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Long Game 8: Elendel Gang War


bartbug

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Taliz Duede

Hmm...

Well, there's probably three kandra, 2 of whom have moved on to other bodies. I'm hesitantly going to put a vote on Taliz Duede. I think he might be the Tineye, though I don't have too much backing on that. It's mostly to provoke discussion.

Edited by a smart guy
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I apparently did something right when I voted for Morgan Hanks, he was the only one that I had anything on really so now I'm lost. I know nothing about who the Tineye was but I think that its not among the Koloss Riot members at least. 

 

The question now really is, would the Kandra move to a body to hide among the less active and not accused members, or would they try to take members that have been taking initiative? It is hard to answer, but it may be one of our leads as to where we need to start.

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I would expect the Kandra to go to a quieter player without any suspicion on them. I don't see why they'd steal someone's body who has suspicion on them, so there's that.

Edited by Pupper
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Taliz Duede

Hmm...

Well, there's probably three kandra, 2 of whom have moved on to other bodies. I'm hesitantly going to put a vote on Taliz Duede. I think he might be the Tineye, though I don't have too much backing on that. It's mostly to provoke discussion.

 

To clarify the writeup, Twei = Taliz = me = (former) Lurcher. I can't be the Tineye.

...Normally you're more on the ball than that, Satrams, even if you don't have a lot of time. And you're suddenly less certain about the kandra numbers (I believe your words were "basically guaranteed" last cycle: http://www.17thshard.com/forum/topic/17501-long-game-8-elendel-gang-war/?p=181421). We know you were filling gold, and so wouldn't be safe from attack. Though I would be surprised if the kandra went after you, given you were also filling last night and so they couldn't be sure their kill would go through.

 

In regards to finding our Tineye: Last cycle, Morgan jumped on Araris' vote for Terra, which was the first vote on someone other than him. I suspect this indicates Terra was not possessed by TrelVin at that point. Also, Bunnt put a vote on Morgan at a point where it looked like Morgan could get lynched. Not a throwaway vote to distance each other, and not a bandwagon on a doomed teammate. I believe this indicates Bunnt was (at that point) not a kandra.

 

I'll update my list from last cycle (state of the game at the beginning of cycle 4, immediately after Joe changed bodies)

 

Popeye   Claimed Smoker

Araris      Known former Feruchemical iron

Terra       Voted for by known Kandra, claimed Vanilla

Alron

Jain         Known Feruchemical bendalloy

Tulir         Claimed Vanilla

Taliz        Known former Allomantic iron

 

Kamden

Koll

Bunnt      Vote for Morgan

 

Alim

Satrams  Known Feruchemical gold

Willa        Claimed Vanilla

 

So that's actually narrowed down our suspects a fair bit. First on the list is Alron. What are your thoughts?

 

Edit: crossed out Satrams

Edit2: removed vote, added Tulir and Terra's claimed powers

Edit3: clarified the list

Edited by twelfthrootoftwo
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You have to show the Kandra stuff like that. RP-wise, they torture everything out of you. Hmm, I wasn't thinking that Morgan voted for Terra, seems like I should reconsider. Good job staying on top of who we know for certain is safe, although that number is going down pretty fast. I'm gonna put a vote on Popeye, since we can't really prove smoking, and if he was a smoker then the Kandra could still hide behind that rather than a vanilla.

Edited by Araris Valerian
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First on the list is Alron. What are your thoughts?

Sorry.  Forgot that I was still alive in this game.  At moment I have no thoughts of value.  Each time I think I have something it turns out I'm wrong.

 

However if everyone is telling the truth about their abilities then I think that either Terra or Tulir is the tineye Kandra as it seems unlikely that we would have three vanillas in one group.

 

As for me, I'm not a vanilla.  I would rather not reveal it as then the Kandra will have the information.

 

Taliz, the second to last pm I sent you tells you what my power is if you look at it in the right way.

 

Well, I'm the only one here right now. I'm gonna vote for Terra, partly since thats what I voted for on the last day and I'm out of touch, and partly becuase somebody needed to start conversation or we won't have a lynch today.

You have to show the Kandra stuff like that. RP-wise, they torture everything out of you. Hmm, I wasn't thinking that Morgan voted for Terra, seems like I should reconsider. Good job staying on top of who we know for certain is safe, although that number is going down pretty fast. I'm gonna put a vote on Popeye, since we can't really prove smoking, and if he was a smoker then the Kandra could still hide behind that rather than a vanilla.

Araris, your vote for Terra still counts.  You need to green your first vote for your second to count. 

Edited by Alvron
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Removing my vote from Alron.

 

Good job staying on top of who we know for certain is safe, although that number is going down pretty fast.

Given Morgan's body-hop we don't know for certain that anyone's safe. Including myself and my spiker, if order of actions has spiking before the kandra kill. The list above is of people known to be safe at the beginning of cycle 4 (after Joe moved but before Morgan). I'll edit this into my first post for the sake of clarity.

 

Now, who are the kandra most likely to impersonate?

  • Frequent posters are a risk - they will not be able to post as often
  • In-depth posters are a risk - more content is needed to make the post sound plausible
  • Visible metals are a risk - easy for us to pick (eg why has Jain stopped filling Bendalloy?)
  • Inactive players are a risk - when all else fails, we tend to lynch inactives

So the sweet spot is someone who writes short posts, just often enough that we're not calling them out, without a metal we can identify or track. As a subjective opinion, I consider the players in this category to be Popeye, Terra, Tulir, Koll, Willa, and possibly Alron and Bunnt.

 

Also, for anyone wondering: Kamden was last online 3:05 PM on 10 Sep. The night cycle before the last Tineye message appeared (night 2) began 11:26 AM on 10 Sep. If Kamden is in fact the Tineye, he had 3 hrs 39 mins to put in that message.

 

Also2

 

I'm kinda behind on what happened in this game after that break. Well, since Tulir is next on the list, I'll vote for him.

Well he person with my most actual suspicion is Willa and not Tulir. I set up a code for the spiking and she never confirmed it and has gone inactive.

See what Alron said to Araris.

 

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Well he person with my most actual suspicion is Willa and not Tulir. I set up a code for the spiking and she never confirmed it and has gone inactive.

Huh? We talked about setting up a code, but I don't remember this code actually being set up. I guarantee I'd be using it if it were.

My inactivity is a result of real life being crazy, as I'm know I've said on here multiple times. I've been to two conventions, I work full time, and I've had a ton of other things come up this month that I wasn't expecting. Hence=inactivity. Not that I'm saying don't lynch me. I'm fine with inactives being lynched--it's not like they're contributing anything. I hardly even know what's going on in the game anymore (although, let's be serious: I'm not entirely certain I ever knew exactly what was going on... :P).

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Placing vote on Bunnt.  The last couple of rounds he has tried to deflect attention from the whole Koloss Gang.  That makes me think that he knows more than he's letting on.  As for his voting of Morgen Hanks, the eliminators tend to vote for each other in almost every game as a way of earning trust which is a rare thing in this game.  I could be wrong, (and going by my track record I am) but if I was a Kandra then taking over the body of the one to accuse me would be poetic justice.

Edited by Alvron
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Sell yes, I have been arguing against That the Kandra would take a body among the Koloss Riots because they are risking being blocked. They may certainly doubt that they have done so since they risk hitting a Koloss Blooded and they have both been under suspicion this far so I do not think they would dare. To take my body because I voted for him would have been a good plan if not the risk of the above it is possible, but hardly likely.

This is if he did not have extra knowledge and I know of nothing on about that.

I have not tried to deflect general attention from the gang, mainly trying to argue for that Joe would not have switched here.

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Current Vote tally:

Tulir (3) Alim, Satrams, Alron

Popeye (1) Araris

Bunnt (2) Willa, Tulir

 

 

Alim your vote on Tulir still stands as you didn't green your first vote in the original post.

 

Edit: updated list

Edited by Alvron
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Okay, I've had a little bit of time to do some analysis for the time since Joe switched bodies. I find the most suspicious person to be Bunnt. This is for a few different reasons.

One, I think the kandra will still want to spread out between the factions. That may seem pointless now that PM's are down, but we're most likely to trust the members of our own faction. They're also going to want to spread the deaths and stuff between the factions so no faction pulls too far ahead. The Riots are in a very good position, and I think the kandra would want to infiltrate that.

Two, his first post today was fishy. Mostly the beginning of it. He made sure to mention the fact that he voted for Morgan, as if that should alleviate suspicion of him. However, the one thing we should always remember in this game is that just because you vote for someone evil doesn't mean you're innocent. Even if you're the initiating vote or the one that pushes it past a deadlock. Depending on the circumstances on Team Evil, they can turn on each other if they think it'll get them a firm amount of trust (I did that really early on against Joe in Game 4, just to get myself in a little more with Aonar. And it kind of worked).

Third, he says he has no other suspicions beyond Morgan now that Morgan is gone. It seems like a way to slide under the radar a little more, so people don't ask for his opinion because he's lost, even though he's actually been somewhat paying attention to the game (at least, far more than I've been able to). If someone's paying attention, they'll have some sort suspicion, even if it's slight. And even a slight suspicion is helpful, when the reasons are supplied as well.

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In the interest of me not dying, as I am not a kandra, I will switch my vote to Bunnt, provided that it isn't too late.

 

Edit:  If this makes people distrust me, and ends up wasting a day, I am sorry, but I am not kandra, but have no way to prove that as I started as a vanilla.

Edited by Tulir
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I'm kinda suspicious of Alvron now since the two contenders for tonight's vote are Bunnt and Tulir, but Alvron had already voted for Bunnt with a good reason, so I don't see how switching just to lynch is justified. There are plenty of people that haven't voted yet or that made votes like mine that clearly aren't going to count that should decide for ourselves who gets lynched. Based on how Bunnt has not been very eloquent in his own defense and how Alvron seems to have forgotten that he was suspicious of Bunnt, I will tie us again.

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Long Game 8 Night 5: Golden is the Eye of the Beholder

 

Tulir felt gold flare within her, Her two selves always by her side. She had been forced to go crooked as a politician just to support her constant gold burning, but after she had done so, she never regretted it. In her journey towards becoming a gold savant, she had learned never to doubt or regret her past actions. She could learn from them, yes, but she had to keep herself moving forwards.

 

Even as the others plotted to kill her, she smirked; they had no idea what she could do. Even if they had known that Tulir was a gold misting, they would have no idea the level of control Tulir had over her power. Whereas other gold burners had to look at two specific possibilites, Tulir could control at what point in the timeline the two selves that she saw would split. Tulir could see either result of any choice that she made. It was a very powerful ability.

 

The crowd conspired against her. The votes were cast, and she was found guilty.

 

“No,” Tulir said. “No.” She hastily choosed different turning points in her life, trying to see what she had done wrong, and what she could learn from the past to change the future. The two persons besides her remained the same; bound and terrified, awaiting a painful death.

 

Satrams stood in front of her, face solemn. “We are sorry, Tulir. We need to do this.” They lowered her into a vat of chemicals, a thin net the only thing keeping her from a painful death. “We’re sorry that this is the only way to kill kandra as well.”

 

“Please,” Tulir cried. “Shoot me first, at least. Then you can dump my corpse in the acid.”

Satrams and the rest of the crowd considered. Finally, the shook their heads. “We’re sorry, but we cannot allow you any chance to get any metal. Who knows what you kandra can do with that.”

 

Tulir’s skin touched the acid. She screamed and kept burning gold.

 

“No, please, I’m a gold misting! You need me!”

 

She was dead, and she knew it. Yet she focused on her gold, anything to drive out the agony. The two persons besides her were still the same. There was nothing she could have done.

 

The instant before she died, the versions of herself changed, a horrible corpse scarred and burned by the acid.

 

I’m sorry, Harmony said. You made your choice.

 

Tulir was a gold misting!

 

Votes

Tulir (2) Alim, Satrams

Koll (1) Tulir

Popeye (1) Araris

Bunnt (1) Willa

 

Players

Corrupt Politician:

Popeye

Spike:

Araris

Corrupt Politician:

Terra (Pupper)

Corrupt Politician:

Alron (Alvron)

Corrupt Politician:

Jain (Lightsworn Panda)

Corrupt Politician:

Taliz Duede (twelthrootoftwo)

Koloss Riot:

Kamden (dants)

Koloss Riot:

10. Koll (killersquirrel59)

Koloss Riot:

14. Bunnt (Binnut)

The Set:

Alim (Malliw73)

The Set:

Satrams (a smart guy)

The Set:

Willa (little wilson)

Kandra:

TrelVin (The Only Joe)

MitthRawn (The Gleeman)

 

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