Long Game 96: KKC in the Modern Age

[Mat he/him]

No sabotage again is pretty ??? ngl

Like I can buy they forget once, but twice?

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

8 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

No sabotage again is pretty ??? ngl

Like I can buy they forget once, but twice?

Well, if TJ submitted it for some reason, I believe expulsion roleblocks you. Or Szeth put in the kill and got called home. Again.

[Ashbringer he/him]

Oh so that's why you didn't want me to do [Sandwich] 

I got roleblocked this turn. Not entirely sure what to do with that, I'm out of the loop on behind the scenes things. But it does make Szeth Szeth somewhat more appetizing to me.

[Kasimir he/him]

[TAG: DISCUSSION, 470 words]

On 8/9/2023 at 0:53 PM, Matrim's Dice said:

No sabotage again is pretty ??? ngl

Like I can buy they forget once, but twice?

Bunch of possibilities here, yeah. In an Araris/TJ/Szeth team, TJ can't put in the sabotage (or if he did, it'd fail) and I trust TJ to be savvy enough to know this. So Szeth was likely DK. In a world where we're looking at something like that team, I'd expect Elims to try to kill me - E!Szeth, E!Ash for instance would probably have a harder path to victory as the survivor and I think he needs to kill within the group because obviously, killing in <Sart, STINK> just makes him the next immediate target.

Another side possibility if they were concerned about killing me was to try to kill Archer. Since Archer is a noble, it's possible the recall affected him. If the target is untargetable, then the kill fails. There's...a similar option there, in which TKN was the target (i.e. TJ decided to actually kill TKN.) The plan or from what I heard, he was supposed to do, was to use Wind to make himself untargetable. IDK if that happened, as TKN said he wanted to uh, spice it up.

Yet another possibility is an E!TJ world, though it makes the Szeth stuff weird. [Edited to add: Meant E!TJ/E!Steel]

Minor crack theory I dreamed of in which Ash and TJ are Cealdim and they killed Drake so they could monopolise his market scheme but tbh IDK man, does "It came to me in a dream" really work in SE  

Spoiler

There's also...

On 8/9/2023 at 1:53 PM, Ashbringer said:

I got roleblocked this turn. Not entirely sure what to do with that

Would E!Ash say this? IMO he'd be forced to claim it, one way or another, but I could be wrong

Either way, I'm waiting on the results from the double-boosted mass scan because oy vey do migraine meds really knock me out for a long while >>

Edited to add:

@Devotary of Spontaneity @Elbereth @little wilson - Notice that TJ's votes on Szeth are missing.

Edited to add 2:

Also, here's why I didn't really believe TJ's double noble Assassin plan - I found an unexpected income source in this game, and I still struggle to hit 30 talents. Couldn't even reach it this cycle.

Edited to add 3:

Maybe let's go this way:

Again, we know there are only three ways the kill misses.

• Did Not Put In Kill - This points to E!Steel as potentially the last Elim IMO.
• Killer Was Roleblocked - This points to E!Ash or E!Szeth or E!Archer or E!TJ, but low credence on E!Archer, low credence E!TJ tried to submit.
• Error 404: Target Not Found - This points to TKN or Archer being the targets. Given the thread's Szeth consensus, there's no way Szeth would be the target.

That's where I am.

Edited to add 4:

True story guys. The GMs borked my elevation the first time, and put me down as Physicking so I did this whole RP about going into Physicking. Then they realised, oh crem, no, it's R&L, I had more EP in R&L, so they put me down in R&L. I had to actually write an unintended RP arc justifying why Kevan suddenly swapped from Physicking to R&L -.-

And then. Last night. El PMs me and goes, "Hey btw do you even have a second action slot."

Me: "Uh, yes? I'm in R&L I have an R&L action slot."
El: "You only have one R&L elevation though???"
Me: :joy:
Me: "Omg not this again ELLLLLL Y'ALL TOTALLY MADE THAT MISTAKE THE FIRST TIME YES IT'S R&L :joy:"

I am never gonna stop making fun of this because I think it is utterly hilarious  

Edited to add 5:

@Ashbringer tbh how do you suppress Paranoid Threnody Ash because I'm struggling. Thanks guys next time I sign up for Mostly Flipless please stop me for my SAN >>

Edited August 10, 2023 by Kasimir

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Unless you think both Mat and me are elims, either of us could have sabotaged the other.

[Kasimir he/him]

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

Unless you think both Mat and me are elims, either of us could have sabotaged the other.

What would be the point of doing so when that doesn't advance your wincon?

Edited to add:

Can I just slack off today and stop fretting >>

Majulah Singapura >>

Spoiler

 

Edited August 9, 2023 by Kasimir

[STINK he/him]

Yeah get back to your RP pal what you doing

[Kasimir he/him]

26 minutes ago, STINK said:

Yeah get back to your RP pal what you doing

Not gonna lie I'm watching our National Day Parade rn because that's what one does I guess and I just saw a filmed segment so awful and cringe I nearly forgot where I was and typed forbidden words that rhymes with what the duck into this thread by accident.

It has now gone into Discord chat with Wyrm instead.

Edited to add:

Ngl strangely emotional to watch our President's last term. Not saying I voted for her because we didn't get an election and that's why people so tilted but tbh I feel like being generally decent, not dying, not having health issues, and not having controversies is an astonishingly low bar we haven't met in the last couple months tbh

Also kinda cool we had a Muslimah pres ngl

And I guess they're right her term kinda sucked lol we got smacked by COVID during it RIP

Edited to add 2: Ngl mildly spicy comment but I'm disappointed that we don't actually get Singai Naadu, not enough people love Singai Naadu

Edited to add 3: Ngl I loled IRL when the next film segment actually captured a damn koel. Bane of everyone who wants to sleep in

Edited August 9, 2023 by Kasimir

[|TJ| he/him]

you said you'd be sleeping kas, smh

Quote

If the game is not over then, then no crem, that means we re-evaluate and continue? I don't understand why you are raising this as a serious problem. This is basic Village play. Even bracketing the scanners, I point out that you, Ash, and Szeth inhabit the lowest tiers of my reads right now. It would be seriously strange for me not to go from lowest tier to upper tier when revising and pressuring!

.....

Again, you talk about proof. I'm interested in why you are obsessed with proof. This was not a concern for any lynch before this, and now the inability to give 'proof' when every normal Villager, in any normal game, has had to prove themselves via their gameplay is significant? I also point out that the lack of proof has not stopped revision of the Mat and TKN reads, even post-expulsion. The game does not end despite the lack of proof. I really find that insistence an Elim tell.

Honestly, it's just frustration because to me, I know the last elims are probably the scanners and the quicker you get your proof the quicker you move to them. Szeth needs to die though yeah. And yeah, lack of proof has not stopped post-expulsion revisions, but let's be honest. It's going to take something really relying for you to move on the scanners. It's like, gahhhh they're right there smhhh. 

And that's why it doesn't matter who I think the team is or if my team is inconsistent. The minute the accusation was made, all I could think of about the team was "the team is whoever is involved in this + szeth". 

[Kasimir he/him]

[TAG: DISCUSSION, 664 words]

15 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

you said you'd be sleeping kas, smh

I had a bad migraine and needed time for the meds to sink in. And then remembered I was doing the count for Wilson and El - due to my volume in this game, it's helpful if I at least take ownership of my own figures for them. So I had to log back in enough to give them my set then pass out.

15 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

Honestly, it's just frustration because to me, I know the last elims are probably the scanners and the quicker you get your proof the quicker you move to them. Szeth needs to die though yeah. And yeah, lack of proof has not stopped post-expulsion revisions, but let's be honest. It's going to take something really relying for you to move on the scanners. It's like, gahhhh they're right there smhhh. 

Again: doesn't that come down to overwriting evidence v. being systematic?

I think, here's the question. Were you, or were you not accusing me of being Evil?

If not, what would it take for you to think I'm Evil?

There must be a point in the game that prompts revision, correct? You have to go from lower suspicions to higher ones. You don't go into a game and immediately whack someone in your higher tiers or that you have reason to chunk into higher tiers 'just in case.' This is obviously bad Village play. You keep bemoaning it'll take me forever to go to the scanners. Yes, but if the scanners are cross-validated, from my point of view, you were low in PoE to begin with. It's not like there was an intuitive reason to V read you. I've pointed out that your behaviour seems pretty E to me and the places where I do V read you aren't strong. I spent a decent chunk of the early cycle trying to decide if you were or weren't being performative and you letting me drive our PMs doesn't really feel like your usual V meta. 

[Edited to add: Lower suspicion tiers - you don't hit trust tiers or even Tier 1/2 if you have Tier 3/4.]

I respect that you wanted to just elevate and stay alive; I definitely did, and even I overwrote those impulses on occasion to push players I thought were Evil because sitting by and watching the Village do stuff or sitting by and potentially voting a player who might be Village, that I would not have voted had I been putting in the work, didn't feel right to me. I don't rule out it's possible but again, your overall read just doesn't seem great and I emphasise that's the problem.

It is not just a matter of a redscan. It is the fact that your read and the scan are both awful. If the read was good and the scan said you were Evil, I would be more tempted to argue that the scan was wrong. But the read is bad, and the scan is cross-validated. So where does that leave me?

Let me rephrase this: give me reasons to V read you. Show me through your subsequent posts that you are Village and I'll be more tempted to reconsider. In either case, I'm waiting for some of the plays and insurance to come through right now.

Imre people, tell me what the existing charges are - are things out of stock in the Apothecary? Any weird contracts? What are the Bodyguard and Assassin costs right now?

15 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

And that's why it doesn't matter who I think the team is or if my team is inconsistent. The minute the accusation was made, all I could think of about the team was "the team is whoever is involved in this + szeth". 

It really does. Because you 180-ed on Szeth with no reason except a theory it must be to buy Assassins. Well, the Imre people will confirm if Assassins were or were not bought. I emphasise I had secret income and even I struggled to hit 30 - I'm not quite there unless I do market shenanigans with Devi. Again, if not Szeth, then who? 

I repeat that if you cannot name a consistent or coherent team, then it does matter because it is suggestive that at this point in the game, you are naming suspicions out of convenience rather than what's actually true.

We're very close to a final few configuration right now, thanks to Szeth and Steel being functionally nonsense, with Szeth refusing to do us even the courtesy of dying. Inability to name a coherent team is indicative and powerful at final few, and the fact you cannot see this or refuse to see this is worrisome.

Edited August 9, 2023 by Kasimir

[Archer he/him]

Jincs was drunk on power. And also alcohol. 

They'd coded some simple bots to spam the replies or the Administration's Tweets with praise for them. "Jincs would find the skindancers, Jincs deserves a six star review..."

It had led to undeserved elevation after undeserved elevation. They'd gone out to celebrate at their favourite bar (the one with the bard - that's a callback, dear reader) and thus been fabulously drunk when their mother called them. 

"Mom, I'm fiine. I'm on the promotion tra(hic!), I don't need to do mure." 

"Your brother made Master in half the time. Are you staying nearby the Administration to catch their eye?" 

Jincs looked across the street at their apartment, which they'd chosen because it was near the bar (with the barred bard). 

"One sec, mom, I think my room just got firebombed. Even worse, I forgot to submit my homework! Gotta go!"

They hung up before their mother's disappointment could ruin their night any further. 

Jincs was briefly recalled! I have mixed feelings about it! 

Szeth Szeth

[Kasimir he/him]

[TAG: DISCUSSION, 402 words]

On 8/9/2023 at 8:08 PM, Archer said:

Jincs was briefly recalled! I have mixed feelings about it! 

Interesting.

Think we can't rule out that Archer was targeted, then. But there's also the very spicy other option.

Archer Archer

I invite you to tell me exactly why I'm kayana. Because I've been PMing a lot of people and absolutely no one is currently willing to tell me I'm kayana and I'm annoyed about it.

Edited to add:

Literally guys is it so bloody hard for y'all to just communicate, in thread or in PMs. Look. It took me hitting 50k to hit this point but I want to solve the game and it's frankly off-putting that not a single damn person is interested in being a thread or PM partner to help me work goddamned crap out.

I am going to spam this thread to the end and beyond if that's what it takes to work this kraem out but where the hell is Aman when I need him damnit

Edited to add 2:

I admit it's annoying insofar as I signed off with a vote manip order left on TJ and I low key feel things could've been better if I'd had the damned sense to just vote manip Archer and Szeth simultaneously - then we'd get pretty clear confirmation of whether a recall happened or not.

Edited to add 3:

Working with ongoing E!TJ credences: with TJ endorsing a Szeth push, I'm curious whether this means an E!TJ/E!Ash team instead. But in an E!TJ/E!Ash world, I'd think that the kill really shouldn't have failed - the failure of the kill is largely only comprehensible in light of E!Szeth or E!Archer. I think TKN is pretty solidly Village in either world.

@Ashbringer - Could you, for clarity's sake, claim your accommodations for the last two Terms? Not interested in this Term, just last two.

Edited to add 4:

FWIW y'all if TJ is Evil and has been just FUDing me and I cause a Village loss, I'm going to blame and judge each and every single one of you who is Village for not fecking talking me out of it.

Look at Mat.

Look at QF62.

Y'all know I am insanely vulnerable to rethinking/overthinking and not a single person as far as I can tell CBA to talk me out of it and tell me I'm kayana and that's seriously goddamned offputting and I'm annoyed af and just want to know what the chulls is going the f on.

Edited August 10, 2023 by Kasimir

[Archer he/him]

Quote

Working with ongoing E!TJ credences: with TJ endorsing a Szeth push, I'm curious whether this means an E!TJ/E!Ash team instead. But in an E!TJ/E!Ash world, I'd think that the kill really shouldn't have failed - the failure of the kill is largely only comprehensible in light of E!Szeth or E!Archer. I think TKN is pretty solidly Village in either world.

@Ashbringer - Could you, for clarity's sake, claim your accommodations for the last two Terms? Not interested in this Term, just last two.

Beep beep that was a bus. They started the round lightly protecting Szeth, although we're probably willing to cut them loose. They then defended themselves, but because it's a scan, distanced 

[Kasimir he/him]

Just now, Archer said:

Beep beep that was a bus. They started the round lightly protecting Szeth, although we're probably willing to cut them loose. They then defended themselves, but because it's a scan, distanced 

How many hours left in the cycle?  

[STINK he/him]

You know I do like the addition of beep beep into talking about buses you should definitely get bonus points for that

[Kasimir he/him]

[TAG: DISCUSSION, 266 words]

Guys.

I think I've cracked it.

@Elbereth confirmed the vote count was correct. But it is not - not as we know it.

TJ voted on Szeth. And those votes are missing. I've asked repeatedly until I think I'm crazy.

On 8/9/2023 at 11:55 AM, little wilson said:

TJ (12) - Kas, Kas, Wonko, Wonko, Archer, Archer, Ash, Ash, Stink, Stink, Sart, Sart

Szeth where???? Quoi??????

Which means that our madlad TJ can't be an artificer. Unless there's something I've gotten wrong, he's actually a Physicker

Quote

• Medica Emergency: Due to a medical emergency, you’re spending a lot of time in the Medica to help out. All actions targeting you fail the turn after you place the action. Cannot be used twice in a row. 

  • First level: You cannot take any other actions, including PMing or filing a complaint. 

  • Second level upgrade: You’ve learned to juggle things a little better, so you can PM, but you still can’t file complaints. 

  • Third level upgrade: You can both PM and file complaints. 

Master level upgrade: You may use your Physicker action period, but all other action periods are still unavailable.

Which has very interesting implications as another player not me claimed to be a Physicker

If Szeth were in the Pony, the votes would appear, just be nullified. Same for any R&L I bring to bear. Recall does not affect complaints, as you can see:

Quote

 You still can be brought on the Horns, file complaints and EP, and be elevated.

People in Imre can still file complaints, as I did.

Now, TJ absolutely did PM me last cycle. I tried to get reads off him. But...

:eyes:

The complaints were not simply nullified. They did not appear at all.

For reference, these are TJ's Szeth votes:

Edited to add:

I think it's also possible he could be Artificer-rushing, or he's the actual Alchemist, not Ash, meaning an Ash/TJ team. Unsure about feasibility. I'm going to try to validate the Physicker results.

Quote

Alchemy and Artificery students are able to create items. Items can be kept by the student who made it, or they can be given away to other players. Each item in those fields requires students to be a certain level before they can make that item. Items take 2 action periods to create. This can be spread through one turn or two. If a student uses two action periods in a single turn to make an item quickly, they will not be able to file a complaint or impress a Master (flavor-wise, because they’re too busy creating the item to focus on anything else) or take any other actions. If an item has an insanity bonus on creation (which it usually does), this will only apply for the turn of actual creation (not a previous turn that was only a partial creation).

Edited to add 2:

Possible he lied and has rushed bone-tar. Would recommend a roleblock on him to ensure no further shenanigans.

Edited to add 3:

Cancel that, he can't have. Wouldn't recommend a roleblock or...hmm, let's think this through.

P.S. I hate the fact that this game has made me pull out the one technique I never wanted to use smh y'all I leave work at work I don't want to do link analysis here >>

Edited August 10, 2023 by Kasimir

[STINK he/him]

See Kas doesn't include any sound effects in his posts and that's just missing out on something good

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

3 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Archer Archer

I invite you to tell me exactly why I'm kayana. Because I've been PMing a lot of people and absolutely no one is currently willing to tell me I'm kayana and I'm annoyed about it.

Kas, you're kayana. I can't say why in thread, but you are.

[STINK he/him]

Kasana 

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

28 minutes ago, STINK said:

Kasana 

Kasasa?

Also, @Kasimir, should note that it was still very early morning for most of the US when you posted that, and it still isn't a particularly active time of day.

[Kasimir he/him]

[TAG: ANALYSIS, 1295 words]

23 hours ago, STINK said:

See Kas doesn't include any sound effects in his posts and that's just missing out on something good

U called, I came.

SkaDOOSH!!

Collated:

Spoiler

#1. Assume E!TJ world.

Logical space for TJ partners: <Mat, Kas, TKN, JNV, Wonko, Drake, Ash, Szeth, STINK, Araris.> 

Removing every player I have strong Village credences in - this is purely exploratory, hence ignoring my tiers. TKN, Wonko, JNV, Drake were hit.

Logical space for TJ partners: <Mat, Ash, Szeth, STINK, Araris.> 

Chart doesn't consider inaction: TJ was very chill about Mat and Szeth getting voted D1. This is a bit more explainable with Szeth than with Mat.

Quote

Archer (2): Araris Valerian, Drake
Matrim's Dice (2): Steeldancer, Drake
Steeldancer (1): Kasimir
Drake (3): Archer, Archer, TKN
Szeth_Pancakes (2): JNV, Ash

Possible that E!team did not realise how DP works, and felt less concerned given presence of lead trains.

Implies at most one Elim endangered T1M1.

Struggling to make sense of complacency around Szeth train. Let's take Mat out but leave Szeth in, italicised.

TJ single-voted STINK T1M3. Araris +1ed, adding to threat on STINK. It's possible that TJ has a decent risk appetite, especially since Sart had an 8-vote monopoly.

Logical space for TJ partners: <Ash, Szeth, STINK, Araris.> 

Exclusions: largely Archer, Sart, and myself, due to pushing TJ.

Since Ash, Szeth, STINK, and Araris are our prospective TJ partners, let's take a closer look at them.

#2. Assume E!Ash world.

Logical space for Ash partners: <Mat, Kas, Steel, JNV, Wonko, Archer, Drake, Szeth, STINK, Sart, Araris, TJ.>

Exclusions: partial for me and Sart. Again, throwing out strong credences to make this neater.

Logical space for Ash partners: <Mat, Steel, Archer, Szeth, STINK, Sart, Araris, TJ.>

K Ash's problem is he's functionally the team bicycle/LBD. Moving on.

#3. Assume E!Szeth world.

Logical space for Szeth partners: <Mat, Kas, TKN, Steel, JNV, Wonko, Archer, Drake, Ash, STINK, Sart, Araris, TJ.>

Exclusions: full for JNV, partial for STINK and Sart.

Logical space for Szeth partners: <Mat, Steel, Archer, Ash, STINK, Sart, Araris, TJ.>

Tbh anyone because he's deader than a Triton moon. Moving on. Wow this is easier than I expected lol.

#4. Assume E!STINK world.

Logical space for STINK partners: <Mat, Kas, Steel, JNV, Wonko, Archer, Drake, Ash, Szeth, Sart, TJ.>

Exclusions: partial for Araris, full for TJ as this chart doesn't account for last cycle.

Logical space for STINK partners: <Mat, Steel, Archer, Ash, Szeth, Sart>

#5. Assume E!Araris world.

Logical space for Araris partners: <Mat, Kas, TKN, Steel, JNV, Wonko, Drake, Ash, Szeth, STINK, Sart, TJ.>

Exclusions: partial for Ash, full for STINK.

Logical space for Araris partners: <Mat, Steel, Archer, Ash, Szeth, Sart, TJ.>

Quote

• Logical space for TJ partners: <Ash, Szeth, STINK, Araris.>
• Logical space for Ash partners: <Mat, Steel, Archer, Szeth, STINK, Sart, Araris, TJ.>
• Logical space for Szeth partners: <Mat, Steel, Archer, Ash, STINK, Sart, Araris, TJ.>
• Logical space for STINK partners: <Mat, Steel, Archer, Ash, Szeth, Sart>
• Logical space for Araris partners: <Mat, Steel, Archer, Ash, Szeth, Sart, TJ.>

Thoughts:

• TJ has the smallest possibility space for partners, which means if we stick with E!TJ, we are pretty much supposed to look between <Szeth, Ash.> STINK less likely because I think it takes serious balls for an Elim to post an anon message to the write-up in the same cycle TKN hinted it could be scanned.
   
• Mildly offended by how much Ash and Szeth like LBDs.
   
• We know Araris went for Arithmetics during T1M1 EP filing, which runs a little against his claim to ignore Arithmetics. Simply put, this is because Drake had 8 EP in Arithmetics, down to 7 EP during T1M2, and never elevated, implying someone else took Arithmetics. Each student who elevated during that cycle is accounted for and mildly cross-validated, minus Ash and myself. Due to chronology, it is likely Araris was in Imre during T1M2 and did not file then. (He mentioned the velociraptor contract and contracts require a Turn to accept bfeore they can be fulfilled for currency.) Will note I do expect at least one Elim to see the sights in Imre.
   
• As a bonus round, here's the logical space for Sart partners: <Kas, TKN, Steel, JNV, Wonko, Archer, Drake, Ash, Szeth, STINK, Araris.> Exclusions in Mat, Kas, TKN, Wonko, TJ, weak exclusion in Archer. Results are: <Steel, Archer, Ash, Szeth, STINK, Araris.> Araris lightly defending Sart does make him a better partner for Sart. But also feel that Sart's 8-vote monopoly implies it is unlikely he is Evil, as is the way he and TJ gunned for each other in votes.
   
• There is an elevation gap for TJ which makes feel that there is something weird going on: this is because TJ claimed to have started with Arithmetics and pushed for Artificery. If we look at the elevations, TJ elevated in T1M1, not in T1M2, and then in T1M3. There's an inconsistency here, and I'll spell out why. As far as we know, Artificery is a dead field. (If anyone has Artificery EP at all, please tell me.) We know that one field did not have elevations T1M1. And since a player with starting EP in Archives did not elevate during T1M1 - this tells us that someone else must have elevated in Archives T1M1. Furthermore, the fact that despite starting with 8 EP in Arithmetics, later reduced to 7 EP via the Horns, Drake did not elevate at all must imply that both in T1M1 and T1M2 had an Arithmetics elevation. T1M2 is likely Araris, but the interesting question is: why did TJ not elevate in Artificery T1M2? Either there is something spicy with his EP, or someone else had a double elevation (this happened to me T1M3) and then a different field won, so Artificery had no elevations. TJ elevating twice in Artificery subsequently (T1M3, T2M1) suggests that there isn't all that much competition in that field.
   
• The fact that Araris is such a LBD suggests in my view that he's probably Evil. 
   
• Yet another bonus round - this is the logical space for Archer partners: <Kas, TKN, Steel, JNV, Wonko, Ash, Szeth, STINK, Sart, Araris, TJ.> Exclusions in Kas, Wonko, Drake, Araris, TJ, partial in TKN. Culling gives us: <Steel, Ash, STINK, Sart>. Alright, pretty much looks like V!Archer.
   
• Szeth Szeth

Edited to add: Still not over the fact y'all make me do work stuff here >>

Edited to add 2: Low key theorise that Drake was killed because of market manip shenanigans but by that point - we know TJ complained about Drake baiting him which, combined with TJ's speedrun Artificing and the fact he's got Arith and thought a two Assassin plan was possible, makes me think that he was intending to go full market and get Assassins. Think we may need a full Physicking roleblock on him, or to use existing Imre assets to swarm.

Edited to add 3: While Szeth is the LBD, I'm trying to think through some considerations:

• I do think that the playstyle shift could be attributable to a change of alignment.
   
• It's difficult to see E!Szeth with Szeth being on the lam for D1, and then not elevating. If Szeth isn't elevating, and no one else put in any EP, then why not? Potential theory E!Szeth went for Naming I guess - his first elevation was T2M2, which was after TKN and JNV and Wonko had dominated Naming. @The Known Novel and @Wonko the Sane are you able to share your EP for each Turn from the start until T2M2? I'd like to be able to get a sense for how likely this is. If it's unlikely Szeth went for Naming, I think he's more likely V. Because it's strange to me that Szeth would put in a kill (even miss it) and not file EP. It's the sort of thing you'd do together.
   
• Archer teams include Steel, Ash, STINK, weak Sart possibility. The problem is that none of these teams have a reason for Archer to be submitting the kill, which suggests that we don't take this world seriously, thank you.
   
• TJ teams include Ash, Szeth, STINK, Araris. Main world with the missing kill requires Szeth, potentially swapping out Araris for Ash. It's theoretically possible they spent time in Imre trying to sell off for Assassins, I guess, which would burn their regular actions. Still lean more to Szeth and Araris with TJ though.

Edited August 10, 2023 by Kasimir

[|TJ| he/him]

6 hours ago, Kasimir said:

There must be a point in the game that prompts revision, correct? You have to go from lower suspicions to higher ones. You don't go into a game and immediately whack someone in your higher tiers or that you have reason to chunk into higher tiers 'just in case.' This is obviously bad Village play. You keep bemoaning it'll take me forever to go to the scanners. Yes, but if the scanners are cross-validated, from my point of view, you were low in PoE to begin with. It's not like there was an intuitive reason to V read you. I've pointed out that your behaviour seems pretty E to me and the places where I do V read you aren't strong. I spent a decent chunk of the early cycle trying to decide if you were or weren't being performative and you letting me drive our PMs doesn't really feel like your usual V meta. 

I get it bro, I do. From your perspective, I absolutely do. You have to go through tiers and then revise your reads and everything. Yes that's how the village game works. It's just annoying for me is all. Like I said, for me they're right there. 

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

There is an elevation gap for TJ which makes feel that there is something weird going on: this is because TJ claimed to have started with Arithmetics and pushed for Artificery. If we look at the elevations, TJ elevated in T1M1, not in T1M2, and then in T1M3. There's an inconsistency here, and I'll spell out why. As far as we know, Artificery is a dead field. (If anyone has Artificery EP at all, please tell me.) We know that one field did not have elevations T1M1. And since a player with starting EP in Archives did not elevate during T1M1 - this tells us that someone else must have elevated in Archives T1M1. Furthermore, the fact that despite starting with 8 EP in Arithmetics, later reduced to 7 EP via the Horns, Drake did not elevate at all must imply that both in T1M1 and T1M2 had an Arithmetics elevation. T1M2 is likely Araris, but the interesting question is: why did TJ not elevate in Artificery T1M2? Either there is something spicy with his EP, or someone else had a double elevation (this happened to me T1M3) and then a different field won, so Artificery had no elevations. TJ elevating twice in Artificery subsequently (T1M3, T2M1) suggests that there isn't all that much competition in that field.

I filed 4 Artificery EPs in T1M2, so any elevation in Artificery should have happened with 4 or more EPs. 

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Edited to add 2: Low key theorise that Drake was killed because of market manip shenanigans but by that point - we know TJ complained about Drake baiting him which, combined with TJ's speedrun Artificing and the fact he's got Arith and thought a two Assassin plan was possible, makes me think that he was intending to go full market and get Assassins. Think we may need a full Physicking roleblock on him, or to use existing Imre assets to swarm.

Bro, why are you overthinking so much bro. You are freaking out a lot about an expelled player. Look, fine let's consider I'm evil for your perspective. I'm a Yllish Commoner. There is no way I could afford an Assassin. And even if I could, I cannot target players at the University. Please use your resources on the rest of the players. "Full Physicking Roleblock" smh >>

Edited August 9, 2023 by |TJ|

[Ashbringer he/him]

10 hours ago, Kasimir said:

@Ashbringer tbh how do you suppress Paranoid Threnody Ash because I'm struggling. Thanks guys next time I sign up for Mostly Flipless please stop me for my SAN >>

That’s a good question.

My apparent method has been to avoid analysis >>

 

The Shard’s not letting me quote the other thing but Golden Pony -> Windy Tower.

[Kasimir he/him]

1 hour ago, |TJ| said:

Bro, why are you overthinking so much bro. You are freaking out a lot about an expelled player. Look, fine let's consider I'm evil for your perspective. I'm a Yllish Commoner. There is no way I could afford an Assassin. And even if I could, I cannot target players at the University. Please use your resources on the rest of the players. "Full Physicking Roleblock" smh >>

So, would you like to explain why your votes on Szeth are missing, then?

Repeating the call for Imre people to tell me what's out of stock at the pharmacy and to report Assassin and Bodyguard prices. This is important, thank you.

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

3 hours ago, Kasimir said:

are you able to share your EP for each Turn from the start until T2M2

Like 4, then 9, then 14, then 19, then 14 again, then expelled. 

Edit: @Kasimir, still the same for Bodyguard and Assassin, apothecary appears normal, Nahlrout at 1, Courier at 2, Bloodless at 10, and Gram at 15 (shouldn't it be 25?).

Edited August 9, 2023 by The Known Novel