Myst He/Him Posted March 13 Posted March 13 3 minutes ago, Wahrheitswächter said: I will try it but you are asking me to stay up til 3AM, I will try it but I will not lie, thats a good bud later than my usual sleeptime so theres a decent chance that I will fall asleep. Don’t stay up till 3AM, you need sleep. park your vote on Twin or Burnt and let the people who are normally awake at that time do it
Stick. she/her Posted March 13 Posted March 13 5 minutes ago, Wahrheitswächter said: I will try it but you are asking me to stay up til 3AM, I will try it but I will not lie, thats a good bud later than my usual sleeptime so theres a decent chance that I will fall asleep. Yeah honestly same, very unlikely for me since my schedule is kind of wack atm with the post-midnight sirens @Mistfallen Soldier or @Doc12 switch with me? People that can be online at eod best be on burnt for now I think, move at eod to form the numbers if needed Twin 1
Myst He/Him Posted March 13 Posted March 13 Just now, Stick. said: Yeah honestly same, very unlikely for me since my schedule is kind of wack atm with the post-midnight sirens @Mistfallen Soldier or @Doc12 switch with me? People that can be online at eod best be on burnt for now I think, move at eod to form the numbers if needed Twin Yeah. I’ll be prepared for rollover Burnt 1
Haelbarde he/him Posted March 13 Posted March 13 7 hours ago, Divergent said: You didn't post at all in the last 3 cycles of Loop 2 or did you post, but they weren't counted? I posted Day 2 B and then next posted Day 1 C. I did post twice in Night 1 C but neither post counted apparently. I do feel like I would have preferred a Mist side train but I can go Twin 1
Amanuensis he/him Posted March 13 Author Posted March 13 (edited) 11 minutes ago, Haelbarde said: I did post twice in Night 1 C but neither post counted apparently. You can link me if I was too strict but IIRC I don't afford any Rupees for "pop in" posts that aren't coupled w/ something that adds to discussion and I determined those to be instances of such I.e. any post which is solely to indicate presence due to prior absence isn't enough to earn a money Edited March 13 by Amanuensis 1
Haelbarde he/him Posted March 13 Posted March 13 1 minute ago, Amanuensis said: You can link me if I was too strict but IIRC I don't afford any Rupees for "pop in" posts that aren't coupled w/ something that adds to discussion and I determined those to be instances of such I.e. any post which is solely to indicate presence due to prior absence isn't enough to earn a money I don't think they were that, and they were on topic but they weren't substantive and I don't really care about the rupees. If we get another loop I'll have already met the relevant thresholds regardless.
Amanuensis he/him Posted March 13 Author Posted March 13 2 minutes ago, Haelbarde said: I don't think they were that, and they were on topic but they weren't substantive and I don't really care about the rupees. If we get another loop I'll have already met the relevant thresholds regardless. I will double check my numbers for you when I get home from work / after turnover I don't believe in scamming people!
Haelbarde he/him Posted March 13 Posted March 13 6 minutes ago, Amanuensis said: I will double check my numbers for you when I get home from work / after turnover I don't believe in scamming people! Does it matter if I don't feel scammed?
Doc12 Posted March 13 Posted March 13 (edited) 18 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said: Ok well here are some thoughts “Hael looks village from D3A” I still think he does. Plus it’s like what Archer said, padding out your team with less active players is not the answer. But if Hael is evil, then we could have Burnt / Hael / TwinStorm “Burnt and Coco look unpaired” If we think it was an E/E pair of wagons yesterday and the elims rolled over, then it could be Burnt / Coco / TwinStorm ”Burnt and Doc look unpaired” If Doc did a little bussing or if Divergent is also evil, we can have Burnt / Doc / TwinStorm this is the one I think it is. 8 hours ago, Divergent said: I think the explanation would be that these two have already been strongly pushed for for at least two days and that it has been successfully derailed. With the advent of a new loop, which revealed that the elims won it, I think most of the suspicions falls on those two and trying to derail it, especially in a significant way, would have just looked suspicious. I have some questions about your assertions. Firstly, I tried looking for your reasons that Hael is village, and from what i can gather it is because TUM and Hael were allowed to tie D3A, and you think elims wouldn't have let that happen because losing one elim then would have lost them the loop. I don't think that's as strong a reason as you think it is, because it wasn't truly a tie, as the rupee count if the elims were keeping track was the deciding factor. Hael wasn't in as much danger as he seemed. I initially dismissed Hael for the same reasons I dismissed Twin/Hoid, in that they just weren't active enough to really read, but from the two Hael has been more active and present. I still think Twin/Hoid is more possible, I just question your confidence. Secondly, on whether I bussed Burnt. As you observed, I kept my vote on Burnt when she was tied with Dive. In the night, I went through the vote switches and wanted to vote Burnt again, so I was surprised in the morning when everyone seemed to have move on. I tried to restart the vote but it just wasn't gaining any traction. You could see it as bussing, but my vote has been consistent with my analyses. Lastly, there wasn't really a resistance to Burnt/Coco wagon. I'd point out there's also been very little attempt at counterwagon today. If Burnt and Coco were both e! and one of the elims is Twin, then its probable that the remaining elim was forced to let it happen. 17 hours ago, Araris Valerian said: This has been what I've been focusing on. I think both possible versions of the e/v split here have implications about who in the dead doc is elim (Archer/TJ). Worst case here is probably coco/Burnt are v/v, and Burnt being honest about not having the Stone Mask. We kinda just lose this one from exeing Burnt. Next worst case is e/v and Burnt is elim with Stone Mask. I think this has extremely strong implications for TJ as elim, and probably the others are Doc/Twinstorm, especially since it sounds like Doc could have bought a purple mask? I haven't really been following the cash flow. Honestly I think Mist could be elim as well in this world, see my earlier posts this cycle. If they are e/v and Burnt doesn't have the Stone Mask, we are sitting kind comfy. I'm not really sure that this is a likely outcome though. If they are v/v and Burnt actually has the Mask but is lying, then Mist is elim, probably teamed with Doc and Twinstorm. So Twinstorm as the secondary exe seems like it's our best option here, really. What about the option where they're e/e? Archer and TJ can't both be elim. Again, everyone was so aboard with voting Coco last loop I'm now surprised that people are considering that she might be village now. In my view, Coco being e! is what explains Burnt accusing Mist. Coco was in danger of being voted out two days last loop - both times, Archer voted last minute to ensure Coco lived. I would have wanted Coco exed this cycle regardless to see why Archer kept defending her, but then Burnt's claim changed the conversation temporarily. The fact that Burnt could also have bought Stone doesn't change the attempt to draw attention to herself, so that's why I'm sticking with my e/e theory. =o= Thistle had never been to the Great Bay. It had always sounded like an idyllic place. Bright sun, cool waves, fine sand. Funny how even the bright sunlight couldn't stop the abandoned beach from sending a shiver down their spine. They'd caught up with the party late last night - Cindra had doubled back to check on them, a fact that Thistle was grateful for. They didn't remember much of the trek. Just one foot in front of the other, again and again and again, a numb, mindless cycle as they tried not to process what might have happened. She was gone. Could Thistle plead with Ap? Something had obviously gone very, very wrong already if this loop had no Amora in it. Amora was their fighter, the person that checked on each of them and threw herself into danger alongside Kieran. Surely they could... try again? They'd almost steeled themselves to ask, but the Happy Mask Salesman had been watching Thistle with shrewd eyes, eyes that said he knew exactly what they were thinking. A slight, imperceptible shake of the head, and Thistle had fallen back into the line. Great Bay. They'd be looking for another Temple, another Giant, another Mask. Because they were just going to put themselves in danger over and over. Thistle looked dully over the sights. They whistled at Zymni. "Stay with the group, alright? Don't wander off alone." They.... They wanted to be alone. And so they volunteered to check the Spider's House. Bugs and spiders were a part of nature. They didn't scare Thistle. And if they died? Well. They'll see Amora in the next loop. Edited March 13 by Doc12 1
Myst He/Him Posted March 13 Posted March 13 Kieran had always liked the bay. He’d never known there was a mask here though, that certainly tainted things. And, if previous experiences were anything to go on, this wouldn’t be around for much longer. The only things in common for the other two masks were them, losing the mask, and destruction. He was not looking forwards to the mask, especially since Amora had left. That meant it was up to him to protect everyone here… and he couldn’t be everywhere. “I just hope no one gets hurt waiting for me to try and save them” He’d lost people to that before. 1
Araris Valerian he/him Posted March 13 Posted March 13 45 minutes ago, Doc12 said: What about the option where they're e/e? Archer and TJ can't both be elim. Then there's nothing to worry about. We have 2 shots left to hit 1 elim. I was considering worst-case scenarios so that we could avoid a loss this turn.
Divergent He/Him Posted March 14 Posted March 14 1 hour ago, Doc12 said: I have some questions about your assertions. Firstly, I tried looking for your reasons that Hael is village, and from what i can gather it is because TUM and Hael were allowed to tie D3A, and you think elims wouldn't have let that happen because losing one elim then would have lost them the loop. I don't think that's as strong a reason as you think it is, because it wasn't truly a tie, as the rupee count if the elims were keeping track was the deciding factor. Hael wasn't in as much danger as he seemed. I initially dismissed Hael for the same reasons I dismissed Twin/Hoid, in that they just weren't active enough to really read, but from the two Hael has been more active and present. I still think Twin/Hoid is more possible, I just question your confidence. Secondly, on whether I bussed Burnt. As you observed, I kept my vote on Burnt when she was tied with Dive. In the night, I went through the vote switches and wanted to vote Burnt again, so I was surprised in the morning when everyone seemed to have move on. I tried to restart the vote but it just wasn't gaining any traction. You could see it as bussing, but my vote has been consistent with my analyses. Lastly, there wasn't really a resistance to Burnt/Coco wagon. I'd point out there's also been very little attempt at counterwagon today. If Burnt and Coco were both e! and one of the elims is Twin, then its probable that the remaining elim was forced to let it happen. Not sure if you were just responding to Drake on this part, but I have never thought that Hael becomes auto-cleared from D3A. As you mentioned, it wasn't truly a tie since ties are broken via a determined mechanic, and there wasn't even a tie up until the last hour, I believe, when Hoid added the third vote on Hael And yeah, I agree that you pushing for Burnt again the next day does add points to you being v plus also being one of the first among the alive in Loop 2 to mention the Archer/Coco suspicion. I will say though, I'm still confused with the whole mask situation and if Burnt did actually just get it and both of you and Mist are simply village. Hopefully, that is the case, but until then, I think I'll remain having a cautious eye Let me know if I need to switch my vote to TwinStorm. I'll probably be around around rollover
Doc12 Posted March 14 Posted March 14 50 minutes ago, Divergent said: Not sure if you were just responding to Drake on this part, but I have never thought that Hael becomes auto-cleared from D3A. As you mentioned, it wasn't truly a tie since ties are broken via a determined mechanic, and there wasn't even a tie up until the last hour, I believe, when Hoid added the third vote on Hael Ah, yes, I quoted you because I agreed with your argument that any attempt to save Burnt and Coco would have been seen as suspicious when Drake was wondering why there was no resistance to potentially a wealthy e/e wagon. I meant to incorporate your quote into my post but I forgot..
DrakeMarshall he/him Posted March 14 Posted March 14 2 hours ago, Doc12 said: I have some questions about your assertions. Yeah well me too, that's kinda the point 2 hours ago, Doc12 said: Firstly, I tried looking for your reasons that Hael is village, and from what i can gather it is because TUM and Hael were allowed to tie D3A, and you think elims wouldn't have let that happen because losing one elim then would have lost them the loop. I don't think that's as strong a reason as you think it is, because it wasn't truly a tie, as the rupee count if the elims were keeping track was the deciding factor. Hael wasn't in as much danger as he seemed. I initially dismissed Hael for the same reasons I dismissed Twin/Hoid, in that they just weren't active enough to really read, but from the two Hael has been more active and present. I still think Twin/Hoid is more possible, I just question your confidence. Do we believe the elims 1) knew about the tie mechanics at this time, and more importantly 2) didn't feel threatened at all? Because my point isn't just that a tie existed, it was that the whole day felt highly lukewarm and shrug. And the votes were very stable, with Hael in the top 2 wagons for most of the cycle. You can reason ex post facto that the final tally was a tie and Hael would win it, but I don't think the elims knew what the final tally would be for most of the day. The elims had already intentionally committed to fewer kills, which raised the stakes on their winning L1. No matter how I slice it, I think they'd have cared more if Hael was an elim, and we wouldn't have had such a low tempo day. I will also note that Hoid Slayer (replaced by TwinStorm) was the one who tied up Hael and TUM after someone else had voted TUM. I still don't think the elims could see the future, so I think this a legitimate unpairing interaction. And I find bussing less likely on that first loop, due to the aforementioned raised stakes on winning the first loop. So I am not very inclined to accept an elim team with both TwinStorm and Hael in it. Even if we set aside the fact that padding an elim team theory with the least active suspects (for whom there are relatively few reasons both for and against) probably isn't the right answer. To the best of my knowledge, Hael is just village. Sorry. With respect, this is not the way to get me to reconsider my PoE. Try again. I know that sounds snarky but it's a genuine request if you're village: come up with a better explanation of the facts, that doesn't involve you being evil, because I don't think this is it. 2 hours ago, Doc12 said: Lastly, there wasn't really a resistance to Burnt/Coco wagon. I'd point out there's also been very little attempt at counterwagon today. If Burnt and Coco were both e! and one of the elims is Twin, then its probable that the remaining elim was forced to let it happen. I suppose I'm still just surprised there wasn't any pivot attempt. I think the elims would still have options in this world. Coco could try to push you. Or Burnt could insist that resolving in Burnt/Mist took precedence and I think I actually would've village read her slightly more for it. None of that happened. I'm actually very willing to entertain the possibility that Coco/Burnt is E/E. Or heck I think Coco could still be evil even if Burnt is village, although Burnt/Coco pairing makes some sense. I'm just not willing to bank on that fact, when the above casts what is imo pretty reasonable doubt on it. I don't trust anyone saying we should proceed on the assumption that Coco was evil. That's not a good way to approach a flipless game. I dunno. Burnt/Coco/TwinStorm kinda feels too easy. We should probably make sure we aren't totally fumbling it in the world where Coco is in fact evil, but I think most of our energy this cycle should go towards figuring out how to avoid losing if Coco was village.
|TJ| he/him Posted March 14 Posted March 14 Hmm, perhaps I mis-remembered but I thought Burnt voted Mistfallen in D2B. I'll try to be awake for rollover but I might doze off >> I'm getting paranoid that we've gone horribly wrong, but still the path we're taking makes logical sense. The only other team which would be possible is Mistfallen/Doc and most of us believe Mistfallen is more village than Burnt. 3 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said: We should probably make sure we aren't totally fumbling it in the world where Coco is in fact evil, but I think most of our energy this cycle should go towards figuring out how to avoid losing if Coco was village. If you are willing to bank on Hael being village (I agree with you here, I do think he is quite moderately village as well), then from our PoE, just [Coco, TwinStorm, Hael] is winning because we had concluded 2 at least elims in [Coco, TwinStorm, Hael].
DrakeMarshall he/him Posted March 14 Posted March 14 (edited) 5 minutes ago, |TJ| said: I'm getting paranoid that we've gone horribly wrong, but still the path we're taking makes logical sense. yeah... 5 minutes ago, |TJ| said: If you are willing to bank on Hael being village (I agree with you here, I do think he is quite moderately village as well), then from our PoE, just [Coco, TwinStorm, Hael] is winning because we had concluded 2 at least elims in [Coco, TwinStorm, Hael]. even though I think I'm probably wrong about stuff I do think PoE pretty strongly points to TwinStorm at this point edit: er, what as the reasoning for concluding 2 elims in that pool of 3? I don't recall anything like that but there's been a lot of posts it might've gotten lost in the noise Edited March 14 by DrakeMarshall
Divergent He/Him Posted March 14 Posted March 14 14 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said: Do we believe the elims 1) knew about the tie mechanics at this time, For this, it was re-established on D2A near the end of it (which was acknowledged by both Burnt and Doc) And Night 3A, Hael references knowing how the tie mechanics work post-vote So, most people likely did know by D3A how ties would be resolved
|TJ| he/him Posted March 14 Posted March 14 7 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said: edit: er, what as the reasoning for concluding 2 elims in that pool of 3? I don't recall anything like that but there's been a lot of posts it might've gotten lost in the noise 3/4 in [Coco, Burnt, Doc, Hael, TwinStorn] assuming v!Mistfallen Exactly 1 in [Burnt, Doc] as the holder of Stone Mask assuming Burnt/Doc not e/e Results in 2/3 in [Coco, Hael, TwinStorm] I know there are 2 assumptions, but they are relatively reasonable for the path we are taking, I feel.
Divergent He/Him Posted March 14 Posted March 14 @DrakeMarshall If there was an elim between Doc and Mist, who do you think it would be and why?
Doc12 Posted March 14 Posted March 14 4 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said: Do we believe the elims 1) knew about the tie mechanics at this time, and more importantly 2) didn't feel threatened at all? Because my point isn't just that a tie existed, it was that the whole day felt highly lukewarm and shrug. And the votes were very stable, with Hael in the top 2 wagons for most of the cycle. You can reason ex post facto that the final tally was a tie and Hael would win it, but I don't think the elims knew what the final tally would be for most of the day. The elims had already intentionally committed to fewer kills, which raised the stakes on their winning L1. No matter how I slice it, I think they'd have cared more if Hael was an elim, and we wouldn't have had such a low tempo day. With respect, this is not the way to get me to reconsider my PoE. Try again. I know that sounds snarky but it's a genuine request if you're village: come up with a better explanation of the facts, that doesn't involve you being evil, because I don't think this is it. I suppose I'm still just surprised there wasn't any pivot attempt. I think the elims would still have options in this world. Coco could try to push you. Or Burnt could insist that resolving in Burnt/Mist took precedence and I think I actually would've village read her slightly more for it. None of that happened. I'm actually very willing to entertain the possibility that Coco/Burnt is E/E. Or heck I think Coco could still be evil even if Burnt is village, although Burnt/Coco pairing makes some sense. I'm just not willing to bank on that fact, when the above casts what is imo pretty reasonable doubt on it. I don't trust anyone saying we should proceed on the assumption that Coco was evil. That's not a good way to approach a flipless game. I dunno. Burnt/Coco/TwinStorm kinda feels too easy. We should probably make sure we aren't totally fumbling it in the world where Coco is in fact evil, but I think most of our energy this cycle should go towards figuring out how to avoid losing if Coco was village. I mean, I knew about the tie mechanic then, pretty sure someone called me out loop 1 when I tried to create a tie and someone - Mist, probably - reminded me that there were no ties in this game. As to tempo, I personally felt that D3s of both loops were fairly low tempo, just because of how many players were still active. L2D3 had Coco kind of leading most of the day. I even tried shaking it up by proposing a counterwagon on Stick, which I suppose Burnt and Archer took me up on end of day. Was that more of the response you expected to see? I'm not arguing per se that Hael is evil, I suppose I was more trying to understand how firm your belief was, when my impression of Hael is that he's here sometimes and has not contributed that much in terms of social reads and all that. And I understand both you and Araris saying not to bank on Coco being evil. If Coco is village, then my solve of Coco/Burnt/Twin/Archer doesn't make sense. I'm just starting my solve from Burnt being evil. Coco being also e! makes the Scents Gambit make sense to me. From that, Twinstorm/Hael is the third, and I'm assuming one in the dead pool, which to me is Archer.
Divergent He/Him Posted March 14 Posted March 14 @Doc12 Wanted to ask you, what made you pick Bunny Loop during Loop 2? And I think you mentioned this already, but I can't find it, what mask did you choose this Loop to try to bid and why?
Doc12 Posted March 14 Posted March 14 (edited) Thistle came out of the Spider House holding the hand of a little Zora child. The Spider House was... well-named. Skulltulas in every corner, creaking and rattling sounds echoing through the entire place, and then... soft crying. They'd found the little Zora hiding in the library, and coaxed her out with some sweets that they had for Zymni. Now they just needed to get her to someone responsible. "Has anyone seen Coliver?" Thistle asked, scanning the party. "Little one might feel safer seeing another Zora." Confused looks and shrugs. A murmur of worry. Kieran tightened his grip on his sword. Thistle frowned. "Oh." They weren't the only one with lost people... Glancing around, they caught sight of Ouae. He was a bit eccentric, but they noticed the child brighten upon spotting him too. "Oaue?" Thistle called, taking the child over. "This little one says she saw Gerudo ghost pirates, and she's really frightened. Do you think you can take care of her? Put some food in her belly?" Gerudo Ghost Pirates... As far as Thistle knew, the Gerudo were all in the Ikana. Flying, see-through Gerudo pirates? Shaking their head, they went back to Kieran, figuring he was the best person to report this to. @Mistfallen Soldier @Archer ----------- 10 minutes ago, Divergent said: @Doc12 Wanted to ask you, what made you pick Bunny Loop during Loop 2? And I think you mentioned this already, but I can't find it, what mask did you choose this Loop to try to bid and why? I got postmaster loop 1. Bunny was the logical second choice if I was going for more rupees. I did not bid for masks D1. Ash asked me to get Keaton N1, something I cannot prove I have until tomorrow. Edited March 14 by Doc12 2
Divergent He/Him Posted March 14 Posted March 14 4 minutes ago, Doc12 said: I got postmaster loop 1. Bunny was the logical second choice if I was going for more rupees. I did not bid for masks D1. Ash asked me to get Keaton N1, something I cannot prove I have until tomorrow. What was your reason for not bidding on any mask on D1?
Wonko the Sane he/him Posted March 14 Posted March 14 @Doc12 I don't necessarily put TOO much stock in a v!Coco/e!Burnt world, but I'm focused on it because it's one of our biggest possible loss conditions right now; and it's not implausible. So I want the second place behind Burnt to be someone who makes sense in that world. However, I'm not going to leave my vote where it's useless. Doc. Twinstorm. I'm fine with a Twin exe. As others have pointed out, Twin is a valid target in a lot of different possible worlds.
Amanuensis he/him Posted March 14 Author Posted March 14 Just over 15 minutes remain in the Day to vote and RP (6) Burnt: Drake, Araris, TJ, Archer, Divergent, Mistfallen, (5) Twin: Doc, Warheit, Stick, Hael, Wonko, (1) Mistfallen: Burnt,
Recommended Posts