Doc12 Posted March 13 Posted March 13 1 hour ago, Mistfallen Soldier said: You could always brute force it(if you know how to do that) Do not know, and also I'd just like to know the right way anyway I think I feel pretty comfortable that Burnt is evil more than Mist. Drake pointed out something that I agreed with, in that for someone who caught an elim, Burnt let it go way too easily while Mist was fighting her. The Coco thing I'm now confused about. I thought the whole reason people pivoted to Coco last cycle was because TJ thought e! Burnt/Mist were drawing attention so e!Coco could buy a mask. It made the Scents claim gambit make sense. How does V!Coco fit into this? My elim team right now is Coco/Burnt/Archer/Hael or Twin, based on how Coco and Archer are paired, and the way that the Burnt/Mist debate takes our attention off the quieter players. If v!Coco, then what was the point of Burnt outing herself?
The Unknown Medallion he/him Posted March 13 Posted March 13 2 hours ago, Mistfallen Soldier said: That’s why we’re going Twin as back-up. That way if Burnt has the mask equipped we’ll exe twin Know, I guess I'm just iffy on who’s Burnt's teammate. Twin makes enough sense I guess, I was largely reacting to the previous votecount with you at number two, but looking back I think Twin is 2nd now 1 hour ago, Doc12 said: Do not know, and also I'd just like to know the right way anyway I think I feel pretty comfortable that Burnt is evil more than Mist. Drake pointed out something that I agreed with, in that for someone who caught an elim, Burnt let it go way too easily while Mist was fighting her. The Coco thing I'm now confused about. I thought the whole reason people pivoted to Coco last cycle was because TJ thought e! Burnt/Mist were drawing attention so e!Coco could buy a mask. It made the Scents claim gambit make sense. How does V!Coco fit into this? My elim team right now is Coco/Burnt/Archer/Hael or Twin, based on how Coco and Archer are paired, and the way that the Burnt/Mist debate takes our attention off the quieter players. If v!Coco, then what was the point of Burnt outing herself? It's something I've noticed, in flipless games, players always assume dead players are village, no matter how good of reason they had to exe them
Divergent He/Him Posted March 13 Posted March 13 Hi I'm busy for this cycle, but I'll try to find time within the next 12 hours or so to catch up
The Unknown Medallion he/him Posted March 13 Posted March 13 11 minutes ago, Divergent said: Hi I'm busy for this cycle, but I'll try to find time within the next 12 hours or so to catch up You should just ask the elim doc for a summary tbh
Myst He/Him Posted March 13 Posted March 13 Kieran looked over their group. First Amora had left-one of the only combat ready people here- and then Coliver disappeared. He didn’t know when, or where to, Coliver just… wasn’t there anymore. What made it worse was that Coliver had a plan, a way for them to get the mask. And Kieran was willing to trust that. Something kept keeping Coliver away. Every time. “Has anyone else noticed how Coliver keeps drifting off before we get the masks? And each time he seems to be exited to get the mask, and has a plan…. And then he’s gone.” He looked at the sky, into the clouds, “I’m not sure what I’m saying, it’s just that it seems like something is keeping him away” Kieran got on the ground, stretching out on his back, still staring at the sky. “This entire time I’ve been feeling like something’s off. First that Ap just happens to have a flute that lets us try again, and how we keep losing the mask, and now Coliver…” He paused, “just, something about this entire thing is weird, but I’m not sure what” 1
Araris Valerian he/him Posted March 13 Posted March 13 3 hours ago, Doc12 said: How does V!Coco fit into this? My elim team right now is Coco/Burnt/Archer/Hael or Twin, based on how Coco and Archer are paired, and the way that the Burnt/Mist debate takes our attention off the quieter players. If v!Coco, then what was the point of Burnt outing herself? I can only see v!coco if we have e!TJ. In that world, Burnt outs herself, then TJ diverts to coco while Burnt grabs the Stone Mask. Then D2 the village votes for the outed e!Burnt and the elims hammer the secondary vote (they have 3 votes to do this with) onto a villager, winning the game.
DrakeMarshall he/him Posted March 13 Posted March 13 (edited) Ok well here are some thoughts - There are at least 3 elims in Burnt, Mist, Coco, Doc, Hael, TwinStorm - There is at least one elim in Burnt/Mist - Burnt and Mist aren’t E/E - Burnt is more sus than Mist - Hael looks village from D3A - Burnt and Coco look unpaired, as pairing them implies that the elims had zero thread control yesterday - Burnt and Doc look unpaired, because Doc put the Burnt wagon in the lead during L2 and kept his vote there until the end of the turn All of these are sensible inferences to me but they cannot all be true. They are contradictory. Any coherent worldview involves deciding which one(s) of these things is actually wrong. Some of you have already taken clearly defined stances on these issues, but I think it’s worth enumerating the reasonable options. The first 2 absolutely must be true. so to me it’s really which of the remaining 5 statements do we decide is bad “Burnt and Mist aren’t E/E” saying they are E/E feels like elim propaganda to me tbh but if we allow that to be true then the elim team can be Burnt / Mist / TwinStorm ”Burnt is more sus than Mist” There are reasons Mist is suspicious, I think. I just happen to think Burnt is more suspicious. If this is wrong, then the elim team could be Mist / Coco / Doc or Mist / Coco / TwinStorm or Mist / TwinStorm / Doc “Hael looks village from D3A” I still think he does. Plus it’s like what Archer said, padding out your team with less active players is not the answer. But if Hael is evil, then we could have Burnt / Hael / TwinStorm “Burnt and Coco look unpaired” If we think it was an E/E pair of wagons yesterday and the elims rolled over, then it could be Burnt / Coco / TwinStorm ”Burnt and Doc look unpaired” If Doc did a little bussing or if Divergent is also evil, we can have Burnt / Doc / TwinStorm this is the one I think it is. note that TwinStorm literally has to be evil unless multiple of these inferences are wrong. (edit: unless the elim team is specifically Mist / Coco / Doc and only that elim team) Though there are many more worlds where more than one of the inferences are incorrect. And I think it’s decently likely this is the case, it would just take way too long to talk about all those worlds. Most of them seem individually very unlikely even if the net probability of all them combined might be high. Edited March 13 by DrakeMarshall
Araris Valerian he/him Posted March 13 Posted March 13 45 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said: “Burnt and Coco look unpaired” If we think it was an E/E pair of wagons yesterday and the elims rolled over, then it could be Burnt / Coco / TwinStorm This has been what I've been focusing on. I think both possible versions of the e/v split here have implications about who in the dead doc is elim (Archer/TJ). Worst case here is probably coco/Burnt are v/v, and Burnt being honest about not having the Stone Mask. We kinda just lose this one from exeing Burnt. Next worst case is e/v and Burnt is elim with Stone Mask. I think this has extremely strong implications for TJ as elim, and probably the others are Doc/Twinstorm, especially since it sounds like Doc could have bought a purple mask? I haven't really been following the cash flow. Honestly I think Mist could be elim as well in this world, see my earlier posts this cycle. If they are e/v and Burnt doesn't have the Stone Mask, we are sitting kind comfy. I'm not really sure that this is a likely outcome though. If they are v/v and Burnt actually has the Mask but is lying, then Mist is elim, probably teamed with Doc and Twinstorm. So Twinstorm as the secondary exe seems like it's our best option here, really.
Amanuensis he/him Posted March 13 Author Posted March 13 (edited) Sorry this took me so long folks; it's not much but all I have the spoons for right now. I let myself get behind on quite a few college assignments so my time (and then brain power after) has been severely limited. I hope this scene helps y'all get some creative RP going. Feel free to explore the area and investigate. You are welcome to improvise but if you want, you can send me a PM to ask what your character might discover if they do X action, such as searching the items scattered across the beach for clues or loot (if your character is not against a bit of opportunistic theft), and then you can RP the results. Happy Mask Salesman Quote The sun came up over the water all at once. One moment the sky was grey and the next it was orange, the light scattering flat across the surface of the Great Bay in long shifting lanes that made the water look like hammered copper. After two loops of humid swamps and mountain snow, the warmth of it on their faces stopped several people mid-step. Even Ap, who had been setting the pace in her Goron form, slowed. The beach stretched ahead of them in both directions, broad and pale, the sand still cool from the night. It should have been empty. At this hour, on a festival morning with every soul in Termina either in Clock Town or fleeing from it, it should have been exactly that — empty sand, empty water, the birds doing whatever birds did before anyone arrived to disturb them. Instead: towels. Parasols, striped and solid, some of them still open and leaning in the morning breeze. Picnic baskets with their lids thrown back. A net strung between two posts with a ball still caught in it. Sandals in pairs. A child's bucket on its side with sand spilling out. Bags and wrappings and the general debris of people who had stepped away for a moment and fully intended to return. The birds had found all of it. Gulls and terns worked through the baskets in loud rotating arguments, spilling things, fighting over scraps that had been sitting long enough to spoil. A larger bird stood on top of an overturned cooler and watched the smaller ones work with the composure of something waiting for the chaos to finish so it could have whatever was left. The Happy Mask Salesman stopped walking. He stood at the edge of the beach with his canvas bag over one shoulder and his striped towel folded over his arm and looked at all of it — the abandoned things, the fighting birds, the open baskets going bad in the warming air — and said nothing for a full minute. He turned left, then right, then looked out at the water. The Spider House sat further up the beach, half-buried in the cliff face, its entrance framed by so many posted warnings and hand-lettered signs that the door itself was barely visible behind them. DANGER. DO NOT ENTER. CURSED — THIS MEANS YOU. The front door was left ajar, which suggested that the signs had not been entirely persuasive to everyone who'd read them. Whether those people had come back out was harder to determine from this distance. Closer, at the entrance of the coastal path, the Fisherman's Hut leaned against the rock with the settled posture of a building that has been leaning against that particular rock for decades and intended to continue for many more. A light was on inside but no shadows move across the windows. Out on the water, floating on its pontoons in the middle of the bay, the Marine Research Lab's dome caught the morning light — and from the top of it, a red light pulsed. Slow, steady, the universal rhythm of a signal being sent by someone who very much wanted it to be received. The Happy Mask Salesman looked at the Research Lab. He looked at the Fisherman's Hut. He looked at the Spider House and its catastrophe of warning signs. He looked down at his swimwear, and at the towel on his arm, and at the beach that was not, by any reasonable standard, in a state to receive them. "Ah," he said. He was quiet another moment. "Well then." He set the canvas bag down and straightened up. "It appears the Great Bay has its own complications, possibly independent of ours." He surveyed the beach once more, with the expression of a man who had been looking forward to something and was now being professional about not having it. "Which means the first order of business is information, and information requires investigation. Someone should be in the Fisherman's Hut. Someone should be in the Marine Research Lab — though given that light, they may need assistance as much as we do. And the Spider House —" he paused, looking at the signs, "— I don't know why someone would, but there might even people in there." He turned to face the group. "We won't reach the Great Bay Temple without help from someone who knows these waters. The temple is deep, and the bay is not hospitable to people who arrive unprepared." He looked at the abandoned beach once more, the gulls screaming at each other over a spilled basket of fruit. "Split up. Cover the area. Look for clues to find out what happened here, or better yet, find someone who can tell us and then help us reach what we came for." He picked up his bag and shouldered it, countless rupees jingling like singing crystals among a collection of his most expensive and powerful Masks. "I had hoped for a somewhat warmer welcome," he added, looking out at the sun on the water — genuinely beautiful, at least, eerie though it all might be. Particularly without that ugly, angry moon glaring down at them. "But here we are." Edited March 13 by Amanuensis 4
Amanuensis he/him Posted March 13 Author Posted March 13 (5) Burnt: Mistfallen, Drake, Araris, TJ, Stick, (2) Twin: Doc, Warheit, (1) Mistfallen: Burnt, (1) Doc: Wonko, 4
Myst He/Him Posted March 13 Posted March 13 So far I’m good with the Vote count. Especially since it leaves itself open to hammering. In the case of hammering(where I or someone else gets hammered) the people doing the hammering have to be Elims. And so yes, they’d exe a village, but we’d know exactly who they are.
Archer he/him Posted March 13 Posted March 13 Burnt I know Burnt is often on around rollover, but I do like the implications of them being constantly in the lead to force them to equip Stone, even if we hammer elsewhere. My vote is staying put. I don't think I can read TJ accurately from my position, but they're the obvious Burnt teammate. Part of me wonders if they were rupee counting on their behalf because we're right for the wrong reason. But I'm committed to voting outside the deadpool, even if it's a coinflip. If you want to believe in Coco/TS, they defended them hard on D3B. 12 hours ago, Doc12 said: Also @Archer I got your caesar cipher last loop but I'm stumped on this one Can I have a clue on how to even start Try every third word. Three's company, after all
Divergent He/Him Posted March 13 Posted March 13 On 3/12/2026 at 11:49 AM, Mistfallen Soldier said: Well, potentially Coco, though she said she missed. If you want a list of people who could’ve. It’s easier for a list of people who couldn’t. Doc got bunny Ash, Wahr, and Tum we can exclude Araris got blast Archer got bremen Im excluding me because I didn’t get one(you don’t have to) Wonko got postman I don’t remember who got Dongoro(I believe wahr might have?) Twin didn’t have enough rupees Burnt(this requires her not to) TJ(didn’t have enough rupees) Could: Hael, Coco, Stick, Dive, Drake. thats 5 people, I think, who could have gotten it. I did make this list based on info in my head so it’s possible I got something wrong. But in answer to your question. I think maybe Hael the potentially thing that could happen is Bremen cancel of your vote, and then since Burnt has Stone that results in my vote on her being removed, as well as your vote on her resulting in all three votes being removed, but that’s not really something we can change(I think) I wasn't eligible to get any masks at all Loop 2 due to having been executed on Day 1 On 3/12/2026 at 12:10 PM, Haelbarde said: In case it helps, these are my earnings across the game. Loop A D1: 3, N1: 5, D2: 4, N2: 2, D3: 2, N3: 4; Total: 20 rupees Loop B D1: 6, N1: 2, D2: 1, N2: 0, D3: 0, N3: 0; Total: 9 rupees Loop C D1: 6, N1: 0; Total: 6 rupees So with the 10 initial rupees, 39 rupees by start of Loop C, or 45 rupees at start of N1-C. Now, I feel like I could have argued more rupees out of Aman, so if you wanted to verify those numbers against my posts, you might find that there's some posts that could potentially have earned rupees that didn't end up earning me any. The only PMs I've sent this game were the three last night. You didn't post at all in the last 3 cycles of Loop 2 or did you post, but they weren't counted?
Divergent He/Him Posted March 13 Posted March 13 On 3/12/2026 at 2:52 PM, DrakeMarshall said: (Or maybe Coco really was evil, it's possible, I just have my doubts. Especially because that would mean there was no significant pushback yesterday against two wagons on wealthy elims, and I find that hard to explain away. But it remains possible the elims have been playing more passively in the thread this entire time and we've just lost multiple loops to friendly fire.) I think the explanation would be that these two have already been strongly pushed for for at least two days and that it has been successfully derailed. With the advent of a new loop, which revealed that the elims won it, I think most of the suspicions falls on those two and trying to derail it, especially in a significant way, would have just looked suspicious. 11 hours ago, The Unknown Medallion said: You should just ask the elim doc for a summary tbh Oh I will, thanks for the reminder
Divergent He/Him Posted March 13 Posted March 13 Burnt Overall, I think Burnt is more suspicious than Mist, and from rereading the game the previous night, I thought that Mist read as very villagery (the secret code interactions, the strong assertion of being able to prove Doc is village mechanically in an earlier cycle, calling out people for lurking/not responding). Basically, the gameplay has been not only solve-y, but also that it came across as genuine and not faked. I'm still very uncertain of who between Hael and TwinStorm is elim. There's very little content of them to go through and in the previous cycles, most of the time they didn't really offer any reads or vote in a significant push. I'm leaning Twin atm though, mostly based on Hoid's behavior while he was playing and the distancing that I felt was there between Hoid, Coco, and Archer
|TJ| he/him Posted March 13 Posted March 13 I am slightly busy for maybe 4-6 hours, so I will have time to re-read Burnt before the EoT, but a food for thought is - If Burnt was suspicious of Mistfallen in Day 2-B (need to confirm upon re-read), why would she scan Coco in Night 2-B?? I think when the scan occurred is also quite convenient and as equally important as who was scanned. The fact that N3B was when she claims to have scanned Mistfallen speaks volumes because it does mean they were hard-pushing for a victory this Loop.
Divergent He/Him Posted March 13 Posted March 13 10 minutes ago, |TJ| said: I am slightly busy for maybe 4-6 hours, so I will have time to re-read Burnt before the EoT, but a food for thought is - If Burnt was suspicious of Mistfallen in Day 2-B (need to confirm upon re-read), why would she scan Coco in Night 2-B?? I think when the scan occurred is also quite convenient and as equally important as who was scanned. The fact that N3B was when she claims to have scanned Mistfallen speaks volumes because it does mean they were hard-pushing for a victory this Loop. I did a quick scan of D2B and N2B, and Burnt didn't post any reads at all. On D3B, her PoE was TwinStorm, Hael, Coco, and Stick, so the N2 scan is consistent with her read, but that could always have been planned for In the same post too, she mentions liking Mist wanting to PM spam to set of PMs
Archer he/him Posted March 13 Posted March 13 Not to defend potential elims, but scanning your peripheral reads is the correct move. The elims wouldn't have their most suspected teammate submit the kill. The good news for us today is that Stone!Burnt loses most tiebreakers, having spent their money. The bad news is that a 4 elim counterwagon, plus Bremen, beats our secondary wagon. So they can hammer.
Amanuensis he/him Posted March 13 Author Posted March 13 Just under 10 hours remain in the Day to vote and RP (7) Burnt: Mistfallen, Drake, Araris, TJ, Stick, Archer, Divergent, (2) Twin: Doc, Warheit, (1) Mistfallen: Burnt, (1) Doc: Wonko,
Araris Valerian he/him Posted March 13 Posted March 13 1 hour ago, Archer said: The bad news is that a 4 elim counterwagon, plus Bremen, beats our secondary wagon. So they can hammer. 3 elims, since the wearer of the Stone Mask doesn’t get a vote. And if we are actually worried about an elim hammer, that assume coco is village, which IMO makes TJ elim.
Myst He/Him Posted March 13 Posted March 13 Twinstorm currently we have a pretty big train on Burnt, which I like, but we still need to make sure the second place exe still has enough votes.
Stick. she/her Posted March 13 Posted March 13 hey guys If coco is v, elims will probs hammer on some villa last minute especially if they have bremen, bc it won’t matter if they get outed at that point (they might try shenanigans without outing themselves even if coco is e) so can we decide on exactly how many ppl we want on both the leading and the cw train and make it happen now, so we can try and ensure a potential hammer doesn’t happen also all of us shd try to be on at rollover for this reason, so if there’s any unexpected vote movements we can try and counter em (idk if I can be on, I can try but ideally at least the conf villas should be)
Archer he/him Posted March 13 Posted March 13 (edited) Araris makes a good point that we don't need to heed E!Burnt's vote. I'll just discard it and assume 3 elim votes to 10 villager votes. 5v:5v:3e is optimal distribution. Even though Burnt has single digit rupees, I think TwinStorm still loses that tie. Going to 6v:4v:3e makes Bremen effective. Hammering can upset this delicate balance as well, as people switch their votes out. The optimal play is probably to slap a few votes on Burnt for information gathering, then to exe TwinStorm with overwhelming force. If Bremen is in village hands, we can police EOD and try to counter the hammers. Edit: I forgot we need to force her to equip it. 5/5 and being okay with TS being the lead candidate is the best bet. Edited March 13 by Archer
Amanuensis he/him Posted March 13 Author Posted March 13 This has been clarified before but think I should again: - Owned Masks count for the vote tie breaker equal to their rupee value. Otherwise people with the best power roles would likely lose most ties. - The rupee value is only lost when the Mask is lost, either due to it breaking from exhausting all its uses or via a Loop reset
Through the living Wahr He/Him Posted March 13 Posted March 13 2 hours ago, Stick. said: also all of us shd try to be on at rollover for this reason, so if there’s any unexpected vote movements we can try and counter em (idk if I can be on, I can try but ideally at least the conf villas should be) I will try it but you are asking me to stay up til 3AM, I will try it but I will not lie, thats a good bud later than my usual sleeptime so theres a decent chance that I will fall asleep.
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