Long Game 96: KKC in the Modern Age

[Araris Valerian he/him]

I have some spare cash if someone in attendance wants to think about hiring an assassin. I’m sure I could cook up some kind of contract to pass a suitable amount. But as a warning, the base cost is now 40 talents. I have a 40% discount though, so if someone wanted to work with me using naming that is also probably an option. Unless I get lucky gambling I can’t hire another one until next term.

[Archer he/him]

7 hours ago, Kasimir said:

. I have made 22 posts over the last cycle and 21 over the previous, and 95 PMs and 45 PMs respectively, 

I do not appreciate being tone policed after reasonable anger at being ignored for one and a half cycles straight 

I get the sense that your anger is about you having heavily committed to the game while everyone else hasn't. You can probably squeeze some more blood from a stone with this tonal approach, but at the end of the day, if you're the only one playing like that, the mistake that was made was that you over committed, relative to the results you can reasonably expect to get back from others for doing so. 

There's a minor issue of your engagement style is bad at allowing for casual commitment because by laying out every option in exhaustive detail and being very good at not missing obvious things, people don't tend to know what to respond with besides agreement, or they consider their less flushed out ideas/reads less worthy of being shared in comparison and so they don't. There's a cost to posting the volume of content that you have, and that's that people start tuning it out. But that's a then issue you're under no obligation to fix. 

Your current tonal approach is diminishing my enjoyment of the game unnecessarily. I understand your frustration with the game state, but feel you don't have the right to be hostile. I'll refer the issue to @Devotary of Spontaneity and move on.

6 hours ago, The Known Novel said:

.

Oh, yeah, Archer, Archer I figure we have a big enough cushion to expel you, then go after more pressing targets if we don't win. I think in a e!you world we win with a you then Stink exe, and in a v!you world we win with a Steel then Stink then potentially Ash exe. And you can keep doing what you're doing while expelled, but with less paranoia.

 

FYI for the thread, I'll make Master next round, so I'm cool with you killing me now to save the trouble next time, assuming we have the runway. I think Steel is a guaranteed kill, which would leave us with one elim left versus like three villagers

6 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

TKN, the problem with the eventually-exe-Ash plan is that Masters can’t be exed…

So I've heard! Would you mind exploding in an experiment sometime? :P. 

7 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

Yeah, I did. I figure a flip is way more valuable than gambling on someone going to Imre.

Edit: In response to a PM I’ve received:

1. Yes
2. Ash
3. Sorta enough

Why Ash? My read is them maxing stats is in line with TJ's activity, so I'm with you on this one, just curious why. Makes sense they're annoyed the stat they reached Master in got announced because it'll be a bad look if they destroy it. 

8 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I mean. How do we know it wasn't a hit? There are more worlds than TJ/Araris/Szeth. There are worlds with four elims, imo. The game not being over doesn't super surprise me. The reason I was fine to sit back with it was because I think we have a large cushion to sit back on. There are, at absolute most, two 'alive' elims, barring e!Archivist or something else super screwy. It's... not exlo, especially with the elim wincon being Kill Everyone 

It's kill everyone? Oh yeah then, we got loads of time

Archer Archer 

[Kasimir he/him]

11 minutes ago, Archer said:

I get the sense that your anger is about you having heavily committed to the game while everyone else hasn't. You can probably squeeze some more blood from a stone with this tonal approach, but at the end of the day, if you're the only one playing like that, the mistake that was made was that you over committed, relative to the results you can reasonably expect to get back from others for doing so. 

There's a minor issue of your engagement style is bad at allowing for casual commitment because by laying out every option in exhaustive detail and being very good at not missing obvious things, people don't tend to know what to respond with besides agreement, or they consider their less flushed out ideas/reads less worthy of being shared in comparison and so they don't. There's a cost to posting the volume of content that you have, and that's that people start tuning it out. But that's a then issue you're under no obligation to fix. 

Your current tonal approach is diminishing my enjoyment of the game unnecessarily. I understand your frustration with the game state, but feel you don't have the right to be hostile. I'll refer the issue to @Devotary of Spontaneity and move on.

FYI for the thread, I'll make Master next round, so I'm cool with you killing me now to save the trouble next time, assuming we have the runway. I think Steel is a guaranteed kill, which would leave us with one elim left versus like three villagers

So I've heard! Would you mind exploding in an experiment sometime? :P. 

Why Ash? My read is them maxing stats is in line with TJ's activity, so I'm with you on this one, just curious why. Makes sense they're annoyed the stat they reached Master in got announced because it'll be a bad look if they destroy it. 

It's kill everyone? Oh yeah then, we got loads of time

Archer Archer 

My anger isn't about overcommitting, thank you. It's about expecting people to even try to do the bare minimum and a single line of analysis or engagement. I invite you to go back and look over the last two cycles. There was none. Absolutely nothing. We had a kneejerk onto Szeth from the very start, no analysis, no engagement whatsoever with the issue, no attempt to think. I would not be this angry if people had honestly tried and been wrong. I would not be this angry if people had even made a single sincere attempt, however short, however lacking. People didn't even bother.

You can refer to to @Devotary of Spontaneity as you like. But I'm not going to sit here and be told dismissivelyit's invalid to be angry my team isn't remotely interested in even trying to play the game and that it's unreasonable to expect a basic modicum of sincere effort. I reject the claim I’m expecting Aman level effort from everyone as a bad faith straw man. If it's unacceptable to expect basic sincere effort from everyone and that diminishes your enjoyment of the game, I'll point out my enjoyment of the game has gone into the negatives as well because no Villagr can be bothered to even try. How do you believe this should be resolved? Cajoling did not work. I will also say this: if everyone believes that "do whatever" is acceptable and expected and cannot be called out, I will take this as my play guidelines going forward. If everyone is clearly of the opinion that since Aman level play cannot be in good faith required of all, nothing need be required of all, I will remember this and apply that, starting from this Month onwards. I am tired of trying to hold a standard people can't remotely be bothered to and believe that the only way people will be incentivised to change is if they discover they dislike this standard after all.

I'm done here and will not respond to further goading. 

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

17 minutes ago, Archer said:

I'll refer the issue to @Devotary of Spontaneity and move on.

Please do not continue this discussion in thread. If necessary, it can be moved to PM which will not count for tuition purposes. In general, players who have emotional concerns, especially relating to other players, should bring that to the IM's attention before it goes in thread.

[The Unknown Order he/him]

6 hours ago, Kasimir said:

the point is making a discussed, reasoned vote rather than kneejerking to Szeth or at least trying to think it through.

Kas, Szeth was a discussed, reasoned vote, even if it wasn't up to your level of reason. Not everything is perfect, not every exe is perfect. It's a known (at least to me, and you've acknowledged it) problem of yours in near flipless games, you default trust anyone that doesn't flip. The chances of having an elim in our expelled players right now is so high, if they're somehow not, then they deserve the win. Maybe Archer is e, then we can expel him and work from there.

6 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Edited to add: @The Known Novel - Second question for you. You don't have Sart and myself on the list. Why?

Because I kinda forgot about Sart honestly. Kinda think in a failed kill world, STINK is more likely than Sart, but in a withheld kill world, Sart is more likely than STINK. As for you, I wasn't making a full player list list, and that's the only way you'd be on there. You've hit every single v!tell and habit, and have done things that make no sense as elim. I'd probably exe the GMs before you in this game. 

6 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Question for you: how many times does a scan fail before it seems weird or as though the player is just buying time?

More than 10%? Why would e!Archer be trying to buy time, then not even put in the kill? He can fake these scans easy while he kills, so why isn't he?

6 hours ago, Kasimir said:

What if we refused to expel anyone today. I know Wilson is gonna hate me for this, but...

Then e!Archer makes Master, potentially with e!Ash, and we've got a bad problem on our hands. Let's have this discussion after Archer is dealt with.

6 hours ago, Kasimir said:

A. You think Archer's scans can be trusted
B. You think Ash should be allowed to go hog-wild with Plum Bob.|
C. You think Sart or STINK should be allowed to go hog-wild with Linguistic Analysis or whichever capstone Sart is trying for.

Kinda, but not too much, I'll be much more willing to lend credence to Archer’s scans once he's expelled.

I kinda think so.

I do not think so. I think letting Ash make Master was a mistake (which I'll own up to, I wasn't paying enough attention or thinking everything through enough. As it is, e!Ash is a serious problem and we definitely shouldn't allow anyone else to get Master.

Edit: @Devotary of Spontaneity, you can tell me if this is the same discussion and therefore needs to stop, but I think it's separate enough that I'm going to continue it.

Edited August 11, 2023 by The Known Novel

[Wonko the Sane he/him]

So, from the scan results, we have a guaranteed Skindancer in [Archer, Steel, Kas]. If it’s Steel — which I think is by far the most likely option — we’ve won the game. There are at least two separate villagers capable of hiring Assassins in that instance, meaning that whether the remaining Dancer is Stink or Ash, we have them dead to rights.

If it’s Archer, I agree there’s some level of concern if he’s allowed to make Master. For that reason, my vote is on Archer, Archer. I find this the least likely option of the three, but it’s worth prepping for, as it’s the one we’re most in danger of losing.

E!Kas is a tricky case. It would invalidate the TJ scan, meaning TJ could have been innocent. Indeed, if we’re dealing with E!Kas, he’s done a phenomenal job overall at manipulating the village this game. That said, it’s really hard to imagine E!Kas is in anything approaching a winning position. The only ones I can imagine include E!Archer, so it doesn’t change an Archer exe as the best play.

The worst possible world, as I see it, is E!Archer, E!Kas, E!Ash, going for a field destruction win. That would explain Kas’s push for a no-exe cycle, and would go some way to explaining the lack of night kills. But that world is still best covered by an Archer exe, so my vote stands.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

@Wonko the Sane, no. Soonest is next turn if I’m lucky, otherwise start of next term.

Edit: Rules thing: you can’t pass coins, though contracts can functionally do the same thing on a delay.

Edited August 11, 2023 by Araris Valerian

[Kasimir he/him]

[TAG: DISCUSSION, 219 words]

Sorry Wonko. I'm willing to be talked out of it, but I think I'm willing to gamble on V!Archer at this point. I'm struggling to see E!Archer going to the extent of aggressively PMing everyone left with the results to try to get them in on it, mostly.

Steel Steel

FWIW, I roleblocked Ash last Night. Might be the reason behind the missing kill, IDK.

My other thought is that because if we're working with an E!Ash world, then Ash essentially controls three DP meaning that if we have votes on anyone else, Ash gets to decide if that player gets exed or not. I'm not certain that's control I'm willing to surrender to him.

Functionally I guess I can accept the pragmatics but I've never been fond of willingly exeing a player I believe is Village.

Edited to add: But how the frith does a TJ/Ash/Steel team miss a kill?????

Edited to add 2:

Actually.

@Sart, @The Known Novel - you have the dubious honour of inhabiting my Village reads at this point. I'm aware of Wonko's opinion. Will defer to whether you want to roll the dice or not.

I still have my V!Archer reasoning but I honestly kind of struggle with the missing kill in a TJ/Ash/Steel world and that's the main reason I'd relook Archer.

Edited August 12, 2023 by Kasimir

[Mat he/him]

Exeing likely v Archer instinctively is kind of bonkers but if we think we have enough time to rid the chance of e!Archer!Master I think that’s a good use of time. Any e!Master is a bad thing, we might already have one, let’s not get two. Archer self voting here I think is a good look though.

[Archer he/him]

For the record, the same argument applies to an e!Kas world where I've no idea why he'd skip kills. I can see him not killing me because I had immovable protection, but there was other people he could and would murder 

 

I can just not submit EP today so I won't ascend to the position of Master, but you have no reason to trust that I'll follow through with that. I've been trying to figure out if I can rig getting Public Lashing so I can't elevate perhaps with the help of DP distributior Ash, but I don't think it's possible. As a matter of trust building, I think I'll pass on submitting EP anyway, but I'm cool with whatever order we go with. Just make sure Steel dies in the near future and then it's almost impossible to mess this up 

[Kasimir he/him]

[TAG: DISCUSSION, 235 words]

23 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Exeing likely v Archer instinctively is kind of bonkers but if we think we have enough time to rid the chance of e!Archer!Master I think that’s a good use of time. Any e!Master is a bad thing, we might already have one, let’s not get two. Archer self voting here I think is a good look though.

It is. The one place I can see this line of reasoning work has to do with the difficulty of getting rid of a Master as none of us have Namers in our pockets, and my EP is in Physicking, which Does Not Kill so I am just a pacifist this game apparently. (Agreed people just have to take this on faith, but given my commitment to method acting at this point, it's at least not too far a stretch.)

So keeping in mind that STINK is probably on Master track with the +5 EP bonus as well, we could be looking down the barrel of needing to shoot three Masters which is a bit more kayana.

(I'll note this gets easier in a V!Archer world because of Banned Books but YMMV.)

Time-wise...IDK. Assassins are a delayed kill, for one. If - I am not saying I know this for sure - if we are considering TJ/Ash/Steel, who's to say the missing actions/kill issues weren't from, e.g. TJ making a gram and passing it to Ash, using all his free slots?

Basically I don't think we can take it for granted that Ash can be killed, much less in good time.

23 hours ago, Archer said:

I can just not submit EP today so I won't ascend to the position of Master, but you have no reason to trust that I'll follow through with that. I've been trying to figure out if I can rig getting Public Lashing so I can't elevate perhaps with the help of DP distributior Ash, but I don't think it's possible. As a matter of trust building, I think I'll pass on submitting EP anyway, but I'm cool with whatever order we go with. Just make sure Steel dies in the near future and then it's almost impossible to mess this up 

Comment in a PM.

But I am not necessarily sure this is the best solution.

Edited to add: If you think Ash is E, then fundamentally there's no reason to assume he'll play ball.

Edited August 12, 2023 by Kasimir

[Ashbringer he/him]

I had a 1 turn delay between when I hit 15 EP and when I hit Master. If you’re at less than 15 right now, you’ll need two turns.

[Wonko the Sane he/him]

17 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

My other thought is that because if we're working with an E!Ash world, then Ash essentially controls three DP meaning that if we have votes on anyone else, Ash gets to decide if that player gets exed or not. I'm not certain that's control I'm willing to surrender to him.

What? Why vote Steel, then? You have literally just surrendered that control by moving from a unanimous lynch to a contested one.

More to the point, why in the name of God's burned and blackened body would you want to waste time to exe Steel now? If Steel is the last Elim, then we can deal with him at our leisure; literally any one of us could 1v1 him. If he is an Elim, but not the last one, we need to be focusing all our efforts on finding his active allies. There is quite literally no world where a Steel exe increases the odds of village victory (excepting the possibility that he suddenly becomes active, I suppose).

Plus, a V!Archer exe would cost the village less than any other Village lynch, as he can continue doing his scanning work from expulsion. The only loss is his vote and the long-term possibility of Banned Books.

You're doing a very good job of making that E!Archer, E!Kas, E!Ash timeline seem more credible, Kas.

Everyone else, I've got a list on my computer at home of some evidence against Kas I've put together over the last few days; he's softly contradicted himself a number of times, which you could argue is paranoia and frustration, but I'm increasingly unsure of that. I'll post my findings when I get home this evening.

Please note I'm not advocating a Kas exe! There are no dangerous E!Kas teams that don't also include E!Archer.

[Archer he/him]

10 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

I had a 1 turn delay between when I hit 15 EP and when I hit Master. If you’re at less than 15 right now, you’ll need two turns.

Okay so I got my wires crossed a bit. I have 15EP and will become a Master next turn. But what I was remembering was a caveat that if I lose some EP to DP, I won't get the promotion. 

V!Ash and e!Ash's incentives align here, I think? Me being a Master is scary to both of them. E!Ash is probably more likely to let it slide because he's stuck playing the social game now, but unexable, hard to NK me is inconvenient. And people would wonder why he didn't file DP against me, which has social consequences. 

Edit: where was this e!Kas evidence before I slept on it smh. I'm already on the V!Kas train, not that it matters since you'd need e!me in that theorized group so my perspective doesn't matter so much 

Edited August 11, 2023 by Archer

[Kasimir he/him]

[TAG: DISCUSSION, 1661 words]

22 hours ago, Wonko the Sane said:

What? Why vote Steel, then? You have literally just surrendered that control by moving from a unanimous lynch to a contested one.

...You forget I have R&L, which enables me to Soothe two complaints if I must. And this is halfway through the cycle. I think it's more than fair to advance an alternative wagon - consolidation can wait for later. You're assuming this is my final vote and it's not - this is as much me asking people if they're cool with this as trying to advocate my current line of thought.

22 hours ago, Wonko the Sane said:

More to the point, why in the name of God's burned and blackened body would you want to waste time to exe Steel now? If Steel is the last Elim, then we can deal with him at our leisure; literally any one of us could 1v1 him. If he is an Elim, but not the last one, we need to be focusing all our efforts on finding his active allies. There is quite literally no world where a Steel exe increases the odds of village victory (excepting the possibility that he suddenly becomes active, I suppose).

Because we can't exe Ash? Because I legit think his ally is Ash, and Ash is unexeable. I don't believe there's much of an E!STINK world. There is no reasonable world in which E!Sart without E!Archer, and I struggle to see E!Sart accepting a three Turn roleblock just for Village cred.

• Ash's immediate Szeth votes felt wrong.
• Ash's NKA excusing TJ - my mind still goes back to this repeatedly. I feel he slipped TJ out a bit too quickly.
• STINK being willing to repeatedly post write-up messages despite TKN clearly saying alignment could be scanned from them.

Like...sure, do you want me to vote Ash? I can do that, but it'd do nothing. You're @ing me about this but why in the name of God's blackened and burned body wouldn't I? I legit guilted out of a game because I was knowingly exeing a player I thought was Village and that was the game right before this. I have strong issues with trying to push players I think are Village so why the hells would I ever want to vote in <Sart, STINK>?

Archer I don't have such a strong V read on and am willing to gamble, but that's about it.

22 hours ago, Wonko the Sane said:

Plus, a V!Archer exe would cost the village less than any other Village lynch, as he can continue doing his scanning work from expulsion. The only loss is his vote and the long-term possibility of Banned Books.

I'm concerned about losing tempo, mostly - I am not willing to believe Ash doesn't have a gram (remember, TJ had two votes missing, and TJ claiming to make a Bloodless was always nonsensical.) And if Ash did make bone tar, then that's potential for a mass kill right there. So I want to vote the player I believe is Evil, from Archer's scan, and then to go push for an Ash kill next round even if we'd have to wait. That's where I'm coming from.

22 hours ago, Wonko the Sane said:

You're doing a very good job of making that E!Archer, E!Kas, E!Ash timeline seem more credible, Kas.

Spoiler

Edited to add: 

Let me put it this way - if it's E!Ash, which is where my credences are at the moment, then every Turn we spend exeing a Villager, we are allowing him to fulfill his wincon. All he has to do is to outlast us. Do I believe V!Archer enough to maybe want to just go for Steel? Sure. From my point of view, given the fact I know I'm Village, Steel is a guaranteed hit. Given I'm pessimistic enough to expect taking Ash out to be a real pain in the pula, I don't want to paranoia lynch and give him extra tempo.

Is it a paranoia lynch? IDK. I go back and forth about Archer. That's literally the point of me asking people in the thread - because - surprise! when people don't want to discuss, I start talking myself into and out of things.

This is literally why I kept begging for a discussion partner, and ngl Wonko, if you spent that time logging everything I said instead of trying to keep discussion up, that's on you.

Edited to add 2:

Quote

Mat TKN Steel Archer Ash TJ Araris

Now for the tricky part.

Archer is the only other player who actually acknowledged JNV D1 outside of Vote Counts and things. I don't know if that excludes him from doing an NK on them, but it's being noted because its all there is to note.

There's also the note that in the last MR, Mat and TJ were Elim and shot JNV on C2 (with Mat making the final call on that). That's been brought up in thread before. By Archer. At least twice.

What do I make of that? Not entirely sure. The paranoid part of me wonders if that means Archer-TJ are E-E. But for NKA, I'll leave that rabbit hole alone. Archer isn't out of the woods on this case though.

TKN* Steel Archer Ash Araris

Think that's as far as I can go. Asterisk on TKN that they mentioned wanting to ask JNV what they elevated in, but that could go either way. Also an asterisk on Araris (already expelled), Steel (inactive later but decently active M1), and Ash (solely because that's me and I'm not going for me) on who to not go for. I'd go for TKN as an ultimate target looking at only M1. 

[...]

Mat might become a discussion black hole, and their interactions with Archer are a bit noteworthy but mostly from Archer's side.

This is the part I dislike: Ash does NKA and TJ and Mat are slipped out, but mostly more time or focus on Archer, but in his conclusions, suddenly Mat comes up again. It just feels like a weird set of moves to be making.

Source post here.

Edited to add 3:

@The Known Novel - Weird thing to be asking, but as I think the logic of V!you is inescapable independent of Archer's alignment - and as you were the V player V!me tried to knowingly ML in LG95, care to back this up?

Edited to add 4:

22 hours ago, Wonko the Sane said:

There is quite literally no world where a Steel exe increases the odds of village victory (excepting the possibility that he suddenly becomes active, I suppose).

Honestly, sure, let me push back on this. Strictly-speaking, there is quite literally no world in which an exe on a Villager increases the odds of Village victory, since no matter what, as long as a Villager is getting exed, you are helping the SDs do their wincon for them.

Strictly speaking, it decreases the odds of Village victory. Now, you could definitely say that we can, in some worlds, mitigate this decrement or that it's an acceptable decrement to tank. But it's just really odd to want to @ me by saying that exeing an Elim doesn't increase the odds of a Village victory. Well...yeah, no crem, but it doesn't decrease it either, which an exe on a Villager most assuredly does: fewer actions, fewer resources with which to bring to bear on getting a kill because Ash cannot be ousted by any other means, and - you literally cannot deny that this is helping them winnow our numbers down since expulsion is part of their wincon too. That's one fewer player Ash has to kill.

Long story short, if I have strong V!credences on Sart, moderate on STINK, moderate on Archer (IDK, I will agree I go back and forth on Archer), it's logical for me to not want to go for anyone in that set, which leaves Steel as the primary push that makes sense for me. Ash is still unexeable.

I still think that if you wargame out a gram!Ash world, that's a real problem for us because it'll take three kills to end him for good, and unless there are multiple bodyguards, that's a lot of tempo we are losing.

Model it out for me, why don't you?

TO ANYONE WITH TLDR; SKIP EVERYTHING AND READ THIS BIT BELOW vvvvvv

Suppose:

-If none of us are in Imre right now (advise people not declare their status as TJ can still sabotage), the earliest we can stick an Assassin on Ash is next Turn.

-Recall that expelled students cannot target Ash. Ash is untouchable by an Assassin from an expelled student as long as he is on the University grounds. I'm going to highlight this as I don't think you really internalised that in the implied PM with Araris.

-I'm not saying there isn't real value in sticking one on him anyway to lock Imre off from him, but Ash can make bone tar, and he spent a previous Turn finishing a fire stop (claimed to me a while back) so he has nothing to fear from bone tar anyway.

-Now, if I'm wrong and Ash doesn't have a gram, we're fine, he goes down, and if the game doesn't end, sure, start squinting at STINK/Archer from my POV. As an aside, noting that Archer's scans don't leave him very much room to revise his beliefs on a player. I don't find that super compatible with what E!Archer wants because the only player he can coherently claim to revise on is me. Any other player will get him @ as a scanner who supposedly cleared them.

-If I'm right, and it's E!Ash and he has a gram, then it takes three kills to take him down. These kills have to be from enrolled students. I reserve my comments on who might have the $ to buy Assassins and note also that the more we buy them, the more the Assassin market price is probably going to increase, which puts them further out of reach for most of us.

-So let's game this out: let's suppose the most optimistic world: we can all buy Assassins and they all only cvost 30 talents.

Suppose we expel Archer. THis also assumes the student pool left is: <Sart, me, STINK, Archer.>

T3M2: We expel Archer. Free sabotage/kill. Suppose Sart goes down, as that's a low info kill. I note, you are now on two players left. Two fragile lives between the Village and SD victory.
T3M3: One of us goes to Imre and buys an Assassin. In this period, free sabotage/kill as Ash really doesn't have to fear us voting him out - it's bloody impossible. Free sabotage/kill. Suppose I go down.
T4M1: One of us goes to Imre and buys an Assassin. First hit on Ash. In this period, free sabotage/kill as Ash really doesn't have to fear us voting him out - it's bloody impossible. Suppose STINK goes down. Win for the SDs.
T4M2: One of us goes to Imre and buys an Assassin. Second hit on Ash.
T4M3: One of us goes to Imre and buys an Assassin. Third hit on Ash.

None of these considers worlds in which E!TJ again makes a second gram for E!Ash, which we won't know about because, hey, he's now expelled so the voting telltale is now gone.

This does presume I'm fundamentally right that it's E!Ash rather than E!STINK. I am pointing out that you kind of have to make a hard decision here on E!Archer or V!Archer, in my view. Unless you want to hope that there are no grams, the time delay with Assassination fundamentally means we are going to be repeatedly caught out. Our tempo limit is tight. This assumes we can reliably access Assassins. If you can buy > 1 Assassin in a cycle, then our odds are better. But I am directly saying that unless my projections are wrong - and I invite you to show me how, because I'd love to be wrong - then we don't really have that much of a leeway, and that's why I was so frustrated with the tempo lost on Szeth. (I'll note here that my unarticulated view is Szeth only works on a four man team and that shouldn't be missing kills.)

In an E!Archer world, V!TJ, and then the gram worry is moot. In a V!Archer world, it categorically has to be E!TJ, and we know TJ was making something. In his shoes, I'd do it too - what do I have to lose? I'm already out and so I can't help my team win, so I'm going to gun it and see if I can make my unexeable teammate tanky enough to win.

Edited August 12, 2023 by Kasimir

[STINK he/him]

Guys I think at some point irrergardless of paranoia or anything you just have to admit if Kas was not village why has he done anything he's done like full stop

If the games over and he's evil sue me but like that's even more over the top than the paranoid world we're already in

[Kasimir he/him]

[TAG: DISCUSSION, 277 words]

22 hours ago, Kasimir said:

(I'll note here that my unarticulated view is Szeth only works on a four man team and that shouldn't be missing kills.)

Sorry, opposite - my unarticulated view is Szeth doesn't work on a four man team (as that shouldn't be missing kills anyway), so this is indicative in my view that he wasn't a hit. Am tired.

Edited to add: One more question. Why does an E!Ash, E!Archer, E!me world go for the field destruction victory? That's literally nonsense on stilts - I claimed a protect and roleblock on two consecutive cycles, that's literally time in which I could be killing and narrowing the numbers since pretty much no one would have roleblocked me when I was roleblocking or protecting. In the world the three of us are Evil together, Archer could just as easily afford an Assassin since he isn't really scanning, or a gram on Ash. Why waste time getting fancy with field destruction when we can just kill Sart and STINK and call it a day? 

STINK doesn't have protection, and Sart was vulnerable too. If we were Evil together we could've straightforwardly won in the last Turn between that and the fact I have a total of a five vote swing due to Soothing (two votes) and votejacking. We'd just steamroller in that world tbh. The only way E!Archer and E!me work I think is if we have an E!partner who is dead and even that's pushing it - just kill Sart and Ash, leave STINK alive and finish him off with my voteswing. What's STINK gonna do in that world? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Edited to add 2: Noting as well that TJ didn't remotely try to pass the Bloodless, which IMO suggests it was - to use his favourite term - Village appeasement.

Edited August 12, 2023 by Kasimir

[Wonko the Sane he/him]

 

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Sorry, opposite - my unarticulated view is Szeth doesn't work on a four man team (as that shouldn't be missing kills anyway), so this is indicative in my view that he wasn't a hit. Am tired.

Edited to add: One more question. Why does an E!Ash, E!Archer, E!me world go for the field destruction victory? That's literally nonsense on stilts - I claimed a protect and roleblock on two consecutive cycles, that's literally time in which I could be killing and narrowing the numbers since pretty much no one would have roleblocked me when I was roleblocking or protecting. In the world the three of us are Evil together, Archer could just as easily afford an Assassin since he isn't really scanning, or a gram on Ash. Why waste time getting fancy with field destruction when we can just kill Sart and STINK and call it a day? 

STINK doesn't have protection, and Sart was vulnerable too. If we were Evil together we could've straightforwardly won in the last Turn between that and the fact I have a total of a five vote swing due to Soothing (two votes) and votejacking. We'd just steamroller in that world tbh. The only way E!Archer and E!me work I think is if we have an E!partner who is dead and even that's pushing it - just kill Sart and Ash, leave STINK alive and finish him off with my voteswing. What's STINK gonna do in that world? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Edited to add 2: Noting as well that TJ didn't remotely try to pass the Bloodless, which IMO suggests it was - to use his favourite term - Village appeasement.

My thinking was the team decided to swing for the hardmode goal early on, and since that hypothetical team is still very much in control of the game, you saw no reason to change tack. That said,

1 hour ago, STINK said:

Guys I think at some point irrergardless of paranoia or anything you just have to admit if Kas was not village why has he done anything he's done like full stop

If the games over and he's evil sue me but like that's even more over the top than the paranoid world we're already in

You've got a point. I was just isolating the fact that we know for certain {Archer, Kas, Steel} has an elim, and considering the scenarios there. If it's Steel, the game's in the bag; I don't share Kas's anxiety about turtle!Ash being capable of winning solo. So I wasn't really concerning myself with that, and was instead thinking about the outside-chance alternatives, and trying to prep for them. But E!Kas is actually REALLY long odds, enough that I really shouldn't be entertaining it; sorry.

I still don't think we should be exeing Steel. There's literally no world where it helps us. We should either try and use the exe productively, or skip it altogether on the outside odds of V!Steel. Basically, exeing Steel has a very, very small chance of hurting the village, but and absolutely zero chance of helping.

EDIT: Oh, and everyone who doesn't have a REALLY good use for your EP should put at least 3 of it into Alchemy.

Edited August 11, 2023 by Wonko the Sane

[Kasimir he/him]

7 minutes ago, Wonko the Sane said:

EDIT: Oh, and everyone who doesn't have a REALLY good use for your EP should put at least 3 of it into Alchemy.

Agreed.

7 minutes ago, Wonko the Sane said:

I still don't think we should be exeing Steel. There's literally no world where it helps us. We should either try and use the exe productively, or skip it altogether on the outside odds of V!Steel. Basically, exeing Steel has a very, very small chance of hurting the village, but and absolutely zero chance of helping.

How is the exe on literally any other player productive, if one believes E!Ash and E!Steel?

[Wonko the Sane he/him]

Just now, Kasimir said:

Agreed.

How is the exe on literally any other player productive, if one believes E!Ash and E!Steel?

If you are dead, 100% certain of E!Ash and E!Steel? It's not. But I'm working very hard not to tunnel here. I don't want to commit to a guess more than we have to, and I especially don't want to commit a resource that doesn't even help in the E!Ash/E!Steel scenario. Also, you've failed to account for at least two things in your wargame; I'll send them to you in PM.

[Kasimir he/him]

5 minutes ago, Wonko the Sane said:

If you are dead, 100% certain of E!Ash and E!Steel? It's not. But I'm working very hard not to tunnel here. I don't want to commit to a guess more than we have to, and I especially don't want to commit a resource that doesn't even help in the E!Ash/E!Steel scenario. Also, you've failed to account for at least two things in your wargame; I'll send them to you in PM.

Sure, I'm not 100% certain, but I'm not really about to vote a player I don't think is Evil. I still have a Village read on STINK so I don't currently feel like killing him just in case he turns out to be Evil. I'm not interested in paranoia-lynching rather than going with my reads, so Steel's still the option for me. I can't stop y'all if you want to vote Archer, I'm just not convinced that's the right answer here as we don't have sufficient leeway to mess around.

Edited to add: I don't have to be 100% certain, I just have to have moderate credences.

Edited August 11, 2023 by Kasimir

[Ashbringer he/him]

4 hours ago, Kasimir said:

This is the part I dislike: Ash does NKA and TJ and Mat are slipped out, but mostly more time or focus on Archer, but in his conclusions, suddenly Mat comes up again. It just feels like a weird set of moves to be making.

Just because it feels a bit wrong to see so many E!Ash scenarios and not comment on them - yes, I agree both got out quick. But I'm still standing by that it's unlikely Mat or TJ would sabotage JNV immediately. Archer repeatedly bringing it up didn't sit well with me, and no one else had pointed it out, so I mentioned it, but I didn't have any evidence for Archer and didn't have enough time to look for any and still talk about Drake's kill at all. I mentioned Mat again because that was the same turn he was expelled, and largely based on a snowball I didn't have time to understand. TJ being Elim makes sense, but I'm not going to suddenly say I thought it was him the whole time.

Another thing - expelled players can't target me. Unless I'm mistaken, that includes TJ. And, unless I'm mistaken, I don't have time to reach Master this quickly and still have visited Imre any time recently. So I'm not even sure if E!me could have gotten a Gram from E!TJ.

For what it's worth, I don't have a Gram. Sure, E!me could be lying, but from what I can see either someone sends an Assassin at me and it works one way or another, or I survive and I'm pretty much confirmed to be evil. (Or the Elims could pass me a Gram/Bodyguard/something as a ploy, which would be funny, but if they're in a position to waste resources that then they've probably already won.)

[Sart he/him]

Well, we're in a tight spot. There must be one Skindancer (at least) left at the University. I'll be real with you guys. I think this whole operation security nonsense is bunk. There's only 6 players left who can vote, and you've included most of them in your PMs. Further, one of them has been stone cold inactive this entire game. In addition, there are many ways to scan PMs in this game. So, let's just lay cards on the table, yes?

Here are the roles of the players left alive, or at least what's been claimed to me.

• Kasimir: Rhetoric & Logic 2, Medica 1
• Steeldancer: ??? 1
• Archer: Archives 3
• Ashbringer: Master Alchemy
• STINK: ??? Linguistics 1
• Sart: Medica 2, Linguistics 1

So, uh, what the crem has STINK STINK been investing in? Let's get that out of the way first.

[Kasimir he/him]

1 minute ago, Sart said:

Well, we're in a tight spot. There must be one Skindancer (at least) left at the University. I'll be real with you guys. I think this whole operation security nonsense is bunk. There's only 6 players left who can vote, and you've included most of them in your PMs. Further, one of them has been stone cold inactive this entire game. In addition, there are many ways to scan PMs in this game. So, let's just lay cards on the table, yes?

Here are the roles of the players left alive, or at least what's been claimed to me.

• Kasimir: Rhetoric & Logic 2, Medica 1
• Steeldancer: ??? 1
• Archer: Archives 3
• Ashbringer: Master Alchemy
• STINK: ??? Linguistics 1
• Sart: Medica 2, Linguistics 1

So, uh, what the crem has STINK STINK been investing in? Let's get that out of the way first.

STINK claimed Linguistics 3 and has proved to have both Linguistics 2 and 3.

Steel has Archives 1 because Archer started with Archives but did not elevate. That part is easily worked out and if he's Village, implying E!Archer, makes the inactivity more galling. 

[Sart he/him]

3 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

STINK claimed Linguistics 3 and has proved to have both Linguistics 2 and 3.

Steel has Archives 1 because Archer started with Archives but did not elevate. That part is easily worked out and if he's Village, implying E!Archer, makes the inactivity more galling. 

Okay, thank you. Next question. How much EP does STINK have in Linguistics?