QF71: Cycle Three: p a c i f i s m

[DrakeMarshall]

Merrythunder the Witty staggered into the entrance hall this morning, waving around a dueling foil and bellowing drunkenly at the priests responsible for the death of his friend. Nobody had the authority nor the heart to drag Merrythunder away, so they just had to politely endure it. This probably just made the Returned even angrier.

Across the courtyard, an unoccupied palace was quietly renovated throughout the day to serve its new owner. Soon the order of priests who took up residence there would start distributing the official teachings of Ravebringer the Undead. The people of T’Telir were feeling cautiously optimistic.

In the evening, Double the Drifter was struck in the head and killed instantly in a freak Tarachin accident. At least, every single witness unanimously agreed that it was an accident, and corroborated each other’s stories. The priests of the other Returned were beginning to grow concerned about the number of deaths. Rumors went about that they were planning to intervene.

At night, Aeoryi surfaced in the salmon pond, drowned. The salmon pond had always been one of Dawntrue’s favorite spots to linger. The shade of lush gardens, the calming sounds of running water and the wind harp set up nearby, and the collection of favorite art pieces tastefully positioned around all made the pond a good place to meditate. If you ignored the corpse. This was getting personal.

Sunset, then sunrise, a new day.

❁

Archer has died! He was a Priest!

Aeoryi has died! She was a Priest!

❁

 

Vote Tally
Archer (4): Aeternum, RoyalBeeMage, Spark of Hope, The Unknown Ajah
Weaver of Lies (3): Aeoryi, Archer, Kasimir
Spark of Hope (1): Cash67

The turn will end in a little shy of 24 hours.

❁

Participants

1. Aeoryi Priest
2. @Aeternum
3. Archer - Double the Dead Priest
4. @Cash67
5. @Kasimir - Ias, a Salmon Enthusiast
6. Kidpen - Tethan Priest
7. @RoyalBeeMage
8. Spark of Hope -> @Quivil
9. @The Unknown Ajah
10. @TheRavenHasLanded Ravebringer the Undead
11. @Weaver of Lies
12. @Wierdo

Edited May 7 by DrakeMarshall
pinch-hit

[Kasimir]

I said what I said.

[The Unknown Ajah]

Interesting. 

Don't you just love when you build a shiny new tunnel out of conf bias, then it all comes crashing down?

I think I'm looking at Aet, Spark, Wierdo here? Maybe RBM. That's with credences. I could be pretty easily convinced on Cash. Man, I could honestly exe anyone here at this point.

[Kasimir]

A lot of this comes down to Weaver and the vote movements IMO. I don't think it necessitates a Weaver flip but I need to go over it as the Archer train surge could be protective (need to check vote movements), which would indicate an Elim coming into contention, whether via Weaver or elsewhere. 

Wierdo and Weaver both did not vote, which is interesting on Weaver's part given the train volumes, and could be positive (but I'm not willing to push this as much cf. Bee.) I'll start with Cash for that Nero energy but would also consider TUA. Still fitting your kill MO so far imo.

With regard to the purity reads, the last thing I wanted to say was in theory it's fine to have a lot of them if you have a coherent PoE afterwards but if you're left with a pool of players not super consistent with the Kidpen kill, then you should have questions, and that's the energy I was getting off the mass purity reads.

[The Unknown Ajah]

1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

Still fitting your kill MO so far imo.

Fair. I can't really disagree here. Kidpen's pretty eh (but at this point making my teammates decide the first kill practically is my meta), but Aeo is definitely in there. If I had actually been thinking about it I'm not sure if I would have gone for them or you at this juncture.

A factor to consider against me suggesting or agreeing to a Aeo hit is that I might be reluctant. I've seen Aeo die early enough lately for reasons that I largely disagreed with that I would like to think e!me gives her a buffer here. Not sure if I would have thought of it though.

Man, newish elim teams suck when you're not the one on them.

Kas, do you have a PM with Raven? I assume so. 

I haven't used mine out of laziness yet and I'm trying to decide if I should PM him, you, or both. 

[Kasimir]

1 hour ago, The Unknown Ajah said:

I think I'm looking at Aet, Spark, Wierdo here? Maybe RBM. That's with credences. I could be pretty easily convinced on Cash. Man, I could honestly exe anyone here at this point.

I don't disagree with relooking Aet (one of the other players I could see backing an Aeo shot), but I'm reluctant to issue a negative read on the basis of the playstyle 180 and the pushing for an Elim exe D1. Think it's easy to let Village sleepwalk here. 

I guess one final reason I have wrt the purity reads issue is:

Suppose, for the moment, that we can adopt a coarse-grained sift for veterancy:

Veteran: <Archer, Raven, Bee, Aeo, Kidpen, TUA, Kas, Cash>
New: <Aet, Spark, Wierdo, Weaver>

If you italicise Bee because Bee can be either group (third game), it's a bit stark: we regularly pressure in New and a bit out of it, but the people dropping dead are all Veterans. Clearing the New pool and shooting in Vet could be correct but from my POV, it'd have to be a <Bee, Cash, TUA> team. I'm fine voting Cash for now, but if you don't feel you have a coherent team in here, then someone in New has been cleared too quickly. And shooting in a pool the Elims are also happy to clear is probably suggestive there's something wrong going on.

Anyway I've said enough about that.

48 minutes ago, The Unknown Ajah said:

Fair. I can't really disagree here. Kidpen's pretty eh (but at this point making my teammates decide the first kill practically is my meta), but Aeo is definitely in there. If I had actually been thinking about it I'm not sure if I would have gone for them or you at this juncture.

Well, the thing with me most players forget is I don't go for accuracy from the start, but I do lock down the thread, making it hard for Elims to gain thread control, and I correct over time. So I don't get killed too early, but the challenge is when there is a good time to kill me, so as to speak, and that needle is not always threaded correctly.

tldr; I could see either way.

48 minutes ago, The Unknown Ajah said:

A factor to consider against me suggesting or agreeing to a Aeo hit is that I might be reluctant. I've seen Aeo die early enough lately for reasons that I largely disagreed with that I would like to think e!me gives her a buffer here. Not sure if I would have thought of it though.

Fair. I'll take it with a pinch of salt, but I think it does point to the idea whoever agreed to the kill decided to ignore Aeo's post, or just views being NKed as different from being exed.

I'll clarify something now that Archer's dead: Archer wasn't doing it 'for fun' - he was running a reaction test because he made the same observation I did in LG99 which was behind my claiming to have found an Aeo tell - no matter how many games she tells you she plays, she retains a hypersensitivity to voting, and this can help you read her. I chose not to vote her this game because I did not like repeatedly exploiting this response by putting her under pressure just to elicit her yelling and it felt like being cruel (I think I alluded to this in a post), but that factor also did in part influence my Archer read. However, waking up to the test was a bit of a surprise for me, yeah. Archer didn't feel it was worth furth discussing the test/acknowledging it after Aeo's nth post, and I respected that.

Edited to add:

48 minutes ago, The Unknown Ajah said:

Kas, do you have a PM with Raven? I assume so. 

I haven't used mine out of laziness yet and I'm trying to decide if I should PM him, you, or both. 

I have one with Archer and Raven. Also, admitting publicly to which PMs you have probably helps Elims HP hunt, so be careful. I don't necessarily believe the Elims are doing so since they shot Aeo, but am keeping in mind that the Aeo shot is consistent with Raven's HP declaration timing. That being said, I think it is possible we are in an E!HP world, or that there is no HP altogether.

Edited to add 2:

3 hours ago, Aeternum said:

I'm switching my vote to Archer, just based off of what I was reading. Flipping Archer imo gets me a better look at several others.

I want to see this, and question the info-exe framing.

Edited to add 3:

1 hour ago, The Unknown Ajah said:

If Archer’s out I feel a bit more confident about RBM as well. I feel Weaver's probably good.

Why?

Edited May 7 by Kasimir

[Kasimir]

Put in a separate post for length/messiness due to formatting.

C2 Vote Analysis

RAW

Spoiler

Kasimir voted "Bee"
Kasimir unvoted "Kidpen"
Archer voted "TUA"
Kasimir voted "Weaver"
Wierdo voted "Archer "
Wierdo unvoted "Archer"
Cash67 voted "Wierdo "
The Unknown Ajah voted "Archer"
Aeternum voted "RoyalBeeMage "
TheRavenHasLanded voted "RBM"
Archer unvoted "TUA "
Archer voted "Aeternum"
Spark of Hope voted "Archer "
RoyalBeeMage voted "archer"
Archer unvoted "Aeternum "
Archer voted "Aeoryi"
Archer unvoted "Aeoryi"
Archer voted "Weaver"
Aeoryi voted "weaver"
Archer unvoted "Weever" (this did not match any known player so was ignored)
Archer voted "TUA"
Cash67 unvoted "Wierdo "
Cash67 voted "Spark of Hope"
Cash67 voted "@Spark of Hope"
Aeternum unvoted "RoyalBeeMage"
Aeternum voted "Archer"
Archer unvoted "TUA "
Archer voted "Weaver"

BROKEN DOWN

Spoiler

Kasimir voted "Bee"
Kasimir unvoted "Kidpen" [Ignoring as an error - I was indicating Kidpen's flip.]
Archer voted "TUA"
Kasimir voted "Weaver"
Wierdo voted "Archer "
Wierdo unvoted "Archer"
Cash67 voted "Wierdo "
The Unknown Ajah voted "Archer"
Aeternum voted "RoyalBeeMage "
TheRavenHasLanded voted "RBM" [Ignoring as Raven actually cannot vote.]
Archer unvoted "TUA "
Archer voted "Aeternum"
Spark of Hope voted "Archer "
RoyalBeeMage voted "archer"

I want to look at this point because this indicates a place where Archer gained dominance as a train. I think that's intuitively a good breakpoint. 

Quote

Archer (3): TUA, Spark, Bee
Bee (1): Aet
Weaver (1): Kas
Wierdo (1): Cash
Aet (1): Archer

Bee and Spark are both stacking onto the Archer train consecutively. Worth looking at this movement. Also worth going back to look at Wierdo getting on and off and getting voted by Cash for it. The Archer train did not significantly move all Day, it seems.

Spark makes a naked Archer vote with no real reason and is given a purity pass.

I don't necessarily feel it's as clearing as suspicion of Archer was just not even articulated, and new Elims will also struggle to generate authentic-seeming suspicions.

Bee then gloms onto Aeo suggesting an Elim in <Archer, Bee, Aet, Spark> by suggesting it's Archer for randomness.

I actually potentially dislike this even more than I dislike what Spark is doing, because that comes across as trying to manufacture reasons for the vote.

Archer unvoted "Aeternum "
Archer voted "Aeoryi"
Archer unvoted "Aeoryi"
Archer voted "Weaver"
Aeoryi voted "weaver"

Aeo and Archer both vote Weaver for lurking.

Quote

Archer (3): TUA, Spark, Bee
Bee (1): Aet
Weaver (3): Kas, Archer, Aeo
Wierdo (1): Cash

This creates a tie. Weaver leaves without responding, and Archer moves to TUA.

Archer unvoted "Weever" (this did not match any known player so was ignored)
Archer voted "TUA"
Cash67 unvoted "Wierdo "
Cash67 voted "Spark of Hope"
Cash67 voted "@Spark of Hope"

Subsequently, Cash makes the vote that catches my attention by going off-train.

Quote

Archer (3): TUA, Spark, Bee
Bee (1): Aet
Weaver (2): Kas, Aeo
Spark (1): Cash
TUA (1): Archer

Aeternum unvoted "RoyalBeeMage"
Aeternum voted "Archer"

Aet swaps to Archer. Theoretically a saving vote for Weaver, though the margins are good either way. Not really comfortable with the grounds of this vote, considering if I need to rethink Aet tbqh.

Archer unvoted "TUA "
Archer voted "Weaver"

Archer votes Weaver as his best shot at salvation.

Quote

Archer (4): TUA, Spark, Bee, Aet
Weaver (3): Kas, Aeo, Archer
Spark (1): Cash

And that's it - no further movement.

Side-note that the Bee timezone defense is wild to me because Bee and I are nominally in the same timezone.

From my POV, the Weaver train has high purity so there's a solid chance with Weaver, but that isn't really indicative either.

Quote

Archer (4): TUA, Spark, Bee, Aet
Weaver (3): Kas, Aeo, Archer
Spark (1): Cash
No Vote (2): Weaver, Wierdo

People who stand out:

-Wierdo sheeps Raven onto Archer then hops back off again. Doesn't vote for the rest of the cycle or really re-appear. This should get @ more.
-Spark-Bee herding onto Archer. Contextually cannot really be considered protective, but the one-trains in existence at that point are <Bee, Weaver, Wierdo, Aet.>
-Weaver's non-reaction implies either a dgaf or a connection with Aet. I think I've stated elsewhere there's an Aet interaction with Weaver that doesn't look E/E so I gotta recheck that.

I am not sure why I felt this was not E/E. Can kind of see it I guess.

I'll stay with Cash for Nero energy for now. I think theorising an E!Cash world has implications for C1 so I'll go back and check for consistency.

Four dead at this point means eight: 5:3. Misexeing this cycle means lylo. We really do not want to be at lylo because when you hit lylo, every cycle after that is lylo which is annoying af. (There's a 2-team world but we always want to be wargaming for the worst case scenario, not best case.)

If the HP has not already contacted Raven, you should do so. Next cycle is absolutely not the cycle to deal with HP BS because that opens a new level of stress and a new can of wyrms for everyone. Raven is a confirmed Villager, and there is zero excuse not to contact Raven.

[RoyalBeeMage]

is it just me or is roll over getting earlier and earlier?

[Kasimir]

Spark and Bee unlikely E/E together. Leaning Bee as the E of the pair atm. There's an argument E!Bee doesn't shoot Aeo and I'm trying to decide how much I buy it because of the Kidpen shot.

[Kasimir]

@Spark of Hope Would you consider asking for a PH if you're not enjoying it? I believe Quirk signed up as one, which allows you to be replaced instead of having to play on. You'd have to ask within your GM PM but that might form a neat resolution. 

[Spark of Hope]

1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

@Spark of Hope Would you consider asking for a PH if you're not enjoying it? I believe Quirk signed up as one, which allows you to be replaced instead of having to play on. You'd have to ask within your GM PM but that might form a neat resolution. 

Thanks for letting me know

[Kasimir]

@The Unknown Ajah What were your Aet thoughts?

[TheRavenHasLanded]

6 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Merrythunder the Witty staggered into the entrance hall this morning, waving around a dueling foil and bellowing drunkenly at the priests responsible for the death of his friend. Nobody had the authority nor the heart to drag Merrythunder away, so they just had to politely endure it. This probably just made the Returned even angrier.

Across the courtyard, an unoccupied palace was quietly renovated throughout the day to serve its new owner. Soon the order of priests who took up residence there would start distributing the official teachings of Ravebringer the Undead. The people of T’Telir were feeling cautiously optimistic.

In the evening, Double the Drifter was struck in the head and killed instantly in a freak Tarachin accident. At least, every single witness unanimously agreed that it was an accident, and corroborated each other’s stories. The priests of the other Returned were beginning to grow concerned about the number of deaths. Rumors went about that they were planning to intervene.

At night, Aeoryi surfaced in the salmon pond, drowned. The salmon pond had always been one of Dawntrue’s favorite spots to linger. The shade of lush gardens, the calming sounds of running water and the wind harp set up nearby, and the collection of favorite art pieces tastefully positioned around all made the pond a good place to meditate. If you ignored the corpse. This was getting personal.

Sunset, then sunrise, a new day.

❁

Archer has died! He was a Priest!

Aeoryi has died! She was a Priest!

❁

 

Vote Tally
Archer (4): Aeternum, RoyalBeeMage, Spark of Hope, The Unknown Ajah
Weaver of Lies (3): Aeoryi, Archer, Kasimir
Spark of Hope (1): Cash67

The turn will end in a little shy of 24 hours.

❁

Participants

1. Aeoryi Priest
2. @Aeternum
3. Archer - Double the Dead Priest
4. @Cash67
5. @Kasimir - Ias, a Salmon Enthusiast
6. Kidpen - Tethan Priest
7. @RoyalBeeMage
8. @Spark of Hope
9. @The Unknown Ajah
10. @TheRavenHasLanded Ravebringer the Undead
11. @Weaver of Lies
12. @Wierdo

this is... artfully done. i love it.

--------------------------------------------

Dodior... No, Ravebringer was having a bit of a hard time. Nobody had said any useful to him, and what in the world were his advisors doing? and for goodness sakes, he should do something, right?

[Cash67]

7 hours ago, Kasimir said:

A lot of this comes down to Weaver and the vote movements IMO. I don't think it necessitates a Weaver flip but I need to go over it as the Archer train surge could be protective (need to check vote movements), which would indicate an Elim coming into contention, whether via Weaver or elsewhere. 

Wierdo and Weaver both did not vote, which is interesting on Weaver's part given the train volumes, and could be positive (but I'm not willing to push this as much cf. Bee.) I'll start with Cash for that Nero energy but would also consider TUA. Still fitting your kill MO so far imo.

With regard to the purity reads, the last thing I wanted to say was in theory it's fine to have a lot of them if you have a coherent PoE afterwards but if you're left with a pool of players not super consistent with the Kidpen kill, then you should have questions, and that's the energy I was getting off the mass purity reads.

 

6 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Put in a separate post for length/messiness due to formatting.

C2 Vote Analysis

RAW

  Hide contents

Kasimir voted "Bee"
Kasimir unvoted "Kidpen"
Archer voted "TUA"
Kasimir voted "Weaver"
Wierdo voted "Archer "
Wierdo unvoted "Archer"
Cash67 voted "Wierdo "
The Unknown Ajah voted "Archer"
Aeternum voted "RoyalBeeMage "
TheRavenHasLanded voted "RBM"
Archer unvoted "TUA "
Archer voted "Aeternum"
Spark of Hope voted "Archer "
RoyalBeeMage voted "archer"
Archer unvoted "Aeternum "
Archer voted "Aeoryi"
Archer unvoted "Aeoryi"
Archer voted "Weaver"
Aeoryi voted "weaver"
Archer unvoted "Weever" (this did not match any known player so was ignored)
Archer voted "TUA"
Cash67 unvoted "Wierdo "
Cash67 voted "Spark of Hope"
Cash67 voted "@Spark of Hope"
Aeternum unvoted "RoyalBeeMage"
Aeternum voted "Archer"
Archer unvoted "TUA "
Archer voted "Weaver"

BROKEN DOWN

  Hide contents

Kasimir voted "Bee"
Kasimir unvoted "Kidpen" [Ignoring as an error - I was indicating Kidpen's flip.]
Archer voted "TUA"
Kasimir voted "Weaver"
Wierdo voted "Archer "
Wierdo unvoted "Archer"
Cash67 voted "Wierdo "
The Unknown Ajah voted "Archer"
Aeternum voted "RoyalBeeMage "
TheRavenHasLanded voted "RBM" [Ignoring as Raven actually cannot vote.]
Archer unvoted "TUA "
Archer voted "Aeternum"
Spark of Hope voted "Archer "
RoyalBeeMage voted "archer"

I want to look at this point because this indicates a place where Archer gained dominance as a train. I think that's intuitively a good breakpoint. 

Bee and Spark are both stacking onto the Archer train consecutively. Worth looking at this movement. Also worth going back to look at Wierdo getting on and off and getting voted by Cash for it. The Archer train did not significantly move all Day, it seems.

Spark makes a naked Archer vote with no real reason and is given a purity pass.

I don't necessarily feel it's as clearing as suspicion of Archer was just not even articulated, and new Elims will also struggle to generate authentic-seeming suspicions.

Bee then gloms onto Aeo suggesting an Elim in <Archer, Bee, Aet, Spark> by suggesting it's Archer for randomness.

I actually potentially dislike this even more than I dislike what Spark is doing, because that comes across as trying to manufacture reasons for the vote.

Archer unvoted "Aeternum "
Archer voted "Aeoryi"
Archer unvoted "Aeoryi"
Archer voted "Weaver"
Aeoryi voted "weaver"

Aeo and Archer both vote Weaver for lurking.

This creates a tie. Weaver leaves without responding, and Archer moves to TUA.

Archer unvoted "Weever" (this did not match any known player so was ignored)
Archer voted "TUA"
Cash67 unvoted "Wierdo "
Cash67 voted "Spark of Hope"
Cash67 voted "@Spark of Hope"

Subsequently, Cash makes the vote that catches my attention by going off-train.

Aeternum unvoted "RoyalBeeMage"
Aeternum voted "Archer"

Aet swaps to Archer. Theoretically a saving vote for Weaver, though the margins are good either way. Not really comfortable with the grounds of this vote, considering if I need to rethink Aet tbqh.

Archer unvoted "TUA "
Archer voted "Weaver"

Archer votes Weaver as his best shot at salvation.

And that's it - no further movement.

Side-note that the Bee timezone defense is wild to me because Bee and I are nominally in the same timezone.

From my POV, the Weaver train has high purity so there's a solid chance with Weaver, but that isn't really indicative either.

People who stand out:

-Wierdo sheeps Raven onto Archer then hops back off again. Doesn't vote for the rest of the cycle or really re-appear. This should get @ more.
-Spark-Bee herding onto Archer. Contextually cannot really be considered protective, but the one-trains in existence at that point are <Bee, Weaver, Wierdo, Aet.>
-Weaver's non-reaction implies either a dgaf or a connection with Aet. I think I've stated elsewhere there's an Aet interaction with Weaver that doesn't look E/E so I gotta recheck that.

I am not sure why I felt this was not E/E. Can kind of see it I guess.

I'll stay with Cash for Nero energy for now. I think theorising an E!Cash world has implications for C1 so I'll go back and check for consistency.

Four dead at this point means eight: 5:3. Misexeing this cycle means lylo. We really do not want to be at lylo because when you hit lylo, every cycle after that is lylo which is annoying af. (There's a 2-team world but we always want to be wargaming for the worst case scenario, not best case.)

If the HP has not already contacted Raven, you should do so. Next cycle is absolutely not the cycle to deal with HP BS because that opens a new level of stress and a new can of wyrms for everyone. Raven is a confirmed Villager, and there is zero excuse not to contact Raven.

Yeah I can explain the stuff!

Archer: Yeah he was leaning neutral positive for me. Wasn’t ready to place a cot on him yet. He was occasionally offering insight, getting other people to vote and react. He wasn’t doing so with clear intentions, so that made me a little hesitant to clear him. I didn’t want to put my name on the train, but if he got flipped I can go back and see who was attempting to stir things up against him/who was he targeting. 
 

Spark Vote: Really same ish reasons as above, though leaning neutral negative. I want to hear more from her, so I put a vote there to hopefully motivate her this cycle. Speaking of which…..Spark of Hope

All the purity reads makes me a little hesitant. So far I only really half-trust Aet. They are attempting to help the town, and keeping people focused on the discussion (plus they accepted my apology salmon, but that’s for the joke meta, not the actual game). I like what Kas is doing, but I always like what Kas is doing so that’s not much of a tell. Need to see who his analyses target/point out. 
 

RBM has similar vibes to spark, except they talk more, so I’m ok with observing the both of them for this round. Will make a decision on that later. 

I have nothing on TUA, so need to reread their things. Right now, they lean slightly negative for me.

Weaver has been really quiet, so same as Spark and TUA. Might just be new player stuff though. I know I was really silent in my first game until Kas died, then I spoke up and was promptly flipped. Granted the village won next round so that’s alright. Stil want to hear more from you Weaver. Any thoughts are good. 

 

[Kasimir]

2 minutes ago, Cash67 said:

Spark Vote: Really same ish reasons as above, though leaning neutral negative. I want to hear more from her, so I put a vote there to hopefully motivate her this cycle. Speaking of which…..Spark of Hope

Is there a reason you're still voting Spark?

Edited to add:

I just want to remind you that in the worst case world, by your own analysis, we are one cycle away from lylo.

3 minutes ago, Cash67 said:

RBM has similar vibes to spark, except they talk more, so I’m ok with observing the both of them for this round. Will make a decision on that later. 

  You seriously believe we're gonna wanna resolve RBM/Spark at lylo?

[Cash67]

1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

Is there a reason you're still voting Spark?

Yeah I want her to speak up about things while I go reread TUA’s stuff. It won’t stay a final vote unless she is silent or I find a reason to keep it.

[Aeternum]

I'm ngl, that Aeo kill is surprising to me. Not sure specifically what it says, but it makes me think newbie team more. I'm thinking two in Spark/Weaver/RBM now. Can confirm that I'd shoot Kas before Aeo.

10 hours ago, The Unknown Ajah said:

Hey, I do short snappy posts full of wit too.

Honestly, if it's a single paragraph long enough to be two, it probably doesn't matter that much.

Tis ok, I sometimes I have the same problem with Kas's mega posts lol. I'm bad with big fancy wording too. Speaking of which...

8 hours ago, Kasimir said:

I'm referring to the number of times Aet/Aeo have cited something someone in <Spark, Weaver, RBM> have done as evidence of no agenda, largely on the lines they're being upfront in thread/out of their depth in an open way. I don't disagree this could be the case but my mind is also shaped a lot by Szeth's QF and the way everyone cleared Insanity real quick. Reading new players is always especially a minefield.

Can you rephase this lol

[Kasimir]

18 minutes ago, Cash67 said:

Yeah I want her to speak up about things while I go reread TUA’s stuff. It won’t stay a final vote unless she is silent or I find a reason to keep it.

Gonna be blunt bro. Spark has outright said she's not enjoying this game and in my exchange with her, I've suggested she ask for a PH. You can have your views about the "I won't lie" meta (IMO it's an inverse Tani/Quirk 2.0 that has caused problems in the past and can be worth ignoring outright) but I think an 'I don't enjoy this and I am going to step out' is, regardless of Spark's alignment, a reasonable indicator that a vote ain't gonna change the incentive balance.

Edited to add:

18 minutes ago, Aeternum said:

Can you rephase this lol

Essentially I'm saying that most of what you've all been citing on these three players boils down to purity reads. I'm concerned about it for a bunch of reasons, including the threshold for these reads and the resulting team coherence. It surprises me more for Aeo as I have no real you-yardstick besides LG99 but I'm interested in...

Hmm how about this. Why did you play so quiet in LG99? It was clear to me that game you were holding back but difficult to understand extent/why. 

Edited to add 2:

18 minutes ago, Aeternum said:

I'm ngl, that Aeo kill is surprising to me. Not sure specifically what it says, but it makes me think newbie team more. I'm thinking two in Spark/Weaver/RBM now. Can confirm that I'd shoot Kas before Aeo.

Yes and no IMO. The strength of your Aeo town clear last cycle puts you in the shortlist of players who'd choose to NK Aeo, though after Aeo's longpost, that's pretty much a given anyway. Aeo's last push was Weaver, and prior to that, Aeo strongly defended RBM (duh.) I'm considering whether there's a connection kill. Given I had more explicitly committed to V!you than Aeo had, I could see preference reasons for keeping me alive v. Aeo.

I'll put a full disclaimer here that in general I'm not fond of deepwolf para fighting especially close to lylo, but the fact TUA broaches it makes me wanna recheck all my thoughts, especially because I asked about what you expected to gain from an Archer info-vote (waiting on this.)

To some extent, I think there's an argument to be made that there's no necessary reason to worry about deepwolf!you now because if we can take out an Elim this cycle, then killing your partner takes out deepwolf!you anyway, so we don't necessarily need to solve you. That being said, I think, to quote Aman, there's strong reason to believe we had better bloody see red in the flips for next cycle, so that does mean not ignoring things unnecessarily. In general you would still not be the first suspect I'm looking at this cycle.

Edited to add 3:

Conflicted between whether E!Cash pulls off Spark, or just sort of takes the same lazy push and runs with it. 

Edited May 7 by Kasimir

[TheRavenHasLanded]

23 minutes ago, Cash67 said:

 

Yeah I can explain the stuff!

Archer: Yeah he was leaning neutral positive for me. Wasn’t ready to place a cot on him yet. He was occasionally offering insight, getting other people to vote and react. He wasn’t doing so with clear intentions, so that made me a little hesitant to clear him. I didn’t want to put my name on the train, but if he got flipped I can go back and see who was attempting to stir things up against him/who was he targeting. 
 

Spark Vote: Really same ish reasons as above, though leaning neutral negative. I want to hear more from her, so I put a vote there to hopefully motivate her this cycle. Speaking of which…..Spark of Hope

All the purity reads makes me a little hesitant. So far I only really half-trust Aet. They are attempting to help the town, and keeping people focused on the discussion (plus they accepted my apology salmon, but that’s for the joke meta, not the actual game). I like what Kas is doing, but I always like what Kas is doing so that’s not much of a tell. Need to see who his analyses target/point out. 
 

RBM has similar vibes to spark, except they talk more, so I’m ok with observing the both of them for this round. Will make a decision on that later. 

I have nothing on TUA, so need to reread their things. Right now, they lean slightly negative for me.

Weaver has been really quiet, so same as Spark and TUA. Might just be new player stuff though. I know I was really silent in my first game until Kas died, then I spoke up and was promptly flipped. Granted the village won next round so that’s alright. Stil want to hear more from you Weaver. Any thoughts are good. 

 

why spark, especially since she seems to want to leave? 

[Cash67]

19 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Gonna be blunt bro. Spark has outright said she's not enjoying this game and in my exchange with her, I've suggested she ask for a PH. You can have your views about the "I won't lie" meta (IMO it's an inverse Tani/Quirk 2.0 that has caused problems in the past and can be worth ignoring outright) but I think an 'I don't enjoy this and I am going to step out' is, regardless of Spark's alignment, a reasonable indicator that a vote ain't gonna change the incentive balance.

Edited to add:

Essentially I'm saying that most of what you've all been citing on these three players boils down to purity reads. I'm concerned about it for a bunch of reasons, including the threshold for these reads and the resulting team coherence. It surprises me more for Aeo as I have no real you-yardstick besides LG99 but I'm interested in...

Hmm how about this. Why did you play so quiet in LG99? It was clear to me that game you were holding back but difficult to understand extent/why. 

Edited to add 2:

Yes and no IMO. The strength of your Aeo town clear last cycle puts you in the shortlist of players who'd choose to NK Aeo, though after Aeo's longpost, that's pretty much a given anyway. Aeo's last push was Weaver, and prior to that, Aeo strongly defended RBM (duh.) I'm considering whether there's a connection kill. Given I had more explicitly committed to V!you than Aeo had, I could see preference reasons for keeping me alive v. Aeo.

I'll put a full disclaimer here that in general I'm not fond of deepwolf para fighting especially close to lylo, but the fact TUA broaches it makes me wanna recheck all my thoughts, especially because I asked about what you expected to gain from an Archer info-vote (waiting on this.)

To some extent, I think there's an argument to be made that there's no necessary reason to worry about deepwolf!you now because if we can take out an Elim this cycle, then killing your partner takes out deepwolf!you anyway, so we don't necessarily need to solve you. That being said, I think, to quote Aman, there's strong reason to believe we had better bloody see red in the flips for next cycle, so that does mean not ignoring things unnecessarily. In general you would still not be the first suspect I'm looking at this cycle.

Edited to add 3:

Conflicted between whether E!Cash pulls off Spark, or just sort of takes the same lazy push and runs with it. 

 

2 minutes ago, TheRavenHasLanded said:

why spark, especially since she seems to want to leave? 

Ahhh missed the part where she wants to leave. In that case we wait for the PH. 

Spark of Hope

 

[Kasimir]

Just now, Cash67 said:

Ahhh missed the part where she wants to leave. In that case we wait for the PH. 

Spark of Hope

I mean honestly I'd still @ her if we need the votes, especially since we are at lylo, but I kind of also was moving towards V!Spark anyway on the basis of vote analysis.

If PH comes in next cycle and we ML this cycle, we'd be at 3:3. You cannot afford to poke vote at 3:3, it's ML and lose. Don't understand this attitude here?

Edited to add:

Just now, Kasimir said:

especially since we are at lylo,

This should read 'nearing' lylo, as in one cycle from it.

I think that's partly the thing I'm pressuring you/Cash about - you're playing as though there's more time than we really have and I can't decide if this is just a Villager who hasn't internalised the dynamics of the situation yet or an Elim paving the way for a nonsense ML at lylo next cycle or even this cycle.

[Aeternum]

17 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Essentially I'm saying that most of what you've all been citing on these three players boils down to purity reads. I'm concerned about it for a bunch of reasons, including the threshold for these reads and the resulting team coherence. It surprises me more for Aeo as I have no real you-yardstick besides LG99 but I'm interested in...

Hmm how about this. Why did you play so quiet in LG99? It was clear to me that game you were holding back but difficult to understand extent/why. 

a) First game and was mafia, so I was like, oh no I'm going to say something wrong and get killed and that's not helpful

b) I'm shy  

c) You and a bunch of the experienced players are scary lol

d) I hadn't played as town yet, so I didn't even know what that would look like, and see point A

Do you find purity reads less helpful? I wouldn't have considered it at all if I hadn't seen it before as someone's strong pieces of evidence (off of the Shard)

17 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Yes and no IMO. The strength of your Aeo town clear last cycle puts you in the shortlist of players who'd choose to NK Aeo, though after Aeo's longpost, that's pretty much a given anyway. Aeo's last push was Weaver, and prior to that, Aeo strongly defended RBM (duh.) I'm considering whether there's a connection kill. Given I had more explicitly committed to V!you than Aeo had, I could see preference reasons for keeping me alive v. Aeo.

I'll put a full disclaimer here that in general I'm not fond of deepwolf para fighting especially close to lylo, but the fact TUA broaches it makes me wanna recheck all my thoughts, especially because I asked about what you expected to gain from an Archer info-vote (waiting on this.)

To some extent, I think there's an argument to be made that there's no necessary reason to worry about deepwolf!you now because if we can take out an Elim this cycle, then killing your partner takes out deepwolf!you anyway, so we don't necessarily need to solve you. That being said, I think, to quote Aman, there's strong reason to believe we had better bloody see red in the flips for next cycle, so that does mean not ignoring things unnecessarily. In general you would still not be the first suspect I'm looking at this cycle.

I had Archer and RBM paired e/e, and possibly Archer/Weaver. But actually, I think I misread it, and Archer/Weaver should be v/e.

Sometimes I don't even remember what I was thinking, now that I re-read what I wrote yesterday LOL.

[Kasimir]

1 minute ago, Aeternum said:

d) I hadn't played as town yet, so I didn't even know what that would look like, and see point A

Taking Neil's point about self-meta, having gotten the first game under your belt, think you'd try to pull a louder wolf on randing wolf in future?

2 minutes ago, Aeternum said:

Do you find purity reads less helpful? I wouldn't have considered it at all if I hadn't seen it before as someone's strong pieces of evidence (off of the Shard)

It's ironic in a way because I actually somewhat defend them and it's Stick who is more suspicious of them. But taking them at face value, you're committed to a team in Wierdo/Cash/TUA, with a me-side. You'd almost certainly have to swap me in because Cash and Wierdo cross-voted and left the votes there C1, which is weakly suggestive they don't really care about each other's welfare. (You could postulate that they were cool because of TUA, but I don't believe Kidpen stayed at a solid majority to EoD because I moved off Kidpen, so TUA was essentially coming on and gambling someone else would change things. Being content with your team forming 2/3 of the endgame votes through a decent chunk of EoD is way more chill than I plausibly expect!) My question to you is: is this a coherent team/where you gonna push? If not, then there's absolutely a problem with one of your purity reads.

I would say my own experience with them is they can be right or wrong, just like any other form of analysis. I've seen people get Raven right on a purity read and I've seen Aman screw the Village with the Insanity purity read. So it's the implications of this many purity reads that I'm questioning rather than the technique in and of itself.

8 minutes ago, Aeternum said:

I had Archer and RBM paired e/e, and possibly Archer/Weaver. But actually, I think I misread it, and Archer/Weaver should be v/e.

Yeah so how's it informative if/when Archer flips V? Feels like it's only useful info-wise if you pre-flipped Archer E.

[The Unknown Ajah]

First of all: Cash 

Those last couple of posts and interactions felt very off. If I'm getting bad vibes and Kas is seeing logical reasons here, I think this is probably a good shot. 

6 hours ago, RoyalBeeMage said:

is it just me or is roll over getting earlier and earlier?

For me it's literally going to be getting later and later. I'm driving into a different timezone soon.

2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

@The Unknown Ajah What were your Aet thoughts?

I was doing some thinking over rollover. I assumed Archer was v and just went down the player list, Aet came up when I assumed that. Aet also came up when I assumed he was e, so that was my initial reasoning. 

There's also the fact that if Weaver is e, there's no way the Archer train is pure. Well, actually, there's no way the Archer train is pure unless our team is Weaver, Wierdo, Cash.

I'm willing to give RBM the pass currently, so that leaves Aet and Spark. I think at this point, from my perspective, the team make up has to be (v!Weaver Aet/Spark/RBM, Cash, Wierdo. E!Weaver is Weaver, Aet/SparkRBM, (Aet/Spark)/Cash)

Cash is the closest thing to a consistency. Honestly, I don't think exing Weaver at this juncture gives us all that much info. 

But you asked about Aet. I think Aet is the main place to look if Cash flips v and/or Spark does the same. 

Aet does feel very different here, but I think those first few games you're going to feel pretty different regardless, and Aet might have the confidence now to be bolder as an Elim.

So, in short, you asked me my thoughts on Aet and I realized I need to vote Cash. Great job me, so helpful. I'm just going to post this now, maybe I'll get back to it at another point.

[Aeternum]

3 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Taking Neil's point about self-meta, having gotten the first game under your belt, think you'd try to pull a louder wolf on randing wolf in future?

Yeah. I've yet to get that opportunity so I don't know what it would look like specifically. Self-incriminating, aren't I. lol

4 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Yeah so how's it informative if/when Archer flips V? Feels like it's only useful info-wise if you pre-flipped Archer E.

That's true. Rip. I didn't consider that.

5 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

My question to you is: is this a coherent team/where you gonna push? If not, then there's absolutely a problem with one of your purity reads.

What I think is two in Spark/Weaver/RBM, but I'm not sure about Spark bc of the PH thing, so I'll wait on that. I also have not seen much of Weirdo tbh

I don't think purity reads have to be an "aha you're perfectly town" moment, but I do think they help me consider town-y things for them? I've never done purity reads before lol so uhhhhhh yeah mine probably suck regardless.

All in all, I'm not that good at this lol, but trial and error and experience or something like that idk