Long Game 104: The Flame of Tar Valon

[Sart he/him]

I should have listened to my gut.

[Kasimir he/him]

@Aeternum - What's your view of the likelihood Brown Ajah is just Black Ajah in a trenchcoat?

Instinct here is I dislike the Hopper push and feel it was a defensive train to TUF. Need to reread cycle to firm up my views.

My Ash read has been based on our Ajah doc where he seems to have genuine flashes of PTA which is more V!Ash consistent.

Slightly feel Aet was discouraging TUF votes last cycle and would relook Aet. Both in terms of casting shade on TUF sus and then pushing in Storm/Hopper while paying lip service to TUF sus.

Will have more thoughts later. Just a couple of busy days keeping me from fully locking in.

Edited to add:

Quote

TUF (4): BridgeBoi, Kas, Terrisman, Wiz

ToW (2): TwinStorm, Illwei, 

Aet (2): Ash, TUF

Twinstorm (3): Steel, ToW, Aet

Wiz (1): Stink

Mark (1): Sart

Prior to my TUF move and Wiz switching, we're two votes on TUF with three vote Hopper and Storm votes in the lead. Ngl this feels easily close to classic Village misplay territory—I haven't super agreed on Storm and I've slightly felt it's a classic case of new player-itis + LHF so to have these two be main trains overtaking TUF feels agenda-driven and I'm thus unsure I can agree with Aet's read of the vote dynamics here.

Ash going onto TUF doesn't super faze me because we talked about our views on the trains in the doc and I expressed my dislike of what felt like a stagnant Hopper train pointing to Elim complacency.

[TwinStorm He/Him]

3 hours ago, |TJ| said:

 

Night 2 - A Sitter Stilled Is A Sitter Killed

Sierin knew that once her fellow Brown Sitter lost support of the Hall and was Stilled for it, she was no longer a problem. Some Stilled Aes Sedai would just look longingly at the distance, others... are not so peaceful.

***

The Unknown Flame was exiled! They were a member of the Black Ajah!

Vote Count:

Night 2 has begun and will end on 27th March 2025 on 23:00 hrs.

No. of Votes Required to Raise an Amyrlin Seat - 8/15

Sitters:

  Reveal hidden contents

A Jo in the Bush - Sitter of the Yellow Ajah
Sart - Sitter of the Green Ajah
Terrisman - Sitter of the Grey Ajah
BridgeBoi - Sitter of the Blue Ajah
Steeldancer - Sitter of the White Ajah

Players:

  Reveal hidden contents

1. @The Wandering Wizard - Evelyn Rosemary
2. KelsierApologist - Coprolite Black Ajah
3. @TwinStorm - Melian
4. @Aeternum
5. @Ashbringer
6. @Steeldancer - John Steel
7. @Kasimir - Kamil Lovric
8. The Unknown Flame - Verde Black Ajah
9. @ThatOneWorldhopper - Alkarii Tay'TerTüne
10. @DrakeMarshall
11. @Mark IV
12. @BridgeBoi - Taimon
13. @Terrisman - Terri
14. Teldris Anuar - Tesan Alruddin Hall of the Tower
15. @Sart - Sartala
16. @STINK - Rasmuht
17. @Illwei
18. @A Jo in the Bush - Emmett

3 hours ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

So @TwinStorm what do you say to two of your Ajah members being Black Ajah?

Well, I kinda figured he was an elim, and glad my vote was right, but still, now I have nobody to talk to, and all the (admittedly little) info they gave me was probably wrong, which kinda sucks, but now I'm glad that my Ajah ability is completely in my hands

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

A dangerous ability the Brown Ajah is to be in the hands of one person

[Aeternum]

Dropping some thoughts for my future reference:

TUF was consensus at the end of n1 - this push was led by Kas, and a lot of people were fine to sheep it. There was basically zero pushback - elims either were already bussing / not trying to save TUF at this point (viable world because iirc Kas had floated the idea of e!TUF late d1?), or just weren't around. I'd say I'm leaning towards the rest of the team being lower impact / less vocal players, but honestly I think I can reasonably see most of the game being considered a low impact player, because fmpov Kas is threadpulling and no one is getting close. That being said, there's a lot of players who are sheeping current thread consensus (consider: when ToW was under more pressure, there was movement there without much reason I think. idk I'm pulling stuff out of my memory and will eventually fact-check it), and some of them I think could/have to be town.

Given TUF was saveable around mid d2 when pressure moved off and we had a 3 way tie for a bit - I'm thinking this supports the idea of low impact team. Some stuff here probably hinges on TwinStorm's alignment and whether wagons were e/v or e/e. In an e/v world, elims weren't online at EoD I suppose? Sort of want to give STINK points for this, but also it would've only tied the wagons. A tie is better than not though, meh. Depends on elim mindset.

Will say that TUF flipping elim gives me pause on TwinStorm and makes me want to look at ToW. In an e!TwinStorm or e!ToW world (not really feeling e/e here), town was on fire yesterday with 2 elims wagoned. Specifically in e!TwinStorm worlds, we had e/e wagons, which is uh, insane and rip the elims. I honestly don't really know what that means in that case lol. Definitely bussing, perhaps could take a look at those who moved to ToW in that case.

The Wandering Wizard dropped an early vote, and a quick skim of Wizard's previous posts didn't really show any prior mention of this n1. Correct me if I'm wrong. Wizard had some ok posts and has felt twice now like he's voted at a crucial moment, but also fits the profile for deepest elim. Didn't look in full, so don't listen to me rn. I dunno, the early vote with no reasoning is bad, when I basically expected elims to walk in and bus given e!TUF means town is crushing the elims and they need someone to get cred to live.

this post (Steeldancer) is bad post-flip. Same with this post (Ash). This was why I felt like thread wanted to move away from TUF fwiw.

ThatOneWorldhopper voted TwinStorm during time when thread was looking away from TUF, which is meh?

Wizard unvoted, which was eh. Puts TUF wagon at one.

Spoiler

21 hours ago, Sart said:

Might as well do a vote count while I'm here.

Vote Count:
TUF (1): BridgeBoi
Mark (2): Sart, Kasimir
TOW (3): Terrisman, TwinStorm, Illwei
Aeternum (2): Ashbringer, TUF
STINK (1): Aeternum
Twinstorm (2): Steeldancer, TOW
No Vote (5): DrakeMarshall, Mark, STINK, Jo, Wiz

 

And then Terrisman brought the wagon back, Kas voted there, and I kind of expect there's bussing after those votes.

The Unknown Flame (6): The Wandering Wizard, TwinStorm, Ashbringer, Kasimir, BridgeBoi, Terrisman

I wrote some stuff about thinking BridgeBoi was an elim, but I'm kind of leaning towards maybe not on a skim of BridgeBoi's posts again - turns out I forgot a lot of their content. Not really sure there anymore.

I have slight concerns on Ash for dropping TUF on a NKA basis, but judging by comments from others, NKA is something Ash does a lot of, and Kas also did this same thing wow almost like I was correct the NK was a distraction. Ash... didn't really have a reason to vote TUF. Probably have more concerns on Ash over Wizard rn, given both are my candidate slots for active elim (whatever is the equivalent term of "deepwolf" here).

While I'm here - was Jo townread for a valid reason n1? Don't really feel like checking, and "Jo made a spreadsheet" is not a valid reason.

2 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

@Aeternum - What's your view of the likelihood Brown Ajah is just Black Ajah in a trenchcoat?

Instinct here is I dislike the Hopper push and feel it was a defensive train to TUF. Need to reread cycle to firm up my views.

My Ash read has been based on our Ajah doc where he seems to have genuine flashes of PTA which is more V!Ash consistent.

Slightly feel Aet was discouraging TUF votes last cycle and would relook Aet. Both in terms of casting shade on TUF sus and then pushing in Storm/Hopper while paying lip service to TUF sus.

Will have more thoughts later. Just a couple of busy days keeping me from fully locking in.

Shrugs. I think it would be funny if true, but also means that there are several pure Ajahs I think? Off of my estimate of how many elims there should be in total (4-5, I've been mentally working with 4 for some reason), that puts 3 in one Ajah and 1 in another Ajah, out of 6 iirc Ajahs. With 5, you've still got half the Ajahs as pure I think. Which is... interesting? If enough people think their Ajahs feel pure, yeah this is viable.

Otherwise it's more like 4 elims spread out across 3 Ajahs (again, half are pure then), or 5 elims across 4 Ajahs. Shrugs? I thought this would convince me out of it, but honestly it feels very possible.

Meh I'm kind of wolfsiding and idc if you kill me for it.

15 alive should be either 13 v 2 or 12 v 3, worse case 11 v 4 I suppose. Minus one for NK.

Idt ToW/BridgeBoi/TwinStorm solves fwiw.

Also while I'm here, Terrisman. Not for Seat, but for not getting Stilled. Wouldn't mind looking at the other Sitters because I've been basically ignoring them (and they've felt fairly nonexistent for the last phase), but definitely think Terrisman is town.

Didn't proofread so if I contradicted myself then lol.

[Steeldancer he/him]

Hm, so I was near convinced that that one or both of Twinstorm and TUF were elims based on the Kasimir vote, but now knowing that if Twinstorm were elim that would make the ENTIRE brown Ajah black, that... doesn't feel right to me? Assuming my initial guess of 4 elims was correct, then that would mean only 2 factions would be infiltrated, and one doesn't even matter, its just owned by the elims. 
So then, if not Twinstorm, then who? Well, I'd cross-reference counter votes from D1 with potential bus votes on D2. I was sleeping or at work so I totally missed the transfer over to a TUF vote, so I'll need to go read that to get a better sense for the votes there. Either that, or it's someone like Stink, who is entirely flying under the radar. In fact, I feel Stink could be a good possible candidate to look into more. 

[Terrisman]

19 minutes ago, Steeldancer said:

Hm, so I was near convinced that that one or both of Twinstorm and TUF were elims based on the Kasimir vote, but now knowing that if Twinstorm were elim that would make the ENTIRE brown Ajah black, that... doesn't feel right to me? Assuming my initial guess of 4 elims was correct, then that would mean only 2 factions would be infiltrated, and one doesn't even matter, its just owned by the elims. 
So then, if not Twinstorm, then who? Well, I'd cross-reference counter votes from D1 with potential bus votes on D2. I was sleeping or at work so I totally missed the transfer over to a TUF vote, so I'll need to go read that to get a better sense for the votes there. Either that, or it's someone like Stink, who is entirely flying under the radar. In fact, I feel Stink could be a good possible candidate to look into more. 

I don’t like Steel (nothing personal obviously. I’m sure you’re a great guy.) I don’t have a real reason but I sorta get bandwagon vibes. I don’t think them voting on Polly meant anything because momentum already swung that way. And his insistence that there is only 4 BA is hugging me too. 
I’m gonna vote SART for now. Would really love BridgeBoi to get stilled at least once and then Steel

[Steeldancer he/him]

Alright, writing this up as I go and read D2
Notably, I was the first one on the Twinstorm vote, and it looks like that train formed while I was gone as well. So, that increases the possibility of elims hopping on after me to avoid a TUF vote. Right away, Worldhoppers vote is shallow at best. Point against them. Looks like others didn't appreciate that as well, though the vote shifted away from them to kill TUF.
Stinks post deflects any attention in a truly classic way. It's a complete nothing of a post. 
Bridgeboi, you don't even do me the honor of putting me on your list at all, at any level. You wound me.
Illwei, I know I've said my trust of Gaea extends to you, but your choice of voting Twinstorm there at the end is concerning (assuming a V/E train). 
Stink continues to be vague lmao. I'm not sure what I'm really expecting, this is how Stink plays. Very casually. 
Aeternum, what the actual heck is that vote. 

Okay takeaway. So, I'm going to assume that there was at least one villager in Brown, just because it makes more sense to me. So for now, I'm taking my suspicion off of Twinstorm, despite the Kas vote. The person I'm now most interested in is TOW. Let's go look at day 1... oh and look at that, they voted alone on Ashbringer. That would fit an elim voting mentality. Let's look a bit more into it
TOWs first post makes a pretty direct theory on elim strategy. Its at least possible this is just a reflection of their actual strategy. Its still fairly early, so elim strategy hadn't been overly discussed in thread quite yet. 
...TOW, I see you went back and edited your previous votes to green. This isn't necessarily wrong or anything, but in the future, just keep em red, and indicate the green unvote in your post where you change your vote. Makes it slightly less confusing when all your votes are green. 
Alrighty, found what I was looking for, the vote where TOW votes on Ashbringer. And their reasoning is, "You're trying to get us to vote for the people who had one vote."
...
Yeah I'm gonna be very onboard with a TOW vote tomorrow. 
Edit: Also, canonically, I can't be stilled. I'd be what is referred to as, gentled, which is technically a different process. Yes, I only refound this out when I was doing some reading of a wiki to research a bit for my RP. 

Please ignore all the canon issues and put them up to John not knowing jack squat about Aes Sedai. 

Edited March 27, 2025 by Steeldancer

[Aeternum]

Both TwinStorm and TUF were wolfreads for me is elimreads a thing, it bothers me with the inconsistency.

My vote still supports my worldview. Think all top wagons I liked flipping. Shrugs.

I put wagons at 1 off of a tie to see if anyone would go to save one over the other, and no one went to tie it (probably because tying it atp would look terrible, if an elim was online and not voting there already).

[Steeldancer he/him]

3 minutes ago, Aeternum said:

Both TwinStorm and TUF were wolfreads for me is elimreads a thing, it bothers me with the inconsistency.

My vote still supports my worldview. Think all top wagons I liked flipping. Shrugs.

I put wagons at 1 off of a tie to see if anyone would go to save one over the other, and no one went to tie it (probably because tying it atp would look terrible, if an elim was online and not voting there already).

I mean... I guess I could have seen myself doing something similar. D2 I was just fine seeing a Twinstorm or TUF flip. So, under that light I guess its fine. Though
I GOT MY EYE
ON 
YOU

18 minutes ago, Terrisman said:

don’t like Steel (nothing personal obviously. I’m sure you’re a great guy.) I don’t have a real reason but I sorta get bandwagon vibes. I don’t think them voting on Polly meant anything because momentum already swung that way. And his insistence that there is only 4 BA is hugging me too. 
I’m gonna vote SART for now. Would really love BridgeBoi to get stilled at least once and then Steel

 Excuse me I did no such bandwagoning. I broke a tie D1, and started a vote D2. I am an independent person, tyvm. I feel all my votes have had decent logic behind them. Also, man I wish I was brave enough to break a tie to kill my own teammate D1, but I think that's a bit crazy unless I had a pretty large team. Which, I don't believe is the case. As for the Twinstorm vote, I honestly would have been fine voting TUF or Twinstorm, based on the Kasimir vote, as has been the primary motivation for my vote analysis so far. But since we had just stilled TUF, I figured watching him for another cycle wouldn't hurt anything, so Twinstorm's flip seemed more appealing to me. I was sort of planning to vote one the D2 and then the other the next. Assuming Brown isn't all BA, then I guess I was just wrong about specifically Twinstorm. Though, I'll still be keeping an eye on them just in case, there will be no hard clears from me. I can't say whether I would have changed my vote to TUF or not, since I wasn't here when that all happened. 
And look, I could totally be wrong about there being 4 elims. Its just, if I were GMing the game, that's the size of the team I'd be running. But I'm not running the game, so it's an educated guess. 

[Terrisman]

21 minutes ago, Steeldancer said:

Edit: Also, canonically, I can't be stilled. I'd be what is referred to as, gentled, which is technically a different process. Yes, I only refound this out when I was doing some reading of a wiki to research a bit for my RP. 

We don’t know that. We all assume you’re a woman

[Steeldancer he/him]

Well we all know where assuming gets us 

[Kasimir he/him]

2 hours ago, Steeldancer said:

Edit: Also, canonically, I can't be stilled. I'd be what is referred to as, gentled, which is technically a different process. Yes, I only refound this out when I was doing some reading of a wiki to research a bit for my RP. 

2 hours ago, Terrisman said:

We don’t know that. We all assume you’re a woman

I'll lock in for actual game stuff later. Have to rush two things today. Am considering revealing my Ajah as it impacts some of my reads, most notably to do with my Sitter. Anyway. @Ashbringer + Sitter, LMK in doc or not. Don't have time to say this in two places at once.

Canonically this is already pretty problematic because saidin and saidar don't gel. An Aes Sedai cannot see an Asha'man channel (without that late book discovered weave anyway), while women can detect each other embracing saidar so the fact that no one can ever detect John channelling is a major question mark  But you know, I'm just running with it because it's pretty damn hilarious, I'm just pointing out that if we cared about canon from the start, the fact he's using saidin is already the problem.

Edited to add:

3 hours ago, Aeternum said:

I have slight concerns on Ash for dropping TUF on a NKA basis, but judging by comments from others, NKA is something Ash does a lot of, and Kas also did this same thing wow almost like I was correct the NK was a distraction.

Which is why I mentioned NKA the way Ash does it and the way I picked up from him aims to identify the specific player who put in the kill and doesn't rule out other players who may very well be teammates  Which Ash also confirmed. It doesn't identify the team, it identifies the specific hitman.

Which is why I say this here as well:

On 3/25/2025 at 12:33 PM, Kasimir said:

Oh okay. Honestly I think you could've been overridden by a teammate on this. I know you're willing to yield the kill. But I would definitely not say the kill points to you. I kinda think it doesn't. 

I also dropped TUF for a bit because I don't like walking into a cycle with one player already gonna die, it just screws with anything the Village can get done that cycle - for all Illwei said TUF was a foregone conclusion, I think the trains were pretty stagnant on TOW and Storm for a bit, indicating there was quite a real possibility TUF wouldn't die until I decided that no, I'd parked on Mark for long enough and he wasn't coming back and that vote wasn't provoking any response from potential teammates that I could tell.

3 hours ago, Steeldancer said:

Yeah I'm gonna be very onboard with a TOW vote tomorrow. 

I have major concerns about Steel making this push, similar to Aet backing it yesterday, and that's because I struggle to see a world where TOW wasn't the CW to TUF, and it kind of beggars belief a little (though possible) that Village would be allowed to call the shots on all the trains. I'll re-read TOW later and I really need to get back to work now.

For the moment: Jo but I am probably going to switch later into the Night. I don't have time and am just going to work with N1 Kas's beliefs for now.

4 hours ago, Aeternum said:

but definitely think Terrisman is town.

I'm curious why you're so confident on this given Terris of all the Sitters would gain from bussing their team and getting elected as a Black Ajah Amrylin. I don't super lean towards that world right now, but I would think that possibility would at least give you pause before being confident about Terris.

[Kasimir he/him]

Edited to add 2:

7 hours ago, Aeternum said:

BridgeBoi should be Stilled today imo. Absolutely not voting in a Seat when we're winning - there is no point in taking the risk.

I'll point out and this interfaces with @Terrisman's concern - BridgeBoi is not getting Stilled today regardless because Storm voted for him last Night, meaning that we never even had a case where the Stilling hit BridgeBoi. Currently, any attempt to Still BridgeBoi bounces off him and hits the next least voted Sitter. If Sart et al use the Green Ajah ability, we get two Stillings instead which ngl I'm not thrilled about because I don't want us to rush into the Amrylin Seat election. (Sorry Jo, since you're the one who wants it, but I'm not feeling it.)

Edited to add 3:

Whoops. Sorry for double post, thought this would merge. Back to work for real.

Edited March 27, 2025 by Kasimir

[|TJ| he/him]

Announcement: 

Unfortunately, something came up IRL and Jo needs a pinch-hitter as well. As I do not have a pinch-hitter as of now, if Drake does not post by the end of the cycle, I will have to remove both Drake and Jo from the game at the end of this cycle. 

[Kasimir he/him]

Just now, |TJ| said:

Announcement: 

Unfortunately, something came up IRL and Jo needs a pinch-hitter as well. As I do not have a pinch-hitter as of now, if Drake does not post by the end of the cycle, I will have to remove both Drake and Jo from the game at the end of this cycle. 

But not Mark?  

[Aeternum]

37 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I'm curious why you're so confident on this given Terris of all the Sitters would gain from bussing their team and getting elected as a Black Ajah Amrylin. I don't super lean towards that world right now, but I would think that possibility would at least give you pause before being confident about Terris.

Terrisman is extremely pure. Shows really good intent and focus on solving. Extrapolate off of this because I don't feel like towncasing.

I'm an extremely paranoid person and have been on and off considering if I'm getting fooled very well, and then Terrisman will say something that makes me fine to lock in the read. So me being confident should say something imo.

21 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Edited to add 2:

I'll point out and this interfaces with @Terrisman's concern - BridgeBoi is not getting Stilled today regardless because Storm voted for him last Night, meaning that we never even had a case where the Stilling hit BridgeBoi. Currently, any attempt to Still BridgeBoi bounces off him and hits the next least voted Sitter. If Sart et al use the Green Ajah ability, we get two Stillings instead which ngl I'm not thrilled about because I don't want us to rush into the Amrylin Seat election. (Sorry Jo, since you're the one who wants it, but I'm not feeling it.)

Edited to add 3:

Whoops. Sorry for double post, thought this would merge. Back to work for real.

That was my initial thought working off of BridgeBoi being pretty squarely in my PoE, but as it turns out, I just forgot a lot of BridgeBoi's content posts. So I kind of retracted that. Interested in looking at the other Sitters as well since I've been mostly ignoring them. There's a lot of people I haven't been paying attention to tbf lol.

Not really paying attention to mech but didn't realize that was how it worked.

[Kasimir he/him]

@|TJ| What happens if the elected Amrylin Seat goes inactive in the middle of deposition?

[Ashbringer he/him]

4 hours ago, Aeternum said:

this post (Steeldancer) is bad post-flip. Same with this post (Ash). This was why I felt like thread wanted to move away from TUF fwiw.

I think you're mixing "start looking elsewhere" as a sense of trying to find other suspicions vs a sense of just dropping E!TUF as an exe possibility entirely. For the most part I wanted to hunt through other things (NKA on my end, where people voted or discussed on another) to see if new info changes anything, rather than just pile votes on TUF and then sit on our hands for 40 hours or something. Hopping back on TUF was always an option within that, especially since I didn't really agree with the other choices of pushes. TwinStorm vs Worldhopper felt more like it stemmed from a miscommunication than anything. 

Obfuscating the two is to some degree the idea, because if I make a really obvious net for Elims to jump into to try and save TUF, then it doesn't work so well. 

4 hours ago, Aeternum said:

I have slight concerns on Ash for dropping TUF on a NKA basis, but judging by comments from others, NKA is something Ash does a lot of, and Kas also did this same thing wow almost like I was correct the NK was a distraction. Ash... didn't really have a reason to vote TUF. Probably have more concerns on Ash over Wizard rn, given both are my candidate slots for active elim (whatever is the equivalent term of "deepwolf" here).

Eh, sometimes I do a lot of it, sometimes not. Depends how mechanically intense the game is and/or how much someone like Kas is pushing me to do NKA  but again, I'd say I have plenty of reason to vote Elim - just not as much reason to suspect him for the Teldris kill. Wiz has jumped on trains faster than I have though, yeah.

(We tend to use Deepwolf, as Elim doesn't have a great simple equivalent. Generally MU/traditional mafia lingo works for people as well here.)

4 hours ago, Aeternum said:

Idt ToW/BridgeBoi/TwinStorm solves fwiw.

(... I take it back, I have no idea what this means.)

3 hours ago, Aeternum said:

Both TwinStorm and TUF were wolfreads for me is elimreads a thing, it bothers me with the inconsistency.

My vote still supports my worldview. Think all top wagons I liked flipping. Shrugs.

I put wagons at 1 off of a tie to see if anyone would go to save one over the other, and no one went to tie it (probably because tying it atp would look terrible, if an elim was online and not voting there already).

(Elim reads or E!Reads, yeah.)

Eh, maybe - but if the idea was to get the votes close enough to entice an Elim to swap the votes, are you sure you could then back-swap before the cycle closed? Because right now you're the closest to doing so.

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

I have major concerns about Steel making this push, similar to Aet backing it yesterday, and that's because I struggle to see a world where TOW wasn't the CW to TUF, and it kind of beggars belief a little (though possible) that Village would be allowed to call the shots on all the trains. I'll re-read TOW later and I really need to get back to work now.

Tbh, if it is E!TOW, there's not a lot of ability for the Elims to call shots on other trains. And having an E/E set of wagons has happened before, whether by the Elim's design or not. But I do need to go back to the TwinStorm vs Worldhopper again as well.

 

... I thought I had something to respond to Steel here but maybe not

 

23 minutes ago, Aeternum said:

I'm an extremely paranoid person

Spoiler

 

[Kasimir he/him]

3 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

(We tend to use Deepwolf, as Elim doesn't have a great simple equivalent. Generally MU/traditional mafia lingo works for people as well here.)

I suggest subwoofer

3 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

(... I take it back, I have no idea what this means.)

He's saying he doesn't think that the set of <Hopper, BridgeBoi, Storm> gives us our last Elims. It would be funny if it did because TUF shows up on high new player % E!teams a lot, like back in QF64 (I think it was 64?) where Stick, Hael, Aman, Mat, and I were Spiderman-pointing at each other and the Elims were the quiet new players. But no, I don't really feel that's correct either.

5 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

I'd say I have plenty of reason to vote Elim

5 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Tbh, if it is E!TOW, there's not a lot of ability for the Elims to call shots on other trains. And having an E/E set of wagons has happened before, whether by the Elim's design or not. But I do need to go back to the TwinStorm vs Worldhopper again as well.

My issue with this is: if E!TOW, isn't the other train here to pack on just V!Storm? They were 3/3 for quite a while until the TUF switch gained momentum. (Unless you think E!Storm also, but in a Hopper/Storm/TUF team, lol wtf is even going on? This team has zero thread control and to me, I usually don't want to assume it's in the quiet/low activity players immediately because that's how you lower the bar for participation and that generally benefits the Elims.) Some of it also boils down to how you feel about the people opening up sidetrains, which admittedly...promissary note but I'm only 20% here until the evening when everything is done.

Edited to add:

My objection to zero thread control is that sure it's rough to fight V!me for thread control but you know, it's also not the sort of thing you just lie down and cede and let me/other Villagers set the exe agenda without remotely trying to contest. It also makes the Teldris kill a bit more ? because that's the sort of kill you make with confidence the thread isn't thoroughly dominating you. I don't super buy the kill was meant to just misdirect because it's a lot harder to gamble on misdirection if you don't have at least one Elim capable of spinning a counter-narrative to FUD - otherwise you're just praying the Village goes in circles, which makes this the #ThoughtsAndPrayers team.

[|TJ| he/him]

44 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

But not Mark?  

Mark voted during N1. If they do not vote in N2, I'll issue a warning. 

36 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

@|TJ| What happens if the elected Amrylin Seat goes inactive in the middle of deposition?

I'll not remove an elected Amyrlin Seat due to inactivity as their role is EITHER game-ending OR would be removed anyway. 

[Kasimir he/him]

For the record, I still think Drake is a Villager but it'd be really funny if Drake flipped inactive Elim.

If we get a Drake flip, please go back and do the D1 analysis, thanks guys. Drake was a major CW too and this should explain some things about Elim D1 disposition. I'll do it if I have the time (SIGH) but everyone should be plugging in his alignment into their reckoning.

Still think V!Jo, but not super sure.

[STINK he/him]

What I'm hearing is that my plan to have an inactive hall master is still in the works

[Terrisman]

I think we should all claim each other at this point. It would be useful to be able to question people about those in their Ajahs. Especially the Sitters. I’m not gonna just force the issue so I won’t claim mine but I think that it actually makes sense at this point.

[Kasimir he/him]

2 hours ago, STINK said:

What I'm hearing is that my plan to have an inactive hall master is still in the works

Oh?

Okay, I'm done for the day so I can take a look at some things. In terms of our current Sitters, I'm probably somewhere like this:

Terris - I still don't really agree with Aet and feel Aet is overcredencing here
Jo / Steel - Steel theoretically voted Polly out*, I guess at this point I should state I obtained Ash's permission to claim because it's mostly in-Ajah interactions that jacked my V!Jo credences earlier (generally our arguing back and forth about which of us should get the nomination for Sitter, and Jo having a really weird segment in our doc during N1 which he later deleted where he screenshot his spreadsheet notes, noted Polly was the only she/her on the player list, and then said he felt bad about Polly getting voted out early. To my mind, it's a very weird tangent and not really one I'd expect an Elim to just casually bring up like that in the doc.)
Sart - I don't think Sart's votes have been great, and I think people are overcredencing him for his comment on delaying the Amrylin election when I think this is a mech stance E!Sart would be happy to point out as well.
BridgeBoi - Self-professed D1 sheeper, but had a ? vote, just didn't really get called out for it due to being Blue Sitter.

I could probably be argued around to switching Sart and BridgeBoi, I'm just not as sure.

Part of the complication here is we're probably losing Jo regardless, so IDK how much sense it makes for me to keep Jo alive. @|TJ| Bhai, where does this fall in terms of OoA - can Jo be Stilled and inactivity removed at the same time? How will you decide between Drake and Jo if you only have one PH?

 

*I think Aet is overcredencing on the idea that someone bussed. In an E!Aet world, I think that's deliberate. I think bussing is possible but my understanding from Drake is that it's just a lot more aggressively a thing on MU than here, and I'm not convinced that a bus happened terribly early because the exes were competitive until late in the cycle. The main thing that appears potentially of concern here for D1 is, as Aet noted, that Polly could have self-presed and seems to have made a Choice not to do so.

Anyway: we have five Sitters left, and IMO, since we have exed two Black Ajah, one of whom was a Sitter, we are probably looking at a maximum of three Black Ajah in the Sitters, meaning there are at least two loss-avoiding tickets [=electable Village Sitters] in this set for us who need to remain in the Set (i.e. we need to keep them alive), unless we want to deliberately elect and despose a Black Ajah Amrylin I guess, lol. That could...also work I suppose?

Damn now I regret we didn't just elect and despose TUF, would've meant we could just play the game normally  

Reconfirming the Yellow Ajah will hold fire tonight if only because I sure ain't pushing that button, and Jo's AWOL.

Edited to add:

I should clarify the Sitters, unusually for me, are ranked in order of read strength. I acknowledge I don't agree with Aet's certainty that Terris is not subwoofing because I can absolutely see a subwoofing Terris, but Terris's votes and pushes have been on point (too on point? IDK.) and it's also not good to just reject that. Jo and Steel are thus in the next tier.

Edited to add 2:

Known Ajah compositions (Black Ajah probably has this or will be tracking anyway, so to hell with it.)

Quote

White:
Steel
Gaewei
Teldris

Brown:
TUF
Polly
Storm

Yellow:
Jo
Ash
Kas

Grey:
Terris

Green:
Sart

Blue:
BridgeBoi