink, v!Ver

Ink votes down both coco and Ver (this could be misdirection but that feels like it would have been a risky move)

e!Ver, v!Ink, e!TJ:

Ver felt that TJ is cleared, because TJ was the only other person who knew Ver was prefect and the elims did not kill Ver. And they've continued to strongly reiterate that TJ is village. I don't think an elim Ver would do that for a village TJ

Drake has pushed both the lynch on coco and now Ink, so e!Ver could implicate e!Drake, though e/v is also possible. Honestly if true, it would have been very good teamwork on the elims' part, if both TJ and Drake are lying.

e!TJ, v!Ver, v!Ink

TJ also voted down every other prefect last cycle.

 

if Ver does flip elim, I think it'll narrow our pool of suspects quite a bit. and my reasons from last cycle still stand, even the one for coco :( :

Quote

of the remaining prefects:

  • Ink has been giving off vibes of pure innocence in the gryffindor PM lol but that's mostly based on tone rather than content, so I don't know if that means much
  • Ver has voted for a killed prefect in both cycles
    • If I'm counting correctly, Twinstorm and Fallen did also. Question mark on mippo since they forgot to vote this cycle, but they voted for Mist on C1
  • I see a lot of suspicion on coco, but to be honest, I'm not seeing why they're getting more suspicion than Ink or Ver (possible I haven't read closely enough, I've been skimming on and off for all day and am realizing I should have come on sooner...). I still think it's odd that e!coco hasn't gotten positive votes from fellow team members

 

edit: I think the strategy drake mentioned around only voting negative on one of the suspects is a good one, and makes it harder for the elims to hide/manipulate the vote. so my -3 will be going to grass and tbd on others

Edited by Frozen Mint
Posted
2 hours ago, |TJ| said:

BAH, I'm getting called away again -.- 

I'm sorry I won't be able to give time to ISOs.

But I have been thinking, I have also been wondering about my survival/mippo kill - one is obvious I am in PoE and I will always be an option for paranoia-exe in end-game. But what if Ink has been telling the truth about Protego? If they actually have Protego, then (I don't remember if they v-read me but I would like to believe that) I would have been one of the top choices to Protect and they went for someone that is not likely to be Protego'ed. In this case, we are in a bizzarrely unlucky world where Verdance's Obliviate won the toss against Coco's Obliviate.

This is a good point. I don't think it's any more likely than them not killing you to keep the pool wide or to make you seem suspicious though

Posted (edited)

Cycle Five: The Phoenix 

The phoenix screeched and shuffled on its perch. 
Hagrid stood in his hut, hunched over a basin, scrubbing red stains from his fingertips. “Never seen him so agitated.”
At the table, Dumbledore was counting coins. “Here’s thirty Sickles for a job well done.”

“You don’t usually pay me. You feeling alright, Mr. Dumbledore?”
“That’s right, you’re the loyal hound. You’d do anything for this school.”
“I’d do anything for you, prolly.”
“Then do me a favor and stab the man about to walk through that door.”

Fawkes squawked irritably. 
“I beg yer pardon?”
Dumbledore raised his wand. It was a crimson stick that bent strangely in the middle. “Imperio.

· · ─ ·✶· ─ · ·

The Man from the Ministry of Magic banged on Hagrid’s door. “You can’t hide from me, Headmaster!”
He held the Drake Fairy by the collar, and tightened his grip as she tried to slip away. Inside, Fawkes was crowing like a banshee. 
“I caught this one using unregistered Artefacts! She doesn’t even have the Trace. Let me-”

Hagrid opened the door and thrust a kitchen knife. 
The Man ducked. “Expelliowwww!”
The Drake Fairy stomped on his toe and pulled away. With a mirthful leap, she jumped out of the realm. 
Hagrid slashed again, cutting The Man’s ear off completely. 
Immobulus!” Bleeding heavily, he tackled the brute, falling into the hut. 
There was no one else inside. 

· · ─ ·✶· ─ · ·

Forest liked the forest. He’d been ecstatic when the Headmaster hand-selected him for this Important Mission. 
He consulted the map, squinting in the dim light of sunset. “I swear the route keeps changing.”
He turned left, then left again, and suddenly arrived.

The cave entrance was ringed by stalactites that jutted down like teeth. 
“Hello?-oh-oh-oh.”
As he crept through the darkness, his foot hit something soft. A fluffy creature lay on the floor. Forest felt wool, matted by a sticky liquid.

An enormous presence stepped in front of the cave entrance, nearly sealing it entirely. It sniffed loudly. 

A flicker of flame lit up the cave. 

Expecto Patronum!” A small voice from outside made the dragon turn around. 

Orry stood alone, white light spilling from his wand and slowly collecting into the shape of a bear. 

The dragon grabbed Orry in its claws and leapt skyward. Forest heard his screams as he was dropped a hundred feet. 

Twice, for good measure. 
 

· · ─ ·✶· ─ · ·

Cycle Five has begun! This Cycle ends on Sunday April 5th at 20:00 EST. 

Votes:

Quote
Players 1st (+3) 2nd (+2) 3rd (+1) 3rd (-1) 2nd (-2) 1st (-3)
Aman/Drake TJ Miss Fallen Grass Wahr Unknown Medallion Ink
Grass NONE TJ NONE NONE Aman/Drake Ink
Hopper NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Wahr TJ Ink NONE NONE Aman/Drake Grass
TwinStorm NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Ink NONE TJ NONE Aman/Drake Hopper Grass
TJ NONE NONE NONE Wahr Unknown Medallion Grass
Miss Fallen NONE TwinStorm Emperor Comatose/Aet Ink Frozen Mint NONE
Emperor Comatose Aman/Drake NONE NONE Grass TJ Ink
Unknown Medallion NONE Aman/Drake NONE NONE NONE Ink
Frozen Mint NONE Ink NONE Aman/Drake NONE Grass

Outcomes: 

Quote
Outcome Player Votes
Extra Credit TJ 3
Owl Mail TwinStorm 2
Friendship Emp/Aet 1
  Miss Fallen 0
NKed Aman/Drake -1
  Hopper -2
  Wahr -2
  Frozen Mint -2
Homework Unknown Med -4
Detention Ink -9
Expelled Grass/Ver -13

Drake/Aman was NKed! They were a Loyal Student. 

Grass/Ver was exed! They were a Loyal Student. 

Students:

Spoiler

Students:

1. @Through the Living Mist as Trance, secretly a squib.  Loyal Student. 

2. @DrakeMarshall for @Amanuensis Drake Fairy.  Loyal Student. 

3. @Through The Living Grass as Orpheus ‘Ory’ Grey the 5th year. Terrible liar, loyal to a fault.  Loyal Student. 

4. @coco.pudding as Vera Coran, the daughter of Someone Important in the Ministry of MagicLoyal Student. 

5. @Through the Living Hopper as Jarry Motter, a high-achieving, even higher-dueling 6th year.

6. @Araris Valerian as Tom Bombadil Donuts, or TBD for short, who has a mysterious lineage. Loyal Student. 

7. @Through the living Wahr as Leokadius Seydlitz, a cape-wearing German Pureblood whose family got him accepted at Hogwarts.

8. @TwinStorm as Raese Thean, a musically-inclined, slightly oblivious half-blood who has always dreamed of Hogwarts and Quidditch.

9. @Through the Living Ink as Forest Randane, an overenthusiatic 5th year with curly brown hair. 

10. @Doc12 as Azalea, who has the grace and smile of someone who bad things have never happened to ever. Loyal Student. 

11. @mippo as SoxLoyal Student. 

12. @Qianweilian as Leonidas, a sixth year enamored with wizard history and the art of combat. Loyal Student. 

13. @|TJ| as Ceadach O'Neall, the fourth year Quidditch Keeper. 

14. @Miss Fallen as Jane Norie, a bored 7th year with a green thumb. 

15. @Aeternum for Emperor Comatose. 

16. @The Unknown Medallion as Siannain O'hAodhes (Shannon O'Hughes), a seventh year star Quidditch beater who has yet to learn a single spell. 

17. @Frozen Mint as Pali, a 6th year who loves a good duel and is too impulsive for her own good.

 

Edited by Archer
  • Archer changed the title to Mid-Range 76: Or Worse, Expelled!: A Harry Potter Mafia Game
Posted

oh man

I was gone all day due to outside circumstances, completely forgot abt the cycle ending

ill be back to do some analyzing maybe tonight/def tmrw

I feel like we have enough to solve

Posted

I'm reading through C1 right now. Even if we hopefully can solve tonight, I feel really bad about how this game turned out, so hopefully I can at least contribute something between conference sessions tomorrow. Again, sorry that I was inactive, I do regret it.

Posted (edited)

Oh wow. That's the two main people I trusted dead in one night. I did not expect to survive that. 

There are nine players left. If there are three Elims, we have two cycles minimum left; if there are four, this could be the last one. 

Ed1t: I also won't be massively online this weekend, which I wasn't expecting. I'll turn up when I can!

Ed2t: I didn't cast Protego, so we do still have that left, provided I can work out who might be targeted. I probably can't, so will likely cast it on a random person and hope they're not an Elim. I was going to cast it on Ver last cycle but cancelled as he seemed more likely to be exed than killed so it would have been wasted; I regret not switching to Drake instead. *despairs* 

Edited by Through the Living Ink
Spag and then more stuff to say and then yet more stuff to say
Posted
6 hours ago, Through the Living Ink said:

Ed2t: I didn't cast Protego, so we do still have that left, provided I can work out who might be targeted. I probably can't, so will likely cast it on a random person and hope they're not an Elim. I was going to cast it on Ver last cycle but cancelled as he seemed more likely to be exed than killed so it would have been wasted; I regret not switching to Drake instead. *despairs* 

Yeah, it has to be Ink. I'm sorry but I do not believe a villager holds Protego for SO long. It was quite obvious that the kill was either going to be me or Drake last cycle. I had myself covered because everyone knew I had the Extra Credit. I don't believe a villager holds the Protego last cycle. 

All of us should vote Ink here. Assuming it is 5-4 now, we can get Ink to -15. The three non-Ink elims can positive vote Ink, but it still gets us to Ink -6. 

(-3) Ink: TJ (-3) 

Posted

both the villagers warned me via owl mail to vote Ink, as the last choice for prefect, besides TJ, and I trust them enough, so Ink

cycles with flips

C1

Spoiler

 

Players 1st (+3) 2nd (+2) 3rd (+1) 3rd (-1) 2nd (-2) 1st (-3)
Mist Doc12 Grass Qianweilian Coco Aman Araris
Aman Araris Unknown Medallion Wahr Hopper Coco Doc12
Grass Mist Doc12 Miss Fallen Coco Araris Aman
Coco Qianweilian Aman Doc12 Hopper Araris NONE
Hopper NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Araris TJ Qianweilian Aman Unknown Medallion Wahr Coco
Wahr NONE NONE Unknown Medallion Doc12 TwinStorm Araris
TwinStorm Doc12 Mist Grass Aman Unknown Medallion Wahr
Ink Wahr Frozen Mint Aman Hopper NONE Araris
Doc12 Mist Aman TJ Coco Unknown Medallion Hopper
Mippo TJ Mist Aman Wahr Ink Hopper
Qianweilian Mist Doc12 Unknown Medallion Coco Wahr Aman
TJ NONE Mist Mippo Araris Hopper NONE
Miss Fallen NONE Doc12 Mist Ink Unknown Medallion NONE
Emperor Comatose NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Unknown Medallion NONE NONE NONE Doc12 Araris Aman
Frozen Mint Miss Fallen Mist Doc12 Aman Coco NONE

just based on C1, I see a pretty clear team forming of {ink, TUM, Wahr} with a questionable Hopper

C2:

Spoiler
Players 1st (+3) 2nd (+2) 3rd (+1) 3rd (-1) 2nd (-2) 1st (-3)
Aman TJ Ink Hopper Miss Fallen Qianweilian Frozen Mint
Grass NONE TJ Doc12 Wahr Coco NONE
Coco Doc12 Miss Fallen Aman Grass TJ NONE
Hopper NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Wahr NONE Unknown Medallion TJ Coco Qianweilian NONE
TwinStorm Doc12 Aman TJ Hopper Qianweilian Unknown Medallion
Ink NONE Grass NONE Aman NONE NONE
Doc12 TJ Wahr Coco Ink Miss Fallen Frozen Mint
Mippo NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Qianweilian Unknown Medallion Doc12 Emperor Comatose Aman Hopper Grass
TJ Mippo Aman Unknown Medallion Frozen Mint Ink Coco
Miss Fallen Doc12 Mippo Frozen Mint Grass Coco Aman
Emperor Comatose Doc12 Miss Fallen NONE NONE Coco Aman
Unknown Medallion NONE NONE NONE Aman NONE Frozen Mint
Frozen Mint Aman Coco Ink Doc12 Unknown Medallion Qianweilian

I can also see Mint or Miss being elim, but my suspicions above still hold firm

C3

Spoiler
Aman/Drake TJ Miss Fallen Frozen Mint NONE Unknown Medallion Coco
Grass NONE TJ TwinStorm Ink Unknown Medallion Coco
Coco Wahr Unknown Medallion Miss Fallen Aman/Drake TJ Ink
Hopper NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Wahr NONE TJ Aman/Drake Hopper Grass/Ver Coco
TwinStorm Aet/Emperor Comatose Grass/Ver Wahr Aman/Drake Coco
Unknown Medallion
Ink NONE NONE Aman/Drake Hopper Grass/Ver Coco
Mippo NONE NONE TJ Hopper Coco Ink
TJ Unknown Medallion Aman/Drake Mippo Grass/Ver Ink Coco
Miss Fallen Ink TJ Frozen Mint Aman/Drake Coco Grass/Ver
Aet/Emperor Comatose NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Unknown Medallion Aman NONE NONE TJ Ink Coco
Frozen Mint TJ Aman/Drake Coco Ink Miss Fallen Grass/Ver

again patterns hold up, tho at this point, these cycles aren't nearly as valuable as C1/C2

C4

Spoiler
Players 1st (+3) 2nd (+2) 3rd (+1) 3rd (-1) 2nd (-2) 1st (-3)
Aman/Drake TJ Miss Fallen Grass Wahr Unknown Medallion Ink
Grass NONE TJ NONE NONE Aman/Drake Ink
Hopper NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Wahr TJ Ink NONE NONE Aman/Drake Grass
TwinStorm NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Ink NONE TJ NONE Aman/Drake Hopper Grass
TJ NONE NONE NONE Wahr Unknown Medallion Grass
Miss Fallen NONE TwinStorm Emperor Comatose/Aet Ink Frozen Mint NONE
Emperor Comatose Aman/Drake NONE NONE Grass TJ Ink
Unknown Medallion NONE Aman/Drake NONE NONE NONE Ink
Frozen Mint NONE Ink NONE Aman/Drake NONE Grass

one interesting fact seems to reveal itself in the chaos

There is no Cycle where Wahr did not vote negatively for at least two villagers.

Ink has voted negatively for at least 1 villager every cycle, but thats not too alignment indicative 

TUM, with the exception of C5, has voted negatively for at least 1 villager each cycle, voting 3 villagers negatively in C1

again not too AI but still weird

I'm holding firm to a team of {Ink, Wahr, TUM} but other suspects include {TJ (based purely on votes), Mint, Miss}

overall reads-wise

Spoiler

Elim: Ink, Wahr, TUM, Mint, Miss

Neutral, e!leaning: TJ, Hopper

Neutral: Aet

oh yikes

I don't think anyones village 😅

its that stage of the game folks

Posted (edited)

Here's my reasoning. There are (probably) 3 elims in <Wahr, Twin, Ink, TJ, Miss Fallen, Aet, TUM, Mint>. Out of all of those, I'm convinced TJ is village, mainly from the Ravenclaw PM, but also just in general.

<Wahr, Twin, Ink, Miss Fallen, Aet, TUM, Mint>. I trust Twin, because of pretty good analysis.

<Wahr, Ink, Miss Fallen, Aet, TUM, Mint>. I'm honestly not sure about Ink, because they could have just forgotten to use Protego (I feel that!).

TUM is probably my -2 vote, but I'll see where logic gets me. I think that with there being 6 votes in this game, it's easier for a villager to be voted by elims. Twin has a point with Wahr, who will be my negative 3.

Miss Fallen. Hmmmm. Their posts have gotten slightly less helpful as time went on, could show pressure and difficulty finding village things to say.

Here's what I think. An elim team of <TUM, Wahr, and Miss Fallen>. If there are four, Ink.

My vote is +3 TJ, +2 Twin, -1 Miss Fallen, -2 TUM, -3 Wahr.

Submitting now so I don't forget...

Edited by Through the Living Hopper
Posted
3 minutes ago, Through the Living Hopper said:

Here's my reasoning. There are (probably) 3 elims in <Wahr, Twin, Ink, TJ, Miss Fallen, Aet, TUM, Mint>. Out of all of those, I'm convinced TJ is village, mainly from the Ravenclaw PM, but also just in general.

<Wahr, Twin, Ink, Miss Fallen, Aet, TUM, Mint>. I trust Twin, because of pretty good analysis.

<Wahr, Ink, Miss Fallen, Aet, TUM, Mint>. I'm honestly not sure about Ink, because they could have just forgotten to use Protego (I feel that!).

TUM is probably my -2 vote, but I'll see where logic gets me. I think that with there being 6 votes in this game, it's easier for a villager to be voted by elims. Twin has a point with Wahr, who will be my negative 3.

Miss Fallen. Hmmmm. Their posts have gotten slightly less helpful as time went on, could show pressure and difficulty finding village things to say.

Here's what I think. An elim team of <TUM, Wahr, and Miss Fallen>. If there are four, Ink.

My vote is +3 TJ, +2 Twin, -1 Miss Fallen, -2 TUM, -3 Wahr.

Submitting now so I don't forget...

ooh Hopper anaylsis

first time for everything :P jk

the reason people are voting Ink is cuz shes the most sus prefect left since a prefect cast obliviate (caused Doc to forget a spell) when Doc said he cast protego on himself

Posted (edited)

We should be careful of voting -2 and -1s because the elims could snipe someone. I'd only vote a -3 here.

Edit:

Re: elim numbers, since this is a 17 player game, it should be 4 elims because that's fairly standard, which means we need to vote right today most likely, and we need to avoid letting the elims know who to snipe. Unless we have a perfect PoE (unlikely), it's better to avoid -1 and -2 votes to guarantee that town is choosing the exe, and the elims cannot snipe any misvotes.

Edited by Aeternum
Posted
7 hours ago, TwinStorm said:

both the villagers warned me via owl mail to vote Ink, as the last choice for prefect, besides TJ, and I trust them enough, so Ink

cycles with flips

C1

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Players 1st (+3) 2nd (+2) 3rd (+1) 3rd (-1) 2nd (-2) 1st (-3)
Mist Doc12 Grass Qianweilian Coco Aman Araris
Aman Araris Unknown Medallion Wahr Hopper Coco Doc12
Grass Mist Doc12 Miss Fallen Coco Araris Aman
Coco Qianweilian Aman Doc12 Hopper Araris NONE
Hopper NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Araris TJ Qianweilian Aman Unknown Medallion Wahr Coco
Wahr NONE NONE Unknown Medallion Doc12 TwinStorm Araris
TwinStorm Doc12 Mist Grass Aman Unknown Medallion Wahr
Ink Wahr Frozen Mint Aman Hopper NONE Araris
Doc12 Mist Aman TJ Coco Unknown Medallion Hopper
Mippo TJ Mist Aman Wahr Ink Hopper
Qianweilian Mist Doc12 Unknown Medallion Coco Wahr Aman
TJ NONE Mist Mippo Araris Hopper NONE
Miss Fallen NONE Doc12 Mist Ink Unknown Medallion NONE
Emperor Comatose NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Unknown Medallion NONE NONE NONE Doc12 Araris Aman
Frozen Mint Miss Fallen Mist Doc12 Aman Coco NONE

just based on C1, I see a pretty clear team forming of {ink, TUM, Wahr} with a questionable Hopper

C2:

  Reveal hidden contents
  Reveal hidden contents
Players 1st (+3) 2nd (+2) 3rd (+1) 3rd (-1) 2nd (-2) 1st (-3)
Aman TJ Ink Hopper Miss Fallen Qianweilian Frozen Mint
Grass NONE TJ Doc12 Wahr Coco NONE
Coco Doc12 Miss Fallen Aman Grass TJ NONE
Hopper NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Wahr NONE Unknown Medallion TJ Coco Qianweilian NONE
TwinStorm Doc12 Aman TJ Hopper Qianweilian Unknown Medallion
Ink NONE Grass NONE Aman NONE NONE
Doc12 TJ Wahr Coco Ink Miss Fallen Frozen Mint
Mippo NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Qianweilian Unknown Medallion Doc12 Emperor Comatose Aman Hopper Grass
TJ Mippo Aman Unknown Medallion Frozen Mint Ink Coco
Miss Fallen Doc12 Mippo Frozen Mint Grass Coco Aman
Emperor Comatose Doc12 Miss Fallen NONE NONE Coco Aman
Unknown Medallion NONE NONE NONE Aman NONE Frozen Mint
Frozen Mint Aman Coco Ink Doc12 Unknown Medallion Qianweilian

I can also see Mint or Miss being elim, but my suspicions above still hold firm

C3

  Reveal hidden contents
Aman/Drake TJ Miss Fallen Frozen Mint NONE Unknown Medallion Coco
Grass NONE TJ TwinStorm Ink Unknown Medallion Coco
Coco Wahr Unknown Medallion Miss Fallen Aman/Drake TJ Ink
Hopper NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Wahr NONE TJ Aman/Drake Hopper Grass/Ver Coco
TwinStorm Aet/Emperor Comatose Grass/Ver Wahr Aman/Drake Coco
Unknown Medallion
Ink NONE NONE Aman/Drake Hopper Grass/Ver Coco
Mippo NONE NONE TJ Hopper Coco Ink
TJ Unknown Medallion Aman/Drake Mippo Grass/Ver Ink Coco
Miss Fallen Ink TJ Frozen Mint Aman/Drake Coco Grass/Ver
Aet/Emperor Comatose NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Unknown Medallion Aman NONE NONE TJ Ink Coco
Frozen Mint TJ Aman/Drake Coco Ink Miss Fallen Grass/Ver

again patterns hold up, tho at this point, these cycles aren't nearly as valuable as C1/C2

C4

  Reveal hidden contents
Players 1st (+3) 2nd (+2) 3rd (+1) 3rd (-1) 2nd (-2) 1st (-3)
Aman/Drake TJ Miss Fallen Grass Wahr Unknown Medallion Ink
Grass NONE TJ NONE NONE Aman/Drake Ink
Hopper NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Wahr TJ Ink NONE NONE Aman/Drake Grass
TwinStorm NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Ink NONE TJ NONE Aman/Drake Hopper Grass
TJ NONE NONE NONE Wahr Unknown Medallion Grass
Miss Fallen NONE TwinStorm Emperor Comatose/Aet Ink Frozen Mint NONE
Emperor Comatose Aman/Drake NONE NONE Grass TJ Ink
Unknown Medallion NONE Aman/Drake NONE NONE NONE Ink
Frozen Mint NONE Ink NONE Aman/Drake NONE Grass

one interesting fact seems to reveal itself in the chaos

There is no Cycle where Wahr did not vote negatively for at least two villagers.

Ink has voted negatively for at least 1 villager every cycle, but thats not too alignment indicative 

TUM, with the exception of C5, has voted negatively for at least 1 villager each cycle, voting 3 villagers negatively in C1

again not too AI but still weird

I'm holding firm to a team of {Ink, Wahr, TUM} but other suspects include {TJ (based purely on votes), Mint, Miss}

overall reads-wise

  Hide contents

Elim: Ink, Wahr, TUM, Mint, Miss

Neutral, e!leaning: TJ, Hopper

Neutral: Aet

oh yikes

I don't think anyones village 😅

its that stage of the game folks

So you think voting villagers is e!indicative (sure, you say it's NAI bit that's not what your comments and reads say), man do I have something to tell you about this game :P Especially when mine are basically statistically expected

I think Wahr and Mint are pretty clear teammates, what with giving Ink the +2s that saved them this cycle 

I'd probably guess a low active as the fourth to explain why they didn't also upvote Ink

7 hours ago, Through the Living Hopper said:

Here's my reasoning. There are (probably) 3 elims in <Wahr, Twin, Ink, TJ, Miss Fallen, Aet, TUM, Mint>. Out of all of those, I'm convinced TJ is village, mainly from the Ravenclaw PM, but also just in general.

<Wahr, Twin, Ink, Miss Fallen, Aet, TUM, Mint>. I trust Twin, because of pretty good analysis.

<Wahr, Ink, Miss Fallen, Aet, TUM, Mint>. I'm honestly not sure about Ink, because they could have just forgotten to use Protego (I feel that!).

TUM is probably my -2 vote, but I'll see where logic gets me. I think that with there being 6 votes in this game, it's easier for a villager to be voted by elims. Twin has a point with Wahr, who will be my negative 3.

Miss Fallen. Hmmmm. Their posts have gotten slightly less helpful as time went on, could show pressure and difficulty finding village things to say.

Here's what I think. An elim team of <TUM, Wahr, and Miss Fallen>. If there are four, Ink.

My vote is +3 TJ, +2 Twin, -1 Miss Fallen, -2 TUM, -3 Wahr.

Submitting now so I don't forget...

What even is this

We're voting Prefects because a prefect has to be elim. There's two left and one of is both widely village read and brought this PoE to our attention 

We have to vote an elim today, and a prefect (Ink) is by far our best shot

2 hours ago, TwinStorm said:

soo is that it?

have I just solved it?

or is there gonna be any actual pushback?

@Through the Living Ink @Through the living Wahr @The Unknown Medallion

Uhhh

You wrong?

Except I kinda agree, just for different seasons. I can't excuse Mint giving their only plus to Ink. At least Wahr gave their +3 to TJ, but the fact that they're both at 2 to seem less obvious is incredibly suspicious to me

Posted
8 hours ago, TwinStorm said:

soo is that it?

have I just solved it?

or is there gonna be any actual pushback?

@Through the Living Ink @Through the living Wahr @The Unknown Medallion

I mean, I have very little to say in my defence. I didn't Obliviate Doc, but no one believes me in that regard and I can't prove it, so for all purposes I might as well have done.

Posted
13 hours ago, The Unknown Medallion said:

So you think voting villagers is e!indicative (sure, you say it's NAI bit that's not what your comments and reads say), man do I have something to tell you about this game :P Especially when mine are basically statistically expected

I think Wahr and Mint are pretty clear teammates, what with giving Ink the +2s that saved them this cycle 

I'd probably guess a low active as the fourth to explain why they didn't also upvote Ink

What even is this

We're voting Prefects because a prefect has to be elim. There's two left and one of is both widely village read and brought this PoE to our attention 

We have to vote an elim today, and a prefect (Ink) is by far our best shot

Uhhh

You wrong?

Except I kinda agree, just for different seasons. I can't excuse Mint giving their only plus to Ink. At least Wahr gave their +3 to TJ, but the fact that they're both at 2 to seem less obvious is incredibly suspicious to me

ok, I can agree that votes are not alignment indicative, but the fact remains, the fact that Wahr is the only player to consistently voted for villagers, as well as who he voted for, is pretty sus

7 hours ago, Through the living Wahr said:

No, you haven't because yeah Ink is probably elim but I am definitely not. Not sure about TUM though

do you have anything to justify your votes beyond rly poor anaylsis then?

Posted

I think your Analysis is a bit skewed.

With three down votes it is very likely two downvote multiple villagers. Also you are only accusing me because I have downvoted mostly Players that have by now been fliped as villagers. I would argue that there a lot more people who have consistently downvoted villagers, they just havent flipped.

So your accusation is soley based on the fact that most of my downvotes flipped where as others didnt? If other people were flipped you could be revealed to have consistently downvoting at least two villagers.

I would say that isnt a very strong argument.

Posted
Just now, Through the living Wahr said:

I think your Analysis is a bit skewed.

With three down votes it is very likely two downvote multiple villagers. Also you are only accusing me because I have downvoted mostly Players that have by now been fliped as villagers. I would argue that there a lot more people who have consistently downvoted villagers, they just havent flipped.

So your accusation is soley based on the fact that most of my downvotes flipped where as others didnt? If other people were flipped you could be revealed to have consistently downvoting at least two villagers.

I would say that isnt a very strong argument.

yeah I can agree that

part of solving is with what we have, which isn't perfect data, but has to do

C1 with flips and the potential elim team

Spoiler
Players 1st (+3) 2nd (+2) 3rd (+1) 3rd (-1) 2nd (-2) 1st (-3)
Mist Doc12 Grass Qianweilian Coco Aman Araris
Aman Araris Unknown Medallion Wahr Hopper Coco Doc12
Grass Mist Doc12 Miss Fallen Coco Araris Aman
Coco Qianweilian Aman Doc12 Hopper Araris NONE
Hopper NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Araris TJ Qianweilian Aman Unknown Medallion Wahr Coco
Wahr NONE NONE Unknown Medallion Doc12 TwinStorm Araris
TwinStorm Doc12 Mist Grass Aman Unknown Medallion Wahr
Ink Wahr Frozen Mint Aman Hopper NONE Araris
Doc12 Mist Aman TJ Coco Unknown Medallion Hopper
Mippo TJ Mist Aman Wahr Ink Hopper
Qianweilian Mist Doc12 Unknown Medallion Coco Wahr Aman
TJ NONE Mist Mippo Araris Hopper NONE
Miss Fallen NONE Doc12 Mist Ink Unknown Medallion NONE
Emperor Comatose NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Unknown Medallion NONE NONE NONE Doc12 Araris Aman
Frozen Mint Miss Fallen Mist Doc12 Aman Coco NONE

this makes sense

the elims subtly supporting each other, no major contradictions

further cycles coming soon

Posted

[Wahr, Twin, Ink, Hopper, Miss Fallen, Aet, TUM, Mint]

I'm assuming 4 elims because I do agree that the positive votes on Ink by Wahr and Mint are quite telling and they do not do this if they were heading into this cycle 6-3.

Assuming Wahr, Ink and Mint are evil -> [Twin, Hopper, Miss Fallen, Aet, TUM]

I think I can only reduce the PoE by removing Twin as he is quite villager-y today. The last elim could by any of the other 4. 

Posted (edited)

Ministry of Magic Building, Level Nine 

“I wonder how many orbs there are.”
The troupe of Death Eater students skulked through the Hall of Prophecy. Their leader shushed them. “Pay attention to the labels. We need the one by Sybill Trelawney.”

Pali was pretending to fence with her wand. “I wanted to fight someone. Why’s it so empty?”
“The Ministry is busy shutting down Hogwarts. The messages you sent while polyjuiced as Dumbledore worked better than expected.”

Sitting atop the leader’s head, the Sorting Hat harrumphed. 
Leokadius flicked its nose. “Why’d I have to steal this thing, anyway?”
“Because you let it read too much of your mind.”

Ahead of them, a boy with a red prefect badge waved them over. “Found it!”
“Don’t touch that, Forest!” The student in the Sorting Hat rushed to the shelf. “Only those the prophecy’s about can touch the orb.”
“Then how we gonna steal it?”
“Our Master will aid us.” The leader produced Ravenclaw's Diadem. “Part of him, anyway.”

He used the diadem to gently push the orb off of its pedestal. The mist inside swirled angrily. 

"The one with the power to vanquish the Dark Lord approaches…

 

The cycle is now closed. 
 

Edited by Archer
Posted
On 4/5/2026 at 6:59 PM, Archer said:

Ministry of Magic Building, Level Nine 

“I wonder how many orbs there are.”
The troupe of Death Eater students skulked through the Hall of Prophecy. Their leader shushed them. “Pay attention to the labels. We need the one by Sybill Trelawney.”

Pali was pretending to fence with her wand. “I wanted to fight someone. Why’s it so empty?”
“The Ministry is busy shutting down Hogwarts. The messages you sent while polyjuiced as Dumbledore worked better than expected.”

Sitting atop the leader’s head, the Sorting Hat harrumphed. 
Leokadius flicked its nose. “Why’d I have to steal this thing, anyway?”
“Because you let it read too much of your mind.”

Ahead of them, a boy with a red prefect badge waved them over. “Found it!”
“Don’t touch that, Forest!” The student in the Sorting Hat rushed to the shelf. “Only those the prophecy’s about can touch the orb.”
“Then how we gonna steal it?”
“Our Master will aid us.” The leader produced Ravenclaw's Diadem. “Part of him, anyway.”

He used the diadem to gently push the orb off of its pedestal. The mist inside swirled angrily. 

"The one with the power to vanquish the Dark Lord approaches…

 

The cycle is now closed. 
 

What does this mean for HP canon?

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