coco.pudding she/they Posted March 1 Posted March 1 47 minutes ago, The Unknown Medallion said: Totally didn't think the turn was over. I had a realization that the reason the elims killed n2 was probably in case the kill got blocked. Not sure why they didn't kill n1 with that logic, but I think suboptimal play is the only option tbh As I was saying earlier, the Mist train just feels weird. I feel like every post I read is saying how they v!read Mist or at least don't like the train, but there was barely a counterwagon and even still I'm pretty sure they're in the lead, though the last vc is a while ago and it's too late at night for me to double check (my guess is Stick is behind by two votes, but idk) But I think it might just be weird in a way that everyone involved is just a villager tbh, like nobody pings me here as being e!motivated Yep, the train is a bit weird considering the number of people (both today and in the last loop) saying they had village reads on Mistfallen and are now voting for them? It doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. Anyway, here’s a new vote count: Mistfallen (4): Ashbringer, Wahr, Stick, Burnt Dive (1): Araris Burnt (1): Archer Wonko (1): Doc Stick (2): Mistfallen, Wonko So yeah Stick is behind by two, you’re right on that! And both of those votes actually happened after the most recent vote count. I don’t know if that’s interesting or useful information at all, but it’s what I just learned, so now you get to know!
Ashbringer he/him Posted March 1 Posted March 1 1 hour ago, Stick. said: can u elaborate & thoughts on burnt? In my experience, Villagers tend to be more assertive in their Village-ness than Elims do, as well as more accepting of mortality? One of the main Village things I've learned is sometimes it's fine getting misexed if it means you won't have to be the point of discussion for the next 2 cycles. Both of those arguments aren't necessarily strong, but IMO they're Village in foundation. I'll take a looksee at Burnt. (Oh hi Burnt!) 44 minutes ago, The Unknown Medallion said: I had a realization that the reason the elims killed n2 was probably in case the kill got blocked. Not sure why they didn't kill n1 with that logic, but I think suboptimal play is the only option tbh As I was saying earlier, the Mist train just feels weird. I feel like every post I read is saying how they v!read Mist or at least don't like the train, but there was barely a counterwagon and even still I'm pretty sure they're in the lead, though the last vc is a while ago and it's too late at night for me to double check (my guess is Stick is behind by two votes, but idk) But I think it might just be weird in a way that everyone involved is just a villager tbh, like nobody pings me here as being e!motivated I kinda agree, not seeing a lot of pressure examples. Not that I'm the best person to apply pressure. You're better at being a mayor than me, I'm pretty sure Elims would have zero benefit from sending a kill in N3-A, though I also want to look into why I got killed N2. Possibly just for the Economy, but it may show that there was some pressure leading into D3-A. Not necessarily from me, because again not good at the pressure. But a stronger possibility that the D3 exe would lead to an Elim than the D2 exe was. Because if I didn't die and the Exe did hit an Elim instead of you, then the Elim team is looking at a round loss and a 50/50 Elim/Village pairing which is really bad for them. (Or do an N3 kill, but that's either obviously trying to dilute the potential Elim pool or the most 5-D-chess move to set an NKed Elim up for future success, and Drake wasn't in the game at that point.)
Burnt Spaghetti she/her Posted March 1 Posted March 1 4 hours ago, Wonko the Sane said: Well, as Doc said. "I never trust Burnt". Of all people who I've ever played this game with, you are easily the one who most screams "don't trust me" every time I see you (regardless of your alignment). Personally, I still flinch at the memory of LG18 like a dog that's been kicked. --- A portion of Thistle's shadow shifted oddly, moving independently of the light that cast it. It reached over and tugged at Cindra's leg, pulling with almost imperceptible force over to a nearby darkened alcove. Zymni groaned, inaudible to everyone but Thistle. Why did this Realm have to have that accursed ball of Light in the sky? She had urgent questions, and the pair were exchanging pleasantries! She threw a rude gesture invisibly at the sky, then did her best to tug harder. Hee :3 Thats fair, I have no reason to expect anyone to trust me lol All i ask for is friends to chat to Though gotta say. Given pms are appearing to not be that popular with folks here, I probably didn't need to push to get max coin so that i had enough to maybe get a red as well as pm freely. Mind you the challenge has been fun, and its been achievable. Maybe my best bet for chatter is the dead doc I was thinking about it. I have thoughts on mist, i'm happy for them to be exe'd. However i do also acknowledge the lack of resistance to that exe choice. I don't know. I know i teased archer on changing their mind on me a bunch but i feel that with mistfallen a bit too. I think my main leading thought had been similar to last loop with them, wonko and archer - i want them exe'd at least once to test. However. Ive been thinking numbers, cause i'm thinking we should in theory be able to process of elimination (literally) work this out and wanted to see what the numbers were looking like. We've lost one loop, which is not great, but that has changed the chances of us hitting elims with our exe. It has gone from a 4 in 16 (25%) chance of us hitting an elim ( look i know its not actually random because we have other factors and reasoning to alter that chance), to a 4 in 13 chance (33%), which may not seem like a big improvement, but its certainly something. I was thinking about what the numbers would look like if we lost again, if that would make it really easy to tell and potentially guarantee the next loops but definitely thats not how the numbers turned out. The pool of people who die, if we assume that no confirmed villagers die, would have a maximum of 1 in 6 chance of being evil (16%), with the people outside the dead pool having a chance of 3 in 7 chance (43%) of being evil. If we win this loop the percentage numbers are much better for us, perhaps unsurprisingly. They have a much better rate of success, especially because the pool of highest percentages is a smaller pool. Much more reasonable for us to work through. Minimum of 2 in 6 elims (33%), max of 4 in 6 (although very unlikely (66%)) could potentially be even better if they miss a nk or get blocked This means outside the pool theres max of 2 in 7 (28%), meaning that just looking at raw numbers theres much more benefit to killing off the people we exe'd the last round. I will note, I don't actually think the elims benefit from rekilling the people from loop 1. If they lose the loop, that significantly narrows the pool of options for us to chose in. If they win the loop there could be some benefit if again we failed to kill any, but i dont think thats going to be the case. Because this isn't just about rolling the dice and raw luck. We have analysis, we can track who voted on who. So long story short, my initial thought of keeping testing in mind is not good, its simply not relevant and a bad idea. And none of this is realistically helpful i don't think. Long story short, i dunno. The numbers get good for us, but not necessarily confirming anything unless other factors impact, like people being confirmed evil or good with mask usage. Ah well was worht a thought. definitely going to keep an eye on thenumbers for the future, but idk if that helps. Current thought is. Mist I just dunno. I felt the need to vote, but simply dunno ------------ Cindra pulled back as she felt something tugging. Did her clothing catch on something of Thistles...? Wait... Her shadow... did it move? What is that? Thistle did say something about their friend liking shadows. She smiled, in that confused way where you don't understand but you smile anyways "Um. Thistle your shadow is tugging on me. I didn't know that's a thing they could do. Is... Um. Hello? Is this the Zymni you were looking for before? How can I help?" 1
Myst He/Him Posted March 1 Posted March 1 For those tracking rupees/the people worrying about the votes, I would win ties with just about everyone, except for Doc, and maybe one or two others. So a tie would just be be exe-ing the others ———————— Kieran frowned, some people had gotten away with the mask. “I don’t know why they’ll do with it, but I don’t want to find out” And people kept blaming him… why?? They’d seen him during the entire fight. It didn’t make sense. 1
Burnt Spaghetti she/her Posted March 1 Posted March 1 9 minutes ago, Mistfallen Soldier said: For those tracking rupees/the people worrying about the votes, I would win ties with just about everyone, except for Doc, and maybe one or two others. So a tie would just be be exe-ing the others ———————— Kieran frowned, some people had gotten away with the mask. “I don’t know why they’ll do with it, but I don’t want to find out” And people kept blaming him… why?? They’d seen him during the entire fight. It didn’t make sense. huh? Didn't you say you bought a red mask? Shouldn't you like, be one of the poorer players around right now?
Through the living Wahr He/Him Posted March 1 Posted March 1 So there are a lot of People thinking that Mistfallen is village, I have to admit i do not fully trust them, but removing my Vote right now would create a tie with a Stick and therefore kill her (at least if Mist is right, I didnt track Rupees) I do trust Stick more than Mist though, so my Vote stays for now, unless an Option appears were another Person I do no trust would get exed. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- After geting something to eat as well as aquiring a Knife, Wahi walked down a street as he spotted a person that seemed oddly familiar, he was unsure if he should approach them because it seemed like there mood wasnt the best, but decided to approach them anyway. "Hi, I dont want to bother you, but you seem familiar, do we know each other? My memories are a bit fuzzy today, and It seems like I am remembering things that haven happened" 2
Stick. she/her Posted March 1 Posted March 1 2 hours ago, Ashbringer said: In my experience, Villagers tend to be more assertive in their Village-ness than Elims do, as well as more accepting of mortality? One of the main Village things I've learned is sometimes it's fine getting misexed if it means you won't have to be the point of discussion for the next 2 cycles. Both of those arguments aren't necessarily strong, but IMO they're Village in foundation. right but they were doing the opposite of asserting villager-ness by arguing against my reasons to villa read them (but to be clear I don’t find just that in and of itself suspicious, it was also the way it was said that bugged me) I was secretly reading burnt’s response to pressure with a vote onto an already-leading mistfallen train as a bus/distancing and was thinking to myself she’s prolly gonna switch votes as soon as it becomes viable that someone else might go instead. well well well tbf only half of that has been proven right so far so let’s see conf village: wahr ash TUM village reads (imo there’s no e here): doc coco wonko lighter village (could be some e here but Id have to be convinced): archer divergent the rest (ok with killing these generally with the exception of drake since he’s just subbed in): drake burnt mistfallen araris hoid hael tj
Haelbarde he/him Posted March 1 Posted March 1 Tried to do a read through of the game so far, but I'm struggling to get into the right headspace for properly analysing posts for reads. Best I've gotten from this pass is a desire to think more deeply on Archer, CoderDragon/Drake, and Divergent as players that feel like, at a glance, could be neutral coasting in a manner that an elim might. Probably happy to put a vote down on Divergent, with the intent to try and do a closer read on them in the morning to either lock it in or shift it elsewhere. (FWIW, I wrote the above before noticing that Divergent has had me as a primary elim read the last cycle or so)
Burnt Spaghetti she/her Posted March 1 Posted March 1 51 minutes ago, Stick. said: right but they were doing the opposite of asserting villager-ness by arguing against my reasons to villa read them (but to be clear I don’t find just that in and of itself suspicious, it was also the way it was said that bugged me) I was secretly reading burnt’s response to pressure with a vote onto an already-leading mistfallen train as a bus/distancing and was thinking to myself she’s prolly gonna switch votes as soon as it becomes viable that someone else might go instead. well well well tbf only half of that has been proven right so far so let’s see conf village: wahr ash TUM village reads (imo there’s no e here): doc coco wonko lighter village (could be some e here but Id have to be convinced): archer divergent the rest (ok with killing these generally with the exception of drake since he’s just subbed in): drake burnt mistfallen araris hoid hael tj Rude Now i dont know whether i should not vote out of spite or jump back on a train. You volunteering? Though ngl if i was jumping back on, id still be okay with mist dive or you as options, theres some concerns with all of you as it is as far as voting patterns and behaviours. I still think wonko's fine though. I could jump on my own, would that work? look decision making has never been my strong suit, especially when exe's are concerned okay xD I don't have strong feelings about anything >.>
Archer he/him Posted March 1 Posted March 1 5 hours ago, Ashbringer said: Elims would have zero benefit from sending a kill in N3-A, though I also want to look into why I got killed N2. They'd kill N2 in case their attack was blocked N3. What's the case for voting Stick? I'm more convinced of v!Mistfallen then them, but it's a pure POE shot for me. Still don't like the Divergent kill because of the blue mask math.
Burnt Spaghetti she/her Posted March 1 Posted March 1 Mist had me thinking re rupee counts so I was looking through some. For some reason idk how to tag them but tj what's up with the radio silence
Divergent He/Him Posted March 1 Posted March 1 15 hours ago, Archer said: I put in for PM and Donger, so it's your fault actually I couldn't have gone for the big ones D1 even if I'd known to do it; I was at 18. You can't spend money you earn that round, far as I know. Hahah somehow I thought you had reached 20 because of your interaction with Mistfallen mentioning dead meat and I was like, I guess you got the dead doc mask?? 14 hours ago, Burnt Spaghetti said: @Divergent your voting also concerns me a little tbh. The first exe that could easily be an elim jumping on a train they know will be village but is the general opinion, (mind you, i'm not looking back at peoples reasoning atm, literally just the votes), and the second one, idk, Hael is an uncertain, it could be an elim voting on elim situation. but hm. Maybe not so much. If hael was evil idk that you'd have been the first to go for them there. honestly idk actually, maybe you're fine. Putting it in the category of watching but dont really know tbh. I'm fairly sure I was asleep when people were voting Wahr (my timezone's UTC+8), so I think it's more NAI. But anyways, I had voted Wahr because I felt that some of his statements and actions were contradictory (being suspicious of people moving away from Wonko/Archer and then doing the same; believing one of them to be elim and then voting Mistfallen), and also that Archer's one of my village reads, so I didn't want him to go either I wanted to ask, why didn't you vote at all the previous two days?
Divergent He/Him Posted March 1 Posted March 1 6 hours ago, coco.pudding said: Yep, the train is a bit weird considering the number of people (both today and in the last loop) saying they had village reads on Mistfallen and are now voting for them? It doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. Anyway, here’s a new vote count: Mistfallen (4): Ashbringer, Wahr, Stick, Burnt Dive (1): Araris Burnt (1): Archer Wonko (1): Doc Stick (2): Mistfallen, Wonko So yeah Stick is behind by two, you’re right on that! And both of those votes actually happened after the most recent vote count. I don’t know if that’s interesting or useful information at all, but it’s what I just learned, so now you get to know! I voted Burnt 2 hours ago, Haelbarde said: Tried to do a read through of the game so far, but I'm struggling to get into the right headspace for properly analysing posts for reads. Best I've gotten from this pass is a desire to think more deeply on Archer, CoderDragon/Drake, and Divergent as players that feel like, at a glance, could be neutral coasting in a manner that an elim might. Probably happy to put a vote down on Divergent, with the intent to try and do a closer read on them in the morning to either lock it in or shift it elsewhere. (FWIW, I wrote the above before noticing that Divergent has had me as a primary elim read the last cycle or so) Can you elaborate more on how you define coasting? I could see how that applies to Coder, but neither Archer or I have been coasting at all. If you had any questions for me to, especially with things you wanted clarified, let me know Had the same question for you as one of the non-voters in Loop 1, why didn't you vote at all?
Doc12 Posted March 1 Posted March 1 Ok, clearly I missed a lot >> 11 hours ago, Wonko the Sane said: Excellent. Now, the nice thing about this list is that, until very recently, I don't think any of us assumed you could deliver it. The rules and clarifications up to this point did not indicate that the Postman learned the senders and recipients of all messages. So, barring the possibility that you're an elim and either warned your teammates or fudged the above list, we can assume that no messages were sent between e/e pairs, because it would be a meaningless waste of Rupees. That's pretty useful. Now that's... weird. I only got one message from Archer, the one containing the word scramble. Are you sure I should have received two? You should have received two, yeah. @Archer can you confirm? 11 hours ago, Wonko the Sane said: Yeah... I'm worried about that too. He's sat on the chopping block for half the day and absolutely no one has tried to defend him. It makes me worried that I'm misreading something. Wonko has BEEN more passive since D1. I apologize, I haven't been as active on reading as I should be, which has left me far less certain of the lay of the land. I'm trying to commit to keeping up better going forward. In particular, I don't like the way that across D3A, he reiterated a several different times that he was confident that either Wahr, Ash, or both was an elim. It read to me like someone who wanted to make sure in case the Loop results turned up as a Village win, that our attention was diverted from the D3A exe victim. Well, as Doc said. "I never trust Burnt". Of all people who I've ever played this game with, you are easily the one who most screams "don't trust me" every time I see you (regardless of your alignment). Personally, I still flinch at the memory of LG18 like a dog that's been kicked. Honestly, given how central these points were to the discussion? It speaks well in your favor that you need them explained, as they've undoubtedly been highlighted in the elim doc. You're either giving a pretty good performance, or you're a villager. Gah. I REALLY don't like how little competition there's been for the exe. The only plausible explanations to me are that Mistfallen really is innocent, or he's being deliberately bussed by his teammates as they don't see a way to save him. Either way: So. I think I really like Drake's performance. Asking questions in thread and making uninformed assumptions to get corrected makes for a compelling village read. Leaving that aside for now. We're getting different CWs to Mist, which is good for options. I think as others have pointed out it does seem like a bit of an overreaction - as LGs tend to go, the first wagon usually doesn't last because people get worried halfway through the day. 13 hours ago, Burnt Spaghetti said: @Doc12 Why you keep last minute voting? You don't seem sus to me, as in a way, the fact that both times you went for not the current exe target, so potentially not voting on a villager is good, but also, why so late? Theres not much chance to redirect a exe with those so kinda feels a little for the sake of it to me We didn't kill mistfallen last loop although his name floated around. But the mask of scents sounding thread comments definitely discouraged any desire to kill them off for me. When we don't have any info, thats helpful information for us to gain. However thats also a good mask to ensure village doesn't get. That being said with only mist and wonko able to get it, im not sure how much elims would try and stop just one player potentially getting it, though it is a good way to gain trust early game. Ngl they are absolutely a player i'd want tested for exe. Love the player historically known for not voting til the last few cycles calling me out Not sure what you want me to say about it. I suppose I do like to vote later in a cycle because more information also making ties are fun, but I voted early this cycle! Yeah, looking back my votes have been off-train, and you can argue that voting for Hoid Slayer and TJ would do nothing, but for the first I was hoping for EoD shenanigans from Hoid, which kind of happened D3. 6 hours ago, The Unknown Medallion said: But I think it might just be weird in a way that everyone involved is just a villager tbh, like nobody pings me here as being e!motivated Does anyone ping you as being e! motivated this cycle? ---- Vote count Mistfallen (3): Ash, Wahr, Stick, Dive (2): Araris, Hael Burnt (2): Archer, Dive Wonko (1): Doc Stick (2): Mistfallen, Wonko TJ (1): Burnt Interesting that the confirmed villagers are sticking with Mist. On the whole, something I noticed is that both Burnt and Mist have expressed a willingness to be exed and go into the dead doc. Is that something elims want this cycle? I suppose the question is if we win would the exed players or nk'd players be more under suspicion. My gut was to say I'd investigate the exed because the elims don't have control of that. But is there a world where an elim would get themselves exed d1 because that's the day we'd probably pay least attention to? I'm retracting on Wonko. Glad to see you driving discussion again. Willing to vote on Burnt. Of the two Australians, Burnt has been more active in thread, but said less - though pressure this cycle has her saying more. Though as I say that Hael's back in with a vote on Dive. They're both equally fair game in my book. Interested to see what Hael has in the morning. ---------------- 15 hours ago, Burnt Spaghetti said: "Hello there!" Thistles voice snapped her out of her thoughts "Happy Hero's Carnival! My friend Zymni really wanted to meet you!" Cindra blinked. And then blinked again. And suddenly her cheeks were wet. "Thistle! You found them? You're... your okay!" She pulled Thistle into a tight hug, then realised she felt insane and quickly backed off "im sorry... I had this awful dream... I dont know what came over me" she tried to laugh it off. She hesitated again. "Happy to help with anything you need, what was it that you were after? Oh! Also, id been meaning to find you too actually. Id wanted to make some flowers crowns for the performance. Can I come around tomorrow to prepare those?" Tomorrow... no. She had this strong urge to do it today, to do it immediately but that didnt make sense. They should be kept fresh. 11 hours ago, Wonko the Sane said: A portion of Thistle's shadow shifted oddly, moving independently of the light that cast it. It reached over and tugged at Cindra's leg, pulling with almost imperceptible force over to a nearby darkened alcove. Zymni groaned, inaudible to everyone but Thistle. Why did this Realm have to have that accursed ball of Light in the sky? She had urgent questions, and the pair were exchanging pleasantries! She threw a rude gesture invisibly at the sky, then did her best to tug harder. 5 hours ago, Burnt Spaghetti said: Cindra pulled back as she felt something tugging. Did her clothing catch on something of Thistles...? Wait... Her shadow... did it move? What is that? Thistle did say something about their friend liking shadows. She smiled, in that confused way where you don't understand but you smile anyways "Um. Thistle your shadow is tugging on me. I didn't know that's a thing they could do. Is... Um. Hello? Is this the Zymni you were looking for before? How can I help?" Thistle relaxed into Cindra's hug, tears unexpectedly pricking at their own eyes. Yes, she knew Cindra, had confided in her, even if they hadn't really... had a conversation before today? But Cindra's own cheeks were wet... what was going on with today? "Flower crowns sound great!" Thistle chirped. "Do you have a color in mind? a specific bloom? Why don't you come around to my shop -" Thistle blinked as Zymni left their shadow to tug insistently at Cindra's leg. "Oh, my apologies," They smiled at Cindra "Zymni really doesn't like being out in the sun, Why don't we talk at my shop?" A quick glance at their shadow, "Is that alright with you, Zymni?" --- Inside Fairy Flowers, Thistle hurried to brew a pot of elderflower tea, having settled Cindra in the sitting room. "So what's got you so interested in our musician, Zymni?" "Also, are you thinking warm or cool flowers for her hair? Warm safflinas to complement or cool to set it off?" 1
Stick. she/her Posted March 1 Posted March 1 i actually love this vote count rn 2 hours ago, Burnt Spaghetti said: Rude Now i dont know whether i should not vote out of spite or jump back on a train. You volunteering? Though ngl if i was jumping back on, id still be okay with mist dive or you as options, theres some concerns with all of you as it is as far as voting patterns and behaviours. I still think wonko's fine though. I could jump on my own, would that work? look decision making has never been my strong suit, especially when exe's are concerned okay xD I don't have strong feelings about anything >.> sorry i feel like i bullied u a bit there esp if u are indeed E lol if ur v im interested to hear actual thoughts like, not just VCA but more social reads if u have any since i best evaluate people based on how they present their social reads cuz it acts like a window into their natural thought progression. if those arent ur thing, maybe just vibe based social reads?
Archer he/him Posted March 1 Posted March 1 30 minutes ago, Doc12 said: You should have received two, yeah. @Archer can you confirm? First you mix up my letters, then you forget to deliver half my messages. I'm disappointed, Mr. Postman! I sent you a video of Fozzie Bear singing the 2010 World Cup anthem by Shakira so I was unambiguous about my intent to Wonka Wonka. (Wonko, did you get a letter about Doc's succession planning? That was actually from me.)
The Unknown Medallion he/him Posted March 1 Posted March 1 7 hours ago, coco.pudding said: Yep, the train is a bit weird considering the number of people (both today and in the last loop) saying they had village reads on Mistfallen and are now voting for them? It doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. Anyway, here’s a new vote count: Mistfallen (4): Ashbringer, Wahr, Stick, Burnt Dive (1): Araris Burnt (1): Archer Wonko (1): Doc Stick (2): Mistfallen, Wonko So yeah Stick is behind by two, you’re right on that! And both of those votes actually happened after the most recent vote count. I don’t know if that’s interesting or useful information at all, but it’s what I just learned, so now you get to know! See, votecounts are for people that aren't smart enough to keep them in their heads I am slightly worried Mist is an elim who had teammates see a train beginning, so they all piled on to make people like it less. That used to be a fairly common tactic, but I'm not confident that's what's going on here 7 hours ago, Ashbringer said: In my experience, Villagers tend to be more assertive in their Village-ness than Elims do, as well as more accepting of mortality? One of the main Village things I've learned is sometimes it's fine getting misexed if it means you won't have to be the point of discussion for the next 2 cycles. Both of those arguments aren't necessarily strong, but IMO they're Village in foundation. I'll take a looksee at Burnt. (Oh hi Burnt!) I kinda agree, not seeing a lot of pressure examples. Not that I'm the best person to apply pressure. You're better at being a mayor than me, I'm pretty sure Elims would have zero benefit from sending a kill in N3-A, though I also want to look into why I got killed N2. Possibly just for the Economy, but it may show that there was some pressure leading into D3-A. Not necessarily from me, because again not good at the pressure. But a stronger possibility that the D3 exe would lead to an Elim than the D2 exe was. Because if I didn't die and the Exe did hit an Elim instead of you, then the Elim team is looking at a round loss and a 50/50 Elim/Village pairing which is really bad for them. (Or do an N3 kill, but that's either obviously trying to dilute the potential Elim pool or the most 5-D-chess move to set an NKed Elim up for future success, and Drake wasn't in the game at that point.) Technically, the best turn to send in a kill is n1, as it gives you the most flexibility and reaction time and least info to analyze 1 hour ago, Doc12 said: Ok, clearly I missed a lot >> You should have received two, yeah. @Archer can you confirm? So. I think I really like Drake's performance. Asking questions in thread and making uninformed assumptions to get corrected makes for a compelling village read. Leaving that aside for now. We're getting different CWs to Mist, which is good for options. I think as others have pointed out it does seem like a bit of an overreaction - as LGs tend to go, the first wagon usually doesn't last because people get worried halfway through the day. Love the player historically known for not voting til the last few cycles calling me out Not sure what you want me to say about it. I suppose I do like to vote later in a cycle because more information also making ties are fun, but I voted early this cycle! Yeah, looking back my votes have been off-train, and you can argue that voting for Hoid Slayer and TJ would do nothing, but for the first I was hoping for EoD shenanigans from Hoid, which kind of happened D3. Does anyone ping you as being e! motivated this cycle? ---- Vote count Mistfallen (3): Ash, Wahr, Stick, Dive (2): Araris, Hael Burnt (2): Archer, Dive Wonko (1): Doc Stick (2): Mistfallen, Wonko TJ (1): Burnt Interesting that the confirmed villagers are sticking with Mist. On the whole, something I noticed is that both Burnt and Mist have expressed a willingness to be exed and go into the dead doc. Is that something elims want this cycle? I suppose the question is if we win would the exed players or nk'd players be more under suspicion. My gut was to say I'd investigate the exed because the elims don't have control of that. But is there a world where an elim would get themselves exed d1 because that's the day we'd probably pay least attention to? I'm retracting on Wonko. Glad to see you driving discussion again. Willing to vote on Burnt. Of the two Australians, Burnt has been more active in thread, but said less - though pressure this cycle has her saying more. Though as I say that Hael's back in with a vote on Dive. They're both equally fair game in my book. Interested to see what Hael has in the morning. ---------------- Thistle relaxed into Cindra's hug, tears unexpectedly pricking at their own eyes. Yes, she knew Cindra, had confided in her, even if they hadn't really... had a conversation before today? But Cindra's own cheeks were wet... what was going on with today? "Flower crowns sound great!" Thistle chirped. "Do you have a color in mind? a specific bloom? Why don't you come around to my shop -" Thistle blinked as Zymni left their shadow to tug insistently at Cindra's leg. "Oh, my apologies," They smiled at Cindra "Zymni really doesn't like being out in the sun, Why don't we talk at my shop?" A quick glance at their shadow, "Is that alright with you, Zymni?" --- Inside Fairy Flowers, Thistle hurried to brew a pot of elderflower tea, having settled Cindra in the sitting room. "So what's got you so interested in our musician, Zymni?" "Also, are you thinking warm or cool flowers for her hair? Warm safflinas to complement or cool to set it off?" Not particularly, that's my problem That's why I'm inclined to think Mist and Accusers are v!, nobody is pushing, therefore the elims are happy with the current climate
Archer he/him Posted March 1 Posted March 1 30 minutes ago, The Unknown Medallion said: Not particularly, that's my problem If you pick someone to vote on, I'll be your +1 * @DrakeMarshall Side note on masks, I think it's best to keep them secret because the elims need to know who is safe to NK (non explosive). Anyone know how many they need to NK this cycle?
Through the living Wahr He/Him Posted March 1 Posted March 1 (edited) If we kill no elim they need 3 kills again: 4 x 2,5 = 10 12 - 3 = 9 If we kill one elim they need 5 kills 3 x 2,5 = 7,5 12 - 5 = 7 @Archer Edited March 1 by Wahrheitswächter
Archer he/him Posted March 1 Posted March 1 1 hour ago, Wahrheitswächter said: If we kill no elim they need 3 kills again: 4 x 2,5 = 10 12 - 3 = 9 If we kill one elim they need 5 kills 3 x 2,5 = 7,5 12 - 5 = 7 @Archer While I appreciate you showing your work, your numbers are meaningless to me. I'll assume they plan to kill N1 and N2 to avoid disaster from hitting the delayed death or action block mechanics. I'll also assume they only plan on shooting those with under 20 rupees, so people like TJ might be shot for us.
Myst He/Him Posted March 1 Posted March 1 (edited) 9 hours ago, Burnt Spaghetti said: huh? Didn't you say you bought a red mask? Shouldn't you like, be one of the poorer players around right now? It counts all rupees earned and spent, I’ve gotten max each cycle so far (Edit: besides, if I hadn’t sent PMs, I’d be able to get another red mask) 3 hours ago, Doc12 said: Ok, clearly I missed a lot >> You should have received two, yeah. @Archer can you confirm? So. I think I really like Drake's performance. Asking questions in thread and making uninformed assumptions to get corrected makes for a compelling village read. Leaving that aside for now. We're getting different CWs to Mist, which is good for options. I think as others have pointed out it does seem like a bit of an overreaction - as LGs tend to go, the first wagon usually doesn't last because people get worried halfway through the day. Love the player historically known for not voting til the last few cycles calling me out Not sure what you want me to say about it. I suppose I do like to vote later in a cycle because more information also making ties are fun, but I voted early this cycle! Yeah, looking back my votes have been off-train, and you can argue that voting for Hoid Slayer and TJ would do nothing, but for the first I was hoping for EoD shenanigans from Hoid, which kind of happened D3. Does anyone ping you as being e! motivated this cycle? ---- Vote count Mistfallen (3): Ash, Wahr, Stick, Dive (2): Araris, Hael Burnt (2): Archer, Dive Wonko (1): Doc Stick (2): Mistfallen, Wonko TJ (1): Burnt Interesting that the confirmed villagers are sticking with Mist. On the whole, something I noticed is that both Burnt and Mist have expressed a willingness to be exed and go into the dead doc. Is that something elims want this cycle? I suppose the question is if we win would the exed players or nk'd players be more under suspicion. My gut was to say I'd investigate the exed because the elims don't have control of that. But is there a world where an elim would get themselves exed d1 because that's the day we'd probably pay least attention to? I'm retracting on Wonko. Glad to see you driving discussion again. Willing to vote on Burnt. Of the two Australians, Burnt has been more active in thread, but said less - though pressure this cycle has her saying more. Though as I say that Hael's back in with a vote on Dive. They're both equally fair game in my book. Interested to see what Hael has in the morning. ---------------- Thistle relaxed into Cindra's hug, tears unexpectedly pricking at their own eyes. Yes, she knew Cindra, had confided in her, even if they hadn't really... had a conversation before today? But Cindra's own cheeks were wet... what was going on with today? "Flower crowns sound great!" Thistle chirped. "Do you have a color in mind? a specific bloom? Why don't you come around to my shop -" Thistle blinked as Zymni left their shadow to tug insistently at Cindra's leg. "Oh, my apologies," They smiled at Cindra "Zymni really doesn't like being out in the sun, Why don't we talk at my shop?" A quick glance at their shadow, "Is that alright with you, Zymni?" --- Inside Fairy Flowers, Thistle hurried to brew a pot of elderflower tea, having settled Cindra in the sitting room. "So what's got you so interested in our musician, Zymni?" "Also, are you thinking warm or cool flowers for her hair? Warm safflinas to complement or cool to set it off?" You are aware that this isn’t a tie? (edit: I know Burnt got max rupees that first two days, but I don’t remember about day 3. It is possible this is a tie, in which case it’s either random or comes down to who gets the most rupees today, and I get 6 from today so far) Edited March 1 by Mistfallen Soldier
Amanuensis he/him Posted March 1 Author Posted March 1 (edited) To be clear, when you lose a Mask to a Loop reset, it no longer counts for tie breaking. Sorry much like real life, an asset is only valuable when you physically own it Otherwise things get really awkward when calculating and players who fall behind in one early Loop have less catch up potential Edited March 2 by Amanuensis 1
Through the living Wahr He/Him Posted March 1 Posted March 1 17 minutes ago, Archer said: While I appreciate you showing your work, your numbers are meaningless to me. I'll assume they plan to kill N1 and N2 to avoid disaster from hitting the delayed death or action block mechanics. I'll also assume they only plan on shooting those with under 20 rupees, so people like TJ might be shot for us. The village needs at least a times 2,5 parity to win the loop meaning for every elim alive there needs to be 2,5 villagers alive at the end of the Loop. Now the first lines of my two calculations show: Number of surviving elims times 2,5 equals the threshold for our Win, the elims want us lower than that. The second lines of my two calculations show: Number of total villagers minus killed villagers equals maximum number of survivng villagers for an Elim win this loop Hope that helps
Myst He/Him Posted March 1 Posted March 1 9 minutes ago, Amanuensis said: To be clear, when you lose a Mask to a Loop reset, it no longer counts for tie breaking. Sorry much like real life, an asset is only valuable when you physically own it Otherwise things get really awkward and players who fall behind in one early Loop have less catch up potential That changes things, but more in the direction that I’m going out instead, I see… well, I have plans either way.
Ashbringer he/him Posted March 1 Posted March 1 Mistfallen Burnt Haircut time then I’ll actually make something of substance
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