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Posted
12 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

If they aren't told about the swap and you aren't told about their role, what sort of lie could you possibly catch them in apart from if they claimed HT? The fact the HT doesn't know the roles switched and players don't know they were switched means that the main value of HT is forcing players to react to the prospect of a switch, no? Otherwise you just don't value-add to the claim situation. The other half of it is that claiming has one point of value, even before committing to a claim, potentially, that you don't get in a regular SE game, which is that if you made a V/E switch, the former E has more incentive to out themselves, and they wouldn't do that without knowing they got switched.

I was reminded a bit of souls declining to claim until others had claimed in order to force people to commit to things that could be disproven.

But I just looked back, and souls wasn't the troublemaker, the context was kinda different. Your mileage may vary I guess.

16 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Not wrong on the activity front, but the 'not be able to claim later' makes me raise my eyebrows a bit in terms of Coffee's current thread presence.

Oh I see.

I'm reluctant to read into small turns of phrase, but that literally reads like an evil slip tbh.

For a villager claiming their actual role, getting it out there isn't majorly time-sensitive, since they likely shouldn't expect anyone else to try and claim it.

19 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

But also, yeah, @Coffeecat, apologies if you already answered this and I missed it but you implied you found neither Stick nor Aet Villagery, which is what prompted your claiming:

Can you elaborate on this a bit more?

Coffee should still elaborate, but, to be fair, I don't find either of those people villagery either. And didn't, at that point in my reading of the thread.

 

...at some point, I'm going to try and have a think about distro and which roles it would make sense to assign to the NPCs for balance reasons. I'm not going to bother with that now, because I don't feel like it and because it'll be better when we have everyone's claims anyhow.

51 minutes ago, Aeternum said:

Kas/Drake e/e right here :ph34r:

:ph34r::ph34r::ph34r:

Posted
2 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Option 1: Stick started out as Kelsier (Stick does not know the other evil roles)

- If Stick believes she's been swapped, it's in her best interests to claim truthfully, as it is a loss for her and everybody else if the new Kelsier gets executed. *However, Stick is vocally disbelieving in Coffeecat's claim to have swapped her with Aeternum, so this world is a weird one. However, "weird" doesn't disqualify it from being what happened. Agreed here. But even if you disbelieve it, wouldn't you just push outside the swap claim pool (currently just Aet) to be safe?

- If Stick doesn't believe she's been swapped, it probably doesn't hurt that much to claim truthfully, as mindgames ensue about whether Stick is actually Kelsier or a Ministry member. *However, if Stick believes that other people can also figure out she wasn't swapped (which, she probably should believe that in this situation?), then pretending to believe she was swapped actually makes more sense, probably. Because then she can claim "ex" Ministry, and get executed when people figure out that Coffeecat is fake, and win. If she doesn't believe she's swapped, then more pertinently, she needs to push TUO but play Evil enough people turn on her and vote her. Is she really going there right now? IDK. Because focusing attention in the <TUO, Coffee> pool or agreeing to it is actually a bad play for Kelsier!her, I think? She wants to be dead lol. She doesn't win if an Elim gets exed. Not saying it's completely beyond belief for Stick but feel the play niche here is not quite right?

Option 2: Stick started out as Kandra (Stick knows who the ministry members are, but the ministry members don't know Stick -- also, Stick probably just knows which of TUO/Coffeecat is real, bc the liar is either Kelsier, Ministry Member #1, or Ministry Member #2, and Stick knows 2/3 of those)

- If Stick swapped with Ministry!Aeternum, she would likely claim to be ex-Ministry, get Aeternum executed, and then Stick & Aeternum both win gg. Agreed.

- If Stick swapped with non-ministry!Aeternum, well. Either Aeternum was village, in which case Stick is now village and Aeternum is now Kandra, so flagging Aeternum as a jester is pro-village and helps her win condition. Yep. Or Aeternum was Kelsier, in which case Stick is now Kelsier, and claiming to have started as Kelsier makes us more likely to believe that she now has a different role, which helps her win condition. Either way, I kinda feel it makes sense? Possible? I guess there's a whole question here about the value of Stick ccing Aet as well, since that kind of suggests she wants to push the chaos boundary enough I could see her wanting to lay the groundwork for an exasperation exe. I just also feel that ccing Kelsier isn't helpful to Kelsier's ultimate aims because the general reaction to that is 'welp let's not play fugu roulette today, 'tis silly.'

- If Stick doesn't believe she was swapped, see option 1

Option 3: Stick started out as Ministry (Stick and the other Ministry member know each other)

- If Stick swapped with Ministry!Aeternum, then claiming Kelsier makes a lot of sense from Stick. *Then again, by the same measure, it makes less sense that Aeternum would claim to have started as Kelsier in this situation. The point of this is for the 2 ministry members to keep each other alive, and that doesn't work as well if they're both huskying it out over who's the real jester. It works much better if only 1 of them is Kelsier. I don't disagree but that's taken little bandwidth so far, which strikes me as the ideal end-state for an Elim. Maybe that's due to Stick currently being asleep, but I feel this judgement may need to be revised depending on how things develop. The counterpoint here is they would've needed a plan for how to manage that kind of conflict - it's not the sort of thing I can see being pulled as well without a doc because as you point out, it can backfire if they're both huskying it out. They need to push us into the 'let us not vote in them, 'tis a silly place' mindset.

- If Stick swapped with non-Ministry!Aeternum, then claiming to have started as Kelsier is somewhat confusing, because in a village!Aeternum world, Stick only needs to execute Aeternum to win. But well, Aeternum isn't exactly trustworthy. Maybe she assumes Aeternum is Kelsier/Kandra, and plays accordingly. This feels less intuitive to me, though. It does feel a bit like a bit she's committing to, ngl. But in general, fair. It would imply she has low confidence in an Aet read atm.

- If Stick doesn't believes she was swapped, then claiming to have started as Kelsier while shading the person who purportedly swapped her is honestly loltastic, and a viable Ministry strategy for IKYK reasons. I'm not sure if it's the sort of thing Stick would gravitate towards, though, because there are definitely safer options for Ministry!Stick in this scenario. But...she's shading TUO? And Coffee claimed switching her and Aet?

Conclusions: I think what we're witnessing here is just the Kandra and Kelsier getting swapped :P

I'm considering if a Ministry-aligned player is more willing to disbelieve switch claims targeting them. I feel like 'is this a lie/reaction test' is more likely from a Ministry perspective where the opportunity costs of claiming only to find out the HT is lying are much higher. Regardless of your views, this makes Stick seem all the more ??? because she's voting TUO so theoretically believes Coffee but isn't really acting like it - if you believe Coffee, isn't your first problem what your actual new wincon is? This seems to me to imply some tacit level of disbelief/residual suspicion about the switch. Voting TUO is consistent with a Kelsier claim since you're not worried about Kelsier, but like...bruh if I believe I got switched, do I just vote who I think is lying here without caring whether if I became suddenly Evil >:P 

EDIT:

To be clear, I'm willing to be convinced that Coffeecat is the one who's lying and not TUO.

But I think looking in <Coffee, TUO> is probably a better shout right now than looking in <Stick, Aeternum>.

Comments in orange. Brb need to reboot my brain

Joining the pizza corner 😭 

Posted
16 minutes ago, Aeternum said:

Come sit in the corner with me, I'll buy pizza or whatever the equivalent is in Mistborn :P

Era 2 has pizza I think, but era 1 would just be like bread. Yay! Bread!

Posted

Hey @RoyalBeeMage where you at smh, sitting in your elim era again? Lightringer made us a pair again, come talk to me I'm pretty cool if I do say so myself ;)

Also, would it be possible to avoid the cursive-y font for the sake of my ability to read :( wallposts are hard enough as is :P

1 minute ago, LightRinger said:

Era 2 has pizza I think, but era 1 would just be like bread. Yay! Bread!

*in the distance you see some Mistborn guy stealing bread from Nobles cuz he has nothing better to do*

Posted

Lost the message I was working on 😭

 

17 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Not wrong on the activity front, but the 'not be able to claim later' makes me raise my eyebrows a bit in terms of Coffee's current thread presence.

Today is an uncertain day, I have no guarantee when I will be able to access the thread or for how long. So don't look too much into my activity, I am struggling to keep up as it is. At the end of the day I will have more time to read things more in depth.

1 minute ago, DrakeMarshall said:

For a villager claiming their actual role, getting it out there isn't majorly time-sensitive, since they likely shouldn't expect anyone else to try and claim it.

Not really, but while I didn't want to claim before my targets I also didn't want to claim way too late into the day, for information purposes and because like others have said, claiming late when you have a good idea of the NPC distribution isn't very credible. 

 

And like I said earlier, wasn't and still am not sure about how active I can be. 

Spoiler

Also I had just woken up and wasn't sure about life in general

 

Also I feel like kas thinks I'm a good ONW player just because I have played it like, twice. I know the game is fun but I don't really know any strategies.

20 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Can you elaborate on this a bit more?

Stick was claiming jester which does not seem very villagery to me at all, why would a villager claim that even as a joke? This is partly why I didn't want to claim last night, when the only message was one of my targets claiming to be a role they probably weren't, I was waiting for them to confirm they were actually claiming jester, and also didn't realize an evil swapped into good would mean good info for the village until later, which is when I claimed. As for Aet, they weren't claiming anything, but they were reading into other players, which seemed to be a bit suspicious, but honestly I can see might be due to being kelsier. 

 

 

Overall, maybe I should have claimed earlier, either way I am thinking that TUO might be a more neutral role, since I think it would be beneficial for an evil teammate to claim something like Oracle to confirm TUOs role.

Posted
5 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

I was reminded a bit of souls declining to claim until others had claimed in order to force people to commit to things that could be disproven.

I guess my take is I just don't see the logic in it because it's not clear to me where the disproving here comes unless you think a Seeker did a scan. Not impossible but they really should be scanning in the NPC roles, but that's my hot take.

6 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Coffee should still elaborate, but, to be fair, I don't find either of those people villagery either. And didn't, at that point in my reading of the thread.

I didn't, but more Coffee read will also help me work on this issue because if Coffee just seems generally Villagery, then that's fine too. While ONW and BotC are more roleclaim heavy, I think we need to remember basic Village play principles still work here and we shouldn't neglect them either.

9 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

I'm reluctant to read into small turns of phrase, but that literally reads like an evil slip tbh.

I think my mentality just is something like "if you're claiming because of lack of time, but you have plenty of time for thread presence in defending your claim and pushing back against TUO consistently", then something rings false about the original reason for suddenly pushing the claim?

There are, I agree, plenty of mundane reasons for it, but it was the other thing I disliked about the claim.

11 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

...at some point, I'm going to try and have a think about distro and which roles it would make sense to assign to the NPCs for balance reasons. I'm not going to bother with that now, because I don't feel like it and because it'll be better when we have everyone's claims anyhow.

Ngl I spent some time trying to work out if I had a better chance of being a Villager if I tried to peek at an NPC role instead, but no real luck. I finally decided to target you since either you would be Village, we'd be Elim bros, or I'd get to have put you in the bloody loltastic situation of enabling a multi-Kelsier rampage 😛 

I admit your game is what made me wonder if Kelsier was even an actual PC role to begin with.

1 minute ago, Coffeecat said:

Lost the message I was working on 😭

 

RIP :(

I will pour a cold one our for it.

Posted

fun fact: I recently ate pizza with lemons on it.

you won't be surprised to know that it was quite sour

it kinda worked though tbh?

 

anyways, I just wanna submit that just from page 1 of the thread, Stick is never a villager tbh

unless anybody here wants to argue that joking about randing jester and then immediately going "hmmyes I'm actually not going to claim" is pro-village, or that Stick doesn't know what she's doing

Posted
Just now, Coffeecat said:

I just randomly reread the message where Aet said someone messed with their role, how do they know this if they were jester? @Aeternum

ok I vaguely remember Aeternum maybe saying this yep, now you've got me curious 🤔

Posted
Just now, DrakeMarshall said:

fun fact: I recently ate pizza with lemons on it.

you won't be surprised to know that it was quite sour

it kinda worked though tbh?

 

anyways, I just wanna submit that just from page 1 of the thread, Stick is never a villager tbh

unless anybody here wants to argue that joking about randing jester and then immediately going "hmmyes I'm actually not going to claim" is pro-village, or that Stick doesn't know what she's doing

I agree tbh

But Stick is fairly untouchable given the uncertainty around whether Coffeecat actually swapped Stick and I.

You could potentially say that in a world where the swap did occur, I now have a high chance of being elim, but I suppose no one wants to test whether or not the swap went through :D?

Just now, Coffeecat said:

I just randomly reread the message where Aet said someone messed with their role, how do they know this if they were jester? @Aeternum

:P I'll let you read into it however you'd like!

Unfortunately for me, with the swap things, it is no longer applicable hmm.

Not being transparent is definitely not a strong trait I have lol, I'm not good with roles. I just want to be VT 😔

Posted
Just now, Aeternum said:

I agree tbh

But Stick is fairly untouchable given the uncertainty around whether Coffeecat actually swapped Stick and I.

You could potentially say that in a world where the swap did occur, I now have a high chance of being elim, but I suppose no one wants to test whether or not the swap went through :D?

:P I'll let you read into it however you'd like!

Unfortunately for me, with the swap things, it is no longer applicable hmm.

Not being transparent is definitely not a strong trait I have lol, I'm not good with roles. I just want to be VT 😔

Interesting because I would have expected Aet to have just pointed to the Lovers claim.

7 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

fun fact: I recently ate pizza with lemons on it.

you won't be surprised to know that it was quite sour

it kinda worked though tbh?

Sir was it a seafood pizza

Posted
1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

Interesting because I would have expected Aet to have just pointed to the Lovers claim.

Oh that would've been smart

Posted
19 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

No it had like herbs and feta and literal just slices of lemon

Sounds delicious ngl

If sour

But good keep your hands off the salmon

28 minutes ago, Coffeecat said:

I just randomly reread the message where Aet said someone messed with their role, how do they know this if they were jester? @Aeternum

Isn't this in general something you just wouldn't know unless you're the Oracle?

30 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

anyways, I just wanna submit that just from page 1 of the thread, Stick is never a villager tbh

unless anybody here wants to argue that joking about randing jester and then immediately going "hmmyes I'm actually not going to claim" is pro-village, or that Stick doesn't know what she's doing

As I mentioned, I fully expect(ed) her to pass it off as a reaction test. I'm just not giving points for it.

42 minutes ago, Coffeecat said:

Also I feel like kas thinks I'm a good ONW player just because I have played it like, twice. I know the game is fun but I don't really know any strategies.

I'm not really thinking about play skill here - I'm thinking about the likelihood a specific player will fakeclaim. In general, SE players so far struggle at the E side of games like BotC and ONW because they're not very claim-happy. This has led to the need for a specific E playniche when running a game like that.

Taking that background into consideration, I'd normally expect players to be bad at aggressively fakeclaiming off the bat, which gives you Village credit for claiming early.

However, in light of the fact ONW familiarity means I expect you to also know an Elim just has to do it, and you also have comfort fakeclaiming (not just SK Sanderson but also IE in the last game), it's my shorthand for "I can't just give the Village credit for an early claim because E!you would know you gotta do it.)

There's a similar asterisk for TUO which is why I said what I did because I also expect him to be willing to fakeclaim here. It's...a bit unusual for his play, I'll give him that, but quite possible.

58 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

I'm reluctant to read into small turns of phrase, but that literally reads like an evil slip tbh.

Bruv aren't you E!reading TUO's cc off the fact he said 'tentatively' :P

47 minutes ago, Coffeecat said:

Stick was claiming jester which does not seem very villagery to me at all, why would a villager claim that even as a joke? This is partly why I didn't want to claim last night, when the only message was one of my targets claiming to be a role they probably weren't, I was waiting for them to confirm they were actually claiming jester, and also didn't realize an evil swapped into good would mean good info for the village until later, which is when I claimed. As for Aet, they weren't claiming anything, but they were reading into other players, which seemed to be a bit suspicious, but honestly I can see might be due to being kelsier. 

Reading into in what sense?

Posted
3 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Bruv aren't you E!reading TUO's cc off the fact he said 'tentatively' :P

:P

perhaps TUO and Coffeecat are both fake 😔

maybe the Hemalurgic Troublemaker is an NPC role and we've all been had 😔

Posted
4 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Reading into in what sense?

Giving reads as in, 'i think you are v' or 'I am willing to mis/trust this' etc. basically interacting with other players and their alignment without claiming. Not saying that makes them evil, but it doesn't make them villager either

Posted
5 minutes ago, Coffeecat said:

Giving reads as in, 'i think you are v' or 'I am willing to mis/trust this' etc. basically interacting with other players and their alignment without claiming. Not saying that makes them evil, but it doesn't make them villager either

Wow I made reads this game? Good job, me.

Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

:P

perhaps TUO and Coffeecat are both fake 😔

maybe the Hemalurgic Troublemaker is an NPC role and we've all been had 😔

It's definitely possible, depending on balance. Something that interests me is we haven't had an Oracle/Drunk/Seeker claim yet because these guys are our main insight into swap shenanigans or conversion shenanigans. (As a side-note, Aet brought up the prospect of conversion in a non-Villagery way IMO.)

To reiterate:

On 7/3/2024 at 8:50 PM, CadCom said:

Lerasium Spiked - claimed by Kas

Matchmaker - claimed by LightRinger

Leader of the Ministry

Ministry Seeker

Seeker

Spiked - claimed by Drake

Hemalurgic troublemaker - claimed by both Coffee and TUO

Drunk

Oracle

Kandra spy

Hazekiller - Tacit Aeo claim

Kelsier - claimed by both Aet and Stick

Our playerlist is nine players long. Straightforwardly, we lack a claim from @RoyalBeeMage - what's your role?

Non-straightforwardly, one in <Coffee, TUO> and one in <Aet, Stick> is lying.

This means that of our remaining set:

<LeaderMin, MinSeeker, Seeker, Drunk, Oracle, Kandra Spy>, three are NPCs, Royal is one, and Liar (Coffee, TUO) and Liar (Aet, Stick) makes up our last two.

Some trivially true thoughts:

  • Unlikely that <LeaderMin, MinSeeker, and Kandra Spy> are collectively NPCs. This would be a no-win situation for the Village since our win condition is tagged to exeing Elims rather than not exeing Villagers. (Or to put it another way, we can win if three people die and two are Villagers, as long as at least one is Elim.)
     
  • Royal is the only plausible player for <Seeker, Drunk, Oracle.> This is because these are Village roles and Liar (Coffee, TUO) and Liar (Aet, Stick) would be doing something fairly anti-Village by lying here while actually being those roles.
     
  • Slightly risky for all three to be non-NPCs. (I am less sure about this.) This is because in the worst case scenario, LeaderMin converts someone, and I duplicate LeaderMin and convert someone else. This gives us an Elim team size of 6/9, since the NPCs don't vote. To be sure, there are in-between scenarios, but I generally feel that giving the Elims a larger potential voteshare can be risky. I have anywhere between a 1/3 to 1/4 chance of converting. Some of this does depend on whether I'm added to the Elim doc or not.
     
  • Our liars are in <LeaderMin, MinSeeker, Kandra Spy> (trivially true I suppose.) To me, this is suggestive that RBM is a Villager. There's a Kelsier!RBM world I think but that's also a world we don't want to touch - basically stipulating E!RBM requires us to assert that one of the liars is a Villager and that doesn't make too much sense to me, especially because they would have one of three crucial info roles.
     
  • At least one of <Seeker, Drunk, Oracle> must not be an NPC. This is because Village needs info on shenanigans here, and these are all info roles. Arguably, mine and Drake are, but I'd consider us half-info roles because if our win con changes, then the Village doesn't get that info.

Edited to add:

@DrakeMarshall - See, the thing is, you and I and the Seeker are actually fairly high on OoA so while you and the Seeker can catch LeaderMin hijinks, only the Drunk and the Oracle can really identify what happened after switches.

Edited to add 2:

Oh hell. Wait. This really means neither of us got converted huh.

PRAISE THE JA! \o/

Edited by Kasimir
Posted
5 minutes ago, Aeoryi said:

Wait, theres CONVERSION in this game?

Ja save us all

Yup! As if role swapping wasn't confusing enough already... 😔

-----------

Theorycrafting time!

I would not be surprised if Aet/Stick holds an elim (but there's also Kelsier there somewhere) and Coffee/TUO has the other.

Since I don't know my own current role, and don't know which swap claim is true, I would be hesitant to vote within Stick/me.

It's late at night aka early in the morning, so thoughts are not thinking.

me/Stick is impossible - I know what role I randed regardless of what she claims.

TUO/Coffee is unlikely because I somehow doubt two elims choose to cc each other over a presumably town role without some insane gambit planning idk, as I think they would know it would put them under scrutiny and possibly end up being the vote. w/w wagons aren't gonna help them win, so I feel somewhat confident to rule this out unless I missed something.

That leaves:

Stick/Coffee

Stick/TUO

Aet/TUO

Aet/Coffee

Presumably one of TUO/Coffee is telling the truth and is town, the other isn't. Unless they'd like to stop anti-towning.

In e!TUO world, Stick & I swapped, so TUO/me is possible (I read my role this game), and TUO/Stick is not, in my nice isolated scenario.

In e!Coffeecat world, Stick & I did not swap, so me/Coffeecat is impossible (cuz I know my role), and it would have to be Stick/Coffeecat. I think this makes sense, pretty sure I didn't get it backwards.

Looking at other possibilities outside of here:

RBM hasn't appeared yet, so not much there. I am curious, if I'm Kelsier still and we kill RBM, would I win over everyone else? Point being, be careful killing RBM, townies.

Aeo is a bit of a wildcard as usual, so idk.

---------

TL;DR:

Drake, Kas, Lightringer all town

Aeo, RBM idk rn

TUO/Coffeecat v/e

Stick/Aet 3p/(e/3p) <- I do not townread Stick here

----------

e!(Stick/Aet)/RBM world would be very, very funny. And unfortunate.

Aeo not being cc'd isn't necessarily town confirmed, because an NPC can have that role. Drake and Kas seem to have confirmed each other (or maybe they're just both elims together :P bring out the tinfoil!).

In reality, if we (and by we I mean YOU the town) can sort out TUO/Coffee, you should hit an elim. I suppose there's also that Kandra role floating around that I don't want to think about.

Because I am a bit not smart due to the time being I Should Be Asleep, idk, take my 1.5 cents and a slice of pizza :lol:

Be warned, I did not proof read for discrepancies :P

Posted
24 minutes ago, Aeternum said:

Theorycrafting time!

I would not be surprised if Aet/Stick holds an elim (but there's also Kelsier there somewhere) and Coffee/TUO has the other.

aaaaa you keep analyzing yourself in the third person and like I'm pretty sure I did exactly that when I was borderline outed and trolling in one of my games

Posted
1 minute ago, DrakeMarshall said:

aaaaa you keep analyzing yourself in the third person and like I'm pretty sure I did exactly that when I was borderline outed and trolling in one of my games

Well I did claim, didn't I? :P

I'm doing it because if Coffee did switch Stick & I, there is a chance I'm now an elim and don't know, afaik?

It's also kind of just a quirk of mine, someone got mad at me for putting myself in a PoE recently lol, sometimes I think from others' perspectives and don't factor mine in.

Posted
4 hours ago, Kasimir said:

You lose if you Village-side so that makes no sense.

Assuming Coffee is lying then I lose no matter who we exe as long as it’s not me so I don’t see a PtV

4 hours ago, Kasimir said:

You wouldn't know if you were swapped and your previous statement implies that you only just realised you might have been swapped so that doesn't really jive...

According to the possible roles shown at N0 there’s multiple ways u could end up with a different role than u started with so I think it was smart to breadcrumb my starting role for situations exactly like which I thought I was in after coffee claimed a swap. Not sure why you disagree with that as a strategy but I stand by it 

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