Aeternum Posted April 2 Posted April 2 30 minutes ago, Verdance said: So. I suck at this game, cause if Coco was village I don’t know who isn’t. I am back to useless. Eh you don't suck, mafia is just a hard game sometimes and that's ok . We should still have another misexe before we lose regardless. Looking at the votes, I'm curious why @TwinStorm ended up voting me as +3?
DrakeMarshall he/him Posted April 2 Posted April 2 42 minutes ago, ___ said: Sox smacks the fairy on the head and speeds away on his broom "Ow! Wow, rude. Come back here you!" The Drake Fairy took to the air, imitating the way everyone else was riding. Finally. This was proper flying. She laughed as the wind streamed through her hair. She did a barrel roll just because. She wasn't sure what the goal of this game was, but apparently smacking people was allowed. That seemed like a good start. She would Get Even with her Nemesis. She might also smack other members of the opposing side, if there was time. She inferred there were teams, based on the colors of different people's robes. Someone threw a red ball at her. She caught it instinctively. "Watch where you're throwing things!" she complained, then hurled it at Sox as hard as she could. It missed, flying through a nearby hoop instead. She cursed her poor aim. The audience must've respected the effort, though, because they still applauded. Very nice of them. 2
TwinStorm He/Him Posted April 2 Posted April 2 (edited) 30 minutes ago, Aeternum said: Eh you don't suck, mafia is just a hard game sometimes and that's ok . We should still have another misexe before we lose regardless. Looking at the votes, I'm curious why @TwinStorm ended up voting me as +3? easy, I like your analysis, and its less so abt the reward, and more abt making sure you don't get exed @DrakeMarshall you receive owl mail? Edited April 2 by TwinStorm
DrakeMarshall he/him Posted April 2 Posted April 2 (edited) 1 hour ago, Archer said: Coco was exed! They were a Loyal Student. Mippo was NKed! They were a Loyal Student. honestly quite confused by this well I'm 0 for 2 when it comes to reading Coco rip anyways I'd say the elims mixing up their kill doctrine is surprising but it's not really anyways, I bear messages from the dead Mippo's message reads like a legacy of reads. Mippo says only Wahr, Ink, and Verdant were drawing any attention to them. Reading between the lines, I assume this is implying one of those people might've killed them, though Mippo states they think Verdant seems more trustworthy. Mippo also village reads TJ. Mippo also wanted you all to know that Drake is incredibly handsome and also wise. Coco would like to inform us that she was not an elim She also thinks we should continue executing in the prefect pool, which I agree with. She thinks Ink should be voted out next, which I mostly agree with. She also thinks my jokes about the identity of the Gryffindor Prefect were extremely tasteful and funny. That's everything the dead have to say, relayed completely truthfully and honestly. I want to expel another Prefect suspect today. Someone in <Ink, TJ, Verdant> must be evil. Ink seems like the obvious choice but at this point I feel shaken enough that I'm also willing to consider evil TJ I also lowkey still think TUM is evil, bro has that sorta energy rn edit: actually, the odds of hitting an elim in the Prefect suspect pool are barely better than the odds of hitting an elim just from voting any random player at this point, if we assume 4 elims. So maybe it isn't as imperative to expel Prefects. I still want to resolve this, though. Edited April 2 by DrakeMarshall
The Unknown Medallion he/him Posted April 2 Posted April 2 9 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said: The truth is, I'm actually the Prefect. Ink has been covering for me/Aman to throw off the elims. I've continued to be misleading about the identity of the Prefect because I usually don't respond well to getting questioned immediately on subbing into a game But the truth must come out at this point. I will prove it by using Stupefy on TJ today. Stupefy is probably the best spell for the village if you ask me. Also, I've rethought some things and I now think the most likely explanation is TJ obliviated Doc and then truthfully reported that one of the Prefects obliviated Doc. Sorry for the confusion. ʎɐp s,looɟ lıɹdɐ ʎddɐɥ I actually hate this post. I know why Drake made it and the claim, but it still reads bad tonally 8 hours ago, ___ said: TO EVERYONE IN THIS GAME: MY DISPLAY NAME IS NOW ___ Apologies for the inconvenience I know you're dead now, but to me, if you switch your name and pfp, it's essentially the same as getting a pinch-hitter 16 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said: honestly quite confused by this well I'm 0 for 2 when it comes to reading Coco rip anyways I'd say the elims mixing up their kill doctrine is surprising but it's not really anyways, I bear messages from the dead Mippo's message reads like a legacy of reads. Mippo says only Wahr, Ink, and Verdant were drawing any attention to them. Reading between the lines, I assume this is implying one of those people might've killed them, though Mippo states they think Verdant seems more trustworthy. Mippo also village reads TJ. Mippo also wanted you all to know that Drake is incredibly handsome and also wise. Coco would like to inform us that she was not an elim She also thinks we should continue executing in the prefect pool, which I agree with. She thinks Ink should be voted out next, which I mostly agree with. She also thinks my jokes about the identity of the Gryffindor Prefect were extremely tasteful and funny. That's everything the dead have to say, relayed completely truthfully and honestly. I want to expel another Prefect suspect today. Someone in <Ink, TJ, Verdant> must be evil. Ink seems like the obvious choice but at this point I feel shaken enough that I'm also willing to consider evil TJ I also lowkey still think TUM is evil, bro has that sorta energy rn edit: actually, the odds of hitting an elim in the Prefect suspect pool are barely better than the odds of hitting an elim just from voting any random player at this point, if we assume 4 elims. So maybe it isn't as imperative to expel Prefects. I still want to resolve this, though. I think the elims switching up their kill doctrine is in response to the prefect pool containing an elim, as well the highest voted player being more obfuscated. I don't like that you're considering e!TJ here. Doc didn't tell us (Slytherin) that he was protegoing himself, so there was no accountability. I suppose he could have lied to e!TJ about it, but that feels convoluted.
DrakeMarshall he/him Posted April 2 Posted April 2 1 minute ago, The Unknown Medallion said: I actually hate this post. I know why Drake made it and the claim, but it still reads bad tonally you read bad tonally smh 2 minutes ago, The Unknown Medallion said: I don't like that you're considering e!TJ here. Doc didn't tell us (Slytherin) that he was protegoing himself, so there was no accountability. I suppose he could have lied to e!TJ about it, but that feels convoluted. Um? what? elim TJ implies that Doc probably never used protego on himself and TJ just made that up. Or maybe TJ really did obliviate Doc. Either way none of that has anything to do with Doc lying. I don't think Doc is lying and I don't think anybody else does either.
The Unknown Medallion he/him Posted April 2 Posted April 2 3 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said: you read bad tonally smh Um? what? elim TJ implies that Doc probably never used protego on himself and TJ just made that up. Or maybe TJ really did obliviate Doc. Either way none of that has anything to do with Doc lying. I don't think Doc is lying and I don't think anybody else does either. Rude. You have one low active elim game then no one let's you chill Why would e!TJ unnecessarily create a PoE that includes him? Tbf, I don't like that he didn't die today, but I find the PoE argument compelling
DrakeMarshall he/him Posted April 2 Posted April 2 (edited) 35 minutes ago, The Unknown Medallion said: Why would e!TJ unnecessarily create a PoE that includes him? I don't know, but all the members of this PoE are all gung-ho about killing the others, so "the elims are not okay with existing in a PoE" doesn't seem as true anymore edit: TUM, sorry if I’m pressing too hard, but who do you think the evil Prefect is? You’re spending a lot of words talking about adjacent issues, but you don’t feel that interested in solving the problem that actually matters. Edited April 2 by DrakeMarshall 1
Miss Fallen she/her Posted April 2 Posted April 2 Kay so I also need to revise my entire worldview since Coco is revealed as village. Coco you were right(C3), the best option now is to reconsider current reads (especially mine cause I was tying mine together). RIP Coco So quick reevaluation of Ver; the prefect situation actually was a good test, which changes things around. It shifts my overall read, especially with the other dependent interactions, to village. I’m much less confident on my read of Hopper. Some previous points still stand, but I don’t know if they’ve posted enough to get a strong read. So for now I’m probably gonna say neutral? Drake/Aman I still think Drake has elim potential, their prefect mess just reads differently from Ver’s. Part of this could be general chaos vibes, but the vibes still seem to be there. New suspects may be TJ and/or Wahr because they’ve been mentioned in thread a few times and my reads on them are uncertain. Idk though Anyone feel they have new elim suspects? Cause Coco flipping village seems to have upset quite a few theories
Through the living Wahr He/Him Posted April 2 Posted April 2 (edited) So Vote Analysis Time, there were two missleading Claims and a fes that changed the numerical value I will not count those as Misleading as thats a very slight change to make. The People that were Misleading are: Drake, he claimed to -Vote Miss but didnt Miss, she claimed to -Vote Hopper but didnt. To be fair a Missleading from Miss was expected as she again claimed four negative Votes in thread. Also the only positive claim I saw was from Ink on Drake and that turned out true. Now time for some Train analysis. There have to be elims in the leading trains, especially if coco leads with that big of a diffrence on the negative side. So The leading trains are TJ, Grass, Ink, Coco active in three of those are: Verdance (Coco, Ink, TJ), Wahr (TJ, Verdance, Coco), TJ (Ink, Coco, Verdance), Mippo (Ink, TJ, Coco), Miss (Coco, Verdance, TJ), Mint (Verdance, Ink, TJ) active in two of those are: Aman/Drake (TJ, Coco), Ink (Coco, Verdance), TUM (Ink, Coco) active in one of those are: Twin (Coco) Crossrefrencing the last two cycles in leading trains on two prior Days Grass (3,3,3); Aman/Drake (2,3,1); TJ (3,2,3); Mint (2,1,3) in leading trains on one prior Day Ink (2,-,2); Mippo (2,-,3) TUM(-,1,2); Twin (-,3,1); Wahr (-,3,3); Miss (-,2,3) So I dont like how Grass, Mint, TJ and Aman/Drake are constantly part of leading execution trains. So I am growing more suspicious of them. especially with Drake trying to obfuscat who the Gryffindor Prefect is and being misleading about his votes after advocating for the color coded system. So my Votes will go to Drake, TJ and Grass for now VC: (1-3) Drake Wahr (1-3) (1-3) Grass Wahr (1-3) (1-3) TJ Wahr (1-3) 5 hours ago, Verdance said: Yeah uh so idk what to do at this point, somehow after all that Coco was village, which means I’m almost definitely being voted out this round and will get to see the dead doc and finally know who the elims are cause these elims are brilliant if we haven’t gotten a single one so far. So uh, how did Owl Mail and Friendship go? @Through the living Wahr @DrakeMarshall I got friendship with Ravenclaw Ed1t: The train Count should be correct now, didnt have time to add on which trains there were yet, but the important info should all be correct now. Ed2t Added who was part of which trains Edited April 2 by Through the living Wahr 2
Aeternum Posted April 2 Posted April 2 Causing confusion on who is the prefect imo is more pro-town than pro-elim. The misleading votes part I'd be more concerned about.
Ink and Embers Any pronouns Posted April 2 Posted April 2 Forest hits the Drake Fairy on the side of the head with their broomstick. "You are NOT the Prefect!" At this point, their niffler Matches started squeaking loudly, seemingly trying to scramble towards something shiny - oh, the Snitch. "Over there!" Forest gestured to ... whoever the Seeker was. They were remembering why they didn't play Quidditch; least of all because of all the missed practices thanks to detention. Horray! I'm not dead! No! Coco's not an Elim! No! Mippo - sorry, _______ - is dead! I still did not use Protego because I still don't know who's getting targeted! (Well. I do now, but they're dead by this point). Sorry for not responding to Drake's general chaos earlier; I will reiterate that I AM the Gryffindor Prefect. Why. Why are you doing this, @DrakeMarshall. I looked at the voting list and was alarmed at how small it was. Drake's note about how, if there are 4 Elims not 3, we have equal chance hitting Elims voting for anyone as for voting for Prefects, has a point but there's probably at least one Elim among the Prefects (not me, though I am a Prefect) as it makes sense Elims would try to get as many spells as possible. I'm also questioning if leaving Matches the Niffler in Drake Fairy's care should Forest die is a good idea.
Through the living Wahr He/Him Posted April 2 Posted April 2 (edited) I just noticed that I messed up the train count, that post was like the first thing I did after waking up, will correct it as soon as I can Ed1t: The Important Info is corrected Edited April 2 by Through the living Wahr
DrakeMarshall he/him Posted April 2 Posted April 2 Ink, followed by TUM. Let's not overthink things. Coco flipped village, so we know Coco didn't lie about Obliviating Verdant. There's a 50% chance Verdant wouldn't have been able to Docblock, so Verdant is less probable as a suspect. Of course it's still possible that Verdant is the elim Prefect, but we can only really go with the most probable option based on the available information, and Verdant is kind of objectively not that. Unless someone has a pretty strong reason to suspect Verdant that outweighs the evidence. I don't. That leaves TJ and Ink. TJ has still been consensus read as village for most of the game. TJ still provided us with this suspect pool in the first place. I really don't think it's inconceivable that evil TJ would do this, especially if he were the only evil Prefect in the game and confident we would execute multiple village Prefects before him. It's still not the most intuitive elim play. Last we talked, Ink was significantly more chill with my chaos play in our Gryffindor PM, so the shift in tone in public feels kinda disingenuous. But maybe I'm biased. Even if I am biased, from Ink's POV, if Ink is village, there's definitely an elim in <TJ, Verdant>. I know I can be a very scary fairy, but spending most of your breath on little old me is still a choice I think. Perhaps I assume too much, but my expectation is that village Prefects would be doubling down even harder on killing the other Prefects. TUM was doing much the same thing, and I still think he's evil. Perhaps I'm tunneling, it's quite possible. If anyone actually village reads TUM, please let me know! I kinda feel that he was defending TJ just to perpetrate wifom nonsense which is part of why I'm simply refusing to overthink now Just to clear things up: 12 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said: The truth is, I'm actually the Prefect. Ink has been covering for me/Aman to throw off the elims. I've continued to be misleading about the identity of the Prefect because I usually don't respond well to getting questioned immediately on subbing into a game But the truth must come out at this point. I will prove it by using Stupefy on TJ today. Stupefy is probably the best spell for the village if you ask me. Also, I've rethought some things and I now think the most likely explanation is TJ obliviated Doc and then truthfully reported that one of the Prefects obliviated Doc. Sorry for the confusion. ʎɐp s,looɟ lıɹdɐ ʎddɐɥ 10 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said: The truth is, Frozen Mint is actually the Gryffindor Prefect. Both me and Ink were running interference to throw off the elims. I think Miss Fallen and TJ are probably both elims and on the same team. Reveal hidden contents Happy april fools day my vote is still on Coco. The suspect pool is (Coco, Ink, Verdant) with a 50% chance that Verdant wouldn't be able to Obliviate. Verdant also just feels village to me NGL, but that should probably be taken with a grain or two of salt. Notably, all 3 suspects are down to shoot inside the suspect pool, so the elim here is clearly just gunning to survive another day, not anything longer term than that. I choose to believe that the people with boring-yet-sensible claims like "I picked Protego but haven't used it yet" are not the ones running a gambit here. And I still find some of the circumstances of Coco's claim dubious. Also, TJ and Miss Fallen are both villagers. Good day. Both of these posts were not sincere in the slightest. They are full of some pretty buck wild views, many of which directly contradict things I've said before and after. I included white text in the first. I made the second post to be a bit more direct, both by amping up the absurdity of my claims and by attaching a spoiler saying "april fools" and laying out my actual views and my actual vote. Which, again, directly contradicts the message above the spoiler in the same post. I thought what I was up to would be more apparent at least in the second post. Or that anyone who took serious exception might take a closer look. Maybe that's on me. It would be one thing if I were being needlessly confusing without making an effort to lay down breadcrumbs or make my true meaning readable. I don't rly believe that's the case here though tbqh. Fie on me for subverting my own color-coding convention though I suppose ...I still kinda think opening a spoiler tab before you launch a crusade isn't a huge ask If you're still unhappy about being confused, that's your prerogative. Or if you have a different reason to think I'm evil I'm all ears. I am evil, of course. Just not in that way So long as we all agree that a Prefect should be expelled today, you can think what you like. I think I've talked enough about this. Vote Tally: (3) Ink: Drake(3) (2) TUM: Drake(2) (1-3) Drake: Wahr (1-3) (1-3) Grass: Wahr (1-3) (1-3) TJ: Wahr (1-3) I will note that we probably don't want any suspect to amass too many positive points right now (if I understand correctly, it makes it harder to execute them later, which could actually seriously mess with our endgame). This is mainly relevant for TJ. That said, I don't really believe everyone casting multiple votes at once on different Prefects is the most ideal. In my view, this just makes it too convenient for the elims to swing the vote onto the wrong Prefect, since they will all have lots of negative votes. I would rather try to accumulate negative votes on specifically the most suspicious Prefect, as much as possible. Obviously we will not all agree on who the most suspicious is, but at least we can try. Or to be more forward about it, today's vote is probably just about deciding between which of the Prefects to expel. We can physically only execute one of them today though. So spreading your votes between multiple Prefects kinda feels like throwing them away. If I vote Ink -3 and Grass -2, then in cases where Ink and Grass are closely tied, I've only given Ink 1 more vote than Grass. But if Ink is the only Prefect I voted today, then my vote will have much greater impact on which one gets expelled if it ends up being close. 1
Through the living Wahr He/Him Posted April 2 Posted April 2 15 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said: Ink, followed by TUM. Let's not overthink things. Coco flipped village, so we know Coco didn't lie about Obliviating Verdant. There's a 50% chance Verdant wouldn't have been able to Docblock, so Verdant is less probable as a suspect. Of course it's still possible that Verdant is the elim Prefect, but we can only really go with the most probable option based on the available information, and Verdant is kind of objectively not that. Unless someone has a pretty strong reason to suspect Verdant that outweighs the evidence. I don't. That leaves TJ and Ink. TJ has still been consensus read as village for most of the game. TJ still provided us with this suspect pool in the first place. I really don't think it's inconceivable that evil TJ would do this, especially if he were the only evil Prefect in the game and confident we would execute multiple village Prefects before him. It's still not the most intuitive elim play. Last we talked, Ink was significantly more chill with my chaos play in our Gryffindor PM, so the shift in tone in public feels kinda disingenuous. But maybe I'm biased. Even if I am biased, from Ink's POV, if Ink is village, there's definitely an elim in <TJ, Verdant>. I know I can be a very scary fairy, but spending most of your breath on little old me is still a choice I think. Perhaps I assume too much, but my expectation is that village Prefects would be doubling down even harder on killing the other Prefects. TUM was doing much the same thing, and I still think he's evil. Perhaps I'm tunneling, it's quite possible. If anyone actually village reads TUM, please let me know! I kinda feel that he was defending TJ just to perpetrate wifom nonsense which is part of why I'm simply refusing to overthink now Just to clear things up: Both of these posts were not sincere in the slightest. They are full of some pretty buck wild views, many of which directly contradict things I've said before and after. I included white text in the first. I made the second post to be a bit more direct, both by amping up the absurdity of my claims and by attaching a spoiler saying "april fools" and laying out my actual views and my actual vote. Which, again, directly contradicts the message above the spoiler in the same post. I thought what I was up to would be more apparent at least in the second post. Or that anyone who took serious exception might take a closer look. Maybe that's on me. It would be one thing if I were being needlessly confusing without making an effort to lay down breadcrumbs or make my true meaning readable. I don't rly believe that's the case here though tbqh. Fie on me for subverting my own color-coding convention though I suppose ...I still kinda think opening a spoiler tab before you launch a crusade isn't a huge ask If you're still unhappy about being confused, that's your prerogative. Or if you have a different reason to think I'm evil I'm all ears. I am evil, of course. Just not in that way So long as we all agree that a Prefect should be expelled today, you can think what you like. I think I've talked enough about this. Vote Tally: (3) Ink: Drake(3) (2) TUM: Drake(2) (1-3) Drake: Wahr (1-3) (1-3) Grass: Wahr (1-3) (1-3) TJ: Wahr (1-3) I will note that we probably don't want any suspect to amass too many positive points right now (if I understand correctly, it makes it harder to execute them later, which could actually seriously mess with our endgame). This is mainly relevant for TJ. That said, I don't really believe everyone casting multiple votes at once on different Prefects is the most ideal. In my view, this just makes it too convenient for the elims to swing the vote onto the wrong Prefect, since they will all have lots of negative votes. I would rather try to accumulate negative votes on specifically the most suspicious Prefect, as much as possible. Obviously we will not all agree on who the most suspicious is, but at least we can try. Or to be more forward about it, today's vote is probably just about deciding between which of the Prefects to expel. We can physically only execute one of them today though. So spreading your votes between multiple Prefects kinda feels like throwing them away. If I vote Ink -3 and Grass -2, then in cases where Ink and Grass are closely tied, I've only given Ink 1 more vote than Grass. But if Ink is the only Prefect I voted today, then my vote will have much greater impact on which one gets expelled if it ends up being close. No all Points will be reset each Day, Positive and Negative. Even if TJ gets lots of good votes today, nect Cycle he will start with 0 again. So theres not much to worry about. Also just because Coco is village doesnt mean that she told the truth regarding Verdance. Maybe she wanted to keep her spell for a future suspect and wanted to keep the Elims in a false security which would make it entirely viable for Verdance to Obliviate Doc.
Aeternum Posted April 2 Posted April 2 (edited) Day 1 votes with flips: Spoiler Players 1st (+3) 2nd (+2) 3rd (+1) 3rd (-1) 2nd (-2) 1st (-3) Mist Doc12 Grass Qianweilian Coco Aman/Drake Araris Aman/Drake Araris Unknown Medallion Wahr Hopper Coco Doc12 Grass Mist Doc12 Miss Fallen Coco Araris Aman/Drake Coco Qianweilian Aman/Drake Doc12 Hopper Araris NONE Hopper NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Araris TJ Qianweilian Aman/Drake Unknown Medallion Wahr Coco Wahr NONE NONE Unknown Medallion Doc12 TwinStorm Araris TwinStorm Doc12 Mist Grass Aman/Drake Unknown Medallion Wahr Ink Wahr Frozen Mint Aman/Drake Hopper NONE Araris Doc12 Mist Aman/Drake TJ Coco Unknown Medallion Hopper Mippo TJ Mist Aman/Drake Wahr Ink Hopper Qianweilian Mist Doc12 Unknown Medallion Coco Wahr Aman/Drake TJ NONE Mist Mippo Araris Hopper NONE Miss Fallen NONE Doc12 Mist Ink Unknown Medallion NONE Emperor Comatose/Aet NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Unknown Medallion NONE NONE NONE Doc12 Araris Aman/Drake Frozen Mint Miss Fallen Mist Doc12 Aman/Drake Coco NONE Day 2: Spoiler Players 1st (+3) 2nd (+2) 3rd (+1) 3rd (-1) 2nd (-2) 1st (-3) Aman/Drake TJ Ink Hopper Miss Fallen Qianweilian Frozen Mint Grass NONE TJ Doc12 Wahr Coco NONE Coco Doc12 Miss Fallen Aman/Drake Grass TJ NONE Hopper NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Wahr NONE Unknown Medallion TJ Coco Qianweilian NONE TwinStorm Doc12 Aman/Drake TJ Hopper Qianweilian Unknown Medallion Ink NONE Grass NONE Aman/Drake NONE NONE Doc12 TJ Wahr Coco Ink Miss Fallen Frozen Mint Mippo NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Qianweilian Unknown Medallion Doc12 Emperor Comatose/Aet Aman/Drake Hopper Grass TJ Mippo Aman/Drake Unknown Medallion Frozen Mint Ink Coco Miss Fallen Doc12 Mippo Frozen Mint Grass Coco Aman/Drake Emperor Comatose/Aet Doc12 Miss Fallen NONE NONE Coco Aman/Drake Unknown Medallion NONE NONE NONE Aman/Drake NONE Frozen Mint Frozen Mint Aman/Drake Coco Ink Doc12 Unknown Medallion Qianweilian Day 3: Spoiler 3 2 1 -1 -2 -3 Aman/Drake TJ Miss Fallen Frozen Mint NONE Unknown Medallion Coco Grass NONE TJ TwinStorm Ink Unknown Medallion Coco Coco Wahr Unknown Medallion Miss Fallen Aman/Drake TJ Ink Hopper NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Wahr NONE TJ Aman/Drake Hopper Grass/Ver Coco TwinStorm Aet/Emperor Comatose Grass/Ver Wahr Aman/Drake Coco Unknown Medallion Ink NONE NONE Aman/Drake Hopper Grass/Ver Coco Mippo NONE NONE TJ Hopper Coco Ink TJ Unknown Medallion Aman/Drake Mippo Grass/Ver Ink Coco Miss Fallen Ink TJ Frozen Mint Aman/Drake Coco Grass/Ver Aet/Emperor Comatose NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Unknown Medallion Aman/Drake NONE NONE TJ Ink Coco Frozen Mint TJ Aman/Drake Coco Ink Miss Fallen Grass/Ver I was writing a whole section and then for some reason it all got deleted and now I have to fill in what I wrote from memory so I'm a little upset and giving up on analysis for tonight. Sigh. Anyways. I can pretty comfortably cross out Drake being with TUM or Grass atp, since if you're going to distance, you don't -3 an elim partner. Any potential distancing would be in the -1s, but I don't really know if I expect much distancing. If Drake is an elim, that means his teammates are somewhere in Frozen Mint, TJ, Ink, TwinStorm, Hopper. With Ink making the most sense. Atp I probably just townread Drake because I think we lose to e!Drake, and because Aman was towny. Frozen Mint and TUM are unpaired for similar reasons. I could probably unpair most people who voted each other -3. Hopper not voting anyone at all is imo not indicative of much. If anything, I expect elims to vote more since elim doc should push for them to vote, but there's a world where e!Hopper is simply inactive in elim doc. Wahr had towny posting day 2. My current town pool is Drake, Wahr, Miss Fallen. I did have Grass/Verdance as town earlier, but I went to recheck and I dunno, this kind of reads like a slip but doesn't really make sense to be one when I actually check votes, since most of the Mist +2/3 voters are flipped town. But Verdance also posts a bit like innocent town (mostly around the whole reaction test thing day 2). There were a lot of people who did not vote a -3 on day 2. I'm reading this as it likely meaning an elim was not in danger that day. I'm probably looking the most at TJ and Ink right now, since TJ got votes in a pattern that I felt I should be looking for (hence why I was checking Wahr and Verdance), and Ink for idk similar reasons. There is a chance that day 3, all the elims voted -3 on Coco, especially in worlds where Verdance or Ink are elims. Idk vote analysis is definitely not my specialty, but I'm not sure that the difference in apathy towards the day 2 exe vs the amount of votes for the day 3 exe amounts to nothing. Much higher chance of an elim being in danger on day 3 than day 2, specifically in Verdance/Ink I think. I don't really think an elim was in significant danger on day 1 either, with how spread out votes were, but I'd be more confident on saying that for day 2 than day 1. Edit: Mippo not getting + votes on day 3 and then dying is also interesting, but I'll think about it later. Edited April 2 by Aeternum missed a name
DrakeMarshall he/him Posted April 2 Posted April 2 10 minutes ago, Through the living Wahr said: No all Points will be reset each Day, Positive and Negative. Even if TJ gets lots of good votes today, nect Cycle he will start with 0 again. So theres not much to worry about. Oh. Well that's nice. All the more reason not to spread votes between multiple Prefects today, then. 11 minutes ago, Through the living Wahr said: Also just because Coco is village doesnt mean that she told the truth regarding Verdance. Maybe she wanted to keep her spell for a future suspect and wanted to keep the Elims in a false security which would make it entirely viable for Verdance to Obliviate Doc. I'm quite sure that Coco really did Obliviate Verdant. Coco was using the Obliviate on Verdance in her reasoning for who to vote for yesterday. I kinda think you don't hold back on information relevant to the current vote, not just to mislead the elims about the status of a mildly useful 1-shot ability. ...also, she messaged me today, remember? I kinda think she'd have mentioned if that was a fib, because there's no use in keeping up such a deception post-mortem. 9 minutes ago, Aeternum said: Mippo not getting + votes on day 3 and then dying is also interesting, but I'll think about it later. Well, if the elims wanted to continue with their previous kill doctrine, it would probably land on TJ. Not surprised that didn't happen. Either TJ is evil, or he's village and his flip would substantially narrow the suspect pool. Plus we were already talking about maybe suspecting Extra Credit recipients who didn't die yesterday. Kind of asking for mindgames honestly. I wonder if the elims hitting the Extra Credit people twice in a row wasn't just lucky on their part. Maybe they deliberately +voted for their kill targets. Honestly not a bad strategy.
Through the living Wahr He/Him Posted April 2 Posted April 2 7 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said: Oh. Well that's nice. All the more reason not to spread votes between multiple Prefects today, then. I'm quite sure that Coco really did Obliviate Verdant. Coco was using the Obliviate on Verdance in her reasoning for who to vote for yesterday. I kinda think you don't hold back on information relevant to the current vote, not just to mislead the elims about the status of a mildly useful 1-shot ability. ...also, she messaged me today, remember? I kinda think she'd have mentioned if that was a fib, because there's no use in keeping up such a deception post-mortem. Right forgott about the Owl Mail, so you are probably right and Coco did Obliviate Verdance Or you are Elim and have tampered with the Message. (Just saying that that is a possibility) Also spreading Votes among Ink and Verdance would tell us who the elims wanted Dead. Also it is not like you can use multiple votes on the Same Player So you might as well use them on multiple suspects.
DrakeMarshall he/him Posted April 2 Posted April 2 2 minutes ago, Through the living Wahr said: Also spreading Votes among Ink and Verdance would tell us who the elims wanted Dead. Yeah, by killing them. I'll pass. We aren't doing well enough in this game for me to make that trade. 18 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said: I wonder if the elims hitting the Extra Credit people twice in a row wasn't just lucky on their part. Maybe they deliberately +voted for their kill targets. Honestly not a bad strategy. Okay looking at the votes, this theory is probably not true.
Verdance he/him Posted April 2 Posted April 2 8 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said: honestly quite confused by this well I'm 0 for 2 when it comes to reading Coco rip anyways I'd say the elims mixing up their kill doctrine is surprising but it's not really anyways, I bear messages from the dead Mippo's message reads like a legacy of reads. Mippo says only Wahr, Ink, and Verdant were drawing any attention to them. Reading between the lines, I assume this is implying one of those people might've killed them, though Mippo states they think Verdant seems more trustworthy. Mippo also village reads TJ. Mippo also wanted you all to know that Drake is incredibly handsome and also wise. Coco would like to inform us that she was not an elim She also thinks we should continue executing in the prefect pool, which I agree with. She thinks Ink should be voted out next, which I mostly agree with. She also thinks my jokes about the identity of the Gryffindor Prefect were extremely tasteful and funny. That's everything the dead have to say, relayed completely truthfully and honestly. I want to expel another Prefect suspect today. Someone in <Ink, TJ, Verdant> must be evil. Ink seems like the obvious choice but at this point I feel shaken enough that I'm also willing to consider evil TJ I also lowkey still think TUM is evil, bro has that sorta energy rn edit: actually, the odds of hitting an elim in the Prefect suspect pool are barely better than the odds of hitting an elim just from voting any random player at this point, if we assume 4 elims. So maybe it isn't as imperative to expel Prefects. I still want to resolve this, though. TJ is safe. If I can trust anyone it’s TJ. Idk, I guess I might vote against Ink, do to prefect suspicions? Maybe? But I basically need to reevaluate everyone now. I might have “suspicious, but not enough material to vote against” on Wahr or Drake, based on vibes? I think Fallen, Twinstorm, and TUM go in the neutral box.
Ink and Embers Any pronouns Posted April 2 Posted April 2 Ver gives village vibes to me as a fellow slightly confused Prefect, so I don't want to negatively vote for him. I also want to survive this cycle, though, so if it comes down to me vs him I will vote against him. I'd prefer not to. I think Drake is village but I can barely follow his shenanigans so I may just be very, very confused (I do trust him. Probably. I think). I don't have a strong read on TJ other than what everyone else has said about him. Mint is still quiet in PMs. I am still baffled by Hopper's voting as he's quiet other than voting and rarely fully justifies his decisions, so in terms of Elims outside the Prefect pool, I'm most suspicious of him (though I understand that we do currently have better odds of getting at least one Elim from within the pool). So this is great, because I trust all the other Prefects (ish) despite knowing one of us must be an Elim, which isn't good for me. Everyone else, I haven't the foggiest about. This is great! *tries and fails to write RP to go with this*
|TJ| he/him Posted April 2 Posted April 2 5 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said: That said, I don't really believe everyone casting multiple votes at once on different Prefects is the most ideal. In my view, this just makes it too convenient for the elims to swing the vote onto the wrong Prefect, since they will all have lots of negative votes. I would rather try to accumulate negative votes on specifically the most suspicious Prefect, as much as possible. Obviously we will not all agree on who the most suspicious is, but at least we can try. Or to be more forward about it, today's vote is probably just about deciding between which of the Prefects to expel. We can physically only execute one of them today though. So spreading your votes between multiple Prefects kinda feels like throwing them away. If I vote Ink -3 and Grass -2, then in cases where Ink and Grass are closely tied, I've only given Ink 1 more vote than Grass. But if Ink is the only Prefect I voted today, then my vote will have much greater impact on which one gets expelled if it ends up being close. I agree with this tbh, there is a world where both Verdance and Ink might be evil (Verdance voted -1 on Ink)(in this case I am looking at everyone trying to see if a vote on me is viable) but that is irrelevant here as we are making sure one of them always goes through. I will ISO both of them later. However, I will bring attention to another PoE we need to look at. Elims knew to target Doc with Obliviate, which means they knew Doc was a Prefect, implying there is an elim in Slytherin. That is... Wahr, TwinStorm, Aet and TUM. I am now wondering if TUM misremembering that Slytherin had revealed their Prefects to the thread might have been a slip. Wahr would go well in a team if both Ink and Verdance are evil given that he has voted for me. Anyway, my vote would be: Prefect 1 -> -1 Slytherin Suspect -> -2 Prefect 2 -> -3 1
Through the living Wahr He/Him Posted April 2 Posted April 2 Current VC I will note that it isnt the most reliable since TJ is very secretive about his Votes. (4, 6) Ink: Drake(3), TJ (1,3) (2-4, 6) Grass: Wahr (1-3), TJ (1,3) (2, 4) TUM: Drake(2), TJ (0,2) (1-3) Drake: Wahr (1-3) (1-3) TJ: Wahr (1-3) (0,2) Twin: TJ (0,2) (0,2) Wahr: TJ (0,2) (0,2) Aet: TJ (0,2)
The Unknown Medallion he/him Posted April 2 Posted April 2 13 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said: I don't know, but all the members of this PoE are all gung-ho about killing the others, so "the elims are not okay with existing in a PoE" doesn't seem as true anymore edit: TUM, sorry if I’m pressing too hard, but who do you think the evil Prefect is? You’re spending a lot of words talking about adjacent issues, but you don’t feel that interested in solving the problem that actually matters. I don't think a low thread control elim tries to throw doubt in the poe very much, and both Ink and Ver fit that mold. Am I talking around the problem? I mainly addressed TJ, who is literally in the pool. Not that I've spent many words at all, cause this rollover time sucks for me I'm currently going for Ink, and I think Ver and TJ are roughly equally likely to be elim 9 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said: Ink, followed by TUM. Let's not overthink things. Coco flipped village, so we know Coco didn't lie about Obliviating Verdant. There's a 50% chance Verdant wouldn't have been able to Docblock, so Verdant is less probable as a suspect. Of course it's still possible that Verdant is the elim Prefect, but we can only really go with the most probable option based on the available information, and Verdant is kind of objectively not that. Unless someone has a pretty strong reason to suspect Verdant that outweighs the evidence. I don't. That leaves TJ and Ink. TJ has still been consensus read as village for most of the game. TJ still provided us with this suspect pool in the first place. I really don't think it's inconceivable that evil TJ would do this, especially if he were the only evil Prefect in the game and confident we would execute multiple village Prefects before him. It's still not the most intuitive elim play. Last we talked, Ink was significantly more chill with my chaos play in our Gryffindor PM, so the shift in tone in public feels kinda disingenuous. But maybe I'm biased. Even if I am biased, from Ink's POV, if Ink is village, there's definitely an elim in <TJ, Verdant>. I know I can be a very scary fairy, but spending most of your breath on little old me is still a choice I think. Perhaps I assume too much, but my expectation is that village Prefects would be doubling down even harder on killing the other Prefects. TUM was doing much the same thing, and I still think he's evil. Perhaps I'm tunneling, it's quite possible. If anyone actually village reads TUM, please let me know! I kinda feel that he was defending TJ just to perpetrate wifom nonsense which is part of why I'm simply refusing to overthink now Just to clear things up: Both of these posts were not sincere in the slightest. They are full of some pretty buck wild views, many of which directly contradict things I've said before and after. I included white text in the first. I made the second post to be a bit more direct, both by amping up the absurdity of my claims and by attaching a spoiler saying "april fools" and laying out my actual views and my actual vote. Which, again, directly contradicts the message above the spoiler in the same post. I thought what I was up to would be more apparent at least in the second post. Or that anyone who took serious exception might take a closer look. Maybe that's on me. It would be one thing if I were being needlessly confusing without making an effort to lay down breadcrumbs or make my true meaning readable. I don't rly believe that's the case here though tbqh. Fie on me for subverting my own color-coding convention though I suppose ...I still kinda think opening a spoiler tab before you launch a crusade isn't a huge ask If you're still unhappy about being confused, that's your prerogative. Or if you have a different reason to think I'm evil I'm all ears. I am evil, of course. Just not in that way So long as we all agree that a Prefect should be expelled today, you can think what you like. I think I've talked enough about this. Vote Tally: (3) Ink: Drake(3) (2) TUM: Drake(2) (1-3) Drake: Wahr (1-3) (1-3) Grass: Wahr (1-3) (1-3) TJ: Wahr (1-3) I will note that we probably don't want any suspect to amass too many positive points right now (if I understand correctly, it makes it harder to execute them later, which could actually seriously mess with our endgame). This is mainly relevant for TJ. That said, I don't really believe everyone casting multiple votes at once on different Prefects is the most ideal. In my view, this just makes it too convenient for the elims to swing the vote onto the wrong Prefect, since they will all have lots of negative votes. I would rather try to accumulate negative votes on specifically the most suspicious Prefect, as much as possible. Obviously we will not all agree on who the most suspicious is, but at least we can try. Or to be more forward about it, today's vote is probably just about deciding between which of the Prefects to expel. We can physically only execute one of them today though. So spreading your votes between multiple Prefects kinda feels like throwing them away. If I vote Ink -3 and Grass -2, then in cases where Ink and Grass are closely tied, I've only given Ink 1 more vote than Grass. But if Ink is the only Prefect I voted today, then my vote will have much greater impact on which one gets expelled if it ends up being close. Again, I'm engaging with the topic at hand, every post has addressed it on some level I think. You are tunneling at least a little bit Aman v!read me toward the end I think, but idr. And do you really think e!me has this few positive votes when I could be upvoting my teammates. At least one teammate has to be Village read enough that e!me could justify it. 4 hours ago, |TJ| said: I agree with this tbh, there is a world where both Verdance and Ink might be evil (Verdance voted -1 on Ink)(in this case I am looking at everyone trying to see if a vote on me is viable) but that is irrelevant here as we are making sure one of them always goes through. I will ISO both of them later. However, I will bring attention to another PoE we need to look at. Elims knew to target Doc with Obliviate, which means they knew Doc was a Prefect, implying there is an elim in Slytherin. That is... Wahr, TwinStorm, Aet and TUM. I am now wondering if TUM misremembering that Slytherin had revealed their Prefects to the thread might have been a slip. Wahr would go well in a team if both Ink and Verdance are evil given that he has voted for me. Anyway, my vote would be: Prefect 1 -> -1 Slytherin Suspect -> -2 Prefect 2 -> -3 I still think we did, I'm going to check now actually. Doc also didn't say he was going to self-protego in the PM. I don't think he even mentioned it as a general strategy.
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