DrakeMarshall he/him Posted February 28 Posted February 28 Squircle gripped the odd mask with both hands, staring into its eyes dubiously. It didn't much look like a dragon, despite the Happy Mask Merchant's assurances that this was indeed an authentic "Drake" mask... Still. If there was even a chance it would restore him to his true form... Could he afford to pass that up? Well, what's the worst that could happen. It's not like it would be permanent. If the mask didn't work, he could always take it off. Squircle donned the Drake mask. Immediately his posture and mannerisms changed, almost like he was a different person. He had not turned into a dragon, and he felt a swell of disappointment at that, but something stifled the disappointment almost instantly. Curiously, he found he didn't want to remove the mask. The words leapt out of his throat unbidden. "hey @Stick. how did it feel to rand evil" there I hope ur happy smh thunder-stealer 2
Stick. she/her Posted February 28 Posted February 28 It feels great cuz odalwa’s mask lets me murder 2x during the day but on the other hand my teammate Squircle just got outed edit: Mistfallen surprise attack @Amanuensis cuz editing in a vote
Archer he/him Posted February 28 Posted February 28 2 hours ago, coco.pudding said: @Archer Can I have a baked good for my claim? "Of course, dear! I'm so glad you trust me with your-" Ouae nearly fainted from shock. "Dubious friends deserve dubious food. Eat up." Spoiler 3 hours ago, Wonko the Sane said: Why? That's the one mask that gives us relatively little information now, but gives the elims a prime target to reduce the Rupees available to the Village. Why not offer your fine meal to the Bremen mask user? It's alignment indicative. I'll show you the math momentarily. 1 hour ago, coco.pudding said: Yeah but we all lowkey assumed they could be elim. I thought there might be a possibility of them being elim, realizing they couldn’t be active enough to do that well, and then leaving. So that’s why I decided to block you, just in case. Especially since we know there are others *cough* Hoid Slayer *cough* who are “inactive” but actually not really. But dw, I think based on the information both Mistfallen and I were able to get, you’re probably good, and based on your posts since then (keep in mind this was right after you had joined) I’m mainly getting village from you. Coco saying the quiet part out loud makes them indisputably village in my eyes. I've been trying not to meta game pinch hitting that way.
coco.pudding she/they Posted February 28 Posted February 28 4 minutes ago, Archer said: "Of course, dear! I'm so glad you trust me with your-" Ouae nearly fainted from shock. "Dubious friends deserve dubious food. Eat up." Aww thanks Amora takes the food rather cautiously, sniffing it before asking “Uh, are you sure this is safe to eat? You know what, never mind. I’m sure it’s fine, and I’ll uh-eat it later, I just had breakfast.”
Archer he/him Posted February 28 Posted February 28 Just now, coco.pudding said: Aww thanks Amora takes the food rather cautiously, sniffing it before asking “Uh, are you sure this is safe to eat? You know what, never mind. I’m sure it’s fine, and I’ll uh-eat it later, I just had breakfast.” Ouae glowered at them. "What, is your esophagus blocked? Is something preventing you from eating right now? I'm insulted you'd question my cooking - I'm a published recipe columnist! Thankfully the mail is running again so I can send my work back to The Paper." "Eat. Up."
Doc12 Posted February 28 Posted February 28 Alright, I did a quick skim over the last few days again, clearing all the people who died. Between Wonko, Archer, Dive and Mistfallen... It's funny because at the end of last loop I was very well inclined towards Mistfallen, who with their PM to me was very thorough and demonstrated a lot of effort to solve. Just that this loop they're very firm that I'm also cleared, which I'm not upset about, but confused about the strength of the read. This and the aborted suggestion of exeing a confirmed villager is making me doubt my read a little. Still. @Mistfallen Soldier Out of curiousity, you've told us why you're clearing me - do you also have a strong reason why you told me you trust Archer? Wonko, very much agreed that Mist is being erratic. Still, this seems too easy? Aside from Araris' vote everyone has voted on Mistfallen so far. I'm interested in starting a vote on either Archer or Wonko. From my notes on last loop, Archer has been more pushy with asks and claims and PM shenanigans. Wonko, to me, has felt more passive after D1. @Wonko the Sane what were things Mist did that felt off last loop? For other players... Hael, TJ, Burnt, Araris, and Coco. I never trust Burnt. Hael's shown to be following, and I don't think the tie last turn is as indicative as Mist thinks it is. Coco is here and shown to be very engaged. For their second game, they're really doing a good job of keeping up. Araris and Dive have some ongoing discussion? I thought Araris staying on Wahr was weird D2, but knowing now that Wahr was village, I don't know if e!Araris would have been so blatant in saying 'I hear you but my vote stays on you'. And TJ is present, I really don't have anything on him at all, other than them voting on Wahr D2. Hoid Slayer is annoying me for actively choosing to be here but also clearly not reading any rules Also welcome @DrakeMarshall! CD was for me in the background just talking about how he'd like to be exed so he could be hard cleared and doing RP, so I don't have a read, but hey, care to continue asking to be exed? Currently, to shake things up, I'll place a vote on Wonko. Interested in hearing their further analysis and thoughts on Mist and what they think the current strategy should be.
Ashbringer he/him Posted February 28 Posted February 28 Pain. Nothing. Music? Coliver blinked, just about to put a tray of drybread into the Goron family's oven. That wasn't... what... The confusion lasted a moment or two, before the memories - all of them - returned. Marton wasn't Marton. Not-Marton was a warrior. The town had burned. The people escaped. Makazi had too much blood over her hands. Someone asked her for water in the night. Something had hit the back of her head, hard. She'd been carried... she'd been... she'd been... she couldn't breathe... Coliver wasn't sure when she hit the floor. She'd at least had the wherewithal to not dive head first into the oven. But she was still down when Makazi tried to sneak in to steal a cookie. "Oh Moons, Col!" she heard, before she got a face full of a pitcher of water. Coliver sputtered, shaking her head, then realizing a bit more where she was and shutting the open oven. Had she burned herself? No, she was still wearing a mitt. On her right hand, at least. Her left was... Still clutching where there'd been a hole in her chest. 1
Myst He/Him Posted February 28 Posted February 28 3 minutes ago, Doc12 said: Alright, I did a quick skim over the last few days again, clearing all the people who died. Between Wonko, Archer, Dive and Mistfallen... It's funny because at the end of last loop I was very well inclined towards Mistfallen, who with their PM to me was very thorough and demonstrated a lot of effort to solve. Just that this loop they're very firm that I'm also cleared, which I'm not upset about, but confused about the strength of the read. This and the aborted suggestion of exeing a confirmed villager is making me doubt my read a little. Still. @Mistfallen Soldier Out of curiousity, you've told us why you're clearing me - do you also have a strong reason why you told me you trust Archer? Wonko, very much agreed that Mist is being erratic. Still, this seems too easy? Aside from Araris' vote everyone has voted on Mistfallen so far. I'm interested in starting a vote on either Archer or Wonko. From my notes on last loop, Archer has been more pushy with asks and claims and PM shenanigans. Wonko, to me, has felt more passive after D1. @Wonko the Sane what were things Mist did that felt off last loop? For other players... Hael, TJ, Burnt, Araris, and Coco. I never trust Burnt. Hael's shown to be following, and I don't think the tie last turn is as indicative as Mist thinks it is. Coco is here and shown to be very engaged. For their second game, they're really doing a good job of keeping up. Araris and Dive have some ongoing discussion? I thought Araris staying on Wahr was weird D2, but knowing now that Wahr was village, I don't know if e!Araris would have been so blatant in saying 'I hear you but my vote stays on you'. And TJ is present, I really don't have anything on him at all, other than them voting on Wahr D2. Hoid Slayer is annoying me for actively choosing to be here but also clearly not reading any rules Also welcome @DrakeMarshall! CD was for me in the background just talking about how he'd like to be exed so he could be hard cleared and doing RP, so I don't have a read, but hey, care to continue asking to be exed? Currently, to shake things up, I'll place a vote on Wonko. Interested in hearing their further analysis and thoughts on Mist and what they think the current strategy should be. Check out my convo with Dive at the end of page 1 today. That should explain it.
coco.pudding she/they Posted February 28 Posted February 28 “No, no, I’m just pretty full right now. And in a hurry. But uh, you’re not going to leave me alone, are you? I can tell.” She hesitantly takes a small bite off the edge, hiding her grimace, then gives a thumbs up. “Mm, yes, quite good. Thank you. I shall be going now.” And with that Amora is shoving the remaining food into her bag and rushing off down the street, still intent to find either people who remember the last few days or the Clock Ward commander. ———————— 13 minutes ago, Doc12 said: Hoid Slayer is annoying me for actively choosing to be here but also clearly not reading any rules Very much agreed on this. He’s kind of being active but not really doing anything useful. And he tied the vote D3 but didn’t seem to realize that wouldn’t matter? Idk if it’s actually anything to do with his alignment, but it’s a bit weird. I think Mistfallen is probably village, at least they’re leaning that way for me. I do agree they backed off the “let’s exe a confirmed person again so they can get a silver mask” thing pretty quickly, but I also don’t think that indicates they’re elim, I think that was just not a great idea and they realized that when others told them as much. I also think it feels really early to have such a big train going on someone who we all were saying is village during loop 1. When did things change? 1
Archer he/him Posted February 28 Posted February 28 (edited) L1D1, only Wonko and Mistfallen accumulated 10 extra rupees. (By the end of L1N1 Burnt, Divergent, maybe Coco, maybe Hael got to 10). [Discounting Wahr, TUO, and Ashbringer. Excluding confirmed Postman Doc.] Mistfallen has claimed the red Mask of Scents. Wonko likely got an unidentified red mask. Likely no one bought the Captain’s Hat, hence the silence. Of the blue masks, Coco claimed Bremen. Divergent claimed Don Gero. Doc had Postman’s Hat. The Bunny Hood is unclaimed. The elims could increase their odds of getting specific masks by stacking their votes and/or aiming for unpopular masks. Bremen and Don Gero would be their priorities, so giving themselves 40%/40%/0%/0% odds makes more sense than 20%/20%/20%/20%. Villager inactivity/incompetence likely increased their odds, but even if they had a 50% shot at two specific masks, they likely only got one. Odds of getting two were about 25%. So we can predict that there is, at most, one elim among Doc, Coco, Divergent, and Bunny-wearer. 50% of the time, they get no mask, so I’m inclined to leave this group alone. Likely three elims among: Araris TJ Honor’s Ghost/Stick Wonko Burnt Coder/Drake Hoid Slayer Mistfallen Hael (me) (My exe order is: Burnt, TJ, Stick, Araris, HS, Drake, Wonko, Hael, Mistfallen.) Edit: Reread my notes. HG had something I found villagery, so I'd move Stick closer to the trust side. Edited February 28 by Archer
Divergent He/Him Posted February 28 Posted February 28 2 hours ago, Stick. said: bit distracted but here I actually don’t mind this. 3 cleared is good Interesting votes, I dunno if im convinced Mistfallen’s e here but let’s see. the reason I v read them is kinda backwards but when I subbed in and saw them being kinda a loud voice - and being a bit overzealous was a large part of how they got caught in the previous game where they were e so I expected them to take an approach more lowkey next time. also they’d been posting with actual detailed reads on players and not just mech spec which was also a plus but admittedly a generous one considering it’s now an obvious tell wow how many ppl targeted me last loop lol ur making me blush…. HG was inactive so u guys should have targeted somebody who had probably actually purchased something from the shop more information that way. oh well I would be inclined to clear hael for being in the tie there but then he went “omggg I had no idea TUM made fewer posts than me I totally thought I’d die” (paraphrased) and that immediately takes away from it for me LOL brain kinda not fully into this today tho I might be more helpful tmr when I vote I feel like Mistfallen's been overzealous in every game he's played so far from QF77 to now, so I guess at this point, I'd consider it a playstyle thing and NAI. I liked the detailed reads too and one thing that made me lean more villagery on him was his early D3 suspicion of me where he noted how I wasn't responding to questions. And I feel like it's a kind of observation that comes moreso from village. Then again, some of the more recent comments he made give me pause Hahaha I laughed at your imitation of Hael's reaction and yeah, I think that's one of the reasons I feel that it's not really clearing. Anyways, something I've been concerned about is that there are 3 people who haven't committed to a vote by the end of the day: Hael, Burnt, and Coder. Coder has voted Archer on D2 and then retracted it close to EOD while both Hael and Burnt haven't voted a single time at all. I find that concerning because I don't know where they stand and it's a common elim strategy to stay under the radar by not holding any responsibility over an exe I'm still suspicious of Hael, but I'd like to vote Burnt for the moment. I really liked the large readslist on D2, but then she hasn't really done anything with those reads to try getting an elim 23 minutes ago, Archer said: L1D1, only Wonko and Mistfallen accumulated 10 extra rupees. (By the end of L1N1 Burnt, Divergent, maybe Coco, maybe Hael got to 10). [Discounting Wahr, TUO, and Ashbringer. Excluding confirmed Postman Doc.] Mistfallen has claimed the red Mask of Scents. Wonko likely got an unidentified red mask. Likely no one bought the Captain’s Hat, hence the silence. Of the blue masks, Coco claimed Bremen. Divergent claimed Don Gero. Doc had Postman’s Hat. The Bunny Hood is unclaimed. The elims could increase their odds of getting specific masks by stacking their votes and/or aiming for unpopular masks. Bremen and Don Gero would be their priorities, so giving themselves 40%/40%/0%/0% odds makes more sense than 20%/20%/20%/20%. Villager inactivity/incompetence likely increased their odds, but even if they had a 50% shot at two specific masks, they likely only got one. Odds of getting two were about 25%. So we can predict that there is, at most, one elim among Doc, Coco, Divergent, and Bunny-wearer. 50% of the time, they get no mask, so I’m inclined to leave this group alone. Likely three elims among: Araris TJ Honor’s Ghost/Stick Wonko Burnt Coder/Drake Hoid Slayer Mistfallen Hael (me) (My exe order is: Burnt, TJ, Stick, Araris, HS, Drake, Wonko, Hael, Mistfallen.) Edit: Reread my notes. HG had something I found villagery, so I'd move Stick closer to the trust side. Wanted to ask, how did you not end up getting any mask? I'm surprised you missed out lol
Burnt Spaghetti she/her Posted February 28 Posted February 28 6 minutes ago, Archer said: L1D1, only Wonko and Mistfallen accumulated 10 extra rupees. (By the end of L1N1 Burnt, Divergent, maybe Coco, maybe Hael got to 10). [Discounting Wahr, TUO, and Ashbringer. Excluding confirmed Postman Doc.] Mistfallen has claimed the red Mask of Scents. Wonko likely got an unidentified red mask. Likely no one bought the Captain’s Hat, hence the silence. Of the blue masks, Coco claimed Bremen. Divergent claimed Don Gero. Doc had Postman’s Hat. The Bunny Hood is unclaimed. The elims could increase their odds of getting specific masks by stacking their votes and/or aiming for unpopular masks. Bremen and Don Gero would be their priorities, so giving themselves 40%/40%/0%/0% odds makes more sense than 20%/20%/20%/20%. Villager inactivity/incompetence likely increased their odds, but even if they had a 50% shot at two specific masks, they likely only got one. Odds of getting two were about 25%. So we can predict that there is, at most, one elim among Doc, Coco, Divergent, and Bunny-wearer. 50% of the time, they get no mask, so I’m inclined to leave this group alone. Likely three elims among: Araris TJ Honor’s Ghost/Stick Wonko Burnt Coder/Drake Hoid Slayer Mistfallen Hael (me) (My exe order is: Burnt, TJ, Stick, Araris, HS, Drake, Wonko, Hael, Mistfallen.) Edit: Reread my notes. HG had something I found villagery, so I'd move Stick closer to the trust side. 3 hours ago, Doc12 said: Colors, streamers, scents everywhere. Thistle and their shadow first went to the Post Office to drop off some letters before realizing it was annoyingly shut. Frowning, Thistle attempted to bid the five rupees for the Postman's hat, only to be told that... they'd had their chance? Odd. They passed the laundry pools to pick up some clothing. "Hullo Kieran! Happy Hero's Carnival!" For Kieren, an... ironshroom? That felt right... they could use some protection... They passed crochety old Arenta yelling at some trespassers. "Good afternoon Arenta, happy Hero's Carnival!" Thistle privately considered presenting the woman with their namesake plant, but decided to be generous and gift her a Hyrule Herb instead. "For your aches," they smile. And then, Cindra, wandering by the West Ward. "Hello there!" Thistle beamed, "Happy Hero's Carnival! My friend Zymni really wanted to meet you!" @Burnt Spaghetti I achieved no mask last loop. It was a big sad. Meant spare coin for some pms tho. Id competed for postmaster and bunny for what its worth Im pretty sure most people can afford reds this loop by my count, and possible that people could afford a purple if they smash out posts today. So im expecting much more in play this loop, which will be good. More ways to get info. Im feeling question marks about mist saying docs def good. The only definitely good folks are the ones who died loop one. Im always hesitant to be so confident on anyone's alignment this early on. To me doc does give village vibes, as he's been communicated about pms, but idk that that confirms anything. Same with hael. As people have pointed out, this outcome was likely given we can track people's post counts. If hael is village, makes sense for elims to let it be, if he is evil, also makes sense for them to let it be- no point making the gap bigger to ensure he survives at the cost of seriously incriminating both hael and whoever manipulated the vote or last minute changes vote. So in a way I feel him being a tie not very indicative. Again though, we know that Tum was village, and also volunteered to be exe’d. Id be more concerned with the people that voted for Tum tbh. You seem to keep changing your mind about me Archer Yeah, i should be voting this is fair. Ngl just didnt feel strongly about anyone during loop 1. Mostly wanted to just see what happens and make more decisions during loop 2 when we have more concrete information to play with. Ill try do proper analysis later today on that, and actually commit to a vote, atm just woken up so just more responding to what I saw in today's thread, big thoughts are a problem for once ive properly started the day. ----- Condra was practising her songs for the carnival performance. She had been getting frustrated with how a scale had been sounding so was playing it on repeat to get a hang of the speed. It was sounding much better, and she even added a trill up the top which scratched an itch in her brain in a satisfying way. The sun was out, the air clean...clean? Her music died on her lips as thoughts of smoke and sounds of screams filled her memories. Did that happen? How... but... the town. Im in town. Its. Whole? That must have been one hell of a nightmare. It felt so real... "Hello there!" Thistles voice snapped her out of her thoughts "Happy Hero's Carnival! My friend Zymni really wanted to meet you!" Cindra blinked. And then blinked again. And suddenly her cheeks were wet. "Thistle! You found them? You're... your okay!" She pulled Thistle into a tight hug, then realised she felt insane and quickly backed off "im sorry... I had this awful dream... I dont know what came over me" she tried to laugh it off. She hesitated again. "Happy to help with anything you need, what was it that you were after? Oh! Also, id been meaning to find you too actually. Id wanted to make some flowers crowns for the performance. Can I come around tomorrow to prepare those?" Tomorrow... no. She had this strong urge to do it today, to do it immediately but that didnt make sense. They should be kept fresh.
Archer he/him Posted February 28 Posted February 28 23 minutes ago, Divergent said: Wanted to ask, how did you not end up getting any mask? I'm surprised you missed out lol I put in for PM and Donger, so it's your fault actually I couldn't have gone for the big ones D1 even if I'd known to do it; I was at 18. You can't spend money you earn that round, far as I know. Burnt, what I really like about Doc is their PM choices. Choosing to PM all their suspects makes a lot of sense. My TUM vote was partially out of principle for asking to be exed. I know it's usually villager behaviour, but I like to discourage it. You being a prolific question mark at this stage isn't a great look, so my votes stays unless you want to sell me on someone else!
DrakeMarshall he/him Posted February 28 Posted February 28 (edited) 2 hours ago, Doc12 said: so I don't have a read, but hey, care to continue asking to be exed? w- why would that help you if you're village edit: ...so, I don't really know what's going on yet but I would personally like for PMs to be a thing. I mean I'd also like to receive rupee donations naturally, the Fierce Deity Mask isn't going to buy itself now is it Is anyone getting the postman mask? Is mask decisions something we're talking about in public or are we over it. I can't think of a pressing reason not to talk about it at this time so I'm placing a bid, you lot can do what you want unrelated but Burnt I really like your signature graphic I will weigh in on Mistfallen when I have opinions about Mistfallen, which I do not currently. Edited March 1 by DrakeMarshall
Archer he/him Posted March 1 Posted March 1 35 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said: w- why would that help you if you're village You can only win one mask, but you can bid on as many as you have rupees to buy. So if you have 10, you can bid on two worth 5 each. Fierce Diety is impossible to obtain until Loop 5, if I remember the D1 discussion correctly.
Burnt Spaghetti she/her Posted March 1 Posted March 1 Fair enough, lets see who i can sell you on then. I'm not particularly good at selling things, i tend to end up the one being sold things i didnt need, so anyways. The vote counts: Spoiler First Exe: (5) Wahrheit: Araris, Mistfallen, coco, TJ, Divergent (last hour vote - already clearly a train happening), (2) Hoid Slayer: Archer (Last minute Vote), Doc12 (Last minute Vote), (2) Archer: Wonko, Hoid Slayer, (2) Mistfallen: Wahrheit, TUM, (1) Coder: Stick, Second Exe: (3) TUM: Archer, Mistfallen, coco, (3) Haelbarde: Divergent, Stick, Hoid Slayer (last minute vote), (1) Doc: Wonko, (1) coco: Araris, (1) Divergent: TJ, (1) TJ: Doc (Last minute vote), @Doc12 Why you keep last minute voting? You don't seem sus to me, as in a way, the fact that both times you went for not the current exe target, so potentially not voting on a villager is good, but also, why so late? Theres not much chance to redirect a exe with those so kinda feels a little for the sake of it to me @Divergent your voting also concerns me a little tbh. The first exe that could easily be an elim jumping on a train they know will be village but is the general opinion, (mind you, i'm not looking back at peoples reasoning atm, literally just the votes), and the second one, idk, Hael is an uncertain, it could be an elim voting on elim situation. but hm. Maybe not so much. If hael was evil idk that you'd have been the first to go for them there. honestly idk actually, maybe you're fine. Putting it in the category of watching but dont really know tbh. we dont have anything to go off with ash being villager, they not in that list at all. Coco and mistfallen were in both village exe's. They should reevalute their suspicions and recalibrate that cause thats not a great streak. As i said, i really don't like that Tum was exe'd. Yes they'd been on a lot of peoples watch list, but them asking to die to get money back was really weird to me, but not in a suspicious way. I really don't see an elim having done that when they seemed to be wanting to win the loop with their lack of N1 kill. If we were killing to grant rupees back then someone like mistfallen shouldve been exed- yknow, someone who had been actively using them productively. Tum didn't have many rupees apparently, and the only mask left unclaimed is the bunny, but thats not helpful if you aren't generating the post income, and they didn't spend on pms, so any poverty was from their lack of action in previous cycles. Tum, no offense to you, but you feel like someone the elims would be happy to have in the trust pool compared to the more active Archer, mistfallen, wonko. I know we wanted an elim dead, but i feel like they let us choose between people who would be less problematic to have hard trusted ngl. So for that reason, wonko, araris, TJ, i'm feeling good about, Archer mistfallen and coco I am not feeling good about. We didn't kill mistfallen last loop although his name floated around. But the mask of scents sounding thread comments definitely discouraged any desire to kill them off for me. When we don't have any info, thats helpful information for us to gain. However thats also a good mask to ensure village doesn't get. That being said with only mist and wonko able to get it, im not sure how much elims would try and stop just one player potentially getting it, though it is a good way to gain trust early game. Ngl they are absolutely a player i'd want tested for exe. Coco. What is coco up to. They've not registered to me at all ngl. They're active and present in the exe's but really not on my radar, which concerns me that i simply don't remember what they've done at all. lemme go back through their stuff
DrakeMarshall he/him Posted March 1 Posted March 1 6 minutes ago, Archer said: You can only win one mask, but you can bid on as many as you have rupees to buy. So if you have 10, you can bid on two worth 5 each. Fierce Diety is impossible to obtain until Loop 5, if I remember the D1 discussion correctly. Do you lose rupees between loops? I think with the Postman's Hat and generous donations to the Fund of Drake Is Cool (FDIC for short) it could be achieved quite a lot sooner ...oh nevermind players can spend up to 5 rupees but the postman only gets 1 regardless my pyramid scheme is dead
coco.pudding she/they Posted March 1 Posted March 1 1 minute ago, DrakeMarshall said: Do you lose rupees between loops? I think with the Postman's Hat and generous donations to the Fund of Drake Is Cool (FDIC for short) it could be achieved quite a lot sooner ...oh nevermind players can spend up to 5 rupees but the postman only gets 1 regardless my pyramid scheme is dead Do you always try to start sketchy businesses in SE games or is this a more recent occurrence?
DrakeMarshall he/him Posted March 1 Posted March 1 (edited) 31 minutes ago, coco.pudding said: Do you always try to start sketchy businesses in SE games or is this a more recent occurrence? …no comment edit: 20 hours ago, Wonko the Sane said: Okay, so that's definitely exciting news. I'm still reviewing the backlog of material, and I need to get to sleep, but in the interest of starting discussion, I'll put a vote on Mistfallen, who's been consistently active, yet keeps pinging me as behaving oddly. And, of course, we now know that he was one of two players to vote on BOTH misexes. There was no elim kill at some point yes? And nobody claimed a block on those nights? (At least, I assume I would have heard of it if somebody had. Obligatory "I don't really know what I'm talking about" but we aren't going to get anywhere if I don't share my thoughts regardless.) Not to put too fine a point on it, but why do we think the elims were driving the execution if they weren't even driving the kill that they have full control of? Yeah maybe everything can be explained by the elims playing 5D chess mindgames but is that the explanation we want to go with right off the bat? ......actually, maybe the elims just didn't want to clear as many people on the first loop, since it'd make their life harder on all the later loops okay that makes a lot of sense actually carry on. Edited March 1 by DrakeMarshall 1
Myst He/Him Posted March 1 Posted March 1 27 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said: …no comment edit: There was no elim kill at some point yes? And nobody claimed a block on those nights? (At least, I assume I would have heard of it if somebody had. Obligatory "I don't really know what I'm talking about" but we aren't going to get anywhere if I don't share my thoughts regardless.) Not to put too fine a point on it, but why do we think the elims were driving the execution if they weren't even driving the kill that they have full control of? Yeah maybe everything can be explained by the elims playing 5D chess mindgames but is that the explanation we want to go with right off the bat? ......actually, maybe the elims just didn't want to clear as many people on the first loop, since it'd make their life harder on all the later loops okay that makes a lot of sense actually carry on. There was no NK nights 1A and 3A. It didn’t get roleblocked. And yeah, we assume that they wanted to limit the hard clearing. However, we can always beat them at 5D chess by playing 1D chess lol
DrakeMarshall he/him Posted March 1 Posted March 1 Eat the chess pieces. You know you want to. They are delicious It's weird that the elims killed someone on Night 2A. Presumably if they were committed to the no-free-clears strategy, they would have no good reason to kill on 2A. There's something to be said for using the kill to silence opposition and control the vote, sure, but Ashbringer didn't vote on Day 2A. Not the obvious pick if it's just about controlling the vote. If anyone else has theories I'm all ears but for now I'll just say it's weird and move on. Ok I'm skimming over the first loop. Well mostly Day 2 since that was when everyone reacted to there being no kill. Apparently everyone thought it was optimal for the elims to lose the first loop on purpose before it went this way? Honestly I tend to agree with the elims on this one lol. An elim win with as few clears as possible seems ideal for them. And is it really that hard to pull off, considering we only had 2 votes last loop? Even if it wasn't, idk it wouldn't entirely sit right to throw things on purpose. Easy to say that's "optimal" from the outside but would you actually want to do that if you were an elim. Maybe some people would idk. In the very least I don't think TJ would be about that life though. Plus there's also just the sheer bloody-mindedness factor. I think most elims would rather defy village expectations for what they Should Do just on sheer principle I do think it's mildly indicative of a confident elim team though. Shooting for the low-info win on the first loop is technically the higher risk, higher reward option. I think you don't aim for it if one of your members is attracting suspicion and even might get voted soon. ...yeah maybe that's why they killed Ashbringer actually. Nothing to do with Ashbringer specifically, just that they were hedging. If Day 3 went badly for them they could get another kill Night 3 and there's generally less information to go around. I think that probably implies that the elims weren't all 100% under the radar. Whoever was a suspect around Day 2A and Night 2A who wasn't cleared, should probably be put back on the menu. I don't know who specifically we should look at yet though since I haven't read those turns carefully. 1
Myst He/Him Posted March 1 Posted March 1 3 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said: Eat the chess pieces. You know you want to. They are delicious It's weird that the elims killed someone on Night 2A. Presumably if they were committed to the no-free-clears strategy, they would have no good reason to kill on 2A. There's something to be said for using the kill to silence opposition and control the vote, sure, but Ashbringer didn't vote on Day 2A. Not the obvious pick if it's just about controlling the vote. If anyone else has theories I'm all ears but for now I'll just say it's weird and move on. Ok I'm skimming over the first loop. Well mostly Day 2 since that was when everyone reacted to there being no kill. Apparently everyone thought it was optimal for the elims to lose the first loop on purpose before it went this way? Honestly I tend to agree with the elims on this one lol. An elim win with as few clears as possible seems ideal for them. And is it really that hard to pull off, considering we only had 2 votes last loop? Even if it wasn't, idk it wouldn't entirely sit right to throw things on purpose. Easy to say that's "optimal" from the outside but would you actually want to do that if you were an elim. Maybe some people would idk. In the very least I don't think TJ would be about that life though. Plus there's also just the sheer bloody-mindedness factor. I think most elims would rather defy village expectations for what they Should Do just on sheer principle I do think it's mildly indicative of a confident elim team though. Shooting for the low-info win on the first loop is technically the higher risk, higher reward option. I think you don't aim for it if one of your members is attracting suspicion and even might get voted soon. ...yeah maybe that's why they killed Ashbringer actually. Nothing to do with Ashbringer specifically, just that they were hedging. If Day 3 went badly for them they could get another kill Night 3 and there's generally less information to go around. I think that probably implies that the elims weren't all 100% under the radar. Whoever was a suspect around Day 2A and Night 2A who wasn't cleared, should probably be put back on the menu. I don't know who specifically we should look at yet though since I haven't read those turns carefully. Only person I can think of right now that fits that is Wonko, and maybe Burnt, I’d have to check to be sure.
coco.pudding she/they Posted March 1 Posted March 1 2 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said: It's weird that the elims killed someone on Night 2A. Presumably if they were committed to the no-free-clears strategy, they would have no good reason to kill on 2A. There's something to be said for using the kill to silence opposition and control the vote, sure, but Ashbringer didn't vote on Day 2A. Not the obvious pick if it's just about controlling the vote. If anyone else has theories I'm all ears but for now I'll just say it's weird and move on. I believe someone mathed it and the elims did need at least one kill to achieve parity. But they only needed one as opposed to needing to kill every night.
DrakeMarshall he/him Posted March 1 Posted March 1 1 minute ago, coco.pudding said: I believe someone mathed it and the elims did need at least one kill to achieve parity. But they only needed one as opposed to needing to kill every night. oh yep that's right there in the game timeline, loop 1 needs to end with 7/4 for the minions to win ...wait what we didn't end with 7/4 though we ended with 9/4 what exactly is the loop 1 parity cutoff, because it's not 2.5 like the other loops is it, and I'm not seeing a different number anywhere in the rules for 16 players Is loop 1 actually different from the other loops or is 2.5 the parity condition on all of them?
Myst He/Him Posted March 1 Posted March 1 (edited) 6 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said: oh yep that's right there in the game timeline, loop 1 needs to end with 7/4 for the minions to win ...wait what we didn't end with 7/4 though we ended with 9/4 what exactly is the loop 1 parity cutoff, because it's not 2.5 like the other loops is it, and I'm not seeing a different number anywhere in the rules for 16 players Is loop 1 actually different from the other loops or is 2.5 the parity condition on all of them? It is 2.5. 4 • 2.5 = 10 so we’d win a 10v4(I.e. no NK) 4/9 is not a 2.5 Elim to village ratio so they win. Edit: VC Mistfallen (5): Wonko, Ashbringer*, Wahr*, Stick, Burnt Dive (1): Araris Burnt (1): Archer Wonko (1): Doc Edited March 1 by Mistfallen Soldier
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