Mid-Range Game 67: 'Twas the Night Before SA5

[Kasimir he/him]

@Winnie the Pookla

Why should I believe you're Village?

[Amanuensis he/him]

I also want to note that v!me seems to be more willing to press Araris than e!me. Will need to work on this in the future (sorry bud)

[Kasimir he/him]

Just now, Amanuensis said:

I also want to note that v!me seems to be more willing to press Araris than e!me. Will need to work on this in the future (sorry bud)

To be less willing to press him or for E!you to be more willing to press him?

[Aeoryi she/her]

I feel like I underestimate e!Araris but hmmmm

[Mat he/him]

5 minutes ago, Ookla the Resolute said:

Ykw I'm just going to Araris

Hi can we not edit votes in pls thanks :D. Barely caught this one

Edited December 15, 2023 by Ookla the Destined

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Just now, Kasimir said:

@Winnie the Pookla

Why should I believe you're Village?

I'd say the main thing is that e!me would have played the NK differently. Of course, with teammates you can't always have your way, but my voice in a doc tends to carry a fair bit of weight.

In terms of my thread contributions, you've kinda got me there. But I'd say that's fairly characteristic of my play in larger games anyhow. I'm the slow-rolling guy that comes out swinging once everyone else gets murdered.

[Aeoryi she/her]

Just now, Ookla the Destined said:

Hi can we not edit votes in pls thanks :D.

I didn't edit that in, I just edited my reasoning in

 

[Mat he/him]

Just now, Ookla the Resolute said:

I didn't edit that in, I just edited my reasoning in

You're good then, I can't read and am glad Kas gave me his tallybot >>

[Coffeecat she/her]

I mean there is evidence for what I'm saying isn't there? Although I can't really explain aeoryi switching to a tie, except perhaps they dont want to seem evil? 

 

I just think it's weird and suspicious that they twice voted on someone other than araris, saving them a possible lynch, while they had clearly put araris in their sus list.

[Amanuensis he/him]

3 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

To be less willing to press him or for E!you to be more willing to press him?

Gonna have to force e!me to be more ruthless to my friendos if v!me gets too mucked up from FoW where it hits this "I need this resolved ASAP" point

[Araris Valerian he/him]

I suppose the uspide of all this is that I'm rather unlikely to get NKed.

4 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Gonna have to force e!me to be more ruthless to my friendos if v!me gets too mucked up from FoW where it hits this "I need this resolved ASAP" point

I may have this problem, which is why those folks tend to see the sharp end of a spike sooner rather than later. Except Kas, who I can always count on to rethink.

[Aeoryi she/her]

5 minutes ago, Coffeecat said:

I mean there is evidence for what I'm saying isn't there? Although I can't really explain aeoryi switching to a tie, except perhaps they dont want to seem evil? 

 

I just think it's weird and suspicious that they twice voted on someone other than araris, saving them a possible lynch, while they had clearly put araris in their sus list.

Have you looked at last cycle eod

[Coffeecat she/her]

Also aeoryi and araris voted close to each other, again feels like a panicky "oh shoot araris could die here, lets prevent that" in the Elim doc

Edited December 15, 2023 by Coffeecat

[Aeoryi she/her]

Just now, Coffeecat said:

Also aeoryi and araris voted close to each other, again feels like a panicky "oh shoot araris could die here, lets prevent that" in the Elim doc

Ikr

[Coffeecat she/her]

7 minutes ago, Ookla the Resolute said:

eod

;-; what's eod

End of day?

[Amanuensis he/him]

Just now, Coffeecat said:

;-; what's eod

End of day?

Yuppie

[neil the beguiled]

24 minutes ago, Ookla the Resolute said:

The thing is, if we exe cash and he flips V, we gets more information than if Araris dies and flips V.

wait why is this the case? if anything araris i feel has had more prominent discussion and input to look back on? meanwhile cash feels more like a shrug atm

[Kasimir he/him]

19 minutes ago, Winnie the Pookla said:

I'd say the main thing is that e!me would have played the NK differently. Of course, with teammates you can't always have your way, but my voice in a doc tends to carry a fair bit of weight.

In what way?

'Cause the thing is, I do seem to remember this kill situation happening for you before in a past game.

19 minutes ago, Winnie the Pookla said:

In terms of my thread contributions, you've kinda got me there. But I'd say that's fairly characteristic of my play in larger games anyhow. I'm the slow-rolling guy that comes out swinging once everyone else gets murdered.

I don't disagree. But I feel like you should be in some way readable or I'm usually more willing to V!read you and you're a solid null rn.

Or maybe I'm tired and cranky.

17 minutes ago, Coffeecat said:

I mean there is evidence for what I'm saying isn't there? Although I can't really explain aeoryi switching to a tie, except perhaps they dont want to seem evil? 

If there is, list the evidence. Here are some points I'd like you to be able to address while you're at it:

• How does an Aeo/Araris team decide they're cool with leaving Aeo to hang during D1 EoD where Aeo couldn't be present and Araris's vote was locked on Archer? Do you think there's a third teammate, e.g. Wiz? Do you think this fits with the overall team then?
• What do you think Aeo's noisiness about Ash D1 is about then?
• Why do you think votes were so stable during all of D1 to the last five hours and only started to pick up towards the end?
• Is there any sort of evidence you would accept as disproving your worldview beyond flipping both Aeo and Araris and checking if they both flip red? If there isn't, do you think your view is falsifiable? If it isn't remotely falsifiable, e.g. because you can account for anything up to a flip, do you think there's a problem there?
• Do you think the fluid nature of Aeo's suspicions represent a lack of commitment and opportunism or do you think they represent a certain dgaf about appearing to have appropriate progression?

Here are my own answers:

• While I think it could be due to teamlock, I think it's unduly reckless for Aeo to leave her vote on herself and go. I think her teammates in generally would dislike this behaviour. I don't see this as being likely.
• I think it's an Aeo idiosyncracy.
• I think it's because no one Evil was being seriously endangered. I think the fact that Aman (likely Village), Neil (maybe Village), Raven (flipped Village), Devo (strong case for Village via Ravenclaw), and Wiz (sus af) were the ones changing votes late into the cycle suggests that the Elims were fine with the state of affairs. This doesn't happen when everyone thinks Aeo and Archer were tied or near-tied.
• In general, I'm okay with E!Araris so this isn't the issue here. I am also open to being convinced that Aeo's votes are in general opportunistic, or that she's using being chaotic as a shield to avoid close scrutiny, or that her overdefensiveness and mention of close game pressure are slips.
• I think the lack of care with regard to the appearance of progression appears a litle more Village to me, as compared to how constrained her suspicions were in MR66. I indicate in particular her 180 on Archer in the EoD of C1, which I think it's reasonable to postulate an Elim wouldn't be so bold about. You are welcome to convince me it's exactly what it says on the tin.

17 minutes ago, Coffeecat said:

I just think it's weird and suspicious that they twice voted on someone other than araris, saving them a possible lynch, while they had clearly put araris in their sus list.

This part is fair.

Edited to add:

16 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Gonna have to force e!me to be more ruthless to my friendos if v!me gets too mucked up from FoW where it hits this "I need this resolved ASAP" point

I can't imagine wanting to  Just let me play for hanging/chill with my bros damnit.

12 minutes ago, Winnie the Pookla said:

I may have this problem, which is why those folks tend to see the sharp end of a spike sooner rather than later. Except Kas, who I can always count on to rethink.

Not. Helping >>

Edited December 15, 2023 by Kasimir

[Amanuensis he/him]

1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

Devo (strong case for Village via Ravenclaw)

Does this change if Ravenclaw was the SK kill?

[Araris Valerian he/him]

2 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

'Cause the thing is, I do seem to remember this kill situation happening for you before in a past game.

Well, perhaps that just shows I'm not in my elim headspace .

[neil the beguiled]

mmmm. cash has a vote off wagon atm while araris is going for self pres atm. @Winnie the Pookla if you got a cash flip rn (of any alignment) where would you look next? where do you go if cash flips w? or t/sk?

[Kasimir he/him]

Just now, Amanuensis said:

Does this change if Ravenclaw was the SK kill?

Yes. But I find it hard to buy that Raven was the Elim kill - requires a lot more collective screwup and would rule out E!Araris.

[Amanuensis he/him]

3 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Yes. But I find it hard to buy that Raven was the Elim kill - requires a lot more collective screwup and would rule out E!Araris.

Is that cause the other Raven is a new player or what? TBH I don’t remember them either this game or in past ones, so the kill feels like an “Elims didn’t want to risk a Brandon block” situation (at least for me).

Tbh I’m sorta leaning v!Wiz for tonal purity vibes, but wouldn’t mind the SK taking him out tonight

Edited December 15, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Kasimir he/him]

Just now, Amanuensis said:

Is that cause the other Raven is a new player or what? TBH I don’t remember them either this game or in past ones, so the kill feels like an “Elims didn’t want to risk a Brandon block” situation (at least for me).

I think the Araris preclusion is stronger: Raven's first game was LG98. It got restarted after N1 (LG98a) because vc errors killed E!Sart, and then Raven got N1ed by CS!Sart during LG98b. Raven's second game was QF69. This is Raven's third game. Araris GMed LG98 - N1ing Raven feels harsh here.

I had considered/theorised it. Like yeah tactically killing a returning or new player would guarantee no block and no overlap. But...

Is it worth it? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Really? It's a community principle for a reason. Sure, I get there are extenuating circumstances, but. I kinda think Araris cares about that, enough to not do it. He certainly cared when I mentioned in MR66 that Wit was on his first game, even if I was wrong.

2 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Tbh I’m sorta leaning v!Wiz for tonal purity vibes, but wouldn’t mind the SK taking him out tonight

If I were SKas, I would, just because I can't get over him ._.

[Aeoryi she/her]

2 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I think the Araris preclusion is stronger: Raven's first game was LG98. It got restarted after N1 (LG98a) because vc errors killed E!Sart, and then Raven got N1ed by CS!Sart during LG98b. Raven's second game was QF69. This is Raven's third game. Araris GMed LG98 - N1ing Raven feels harsh here.

I had considered/theorised it. Like yeah tactically killing a returning or new player would guarantee no block and no overlap. But...

Is it worth it? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Really? It's a community principle for a reason. Sure, I get there are extenuating circumstances, but. I kinda think Araris cares about that, enough to not do it. He certainly cared when I mentioned in MR66 that Wit was on his first game, even if I was wrong.

If I were SKas, I would, just because I can't get over him ._.

Anyway won't be on EoD tell me what happens and if I die look more at TKN/Cash/Laby